Русский корабль - иди нахуй

[Pescado_Rojo 19331]

4 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

For @Brisketexan 

 

[Trey3216 15325]

4 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

For @Brisketexan 

 

I’d like to prime her 

[Post Oak 20184]

5 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

For @Brisketexan 

 

[Gatorubet 30088]

1 hour ago, MillerEP said:

The Ambassadors were fired because "they had contact with Russia." That's all they said in the news. So that could mean a lot of things.

 

They possibly got contacted by Russian interests about some kind of off-ramp or resolution that was less than total recovery of Ukrainian land. Even if they were not receptive, any contact with Russian interests that were not reported to Zelenskyy would be a big problem.

[The Dog 43801]

[Schulz2.0 28767]

 

[MillerEP 30339]

 

[MillerEP 30339]

 

[Parliament 14133]

Those shitty Russian Mig's will get blown out of the sky by our American SAM's.  And they know it.

[MillerEP 30339]

 

[MillerEP 30339]

 

[MillerEP 30339]

 

[MillerEP 30339]

 

[MillerEP 30339]

 

[chainsaw 9838]

Those of you who have been following this closely and doing God's work in this thread, how do you separate sunshine pumping from the truth on the ground over there?

[Deej 76560]

8 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

For @Brisketexan 

 

I just Finnished.

[atomheartbevo 89414]

 

 

 

[Fico 1743]

42 minutes ago, Parliament said:

Those shitty Russian Mig's will get blown out of the sky by our American SAM's.  And they know it.

Start putting a dent in those cruise missiles too. 

21 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

Those of you who have been following this closely and doing God's work in this thread, how do you separate sunshine pumping from the truth on the ground over there?

Don't believe either government but the OSINT community is pretty good at calling out bullshit fairly quickly. All that said, still a lot of fog of war. 

[Jackson P. Neighbors 136]

17 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

A very good, thorough response by Dr./Gen. Freuding below. Especially impressive considering it appears he dropped about 6 hits of acid 30 minutes prior.
 

 

 

[Chad Fuck 17563]

 
[/url]  
 

That German general has a bit of the crazy eyes, but he nailed that response.

[Gengs1 2583]

1 hour ago, chainsaw said:

Those of you who have been following this closely and doing God's work in this thread, how do you separate sunshine pumping from the truth on the ground over there?

If the Russians deny it or say it’s not true, it’s always 100% opposite of what they deny.

take 5% of what the Russians say and about 70% of what Ukrainian gov says.

 

[Parliament 14133]

Quote

 

God, damn, FUCK

[Schulz2.0 28767]

31 minutes ago, Parliament said:

God, damn, FUCK

You're surprised that the Russians have the Germans' nuts in a vise?

[Johnny Chimpo 478]

It’s incredible how poorly managed European energy is, can’t understate that enough. They put their neck on the chopping block in cahoots with Russia and it was very obvious for some time how vulnerable they have made themselves. 

[Schulz2.0 28767]

3 minutes ago, Johnny Chimpo said:

It’s incredible how poorly managed European energy is, can’t understate that enough. They put their neck on the chopping block in cahoots with Russia and it was very obvious for some time how vulnerable they have made themselves. 

I believe @Shady Ray mentioned a while back that cheap Russian natural gas allowed Germany to manufacture products and low enough cost to be competitive. Its why part of why they made the decision they made to decommission the nuclear plants and use natural gas/coal. Its why they are still clinging to what they can get from Russia and are riding a line of what they think they can get away with without pissing off Russia.

[The Dog 43801]

It's HIMARS o'clock!

Spoilered for those who don't want to give Dailykos a click: (I understand - they are kind of kooky)

Spoiler

The first season of the Ukraine War was the assault on Kyiv, ending with Russia’s humiliating retreat. The second season was the Battle of Donbas, which ended on a cliff hanger with Russia taking Severodonetsk and Lysychansk (and with it, Luhansk Oblast) amidst horrific casualties on both sides. Season three has just begun, and it picks up our heroes in their continued defense of the rest of Donbas (Donetsk Oblast) while “setting the conditions” for the liberation of Kherson. But mostly, Season Three is about logistics, and the latest cast member, HIMARS, is stealing the show. 

