Русский корабль - иди нахуй

[InkaUtexas 25942]

21 minutes ago, Bevo said:

The Dnieper river supplies Crimea with water. It runs through Ukraine.

Well we saw how their troops lived. Hygiene manual came straight from the Bolshevik army of 1917. Perhaps that is why the big wigs are getting their families out. 

yes, make it unlivable. Blow up the bridge, cut the water, cut the power lines, cut off the food. Sucks for those stuck there, but I would say almost any loyal Ukrainian has had chances to get out. 

I am not saying go full Russian on the population, or even full Serb (Sarajevo comes to mind) but there are things that can be done.

[atomheartbevo 89670]

52 minutes ago, statsman said:

4. A Ukrainian victory is very possible, with the caveat that Crimea may be a different deal. Crimea is much easier to defend. That will be a tough nut. The “mainland” Ukraine is very possible. 

35 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Maybe, but maybe not. Make it unlivable. You don't have to take terrain if they cannot live there or hold it. UA has shown they will hammer the Russians in Ukrainian cities. They will do it there. I would not want to be trapped in the Crimea. 

If Ukraine takes back the areas up to Crimea, three things:

1. Ukraine can cut fresh water to Crimea, which means Russia will have to import water, and additional food since Crimea couldn't grow shit without freshwater.
2. Crimea's Kerch bridge will be a prime target for HIMARS (assuming we give them ATACMS)
3. Russia runs a huge risk trying to supply Crimea by sea, especially if Ukraine pushes into Crimea and brings a lot of areas under HIMARS range, plus Harpoon range.

[InkaUtexas 25942]

2 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

If Ukraine takes back the areas up to Crimea, three things:

1. Ukraine can cut fresh water to Crimea, which means Russia will have to import water, and additional food since Crimea couldn't grow shit without freshwater.
2. Crimea's Kerch bridge will be a prime target for HIMARS (assuming we give them ATACMS)
3. Russia runs a huge risk trying to supply Crimea by sea, especially if Ukraine pushes into Crimea and brings a lot of areas under HIMARS range, plus Harpoon range.

Yep. Then watch their navy try and go somewhere. Where could they go? Does Russia have another solid Black Sea port? Turkey closed the straits to naval ships. 

[The Dog 44051]

1 hour ago, atomheartbevo said:

Speaking of nice, French have given them some really kicking mobile artillery.  But it's also going to help sell a lot of those SPGs to other countries.

 

It's not like the surrender monkeys would use them anyway.

1 hour ago, statsman said:

I listened to a really good WSJ podcast with Gerry Baker and Fred Kagan. Kagan made a couple of interesting points-

1. Tactical nukes are a risk Ukraine is willing to take and even face. It’s their decision. 
 
2. Putin made it clear, with his pre-invasion speeches, that this invasion of Ukraine was a trial run before taking on the Baltics, and even Poland. By helping Ukraine, NATO gets to stop and even defeat Putin before he attacks a NATO member. Helping Ukraine is the best use of defense dollars imaginable, because a Ukrainian win spares us a NATO war. 

 

Both #1 and #2 trigger Article 5 - the first by the fallout entering a NATO member's space and the second being a direct attack on a NATO member. 

Since the start of this thing we've had NATO aircraft flying around Polish and Romanian airspace like angry hornets. It's clear from Finland's actions (to join NATO) that any attack on a NATO member was always a bluff. The second Finland sent their application in the Russians moved their troops away from the Finnish border. 

Putin is a bully and a coward. He cares more about living than winning. That's why we can do whatever we want and need to start doing it.

[Born to Run 6569]

Just the fact that they are bringing food to these people will make a difference.

The nuances of how that goes will be critical. Kindness goes a long way. Despite the bloodlust of a lot of posters here or those actually doing the fighting, Ukraine really needs to take the highest road possible here, if nothing else to squash anger or future squabbles with native Russian speakers. It's going to be difficult to balance justice and vengeance. Active collaboration vs being a pawn and relocating to Crimea a few years ago for an opportunity because you are a poor Russian. How is that parsed out?

