Русский корабль - иди нахуй

[The Dog 44155]

Attacking Lithuania triggers Article 5. 
 

Russia ain’t doing shit.

[Ghost of LL 15544]

17 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Man, a lot of people don’t know where Kalingrad is on a map   They think Lithuania is literally creating an actual blockade around Kalingrad instead of simply not allowing Russian goods to travel across Lithuanian territory on Lithuanian rails. They also don’t realize that Russia would have to cross Belarus to invade Lithuania and I’m not sure their logistics network is up for that, since they are kinda tied up with Ukraine.  

And Russia definitely unleashed the Twitter bots and sent out talking points to their fans over this.  Lots of “Lithuanian wants war, they are going to get the hammer over this!”  

 

Between Russia and Lithuania, there is a whole lot of fucking around by people who really shouldn't want to find out.

[atomheartbevo 89812]

8 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

Between Russia and Lithuania, there is a whole lot of fucking around by people who really shouldn't want to find out.

And Poland and the other Baltics wouldn’t wait for a NATO meeting.

Hertling has a long thread on it

 

[InkaUtexas 26158]

1 hour ago, Pato del Muerto said:

I am unfamiliar with this agency and it’s mission, or how it might relate to me. 

DOD's Research happens there.

You have a good idea is what I was saying. 

Edited June 20, 2022 by InkaUtexas

[staboner 4988]

russia calling something unlawful. aggy drips off these motherfuckers

 

[The Dog 44155]

Regarding the Black Sea fleet:

 

[The Dog 44155]

 

[Rimbo 26137]

3 hours ago, The Dog said:

Attacking Lithuania triggers Article 5. 
 

Russia ain’t doing shit.

I'd like to see them try though.

Trigger Article 5, bitches.

[AUS-97HORN 11824]

26 minutes ago, Rimbo said:

I'd like to see them try though.

Trigger Article 5, bitches.

I really dont.

 

I dont want to be in an actual full on shooting match with Russia.   Yeah, it really looks like 99% of their military funds have been diverted to an oligarch's pocket, and we would seriously impact their ability to make war in a few days...

but that gives the fucking lunatic 1 final fuck you to the world.... "if I cant have it, no one will" and the fucker drops nukes....  even if its only on the border countries/ukraine/ belarus and only 10% detonate that will fuck up millions of lives.

 

I just dont want to have to cross that line.... HE MAY cross it and we all will see what happens when he fucks around and we fully commit to an all encompassing, massive, full-on everything we got except nukes, response.    it would fuck up russia for sure... but that may be what he wants... the final fuck the world moment. 

[The Dog 44155]

7 minutes ago, AUS-97HORN said:

I really dont.

 

I dont want to be in an actual full on shooting match with Russia.   Yeah, it really looks like 99% of their military funds have been diverted to an oligarch's pocket, and we would seriously impact their ability to make war in a few days...

but that gives the fucking lunatic 1 final fuck you to the world.... "if I cant have it, no one will" and the fucker drops nukes....  even if its only on the border countries/ukraine/ belarus and only 10% detonate that will fuck up millions of lives.

 

I just dont want to have to cross that line.... HE MAY cross it and we all will see what happens when he fucks around and we fully commit to an all encompassing, massive, full-on everything we got except nukes, response.    it would fuck up russia for sure... but that may be what he wants... the final fuck the world moment. 

Putin isn't risking triggering Article 5. 

Good chance Russia starts suing for a cease fire once Ukraine starts to take back some of the land they've taken in the next month or so. 

Remember, more than half of the US military aid is still on ships heading to Europe. Lend lease isn't even in play yet. 

[atomheartbevo 89812]

 

[atomheartbevo 89812]

 

[InkaUtexas 26158]

6 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

And Poland and the other Baltics wouldn’t wait for a NATO meeting.

Hertling has a long thread on it

 

Rereading a bitter glory. Damn the poles almost decided to take Moscow. History is a bitch folks. 

[InkaUtexas 26158]

@atomheartbevo @MillerEP

Check out that video I posted. Damn that is impressive. 

[956 Worldwide 34789]

The Kremlin trolls and propagandists are losing their minds over Lithuania. Important to note it’s only EU sanctioned goods— mostly steel and metallurgic goods. 

[BabaYaga 15327]

17 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

He's strengthened the West - Sweden and Finland will join NATO, many NATO countries are upgrading equipment, restarting production of various systems, building up new battle groups to deploy forward in Eastern Europe, etc.