Prior to last night, there had been anywhere from a dozen to 18 ammo and C2 (command and control) targets hit by HIMARS and other Ukrainian long-distance rockets. But last night, the floodgates opened.

This post will be a roundup of those attacks, demonstrating the culmination of years of pent-up Ukrainian frustrations—knowing where Russia kept its weapons stores and being unable to do anything about it. Until now. 

Shakhtarsk

 

Click on the first tweet to get an entire thread full of videos of the burning site. The attack took place at 4 am, and was still burning well into the morning. 

Alchevs’k

 

Chystiakove

Khartsyz'k

Zuhres

Possible consequences of all these attacks? 

Command and Control getting hit hard, too: 

Translation:

- New Kakhovka, Kherson region. - Yesterday's attack on the command post of the 49th army, air defense, and warehouses with missiles for air defense. According to preliminary data, more than a hundred were destroyed, about 200 were wounded, half of whom were severe, some of whom would not survive.

Nova Kakhovka is east of Kherson, and is strategically important for two reasons: 1) it is the mouth of the canal that delivers water to all of Russian-occupied Crimea, and 2) is the location of a major “filtration camp,” Russia’s version of concentration camps.

Down in Kherson, the barracks of the Russian Rosgvardia national guard—Putin’s personal army—got hit by HIMARS overnight. 

Russians are frustrated, like our old friend Igor Strelkov. 

Igor has a point—remember when we worried about Russia interdicting arms supplies into the country? That never happened, and Russia has zero capability to do so. Their Air Force is afraid to fly more than a few kilometers from friendly territory, and certainly won’t push deep into Ukrainian airspace. And remember that Russian air strike against an unguarded Snake Island, attempting to destroy equipment they left behind? They dropped four bomb, three missed the island altogether and landed in water. Forget trying to hit anything accurately. 

They lack precision-guided rockets, preferring to use their unguided trash against residential buildings, needing only to target the general vicinity of a neighborhood to accomplish their terrorism. Their vaunted Spetsnaz special forces units (akin to our Green Berets or Navy SEALS) are clearly incapable of operating behind enemy lines. So HIMARS and its ammo pods and 155 mm artillery shells and all that good stuff can be railed and trucked to the front lines with little impediment. 

The same used to be true for Russia and their supplies, so long as units stayed close to their supply railheads. But that’s no longer the case. 

HIMARS is having a notable and real impact on Ukrainian morale. 

Man at the site of a vicious Russian attack sees a CNN reporter, and his response is a gleeful “HIMARS!” That certainly cuts across any language barriers. 

It certainly looks like Ukraine has a long list of targets to hit, limited only by the $840,000 ammo pods the United States can deliver. At some point, however, when they’re closer to the big expected late-summer, early-fall counterattack, these strikes will start hitting Russia’s air defenses, preparing the way for drones and warcraft to pummel Russia’s front-line defensive emplacements. 

We can really see why the U.S. Marines are ditching all their tube artillery in favor of HIMARS.

Sunday, Jul 10, 2022 · 9:57:13 AM Central Daylight Time · kos

More on the Kherson attack. 
 

The base got hit twice. Once last night, and again at 10 am in the morning. That’s what you do to target first responders and others digging through the rubble. It’s ugly business, war. 

 

 

[atomheartbevo 89414]

3 hours ago, chainsaw said:

Those of you who have been following this closely and doing God's work in this thread, how do you separate sunshine pumping from the truth on the ground over there?

I follow a few rules, some of which others have mentioned.

