Русский корабль - иди нахуй

[AUS-97HORN 11,758]

5 minutes ago, George said:

They’ve been talking about referendums since March. What are the odds they can actually pull one off?

If I am Ukraine, I have several spies in each of the cities to tell me the exact fking building that the "referendum" voting is held in and dial each of those buildings in for a HIMARS strike.

 

and blast each fucking voting building to shit, within a 10 minute period.  yeah, you may end up killing a few innocent Ukrainians forced to go there... but you will for sure kill most of the assholes pushing russian leadership and take out most of their "voting" boxes.

we know russia will just stuff the box at that point, but killing as many collaborators as possible at the same time would be a huge bonus- those fucks dont deserve to live anymore anyway

[Kwix 2,186]

15 minutes ago, AUS-97HORN said:

we know russia will just stuff the box at that point

at that point??

[The Dog 44,042]

 

[The Dog 44,042]

from the rumor mill:

 

SIAP:

 

[atomheartbevo 89,659]

Too little, too late, and they are going to create a lot of draft-dodgers, and a whole shitload of Russian soldiers who thought they were on a fixed conscription or contract are going to lose their shit and be even more inclined to surrender or flee.

[atomheartbevo 89,659]

 

[atomheartbevo 89,659]

 

[atomheartbevo 89,659]

[SquishMitten 10,405]

17 hours ago, MillerEP said:

^Dude should buy a lottery ticket

Holy shit! BUT, he thought it was a sniper…and decided it was perfectly fine to stay in the exact same spot?!? AND everyone else knew it was a rocket launched at their truck, and derided it was perfectly fine to stay in the same spot next to said truck?!?

[atomheartbevo 89,659]

 

[Bateshorn 9,927]

So, there’s a lot of moving parts here, but a mass conscription doesn’t get you much if it ends up with masses of poorly trained, unwilling draftees who you can’t get to the front.  The problem Russia has isn’t manpower, it’s deploying effectively, with combined arms support.  This isn’t “Enemy at the Gates” where throwing waves of humans at the problem (an over extended evil foe far from supply centers) will work.

 

OTOH, if this is a context for using a tactical nuke, it sorta makes sense, but I feel like part of the meeting of with the Chinese last week was to feel this out and Putin didn’t hear what he wanted.
 

Which leads us to Hanlon’s razor: assume incompetence before conspiracy.  

Edited September 20, 2022 by Bateshorn

[Trey3216 15,346]

32 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

 

[MagicSoccerSpray 1,732]

1 hour ago, AUS-97HORN said:

If I am Ukraine, I have several spies in each of the cities to tell me the exact fking building that the "referendum" voting is held in and dial each of those buildings in for a HIMARS strike.

 

and blast each fucking voting building to shit, within a 10 minute period.  yeah, you may end up killing a few innocent Ukrainians forced to go there... but you will for sure kill most of the assholes pushing russian leadership and take out most of their "voting" boxes.

we know russia will just stuff the box at that point, but killing as many collaborators as possible at the same time would be a huge bonus- those fucks dont deserve to live anymore anyway

 

They are going to allow proxy, absentee, and online "voting". Obviously it will pass.

 

[Bateshorn 9,927]

Just now, MagicSoccerSpray said:

 

They are going to allow proxy, absentee, and online "voting". Obviously it will pass.

 

Yeah, there’s not going to be an actual vote.  

[The Dog 44,042]

 

[Catpfish 618]

51 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

 

Check it out when suppressed

 

 

Edited September 20, 2022 by Catpfish

[Laxtonto 12,080]

14 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

So, there’s a lot of moving parts here, but a mass conscription doesn’t get you much if it ends up with masses of poorly trained, unwilling draftees who you can’t get to the front.  The problem Russia has isn’t manpower, it’s deploying effectively, with combined arms support.  This isn’t “Enemy at the Gates” where throwing waves of humans at the problem (an over extended evil foe far from supply centers) will work.

 

OTOH, if this is a context for using a tactical nuke, it sorta makes sense, but I feel like part of the meeting of with the Chinese last week was to feel this out and Putin didn’t hear what he wanted.
 

Which leads us to Hanlon’s razor: assume incompetence before conspiracy.  

Let's not forget that earlier this year the RU stripped their training battalions of both equipment and troops and so who is going to train these conscripts or at least provide even a simple combat refresher? If they begin to send conscripts straight to the front to get slaughtered with no training (and most likely no gear or equipment) and that is a gurantee to stir up political unrest back home in the big cities.