He's lost over three years of production of modern tanks and other armored vehicles.  He's literally crippled his nation's ability to respond to the mythical NATO invasion of Russia proper, and he's arguably crippled Russia's ability to project power in neighboring countries, with such high losses among not only his armored forces, but his elite airborne and naval infantry that he would rely on in invading other countries or putting down uprisings.  And he's showing the world how to defeat the Russian military.

He's been cutting the West off from his o&g (including more countries in the past few days), so it's not a matter of the West weaning itself off of his o&g, it's the West finding replacements for the o&g that he's cutting them off from.  They aren't going to just develop those replacements, and then easily come back to Russian o&g in the short term.

Or he's obsessed with recreating the USSR or Russian Empire.  This is a guy who thinks the worst geopolitical event in the past century is the breakup of the USSR.

Edit: He and his oligarchs do want those Ukrainian oil and gas resources.

If he's coordinating with China, he's getting the short end of the stick - China isn't providing him with the military hardware he needs.

Agreed - Western Europe is already getting back on the bandwagon of energy independence.

 

I doubt he cares about his hardware.  With the hundreds of billions he's making, he can just buy more if he had to.  As for O&G replacements, fine....but where?  Germany is so desperate they are dusting off their old coal plants because they no other options

Germany coal plants

[Gatorubet 30321]

24 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

I doubt he cares about his hardware.  With the hundreds of billions he's making, he can just buy more if he had to.  

Joe’s Used Cars, Cruise Missiles and Tanks?   

“One on every corner - Ask us about our stuff that fits Russian ammo!”

[BabaYaga 15327]

5 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

Joe’s Used Cars, Cruise Missiles and Tanks?   

“One on every corner - Ask us about our stuff that fits Russian ammo!”

What is really troubling is that a weakened, undisciplined army can have catastrophic effects on civilians precisely because they have limited capabilities.  They are unable to execute precise, limited engagements.  Instead, it's just scorched earth tactics because that is all they can do....causing this to grind on for years.  

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12301]

37 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

I doubt he cares about his hardware.  With the hundreds of billions he's making, he can just buy more if he had to.

this is my concern. putin can:

• continue manufacturing and lobbing dumb bombs
• throw bodies onto the front lines in perpetuity

the russian people can most definitely 'out suffer' the West.

Russia is going to get sanctions lifted, take parts of Ukraine, and then do it all again elsewhere when he wants.

[Gatorubet 30321]

4 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

What is really troubling is that a weakened, undisciplined army can have catastrophic effects on civilians precisely because they have limited capabilities.  They are unable to execute precise, limited engagements.  Instead, it's just scorched earth tactics because that is all they can do....causing this to grind on for years.  

That’s been Russia’s tactics since Catherine the Great.  It’s what they do and who they are. 

[The Dog 44155]

Another long video from Perun - this time covering the economics of the war. 

Some interesting tl;dw points:

1. Russia making a killing in the short term due to skyrocketing oil and gas prices even though they are selling less. Even then the oil they are selling to places like India is at an extreme discount. 

2. Russia's propping up of the Ruble may be bad longer term (makes their stuff more expensive - especially if they want to be paid in Rubles) and they can't sell anything other than oil and gas in rubles;

3. Russia's biggest vulnerability is on imports - they need imported goods and cannot get them (or pay for them). The Lada Granata (the "sanctions buster car") used as an example - has no ABS, no air bags, no seat belt pretensioners, etc. These are all manufactured outside of Russia. 

4. Poverty rising in Russia and lost all post COVID growth already;

5. Ukraine is fucked if the West stops supporting them to the level they have so far. 

 

[atomheartbevo 89812]

55 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

I doubt he cares about his hardware.  With the hundreds of billions he's making, he can just buy more if he had to. 

Where?  Russian companies supply the Russian army, and this war has cost the Russians over three years worth of main battle tank production (and sanctions have screwed with their ability to produce even 200 tanks a year), not to mention all of the armored vehicles (comms, command/control, SAM, etc.) that can't be replaced because their production lines shut down years (or even decades) ago.  The Chinese and North Koreans have compatible systems, but the Chinese haven't been willing to help with hardware, and the Norks don't exactly have an abundance of modern-era tanks they can part with, plus a lot of their the stuff they have in large numbers is based on T-62s.

There's a reason why he's bringing early 1960s T-62s into action.

As for Europe replacing O&G, a lot of countries are stepping up to profit from it - Israel/Egypt, etc.  It won't be pretty this winter, but at this point, Putin is not turning back on the taps in the fall unless the EU drops all sanctions, and he's made it clear that he intends to disrupt Europe as much as he can.  Combine that with him creating a global food crisis that is going to fuck with Europe as well, and this is the world's nastiest and most expensive divorce.