1. I follow about 15-20 people and organizations who clearly know their shit because of their background (journalists covering Russia for years, generals, defense industry writers, think tanks, etc.) and I watch who they reference/retweet/etc. When this started in February, I was following about 60 people, but over time, I found about 15-20 people who were putting out a lot of good content/data or commentary that covered about 90% of what was happening, and never missed a major event.  These 15-20 people and groups I follow, were all pretty much predicting Russia would invade, and they had all been writing and commenting about Russia and/or Ukraine for years.  They aren't journalists that hopped on an airplane and became experts within hours of making it to Kyiv.
2. OSINT folks are amazing.  Many of them will happily self-correct and/or they will correct others making mistakes (they can be anal-retentive).  And if you are a part of that community and you start showing bias (even for Ukraine), you will get called out, and they will dogpile on you for it.  Some of these people have been into this stuff for years (many of them write for various defense industry journals, blogs, etc., as well as more than a few book authors).  It actually feels like this is sort of their finest hour - all of the tools (software, satellite imagery access, on-the-ground reporting, geolocation, etc.)  and circumstances (they have sources on the ground able to provide quick updates, Ukraine is a democracy and not trying to censor much, if anything (outside of OPSEC stuff), and a shitload of civilians and soldiers in Ukraine have smartphones and are willing to share photos and video) came together for them to truly shine and sort through and present a tremendous amount of data, whether it's extremely intricate maps or massive spreadsheets of dead Russian soldiers picked up from Russian social media or massive spreadsheets of destroyed or captured vehicles, complete with photos for each.
3. As mentioned, if Russia denies it, it's probably true
4. Ukrainian Government is not always accurate, but they are accurate more often than not.  Their numbers about Russian tanks/personnel/etc. destroyed and captured, when compared to the OSINT folks,  are turning out to be a lot closer to the truth than a lot of people originally suspected.  And Russia acts like you would think they would act if the Ukrainian Government's numbers are accurate. While it's possible the Ukrainian Government has duplicate counts in the stats it releases (especially if multiple units are involved), they will also have the most accurate records of what's actually going down simply because it's the people doing the fighting and reporting their results up the chain.  
5. The more angry and the more pseudo-nihilistic Russian TV commentators get about a weapons system or a country, the better it's probably performing, or the country is aiding Ukraine, in reality.  And when some of them are losing their shit and talking about letting the nukes fly, there's a good chance that major shit went down over the past 24 hours, and it's not hard to figure out what pissed them off.
6. Kyiv Independent has been an amazing news organization.  They will self-correct when they make mistakes, and they will even poke holes in things that seem to be really good - they were one of the first media organizations to raise the flag over the comments about the US sending the super-long range HIMARS ammo possibly being falsified.
7. BBC, Reuters, and AP are all usually very good, thanks to having reporters/freelancers on the ground.
8. Most of the "mainstream" media, especially in the US, are running stories written by people who are a few degrees separated from what's happening on the ground.  This isn't necessarily bad, as they are trying to report on what's going on and they can reach a far larger audience, but they just don't usually have the infrastructure in place and on the ground in Ukraine.  There's also been a problem of some of their high-profile reporters/writers being embarrassed at how bad they misjudged last February (versus the OSINT writers), and either they've been trying to make up for it ever since, or they are slanting their coverage in favor of Russia just in case Russia pulls it off and they can say "see, we told you Russia would win!"  

Some caveats:

1. The Russian government heavily censors Russians social media these days.  It's a wonder any info about deaths gets out.  And we know Russians have cremated their own soldiers, so there is a fog of war when it comes to Russian casualties at times, and I think they are way underestimated.
2. The Ukrainian Government is not above releasing false or semi-false information for OPSEC purposes and/or to fuck with the Russians.  They will also force soldiers and people in certain areas to stay offline (not posting to FB/twitter/etc.) if shit is going down, which leads to lulls in information gathering for the OSINT folks.
3. There are folks who present themselves as OSINT types, when in fact they are just war porn types, or people trying to boost their twitter profiles by latching on to current events and trends, including the "HEY LOOK AT ME I'M REPOSTING SHIT FROM OTHER TWITTER ACCOUNTS AND ACTING LIKE I CAME UP WITH THAT" types.
4. There are people in the OSINT community who have supported or done sketchy shit in the past (like Trent Telenko and his election conspiracy nonsense) and it's hard to trust them, because if they buy into some bizarre conspiracy, what else do they buy into?
5. There is stuff released (like audio of Russian phone calls) that sometimes seem very suspect, but ultimately there isn't anything proving many of them wrong, and more often than not, there is evidence of what the calls were about.  It's just hard to know sometimes if Ukrainians learn of an awful incident and then generate a phone call about it, and you can't blame them, since it's just another tool in the modern warfare arsenal and Russia is the master of information warfare.  FWIW, I've run some of them by a Russian friend, and he said they were definitely native Russian speakers, but that's not to say that it wasn't Russians aiding Ukrainians.
6. We don't see as many videos/photos from the Russian side of things, and it's hard to know if that's Russian commanders making sure Russian soldiers aren't putting out things that could lead the Ukrainians to pinpoint units/positions, or if it's a lack of internet or smartphones.  And a shitload of OSINT folks are constantly trawling Russian social media looking for this stuff.
7. Russia clearly has a lot of bots and supporters on social media, and certain events will trigger them like nobody's business, like somebody put out the Bat Signal for them.  That leads to a lot of stuff trending when it shouldn't, and other stuff getting buried.

