Русский корабль - иди нахуй

[atomheartbevo 89362]

Interesting thread

 

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18 minutes ago, AUS-97HORN said:

truth in Russia right now is every fucking bit of 1984's version of realspeak. 

VPN usage in Russia is extremely high right now - the youths are at least trying to find out the truth.

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Been mentioned before, but Russia keeps on taking pages out of Nazi Germany's playbook, and just looting the shit out of Ukraine's art/museums/etc., with the resulting loot probably ending up in one of Putin's palaces, or those of his oligarch buddies.

https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/russia-pulling-off-massive-art-022522803.html

 

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Putin's 3-day war has lasted long enough for Russian vodka makers to make "Zelensky's Tears" vodka.

 

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Russia is really starting to crack down on social media in terms of mentions of killed Russians - there's talk that they are going to fully criminalize public/social media discussion of the deaths of individual soldiers.  

Not only will saying "I heard 20,000 Russians have been killed" on Russian social media get you a visit from the police but "my childhood friend Vasilly was killed in Ukraine last month, pray for his family" will get you a visit and a fine or jail time as well.

But people  and local government entities are still mentioning individual deaths for now, so the OSINT folks are still able to track Russian officers.

 

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5 minutes ago, maninblack said:

The U.S. should lift sanctions, stop sending all military aid and work to broker a peace agreement. 

Go listen to what Putin has been saying over the past 3-4 weeks.  Seriously - if you actually listened to Putin,  you'd know that Putin will absolutely laugh at any peace talks that fall short of giving him a big chunk of Ukraine (if not all of it).  He is making it clear that he believes Ukraine belongs to Russia, as does Moldova, Georgia, the Baltics, etc.

Listen to the man when he tells you what he believes and what he intends to do.

Stopping sanctions and military aid will merely help him convince his people that Russia is in the right, and then set up his next invasion of Moldova or Georgia.  Or one of the 'stans.

Edited June 20, 2022 by atomheartbevo

[atomheartbevo 89362]

What the fuck, the company commander dies helping clear mines?  It's like every week, Russia comes up with new ways to remind us of how poorly they structure their military.

From the social media link

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Sergey was 33 years old. It is known that he signed a contract back in 2017. The end of service was set for October 2022. However, on June 2, the man died.

Sergei Morilov was the commander of a demining company. He died during demining - hit a mine, - said source 72. RU.  Sergei has a wife. The captain was buried today at the Chervishevsky cemetery, next to his deceased loved ones.

From the same article

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A day earlier, in the village of Sartam, Vikulovsky district, they said goodbye to the military Boris Bykov. The 25-year-old corporal died in Ukraine on June 8. In 2019, the young man was drafted into the army, in the same year he signed a contract for three years and remained to serve in Khabarovsk.

So another one whose contract was up this year, and who was supposed to serve in Khabarovsk (Russian town).

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Since the beginning of the year, more than 150 Tyumen residents have signed contracts for military service. About 90 residents of the region signed a short-term contract for up to one year and left to participate in a special military operation.

"special military operation" for the win.

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Still a lot of talk that the actual DNR's 1st Army/Corps HQ was destroyed and a bunch of staff were killed.

Igor Girkin is a Russian nationalist, and former soldier and Federal Security Service officer (possibly ex-GRU) who was a major player in the annexation of Crimea, and he had originally claimed credit for the Malaysian Airlines Flight 17 shutdown, then spun out conspiracy theories about it.

He's pissed that Russia is not doing well.  This is his account

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Yesterday, as a result of shelling in Donetsk, the building of the headquarters of the 1st Corps of the People's Militia of the DPR was completely destroyed and burned down.

 

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5 minutes ago, maninblack said:

At this point he's taken most of the Donbas which large parts of wanted to separate before this started. I disagree with your assessment and believe that sending more money and arms to Ukraine will only prolong a war that's already over, create potential unintended consequences and spend money we don't have.  

You can disagree with my assessment, but I'm looking at what Putin is actually saying and telling the Russian people.  He's not going to stop with Donbas, and any "peace agreement" will last as long as it takes him to rearm and rebuilt his BTGs to take more of Ukraine.

