Русский корабль - иди нахуй

[Fico 1743]

Someone had mentioned it up thread and seeing more speculation tonight about Ukr's GRIM-2 potentially being fully armed and operational battle station. It's capable of firing 2 SRBMs from the same TEL matching the two hits at the air field. Interestingly before 2/24, the project was financially backed by the Saudis.

 

[MillerEP 30339]

https://www.ibtimes.com/russia-brought-700-film-extras-melitopol-film-propaganda-video-referendum-3599655

Russia Brought 700 Film Extras To Melitopol To Film Propaganda Video On 'Referendum'
By Dane Enerio
08/09/22 AT 7:05 AM

[atomheartbevo 89458]

1 hour ago, Laxtonto said:

The other thing to track would be what is the target mix of these long range shots and how frequently do they focus on ammo and fuel vs command infrastructure and airfields. If they move away from ammo and fuel, that generally implies that the lag time from deliveries there to the front is now so long that the other systems will wipe them out at their staging location on the way to the front. 

They've hit a lot of ammo dumps for the ground forces, they are hitting bridges and other transportation structure, they are hitting command/control infrastructure, and they've been hitting air defense infrastructure here and there (may have ramped up now that they have HARM stuff in the area).

On the one hand, I'd rather they be hitting aircraft, but we know those aircraft are somewhat protected from each other, at least as protected as can be with earthen berms/revetments, and taking out a few aircraft is awesome, but still leaves other aircraft available.  If they can hit the ammo dumps for the aircraft, that has the potential to take more aircraft out of the picture in the short term.   Note: Forget this if they have the long-range HIMARS ammo which could in theory take out a lot of aircraft with an airburst. 

Hauling ammo for those aircraft would have to be done on rail, which is either from Belarus or deeper in Russia, since stripping ammo from airbases near the Ukrainian border then takes those aircraft out of the equation - robbing Peter to pay Paul.  That's going to take days, and if they are putting the hurt on rail lines along the border, that could stretch out the supply chain a long ways.  

This is extremely fascinating, and I hope we get some really detailed studies when this is all over, because I'm fascinated by the Ukrainian target selection and how good they've been at it.

[The Dog 43828]

[atomheartbevo 89458]

40 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

Can’t wait till Ukraine eventually takes out the bridge in Kerch 

39 minutes ago, Auto Driller said:

I’m guessing it might be a lot sooner than we think.

Hopefully when it's got some juicy targets on it.

 

[Laxtonto 11934]

7 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

This is extremely fascinating, and I hope we get some really detailed studies when this is all over, because I'm fascinated by the Ukrainian target selection and how good they've been at it.

Big boy toys come with big boy intel and big boy systems for target hierarchy and ordnance deployment systems. This is no slight against the Ukrainians, but if we are going to believe that this level of complex multilayered systematic targeting is being done solely by the Ukrainians without outside assistance, well ……

We are seeing the future (well our top end systems from probably the 2010s with current satellite and comm integration) of how warfare can be conducted at the acquisition and planning level with much more real-time intelligence gathering with a much broader automated targeting filter in a “civilized” part of the world.

 

Technology is a scary thing, especially when people have the training and will to use it to its potential.

 

[Bevo 13528]

It is nice to see what our technology can do when not encumbered by US media and politics.

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12301]

1 minute ago, Bevo said:

It is nice to see what our technology can do when not encumbered by US media and politics.

Wut.

[Bevo 13528]

8 minutes ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

Wut.

If we were fighting, political squabbles and 24hr news would create more chaos than the enemy.

[InkaUtexas 25531]

34 minutes ago, Laxtonto said:

Technology is a scary thing, especially when people have the training, desire and willingness, and will to use it to its potential.

 

Yep, just adding something that get forgotten. You need to want to be trained. You need to want to mess up your enemy. Ukraine is showing they have that. 

[atomheartbevo 89458]

 

[InkaUtexas 25531]

For their armed forces, their equipment, and we are nice, so not their citizens or tourists. 

[atomheartbevo 89458]

 

[Auto Driller 2504]

The “I bet he’s thinking about other women” meme is a great platform.

[atomheartbevo 89458]

4 minutes ago, Auto Driller said:

The “I bet he’s thinking about other women” meme is a great platform.

Way too many of us have laid there at night wondering what the fuck the Russians are doing.

[blacklab 11851]

2 hours ago, MillerEP said:

 

the car at the end:

[atomheartbevo 89458]

 

[atomheartbevo 89458]

 

[atomheartbevo 89458]

Russians shitposting

 

[MillerEP 30339]

 

[atomheartbevo 89458]

 

[ShaggyBevo RIP 3868]

 

Trying to stay out of HARMS way.