I'm missing some things, but it's late.

[Gatorubet 30088]

[atomheartbevo 89414]

4 hours ago, chainsaw said:

Those of you who have been following this closely and doing God's work in this thread, how do you separate sunshine pumping from the truth on the ground over there?

This is a very rough list of folks I follow, I'm not on my iPad (and it's more than I thought by around 5).  These are almost all people who have solid backgrounds, and were writing about Russia and/or Ukraine well before February.  A few of them came to prominence/came into being after things started in February because they filled a niche, but I follow them because they document their sources, and are presenting solid information that is not being compiled elsewhere, or they are presenting it in a much better fashion than others.

More than a few of these people lived in Russia or live/lived in Ukraine and so the topic is very personal to them, and they may feel (or are) biased, but arguably they back it up objectively.

No particularly order, all should be linked.  And I'm kind of surprised, I follow a wider range of disciplines and experience than I thought.

1. Julia Davis - comments on Russian state TV (Russian speaker, has followed Russia for years) aka Russian Media Monitor
2. Julia Ioffe - Russian-born, and has written about Russia and Putin for years, she comments a lot about the bigger picture.  She and Julia #1 comment a lot about the bigger picture of Russian politics and Putin's goals.  She mixes in politics, including American politics.
3. Mark Hertling - Retired US General, commanded in Europe, provides lots of military commentary at a higher-level 
4. Mick Ryan (War in the Future) - Australian general, comments a lot about modern/future warfare
5. Rob Lee - OSINT type, provides a shit-ton of photos and videos documenting both Ukraine and Russian actions.  He constantly references back to old tweets to provide updates on whatever it was, and he has an odd system (odd if you aren't used to it) that can be confusing, in that he's working with the tracking people so he'll have tweets that are numbered, and you kind of have to follow his system or otherwise you don't get why he's retweeting tweets from earlier in the day, etc.
6. Jack Detsch - Pentagon reporter, has broken stories about various aid/hardware, as well as what the US military is doing/thinking
7. Kyiv Independent - great news organization.
8. Illia Ponomarenko - writes for Kyiv Independent, does a lot of investigative stuff inside of Ukraine, and long posts from combat zones.  Also calls out a lot of bullshit when he sees it.
9. Ukraine Weapons Tracker - OSINT, tracking stuff from both sides
10. Oryx - OSINT, tracking military hardware losses for both sides, as well as military aid given to Ukraine
11. @KilledInUkraine - OSINT, grim, but they document Russian officers killed in Ukraine using Russian social media and/or photo/identification of Russian officers in the field. It's one thing when you hear about a Russian officer being killed, and another when you realize 170+ Captains or 50+ Lt. Colonels have been killed.
12. Nathan Ruser - another OSINT type, lots of geolocation and mapping stuff, does a lot of solid commentary down in the weeds and up at 35,000 feet
13. Max Seddon - Moscow bureau chief for Financial Times, 
14. @TheStudyofWar - Institute for the Study of War (great website: https://www.understandingwar.org) - they put out a lot of the highly detailed maps everybody is using.
15. Nolan Peterson - writes for Coffee Or Die, Ukraine-based war reporter (since around 2014)
16. @ChristopherJM - journalist, has covered Ukraine/East Europe for over a decade, Ukraine-based
17. Polina Ivanova - another Financial Times reporter specializing in Ukraine/Russia, she covers a lot of the economic and geopolitical fallout, and does investigate stuff (like Russia stealing Ukraine's grain, etc.)
18. Henry Foy - yet another Financial Times reporter covering Ukraine/Russia/etc.
19. War on the Rocks - great site (https://warontherocks.com) last year, predicted Russia's supply problems if they invade Ukraine, lots of deep dives on military topics
20. Jomini of the West - writes on war issues, Russian history, etc.
21. Kevin Rothrock - Writes on Russia, Ukraine War, etc., part of Meduza, that worked to get information into Russia under the censors
22. @PhillipsPOBrien - Professor at University of St Andrews, Scotland, does a lot of long-form writing about these topics, and a good twitter follow
23. Michael MacKay - Another writer, long form commentary about Ukraine/Russia
24. LiveUAMap - Maps and info about Ukraine 
25. Amelia Smith - she covers the aerial side of things, including NATO flights around Ukraine

