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Eastwood

By Eastwood
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AUS-97HORN
AUS-97HORN

For the love of Christ woman,  stop posting the same fucking thing every 20 mins just to make your neurotic self feel better.     Bring something useful to the thread other than your inane babbli

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InkaUtexas
InkaUtexas

I volunteered today. Log/Admin role to replace people for 30-60 days. The operation is in the west, or should the Orcs win will be pulled back behind the NATO wall. Either way the humanitarian effort

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Auto Driller

Auto Driller 2506

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It appears that HIMARS is going to make a big difference. I understand why it took time to get them going though. You can’t give someone an advanced rocket system without 100% of the proper training. 
 

I hope they have good missile and counter battery defense systems to protect them because they’re extremely valuable.

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89726

Posted
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1 minute ago, Auto Driller said:

It appears that HIMARS is going to make a big difference. I understand why it took time to get them going though. You can’t give someone an advanced rocket system without 100% of the proper training. 

I hope they have good missile and counter battery defense systems to protect them because they’re extremely valuable.

I wonder if the Russians are accurate enough and fast enough to hit  those systems when they are that far back and are mobile.  They are shooting and scooting.

I’ve  also noticed in the few videos and photos of HIMARS in Ukraine, that there were multiple people with MANPADs around them.

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89726

Posted
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If they are moving massive amounts of ammo from Belarus to Russia/Russian depots, that means Russia is not keeping up its own replenishment and also that Belarus will not be attacking.  Everybody assumed Belarus wouldn’t, because he needs those troops in Belarus to maintain power, but it’s interesting that Russian stocks are that low.

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The Dog

The Dog 44060

Posted
Posted (edited)
39 minutes ago, Auto Driller said:

It appears that HIMARS is going to make a big difference. I understand why it took time to get them going though. You can’t give someone an advanced rocket system without 100% of the proper training. 
 

I hope they have good missile and counter battery defense systems to protect them because they’re extremely valuable.

HIMARS are also a logistical nightmare. One can launch an entire cargo plane full of missiles in a day. That’s why we only sent four at first - to see if Ukraine can handle the logistics to support them.

here’s a Reddit post talking about this:

 

Edited by The Dog
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956 Worldwide

956 Worldwide 34715

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2 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

More Special Operations forthcoming.  Russia to decide how much of the West will remain

Bill Murray Dalai Llama GIF

 

I appreciate Julia Davis and she’s doing God’s work.  But people need to remember that all these Duma members going on First Channel and ranting and raving are basically doing performance art in the vein of our worst Congressional reps, except they have even less actual authority. 

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ShaggyBevo RIP

ShaggyBevo RIP 3868

Posted
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If they are moving massive amounts of ammo from Belarus to Russia/Russian depots, that means Russia is not keeping up its own replenishment and also that Belarus will not be attacking.  Everybody assumed Belarus wouldn’t, because he needs those troops in Belarus to maintain power, but it’s interesting that Russian stocks are that low.

I read those ammo dumps, that went boom this week, had been in the same places since 2015.

Wonder what arrived this week with the range to hit them? HIMARS?
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The Dog

The Dog 44060

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More HIMARS handiwork:

 

6 minutes ago, Chad Fuck said:


Can you post your sources please? That’s the best part of this thread.

It’s upthread. They’ve been fucking their shit up. 
 

now to see if they have the logistics to keep it up. HIMARS are hungry beasts.

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89726

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5 hours ago, 956 Worldwide said:

I appreciate Julia Davis and she’s doing God’s work.  But people need to remember that all these Duma members going on First Channel and ranting and raving are basically doing performance art in the vein of our worst Congressional reps, except they have even less actual authority. 

The biggest takeaway from the Duma members ranting on First Channel is that the louder they rant, the more effective something Ukraine is doing is.  Like if they are ranting about America, it’s because the artillery is working quite well.

Or as another example, if they are ranting about Germany (see below) they are freaked out that Germany is going to section off Nordstream 2 and use it to get LNG from elsewhere.  (or they are upset about weapons Germany is or is about to provide).

These Duma members and the Putin propagandists have access to a lot more information than they are letting on, and their anger at a particular weapons system or country is a very strong indicator that said weapons system or country is helping  Ukraine swing above their weight class..

 

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89726

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This is being reported as the HQ of Russia’s 20th Guards?, but lots of chatter.  Some Russian-leaning sources claimed it was a hospital, but no red crosses/ambulances in large numbers, and the fuel tankers, Tigrs, and bridging equipment lean towards it being an important base of some kind (unless hospitals have their own pontoon bridges).

We know NATO would have solid signals intel that would point Ukraine to HQ situations, plus Ukraine has its own intel and has partisans helping them spot.

 

Edited by atomheartbevo
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SimonBolivar

SimonBolivar 10958

Posted
Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, NorthLoop said:

Rushed from where? Does he live across town or something?

You know with all the Californians moving into Moscow that it's made house prices sky high. All the old school Muscovites had to move to круглый Rock and Джорджtown.