[Rimbo 26137]

2 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Where?  Russian companies supply the Russian army, and this war has cost the Russians over three years worth of main battle tank production (and sanctions have screwed with their ability to produce even 200 tanks a year), not to mention all of the armored vehicles (comms, command/control, SAM, etc.) that can't be replaced because their production lines shut down years (or even decades) ago.  The Chinese and North Koreans have compatible systems, but the Chinese haven't been willing to help with hardware, and the Norks don't exactly have an abundance of modern-era tanks they can part with, plus a lot of their the stuff they have in large numbers is based on T-62s.

There's a reason why he's bringing early 1960s T-62s into action.

As for Europe replacing O&G, a lot of countries are stepping up to profit from it - Israel/Egypt, etc.  It won't be pretty this winter, but at this point, Putin is not turning back on the taps in the fall unless the EU drops all sanctions, and he's made it clear that he intends to disrupt Europe as much as he can.  Combine that with him creating a global food crisis that is going to fuck with Europe as well, and this is the world's nastiest and most expensive divorce.

"Divorce?"

This implies they were married, or even together, to start with.

Bad term to use.

"Rape" is a far more accurate term.

 

 

[atomheartbevo 89812]

3 hours ago, 956 Worldwide said:

The Kremlin trolls and propagandists are losing their minds over Lithuania. Important to note it’s only EU sanctioned goods— mostly steel and metallurgic goods. 

Yeah, that's been the most surprising thing.  We saw this kind of activity after Feb. 24th, and we saw some of it trying to spin the withdrawal after Kyiv, but this Lithuania thing seems to have surpassed both of those.  Granted, they have had more time to build up their trolls and bots now that we are around 120 days into the 3-day war, but still.

I'm guessing Russia rolled out the trolls and bots because they have some serious fears about either not being able to keep Kalingrad supplied with some crucial parts, or they are worried about people in Kalingrad getting pissed at the Russian government, or both.  Something is definitely off.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61878929

Quote

Russia "will certainly respond to such hostile actions," senior security official Nikolai Patrushev said.  Lithuania says it is only following the EU sanctions imposed over Moscow's invasion of Ukraine.

The EU has echoed Lithuania's statement, saying that the country is just implementing sanctions imposed by the EU as a result of Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Quote

During visit on Tuesday to Kaliningrad, Mr Patrushev said the blockade by Lithuania was instigated by the West "in violation of... international law". The secretary of Russia's Security Council warned that "appropriate measures" would be taken "in the near future".

"Their consequences will have a serious negative impact on the population of Lithuania," he added, without giving any further details. Earlier on Tuesday, the EU ambassador was summoned to the Russian foreign ministry over the blockade.

Quote

But when the foreign ministry in Moscow says "Russia reserves the right to take actions to protect its national interests", what exactly does it mean? What actions and when?  The Kremlin says it's trying to work that out right now.  On Monday, President Vladimir Putin's spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, noted that "the situation is really very serious and requires a very deep analysis before preparing any measures or any decisions. This thorough analysis will be carried out over the next few days."

Today, one of Vladimir Putin's closest allies, Nikolai Patrushev, flew to the Kaliningrad region to discuss "national security in north-west Russia". Mr Patrushev is secretary of Russia's powerful Security Council. Officials claim the visit was planned long in advance. What a coincidence.

 

[BabaYaga 15327]

1 minute ago, atomheartbevo said:

Where?  Russian companies supply the Russian army, and this war has cost the Russians over three years worth of main battle tank production (and sanctions have screwed with their ability to produce even 200 tanks a year), not to mention all of the armored vehicles (comms, command/control, SAM, etc.) that can't be replaced because their production lines shut down years (or even decades) ago.  The Chinese and North Koreans have compatible systems, but the Chinese haven't been willing to help with hardware, and the Norks don't exactly have an abundance of modern-era tanks they can part with, plus a lot of their the stuff they have in large numbers is based on T-62s.

There's a reason why he's bringing early 1960s T-62s into action.

As for Europe replacing O&G, a lot of countries are stepping up to profit from it - Israel/Egypt, etc.  It won't be pretty this winter, but at this point, Putin is not turning back on the taps in the fall unless the EU drops all sanctions, and he's made it clear that he intends to disrupt Europe as much as he can.  Combine that with him creating a global food crisis that is going to fuck with Europe as well, and this is the world's nastiest and most expensive divorce.

They still have millions of stored "dumb" munitions they can fall back on.  They don't need tanks to destroy cities.  They can also buy arms from any number of countries.  China won't "give" them tech, but they'd be happy to sell it at a premium.  There have been reports many basic weapons are coming from Iran.  Rockets, artillery, RPGs, etc.  

