Русский корабль - иди нахуй

[atomheartbevo 89659]

Anybody curious about the numbers, and I have a thing for Jayne Secker anyways, discussion about how the Russian army is only 280,000 (minus however many have been killed) and how Russia never had the numbers needed to invade Ukraine, even with using internal security forces.

While they don’t get into it, when you take an active army of say 260,000 (assuming around 20,000 have been killed), and that army has lost literally thousands of trucks and armored vehicles, and try to expand it by tossing in 300,000 who are mobilized (and these aren’t exactly like our Army Reserve and National Guard components), and you are reliant upon a rail system that is being challenged/restrained by Ukrainian territorial gains, you’re going to have a lot of problems getting any of those soldiers to the front.  And that’s not discussing the fact that you can’t train up that 300,000, even if they are former military.  

Bad Idea Jeans

[bolverk 29671]

 

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

Order these from least likely to most likely.  The below order is mine.

1) Intractable slog lasts for years until Western will gives out and Putin is on last legs or new leader is in place with less interest, borders resettle fairly pre-2022, with Crimea Russian and some small pockets of eastern Ukraine Russian.  Korea-like resolution.

2) Putin crosses some accepted line in the sand and things go wildly out of control.

3) Coup followed by Russian pull back.

4) Russian lines continue to collapse and Ukraine achieves its goals of retaking everything to 2014 borders.

5) Momentum swing happens and Russia gets back on the offensive to do their pre-war aims.

[Orange&White 5526]

44 minutes ago, statsman said:

Providing weapons to Ukraine is the best use of US defense dollars right now. A Ukraine win keeps Russia from going after the Baltic states next (who are NATO members). 
 
The US defense budget really ought to be 20% bigger. 

I don't have any issue with the US sending weapons. I fully support it and think they should send more. My issue is about Ukrainian officials bitching about the speed of delivery and type of weapons they are getting. Don't look a gift horse in the mouth and don't bite the hand that feeds you.

[Kwix 2186]

3 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

Order these from least likely to most likely.  The below order is mine.

1) Intractable slog lasts for years until Western will gives out and Putin is on last legs or new leader is in place with less interest, borders resettle fairly pre-2022, with Crimea Russian and some small pockets of eastern Ukraine Russian.  Korea-like resolution.

2) Putin crosses some accepted line in the sand and things go wildly out of control.

3) Coup followed by Russian pull back.

4) Russian lines continue to collapse and Ukraine achieves its goals of retaking everything to 2014 borders.

5) Momentum swing happens and Russia gets back on the offensive to do their pre-war aims.

4

3

2

1

5

[bolverk 29671]

Smattering of protests going on in opposition to mobilization. I came across all these from liveuamap -- the below are from regions (I think) that have seen more than their fair share of dead soldiers.

In Tomsk, there is also an action against "partial" mobilization. Three people are known to have been arrested.
 

In Irkutsk, arrests began on the square near the Trud Sports Palace, where at some point about 60 people gathered
 

Ulan-Ude

 

[The Dog 44043]

 

 

[atomheartbevo 89659]

5 hours ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Shoigu has clarified that they plan to mobilize up to 300,000 more troops and offered reassurances that the mobilization will directly impact only a small percentage of even reservists.

I’m going to be very interested to see what specialties they are grabbing and mobilizing.  That will be key to understanding if my hunch is correct that Putin will be loathe to send too many of these conscript reserves to front-line fighting units.  This will be deeply unpopular in Russia and body bags will only exacerbate that.  I still think they will be looking for logistics, maintenance, and support specialties to free up more kontraktniki to go carry a rifle. 

I don’t know that they will have a rhyme or reason to who they grab.