Untangling this mess is going to be challenging to say the least. War Crimes, Repatriation, missing children.

[MNLonghornFUKM 8817]

Cliff notes for dummies please…I check this thread every day or 2. what’s the reason behind 400 posts between yesterday and now?

I read today UK was on the counter but that’s been said numerous times. Must be pretty extensive?

[Born to Run 6569]

That last panel. That's a lot expense of blood and treasure to figure out and acknowledge that Ukrainian people exist.

Might I suggest Wiki, Vodka and Chill Comrade?

[YGIFS 19450]

evil russian Aaron Spelling seems mean.  Not Tori mean, but salty nonetheless...

[bolverk 29672]

1 minute ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

Cliff notes for dummies please…I check this thread every day or 2. what’s the reason behind 400 posts between yesterday and now?

I read today UK was on the counter but that’s been said numerous times. Must be pretty extensive?

Yes.

Nutshell: On the northeastern front near Kharkiv, the Russian line collapsed and thousands of square miles have been liberated. On the southern front near Kherson, slow, steady progress is being made with rumours of trapped Russians negotiating surrender. Between the two, there's speculation Ukraine has enough in reserves to start making progress. In Russia, itself, critics of Putin have been emboldened to speak out on State TV.

[MillerEP 30455]

 

[YGIFS 19450]

I kinda feel bad that their people will enter a 10-year dark abyss.  But we can provide a million Russian sympathizers that we can ship over.  A people should know when they've been defeated.  

[MillerEP 30455]

^lol, crazy story

[YGIFS 19450]

Good, 30% of America needs something to jerk off to while we gather up some traitors and war criminals.  

[Born to Run 6569]

evil russian Aaron Spelling seems mean.  Not Tori mean, but salty nonetheless...

The sight of Tori used to make my penis hide like a turtle. Not her fault but, it Was uncomfortable.

[tx 3 putt 76958]

1 hour ago, statsman said:

 
4. A Ukrainian victory is very possible, with the caveat that Crimea may be a different deal. Crimea is much easier to defend. That will be a tough nut. The “mainland” Ukraine is very possible. 
 
 

 

there's no fight left in those russian bellies 

[davidg 4038]

55 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

They have a much longer range, and I bet the Ukrainians are operating HIMARS at a healthy range.  HIMARS can be on the move in under a minute after firing.

A single HIMARS or especially the M270 MLRS (twice the same type of payload as HIMARS) can do some insane damage.  Grabbed this off of the specs (M26 rockets with bomblets, each rocket has over 600 half-pound shaped-charge bomblets) (just cut the numbers below in half for the HIMARS):

A full salvo of a single M270, consisting of twelve 227 mm M26 rockets, hit 7728 anti-personnel submunitions (bomblets) on an area of 24 hectares in less than one minute. And one MLRS battery (9 installations), firing 108 missiles, had firepower equivalent to 33 cannon artillery battalions. 

 

We probably still have shit tons of rockeyes and M26s in inventory and didn't sign the Oslo Treaty on cluster munitions, but I don't think we would give any of them to Ukraine with our blessing to use.    

[bolverk 29672]

26 minutes ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

Cliff notes for dummies please…I check this thread every day or 2. what’s the reason behind 400 posts between yesterday and now?

I read today UK was on the counter but that’s been said numerous times. Must be pretty extensive?

Jesus Christ, man. If you're going to ask a question, stick around for a few minutes before you log off.

• Question asked: 20 minutes ago.
• Log off: 17 minutes ago.
• Answer given: 14 minutes ago.

You've got no one else to blame for your ignorance. Try to keep up...or not. Don't waste anyone else's time.

 

[staboner 4969]

4 hours ago, MillerEP said:

 

alright simulation I am here. My body is ready 

[atomheartbevo 89670]

more on the TV show tonight.

https://news.yahoo.com/kremlin-tv-airs-call-russia-164208089.html

Quote

Appearing on Russia’s NTV show The Meeting Place on Monday, policy analyst Viktor Olevich surmised: “Unfortunately, the situation is difficult. Can we say that the Russian forces moved closer to meeting the goals and carrying out the tasks set by the president at the beginning of the special operation—or did they get further away? Obviously, we’re now further away.”