When he tells you what he intends on doing, you should listen to him.

[atomheartbevo 89362]

Another mention of a different HQ being destroyed.  "40 teams" was lost in translation = 40 staff members.

"200" = Russian slang for a cargo code "200" referencing military fatalities being transported.

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The command post of the 20th All-Military Western Army of the Russian Federation was destroyed near Kharkiv. The building was destroyed along with 40 teams from Voronezh. In addition to them there are "200" representatives of the 533rd Command and Intelligence Center of the GRU General Staff. It is impossible to recognize the corpses

 

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These are basically their version of CIA's special activities group , although the line blurs into roles that our FBI handles.

This guy was very highly trained.

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On June 17, 2022, while on duty, a senior detective of the 2nd department of Directorate "A" of the Central Security Service of the FSB of Russia, Captain Tsuprik Ilya Nikolaevich, died. "Termite".

During his service, he was repeatedly encouraged by the leadership of the Office, he was a man of honor and word, with an active life position. He had a second category in mountaineering, went in for skiing, and parachute training.

Everlasting memory.

 

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9 minutes ago, maninblack said:

Since you think peace isn't possible you must be woefully disappointed in our response then. 

Oh, peace is possible, if Putin were out of the picture.

Like I said: Listen to what Putin is saying, as well as his staff and his media reps.  When Putin tells you what he intends to do, listen to him.

He doesn't make threats on a whim.

 

Edited June 20, 2022 by atomheartbevo

[Scheiss Meister 8398]

1 minute ago, maninblack said:

At this point he's taken most of the Donbas which large parts of wanted to separate before this started. I disagree with your assessment and believe that sending more money and arms to Ukraine will only prolong a war that's already over, create potential unintended consequences and spend money we don't have.  

Wow, was I wrong.  You aren't a Putin apologist, you are a full fledged acolyte.

First, not everyone in Donetsk and Luhansk wanted to separate.  The Russians moved in to reinforce the minority who wanted to separate from Ukraine.

Second, he has taken a large portion of the Donbas region, but has yet to prove that he can hold it. The Ukrainians have shown that holding it will be difficult, at least.

Third, the war is far from over.  It isn't over until Ukraine submits.  They have shown no inclination to do so, so you need to recalibrate your evaluation.

Fourth, ignoring Russian aggression will have tremendous consequences, intended and otherwise.  Every action has unintended consequences; that is no excuse to remain inactive in the face of the same type and stated scope of aggression the world last saw from Hitler, Mussolini, and Tojo.

Finally, spending money we don't have is the American pastime.  You just don't like that it isn't being spent the way you want it spent.

I would rather oppose Putin's authoritarianism and aggression now by helping Ukraine than later by fighting Russians with American fighting men after he has had time to rearm after you and your ilk remove sanctions.

[RPM 26185]

35 minutes ago, maninblack said:

The U.S. should lift sanctions, stop sending all military aid and work to broker a peace agreement. 

I never knew you were French.

[Auto Driller 2504]

Maybe they could sign the peace agreement in…I don’t know…Minsk? Certainly Russia wouldn’t violate it, right?

[atomheartbevo 89362]

10 minutes ago, maninblack said:

Since you think peace isn't possible you must be woefully disappointed in our response then. 

I'm sorry, that wasn't a full answer to your question earlier.

Actually, I'm very pleased at our response (and that of NATO's and the EU's).  No Americans are dying, and this should stop Putin's future endeavors in trying to take over more countries. I think it's about as good as we can do, given how fast this spun up, and Putin has ironically justified NATO's existence.

Back in February, most of us believed that Russia would be west of the Dniper in March and that we'd be supplying an insurgency.  Instead, Ukraine is fighting Russia head-on, and Ukraine has punched well above their weight class.

It's helped that the Russians are so incredibly incompetent and poorly-trained, but having conscripts for just a year does that.  Like I said several times back in February/March, having been in the US Army back in the early 90s, I really had it in my head that the Soviets and then Russians would be tough to crack on the battlefield. Instead, they seem to be more interested in living and looting Ukraine than anything else.

