Русский корабль - иди нахуй

[BabaYaga 15,202]

49 minutes ago, KYHorn said:

You won't find any disagreement in this thread about Germany and France not contributing anywhere near their fair share. It's unconscionable. However, the choice seems to be: provide far more insufficient support and try to convince France and Germany to provide more support (good luck), which severely constrains Ukraine's immediate defensive ability, or provide the level of support we currently are (or more) to dramatically increase the odds of Ukrainian success. It's not ideal, but this is about the art of the possible, and we can simultaneously pressure others to do more to try to achieve the ideal.

That's where I fall, but the premise only works if we keep giving - a dependency I see wavering if/when we fall ass first into a painful recession.  Then what?  

We all see if coming.  So where is the pressure for others to level-set the gear/money given to help the US keep up the fight?  Right now we're a single point of contact, single point of failure for for the UA.  

[MillerEP 30,339]

 

[MillerEP 30,339]

 

[MillerEP 30,339]

 

[MillerEP 30,339]

Sorry I've been posting more Flash, but interest is starting to wane so it's getting more difficult to find as many external sources like there was a few weeks ago

^I haven't seen anything yet

 

[MillerEP 30,339]

^lol

Panic in shopping centers in the Kaliningrad region.
 Lithuania has blocked the freight railway communication between the Russian Federation and Kaliningrad.

Edited June 20, 2022 by MillerEP

[MillerEP 30,339]

 

[MillerEP 30,339]

 

[BabaYaga 15,202]

3 minutes ago, MillerEP said:

 

Damn girl, an MP5 and a KRISS Vector.  

[Trey3216 15,325]

26 minutes ago, MillerEP said:

 

Looks like Miss Piggy...WNB.  

 

[956 Worldwide 34,314]

7 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

Damn girl, an MP5 and a KRISS Vector.  

Got a new one on my Insta today, a fake hot Ukrainian soldier.  With a screen name of “Elizabeth” in the English style. 

[Brisketexan 104,465]

16 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Got a new one on my Insta today, a fake hot Ukrainian soldier.  With a screen name of “Elizabeth” in the English style. 

If she's hot, it's not fake.

It's like you don't even know how to internet.

[atomheartbevo 89,362]

Edit: Replied below.

Edited June 20, 2022 by atomheartbevo

[atomheartbevo 89,362]

1 hour ago, MillerEP said:

 

I didn't have Russia tangling with Kazakhstan like this on my bingo card.

Kudos to Kazakhstan for standing up to Putin, in light of what Putin and his deputies are saying.

Edited June 20, 2022 by atomheartbevo

[atomheartbevo 89,362]

2 hours ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

the odds seem higher that this is headed towards a true world war than there being some sort of negotiated truce between russia and ukraine.

this feels fucked.

Putin wants you to think it will be world war unless he gets his way.  This is why he and the Russian state media talk about nuking England or the US.  He needs the world to think he's willing to start a world war over Ukraine (or even Lithuania), because he's running out of men and equipment.  He needs the world to give him Ukraine over fear of a world war, because he ain't winning it any other way.

@Brisketexan or one of the other Surly lawyers can probably tell you about seeing this strategy in court with some of their clients.

Russia is barely holding less than 20% of Ukraine.  And I'm not sure he could spare the troops needed to actually invade and occupy Moldova and Georgia, let alone attack a NATO country.

[Viper 12,011]

6 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Putin wants you to think it will be world war unless he gets his way.  This is why he and the Russian state media talk about nuking England or the US.  He needs the world to think he's willing to start a world war over Ukraine (or even Lithuania), because he's running out of men and equipment.  He needs the world to give him Ukraine over fear of a world war, because he ain't winning it any other way.

@Brisketexan or one of the other Surly lawyers can probably tell you about seeing this strategy in court with some of their clients.

Russia is barely holding less than 20% of Ukraine.  And I'm not sure he could spare the troops needed to actually invade and occupy Moldova and Georgia, let alone attack a NATO country.

maybe he's looking for an excuse to call for mobilization that doesn't admit how much of a failure the special operation in Ukraine has been?

[Bevo 13,493]

2 hours ago, MillerEP said:

Sorry I've been posting more Flash, but interest is starting to wane so it's getting more difficult to find as many external sources like there was a few weeks ago

^I haven't seen anything yet

 

It's pissing me off that I can't get any news on tv

[atomheartbevo 89,362]

Shit travels on Lithuanian-owned rail infrastructure that's on Lithuanian land.  Lithuania could tear up the rails it owns, starting at the Belarus border, and then what, Russia is going to send Super Special Railway Spetsnatz on a train through Belarus and into Lithuania, replacing or repairing rail as they go?