Quote

Bogdan Bezpalko, member of the Council for Interethnic Relations under the President of the Russian Federation, was even more outspoken. “For two months, Ukrainian Armed Forces and military equipment have been massing in that area, all Telegram channels have been writing about it. Where was our damn reconnaissance? All of their heads should be laying on Putin’s desk, hacked off at the base... Of course, this is a tactical defeat. I hope it will be very sobering.”

Quote

Political scientist Sergey Mikheyev described recent developments in Kharkhiv as “a serious failure,” on the part of Russia. “Call it 'regrouping' or whatever else... This is our most serious defeat during the last six months, and the most significant success of our adversary... Perhaps this failure is beneficial, because being so obvious, now it’s impossible to pull the wool over our eyes, pretending that everything is wonderful,” he said.

Quote

Mikheyev argued that failures would likely prompt “serious people” to make some “radical decisions,” like striking Ukraine’s civilian infrastructure—a move that is often praised on Russian state TV, with propagandistspromoting the idea of causing a total blackout that would deprive all of Ukraine of roads, bridges, electricity and running water.

Quote

State TV pundits concur that such measures are necessary because Russia’s Armed Forces can’t keep up with the goals set by Russian President Vladimir Putin. Shakhnazarov noted: “All of us are aware of the problems experienced by our Armed Forces. In my opinion, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation were obviously unprepared for the magnitude of this war. Ukraine’s Armed Forces were prepared, they’ve been training and getting ready for eight years.”

Quote

Solovyov was unwilling to concede Russia’s defeat to the Ukrainian troops and claimed that American and British soldiers were covertly fighting in their ranks. “In the process of preparing the battle-ready Ukrainian troops, it turns out they’ve been rapidly turning darker in color and becoming fluent English speakers. They’re becoming indistinguishable from the mercenaries... Some of them have a Southern drawl, others speak with a British accent. Stop pretending already,” he said. The idea of being defeated by NATO, as opposed to this smaller neighboring country, seems to sweeten the pot for many of the Kremlin’s cheerleaders.

A southern drawl you say?

Somebody did dispute whether Ukrainians are human Ukrainian

Quote

The filmmaker urged for clarity in the “political solution of the Ukrainian question.” While no one argued with Shakhnazarov about Russia’s defeat, the existence of the Ukrainian ethnicity was too much to bear for some of the Kremlin’s mouthpieces. Political analyst Dmitry Drobnitsky asserted: “The recognition of the existence of the Ukrainian people is the biggest mistake in our Soviet history.” Shakhnazarov followed up: “So there are no Ukrainian people?” Drobnitsky replied: “The Ukrainian people do not exist. Any historian will tell you that they don’t exist... You’re offering me to recognize their existence. Thanks, but no thanks.”

Quote

After objecting to arguments about the supposed non-existence of the Ukrainian ethnicity and the Ukrainian language, the Germany-based pundit Alexander Sosnovsky became visibly unsettled by what he was hearing. In a scene that resembled a Mitchell and Webb sketch, in which two Nazi officers come to the realization that they are the ‘baddies’ in WWII, he bitterly concluded: “I don’t want to go any further, because this smells of nationalism.”

 

[tx 3 putt 76958]

16 minutes ago, davidg said:

We probably still have shit tons of rockeyes and M26s in inventory and didn't sign the Oslo Treaty on cluster munitions, but I don't think we would give any of them to Ukraine with our blessing to use.    

 

but this guy will supply them ..........

[bolverk 29672]

7 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

more on the TV show tonight.

https://news.yahoo.com/kremlin-tv-airs-call-russia-164208089.html

A southern drawl you say?

It's a fine distinction, but that's more of a twang than a drawl, which suggests more of a broader, Appalachian background than a deeper, "Plantation South" cultural one. Our finest resident linguist, @RDCanecutter, can explain the difference if he so wishes.

[Superhero 8830]

 

[Fico 1778]

1 hour ago, InkaUtexas said:

Yep. Then watch their navy try and go somewhere. Where could they go? Does Russia have another solid Black Sea port? Turkey closed the straits to naval ships. 