• Logistics?  They don’t have the trucks they need and they are potentially losing some railheads very soon.
• Maintenance and support?  They’ve lost so much equipment that they probably have more bodies than equipment to support
• Tanks?  They’ve lost too many, and if they could get more into the fight, they would have 
• Artillery?  See tanks, plus without logistics and because of sanctions, they are having a problem keeping tubes supplied with shells

i guess they could do what you are talking about and take everybody who is currently in a support, logistics, or maintenance role and give them a rifle and send them off to the front and bring in the reserves to backfill those roles. The problem is that some/many of those reserves haven’t been in the active military in years, and they won’t have a clue as to any institutional knowledge that’s been built up over the last 8-12 months of getting ready for the invasion and subsequent combat in Ukraine.

Hell, early in the war, the current active duty Russian Army couldn’t keep a big-ass convoy moving along north of Kyiv with a short run to Belarus, so bringing in somebody who hasn’t been active-duty in years seems like it will make shitty Russian logistics even shittier.

Oh, and those reservists do not want to be there (Putin spent months trying to lure them into active duty with bonuses and benefits), and they will be hammered by drones dropping explosives, as well as artillery, and the current REMFs that would in theory be moved to the front lines do not want to be there (they were already being offered bonuses to switch).

All I can think of is throwing warm bodies with rifles into cities in the LPR/DPR/Crimea with officers ready to shoot them if they don’t follow orders and attack.

[Rimbo 25924]

4 minutes ago, The Dog said:

 

 

We now see the REAL reason Russia has been opposed to trans people...

[atomheartbevo 89659]

11 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

Momentum swing happens and Russia gets back on the offensive to do their pre-war aims.

Least likely.  That ship sailed back in April.  They have no way of doing this, as they lack the infrastructure and vehicles (both logistics and fighting vehicles).  And Ukraine is about to put some irreplaceable Russian rail infrastructure under HIMARS range.

13 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

Putin crosses some accepted line in the sand and things go wildly out of control.

I think if he was truly going to, he would have done so either after Kyiv or Kharkiv.  But he needs us to think he’s a wild card.

15 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

Intractable slog lasts for years until Western will gives out and Putin is on last legs or new leader is in place with less interest, borders resettle fairly pre-2022, with Crimea Russian and some small pockets of eastern Ukraine Russian.  Korea-like resolution.

This can’t last for years.  Russia doesn’t have it in them, and Putin sent his mouthpieces out on state TV for nearly 7 months proclaiming things are going well,   This morning’s mobilization speech was a huge WHAT THE FUCK moment for many Russians.  Calling up 300,000 for a special military operation that was supposedly going well is his last chance.  Putin has put himself on a timer of sorts ( you can pick the time, but if those. 300,000 don’t get results, that’s it for him).

17 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

Coup followed by Russian pull back.

I almost put this in the most likely spot, because he’s now hot people in the streets.  His nearly 7 months of propaganda worked too well, and a lot of people are shocked that things fell apart so badly so quickly.

19 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

Russian lines continue to collapse and Ukraine achieves its goals of retaking everything to 2014 borders.

Most likely.  The momentum has swung too much, and Kyiv has time and Russia doesn’t.  
 

[KYHorn 17046]

Really good thread summarizing Russian logistics' reliance on rail, and the role ATACMS could play in ending this all rather quickly. 

 

 

 

Spoiler

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[atomheartbevo 89659]

Our favorite 40-something construction industry worker in Russia has 59 seconds of some choice words, almost like he’s being called up.  He’s eligible I believe (I think he served back in the 90s) but I’m guessing they are sticking with 20-something’s and 30-something’s for now.

 

Edited September 21, 2022 by atomheartbevo

[SydneyCarton 48092]

43 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Anybody curious about the numbers, and I have a thing for Jayne Secker anyways, discussion about how the Russian army is only 280,000 (minus however many have been killed) and how Russia never had the numbers needed to invade Ukraine, even with using internal security forces.

