Русский корабль - иди нахуй

[atomheartbevo 89727]

5 hours ago, BabaYaga said:

He thought the conflict would be swift.  That was an intel failure on his part.  He also thought conflict would be less intense.  Another failure.  That's not rational or irrational, those are intel mistakes.  

My guess is, in his mind, there was a clear linear path to his actions that many analysts predicted in the West.  

Hubris and arrogance on his part, and a security and intelligence bureaucracy that he deliberately manipulated and changed when he came into power, that was afraid to tell him the truth, and a poorly trained and poorly led military.

Hubris and arrogance - he believed the very things he had been saying for 20 years - that Europe and the US were weak, that Ukraine was not a real country.

And his past with the KGB/FSB should have informed him on what happens when you create a security and intelligence apparatus that is more interested in keeping its masters happy and the Russian people in line, rather than providing you with the truth and reality of whatever situation you were in.

Here in the West, both in Europe, and particularly in the US, we have a lot of very smart people whose job it is, is to poke holes in military planning.  Not merely a devil's advocate of sorts with vague notions of what might happen, but actually deconstructing those plans and coming up with every conceivable way they could go wrong.

Putin and Russia don't have that.  Military officers don't want to tell their superiors that they can't do something, and military leadership didn't want to tell Putin the truth.  Russians don't want to risk their careers or jail time telling their superiors what the superiors don't want to hear.

Ukraine spent nearly a decade after 2014 training its military in the ways of the US and Western Europe, complete with NCOs and junior officers who could adjust their plans on the fly.

Russia refused to create a military where young soldiers and NCOs could take the initiative when shit went haywire, partly because they leaned far too heavily on conscripts that were in and out in a year, who were barely competent in their speciality by the time they finished their one year.  That lead to all of those generals and lieutenant colonels and captains being killed in stunning numbers, because when shit goes south, they have to go to the front and take over and try to fix it.

[MillerEP 30491]

 

[atomheartbevo 89727]

4 hours ago, Schulz2.0 said:

He doesn't have the people without declaring war and mobilizing. 

2 hours ago, Gatorubet said:

Many troops can just refuse deployment for a special operation.  Has to be a war for Putin to prosecute those who refuse.   He fucked up by playing cute, and now he is boxed in.  He needs contract people and he is running out of poor Russian Federation minorities who want to die for a used washing machine. 

Having watched some of the Russian state TV, plus Russian YouTubers (mostly younger types who bailed on Russia for Georgia, etc.), as well as a couple of older Russians who aren't happy, Putin will have problems trying to mobilize in large part because it runs counter to the narrative his people are selling on Russian state TV.  His propaganda is too good amongst the olds.  They believe there is no need for mobilization.

But more importantly, as a couple of those younger YouTubers have pointed out, Putin has to contend with two generations of Russians who have had some nominal freedom of movement, freedom of the press, free speech, etc. 

You basically have people into their 40s who have had a lot more freedom than their parents had, and Putin is taking that away from them. The Russian government is doing everything it can to control the flow of information - shutting down media organizations, banning western social media, banning websites, arresting people spreading facts about the war and casualties, etc., on Russian social media, and that is causing a huge problem, because the youth are still using their VPNs, still getting information.

This very well could be Putin's biggest fuckup - going to war with a peacetime army, and telling everybody that everything was going too well.

[atomheartbevo 89727]

 

[atomheartbevo 89727]

 

"Russia is totally not an aggressor, we're acting very rationally."

[MillerEP 30491]

 

[AUS-97HORN 11809]

27 minutes ago, MillerEP said:

Now this is some serious next level funny shit showing you how completely fucking clueless the average EXPAT Russian citizen is right now about world sanctions.

 

these moron's are buying shit that costs at least $1k, that isnt legally allowed to be sold in Russia anymore, and rather than try to sneak it into Russia and make 2-3x on it, they are getting their shit confiscated because they are trying to get their duty tax refunded.

