Русский корабль - иди нахуй

[Parliament 14112]

I agree with your 2nd part.  But western Europe being what it is, you gotta worry they'll chicken out.

[Auto Driller 2504]

37 minutes ago, Parliament said:

I agree with your 2nd part.  But western Europe being what it is, you gotta worry they'll chicken out.

You’re right. Macron has been desperately searching for a way to surrender since before the invasion began.

[RDCanecutter 26239]

9 hours ago, Parliament said:

He called out Alabama, one of the most right wing (nttawwt), anti-Communist States in our Union.  Probably shouldn't do that.

If he got that emotional about one mercenary, nobody tell him that Missy Mae McRae from Pike County, Bama, has helped send a few gifts Russia's way.

https://www.newsnationnow.com/us-news/southeast/javelin-missiles-used-by-ukrainian-army-were-made-in-alabama/

[Schulz2.0 28752]

 

[atomheartbevo 89362]

3 hours ago, dimyh said:

Unfortunately its not going to be an immediate deterioration and I'm still worried that EU/US doesn't have the appetite to keep up sanctions for a conclusive victory.

Thankfully Putin is making it easy for the EU to keep up the sanctions by cutting more and more oil & gas to the EU, and arguably cutting it to some of the major countries who might have lost their appetite over time and with the threat looming of Russia cutting said oil and gas in the winter.

By going ahead and cutting supplies now instead of this fall when temps go down, he’s removing arrows from his quiver and making it easy for the EU to cut more and more ties with Russia, and he’s giving the EU time to find alternate sources.  Once they develop alternate sources (US, Canada, Egypt, Israel, etc.) they won’t go back to Russia for a long time.  They want stability, not being under threat of Putin’s whims. 

You’d think he’d want to use his resources to keep them placated and make a shitload of money off of them.  That would lessen their appetite to keep sanctions going.

[atomheartbevo 89362]

[atomheartbevo 89362]

Gary Kasparov has been telling everybody for a while to listen to what Putin has been saying for years, and not what propagandists, sympathizers,  and conspiracy nuts claim he is thinking.  Putin is telling everybody out loud what he intends to do. He’s saying the quiet parts out loud.
 

 

[dimyh 1874]

4 hours ago, Auto Driller said:

I don’t think there’s going to be any appetite to reduce the sanctions. How would the West benefit from that besides a possible (slight) reduction in energy costs?

I'm basing my assumption that once Russia's offensive fizzles out that they are going to sue for peace with territorial claims for whatever clay that their orcs are currently looting. I think they are very desperate to come out of this with Luhansk, Donetsk, and bonus prize of Kherson oblasts. If Ukraine can't mount a successive counter offensive and this war becomes a stalemate through winter I could see Germany, France, and Italy start clamoring for a peace settlement which could include loosening of the sanctions.

[Schulz2.0 28752]

Really long thread

 

[dimyh 1874]

1 hour ago, Schulz2.0 said:

 

I think Putin lost his strategic goals the moment he sent troops across the border. Even if they had mopped up in a couple of weeks his strategic goal to rebuild the USSR 2.0 was going to be a long time failure. The results would have been a regalvanized NATO, a pissed Ukrainian populace that would have to be policed for years, plus all the other sunk costs for the war. All to have the same inevitable economic collapse vs the west. What we are fighting for now is just trying to accelerate the decline of an aging empire and making a point that naked power grabs are not to be tolerated.

The Russian casualties are definitely encouraging. This is going to boil down to the Battle of the Benches. Whoever can organize and train up the JV team is going to make the difference. My concern the past few weeks is just not hearing enough about the UA reinforcements. And that their most experienced front lines may have getting ground down hard too. If we can start to see consistent gains in Kherson then I could be more confident, it's just tough to be patient when people's lives are on the line.

 

[InkaUtexas 25426]

Again, thank you all for the postings and damn solid analysis. 

Here is mine. This war continues for years. Putin thought it would be easy, but remember he is a KGB hack. He hates the west and will never lose that. I don't think the Generals will launch. They know, Putin does not care. 

Russian army goes into attrition with minor offensives, but it becomes a defensive war. Something they will lose if the US and NATO keep supporting the UAF. I mean 8 HIMARS ain't shit on a front that large, but it can change a battle. So think smart, move your stuff around and bleed the Russians. At the troop level, forget about equipment, what matters is decimating their personnel. 

Ukraine can do this. We can support. I have been watching some of the videos of their tactical recon groups. These guys have less equipment than an average hunter in texas. Med Kits, night vision. I sent over a few pieces of kit I no longer need. Suggest we all go look at our gear and see what they could use. A backpack, some medical gear, solar chargers so troops can charge their phones and call home. hell just a good note. 