In WW2, after the German capture of Crimea, they relocated to Novorossiysk. After that fell they moved to Poti in Georgia. 

[atomheartbevo 89670]

 

[atomheartbevo 89670]

 

 

[MNLonghornFUKM 8817]

6 hours ago, bolverk said:

Jesus Christ, man. If you're going to ask a question, stick around for a few minutes before you log off.

• Question asked: 20 minutes ago.
• Log off: 17 minutes ago.
• Answer given: 14 minutes ago.

You've got no one else to blame for your ignorance. Try to keep up...or not. Don't waste anyone else's time.

 

First off, thanks for the first informative reply. 
 

secondly: it was 11:30 and I went to bed so I wasn’t exactly expecting an answer at 11:33. Kinda strange to crucify someone especially when he starts out with “cliff notes for dummies”. 

[Brisketexan 105142]

So, catching up….watching the video of the soldier liberating his mother’s village…F me. I will never NOT feel my heart swell swing a people liberated from oppressors/invaders. It’s in my goddamnAmerican DNA, I can’t help it.
But to see a people who truly want to control their own destiny, and are actively fighting and dying for it, that’s the best of humanity, meeting the worst of humanity.
And speaking of the worst, as every liberation reveals more and more war crimes, and as real-time investigations and technology reveal the perpetrators, I’m hopeful that we are about to see the largest series of war crimes prosecutions ever at The Hague. It makes me wonder how I can volunteer/help (probably not much; I looked at the issue a few years ago, and they’re looking for both foreign language skills (until we have a big Latin American war, I’m useless there) and prosecutorial experience (nope, not my field either)). But the boy is very interested in the field…perhaps some volunteer work/internships in the coming years. Of course, he’s already talked some about maybe being involved in some NGO rebuilding projects. Methinks there will be many opportunities there.
I want peace for Eastern Europe. We can only have that when Putin is completely defeated, and Russian conventional military capacity is functionally destroyed.
I want victory for Ukraine.
I want justice for the war crimes.

We are at an inflection point in history. A certain flavor of ethnonationalist authoritarianism is in vogue, and is reaching its crescendo in Russia and Hungary. A crushing defeat will not finish it off, not even close. But it may be the turning point - we may have seen it’s zenith. As we move into the next era, we will need to be deliberate about what a global worldview should mean (its pros, and its cons). But for now, humanity will need to complete this current era. It will be one of blood, and death, as it is proving to be in Ukraine.
Also….someday, I would like to visit Ukraine, walk into a pub, and buy a round, or 10, for the house. Tough bastards they are, it’d be a privilege.

[YGIFS 19450]

Go enjoy your vacation.  But you are right on all accounts.  We are not done with this bullshit, but this is a powerful and marked abatement of the dismal tide of ethnonationalism/authoritianism.  The ironic part is that their side (Russia, Hungary, et. al.) knows they are a party to it.  The West has its own issues with this movement but it's doubly harder for us because our stupids don't know they're on the very side they purport to oppose.  Ukraine has shown the world a blueprint for defeating madness, but a whole lotta people gotta die worldwide before we can enter the next chapter of human history. 

Have you Hugged a Ukrainian today?    

[jdhorn92 1549]

1 hour ago, Brisketexan said:

So, catching up….watching the video of the soldier liberating his mother’s village…F me. I will never NOT feel my heart swell swing a people liberated from oppressors/invaders. It’s in my goddamnAmerican DNA, I can’t help it.
But to see a people who truly want to control their own destiny, and are actively fighting and dying for it, that’s the best of humanity, meeting the worst of humanity.
And speaking of the worst, as every liberation reveals more and more war crimes, and as real-time investigations and technology reveal the perpetrators, I’m hopeful that we are about to see the largest series of war crimes prosecutions ever at The Hague. It makes me wonder how I can volunteer/help (probably not much; I looked at the issue a few years ago, and they’re looking for both foreign language skills (until we have a big Latin American war, I’m useless there) and prosecutorial experience (nope, not my field either)). But the boy is very interested in the field…perhaps some volunteer work/internships in the coming years. Of course, he’s already talked some about maybe being involved in some NGO rebuilding projects. Methinks there will be many opportunities there.
I want peace for Eastern Europe. We can only have that when Putin is completely defeated, and Russian conventional military capacity is functionally destroyed.
I want victory for Ukraine.
I want justice for the war crimes.