While they don’t get into it, when you take an active army of say 260,000 (assuming around 20,000 have been killed), and that army has lost literally thousands of trucks and armored vehicles, and try to expand it by tossing in 300,000 who are mobilized (and these aren’t exactly like our Army Reserve and National Guard components), and you are reliant upon a rail system that is being challenged/restrained by Ukrainian territorial gains, you’re going to have a lot of problems getting any of those soldiers to the front.  And that’s not discussing the fact that you can’t train up that 300,000, even if they are former military.  

Bad Idea Jeans

Great till the last 30 seconds when he begged the world to find an offramp for Putin and to be willing to make huge sacrifices to appease him. Fuck that. 

27 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

Order these from least likely to most likely.  The below order is mine.

1) Intractable slog lasts for years until Western will gives out and Putin is on last legs or new leader is in place with less interest, borders resettle fairly pre-2022, with Crimea Russian and some small pockets of eastern Ukraine Russian.  Korea-like resolution.

2) Putin crosses some accepted line in the sand and things go wildly out of control.

3) Coup followed by Russian pull back.

4) Russian lines continue to collapse and Ukraine achieves its goals of retaking everything to 2014 borders.

5) Momentum swing happens and Russia gets back on the offensive to do their pre-war aims.

I'm somewhat confused. You think a momentum swing and Russia gets back on track is your most likely?!?

[Gatorubet 30235]

23 minutes ago, Orange&White said:

I don't have any issue with the US sending weapons. I fully support it and think they should send more. My issue is about Ukrainian officials bitching about the speed of delivery and type of weapons they are getting. Don't look a gift horse in the mouth and don't bite the hand that feeds you.

They are the ones dying, being raped, having cities destroyed.  They can bitch all they want and it won’t bother me. 

I’d love to know the true amount of captured ammo tho…

[atomheartbevo 89659]

Putin really fucked up.  He made the public announcement back in February.  Then his mouthpieces spent nearly 7 months playing up successes, and last week he was publicly humiliated by China and India, and it was shown in Russia.

Now his first public address since February is calling up 300,000 Russians.

That’s going to leave a mark.

[atomheartbevo 89659]

 

[atomheartbevo 89659]

 

[atomheartbevo 89659]

 

[Brisketexan 105123]

So, summarizing all of the posts above:

1 -- RUS is fucked in the east, because their logistics are toast.  They are almost entirely dependent on rail, and with rail now in range of rockets and artillery, trains are going to have to stop WAY behind the lines and any desirable junction/offloading point.

2 -- Connected with that, Russia doesn't have the trucks to get the necessary materiel, ammo, etc. to the front quickly and in sufficient numbers.

3 -- this means that the front will be inadequately supplied, and can be pushed back even further by the UKA.

4 -- lather, rinse, repeat.

The TLDR version: Russia's problems are most acute in terms of materiel, the loss of manpower is secondary.  Sending 300k more old men with AKs doesn't solve shit.  They need 300k men with tanks and artillery, with both supplied with sufficient fuel and ammo.  Which Russia simply cannot do.

Putin is getting more shrill, and using more bellicose language, because he is fucked.  And he jammed the splintered stick up his own ass -- he has nobody to blame but himself.

[Laxtonto 12080]

15 minutes ago, KYHorn said:

Really good thread summarizing Russian logistics' reliance on rail, and the role ATACMS could play in ending this all rather quickly. 

 

 

 

  Reveal hidden contents

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

This is why I said yesterday that there are 6 rail targets that could stop the war, but it is all about being able to get in range to do so..

2 are in range for sure (N/S from Dontesck to Luhansk, & SE feeder north of Kuplyansk), 2 more are close (E/W feeders for Dontesk & Luhansk), and then Kerch and Syvash. If you want to add a few more, there is the feeder north out of Melitopol before it branches to Kherson and to the NE, the feeder out of Rostov near Amvrosilvka, and the multiple train yards that are being used as a staging yard.

Keep hitting the rail and the RU will starve this winter. It isnt as elegant as a mad dash across enemy lines, but if the UKA keeps up continued pressure and there is no resupply, it doesnt matter. the RU will have to either pull out or surrender.