[Bateshorn 9,927]

10 minutes ago, Laxtonto said:

Let's not forget that earlier this year the RU stripped their training battalions of both equipment and troops and so who is going to train these conscripts or at least provide even a simple combat refresher? If they begin to send conscripts straight to the front to get slaughtered with no training (and most likely no gear or equipment) and that is a gurantee to stir up political unrest back home in the big cities.

Well, arming people who don’t want to be there tends to work out badly for the officer corps. As we discovered in Vietnam.

[The Dog 44,042]

 

[AUS-97HORN 11,758]

Just now, The Dog said:

 

no idea who Dr Mike is... but those 3 tweets read like a surly-ite who had 2 European History courses posting on here like they know shit

 

 

*looking at myself*.... who me??  fuck that I had 8 European history courses bitch I am a MFing expert.

[The Dog 44,042]

Here's a less funny take:

 

[The Dog 44,042]

 

[Laxtonto 12,080]

My question on this topic has always been that so far the US has handcuffed the Ukrainians about the use of western weapons to attack Russia itself, but now this is theoretically an impossibility because those weapons would already be inside "Russia" now. Does that mean the main rail arteries that are just over the Russian border and so far have been unmolested by HIMARS are now a viable target?  Is Belgorod now fair game? Can the UKA now attack all of the smaller airports just over the border that can be used as reconnaissance and UAV platforms?

If Russia escalates the conflict with annexation, does that mean the gloves come off and now it is a "real" war and the UKA can go full bore into Russia itself?

 

Just thought about the move of antiair defenses from the Finnish/NATO border to Ukraine/Russia border, and it now makes a ton more sense. If they are concerned that the UKA will be intensifying their missile and air operations once the "annexation" and moblization begin, it is better to have those in place now before it comes down than having to move them after the UKA has already caused havoc.

 

 

Edited September 20, 2022 by Laxtonto

[Trey3216 15,346]

49 minutes ago, AUS-97HORN said:

no idea who Dr Mike is... but those 3 tweets read like a surly-ite who had 2 European History courses posting on here like they know shit

 

 

*looking at myself*.... who me??  fuck that I had 8 European history courses bitch I am a MFing expert.

Zat's why they send me.  I am expert  

[Ghost of LL 15,531]

2 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Too little, too late, and they are going to create a lot of draft-dodgers, and a whole shitload of Russian soldiers who thought they were on a fixed conscription or contract are going to lose their shit and be even more inclined to surrender or flee.

I think it's even worse than that.  Revolutions are often led by the disaffected conscripted army that is losing and sees their job as little more than being slaughtered. Without effective command and leadership, a conscript army is just a breeding ground for mutiny.  And I don't think we've seen anything from the Russian army thus far that it would indicate that it's even capable of effective command and leadership.

One of the worst instances of civil unrest in American history was the 1863 draft riots in New York.  You could easily see that happening in Moscow.

 

1 hour ago, Bateshorn said:

So, there’s a lot of moving parts here, but a mass conscription doesn’t get you much if it ends up with masses of poorly trained, unwilling draftees who you can’t get to the front.  The problem Russia has isn’t manpower, it’s deploying effectively, with combined arms support.  This isn’t “Enemy at the Gates” where throwing waves of humans at the problem (an over extended evil foe far from supply centers) will work.

 

OTOH, if this is a context for using a tactical nuke, it sorta makes sense, but I feel like part of the meeting of with the Chinese last week was to feel this out and Putin didn’t hear what he wanted.
 

Which leads us to Hanlon’s razor: assume incompetence before conspiracy.  

That's exactly right.  Russia keeps fighting this thing like it's the Great Patriotic War (except this time, it's Ukraine that is getting the benefit of Lend-Lease).  But it's fucking not, and sending a bunch of untrained and only partially armed troops onto a modern battlefield isn't going to do anything to stop the Ukrainian advance.

 

7 minutes ago, Laxtonto said:

My question has on this topic has always been that so far the US has handcuffed the Ukrainians about the use of western weapons to attack Russia itself, but now this is theoretically an impossibility because those weapons would already be inside "Russia" now. Does that mean the main rail arteries that are just over the Russian border and so far have been unmolested by HIMARS are now a viable target?  Is Belgorod now fair game? Can the UKA now attack all of the smaller airports just over the border that can be used as reconnaissance and UAV platforms?

If Russia escelates the conflict with annexation, does that mean the gloves come off and now it is a "real" war and the UKA can go full bore into Russia itself?

I think that might be right.