[The Dog 44062]

I can't find the tweets now but although things going well in Kherson for Ukraine it appears the Russians have made some significant gains in the Donbas in the past hours and Ukraine is in full retreat. Keep in mind this is where Russia has gone "all-in" with their offensive. Both sides have suffered heavy losses there. 

[MillerEP 30491]

 

[MillerEP 30491]

#RedRay Lugansk region (temporarily occupied), 16/06/22, rashists stuck near an exploding warehouse 

[Trey3216 15347]

6 minutes ago, The Dog said:

I can't find the tweets now but although things going well in Kherson for Ukraine it appears the Russians have made some significant gains in the Donbas in the past hours and Ukraine is in full retreat. Keep in mind this is where Russia has gone "all-in" with their offensive. Both sides have suffered heavy losses there. 

This seems like an ebb and flow trend in Donbas. 

-Russia makes a huge offensive. 

-Ukraine fully retreats to pre-dug defensive positions.   

-Ukraine Attacks Russia in their advanced state because Russia tends to overextend themselves. 

-Ukraine Liquidates a bunch of Russians that have run out of food/ammo/medical supplies and shells their heavy equipment to Bolivia.  

-Russia has to retreat further back than their pre-attack position to regroup with new, untrained/inexperienced soldiers.

-Rinse

-Repeat  

 

 

Meanwhile, Ukraine is going to go on a major offensive in the south and retake Kherson, and threaten to cutoff any means of supply there.  Build a sphere of power, and possibly take a look at retaking parts of Crimea which will send the Russians into an absolute tailspin of confusion and inability to supply.  

[InkaUtexas 25986]

50 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Hubris and arrogance on his part, and a security and intelligence bureaucracy that he deliberately manipulated and changed when he came into power, that was afraid to tell him the truth, and a poorly trained and poorly led military.

Hubris and arrogance - he believed the very things he had been saying for 20 years - that Europe and the US were weak, that Ukraine was not a real country.

And his past with the KGB/FSB should have informed him on what happens when you create a security and intelligence apparatus that is more interested in keeping its masters happy and the Russian people in line, rather than providing you with the truth and reality of whatever situation you were in.

Here in the West, both in Europe, and particularly in the US, we have a lot of very smart people whose job it is, is to poke holes in military planning.  Not merely a devil's advocate of sorts with vague notions of what might happen, but actually deconstructing those plans and coming up with every conceivable way they could go wrong.

Putin and Russia don't have that.  Military officers don't want to tell their superiors that they can't do something, and military leadership didn't want to tell Putin the truth.  Russians don't want to risk their careers or jail time telling their superiors what the superiors don't want to hear.

Ukraine spent nearly a decade after 2014 training its military in the ways of the US and Western Europe, complete with NCOs and junior officers who could adjust their plans on the fly.

Russia refused to create a military where young soldiers and NCOs could take the initiative when shit went haywire, partly because they leaned far too heavily on conscripts that were in and out in a year, who were barely competent in their speciality by the time they finished their one year.  That lead to all of those generals and lieutenant colonels and captains being killed in stunning numbers, because when shit goes south, they have to go to the front and take over and try to fix it.

Ego and tradition. aggy style. 

[The Dog 44062]

found it:

 

 

[MillerEP 30491]

On the territory of the Gusev farm, Chertovsky district, Rostov region. Russian Su-25 aircraft number RF-90968 crashed (if I saw it right), pilot died 

 

[MillerEP 30491]

 

[MillerEP 30491]

You can endlessly look at the fire and how someone works "Stugnoy"

[MillerEP 30491]

 

[ShaggyBevo RIP 3868]

I can't find the tweets now but although things going well in Kherson for Ukraine it appears the Russians have made some significant gains in the Donbas in the past hours and Ukraine is in full retreat. Keep in mind this is where Russia has gone "all-in" with their offensive. Both sides have suffered heavy losses there. 

Another story that didn’t make it on here is the Estonian source “Karl” said 41K RU KIA number is floating around in RU military circles.

