Русский корабль - иди нахуй

[Fico 1743]

51 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

I want to chime in here to note that there are several posters on this thread that know shit about fuck and are clearly not the average bear when it comes to security and military affairs, or this conflict in particular. It’s a pretty cool asset on a football board and their posts stand out and are easy to spot. 

Same. Being addicted to this thread has made me realize I chose careers poorly and should have been better at football. 

[atomheartbevo 89458]

This is floating around the twitter

 

[Auto Driller 2504]

Glad to see the Russians fleeing Crimea like rats off a sinking ship. 

[atomheartbevo 89458]

 

 

[NorthLoop 14098]

Those two big explosions are too simultaneous to be secondary. 

[atomheartbevo 89458]

1 minute ago, NorthLoop said:

Those two big explosions are too simultaneous to be secondary. 

Yeah, could be missiles with submunitions, including using HIMARS with the long-range stuff, but nobody has video of missiles headed that way.

It's interesting.  Would be cooler than HIMARS if it was Ukrainian special operations folks.

I saw a few people discussing that the timing of this was meant to be as visible as possible, captured on plenty of cell phones.

[NorthLoop 14098]

1 minute ago, atomheartbevo said:

Yeah, could be missiles with submunitions, including using HIMARS with the long-range stuff, but nobody has video of missiles headed that way.

It's interesting.  Would be cooler than HIMARS if it was Ukrainian special operations folks.

I saw a few people discussing that the timing of this was meant to be as visible as possible, captured on plenty of cell phones.

Could be planted bombs on a timer, but they sure as hell weren't secondary explosions. 

[Fico 1743]

10 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

 

 

Glad they are so stupid number 1,456,271. There is a dedicated set of isolated ammunition bunkers on the north end of the base but fuck using those. 

I'm calling the babushkas sent pies full of C4 to ground crews. 

[InkaUtexas 25531]

Agree with this. Don't care how, just glad it went BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOMMMMMMM 

https://twitter.com/The_Lookout_N/status/1557066029569900545

 

[956 Worldwide 34462]

However the Ukrainians got it, the tactical win is huge. The messaging win is bigger:

You are not home. You are not safe. You should not be here on vacation. This is not Russia. 
 

And to answer an earlier question, I support arming Ukraine so they can control all of Ukraine as recognized under international law. Like they did pre-2014. Russia lost any credibility they had to negotiate on that point. 

[The Dog 43829]

https://twitter.com/defenceu/status/1557061408340287490?s=21&t=aSgyzF-3QVjyxKUExnn4Ew

[InkaUtexas 25531]

3 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

However the Ukrainians got it, the tactical win is huge. The messaging win is bigger:

You are not home. You are not safe. You should not be here on vacation. This is not Russia. 
 

And to answer an earlier question, I support arming Ukraine so they can control all of Ukraine as recognized under international law. Like they did pre-2014. Russia lost any credibility they had to negotiate on that point. 

Yep. They are not even pretending to give a fuck about human casualties or destruction. Their doctrine, as pointed out earlier, has not changed since WW2. 

[ShaggyBevo RIP 3868]

There's some red in the smoke, too, which is a signature of nitrates burning.  I think that, unlike the Japanese at Pearl Harbor, Ukraine targeted both ammo and fuel storage.  Airplanes and helicopters without fuel and munitions are just fancy gate guards and scrap metal.

But the planes getting destroyed as well would be bad ass as it would be the largest single day RU aviation loss ever. There was over a billion dollars of planes parked there, 4 hours earlier, which Russia cannot replace.

[InkaUtexas 25531]

https://twitter.com/dkaleniuk/status/1557069273109069825

 

[ShaggyBevo RIP 3868]

So... Not BabaYaga, then?

He’s just asking questions.

[InkaUtexas 25531]

1 minute ago, ShaggyBevo RIP said:

But the planes getting destroyed as well would be bad ass as it would be the largest single day RU Air Force loss ever. There was over a billion dollars of planes parked there, 4 hours earlier, which Russia cannot replace.

Maybe Iran, Syria and the Norks can loan them some 

[Scheiss Meister 8399]

5 minutes ago, ShaggyBevo RIP said:

But the planes getting destroyed as well would be bad ass as it would be the largest single day RU Air Force loss ever. There was over a billion dollars of planes parked there, 4 hours earlier, which Russia cannot replace.

Oh, I agree that you go after the aircraft, too.  Lost equipment has to be replaced, too.  When supplies are more concentrated, giving more bang for the buck as it were, they are the better target.

[NorthLoop 14098]

4 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Maybe Iran, Syria and the Norks can loan them some 

[ShaggyBevo RIP 3868]

Maybe Iran, Syria and the Norks can loan them some 

Which brings up the question of what percentage of MIG parts/metals originated in Ukraine?

[The Dog 43829]

[InkaUtexas 25531]

7 minutes ago, ShaggyBevo RIP said:

Which brings up the question of what percentage of MIG parts originated in Ukraine?