Fuck the bunker dwarf. I am not dealing with Ukraine's issues, but my friends, we are going to start feeling the pain in other countries. It sucks. 

Edited June 19, 2022 by InkaUtexas

[The Dog 43771]

 

[The Dog 43771]

This is the large stockpile that Ukraine destroyed in Donbas - so large it stops Russia’s offensive.

[atomheartbevo 89362]

Fucking evil and desperate.  And sounds like they deported these people because leaving them in Ukraine runs the risk of losing them in a Ukrainian counter-offensive.

 

[atomheartbevo 89362]

Keep in mind they are working off of satellite imagery and intercepted comms

[atomheartbevo 89362]

Ukrainian Meme Forces at work

 

 

 

[Nivek 16808]

You’re right. Macron has been desperately searching for a way to surrender since before the invasion began.

He is playing the role of good cop.

[The Dog 43771]

Appears Russia has reached a culmination point in Donetsk. 

Edited June 19, 2022 by The Dog

[CHIEF 5057]

Igor Girkin saying the Russians have gotten themselves in a bit of a pickle?

CHIEF

[atomheartbevo 89362]

Would be cool if we could help Moldova kick out the Russians.  Not sure Russia could help them at this point.  Those Harpoons will make them skittish with naval stuff.

 

[atomheartbevo 89362]

 

[InkaUtexas 25426]

Comment on the last two posts. 

1- Would, cuz I am a thirsty bastard. 

2- Last time I saw shit like that was Sendero murals in Peru. Agree, WTF. Well guess if your army cannot fight, might as well make them painters. 

Happy Father's Day to all those Ukrainian dads on the front lines. Fuck Putin. 

[Auto Driller 2504]

It seems to have dawned on the Russian command that Sveredonetsk holds little strategic value. They’ve had their thumbs up their asses for weeks while Ukraine started their move on Kherson. I imagine it’s not going to be easy to try to reposition all of those forces to mount an effective defense.

[BearSchlong 8076]

Just had a lengthy father's day video call from my soldier from the Poland/Ukraine border.  We will be smoking a brisket and having a long talk within 45 days.  He admitted that he's seen some shit beyond his wildest imagination and that it's going to take a while to mentally unpack some of the things he witnessed.

[InkaUtexas 25426]

Just now, BearSchlong said:

Just had a lengthy father's day video call from my soldier from the Poland/Ukraine border.  We will be smoking a brisket and having a long talk within 45 days.  He admitted that he's seen some shit beyond his wildest imagination and that it's going to take a while to mentally unpack some of the things he witnessed.

Next time you talk to him please tell him thank you. He will be fine, and if he ever needs to talk, I know some bad ass people who would be happy to discuss and assist. 

[atomheartbevo 89362]

Now about the nukes….

 

[MillerEP 30339]

 

[MillerEP 30339]

 

[dimyh 1874]

45 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

 

 

Well I give them this much, the Ruskies believe in truth in advertising: we are going to kill your men and steal your children.

They probably have a mural around back showing what they do with the women.

 

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[dimyh 1874]

Just in time for my Sunday walk - new Perun video doing a deep dive on the economies. Lots of tidbits in here but in summary both sides can keep this war running financially for quite a while. 

What's interesting is that the new Ladamobiles are coming out but with no automated seatbelts, airbags, other electronic features, etc. So we can look forward to more entertaining dashcam footage!

 

 

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[InkaUtexas 25426]

1 minute ago, MillerEP said:

 

Ok Surly. I said this above. Who do we have over there? I have some solid kit I can send over. I can outfit at least 1 troop including some nice Adidas GSG-9 boots that are brand new. I am sure this group could outfit a squad. Lets just put longhorn patches on it. 

[atomheartbevo 89362]

That Russian…

that’s some dedication to Nazi Germany

[MillerEP 30339]

 

 

[MillerEP 30339]

Kherson region, hail correction

[atomheartbevo 89362]

 

[Rimbo 25752]

1 hour ago, atomheartbevo said:

Would be cool if we could help Moldova kick out the Russians.  Not sure Russia could help them at this point.  Those Harpoons will make them skittish with naval stuff.

 

'sup.

[atomheartbevo 89362]

 

[InkaUtexas 25426]

Furk.... One of my biggest fears in an armored vehicle or a gunship are fucked bridges. Lost some good friends in Bosnia in this same type of wreck. 

 

[Bevo 13493]

2 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Would be cool if we could help Moldova kick out the Russians.  Not sure Russia could help them at this point.  Those Harpoons will make them skittish with naval stuff.

