Русский корабль - иди нахуй

[The Dog 43771]

^ LOL

[Skipper 6088]

15 minutes ago, Laxtonto said:

I am still  at a loss for trying to come up with a workable hypothesis on who benefits blowing up 2 inactive pipelines.

 

I saw a theory that an inoperable pipeline would negate contractual penalties for Russia failing to deliver purchased product.

[Dahobbs 17420]

8 minutes ago, jdhorn92 said:

Got to be the Russians.  They are selling plenty of gas to the Chicoms, Indians, Pakistanis of the world.  Blow the pipeline and the Euros have a cold winter, even if the war started to go their way, they would look good by saying something along the lines , "we'd love to help you , but you know, the pipeline your allies blew up is inop".

 

Scenario 2 is the war continues to go badly for the Russians, and thus , "well too bad, you should have not helped the UKes"

This is the answer. The only party that benefits is Russia. The pipeline does nothing for them anyway at this point. They get to keep gas shut off during winter to punish Europe, while getting to deny responsibility and blame Ukraine or the US and sow discord between allies.

[Scheiss Meister 8398]

17 minutes ago, Laxtonto said:

I am still  at a loss for trying to come up with a workable hypothesis on who benefits blowing up 2 inactive pipelines.

It really doesn’t benefit any of the players involved in all of this. Why would Russia blown up something that they already have turned off? Why would the US do it while knowing that Europe needs anything that goes through the pipeline and knowing that it would be an empty effort because the sanctions are effective already as is. Why would a European country do it knowing it would guarantee that they are going to have a fuel crisis this winter?

I can come up with a bunch of half baked false flag narratives, but I am at a loss for a solid logic stream of why one of the big players involved would be willing to do this… Need more info at this point to speculate I guess.

Can you show me the last logical decision that Putin has made?  From where I sit, he hasn't made a logical decision since January.

[RDCanecutter 26239]

1 hour ago, Macanudo said:

Am I the only one who thinks the "girlfriend" in this picture is hotter  than the "other woman"?

You have to see all the previous memes, where he's getting tired of her shit.

[Trey3216 15325]

14 minutes ago, Skipper said:

I saw a theory that an inoperable pipeline would negate contractual penalties for Russia failing to deliver purchased product.

It would also prevent Russia from making $$ on delivered product.   

[RDCanecutter 26239]

14 minutes ago, NorthLoop said:

1. to be assholes

2. to be assholes and blame it on someone else 

3. they don't even know why, same as every other decision they've made during this whole thing. 

4. hold my vodka

If the pipeline got "blown up," nobody comes around doing inventory on all the spare parts you sold to your brother-in-law's cousin.

[elfenix 34168]

24 minutes ago, jdhorn92 said:

They are selling plenty of gas to the Chicoms, Indians, Pakistanis of the world. 

aretheytho.gif

 

 

 

[Kwix 2186]

14 minutes ago, Scheiss Meister said:

Can you show me the last logical decision that Putin has made?  From where I sit, he hasn't made a logical decision since January.

This right here.  If something happens in this war that can't be explained by logic.  Look no further than Russia / Putin.

[Skipper 6088]

3 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

It would also prevent Russia from making $$ on delivered product.   

I guess the theory is they were going to stop delivering but didn't want to be in breach?  Who knows.  I mean if the Russians aren't going to deliver product not sure why they would draw the line at breach of contract so agreed unless I'm missing something it doesn't make a lot of sense.

[The Dog 43771]

 

[Fico 1743]

It was obviously a joint operation between the Norwegians, Danes and Poles. They wanted some fireworks for the grand opening of their new pipeline. 

[MillerEP 30339]

2 hours ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

I've seen a lot of discussion of the shame of killing off so many 20 somethings to the future of the country, but it seems to me the scale is off.  It's a country of 100MM+ with a third of those people being between 18 and 45.  Losing even a half million of them doesn't seem like it would really throw that much of a wrench in things.  It certainly didn't for us or them in WWII, for instance, at a much bigger death scale once you move out a few years. 