If I had a complaint, it's that we should be supplying Ukraine with more artillery (up to and including MLRS) and maybe putting PATRIOT systems into the hands of Ukrainians for use in Western Ukraine, and that we should be trying to help with training more of their typical rank-and-file soldiers in Poland or Romania. Language barriers could be overcome with translators, and we have really solid instructors in the US military that could help train up their infantry.

 

 

[atomheartbevo 89362]

For those thinking that a lot of history repeats itself, or at least rhymes with itself, discussions of Hungary throwing a wrench in things that go back a century or more (kind of a European Great Game)

 

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Putin no longer opposed to Ukraine joining EU, but he makes it clear there won't be much of Ukraine to join the EU.

 

[atomheartbevo 89362]

Just a perspective from the past 24 hours - Russian equipment destroyed/captured/etc., that are no longer in production and can't easily be replaced (Ukraine loses plenty but captures plenty of Russian stuff, plus has a steady flow of Western replacements flowing in)

• 1x Project 22870 SB-739 Spasatel Vasily Bekh rescue tug (destroyed) (this is a recent production, however these were made in extremely small numbers (6 in service, one in production), and because of sanctions, all of the parts needed may not be available) (Also they take 2-3 years to produce just one)
• 1x Su-25 close air support aircraft (destroyed)  (ceased production in 2017)
• 1x MT-LBVM AFV (captured) (Designed in the late 1950s,  thousands of MT-LB in storage and VM just has a different turret)
• 2x BMP-1AM IFV (destroyed)
• 1x BMP.1 IFV (captured)
• 2x 152mm 2S3(M) Akatsiya SPG (destroyed) (ceased main production in 1993, although upgrades have been made)

 

 

Edited June 20, 2022 by atomheartbevo

[atomheartbevo 89362]

For the gun nerds - Ian/Gun Jesus at Forgotten Weapons has covered both of these.

 

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[Trey3216 15325]

10 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

That Russian…

that’s some dedication to Nazi Germany

Looks like Oswald’s son or grandson.  

[Parliament 14112]

34 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

For the gun nerds - Ian/Gun Jesus at Forgotten Weapons has covered both of these.

 

I'll trade 3 AR15's for that FN.  

[Scheiss Meister 8398]

12 minutes ago, Rimbo said:

Still not worth it 

You're a better man than I.

[956 Worldwide 34314]

3 hours ago, maninblack said:

That lady sounds like she's a Bandera apologist

This will be the only time I respond to a full-fledged Kremlobot— but this is the good shit right here. Getting huffy over Russian pop music and textbooks at a moment when Russia’s army is illegally on Ukrainian territory doing war crimes and not much else is some plutonium grade whataboutism. 

 

[NorthLoop 14071]

47 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

Looks like Oswald’s son or grandson.    maninblack

 

[atomheartbevo 89362]

1 hour ago, Trey3216 said:

Looks like Oswald’s son or grandson.  

Fun fact, he had a daughter who was a waitress at the Texas Chili Parlor here in Austin back in the late 80s/early 90s.  She seemed nice.  

[atomheartbevo 89362]

 

[atomheartbevo 89362]

3 hours ago, Scheiss Meister said:

Fourth, ignoring Russian aggression will have tremendous consequences, intended and otherwise.  Every action has unintended consequences; that is no excuse to remain inactive in the face of the same type and stated scope of aggression the world last saw from Hitler, Mussolini, and Tojo.

And if MIB missed it, just four days ago, Dmitry Medvedev said this about Ukraine’s future existence on his official Telegram account:

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"Saw a report that Ukraine wants to get LNG from its overseas masters under Lend-Lease with payment for delivery in 2 years' time. Otherwise it will simply freeze to death this coming winter. There's a question though. Who's to say that Ukraine will exist on the world map in two years at all? Although the Americans don't care anymore — they are so invested in the 'anti-Russia' project that everything else is nothing to them," Medvedev said.

And he said this on June 7th

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"People often ask me why my Telegram posts are so harsh. The answer is that I hate them. They are bastards and scum. They want death for us, for Russia. And as long as I'm alive, I'll do anything I can to make them disappear," 

The Russians are telling everybody what they intend to do.  They don’t hide this shit.  They are telling us who they are.