From what I remember, quite a bit, but that changed. The Backfire bombers were made in the Ukraine. But a lot of those factories moved. 

 

[Scheiss Meister 8399]

The Ukrainian military is just striving to be the world's largest distributor of Mig and Sukhoi parts.

[The Dog 43829]

[Parliament 14141]

1 hour ago, 956 Worldwide said:

I want to chime in here to note that there are several posters on this thread that know shit about fuck and are clearly not the average bear when it comes to security and military affairs, or this conflict in particular. It’s a pretty cool asset on a football board and their posts stand out and are easy to spot. 

Thank you.  You're too kind. 

(I'm joking of course. I'm just a moron in the background.)

[Gengs1 2583]

2 minutes ago, The Dog said:

 

It just needs some duct tape and you can buff that out. Going to fly in no time

[Schulz2.0 28786]

 

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12301]

i consider myself a bit of a philanthropist.

[MillerEP 30339]

^Knocked out because of the HARMS

[The Dog 43829]

[atomheartbevo 89458]

Given that she’s close to Putin, I’m guessing she had permission, or a directive, to publicly state it was a Ukrainian attack.

 

[956 Worldwide 34462]

Insightful read on what all this means for Ukrainian-Russian relations for generations if not more. We are inching into Balkan feud territory. 
 

 

[956 Worldwide 34462]

2 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Given that she’s close to Putin, I’m guessing she had permission, or a directive, to publicly state it was a Ukrainian attack.

 

They’ll very easily backtrack, or more likely just continue to spout two realities as once depending on whom they’re talking to. Newspeak is real in Putin’s Russia. 

[Auto Driller 2504]

2 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Given that she’s close to Putin, I’m guessing she had permission, or a directive, to publicly state it was a Ukrainian attack.

 

What red line? After all, this was just an accidental ammo explosion. Right?

[MillerEP 30339]

^lol

 

[MillerEP 30339]

 

[Rimbo 25788]

Hertling explaining the difference between tactics and strategy here.

Edited August 9, 2022 by Rimbo

[The Dog 43829]

 

[atomheartbevo 89458]

Best NAFO avatar I've seen

 

[MillerEP 30339]

^😆

^These are on the other side of Kherson

[The Dog 43829]

20 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Best NAFO avatar I've seen

 

 

[Pescado_Rojo 19332]

1 hour ago, Schulz2.0 said:

 

What's left in the wreath fund? 

[Fico 1743]

1 hour ago, 956 Worldwide said:

They’ll very easily backtrack, or more likely just continue to spout two realities as once depending on whom they’re talking to. Newspeak is real in Putin’s Russia. 

Comrade, obviously this was an act of goodwill 

[kevwun 15667]

Lol at the country you invaded crossing a red line by having the nerve to attack an airbase located inside the territory of said invaded country.

[Fico 1743]

2 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Best NAFO avatar I've seen

 

The fellas are crushing it today. 

 

[Laxtonto 11934]

So we are now to the point that 1) the operational radius of missile strikes have increased due to a reduction in SAM coverage due to the need of those unites either closer to the front and/or them being in limited availability and 2) we have moved on from ammo, critical infrastructure, and command structure to now airfields.

 

Think of each SAM battery as a forward facing arc that covers a limited footprint. Those footprints layer to an extent and so the further something goes, the more of those zones of fire it encounters. As the ones on the front are neutralized and they are a limited resource the smart play is to transfer some of those from the rear (that theoretically the least likely targets due to distance, forward coverage and time delayed on reconnaissance) towards the front to do everything you can to protect the necessities to keep the war machine running at the front. 
 

It will be extremely telling if this is just a one off, like the successful attack on Cruiser or if it becomes a regular part of the rotation. If they can lob their less sophisticated long range munitions and consistently hit the Crimea, then that means they in effect have very very limited SAM cover and are stripping the rear to help protect the front.

The other thing to track would be what is the target mix of these long range shots and how frequently do they focus on ammo and fuel vs command infrastructure and airfields. If they move away from ammo and fuel, that generally implies that the lag time from deliveries there to the front is now so long that the other systems will wipe them out at their staging location on the way to the front.  
 

Use the long range attacks as a barometer of what they can’t get to see he front fast enough. If they have blanketed the front to the point that they have faith that anything that gets to the front in mass they can easily target, then there is no need to waste the long range shots on those targets (unless there is something that they can’t say no to) and instead will be targeting air, command infrastructure, and targets of increased political and propaganda value.

 

Make no mistake, if this is actually a Ukrainian ordnance and not from the tree HIMARS and this happens on the regular basis, then the Russian forces are in way worse shape than we think.

[MillerEP 30339]

 

[staboner 4959]

3 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Best NAFO avatar I've seen

 

[MillerEP 30339]

 

[Neonmoon 38127]

Can’t wait till Ukraine eventually takes out the bridge in Kerch 

[Auto Driller 2504]

1 minute ago, Neonmoon said:

Can’t wait till Ukraine eventually takes out the bridge in Kerch 

I’m guessing it might be a lot sooner than we think.