Yeah, 3-4 Financial Times reporters, but they are covering the shit out of this war, and they do a helluva lot of well-sourced deep dives into the economic issues.

[atomheartbevo 89414]

1 hour ago, atomheartbevo said:

Ukrainian Government is not always accurate, but they are accurate more often than not.

Going back to this, this is from March (and as he points out in the comments, people don't understand that casualties = killed + wounded + captured)

 

[atomheartbevo 89414]

2 hours ago, The Dog said:

It's HIMARS o'clock!

Sounding like Russian artillery is really starting to slow down, and HIMARS taking out all kinds of stuff.

The interesting thing is that Ukraine is being open about this, specifically announcing that Zelensky has given the orders to the Defense Minster to retake the coastal area.

 

[956 Worldwide 34428]

11 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

This is a very rough list of folks I follow, I'm not on my iPad (and it's more than I thought by around 5).  These are almost all people who have solid backgrounds, and were writing about Russia and/or Ukraine well before February.  A few of them came to prominence/came into being after things started in February because they filled a niche, but I follow them because they document their sources, and are presenting solid information that is not being compiled elsewhere, or they are presenting it in a much better fashion than others.

More than a few of these people lived in Russia or live/lived in Ukraine and so the topic is very personal to them, and they may feel (or are) biased, but arguably they back it up objectively.

No particularly order, all should be linked.  And I'm kind of surprised, I follow a wider range of disciplines and experience than I thought.

1. Julia Davis - comments on Russian state TV (Russian speaker, has followed Russia for years) aka Russian Media Monitor
2. Julia Ioffe - Russian-born, and has written about Russia and Putin for years, she comments a lot about the bigger picture.  She and Julia #1 comment a lot about the bigger picture of Russian politics and Putin's goals.  She mixes in politics, including American politics.
3. Mark Hertling - Retired US General, commanded in Europe, provides lots of military commentary at a higher-level 
4. Mick Ryan (War in the Future) - Australian general, comments a lot about modern/future warfare
5. Rob Lee - OSINT type, provides a shit-ton of photos and videos documenting both Ukraine and Russian actions.  He constantly references back to old tweets to provide updates on whatever it was, and he has an odd system (odd if you aren't used to it) that can be confusing, in that he's working with the tracking people so he'll have tweets that are numbered, and you kind of have to follow his system or otherwise you don't get why he's retweeting tweets from earlier in the day, etc.
6. Jack Detsch - Pentagon reporter, has broken stories about various aid/hardware, as well as what the US military is doing/thinking
7. Kyiv Independent - great news organization.
8. Illia Ponomarenko - writes for Kyiv Independent, does a lot of investigative stuff inside of Ukraine, and long posts from combat zones.  Also calls out a lot of bullshit when he sees it.
9. Ukraine Weapons Tracker - OSINT, tracking stuff from both sides
10. Oryx - OSINT, tracking military hardware losses for both sides, as well as military aid given to Ukraine
11. @KilledInUkraine - OSINT, grim, but they document Russian officers killed in Ukraine using Russian social media and/or photo/identification of Russian officers in the field. It's one thing when you hear about a Russian officer being killed, and another when you realize 170+ Captains or 50+ Lt. Colonels have been killed.
12. Nathan Ruser - another OSINT type, lots of geolocation and mapping stuff, does a lot of solid commentary down in the weeds and up at 35,000 feet
13. Max Seddon - Moscow bureau chief for Financial Times, 
14. @TheStudyofWar - Institute for the Study of War (great website: https://www.understandingwar.org) - they put out a lot of the highly detailed maps everybody is using.
15. Nolan Peterson - writes for Coffee Or Die, Ukraine-based war reporter (since around 2014)
16. @ChristopherJM - journalist, has covered Ukraine/East Europe for over a decade, Ukraine-based
17. Polina Ivanova - another Financial Times reporter specializing in Ukraine/Russia, she covers a lot of the economic and geopolitical fallout, and does investigate stuff (like Russia stealing Ukraine's grain, etc.)
18. Henry Foy - yet another Financial Times reporter covering Ukraine/Russia/etc.
19. War on the Rocks - great site (https://warontherocks.com) last year, predicted Russia's supply problems if they invade Ukraine, lots of deep dives on military topics
20. Jomini of the West - writes on war issues, Russian history, etc.
21. Kevin Rothrock - Writes on Russia, Ukraine War, etc., part of Meduza, that worked to get information into Russia under the censors
22. @PhillipsPOBrien - Professor at University of St Andrews, Scotland, does a lot of long-form writing about these topics, and a good twitter follow
23. Michael MacKay - Another writer, long form commentary about Ukraine/Russia
24. LiveUAMap - Maps and info about Ukraine 
25. Amelia Smith - she covers the aerial side of things, including NATO flights around Ukraine