Edited June 20, 2022 by atomheartbevo

[956 Worldwide 34314]

This is all part of plan B. Setting the stage for “negotiations” if he decides war in the Donbas is no longer worth the squeeze or if he thinks he can get the Allies to lean on Ukraine.  Putin will make some outrageous demands— all of Donbas, all of the southeast, likely even Odesa. He’ll then graciously “concede” the EU question for the rump state that is left and demand no NATO— the “Austria” model.  If this gets pitched (I think it will), I can guarantee that Macron/Scholz will seize on it as “reasonable” behind closed doors.

 

[956 Worldwide 34314]

It’s worth reading exactly what is being restricted under the new laws. It’s not Tolstoy and Stravinsky. The people getting cranky about this aside from pure Kremlin trolls are people who have had the luxury of generations of life free from existential warfare directed against them.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-restrict-russian-books-music-latest-cultural-break-moscow-2022-06-19/

Edited June 20, 2022 by 956 Worldwide

[Chad Fuck 17503]

At the risk of a slight detour, can someone with more insight into the Russian psyche than myself explain how this weird Nazi fetishist culture arose in Russia of all places? Hitler flat out called them subhuman and made a decent attempt at wiping them off the planet. Yet I’ve seen at least two Russians on this thread literally tattooed with Russian regalia. Clearly they must be outliers but this would seem to indicate a wider less extreme version in the land of Stalin. Wtf?

[Post Oak 20182]

It's easier to make someone believe a lie than believe they've been lied to.

[Nivek 16808]

At the risk of a slight detour, can someone with more insight into the Russian psyche than myself explain how this weird Nazi fetishist culture arose in Russia of all places? Hitler flat out called them subhuman and made a decent attempt at wiping them off the planet. Yet I’ve seen at least two Russians on this thread literally tattooed with Russian regalia. Clearly they must be outliers but this would seem to indicate a wider less extreme version in the land of Stalin. Wtf?

Their grandpas are germans.

[BabaYaga 15202]

9 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Actually, I'm very pleased at our response (and that of NATO's and the EU's).  No Americans are dying, and this should stop Putin's future endeavors in trying to take over more countries. I think it's about as good as we can do, given how fast this spun up, and Putin has ironically justified NATO's existence.

Agreed.  We need to stay out of the actual conflict.  My only issue is the percentage of help we are supplying relative to those next door to the conflict that are giving pennies while we dole out gold bars.

I also see that the O&G sanctions seem to have done the exact opposite they were intended to accomplish.  We cut back the supply, but the demand from China and India has only intensified (along with many EU nations).  They are buying at highly elevated prices, and Russia is flush with cash.  Last I saw, they've made $100B over the first 100 days of the war....more than they were making before the start of the conflict. 

My fear is how robust will continued support be if the US and Europe fall into a looming recession.  Layer on food & fertilizer shortages and it's going to get dicey (esp in Africa)

[atomheartbevo 89362]

8 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

My only issue is the percentage of help we are supplying relative to those next door to the conflict that are giving pennies while we dole out gold bars.

Some of the bordering nations (Baltics, Poland) are dumping massive amounts in to try and win the fight in Ukraine now, so that it doesn't spread to their nations.  They see a kindred spirit in the Ukrainians, and believe they can win (and believe they have to win) in Ukraine.  If things go south with Ukraine and Russia continues into the Baltics/Poland, they didn't have the manpower to fight Russia to a standstill anyways prior to February, and they know that the rest of NATO will deploy into their nations to fight Russia, but they still want to prevent that by backing Ukraine to the hilt.

You also have NATO nations that are farther back, who maybe believe that things will still go south in Ukraine, and that all of the sudden they are fighting Russia in Poland and the Baltics, and so they are keeping their hardware ready.  Some of them do not produce their own military hardware as well, or are limited in what they produce, and so they rely heavily on the US/UK/France/Sweden/etc. and if things go south, they won't have time to wait for new hardware if they've donated a lot already to Ukraine.