We are at an inflection point in history. A certain flavor of ethnonationalist authoritarianism is in vogue, and is reaching its crescendo in Russia and Hungary. A crushing defeat will not finish it off, not even close. But it may be the turning point - we may have seen it’s zenith. As we move into the next era, we will need to be deliberate about what a global worldview should mean (its pros, and its cons). But for now, humanity will need to complete this current era. It will be one of blood, and death, as it is proving to be in Ukraine.
Also….someday, I would like to visit Ukraine, walk into a pub, and buy a round, or 10, for the house. Tough bastards they are, it’d be a privilege.

Great post, I agree totally. I’m a 92 grad of Texas you can do the math on my age. I’ve done OK with my sheepskin I would like to retire in the next 8 to 10 years. I could see myself going over to the Ukraine and swinging a hammer for say, 30 days a year to help with the rebuild. Just to do my little part

[Bevo 13577]

53 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

So, catching up….watching the video of the soldier liberating his mother’s village…F me. I will never NOT feel my heart swell swing a people liberated from oppressors/invaders. It’s in my goddamnAmerican DNA, I can’t help it.
But to see a people who truly want to control their own destiny, and are actively fighting and dying for it, that’s the best of humanity, meeting the worst of humanity.
And speaking of the worst, as every liberation reveals more and more war crimes, and as real-time investigations and technology reveal the perpetrators, I’m hopeful that we are about to see the largest series of war crimes prosecutions ever at The Hague.
 

Extraditions will happen if Russia is in turmoil or if it chooses weak leader. If Putin remains or if a strongman comes to power, there won't be any extraditions.

 

And more spitballing...

As for wanting to be involved in war crime tribunals, I can't think of many routes. A friend of the family who was a maritime attorney in Houston raised funds for Bill Clinton's presidential campaign. For his efforts, when Clinton became president he appointed the guy Ambassador of the Bahamas. So, if you get involved in fund raising now for Biden, you might be able to get an appointment with the International Criminal Court. Otherwise, I don't think it is easily achieved. Going through the State Department probably wouldn't get you anywhere as the U.S. does not recognize the jurisdiction of the ICC. I could see this changing specifically to oppose Russia, but it would be a big mistake and open the door for prosecution of sitting US diplomats.

[Parliament 14260]

8 hours ago, MillerEP said:

^lol, crazy story

So they just wandered into town and the people they conquered told them, "Lol you should surrender."  I spent my entire childhood scared shitless of Russia, and here we are.

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12301]

2 hours ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

First off, thanks for the first informative reply. 
 

secondly: it was 11:30 and I went to bed so I wasn’t exactly expecting an answer at 11:33. Kinda strange to crucify someone especially when he starts out with “cliff notes for dummies”. 

Your boy Tucker Carlson is a Russian asset. 

[YGIFS 19450]

2 minutes ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

Your boy Tucker Carlson is a Russian asset. 

no CR, but it's literally sad at this point to see the primetime lineup towing the Putin line...specifically Tucker.  I mean, there are millions of Russian sympathizers in the United States right now because stupid is en vogue.  But at some point, with that kinda media reach and influence both here and (more importantly) in Europe...some people should be considered collaborators and meet a certain kinda fate.  30 years ago if he was himself now, he'd get two in the back of his head and none of you would lose a fucking wink of sleep.  

[atomheartbevo 89670]

Nolan Peterson is always worth a read, and he’s reporting on the ground from over there.

 

[Ghost of LL 15531]

One thing that I will never understand is what prompted the Russian change in strategy.

Russia had a great strategy, and it was working.  Destabilize the Western democracies with a combination of direct payments to elites/influence peddling and propaganda to the ignorant masses through Facebook et al.  That got them some critical wins.  It got them Orban in Hungary and Trump in the United States.  It got them Brexit and has severely weakened both the United Kingdom and the EU.  