[956 Worldwide 34715]

2 hours ago, MillerEP said:

 

Some notes on the Slovak MiGs and why I think it’s better not to hold your breath. I feel like this is a repeat story, too.
 

1. Slovakia has 11 MiGs. They lost an airframe to a crash in (I believe) 2020. Amateur error to make in a breaking article.

2. The Slovak DefMin and MOD have been silent on social media. Haven’t seen any breaking news from the usual Slovak outlets. I doubt Business Insider or Visegrad 24 is the one to break this story.

3. Slovakia struggled to keep their 11 in flying order. I suppose that it’s very possible that Ukraine has enough of a spare parts pile to get them in the air again. 
 

We will see if this shakes out.  They had already gotten Polish sign off to fly the airpolicing mission for Slovakia. They were dependent on Russian factory technicians that lived on a Slovak base to keep their MiGs flying till February 2022 and that’s obviously not tenable now. 

[SimonBolivar 10958]

15 minutes ago, ShaggyBevo RIP said:

Another story that didn’t make it on here is the Estonian source “Karl” said 41K RU KIA number is floating around in RU military circles.

That would be 70% of 8 years of US deaths in Vietnam in 4 months for Russia.

[The Dog 44062]

PKK is designated as a terrorist org by both the US and EU.

[The Dog 44062]

 

[Pato del Muerto 52524]

4 hours ago, ShaggyBevo RIP said:

Another story that didn’t make it on here is the Estonian source “Karl” said 41K RU KIA number is floating around in RU military circles.

With the usual 3x wounded?

 

also I had no idea russia had that little patch of land above. 

Edited June 22, 2022 by Pato del Muerto

[atomheartbevo 89727]

3 hours ago, SimonBolivar said:

That would be 70% of 8 years of US deaths in Vietnam in 4 months for Russia.

And even during the heaviest fighting when we were fighting North Vietnamese on a larger scale in the cities, etc., the 3-4 months of the Tet Offensive, we had around 6,000 or so killed.

Russia's losses really are nuts, particularly their officers.

For comparison, the US had 36,000 troops killed over the three years of the (active) Korean conflict, and that was with human waves and heavy artillery.

[atomheartbevo 89727]

Surly motto?

LOL

[atomheartbevo 89727]

Russian Ambassador confused

 

[atomheartbevo 89727]

 

Edited June 22, 2022 by atomheartbevo

[atomheartbevo 89727]

 

[atomheartbevo 89727]

Interesting twitter account - bot that tracks military flights landing in Poland.

https://twitter.com/Goodies4Ukraine

 

[atomheartbevo 89727]

Related

https://www.pcmag.com/news/russia-picks-a-slow-chinese-x86-cpu-to-replace-intelamd-chips

Quote

If both Intel and AMD stop selling processors in your country, what do you do? Russia decided to look to China. The mounting sanctions Russia faces following its invasion of Ukraine include both AMD and Intel halting chip sales in the country. Finding a replacement x86 chip that can run all the same software is a tough proposition, but one that seems to have been solved.

As Tom's Hardware reports,, motherboard maker Dannie(Opens in a new window) just launched a new micro-ATX motherboard in Russia capable of running the KaiXian KX-6640MA system-on-chip. It's developed by Chinese fabless semiconductor company Zhaoxin, which is a joint venture between VIA Technologies and the Shaghai Municipal Government.

Quote

The good news about the KaiXian KX-6640MA chip is it uses the x86 instruction set and therefore should be able to run the same software developed for Intel and AMD platforms. The bad news is, it's not exactly performant. 

CPU Benchmark tested a four-core, four-thread version of the chip running at 3GHz with a 70W TDP and it scored 1,566 points on CPU Mark( for multi-threaded operations. For comparison, the Core i3-12100F scores 14,427, and a Ryzen 5 5500 scores 19,885. There's a similarly-large gap in performance for single-threaded operations—722 points compared to 3,525 for the Core i3, and 3,084 for the Ryzen 5.

