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Eastwood

By Eastwood
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AUS-97HORN
AUS-97HORN

For the love of Christ woman,  stop posting the same fucking thing every 20 mins just to make your neurotic self feel better.     Bring something useful to the thread other than your inane babbli

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InkaUtexas
InkaUtexas

I volunteered today. Log/Admin role to replace people for 30-60 days. The operation is in the west, or should the Orcs win will be pulled back behind the NATO wall. Either way the humanitarian effort

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BehoId, The Underminer!

BehoId, The Underminer! 11669

Posted
Posted
11 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

#Ukraine - and only Ukraine - decides what is right for them. Nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine! We are a long way from negotiations because Putin believes in a dictated peace. It is all the more important that we steadfastly stay on course. #Bundestag

that doesn't say Die Ukraine Die.  It's German for The Ukraine, The!

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Viper

Viper 12109

Posted
Posted (edited)
55 minutes ago, KYHorn said:

Maybe the EU should go in and hold a referendum. 

What is to be done? Put its name back to Königsberg and give it back to Germany? Not sure they'd want it and seems wrong to reward the Germans given their behavior. Make it its own country? It's full of Russoans after the post world war ethnic cleansing, what if it just becomes another Belarus? 

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Saint Austin

Saint Austin 745

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Viper said:

What is to be done? Put its name back to Königsberg and give it back to Germany? Not sure they'd want it and seems wrong to reward the Germans given their behavior. Make it its own country? It's full of Russoans after the post world war ethnic cleansing, what if it just becomes another Belarus? 

Partition between Lithuania and Poland??

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texastough

texastough 1129

Posted
Posted

Here are my thoughts while we are on a thin news cycle on the war. I'm not military, don't know shit, except that I've been following this closely since February.

As everyone here knows, Russia started the invasion by trying to take everything at once, with Russian groups running willy nilly and not coordinating, and an abject failure of logistics. They were stretched way too thin and Ukraine's active defense easily picked them off, leading to Russian defeat/withdrawal from the entire northern part of Ukraine.

Since then, Russia has concentrated forces in the east where it is still trying to advance, paving the way with artillery. It has taken a defensive posture elsewhere along the front and has apparently shored up air defenses. In those two months, the front has not changed much, with both sides making minor gains in certain areas. Does this mean a relatively even match in terms of combat power between each side's military, which would lead to a really long war? I don't think so.

This may be me wishcasting, but here is what I think the Ukrainian strategy is, and why this will be over within a few more months. Despite all of Russia's problems with logistics, morale, etc, Russia began with a numbers advantage in hardware and personnel. Ukraine has a much better trained and effective military, pound for pound, but is outgunned/outnumbered. That is changing, however. Russia's losses of hardware and troops (kia, wounded, refusing to fight etc) are mounting. Russia seems to be culminating. At the same time, Ukraine has had 3-4 months to train a ton of new volunteers, and western weapons are really starting to flow. Its not like Ukraine needs more motivation, but Russia's continued atrocities give them plenty of urgency. They know that the faster they defeat Russia, the more civilian lives they save. At the same time, attacking too soon not only risks more troop lives, but risks losing the war, a risk Ukraine cannot take.  

So, what are they waiting for -- when does Ukraine counterattack? I think its pretty simple. Ukraine knows that it needs as great an advantage as it can get in order to go on the offensive. Several factors are converging soon that will set those conditions. First, despite the front line not changing much, the fighting for the last two months has continued to be intense in certain areas, where Russia has tried to advance. This is leading to attrition that favors Ukraine by at lot. In other words, its a lot easier to destroy the Russian military when Ukraine is playing defense. But when Russia stops trying to advance (likely very soon - days or weeks) the attrition will likely slow way down too. 

As mentioned above, Ukraine is adding a lot of freshly trained troops and the really significant western weapons (HIMARS etc) are just now arriving in numbers. So, I think Ukraine is almost done setting conditions. I think the Ukrainian Kharkiv and Kherson counterattacks were largely feints to see how Russia responded, such as how many reinforcements would be sent and from where. When Ukraine starts its true counterattack, I think it will start at one place, like Kherson, but then as soon as Russia moves to defend, Ukraine will start to counter in other areas too, like Karkhiv/Izium etc. With any luck, this will quickly lead to chaos within the Russian forces and total defeat. I'll put it in August, two months from now.

[One thing that has puzzled me is why loitering drones like switchblades haven't made more noise so far, since Ukraine got a bunch of them. They would obviously be a great way to continue attriting Russians while waiting to counterattack. My guess is that the front lines are more or less artillery distance apart, and that is beyond the switchblade's range? In my wildest fantasy, Ukraine has been holding back its loitering drones so that when its counter begins, it can unleash drone swarms advancing ahead of the Ukrainian armor, picking off Russians who run away too slow.] 