Yeah, 3-4 Financial Times reporters, but they are covering the shit out of this war, and they do a helluva lot of well-sourced deep dives into the economic issues.

These are all great follows.  I’d add that Michael Kofman is the best at military analysis of the Russians, although he doesn’t tweet as much. The UK Defence Ministry puts out very, very good summaries.  Meduza.io has some English reporting and is fantastic for insight into WTF is happening inside Russia. 

[atomheartbevo 89414]

1 hour ago, 956 Worldwide said:

These are all great follows.  I’d add that Michael Kofman is the best at military analysis of the Russians, although he doesn’t tweet as much. The UK Defence Ministry puts out very, very good summaries.  Meduza.io has some English reporting and is fantastic for insight into WTF is happening inside Russia. 

I missed those, they are on my big list.

I also like Perun, the Australian military accountant guy.

Speaking of…

 

[Fico 1743]

8 hours ago, 956 Worldwide said:

These are all great follows.  I’d add that Michael Kofman is the best at military analysis of the Russians, although he doesn’t tweet as much. The UK Defence Ministry puts out very, very good summaries.  Meduza.io has some English reporting and is fantastic for insight into WTF is happening inside Russia. 

Was coming to add Kofman and Meduza is excellent.

If you interested into getting some background on the Russian military before the conflict Kofman has some great lectures on YouTube about Russian attempts at modernization and reorganization. 

He also does a (sometimes) weekly podcast on War on the Rocks and some Sundays with Dmitri Alperovitch, including last night:

 

 

Have we mentioned bellingcat? They are incredibly good investigative journalists that really go deep to call out Russian bullshit about all kinds of shit including assignations, MH17, fraud, etc. They are prominent in the HBO show on Navaly. 

[The Dog 43801]

Aftermath of HIMARS o'clock in Kherson: (no embed is deliberate)

https://twitter.com/mdmitri91/status/1546488871021694976?s=20&t=OuVur_dxbDJYcfMmnrymtw

 

[atomheartbevo 89414]

1 hour ago, Fico said:

Have we mentioned bellingcat? They are incredibly good investigative journalists that really go deep to call out Russian bullshit about all kinds of shit including assignations, MH17, fraud, etc. They are prominent in the HBO show on Navaly. 

Another one I forgot, including one of the contributors/founders.

https://twitter.com/christogrozev

Edited July 11, 2022 by atomheartbevo

[atomheartbevo 89414]

Wild Shell Hunger, another great band name

 

[Parliament 14133]

23 minutes ago, The Dog said:

Aftermath of HIMARS o'clock in Kherson: (no embed is deliberate)

https://twitter.com/mdmitri91/status/1546488871021694976?s=20&t=OuVur_dxbDJYcfMmnrymtw

 

"Fuckery."  Nice.