 

 

[InkaUtexas 25426]

Update for any of the hunters on this thread. Tuesday I should have a US address where they are collecting gear for individual troops. My idea is Adopt a Grunt. 

Monday I have a few friends coming over and we are going to make individual medical kits with some of the shit I have stored. Specific request was for pouches, backpacks, boots and summer weight camo. 

Will pass on the address when I get it. Verified source who has been cited on this thread. 

Anyone got any extra longhorn patches or stickers? Would love to see them on a UA troop. 

[956 Worldwide 34314]

On 6/18/2022 at 6:14 PM, atomheartbevo said:

 

I want to come to this analysis, because it’s extremely important for understanding the limitations we are facing in trying to arm Ukraine— while at the same time I am not sure that his conclusions are completely accurate even if his diagnoses is.

The unfolding war in Ukraine is bizarre— a non-nuclear serious military squaring off against a nuclear armed great/regional power, with constrained assistance from a nuclear superalliance.  Putin is resistant to dipping into his nuke arsenal because he thinks he can win conventionally and is hesitant to shatter the first use norm.  The terrain and doctrine of both militaries trend to long-haul, high intensity warfare.

It is difficult to see any scenario where the U.S./Alliance squares off in a hot war over territory with the only near-peer competitors: Russia and China— that does not either get turned off quick one way or another or go nuclear before industrial bases come into play. There really isn’t. Taiwan would be an an access denial air and sea battle and if China gets a beachhead and supply chain in place— it’s over.  Russia on NATO territory is either hammered back in the opening rounds or the nukes start flying. That hasn’t changed from the Cold War at least. 
 

So it’s entirely rational for the West to focus on a different way of war and industrial base, as our whole game plan is just to be such a tough nut that no one dares to step over the line.  I do not see high-intensity warfare between nuclear powers as realistic in the future. Which puts us in a tough spot when it comes to arming the Ukrainians for that kind of extended fight. 
 

Sorry for long posting. 

[atomheartbevo 89362]

Kazakhstans comments were not appreciated by Putin 

 

[InkaUtexas 25426]

4 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Kazakhstans comments were not appreciated by Putin 

 

Ya mean so a coup is coming in another Stan? Imagine if all the SSR's said fuck it, and went full Ukraine? Russia would be so fucked. 

As was just posted above, we are walking a razor's edge on this one. No nukes is good, but at what point does Russia go full Russia? Fuck it, packing a back to send over. will be my third and this one is designed so a dad in the Ukraine can be a bit when at the front. 

[atomheartbevo 89362]

1 hour ago, InkaUtexas said:

Ya mean so a coup is coming in another Stan? Imagine if all the SSR's said fuck it, and went full Ukraine? Russia would be so fucked. 

If Chechnya went all 1990s on Russia right now, Russia couldn't do shit to rein them in.

1 hour ago, InkaUtexas said:

As was just posted above, we are walking a razor's edge on this one. No nukes is good, but at what point does Russia go full Russia? 

If you're talking nukes, they don't.  The time for that was when they were trying to encircle Kyiv.

And even then, they don't.  If Russia used nukes, all of the sanctions we are currently levying against Russia would be expanded to countries still doing lots of business with Russia, namely China and India.  China and India's support of Russia would probably end before sanctions were levied against them (especially since India wouldn't want Pakistan getting any ideas about nukes, and China wouldn't want India getting the same ideas).  Without China and India, Russia is completely finished and isolated.

And how would Putin sell that to the Russian public?  A Special Military Operation that, for 110+ days, Putin's mouthpieces have been selling on nightly state TV as a success, all of the sudden escalated to nukes?  The Russian public, even if they (at least the boomers) don't quite understand everything, are having to deal with the fallout from sanctions and trying to understand why Europe/etc. all of the sudden hate their guts.  I think they know that nukes would ramp that hatred up to 11.

So for the time being, it's going to be leveling cities the old-fashioned way, with banned munitions.

[AUS-97HORN 11654]

7 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

And how would Putin sell that to the Russian public?  A Special Military Operation that, for 110+ days, Putin's mouthpieces have been selling on nightly state TV as a success, all of the sudden escalated to nukes?

Dude,

I can explain and sell that to the Russian public in 2 fucking sentences: 

The Americans supplied the Nazi Regime in Ukraine with nuclear weapons, which they deployed on our valiant Russian Army, I was forced to respond in kind and have Nuked Ukraine off the fucking map, Glory to Russia

 

truth in Russia right now is every fucking bit of 1984's version of realspeak.