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Trey3216

Trey3216 15347

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, texastough said:

Here are my thoughts while we are on a thin news cycle on the war. I'm not military, don't know shit, except that I've been following this closely since February.

As everyone here knows, Russia started the invasion by trying to take everything at once, with Russian groups running willy nilly and not coordinating, and an abject failure of logistics. They were stretched way too thin and Ukraine's active defense easily picked them off, leading to Russian defeat/withdrawal from the entire northern part of Ukraine.

Since then, Russia has concentrated forces in the east where it is still trying to advance, paving the way with artillery. It has taken a defensive posture elsewhere along the front and has apparently shored up air defenses. In those two months, the front has not changed much, with both sides making minor gains in certain areas. Does this mean a relatively even match in terms of combat power between each side's military, which would lead to a really long war? I don't think so.

This may be me wishcasting, but here is what I think the Ukrainian strategy is, and why this will be over within a few more months. Despite all of Russia's problems with logistics, morale, etc, Russia began with a numbers advantage in hardware and personnel. Ukraine has a much better trained and effective military, pound for pound, but is outgunned/outnumbered. That is changing, however. Russia's losses of hardware and troops (kia, wounded, refusing to fight etc) are mounting. Russia seems to be culminating. At the same time, Ukraine has had 3-4 months to train a ton of new volunteers, and western weapons are really starting to flow. Its not like Ukraine needs more motivation, but Russia's continued atrocities give them plenty of urgency. They know that the faster they defeat Russia, the more civilian lives they save. At the same time, attacking too soon not only risks more troop lives, but risks losing the war, a risk Ukraine cannot take.  

So, what are they waiting for -- when does Ukraine counterattack? I think its pretty simple. Ukraine knows that it needs as great an advantage as it can get in order to go on the offensive. Several factors are converging soon that will set those conditions. First, despite the front line not changing much, the fighting for the last two months has continued to be intense in certain areas, where Russia has tried to advance. This is leading to attrition that favors Ukraine by at lot. In other words, its a lot easier to destroy the Russian military when Ukraine is playing defense. But when Russia stops trying to advance (likely very soon - days or weeks) the attrition will likely slow way down too. 

As mentioned above, Ukraine is adding a lot of freshly trained troops and the really significant western weapons (HIMARS etc) are just now arriving in numbers. So, I think Ukraine is almost done setting conditions. I think the Ukrainian Kharkiv and Kherson counterattacks were largely feints to see how Russia responded, such as how many reinforcements would be sent and from where. When Ukraine starts its true counterattack, I think it will start at one place, like Kherson, but then as soon as Russia moves to defend, Ukraine will start to counter in other areas too, like Karkhiv/Izium etc. With any luck, this will quickly lead to chaos within the Russian forces and total defeat. I'll put it in August, two months from now.

[One thing that has puzzled me is why loitering drones like switchblades haven't made more noise so far, since Ukraine got a bunch of them. They would obviously be a great way to continue attriting Russians while waiting to counterattack. My guess is that the front lines are more or less artillery distance apart, and that is beyond the switchblade's range? In my wildest fantasy, Ukraine has been holding back its loitering drones so that when its counter begins, it can unleash drone swarms advancing ahead of the Ukrainian armor, picking off Russians who run away too slow.] 

Yep.  Ukraine is allowing Russia to broadcast its moves.  They're playing a second-player advantage game to Russia's perceived prisoner's dilemma game.  I'd put the bet on Kherson as the main Ukrainian counter, because they will push all the way into Crimea upon attacking.  Russia will have to commit to defend Crimea, because when it's lost...the entirety of the war is lost.  

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texastough

texastough 1129

Posted
Posted
Just now, Trey3216 said:

Yep.  Ukraine is allowing Russia to broadcast its moves.  They're playing a second-player advantage game to Russia's perceived prisoner's dilemma game.  I'd put the bet on Kherson as the main Ukrainian counter, because they will push all the way into Crimea upon attacking.  Russia will have to commit to defend Crimea, because when it's lost...the entirety of the war is lost.  

I have a slightly different take. If Ukraine immediately goes into Crimea, then it is vulnerable to naval/air power. Also, my understanding is Crimea is not as valuable economically, has fewer people etc. I think the outcome in the Donbas is where the war is won/lost.

I think when it takes Kherson, Ukraine stops where the peninsula starts, to stop all Russian resupply from that route. If Ukraine could also push to Mariupol, it would then cut off all the Russians in between (with the Sea of Azov hemming them in the south) and achieve victory without risking their own soldiers' lives. Only after Ukraine takes back the southern coast and Russia is in total retreat/defeat/surrender does Ukraine take the rest of Crimea. My .02. 