At the same time, threaten the Baltics and Poland with invasion and convince them that NATO won't do shit to help them.  And demonstrate the point with repeated cyberattacks that show that NATO won't do shit.  So the end result is the entire Western defense strategy is called into question.

And for the former Soviet states, set up bullshit little breakaway "republics" supported by "little green men."

All of which was covert and they had plausible deniability.  And so while everything looked chaotic--chaos of their own making--the could sit back and look stable and powerful and ascendant.  

There was nothing wrong with that strategy.  It was working.  Shit--Zelensky had a 20% approval rating.  His government was teetering.  It was entirely possible that he would be replaced by someone much more favorable to Russia in due course.

I'll just never understand why they abandoned that covert strategy in favor of an open invasion.  It just doesn't make any sense.

[vtaenz 601]

2 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

One thing that I will never understand is what prompted the Russian change in strategy.

Russia had a great strategy, and it was working.  Destabilize the Western democracies with a combination of direct payments to elites/influence peddling and propaganda to the ignorant masses through Facebook et al.  That got them some critical wins.  It got them Orban in Hungary and Trump in the United States.  It got them Brexit and has severely weakened both the United Kingdom and the EU.  

At the same time, threaten the Baltics and Poland with invasion and convince them that NATO won't do shit to help them.  And demonstrate the point with repeated cyberattacks that show that NATO won't do shit.  So the end result is the entire Western defense strategy is called into question.

And for the former Soviet states, set up bullshit little breakaway "republics" supported by "little green men."

All of which was covert and they had plausible deniability.  And so while everything looked chaotic--chaos of their own making--the could sit back and look stable and powerful and ascendant.  

There was nothing wrong with that strategy.  It was working.  Shit--Zelensky had a 20% approval rating.  His government was teetering.  It was entirely possible that he would be replaced by someone much more favorable to Russia in due course.

I'll just never understand why they abandoned that covert strategy in favor of an open invasion.  It just doesn't make any sense.

Maybe when Putin received whatever terminal diagnosis he got and decided he wanted to see the USSR reformed before he fucked off.

[YGIFS 19450]

It was working, it was good for morale, it was (relatively) cheap, and moreover...avoided that awkward parade of mourning Russian mothers gathering around the Kremlin with 8x12"s (or metric) of their sons.  

Honestly, and I'm stealing this from the Clements Center at UT-Austin and all the Russian experts there (and they are a centre-right think tank at LBJ)...what changed for Russia was the people they backed turned out to be stupid.  They heavily influenced Western elections.  What they didn't see coming was their installed puppets would turn out to be grossly incompetent.  Western Democracy will only be saved because the puppets and puppet masters turned out to have backed the Dollar General crowd instead of General Dollars.  

[Bateshorn 9927]

9 hours ago, davidg said:

We probably still have shit tons of rockeyes and M26s in inventory and didn't sign the Oslo Treaty on cluster munitions, but I don't think we would give any of them to Ukraine with our blessing to use.    

I’m pretty sure the military phased out cluster munitions during the Aughts.  With improved guidance and some new air burst shrapnel warheads, they become obsolete.

[atomheartbevo 89670]

Not going to post individual tweets but holy shit the guys like these have been posting an unending stream of captured and destroyed Russian stuff

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons

Hangar queen in the light of day, being stripped

 

Edited September 14, 2022 by atomheartbevo

[SydneyCarton 48106]

19 minutes ago, YGIFS said:

It was working, it was good for morale, it was (relatively) cheap, and moreover...avoided that awkward parade of mourning Russian mothers gathering around the Kremlin with 8x12"s (or metric) of their sons.  

Honestly, and I'm stealing this from the Clements Center at UT-Austin and all the Russian experts there (and they are a centre-right think tank at LBJ)...what changed for Russia was the people they backed turned out to be stupid.  They heavily influenced Western elections.  What they didn't see coming was their installed puppets would turn out to be grossly incompetent.  Western Democracy will only be saved because the puppets and puppet masters turned out to have backed the Dollar General crowd instead of General Dollars.  