Edited by SimonBolivar
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Scheiss Meister

Scheiss Meister 8408

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, atomheartbevo said:

More Putin headed to the Kremlin.  People claiming it is because more generals killed, but I doubt he’d be rushed to the Kremlin for that.

 

Depends on the general.  I remember seeing a few days ago that the deputy defense minister was headed to Ukraine.  If he was killed in a HQ that was obliterated this evening (their time), I bet that would get his attention.  Or, if a large gathering of colonels and up was assembled for some meeting and it was hit, that would put a good dent in the leadership on the ground.  It was also recently reported that there was another shake up in the upper level leadership in the Russian Army in Ukraine.  Maybe one of them decided to not go quietly.  Lots of possibilities.

Just as long as there aren't reports of similar rapid visits to the White House, 10 Downing St., etc., I won't worry too much.  If we start hearing about those...

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NorthLoop

NorthLoop 14215

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1 hour ago, Scheiss Meister said:

Depends on the general.  I remember seeing a few days ago that the deputy defense minister was headed to Ukraine.  If he was killed in a HQ that was obliterated this evening (their time), I bet that would get his attention.  Or, if a large gathering of colonels and up was assembled for some meeting and it was hit, that would put a good dent in the leadership on the ground.  It was also recently reported that there was another shake up in the upper level leadership in the Russian Army in Ukraine.  Maybe one of them decided to not go quietly.  Lots of possibilities.

Just as long as there aren't reports of similar rapid visits to the White House, 10 Downing St., etc., I won't worry too much.  If we start hearing about those...

I dunno man. I feel like Putin's reaction to ANYONE in his military getting killed is "meh... who's next in line" ..... This feels like something different. 

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956 Worldwide

956 Worldwide 34715

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Notable that Russia is bringing strategic aviation into play again.  At least one strike hit a residential building in Kyiv.  I see this as psychological— reminding Ukrainians that Russia can choose to expand the fight outside of the Donbas to “peaceful” areas.  Also interesting after recent Duma statements that Russia should strike the government quarter and Embassies.

 

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ShaggyBevo RIP

ShaggyBevo RIP 3868

Posted
Posted
Notable that Russia is bringing strategic aviation into play again.  At least one strike hit a residential building in Kyiv.  I see this as psychological— reminding Ukrainians that Russia can choose to expand the fight outside of the Donbas to “peaceful” areas.  Also interesting after recent Duma statements that Russia should strike the government quarter and Embassies.
 

I was wondering if it is related to the RU false flag operation in Belarus that intelligence is saying is coming. Launch missiles from Belarus to claim the false flag is a UKR attack to response to get Belarus citizens behind Belarus getting involved.
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Francisco 2.0

Francisco 2.0 32395

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https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2022/06/in-russia-western-planes-are-falling-apart/

 

Quote

An Airbus A320-232 with the tail number YU-APH made its first flight on December 13, 2005. Since then, the aircraft has clocked millions of miles, flying routes for Air Deccan, Kingfisher Airlines, Bingo Airways, and Syphax Airlines before being taken over by Air Serbia, the Eastern European country’s national flag carrier, in 2014.

 

 

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For eight years, YU-APH flew without any issues—until it landed at 10:37 pm on May 25, 2022, at Moscow’s Sheremetyevo International Airport. It had flown in from Belgrade and was due to take off again on a late-night return within the hour. But there was a problem: The pilot had reported an issue with the plane’s engine casing that needed to be fixed. The supplier of the broken part, Charlotte, North Carolina-based Collins Aerospace, reportedly refused to fix the problem, citing sanctions against Russia resulting from its February 2022 invasion of Ukraine. The plane was stuck. (Collins Aerospace did not respond to a request for comment.)

 

 

Quote

 

It took six days for the problem to be fixed and the A320 to depart Moscow for Belgrade. Air Serbia also did not respond to a request for comment about how the engine casing was replaced or fixed and who manufactured the part. YU-APH managed to remedy its fault, but there are increasing international concerns that planes flying into, from, and around Russia could become a safety risk as sanctions prevent them from being maintained properly. Patrick Ky, executive director of the European Union’s Aviation Safety Agency, said at a recent conference that he felt the situation was “very unsafe.” “In six months—who knows? In one year—who knows?” he said.

 

 

Quote

As of the end of May, there were 876 aircraft in the Russian commercial jet fleet, according to data provided by Ascend by Cirium, an air industry consultancy—down from 968 aircraft in late February. Most of these were made by Airbus or Boeing planes, both of which stopped supplying spare parts to Russian airlines in order to adhere to sanction rules. “They’re not allowed to get any type of part from Boeing or Airbus,” says Bijan Vasigh, an economics professor at Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University. “The transfer of any part or technical expertise to Russia is prohibited.” The problem is that aircraft need constant maintenance, repairs, and replacements.