Quote

If you think the performance gap is too wide, the situation is actually worse than that. The chip Dannie is set to use caters to both desktop PCs and laptops, meaning its TDP is limited to 25W and it will run at between 2.1-2.7GHz. The one positive is Dannie selected an eight-core version of the processor, so that at least gives it one advantage over the four-core version scored above.

It's safe to say that the KaiXian KX-6640MA is a chip the Russian government can claim replaces the Western alternatives, but that by no means guarantees it will be able to cope with all the tasks thrown at it. In fact, anything beyond running an operating system and office suite may be a push. With Russia set to legalize software piracy, they can at least experiment a lot to see what will run without spending any cash on applications.

 

Edited June 22, 2022 by atomheartbevo

[MillerEP 30491]

 

[MillerEP 30491]

 

[atomheartbevo 89727]

 

[atomheartbevo 89727]

 

[atomheartbevo 89727]

 

[atomheartbevo 89727]

Flying low because their balls are too heavy

 

[atomheartbevo 89727]

Rostov-on-Don borders Ukraine, so it's not that deep of a strike, but it's hitting infrastructure in Russia proper, that Russia needs to support Crimea/Kherson/etc.

Also, misidentified drone - it's a Ukrainian-made drone.

Very nice hit, definitely did some major damage.

 

[NorthLoop 14215]

Good shootin Tex. That fucked some shit up. 

[bolverk 29684]

Closest possible point from which they could've launched on Ukrainian controlled territory would be Zolote. That's about 85 miles away.

[ShaggyBevo RIP 3868]

Rostov-on-Don borders Ukraine, so it's not that deep of a strike, but it's hitting infrastructure in Russia proper, that Russia needs to support Crimea/Kherson/etc.
Also, misidentified drone - it's a Ukrainian-made drone.
Very nice hit, definitely did some major damage.
[/url]  

When you add the Donetsk/Donbas buffer how far is it?

[Neonmoon 38129]

22 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Flying low because their balls are too heavy

 

damn, if those helos fly any lower, they will cut the fucking grass. 

[grazinhorn 472]

25 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

damn, if those helos fly any lower, they will cut the fucking grass. 

[BabaYaga 15301]

11 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

 

lol, best tanks in the world still have tracks.  See Savings Private Ryan or Fury.  Pop the track, it's a 60 ton road block.  Israeli's taught us that and we hones it to a razor edge in Iraq....coordinated armor supported by infantry.  

But that takes, oh, what's the word?  Training.  Lots of training.  

[BabaYaga 15301]

34 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

damn, if those helos fly any lower, they will cut the fucking grass. 

Those guys are talented.  Never done it, but friend went helo-hog eradicating and those pilots can get you close enough to a running pig that some hunters use bows.....flying sideways so you have an open shot out the door.   

[Bevo 13579]

2 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

Those guys are talented.  Never done it, but friend went helo-hog eradicating and those pilots can get you close enough to a running pig that some hunters use bows.....flying sideways so you have an open shot out the door.   

Hopefully with some type of rope tied around your waist.

[BabaYaga 15301]

4 minutes ago, Bevo said:

Hopefully with some type of rope tied around your waist.

I think the seats have seatbelts?

[Bevo 13579]

1 minute ago, BabaYaga said:

I think the seats have seatbelts?

You can't shoot a bow accurately while twisting seated in a helicopter can you?

[Parliament 14260]

13 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

 

But that takes, oh, what's the word?  Training.  Lots of training.  

And friends.  We have lots of friends to draft off of.  Just look at our Abrams tank.  British armor, German gun, Israeli APS.

[BabaYaga 15301]

3 minutes ago, Bevo said:

You can't shoot a bow accurately while twisting seated in a helicopter can you?

Who knows, I've videos of guys doing it.  You loosen the straps and sit perpendicular with your legs hanging out the side.  Thwap!

[The Dog 44062]

Footage from when the Ukrainians hit that ammo dump. ~11 minutes of secondaries going off and Russians running for their lives as the ordinance blows up around them.