Picking nits, but there aren't mourning mothers gathered anywhere around the Kremlin, because 90% of the dead soldiers in russia at this point are from the far reaches of their country, far from their cities, and by people the aristocrats in Moscow and St. Petersburg view as sub-human anyway. 

[atomheartbevo 89670]

23 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

I'll just never understand why they abandoned that covert strategy in favor of an open invasion.  It just doesn't make any sense.

Like was said, something may have happened to Putin. He clearly became obsessed with some kind of Russian Empire or revival of the Soviet Union a while back, and in mid-2021 he was openly justifying an invasion of Ukraine.  

Ukraine was never going to join NATO as long as it had Russian troops on its territory, so the NATO stuff was just a distraction as well.

But there is another aspect - Western oil companies were working more and more to get Ukrainian assets online, and they’d potentially be undercutting Russian sales to Western Europe.  Conquering Ukraine, or at least the eastern and southern parts, would have put that oil and gas under Russian control.

[atomheartbevo 89670]

2 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

Picking nits, but there aren't mourning mothers gathered anywhere around the Kremlin, because 90% of the dead soldiers in russia at this point are from the far reaches of their country, far from their cities, and by people the aristocrats in Moscow and St. Petersburg view as sub-human anyway. 

That was something else that really shocked me about the clips that Julia Davis posted - the Russian state TV talking heads acknowledging that it was mostly rural areas paying the price with dead soldiers.  The fact that they even brought up dead Russians was surprising.

[The Dog 44051]

 

 

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12301]

That David D twitter dude seems to really want to spill the beans on something.

[Bateshorn 9927]

11 minutes ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

That David D twitter dude seems to really want to spill the beans on something.

Feels like Porta-potty girl.

[InkaUtexas 25942]

9 hours ago, Fico said:

In WW2, after the German capture of Crimea, they relocated to Novorossiysk. After that fell they moved to Poti in Georgia. 

Thanks! I thought they had another, but was too lazy to look it up! 

Now, to see what can hit it from where.....

[Js1 85338]

12 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

Feels like Porta-potty girl.

Like anyone could have that level of credibility, except maybe CrapsMILF

[SmokeyTheBear 5562]

1 hour ago, Ghost of LL said:

One thing that I will never understand is what prompted the Russian change in strategy.

Russia had a great strategy, and it was working.  Destabilize the Western democracies with a combination of direct payments to elites/influence peddling and propaganda to the ignorant masses through Facebook et al.  That got them some critical wins.  It got them Orban in Hungary and Trump in the United States.  It got them Brexit and has severely weakened both the United Kingdom and the EU.  

At the same time, threaten the Baltics and Poland with invasion and convince them that NATO won't do shit to help them.  And demonstrate the point with repeated cyberattacks that show that NATO won't do shit.  So the end result is the entire Western defense strategy is called into question.

And for the former Soviet states, set up bullshit little breakaway "republics" supported by "little green men."

All of which was covert and they had plausible deniability.  And so while everything looked chaotic--chaos of their own making--the could sit back and look stable and powerful and ascendant.  

There was nothing wrong with that strategy.  It was working.  Shit--Zelensky had a 20% approval rating.  His government was teetering.  It was entirely possible that he would be replaced by someone much more favorable to Russia in due course.

I'll just never understand why they abandoned that covert strategy in favor of an open invasion.  It just doesn't make any sense.

It was close to being successful (more than currently anyways) if Trump would have won a second term (fuck the no CR). NATO would not have had the cohesive response it had and we certainly wouldn't be supporting the war effort to the extent we have. Our intelligence and weaponry is the difference here and it exposed any flaws Russia's military has. They would have been exposed eventually, but much easier to take over Ukraine if they are largely alone in the world, then each domino falls behind them if each country (Estonia, Poland, etc) are left to defend themselves alone from the orc horde. 

[atomheartbevo 89670]

33 minutes ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

That David D twitter dude seems to really want to spill the beans on something.

Like us sending 1,500 TOW missiles to Ukraine last month?

[atomheartbevo 89670]