And a few are perhaps being cagey with the donations because they may have let training and maintenance, etc., lapse, or had a lot in storage, that wasn't maintained.  They were coasting for years because they had a helluva buffer with Ukraine/Belarus/Finland/etc., and all of the sudden, people are yelling for them to donate stuff, and they are perhaps trying not to reveal any weaknesses out of embarrassment or whatever.  I think this could be true especially in regards to Soviet-era hardware being stored away.

I don't think it's a coincidence that the Baltics and Poland have donated so much, and I don't think it's a coincidence that the US/Canada/UK/Australia are all donating a lot - in that last group, three of us have oceans between us and Russia, and the UK has solid seapower.  Short of nukes, no battles will be fought on our lands, so we have the luxury or pumping a lot of hardware into Ukraine.  Plus, some of us, especially the US, are transitioning between weapons systems (IFVs, etc.), so it's easy for us to dump older, but still solid hardware into the fight.

And it's not a coincidence that so many countries have donated small arms/ATGMs/etc., not just because they are easy to donate and relatively easy to replace, but also in the case of things like ant-tank missiles, if they are used in Ukraine, they will in theory be destroying tanks/IFVs/etc. that the Russians will then not be able to use if they move past Ukraine.

I could be wrong, but I know the Baltics/Poland are heavily invested in Russia failing, and it's not just emotionally, and I also get a sense that some NATO nations are nervous about having to fight Russia beyond Ukraine and so maybe want to keep artillery/etc. in their own country in case of that.

Putin and Co. have been sending clear signals that they won't stop with Ukraine, and the justifications they have used for Ukraine could be used for opening a land corridor to Kalingrad, and could be used to try and bring the Baltic states back into the fold.

Now I think the chances of them moving beyond Ukraine are extremely low at this point (Georgia would probably be the max) - Russia can't even get to the Dniper, they won't be able to take Odessa, etc., but Putin and Co. are still running their mouths way too much to and it makes a lot of Europeans nervous that he wants to return to some kind of USSR/Russian Empire.

[KYHorn 16808]

30 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

Agreed.  We need to stay out of the actual conflict.  My only issue is the percentage of help we are supplying relative to those next door to the conflict that are giving pennies while we dole out gold bars.

I also see that the O&G sanctions seem to have done the exact opposite they were intended to accomplish.  We cut back the supply, but the demand from China and India has only intensified (along with many EU nations).  They are buying at highly elevated prices, and Russia is flush with cash.  Last I saw, they've made $100B over the first 100 days of the war....more than they were making before the start of the conflict. 

My fear is how robust will continued support be if the US and Europe fall into a looming recession.  Layer on food & fertilizer shortages and it's going to get dicey (esp in Africa)

You won't find any disagreement in this thread about Germany and France not contributing anywhere near their fair share. It's unconscionable. However, the choice seems to be: provide far more insufficient support and try to convince France and Germany to provide more support (good luck), which severely constrains Ukraine's immediate defensive ability, or provide the level of support we currently are (or more) to dramatically increase the odds of Ukrainian success. It's not ideal, but this is about the art of the possible, and we can simultaneously pressure others to do more to try to achieve the ideal.

[atomheartbevo 89362]

Putin is shopping another line to sell to the Russian public and his allies.

 

[atomheartbevo 89362]

Russia starting to lose their shit over Lithuania blocking the Russians from using Lithuanian land to transport sanctioned goods.  Because apparently Lithuania has no agency in who or what crosses Lithuanian land.  Russia state domestic news agency bitching that it's a reason for war.

The telling thing is that twitter is being flooded with a shitload of bots and Russian propagandists bitching about how this is NATO trying to start a war with Russia, that Lithuania can't be upset if Russia invades it, that Lithuania deserves to be invaded, that Lithuania and the other "lesser" nations should shut the fuck up and be neutral and just do what the larger nations want them to do, etc. and basically that they should know their place and bow to Russia or something.

My feeds are full of these fucking Russian bots and apologists who are angry at Lithuania.  Like somebody turned on the tap.

Nothing is stopping the Russians from airlifting or using ships to transfer various goods (including potentially sanctions-breaking goods).

Meanwhile, a major player in the Duma is threatening Kazakhstan (after Putin threatened them).  Russia maybe worried that the other 'stans may join in on the condemnation.