Also, it's not gone unnoticed that these are EU sanctions that Lithuania is enforcing, but Russia is trying to appeal to the EU to get Lithuania and Poland to bow to its will.  As somebody said, Russia is trying to act like they are vassal states.

[atomheartbevo 89,362]

4 minutes ago, Viper said:

maybe he's looking for an excuse to call for mobilization that doesn't admit how much of a failure the special operation in Ukraine has been?

I have a feeling that every Russian who is enthusiastic enough to support the special operation that they are willing to sign contracts and go fight in Ukraine, are already in uniform and in Ukraine (or on their way). And keep in mind that they already offered all conscripts and reservists a contract to go fight in Ukraine for 90 days (during a 3-day war).  And they've bumped up the age limits and added women.

Calling for a full mobilization so he can force all conscripts and reservists, as well as those who vets who have been out of uniform for a decade or more, is running a serious risk of misjudging the Russian public who is eligible to be forced to fight in Ukraine (plus their moms, Russian moms apparently have a lot of power).

As Julia Ioffe and others have talked about a lot, Putin is a gambler, rather than a risk taker.  He's not calculating the consequences vs the reward and basing his moves off of those calculations while minimizing his risks.  He's willing to gamble on events where he can't exert at least some control over (or account for) the outcome or even really calculate the outcome.

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12,301]

34 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Putin wants you to think it will be world war unless he gets his way.  This is why he and the Russian state media talk about nuking England or the US.  He needs the world to think he's willing to start a world war over Ukraine (or even Lithuania), because he's running out of men and equipment.  He needs the world to give him Ukraine over fear of a world war, because he ain't winning it any other way.

@Brisketexan

Weren't you just saying to listen to Putin when he tells us his plan? His plan is to invade more countries.

Walk me through how that doesn't lead to a World War.

We aren't dealing with a rational actor at this point.

[MillerEP 30,339]

 

[MillerEP 30,339]

 

[BabaYaga 15,202]

18 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

As Julia Ioffe and others have talked about a lot, Putin is a gambler, rather than a risk taker.  He's not calculating the consequences vs the reward and basing his moves off of those calculations while minimizing his risks.  He's willing to gamble on events where he can't exert at least some control over (or account for) the outcome or even really calculate the outcome.

Maybe.  He's gambling the Russians can "out suffer" the west with a dangerous game of economic chicken.  

His calculus included a weakened, divided, and war-weary west.  His calculus included the logistical nightmare for the west of weaning off his O&G supplies.  His calculus included a severe supply shortage of petroleum, driving up prices and filling his coffers.  If he is coordinating with China, and the switch is to battery power - Xi controls more than 70% of the worlds supplies of rare earth metals while buying billions in crude.  Ukraine also has half the worlds neon gas and 40% of the world's krypton...essential for semiconductors.

There might be a silver lining in terms of energy independence and robust logistical infrastructure for these battery/conductor components, but the west needs to get on the ball.    

[MillerEP 30,339]

 

[MillerEP 30,339]

 

[atomheartbevo 89,362]

40 minutes ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

Weren't you just saying to listen to Putin when he tells us his plan? His plan is to invade more countries.

Walk me through how that doesn't lead to a World War.

We aren't dealing with a rational actor at this point.

If he had rolled through Ukraine in a few weeks, yes, he would be invading other countries (mostly likely starting with Moldova). That's why he needs to be stopped in Ukraine.  That's the whole point of the West needing to keep up the supplies.

I don't subscribe to Peter Zeihan's arguments that after Ukraine he would then start invading other (including NATO) countries to secure the rest of the 9 or so geographical boundaries that would slow down or prevent an invasion of Russia proper, but it's clear that Putin has an intense appetite to recreate the USSR or Russian Empire.

And there is some definite paranoia going on over Russia's demographic crisis only getting worse - convenient that Russian state media is saying Russia took 300,000 kids out of Ukraine and transported them to Russia, along with nearly 2 million Ukrainians in general.

But Putin ain't invading shit if he can't even get to the Dnieper.  He needed Ukraine to capitulate and give him his coastal highway/landbridge to Moldova.

[Trey3216 15,325]

47 minutes ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

Weren't you just saying to listen to Putin when he tells us his plan? His plan is to invade more countries.

Walk me through how that doesn't lead to a World War.

We aren't dealing with a rational actor at this point.