[atomheartbevo 89458]

20 minutes ago, ShaggyBevo RIP said:

Trying to stay out of HARMS way.

[MillerEP 30339]

 

Edited August 10, 2022 by MillerEP

[Pato del Muerto 52347]

From tweet on last page: “I hope you like sleeping under sunflowers”

 

I said goddamn

[Sawbonz 27443]

3 hours ago, MillerEP said:

 

They hit the rental car lot?

[Rimbo 25788]

22 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

From tweet on last page: “I hope you like sleeping under sunflowers”

 

I said goddamn

Like the old lady handing the Russian soldiers seeds to put in their pockets.

[The Dog 43828]

[Scheiss Meister 8399]

1 hour ago, atomheartbevo said:

 

"Riders on the storm,

Riders on the storm..."

[956 Worldwide 34462]

Great thread on Putin’s thinking and how it is that Russia can take on adversaries that are unquestionably stronger than Russia (spoiler: not caring about human life either genuinely or instrumentally is Russia’s superpower).  
 

 

[Parliament 14141]

Hrair Balen seems like he sucks.  There's a mlt to unwrap here and I don't know where to start.

 

https://responsiblestatecraft.org/2022/08/08/a-window-has-opened-to-end-the-war-in-ukraine/

 

 

[956 Worldwide 34462]

Quincy is a weird group. They got their seed money from both Open Society (Soros’ foundation) and the Koch Foundation.  Their starting assumption is to preach realism and restraint in foreign policy and a lot of their OG associated scholars and commenters are people who got seriously disillusioned by Iraq. 
 

From that sober start it has tilted into a more contrarian “blame America first” outfit that reflexively takes the position that Russia, China, and Iran need to be accommodated and that support for human rights or democratic values are not just subordinate— they should be absent in foreign policy decision making.  And they are super active on social media and really churn out the blistering hot takes on Ukraine in a bid for attention.  Partly because they aren’t really at the table in debates like Brookings or CFR or CNAS or even Hudson and Heritage are. 
 

They do suck. 

[InkaUtexas 25531]

4 hours ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Great thread on Putin’s thinking and how it is that Russia can take on adversaries that are unquestionably stronger than Russia (spoiler: not caring about human life either genuinely or instrumentally is Russia’s superpower).  
 

 

Yes, excellent thread and good points made all around. It is the Economy that needs to be hammered, but the elites and urbanites need to be the ones that pay. One issue is we need the big European powers to remain strong. German has waffled. And need to tell the smaller ones, IE Bulgaria, that there are other fuel options. Do we start sanctioning countries that purchase Russian oil? That means China, India, the Gulf States, African nations. Such a fucked up situation Crazy Vlad put the world into. 

[InkaUtexas 25531]

 

[Bevo 13528]

2 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

 

Is there a background story to the controversy? It seems like the report was done through back channels, there is a schism in the organization, or there is just a lot of disorganization where one group doesn't know what the other is doing.

[InkaUtexas 25531]

The main office issued a report saying the Ukrainian armed forces should not be in cities. Did not hammer the Russians for creating the situation. Head of AI in the Ukraine immediately resigned. Now this person as well. 

Amnesty does some good work, but there is a bit of speculation on who and how they get some funding. They tend to be a bit quiet on shit Russia does. 

 

[atomheartbevo 89458]

4 minutes ago, Bevo said:

Is there a background story to the controversy? It seems like the report was done through back channels, there is a schism in the organization, or there is just a lot of disorganization where one group doesn't know what the other is doing.

Schism = unrepentant asswipe won’t back down even though she’s hurting the organization internally and ruining it’s reputation internationally.

[atomheartbevo 89458]

From Kyiv Independent

Ukraine's military heavily damage Kakhovsky Bridge in Kherson Oblast. The dam bridge is unusable after Ukraine's Armed Forces strike, the Kherson Regional Administration confirmed.

Ukraine’s Air Force: Around 10 Russian aircraft destroyed in Crimea. Yuriy Ignat, a spokesman for the air force, said that Russia had Su-24, Su-30, Il-76, and other airplanes at the Saky airfield in Novofedorivka, Crimea.

[Chad Fuck 17572]

3 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

From Kyiv Independent

Ukraine's military heavily damage Kakhovsky Bridge in Kherson Oblast. The dam bridge is unusable after Ukraine's Armed Forces strike, the Kherson Regional Administration confirmed.