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Trey3216

Trey3216 15347

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, texastough said:

I have a slightly different take. If Ukraine immediately goes into Crimea, then it is vulnerable to naval/air power. Also, my understanding is Crimea is not as valuable economically, has fewer people etc. I think the outcome in the Donbas is where the war is won/lost.

I think when it takes Kherson, Ukraine stops where the peninsula starts, to stop all Russian resupply from that route. If Ukraine could also push to Mariupol, it would then cut off all the Russians in between (with the Sea of Azov hemming them in the south) and achieve victory without risking their own soldiers' lives. Only after Ukraine takes back the southern coast and Russia is in total retreat/defeat/surrender does Ukraine take the rest of Crimea. My .02. 

I hear you on the economic/value portion.  I don't think that's why it's valuable.  The value is in the perception.  Crimea is what started the war 8 years ago, it's what will finish it now.  The loss of Crimea by the Russians will indicate to their citizens that this was an abject failure.  

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MillerEP

MillerEP 30491

Posted
Posted (edited)

As for the switchblades, I've heard that they're not very good. So that's why you don't see many of them. They're too weak against hardened positions/vehicles, and the blast radius is too small. So after some trial runs the Ukrainians basically put them in storage. I'll see if I can refind the tweet with a quote. Apparently they're no better than a grenade. 

Edited by MillerEP
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BearSchlong

BearSchlong 8098

Posted
Posted
The Kremlin trolls and propagandists are losing their minds over Lithuania. Important to note it’s only EU sanctioned goods— mostly steel and metallurgic goods. 

I jumped off the train from St. Petersburg to Vilnius and quickly realized that “ačiū” was greeted with a smile and “spaceeba” would get my ass kicked. Circa Jan 1992.
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956 Worldwide

956 Worldwide 34715

Posted
Posted
22 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

FV9A8obXgAIWGDJ?format=jpg&name=medium

...

 

The TV stuff is over the top, foaming at the mouth shit with no basis in reality for the domestic yokels. They want to drag the U.S. and UK into a “big European war,” LOL.  That would be the last big European war ever.  All their threats are aimed at keeping us out. They really do want to exchange Bout (crime: Merchant of Death) for Griner (crime: weed residue and known lesbian), though. 

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89726

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

All their threats are aimed at keeping us out.

Yep. Like a kid on the playground threatening another kid with some "my daddy will beat your daddy up" bullshit to scare the other kid.

3 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

They really do want to exchange Bout (crime: Merchant of Death) for Griner (crime: weed residue and known lesbian), though. 

Yeah, and they aren't hiding it.

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InkaUtexas

InkaUtexas 25974

Posted
Posted
53 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

The TV stuff is over the top, foaming at the mouth shit with no basis in reality for the domestic yokels. They want to drag the U.S. and UK into a “big European war,” LOL.  That would be the last big European war ever.  All their threats are aimed at keeping us out. They really do want to exchange Bout (crime: Merchant of Death) for Griner (crime: weed residue and known lesbian), though. 

Make the trade. Get her out. Bout is never going to work again anyways. Hell, his "warehouse", AKA the Russian Army, well the shelves are pretty empty. 

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Bevo

Bevo 13579

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

This needs support from both parties. Give the Eastern Nato partners and the UAF our Second Generation, better integrating NATO. I hope this happens. 

 

Does Ukraine have pilots to spare for training right now?

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956 Worldwide

956 Worldwide 34715

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Bevo said:

Does Ukraine have pilots to spare for training right now?

From my understanding, it makes almost zero sense to take a MiG jockey and train him on an F-16 or other Western jet.  Just completely different ways of thinking and flying.  Every country in the former Warsaw Pact that switched to western jets has just put new airmen into the pipeline to fly American or Swedish metal and kept the MiG pilots separate with no new recruits.  
 

This could make sense along those lines, it would take some time to get them ready and as far as I know, no F-16s are coming anytime soon. 

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InkaUtexas

InkaUtexas 25974

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, 956 Worldwide said:

From my understanding, it makes almost zero sense to take a MiG jockey and train him on an F-16 or other Western jet.  Just completely different ways of thinking and flying.  Every country in the former Warsaw Pact that switched to western jets has just put new airmen into the pipeline to fly American or Swedish metal and kept the MiG pilots separate with no new recruits.  
 

This could make sense along those lines, it would take some time to get them ready and as far as I know, no F-16s are coming anytime soon. 

That is why I said send over the young cadets. Let the existing pilots defend the air space and start rebuilding their Air Force along NATO lines. One thing is to fly them. The other is to keep them flying. 

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