ABSR hits on it, but what you need to remember is that Russia is concerned about the "Right kind of Russians" i.e. ethnic Slavs. The entire existential crisis precipitating the last few invasions of their neighbors are predicated on helping ethnic Slavs and Russian speakers "who are being discriminated against, or deRussified," or whatever other nonsense he's saying. That's really all they care about. The overall numbers include a LOT of Buryats, Tuvans, Dagestani, etc. Those are NOT the Russians they care about, they're just colonial fodder to them. The main reason why Putler is trying so hard to push the false narrative that Ukrainians are all of the same blood, the same people, and just self-loathing Russians, and why he is kidnapping ethnic Slavic children is to boost the numbers of his specific ethnicity. Capturing wide swaths of your neighbor's territory and them making them all "Russians" also boosts those numbers for him. That's also why he's been careful not to touch Moscow, St Petersburg, etc. too much. This is mostly a war of demographics. 

Edited September 27, 2022 by MillerEP

[Humble Beast 258]

29 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

This is the answer. The only party that benefits is Russia. The pipeline does nothing for them anyway at this point. They get to keep gas shut off during winter to punish Europe, while getting to deny responsibility and blame Ukraine or the US and sow discord between allies.

Russia probably did it, but to think that there’s no reason for Ukraine/US to want those pipelines blown is kind of silly. 
 

Reasons Russia to do it. 
 

False flag to justify other coming attacks on European infrastructure. This could be all of it. 
 

Stir the pot among allies. 
 

There’s the theory about fines that Skipper mentioned. Although I don’t see how Putin cares about the rules. 
 

Reasons for US/allies to do it. 
 

Eliminates any small chance of a de-escalation or possibility of reversal of gas shutdowns. Gets rid of Putin’s only leverage. If you want Putin out it helps to eliminate any possible out for him before this war is resolved. 
 

The fact that it comes a day after Italy elects a right wing leader that states support for Ukraine, but has allies that have floated going back on Russian sanctions is unusual timing. Perhaps stop that trend before it even gets any legs elsewhere?

 

 

FWIW no one officially seems too worked up about it. Not sure what to make of that. 
 

 

Flame away  

 

[Laxtonto 11926]

Outside of this being involved in a full court press approach prior to the winter to force Ukraine’s allies make them approach the negotiating table and accept a deal that let’s Russia save face, I can’t see a reasonable midterm or longterm play on this from RU side. 

And even that scenario seems a bit daft. So they blow up the “carrot” while using conscripts as the stick? That makes little sense if the conscript can’t outperform the current boots on the ground. Unless repairs on the pipeline is relatively simple, then now there is nothing to be gained from the bargaining table.

”Hey, force the UKA to accept the current front as the new border and we will”… what? They can’t turn the gas on for the winter now, so what?  
 

Best case scenario would be the European nations thinking that if the war is over we aren’t spending on supplying arms and so we will spend it on buying an inflated price for gas? I guess in a sicko bizzaro world idea it would be great to be able to gouge Europe by having them stop the war and still pay super high prices for gas because we blew up our pipelines already?

Like I said the rational logic in this is a mess for all sides, unless there is a major piece of info that we just don’t have. Like others in Europe would be willing to do this is one nation has already approached Moscow about a peace treaty. Or Moscow realizing that they are about to lose their arbitration case about transport fees through the Ukraine and this is a preventative measure. 
 

With it being in commercial diving range, is there anyone else that would benefit, not in the region.

[Chad Fuck 17503]

I am still  at a loss for trying to come up with a workable hypothesis on who benefits blowing up 2 inactive pipelines.
It really doesn’t benefit any of the players involved in all of this. Why would Russia blown up something that they already have turned off? Why would the US do it while knowing that Europe needs anything that goes through the pipeline and knowing that it would be an empty effort because the sanctions are effective already as is. Why would a European country do it knowing it would guarantee that they are going to have a fuel crisis this winter?
I can come up with a bunch of half baked false flag narratives, but I am at a loss for a solid logic stream of why one of the big players involved would be willing to do this… Need more info at this point to speculate I guess.