As for winter, that's my point about "suffering" - come winter, if this gets worse, and it will, you are going to see a lot of attitudes start to shift back towards wrapping this up.  

[atomheartbevo 89812]

2 minutes ago, Rimbo said:

"Divorce?"

This implies they were married, or even together, to start with.

Cohabitation? 

It's going to be nasty whatever you want to call it, Putin wants to make it as painful as possible for Europe, which is just reinforcing the idea for Europeans that they need to be completely done with Russia, at least as long as Putin is around.

[Bevo 13601]

3 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Cohabitation? 

It's going to be nasty whatever you want to call it, Putin wants to make it as painful as possible for Europe, which is just reinforcing the idea for Europeans that they need to be completely done with Russia, at least as long as Putin is around.

Nah, it was just a little finger bangin'.

[atomheartbevo 89812]

1 minute ago, BabaYaga said:

They still have millions of stored "dumb" munitions they can fall back on.  They don't need tanks to destroy cities.  They can also buy arms from any number of countries. 

They can destroy cities, but ultimately they still have to hold and occupy Ukrainian territory, and you can't do it with Russian soldiers on cheap radios with AK-47s and some old MANPADs, and some trucks with tree trunks strapped to the front.  

Putin believes he has to take Ukrainian territory, and yes, he will destroy everything he can, but his desire to hold that territory is going to be the downfall of the Russian military, and Ukraine is using that to bleed the Russian army.  

And they can produce the basics - dumb bombs, rifles (and they have millions of AK-47s, etc. in storage), small ammo, etc., but they need those advanced armored platforms to actually occupy territory.  And I say this as somebody who has questioned the role of tanks in light of the flood of ATGMs that have led to well over a thousand+ armored vehicles being destroyed.

 

 

[BabaYaga 15327]

9 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Cohabitation? 

It's going to be nasty whatever you want to call it, Putin wants to make it as painful as possible for Europe, which is just reinforcing the idea for Europeans that they need to be completely done with Russia, at least as long as Putin is around.

I think they all see the need, but the "how" is the problem.  It could take decades to full extricate themselves from Russian O&G.  Putin knows this, hence his actions.  

What's the old expression in pool:  you have to get better the same way you got sick.  Meaning one game at a time.  Europe spent years setting up the infrastructure with Russia, and it will take years to unwind from it all.  

[BabaYaga 15327]

Just now, atomheartbevo said:

They can destroy cities, but ultimately they still have to hold and occupy Ukrainian territory, and you can't do it with Russian soldiers on cheap radios with AK-47s and some old MANPADs, and some trucks with tree trunks strapped to the front.  

Putin believes he has to take Ukrainian territory, and yes, he will destroy everything he can, but his desire to hold that territory is going to be the downfall of the Russian military, and Ukraine is using that to bleed the Russian army.  

And they can produce the basics - dumb bombs, rifles (and they have millions of AK-47s, etc. in storage), small ammo, etc., but they need those advanced armored platforms to actually occupy territory.  And I say this as somebody who has questioned the role of tanks in light of the flood of ATGMs that have led to well over a thousand+ armored vehicles being destroyed.

 

 

I think we all said that in the first few days on the war - holding territory is very, very different than taking it.  We have two decades in the ME to bear that out.  That doesn't mean this won't drag on for years, especially if support from the West dries up or the flow is stemmed.  

[atomheartbevo 89812]

13 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

As for winter, that's my point about "suffering" - come winter, if this gets worse, and it will, you are going to see a lot of attitudes start to shift back towards wrapping this up.  

He's not a rational actor.  Putin is not doing the things he needed to be doing to shift those attitudes in the long run.  He's just being a straight-up asshole to them, because Europe prevented him from taking Ukraine, and if he can't take Ukraine, his other plans fall apart, and so he's pissed and wants to hurt them.

He's doing the things that will cause them to look elsewhere in the long run, because they don't want to deal with this shit again.

A rational actor...wouldn't have invaded Ukraine, but putting that aside, a rational actor would have continued fully supplying Europe and taking their money and he would keep on telling the world "look, my war is against Nazis in Ukraine, not the West, I like Europe and respect Europe and want to make sure their people stay warm."

Instead he's got his talking heads (and himself) out there saying this is a war against Europe.

[BabaYaga 15327]

2 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

He's not a rational actor.  Putin is not doing the things he needed to be doing to shift those attitudes in the long run.  He's just being a straight-up asshole to them, because Europe prevented him from taking Ukraine, and if he can't take Ukraine, his other plans fall apart, and so he's pissed and wants to hurt them.