[atomheartbevo 89414]

Another ammo dump and this guy is a solid follow

 

Edited July 11, 2022 by atomheartbevo

[atomheartbevo 89414]

 

[atomheartbevo 89414]

Finding hidden stuff in the forest.  Either locals called it in, or they saw it on thermal imaging.

Russia being assholes as usual.

 

Edited July 11, 2022 by atomheartbevo

[Fico 1743]

8 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

I missed those, they are on my big list.

I also like Perun, the Australian military accountant guy.

Speaking of…

 

Just finished Perun's new video. As always he does some great analysis. Interesting point he made was Russians brag how many shells they fire a day, even though we know that's due to accuracy and ISR problems, leading to barrels burning out faster.

Seeing other Russian/Soviet systems, I doubt they have highly proficient way for barrel replacement and regular maintenance on the pieces. 

[956 Worldwide 34428]

1 hour ago, Fico said:

Was coming to add Kofman and Meduza is excellent.

If you interested into getting some background on the Russian military before the conflict Kofman has some great lectures on YouTube about Russian attempts at modernization and reorganization. 

He also does a (sometimes) weekly podcast on War on the Rocks and some Sundays with Dmitri Alperovitch, including last night:

 

 

Have we mentioned bellingcat? They are incredibly good investigative journalists that really go deep to call out Russian bullshit about all kinds of shit including assignations, MH17, fraud, etc. They are prominent in the HBO show on Navaly. 

This is a good catch and as @atomheartbevo mentioned, Christo Grozev who works with them is also a great follow. I’m pretty sure he is on Russia’s sanctions list, so you know he’s under their skin.

Former Ambassaor Mike McFaul is an extremely good follow as well, he has a good sense of moral clarity and was a Russia expert long before he got tapped as the envoy for Obama. 

[956 Worldwide 34428]

The German Minister for Economy was in Prague today and ate a bit of crow:

Quote

Our economic strategy was directed towards gas coming from Russia, which is why the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines were constructed. Today we know this was a great political mistake. 

https://www.seznamzpravy.cz/clanek/ekonomika-firmy-byla-chyba-orientovat-se-tolik-na-rusko-priznal-nemecky-ministr-v-praze-208634
 

[956 Worldwide 34428]

27 minutes ago, Fico said:

Just finished Perun's new video. As always he does some great analysis. Interesting point he made was Russians brag how many shells they fire a day, even though we know that's due to accuracy and ISR problems, leading to barrels burning out faster.

Seeing other Russian/Soviet systems, I doubt they have highly proficient way for barrel replacement and regular maintenance on the pieces. 

Consider how fucked up it is that in Europe in the 21st century, a great power’s army is putting enough lead in the air to burn out their cannons’ barrels.  This is Battle of the Somme type shit. Sometimes you just have to pause and realize what all this really means. 

[Chad Fuck 17563]

4 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Consider how fucked up it is that in Europe in the 21st century, a great power’s army is putting enough lead in the air to burn out their cannons’ barrels.  This is Battle of the Somme type shit. Sometimes you just have to pause and realize what all this really means. 

That people don't learn from the mistakes of their fathers?  Or in this case, their grandfathers?

[Brisketexan 104586]

Consider how fucked up it is that in Europe in the 21st century, a great power’s army is putting enough lead in the air to burn out their cannons’ barrels.  This is Battle of the Somme type shit. Sometimes you just have to pause and realize what all this really means. 

It means we’re in a world war. Nobody wants to say the words, but when it’s a full on hot European frontal war, with the US VERY involved…that’s what it is.

[Fico 1743]

24 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

It means we’re in a world war. Nobody wants to say the words, but when it’s a full on hot European frontal war, with the US VERY involved…that’s what it is.

Agree and that's a full industrial war. Hopefully the munition factories have already been ramping up. 

[cactusflinthead 27594]

11 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

This is a very rough list of folks I follow, I'm not on my iPad (and it's more than I thought by around 5).  These are almost all people who have solid backgrounds, and were writing about Russia and/or Ukraine well before February.  A few of them came to prominence/came into being after things started in February because they filled a niche, but I follow them because they document their sources, and are presenting solid information that is not being compiled elsewhere, or they are presenting it in a much better fashion than others.