Ukraine’s Air Force: Around 10 Russian aircraft destroyed in Crimea. Yuriy Ignat, a spokesman for the air force, said that Russia had Su-24, Su-30, Il-76, and other airplanes at the Saky airfield in Novofedorivka, Crimea.

Still awaiting pics of the destroyed Il-76s reported at the beginning of this fiasco.

 

Edited August 10, 2022 by Chad Fuck

[The Dog 43828]

 

The psychological/propaganda impact of the attack on Crimea can't be overstated IMHO. These aren't the poor soldiers from the east - these are Muscovites and wealthier Russians who will go home and tell everyone what happened. It's going to be quite a different story than what they have been hearing on Russia 1. 

[The Dog 43828]

Also, I meant to post this yesterday but Hertling nailed the Crimea attack - it wasn't a missile but rather was a Ukrainian special forces op:

The fact that Ukrainians can conduct ops that far behind enemy lines is pretty big IMHO.

[InkaUtexas 25531]

It is massive. Now do it again at the sub base! 

[InkaUtexas 25531]

If true this hurts way more than realized at first. 

 

[956 Worldwide 34462]

For me, the Amnesty dust-up is a good example of how mission creep can screw up NGOs just like any other organization. 
 

For decades, Amnesty was laser focused on the issue of unjust imprisonment and extrajudicial punishment, prisoners of conscience, and ending the death penalty.  They did a lot of great work in this area and were really the most credible, unbiased voice on the issue.

In the early 2000s, they made a decision to expand to confront “globalization” and economic, social, and cultural human rights on the principle of the indivisibility of human rights.  In practice, it means that Amnesty is pretty much an advocacy and organizing group for every progressive cause under the sun. And international and country level leadership have free reign to pick their pet cause.

Groups like AI always tend to attract the progressive/do-gooder stereotype but that does not have to impact credibility when the organization is disciplined and focused on a real issue and builds up expertise.  But it becomes a problem when you suddenly have no focus and competing causes in the office. 
 

AI should have learned this the hard way. In 2021 they stripped Alexei Navalny of his “prisoner of conscience” status due to admittedly discriminatory and hurtful comments he made in 2007 and 2008.  Those comments were unrelated to his sham imprisonment as the Kremlin’s main opposition on fake corruption charges. And it’s clearly absurd to suggest that someone who once said something racist cannot also be unjustly imprisoned for something else entirely, and it’s troubling to introduce “litmus tests” for who qualifies for advocacy against torture and unjust detention. AI allowed ideological mission creep to prevail over their original mandate. And they had to backtrack that decision publicly. 
 

On the Ukraine report, even if the interview were done correctly and accurately, the final report presented them out of context and without the added scrutiny of military and international law experts to make nuanced and thoughtful determinations. Or even to explain how witnesses might have made mistakes in judgment or evaluation of what they saw and heard.  And it happened because their expert is a very vociferous anti-war, anti-military activist. 

Edited August 10, 2022 by 956 Worldwide

[Fico 1743]

1 hour ago, The Dog said:

 

The psychological/propaganda impact of the attack on Crimea can't be overstated IMHO. These aren't the poor soldiers from the east - these are Muscovites and wealthier Russians who will go home and tell everyone what happened. It's going to be quite a different story than what they have been hearing on Russia 1. 

Russian crying after having to end their Crimean vacation early. 

 

[ShaggyBevo RIP 3868]

Also, I meant to post this yesterday but Hertling nailed the Crimea attack - it wasn't a missile but rather was a Ukrainian special forces op:
The fact that Ukrainians can conduct ops that far behind enemy lines is pretty big IMHO.

There is another story going around that using electromagnetic anomaly analysis missile(s) were fired from the Odessa region.

Since misdirection was used to sink the Moscow both may be true.

[AUS-97HORN 11682]

5 minutes ago, Fico said:

 

@ :50 mark.

you would think that in Russia (or Russian occupied anywhere)... being the last second merging asshole might end up with a hell of a lot more road rage complete with AK47s

 

@2:20 , @3:10 @ 3:55  @ 4:18 @ 5:33  @ 5:55 @ 9:12

[The Dog 43828]

 

[Fico 1743]

HIMARS aftermath. Not that it wasn't already obvious but another example of what real HIMARS strike looks like vs the mass POW execution. 

 

[ShaggyBevo RIP 3868]

There is another story going around that using electromagnetic anomaly analysis missile(s) were fired from the Odessa region.

Since misdirection was used to sink the Moscow both may be true.

Noise it was two UKR Neptunes with new guidance systems that allow land based attacks via GPS.

Neptunes are what sunk the Moskva.

Where air defense?