[Dahobbs 17534]

27 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

Great till the last 30 seconds when he begged the world to find an offramp for Putin and to be willing to make huge sacrifices to appease him. Fuck that. 

I'm somewhat confused. You think a momentum swing and Russia gets back on track is your most likely?!?

Yeah, that post and order are very strange. Either he thinks the most likely thing is that Russia somehow gets back on track for taking all of Ukraine. Or he believes the second most likely thing is Russia crossing a line and I guess thermonuclear war. Either of those opinions are fucking nuts. 

@BehoId, The Underminer! you're going to have to explain.  

[Parliament 14258]

1 hour ago, Dahobbs said:

I don't think that is a reliable source. Actually read the article, it is largely nonsense about Russia destroying HIMARs, the US  and the West running out of ammunition, and Russia's massive military manufacturing might (despite, you know, not actually being able to do any of those things). 

 

1 hour ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

The disinfo bots like your feed.

 

1 hour ago, SydneyCarton said:

I assume you mean less, but perhaps you mean more?

That was a trash article and I was about to say as much, but you beat me to it. That being said, considering the posting source, I'm not surprised.  I mean, who isn't aware of the international news powerhouse...checks notes...Eurasian Times. Lets look closer:

 

Know EurAsian Times

 

 

ByEurAsian Times Desk

May 20, 2017

The EurAsian Times is an Independent, Privately-Owned, Global, Virtual & Apolitical, English Language Digital News Site that specializes in reporting news and editorials on Global Affairs.

Established in 2014 as an Indian-Canadian digital venture, EurAsian Times has a strong editorial (online) presence in New Delhi, India with contributors and analysts almost from every continent specializing in an array of subjects.

ET specializes in penning analysis and OPEDs on International Defence and Global Politics and has been conducting deep, unbiased coverage on the Eurasian Region, Middle-East, South Asia and the Americas.

The news site also publishes interviews, personal narratives and reviews. A team of highly trained journalists, activists, defense experts, freelancers and artists contribute to the news site apart from the coverage by its staff writers and International News Agencies.

I got horswaggled.  Thank you for straightening me out.  I'll try better in the future.  Let my experience be a cautionary tale.

[statsman 5462]

The thing is- Ukraine gets a vote. They know who and what Russia is. They have children snatched away to deep Russia. The mass executions, the tortures, the rapes…Ukraine is a lot less likely to want to surrender goals than Russia. 
 
Western support? No illusions here, either. We all see the crap Russia is doing. This isn’t the Holodomor. The NYT doesn’t have a Russian correspondent in the Kremlin’s pocket, writing that all the allegations are overblown. 

Edited September 21, 2022 by statsman

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

40 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

I'm somewhat confused. You think a momentum swing and Russia gets back on track is your most likely?!?

you're right.  I meant most likely to least likely

[Pescado_Rojo 19416]

Is there anything that's more difficult about firing the ATACMS rounds from the HIMARS launchers, or does it use the same programing and launch sequence? Seems like now would be a good time to give them say, 50-100 rounds of ATACMS and tell them it's ONLY to be used to cut rail/road resupply routes. I'm sure the rounds are already in Poland and we're just waiting for the right time to let them have them.  

[AUS-97HORN 11758]

7 minutes ago, statsman said:

Western support? No illusions here, either. We all see the crap Russia is doing. This isn’t the Holodomor. The NYT doesn’t have a Russian correspondent in the Kremlin’s pocket, writing that all the allegations are overblown. 

No, that's Amnesty International's job now

[MillerEP 30455]

 

[crash_davis 23108]

 

[Ghost of LL 15531]

1 hour ago, Orange&White said:

I don't have any issue with the US sending weapons. I fully support it and think they should send more. My issue is about Ukrainian officials bitching about the speed of delivery and type of weapons they are getting. Don't look a gift horse in the mouth and don't bite the hand that feeds you.

