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Posted

Any oil and gas guys here? Just curious with the US and the world in recession, how long do you think gas prices will remain high after the war ends? Off the cuff, I think Russia would be basically in anarchy if Putin loses power so I assume Russian oil will be off the market for a long time if Ukraine wins.

Posted (edited)
21 minutes ago, Etexhorn13 said:

Could someone explain the significance of this?

NATO has troops in Kosovo who will fuck Serbia's shit up if they start anything.

The Russians aren't coming because the troops they would use to help were killed in Ukraine.

 

Edited by The Dog
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Posted
8 hours ago, Bevo said:

Any oil and gas guys here? Just curious with the US and the world in recession, how long do you think gas prices will remain high after the war ends? Off the cuff, I think Russia would be basically in anarchy if Putin loses power so I assume Russian oil will be off the market for a long time if Ukraine wins.

The US isn’t in a recession. Technicals prove that many other countries are.

OPEC needs a supply increase for it to go down. We have many ways of stepping up production here locally but we aren’t for many reasons.

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Posted
9 hours ago, Bevo said:

Any oil and gas guys here? Just curious with the US and the world in recession, how long do you think gas prices will remain high after the war ends? Off the cuff, I think Russia would be basically in anarchy if Putin loses power so I assume Russian oil will be off the market for a long time if Ukraine wins.

 

1 hour ago, DaggerHorns said:

The US isn’t in a recession. Technicals prove that many other countries are.

OPEC needs a supply increase for it to go down. We have many ways of stepping up production here locally but we aren’t for many reasons.

Also, barring catastrophic destruction inside of Russia of its oil and gas production and transportation infrastructure, I don't believe Russian oil would go off the market.  There would be an internal struggle for control of the profits, but I'd expect the production to continue.

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Posted
1 hour ago, Bevo said:

Any oil and gas guys here? Just curious with the US and the world in recession, how long do you think gas prices will remain high after the war ends? Off the cuff, I think Russia would be basically in anarchy if Putin loses power so I assume Russian oil will be off the market for a long time if Ukraine wins.

Their oil is still being used and they haven't decreased production. It's just going to countries like China and India. They also are transporting the oil in neutral ships and shipping their gas through their own LNG terminals to avoid sanctions. If Russian oil is back on the market, I think prices might go down a bit but I think the market remains tight.

Posted
3 minutes ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

Have we discussed India much in this thread? Because fuck India.

You mean the guys buying cheap oil and turning around and selling it to us at a premium?  Those guys? 

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Posted
4 minutes ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

Have we discussed India much in this thread? Because fuck India.

I think we all kind of just gave up on them back in March.  

Posted
26 minutes ago, utee94 said:

 

Also, barring catastrophic destruction inside of Russia of its oil and gas production and transportation infrastructure, I don't believe Russian oil would go off the market.  There would be an internal struggle for control of the profits, but I'd expect the production to continue.

What I wonder is what happens to Russia after it loses to Ukraine? Putin will be out and there will be a power vacuum. Does that mean civil war or something else? Does oil and gas supply continue in such an environment? I don't know how closely Gazprom is tied to the Kremlin, but controlling O&G in Russia is controlling the government.

Posted
1 minute ago, Pods said:

Unconfirmed reports that Ukraine killed the Russian soldier that was captured on video castrating a Ukrainian soldier. Some saying he was captured, but most saying Ukraine killed him. 

If it's true, I hope his death was slow and painful. If it's not true yet, they'll get him eventually. 

 

 

 

I truly hope this is the case, but until I see proof I'm going to assume he's getting free drinks, medals, and pats on the back by his other fucked up Russian comrades.

 

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, MillerEP said:

^Some of the comments on this tweet are gold.

Re the second floor HIMARS: "How did you get that big ol' Harley up on the high dive, Coy?"

Edited by Scheiss Meister
Weird double post.
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Posted

The U.S. is officially saying it wasn’t HIMARS that hit the POW prison.  Stopping short of saying “it was Russia” but that’s clearly where this is going. Given that the HIMARS angle was key to the Russian claims, interesting to see if they pivot to some other weapon system or double down on HIMARS.  Officially of course, their deniable channels will double down. 
 

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/08/01/us-rockets-not-used-ukraine-prison-strike-00048948

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Posted

BBC looking at what rural Russians think of the war, and it’s basically what you think

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62331061

Quote

But what of the Russian public? More than five months on, do Russians believe their president took the right decision?  In the big cities, such as Moscow and St Petersburg, it's not uncommon to hear people criticise the Kremlin's "special operation". 

But I'm a long way from the capital after a nine-hour drive north-west of Moscow. I leave the village and head to the regional capital, Pskov. As I drive past a military base, the slogan on the poster outside catches my eye: "The borders of Russia never end!"

 

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Posted

From the replies on that bullshit of HIMARS on the second story of a building

Quote

If a russian flagship can take a break on the bottom of the Black sea, don't see why two HIMARS cannot have a moment of privacy on the second floor of a building

Quote

Of course they took the stairs m, they are “High Mobility” after all

Lot of laughs in that thread.

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Posted
4 hours ago, utee94 said:

Also, barring catastrophic destruction inside of Russia of its oil and gas production and transportation infrastructure, I don't believe Russian oil would go off the market.  There would be an internal struggle for control of the profits, but I'd expect the production to continue.

What happens when that infrastructure starts breaking down?  All the Western oil/service companies bailed early on.

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Posted
4 hours ago, Bevo said:

What I wonder is what happens to Russia after it loses to Ukraine? Putin will be out and there will be a power vacuum. Does that mean civil war or something else? Does oil and gas supply continue in such an environment? I don't know how closely Gazprom is tied to the Kremlin, but controlling O&G in Russia is controlling the government.

Putin has made sure that nobody is as feared or strong as he is, so whoever comes after will probably be looking to make deals.  Places like Chechnya will probably bail on Russia, along with some other republics .  I don’t see Belarus surviving under its current leadership.

Whoever comes after Putin will have to make deals quickly, both internally and externally, because the EU is making moves to completely wean itself off of Russian oil and gas, and Western companies are looking to get Ukrainian oil and gas into production in a big way, with the EU being a principal buyer.

Shit is going to be the Wild West in Russia. I imagine they will be chaotic for quite a while.

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Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

What happens when that infrastructure starts breaking down?  All the Western oil/service companies bailed early on.

It's so vital to their economy, I think they'll commit every last resource they have, to maintaining it.  They'll patch it with duct tape, bailing wire, and the dead bodies of 100,000 Russians to keep it together.

If/when the Russian oil stops flowing, it'll pretty much signify the end of Russia.  I don't think it'll get that far. 

Edited by utee94
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Posted
7 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

What happens when that infrastructure starts breaking down?  All the Western oil/service companies bailed early on.

I'd assume that pressure bursting pipes is something that they will be completely unable to deal with. 

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Posted
30 minutes ago, MillerEP said:

 

So a little more context for the article.  They aren’t just fighting “heathens,” they are repeating the Baptism of Rus’, which in history was carried out in Kyiv by Prince Volodymyr and brought Orthodoxy to Ukraine and all Rus’. It is also Ukrainian Statehood Day.  Putin is to be compared to Aleksandr Nevsky, who also unified medieval Rus’ and defeated the Swedes at the Neva and most famously the Teutonic Knights on the famous Battle on the Ice where the heavy Knight cavalry crashed through a frozen lake. The collective West is to be compared to the Commonwealth, the Knights, Sweden, the Third Reich, and NATO. 

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