More than a few of these people lived in Russia or live/lived in Ukraine and so the topic is very personal to them, and they may feel (or are) biased, but arguably they back it up objectively.

No particularly order, all should be linked.  And I'm kind of surprised, I follow a wider range of disciplines and experience than I thought.

1. Julia Davis - comments on Russian state TV (Russian speaker, has followed Russia for years) aka Russian Media Monitor
2. Julia Ioffe - Russian-born, and has written about Russia and Putin for years, she comments a lot about the bigger picture.  She and Julia #1 comment a lot about the bigger picture of Russian politics and Putin's goals.  She mixes in politics, including American politics.
3. Mark Hertling - Retired US General, commanded in Europe, provides lots of military commentary at a higher-level 
4. Mick Ryan (War in the Future) - Australian general, comments a lot about modern/future warfare
5. Rob Lee - OSINT type, provides a shit-ton of photos and videos documenting both Ukraine and Russian actions.  He constantly references back to old tweets to provide updates on whatever it was, and he has an odd system (odd if you aren't used to it) that can be confusing, in that he's working with the tracking people so he'll have tweets that are numbered, and you kind of have to follow his system or otherwise you don't get why he's retweeting tweets from earlier in the day, etc.
6. Jack Detsch - Pentagon reporter, has broken stories about various aid/hardware, as well as what the US military is doing/thinking
7. Kyiv Independent - great news organization.
8. Illia Ponomarenko - writes for Kyiv Independent, does a lot of investigative stuff inside of Ukraine, and long posts from combat zones.  Also calls out a lot of bullshit when he sees it.
9. Ukraine Weapons Tracker - OSINT, tracking stuff from both sides
10. Oryx - OSINT, tracking military hardware losses for both sides, as well as military aid given to Ukraine
11. @KilledInUkraine - OSINT, grim, but they document Russian officers killed in Ukraine using Russian social media and/or photo/identification of Russian officers in the field. It's one thing when you hear about a Russian officer being killed, and another when you realize 170+ Captains or 50+ Lt. Colonels have been killed.
12. Nathan Ruser - another OSINT type, lots of geolocation and mapping stuff, does a lot of solid commentary down in the weeds and up at 35,000 feet
13. Max Seddon - Moscow bureau chief for Financial Times, 
14. @TheStudyofWar - Institute for the Study of War (great website: https://www.understandingwar.org) - they put out a lot of the highly detailed maps everybody is using.
15. Nolan Peterson - writes for Coffee Or Die, Ukraine-based war reporter (since around 2014)
16. @ChristopherJM - journalist, has covered Ukraine/East Europe for over a decade, Ukraine-based
17. Polina Ivanova - another Financial Times reporter specializing in Ukraine/Russia, she covers a lot of the economic and geopolitical fallout, and does investigate stuff (like Russia stealing Ukraine's grain, etc.)
18. Henry Foy - yet another Financial Times reporter covering Ukraine/Russia/etc.
19. War on the Rocks - great site (https://warontherocks.com) last year, predicted Russia's supply problems if they invade Ukraine, lots of deep dives on military topics
20. Jomini of the West - writes on war issues, Russian history, etc.
21. Kevin Rothrock - Writes on Russia, Ukraine War, etc., part of Meduza, that worked to get information into Russia under the censors
22. @PhillipsPOBrien - Professor at University of St Andrews, Scotland, does a lot of long-form writing about these topics, and a good twitter follow
23. Michael MacKay - Another writer, long form commentary about Ukraine/Russia
24. LiveUAMap - Maps and info about Ukraine 
25. Amelia Smith - she covers the aerial side of things, including NATO flights around Ukraine

Yeah, 3-4 Financial Times reporters, but they are covering the shit out of this war, and they do a helluva lot of well-sourced deep dives into the economic issues.

This ought to be stickied with 956' addenda.

[RDCanecutter 26250]

17 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

 

 

I like the General's words, but damn he's got that scary German hand-puppet stare.