Read up on Churchill's bitching about the speed of delivery and the types of weapons Britain was getting during World War II.  And if that doesn't cause you to blush, read up on what Stalin had to say.

And I don't really blame any of them.  When you're faced with your country being overrun by a genocidal horde, you're probably pretty impatient with your weapons deliveries.

24 minutes ago, Pescado_Rojo said:

Is there anything that's more difficult about firing the ATACMS rounds from the HIMARS launchers, or does it use the same programing and launch sequence? Seems like now would be a good time to give them say, 50-100 rounds of ATACMS and tell them it's ONLY to be used to cut rail/road resupply routes. I'm sure the rounds are already in Poland and we're just waiting for the right time to let them have them.  

The big problem is that the HIMARS can only fit one ATACMS missile on its launcher.  So that's a one-shot type of deal.  And since just about every target inside Ukraine is within HIMARS range, there's little additional benefit to the ATACMS.

If we really want to give the Ukrainians the ability to attack at distance, we ought to give them a few MQ-9s armed with Hellfire.  Or else fuck it--give them a bunch of AGM-86s.  We're retiring those suckers anyway.  And surely we can figure out a way to mount them on a MiG.

[ABSR 5311]

7 hours ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Shoigu has clarified that they plan to mobilize up to 300,000 more troops and offered reassurances that the mobilization will directly impact only a small percentage of even reservists.

I’m going to be very interested to see what specialties they are grabbing and mobilizing.  That will be key to understanding if my hunch is correct that Putin will be loathe to send too many of these conscript reserves to front-line fighting units.  This will be deeply unpopular in Russia and body bags will only exacerbate that.  I still think they will be looking for logistics, maintenance, and support specialties to free up more kontraktniki to go carry a rifle. 

I think they need grunts as badly as anything.   If I was a betting man I would place a large wager than very little of the 300K troops will be pulled from Moscow or St. Petersburg reserves.

[Homercles 10205]

1 hour ago, Gatorubet said:

They are the ones dying, being raped, having cities destroyed.  They can bitch all they want and it won’t bother me. 

I’d love to know the true amount of captured ammo tho…

Who can say they all actually work…

[crash_davis 23108]

another Putin ally accidentally dies.

https://www.newsweek.com/putin-ally-dies-falling-down-stairs-day-russia-mobilization-1744944

The former head of the Moscow Aviation Institute has died after falling down "several flights of stairs," the institute reported Wednesday.

Scientist Anatoly Gerashchenko, 72, "fell from a great height," according to the university, which described his death in the Russian capital as an accident.

Gerashchenko is the latest of several Russian businessmen, prominent figures and former allies of Vladimir Putin who have died in mysterious circumstances since the invasion of Ukraine on February 24, and the third this month.

[MillerEP 30455]

 

[MillerEP 30455]

 

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[MillerEP 30455]

 

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[MillerEP 30455]

 

[MillerEP 30455]

 

[MillerEP 30455]

 

[27-25 2047]

 

[DDD Dad 14339]

7 minutes ago, MillerEP said:

 

What do you think he thinks it means?  Explain it to me like I'm a 5th grader.

[Schulz2.0 28951]

 

[Catpfish 618]

28 minutes ago, DDD Dad said:

What do you think he thinks it means?  Explain it to me like I'm a 5th grader.

He thinks it means that the foreign freedom fighters sentenced to death have been released.  You have to read down through the replies.

[Schulz2.0 28951]

 

[Schulz2.0 28951]

 

[The Dog 44043]

 

[ShaggyBevo RIP 3868]

I don't have any issue with the US sending weapons. I fully support it and think they should send more. My issue is about Ukrainian officials bitching about the speed of delivery and type of weapons they are getting. Don't look a gift horse in the mouth and don't bite the hand that feeds you.

Keep in mind some of that is dis-info being pumped out.

[MillerEP 30455]

 

[MillerEP 30455]