He's doing the things that will cause them to look elsewhere in the long run, because they don't want to deal with this shit again.

A rational actor...wouldn't have invaded Ukraine, but putting that aside, a rational actor would have continued fully supplying Europe and taking their money and he would keep on telling the world "look, my war is against Nazis in Ukraine, not the West, I like Europe and respect Europe and want to make sure their people stay warm."

Instead he's got his talking heads (and himself) out there saying this is a war against Europe.

Maybe.  During the Cold War talk on both sides was centered around understanding the motives and thought processes of one another.  

He thought the conflict would be swift.  That was an intel failure on his part.  He also thought conflict would be less intense.  Another failure.  That's not rational or irrational, those are intel mistakes.  

My guess is, in his mind, there was a clear linear path to his actions that many analysts predicted in the West.  

As for collateral damage, this falls back to "being Russian".  We bled in the dirt for TWO decades.  We bled in the jungles for close to 15 years.  Rational?  Neither - it's hubris and it impacts all leaders caught in the gravity of a failed conflict.  This isn't ending any time soon.

As for money, again, he's making more money now than before the war started and he has Europe on the ropes.  Come winter, there are going to be shifts in opinion that I fear will favor appeasing Russia and stemming the flow of supplies to the UA to help facilitate peace talks.  I hope I'm wrong.  

[Schulz2.0 29012]

1 hour ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

this is my concern. putin can:

• throw bodies onto the front lines in perpetuity

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12301]

23 minutes ago, Schulz2.0 said:

He can do it for longer than the west can stomach food and gas shortages, inflation, etc.

[Schulz2.0 29012]

13 minutes ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

He can do it for longer than the west can stomach food and gas shortages, inflation, etc.

He doesn't have the people without declaring war and mobilizing. 

[The Dog 44155]

 

Do better with the gear we give you Ukraine - this shouldn't happen:

 

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12301]

1 hour ago, Schulz2.0 said:

He doesn't have the people without declaring war and mobilizing....which he can do with the stroke of a pen.

FIFY.

European leaders don't have the luxury of staying in power if their representatives get fed up with the high costs/inconveniences of this war. 

If this doesn't end quickly (and it ain't) the West will cave. 

[Schulz2.0 29012]

2 minutes ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

FIFY.

European leaders don't have the luxury of staying in power if their representatives get fed up with the high costs/inconveniences of this war. 

If this doesn't end quickly (and it ain't) the West will cave. 

Oh I don't disagree that there's a big risk of the West, or at least some parts of it, caving at some point. I'm saying they've ran out 50-60 year old, medically disqualified LPR/DPR dudes with WW2 era equipment. I'm arguing mobilizing isn't as easy as you believe would be or he would have done so already.

[Gatorubet 30321]

Many troops can just refuse deployment for a special operation.  Has to be a war for Putin to prosecute those who refuse.   He fucked up by playing cute, and now he is boxed in.  He needs contract people and he is running out of poor Russian Federation minorities who want to die for a used washing machine. 

 

Edited June 21, 2022 by Gatorubet

[InkaUtexas 26158]

Ex-USSR population saying fuck Russia. 

 

[Sbbruin 21896]

2 hours ago, BabaYaga said:

As for money, again, he's making more money now than before the war 

Can you show your work here?

[BabaYaga 15327]

3 minutes ago, Sbbruin said:

Can you show your work here?

Making more on O&G than he's spending on the war

Price hiked oil

He's make close to $100B since the start of the war.  He started with $160B in reserve.  

[Schulz2.0 29012]

25 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Ex-USSR population saying fuck Russia. 

 

I didn't realize Mose Schrute was fighting in Ukraine.

[The Dog 44155]

 

[Schulz2.0 29012]

 

[MillerEP 30501]

 

[MillerEP 30501]

 

[Trey3216 15371]

w

3 minutes ago, MillerEP said:

 

Awesome.  We need more bureaucratic overlap jobs  

[Chad Fuck 17803]

[/url]  

Is there a worse place to be stationed as a Russian than a tiny island that’s a symbolic target for your enemy? Fuuuuuuck that.

[Gatorubet 30321]

2 hours ago, BabaYaga said:

Making more on O&G than he's spending on the war

Price hiked oil

He's make close to $100B since the start of the war.  He started with $160B in reserve.  

And the money can’t replace lost men and weapons.   It will be years before they can replace the stuff destroyed. Years.    Unless Spetsnaz can win by stuffing rolled up wads of oil revenue ruble bills into Ukrainian soldier breath holes while they sleep, the money won’t be enough.