 

Spoiler

Planes aren’t simple things, with a cornucopia of parts coming together to keep passengers in the air. And because of the high-stakes nature of flight, some parts need to be changed very regularly. Anyone who’s ever watched a plane land from the ground or a viewing observation deck will know that bringing a heavy metal tube to a halt is a challenge. Tires are among the hardest-hit parts of a plane, burning rubber as the brakes are applied, with puffs of smoke often coming from wheels—and plenty of slick, black trails left on the tarmac. Tires are changed every 120 to 400 landings a plane makes. Internal flights running short domestic routes could make four journeys a day, meaning the wheels need to be swapped out every one to three months. Boeing stopped supplying the Russian market on March 1. Airbus followed a day later. “They’re going to wear down,” says Max Kingsley Jones, senior consultant at Ascend by Cirium, of the wheels. “They can’t source replacement tires: That’s a potential risk."

Worn-down tires would just be the first indication of decay. Planes are powered by computer systems that require regular maintenance, with some systems programmed to switch off after a number of flight cycles or calendar days and reset. That includes aircraft engines and auxiliary power units, the electricity generator that pumps compressed air through the cabin in flight and powers the firing of the engine when the plane is first turned on. “Some of those parts are life-limited,” says Kingsley Jones. “They literally have to be taken off the aircraft and replaced when they get to a certain age or a certain number of flights.” Despite the stereotype of running old, dilapidated planes into the ground, Russia’s fleet of aircraft compares favorably with those in much of the rest of the world. The average age of a Russian-run plane is 10.5 years, according to the Association of Tour Operators of Russia. The age of the average passenger plane worldwide is 10.3 years, according to management consultancy Oliver Wyman.

“Don’t misunderstand the Russian capability with aeronautical engineering,” says Kingsley Jones. “They are a very capable nation; they have their own aircraft manufacturing industry and are quite capable of maintaining the aircraft they do.” But as Russian airlines run down their supply of official spare parts, they’re going to be forced to adopt alternative measures. In April and May, Russian authorities widened the pool of companies that can service planes operating in the country beyond international norms. “I don’t think it’s that these aircraft are all flying deathtraps,” says Kingsley Jones. “It’s more that there’s an unknown quantity about the whole thing.” Third-party parts, produced by Russian manufacturers, could well be used to replace broken parts. This is something that happens in the rest of the world but is frowned upon by the aircraft leasing companies that provide most of the planes to carriers. (Russia has said it plans to build a parts manufacturing plant in Kazan by 2023 to fill the supply gap.) “If the situation is not really resolved in the next two or three months, Russian aircraft could be grounded totally or forced to fly with unapproved or unauthorized parts,” says Vasigh.

Sanctions—alongside the global slowdown caused by COVID-19—have cut a huge chunk out of Russia’s international air traffic, according to consultancy Ascend by Cirium. The number of aircraft it tracked on international flights on June 10 was 179, compared to 493 on January 3, 2020. That’s largely because around 70 percent of Aeroflot’s planes are leased by a company that has called in its aircraft, demanding them back from the Russian carrier, according to Vasigh. This means if its planes land in most European countries, they will be confiscated. But while international travel has been grounded, domestic air travel within Russia is continuing at a steady clip. Ascend by Cirium tracked 456 aircraft flying domestically on June 10, 30 more than 2.5 years ago.

The planes are still flying, but the parts aren’t arriving. So what’s happening? “Most probably, Russian operators will have to cannibalize other planes they have,” says Volodymyr Bilotkach, associate professor of air transport management at Singapore Institute of Technology. That causes its own issues. Right now, the concern is about the safety of aircraft flying in the here and now. But it seems unlikely that Russia will be a pariah state forever. Sanctions will eventually be lifted, and aircraft currently flying in Russia—many of which have been illegally sequestered by the Russian state—will want to return to flying routes without a connection to Russia. That will be made trickier by Frankensteining parts from other planes.

“All these parts are quite highly controlled,” says Bilotkach. “The manufacturers know which particular spare part is going to be installed on which aircraft. You need proper records of that.” But required paperwork is unlikely to be maintained. “As soon as an aircraft doesn’t have a proper maintenance record, the value of those aircraft drops to zero,” says Vasigh.

None of the experts WIRED spoke to said they’d rush to step onto a plane operating in Russia at the moment. Bilotkach—a Ukrainian national—equated it to taking international-facing Russian airlines that had significantly improved their safety records in the post-Soviet Union back 30 or more years. “Just look it up on Wikipedia,” he says. “They have a separate page for air crashes in the Soviet Union.”

 

Edited by Francisco 2.0
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KYHorn

KYHorn 17076

Posted
Posted (edited)
10 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

More Putin headed to the Kremlin.  People claiming it is because more generals killed, but I doubt he’d be rushed to the Kremlin for that.

 

 

24 minutes ago, KYHorn said:

Above video for those without telegram:

 

 

Would be a shame if these were related (almost certainly they only release this after he has returned to Russia):

 And this: 

 

 

Edited by KYHorn
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