We never have been 

[InkaUtexas 25,426]

3 hours ago, MillerEP said:

Sorry I've been posting more Flash, but interest is starting to wane so it's getting more difficult to find as many external sources like there was a few weeks ago

^I haven't seen anything yet

 

Keep doing what you do @MillerEP  And yeah, seeing the same thing. It is what happens when a story is saturated. 

[atomheartbevo 89,362]

1 hour ago, BabaYaga said:

His calculus included a weakened, divided, and war-weary west.  

He's strengthened the West - Sweden and Finland will join NATO, many NATO countries are upgrading equipment, restarting production of various systems, building up new battle groups to deploy forward in Eastern Europe, etc.

He's lost over three years of production of modern tanks and other armored vehicles.  He's literally crippled his nation's ability to respond to the mythical NATO invasion of Russia proper, and he's arguably crippled Russia's ability to project power in neighboring countries, with such high losses among not only his armored forces, but his elite airborne and naval infantry that he would rely on in invading other countries or putting down uprisings.  And he's showing the world how to defeat the Russian military.

1 hour ago, BabaYaga said:

His calculus included the logistical nightmare for the west of weaning off his O&G supplies. 

He's been cutting the West off from his o&g (including more countries in the past few days), so it's not a matter of the West weaning itself off of his o&g, it's the West finding replacements for the o&g that he's cutting them off from.  They aren't going to just develop those replacements, and then easily come back to Russian o&g in the short term.

1 hour ago, BabaYaga said:

His calculus included a severe supply shortage of petroleum, driving up prices and filling his coffers.  If he is coordinating with China, and the switch is to battery power - Xi controls more than 70% of the worlds supplies of rare earth metals while buying billions in crude.  Ukraine also has half the worlds neon gas and 40% of the world's krypton...essential for semiconductors.

Or he's obsessed with recreating the USSR or Russian Empire.  This is a guy who thinks the worst geopolitical event in the past century is the breakup of the USSR.

Edit: He and his oligarchs do want those Ukrainian oil and gas resources.

If he's coordinating with China, he's getting the short end of the stick - China isn't providing him with the military hardware he needs.

1 hour ago, BabaYaga said:

There might be a silver lining in terms of energy independence and robust logistical infrastructure for these battery/conductor components, but the west needs to get on the ball.    

Agreed - Western Europe is already getting back on the bandwagon of energy independence.

 

Edited June 20, 2022 by atomheartbevo

[atomheartbevo 89,362]

Russia whining about a tiny country is pretty rich.  First it was Ukraine bullying Russia, now it's Lithuania.

 

[Pato del Muerto 52,322]

Even if he could pull off a mobilization and get a bunch of troops, can he:

1) train/retrain them

2) efficiently move them to Ukraine and/or other future theaters like Lithuania 

3)arm them

4)feed them. This is listed last on purpose, as putin doesn’t really care if he can feed them.  Hunger is a motivation all it’s own to win battles and take the spoils, some of which is foodstuffs. 

[atomheartbevo 89,362]

LOL, Russians are self-aware about their propaganda.

 

[atomheartbevo 89,362]

More LOL (apologies if this formats weird, there is some cross-referencing of tweets that may not show up).

“his face is absolutely Russian, totally Russian” “Big blue eyes, blonde hair and beard” Said by the head of RT who is of Armenian descent while also speaking of Russophobia

 

 

[atomheartbevo 89,362]

Her whole article is worth a read

https://www.thedailybeast.com/youll-never-guess-the-lie-putin-has-come-up-with-now

Quote

In the best traditions of Soviet and North Korean propagandists, the head of RTstarted her monologue by praising Putin’s great health, indefatigable stamina, unshakable confidence and cheerful disposition.

She claimed that the most frequently requested questions average Russians wanted her to ask the Russian president were simple: the first one was a message of implicit support and the second one reflected the everyday citizens’ urgent plea to strike the “decision-making centers” as soon as possible. Angrily clenching her fist, Simonyan exclaimed: “I also want to ask, why don’t we strike them? Where are those red lines?” She recounted Putin’s response: “I won’t say which red lines they are, but they know about them... I won’t name them due to the military tactics: why would we show them our cards in advance?”

Quote

Simonyan claimed that one of Putin’s reasons for not carrying out more intense bombings in major cities was a rather practical one: “He said, “Would we want to turn those cities into Stalingrad?” Indeed, our people are there! Those are our future cities! It’s obvious... This is our land and our people, we’ll later have to restore it.”