 

[atomheartbevo 89362]

From Reuters, Russia whining.  A true power would show that they could easily keep Kalingrad supplied by air and sea.  We did it with prop planes in Berlin.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-warns-nato-member-lithuania-over-kaliningrad-transit-2022-06-20/

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LONDON, June 20 (Reuters) - Russia warned NATO member Lithuania on Monday that unless the transit of goods to Russia's Kaliningrad exclave on the Baltic Sea was swiftly restored then Moscow would take undisclosed measures to defend its national interests.

With east-west relations at a half-century low over Russia's Feb. 24 invasion of Ukraine, Vilnius banned the transit of goods sanctioned by the European Union through Lithuanian territory to and from the exclave, citing EU sanction rules. Russia's foreign ministry summoned Lithuania's top envoy in Moscow to deliver a protest while the Kremlin said the situation was beyond serious.

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"The situation is more than serious," Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told reporters. "This decision is really unprecedented. It's a violation of everything."

Russia's foreign ministry demanded Vilnius reverse what it cast as an "openly hostile" move immediately.

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"If cargo transit between the Kaliningrad region and the rest of the Russian Federation via Lithuania is not fully restored in the near future, then Russia reserves the right to take actions to protect its national interests," it said.

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"It's not Lithuania doing anything: it's European sanctions that started working from 17 of June," Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis told reporters in Luxembourg. "It was done with consultation from European Commission and under European Commission guidelines," Landsbergis said.

Lithuania's state-owned railway informed clients that from June 17 sanctioned goods such as steel and iron would not be permitted to cross Lithuania, Landsbergis said.

 

[MillerEP 30339]

5 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Russia starting to lose their shit over Lithuania blocking the Russians from using Lithuanian land to transport sanctioned goods.  Because apparently Lithuania has no agency in who or what crosses Lithuanian land.  Russia state domestic news agency bitching that it's a reason for war.

The telling thing is that twitter is being flooded with a shitload of bots and Russian propagandists bitching about how this is NATO trying to start a war with Russia, that Lithuania can't be upset if Russia invades it, that Lithuania deserves to be invaded, that Lithuania and the other "lesser" nations should shut the fuck up and be neutral and just do what the larger nations want them to do, etc. and basically that they should know their place and bow to Russia or something.

My feeds are full of these fucking Russian bots and apologists who are angry at Lithuania.  Like somebody turned on the tap.

Nothing is stopping the Russians from airlifting or using ships to transfer various goods (including potentially sanctions-breaking goods).

Meanwhile, a major player in the Duma is threatening Kazakhstan (after Putin threatened them).  Russia maybe worried that the other 'stans may join in on the condemnation.

 

If you look at the timing, Lithuania wasn't saying much outside of the same rhetoric the other Baltic States. It wasn't until Russia did that silly vote to withdrawal the USSR's recognition of Lithuania's independence that Lithuania said "ok fine, we're finally enforcing the Sanctions on Kaliningrad"

 

Edited June 20, 2022 by MillerEP

[MillerEP 30339]

The Kastus Kalinowski Regiment replenished the exchange fund with prisoners

🔞 Ukrainians were brought a new uniform. The guys left the pile of uniforms for a while and went to the positions. Later, the doctor decided to go back to pick something up, and there are already eight 🇷🇺🐽 digging in our uniforms. He shot one leg, the others surrendered in fright. The result - the medic captured 8 orcs.
 Believe in #ZSU 🇺🇦

In Crimea, the so-called head of Crimea, Serhiy Aksyonov, said that missile strikes had been fired at Chornomornaftogaz's drilling rigs.

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12301]

the odds seem higher that this is headed towards a true world war than there being some sort of negotiated truce between russia and ukraine.

this feels fucked.

[MillerEP 30339]

 

[MillerEP 30339]

[MillerEP 30339]

 

[MillerEP 30339]

 

[MillerEP 30339]

 

[Gatorubet 30064]

22 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

From Reuters, Russia whining.  A true power would show that they could easily keep Kalingrad supplied by air and sea.  We did it with prop planes in Berlin.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-warns-nato-member-lithuania-over-kaliningrad-transit-2022-06-20/

 

[MillerEP 30339]