But this gets to a critical point that Putin hasn't yet realized.  If this gets into an escalatory cycle, Russia is fucked.  Russia really has no leverage over us.  The annex the Donbas--we'll sell Ukraine ATACMS and let them attack inside Russia.  They want to target more infrastructure--we'll designate them a state sponsor of terrorism and implement secondary sanctions.  They want to pop off a tactical nuke--we'll send Ukraine all the good stuff (F-16s, M1A2s, Bradleys, Global Hawks, and all the fucking cyberwarfare and intelligence they want).  And guess what? We still haven't put a single American into combat.

And that's the problem for Russia.  Using no American troops and little more than a rounding error on our defense budget, we have managed to destroy at least five Russian divisions.  

Imagine what happens if we get serious.

[The Dog 44,042]

 

[The Dog 44,042]

that would certainly solve the visa issues for those on the fence:

 

[Laxtonto 12,080]

2 minutes ago, The Dog said:

that would certainly solve the visa issues for those on the fence:

 

That is something... Not only does that a prelude of mobilization but all the Oligarchs that haven't fled abroad are now going to be criminals if they decide to sneak out from here on out..

Keep your young men trapped at home for the war effort and the 65 age cap keeps the $$ from fleeing easily with a "legitimate" reason to jail and confiscate their holdings if they decide to leave and help support a coup back home from afar. 

 

 

[AUS-97HORN 11,758]

6 minutes ago, The Dog said:

 

any remotely smart Russian family with a 17 year old and any means at all should be heading for Kazakhstan right now.   one of the last countries that will still accept russian visitors, but will also leave you alone.

 

[MillerEP 30,455]

 

[MillerEP 30,455]

 

[MillerEP 30,455]

 

[Brisketexan 105,123]

1 minute ago, MillerEP said:

 

 

Tucker Carlson and his merry band of sycophants should be signing some paperwork toot sweet, right?

[Scheiss Meister 8,407]

50 minutes ago, MillerEP said:

 

Russia already "annexed" Crimea and claims it as Russian territory, and the Ukrainians haven't hesitated to attack assets there.  Ukraine, backed by the US and UK, have said the the liberation of Crimea and all currently occupied Ukrainian territory is the end goal of their operation.  Russia "annexing" the other occupied territories of Ukraine won't matter one damn bit.  Ukraine will keep attacking.

Edited September 20, 2022 by Scheiss Meister

[MillerEP 30,455]

 

[elfenix 34,238]

 

[Bevo 13,576]

1 hour ago, AUS-97HORN said:

any remotely smart Russian family with a 17 year old and any means at all should be heading for Kazakhstan right now.   one of the last countries that will still accept russian visitors, but will also leave you alone.

 

I hear Kazakhstan is lovely this time of year.

[MillerEP 30,455]

 

[AUS-97HORN 11,758]

would be a perfect time for the hackers to break into Russian TV just as Putin starts fucking talking to tell Russians that its all a sham and that Ukraine is about to kill every fucking russian in Ukraine and kiss their sons, grandsons, husbands, and grandfathers goodbye because they arent coming back alive.

[MillerEP 30,455]

 

[MillerEP 30,455]

 

[MillerEP 30,455]

 

[Viper 12,109]

9 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

 

 

By "rightful owners" Erdogan probably meant Turkey. 

 

53 minutes ago, MillerEP said:

 

No way they think they're going to win this war by playing lawyerball

[MillerEP 30,455]

 

[The Dog 44,042]

 

[956 Worldwide 34,710]

The referenda are a clear indication of two things. First, it is a tacit admission that the “special military operation” has failed in its primary aims. Taking Kyiv, toppling Zelenskyy, installing a puppet regime are off the table. Putin is shifting to consolidating his gains, such as they are.

Second, this is a clear escalation to try and stem the tide of losing.  This stunt opens several doors.  First, Putin likely believes that “annexation” will make nuclear blackmail more credible and will cause the West to pause and think about more advanced capabilities. Second, as outlined, it opens the door for further mobilization at home and commitment of more resources to the Ukraine fight. 
 

Make no mistake, this is a dangerous development.  The snap nature of the “referenda” means that realistically, we are limited in what we can provide to Ukraine to help them change the facts on the ground in advance.  If I could make policy prescriptions, it would be “don’t blink” and also to speed up or even shift course: make announcements that Ukraine gets ATACMS and other capabilities and that they may be used anywhere within the internationally recognized borders of Ukraine or for purposes to defend said territory. 

[MillerEP 30,455]

 

[Fico 1,778]

 

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12,301]

This shit is getting scarier every day.

[MillerEP 30,455]

^stretchers  Probably left their own troops to focus on the important stuff