The one player who has consistently done stupid irrational shit since this whole debacle started is Russia. Everyone else seems to be acting rationally.

Therefore, Russia did it.

[InkaUtexas 25426]

 

[MillerEP 30339]

There is close to 0 chance Ukraine did this. Not only because they have no NAVY, but that would mean they would have to somehow get a ship all the into the Baltic Sea with explosives and diving equipment to do this. I'm pretty sure somebody would've noticed something because they'd have to fly to Poland, Denmark, or Sweden and then charter a ship in order to do this:

[Pato del Muerto 52322]

21 minutes ago, Skipper said:

I guess the theory is they were going to stop delivering but didn't want to be in breach?  Who knows.  I mean if the Russians aren't going to deliver product not sure why they would draw the line at breach of contract so agreed unless I'm missing something it doesn't make a lot of sense.

Blame the US (or anyone else) to get Europe  to stop blaming Russia for no gas/ high cost of heating, start internal bickering amongst nato nations. 

[SquishMitten 10395]

15 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

I don’t remember why tampons don’t work with wounds or whatever, but when my BIL went to Afghanistan, I joked about sending some, and he said they cause more problems than they can fix.

I'd imagine they act like a sponge and could actually draw blood out

[Dahobbs 17420]

3 minutes ago, Humble Beast said:

Russia probably did it, but to think that there’s no reason for Ukraine/US to want those pipelines blown is kind of silly. 
Reasons for US/allies to do it. 

Eliminates any small chance of a de-escalation or possibility of reversal of gas shutdowns. Gets rid of Putin’s only leverage. If you want Putin out it helps to eliminate any possible out for him before this war is resolved. 
 

This makes zero sense. First, de-escalation of the war isn't a risk to avoid. It is a desired outcome. Second, as you've indicated, the chance that 1) Europe decides it wants to be reliant on Russian gas again and 2) Russia decides it wants to sell gas again to Europe rather than punish Europe for supporting Ukraine, is essentially zero. So, taking a radical step with incredibly severe consequences if discovered to combat a "risk" that has almost no possibility of occurring is... uh, completely illogical. 

Quote

FWIW no one officially seems too worked up about it. Not sure what to make of that. 

Gee, no one is that worked up about the pipeline that hasn't been providing gas because 1) Russia doesn't want to provide gas to Europe, and 2) Europe doesn't want to be dependent on Russian gas going forward. I can't imagine why. 

[MillerEP 30339]

 

[Dahobbs 17420]

13 minutes ago, Laxtonto said:

Outside of this being involved in a full court press approach prior to the winter to force Ukraine’s allies make them approach the negotiating table and accept a deal that let’s Russia save face, I can’t see a reasonable midterm or longterm play on this from RU side. 

And even that scenario seems a bit daft. So they blow up the “carrot” while using conscripts as the stick? That makes little sense if the conscript can’t outperform the current boots on the ground. Unless repairs on the pipeline is relatively simple, then now there is nothing to be gained from the bargaining table.

”Hey, force the UKA to accept the current front as the new border and we will”… what? They can’t turn the gas on for the winter now, so what?  
 

Best case scenario would be the European nations thinking that if the war is over we aren’t spending on supplying arms and so we will spend it on buying an inflated price for gas? I guess in a sicko bizzaro world idea it would be great to be able to gouge Europe by having them stop the war and still pay super high prices for gas because we blew up our pipelines already?

Like I said the rational logic in this is a mess for all sides, unless there is a major piece of info that we just don’t have. Like others in Europe would be willing to do this is one nation has already approached Moscow about a peace treaty. Or Moscow realizing that they are about to lose their arbitration case about transport fees through the Ukraine and this is a preventative measure. 
 

With it being in commercial diving range, is there anyone else that would benefit, not in the region.