After her secretive meetings with Putin, Simonyan—who for years promoted the idea of Russia’s armed intervention in neighboring countries—emerged with a drastically different iteration of the events being witnessed by the rest of the world. She outright denied that Russia is waging either a war or even a special operation in Ukraine. Instead, Simonyan alleged, there is a civil war and Russia simply took the side of the Russians.

Quote

The head of RT did her best to sell an implausible story, laced with genocidal denial of Ukrainians as a people, and an outright dismissal of an idea they could possibly be fighting to defend their Motherland. Describing one of the videos of a Ukrainian POW she recently watched, Simonyan said: “A surrendered soldier of the Ukrainian Armed Forces was sitting down, his face is absolutely Russian, totally Russian. None of you could tell who he was, he’s Russian. Big blue eyes, blonde hair and beard. He said, “I was mobilized under mandatory enlistment.” We should understand, not all of them are there of their own free will.” Simonyan, who often claims that the Russian troops are in Ukraine fighting for their Motherland, absurdly denied that such a concept could ever apply to Ukrainians fighting on their own soil.

 

[Rimbo 25,752]

4 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Her whole article is worth a read

https://www.thedailybeast.com/youll-never-guess-the-lie-putin-has-come-up-with-now

 

[atomheartbevo 89,362]

4 minutes ago, Rimbo said:

Russian state TV really does give off that North Korean vibe.

I'm sure it's always been this way, but up until February, there were actually independent media TV channels that the Russian people could watch.

[The Dog 43,771]

 

[InkaUtexas 25,426]

Damn..... Worth the watch. 

 

[atomheartbevo 89,362]

[InkaUtexas 25,426]

6 minutes ago, The Dog said:

 

So ya know where they are. Sink them. 

[Bevo 13,493]

6 minutes ago, The Dog said:

 

Does Ukraine have the anti-ship stuff yet?

[Orange&White 5,516]

[InkaUtexas 25,426]

Just now, Bevo said:

Does Ukraine have the anti-ship stuff yet?

Yes, they have harpoons. But if they can track them I bet the HIMARS would hammer the shit out of them when in range. Accurate system as others here have pointed out. 

[Pato del Muerto 52,322]

2 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Yes, they have harpoons. But if they can track them I bet the HIMARS would hammer the shit out of them when in range. Accurate system as others here have pointed out. 

I wonder if they have any torpedo rounds for himars or shoulder mount that plop into the water and make their way under the target and vaporize the water supporting the ship, thereby snapping the keel. 

[The Dog 43,771]

7 minutes ago, Bevo said:

Does Ukraine have the anti-ship stuff yet?

According to that thread they have the Harpoons - up to 280km range which is approximately the distance from Odessa to Sevastopol. 

I don't think any HIMARS systems are in Ukraine yet.

Edited June 20, 2022 by The Dog

[Scheiss Meister 8,398]

Alright Poseidons, Rivet Joints, and Bayraktars, do your thing so the Harpoons can do theirs.

Edited June 20, 2022 by Scheiss Meister

[InkaUtexas 25,426]

12 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

I wonder if they have any torpedo rounds for himars or shoulder mount that plop into the water and make their way under the target and vaporize the water supporting the ship, thereby snapping the keel. 

Hi Sir, some friends in DTRA would like to talk to you. 

 

[AUS-97HORN 11,654]

even if the UKR dont have all the harpoon's, I would think a unit with something as small as 300 javelins could easily fuck up a huge portion of any landing craft sent to do an amphibious assault.   even with the max range of only 3km.   that attack from above move by the missile at the end could seriously fuck up most landing craft.

thats something that the soldiers could lay low during the assault (which if the russians had any brains would include a huge missile and naval fire bombardment) and pop up when the ships start getting too close.  they could even target something as large as a destroyer... wouldnt sink it but could fuck it up a lot. 

russia kinda proved they have no fucking anti missile defenses on their ships that actually work... otherwise the moscow wouldnt have been hit with 2 of them. 

[Pato del Muerto 52,322]

9 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Hi Sir, some friends in DTRA would like to talk to you. 

 

I am unfamiliar with this agency and it’s mission, or how it might relate to me. 

[atomheartbevo 89,362]

Man, a lot of people don’t know where Kalingrad is on a map   They think Lithuania is literally creating an actual blockade around Kalingrad instead of simply not allowing Russian goods to travel across Lithuanian territory on Lithuanian rails. They also don’t realize that Russia would have to cross Belarus to invade Lithuania and I’m not sure their logistics network is up for that, since they are kinda tied up with Ukraine.  

And Russia definitely unleashed the Twitter bots and sent out talking points to their fans over this.  Lots of “Lithuanian wants war, they are going to get the hammer over this!”