Russia is already in a mess. Making it a mess for everyone and sowing discord among Europe, Ukraine, and the US, is its best move. Hell, it is the move it had been using successfully for at least 10 years prior to its invasion. How are you not seeing this? 

[MillerEP 30339]

 

[MillerEP 30339]

 

[Pods 7522]

It's blatantly obvious that Russia did this. It's terrorism. Russia is the only party in this conflict that has repeatedly committed terrorist attacks.  

Terrorism and lies is what they do. 

 

1 hour ago, Foosters said:

We have posters on this website blaming the US right now. One, has been banned at least 3 times for spreading misinformation, Anti-vax info, and Russian propaganda. But he keeps coming back, and the mods condone it. 

 

At least 4 times that I can recall and there were others as well. 

GRhorn/Satoshi/Immaculate Vibes/Caponata. Now Humble Beast and he'll be back with a new one as soon as we ban this one, because the mods apparently don't give a shit. 

Should make you wonder why someone would spend YEARS poisoning our message board, spreading pro-Putin/anti US disinformation and lies, despite these lies, and the liar, being repeatedly rejected by the community. 

 

1 hour ago, Gengs1 said:

Get ready for the bots to Blame Ukraine for this. 
even if they did it 

Our resident Putin trollbot is quite active on the topic already. Just asking questions. 

 

[MillerEP 30339]

 

[MillerEP 30339]

 

[InkaUtexas 25426]

Damn look at that camp. All their shit is civilian it looks like. So there are no water jugs in the Russian army inventory? 

Nice tents.....  Homeless in Austin have better set ups. 

[ryskey 447]

Lots of factions within Russia that have wildly divergent interests.  My money is on a faction of hard line Russian military or FSB - the sabotage removes one of the key "risks" to diplomatic solution.  As long as trade with Europe is mutually beneficial, there is an incentive to continue entertaining a diplomatic end to the conflict.  On the other end of the spectrum is the sub-faction of commercially-minded oligarchs whose wealth is directly tied to continued gas flows to Europe.  They are probably pretty pissed off. 

The potash/nickel//iron/etc oligarchs might be sympathetic to FSB hardliners since their pocketbooks aren't being hit.

[MillerEP 30339]

 

[Ghost of LL 15348]

4 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Damn look at that camp. All their shit is civilian it looks like. So there are no water jugs in the Russian army inventory? 

Nice tents.....  Homeless in Austin have better set ups. 

Yeah--so don't underestimate the number of Russians whoa re going to die of cholera, dysentery, and typhus.

[Humble Beast 258]

29 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

This makes zero sense. First, de-escalation of the war isn't a risk to avoid. It is a desired outcome. Second, as you've indicated, the chance that 1) Europe decides it wants to be reliant on Russian gas again and 2) Russia decides it wants to sell gas again to Europe rather than punish Europe for supporting Ukraine, is essentially zero. So, taking a radical step with incredibly severe consequences if discovered to combat a "risk" that has almost no possibility of occurring is... uh, completely illogical. 

Gee, no one is that worked up about the pipeline that hasn't been providing gas because 1) Russia doesn't want to provide gas to Europe, and 2) Europe doesn't want to be dependent on Russian gas going forward. I can't imagine why. 

I think it’s pretty clear that our Govt has decided we have an opportunity to eliminate Putin by the end of this conflict and we are going to pursue that by several means.
 

As such, I don’t think de-escalation is something we’re interested in with Russia on the ropes. Do you?

Edited September 27, 2022 by Humble Beast

[InkaUtexas 25426]

1 minute ago, Ghost of LL said:

Yeah--so don't underestimate the number of Russians whoa re going to die of cholera, dysentery, and typhus.

And straight up hypothermia. Yuri and Sergei are in their trench in December. Cold as shit. Decide to light a fire, but since they have no winter training they use wet wood. Drone sees the smoke and they get a visit from Mr. Artillery. The front will suck for them once the cold really hits. It is already getting only into the 50's during the day. 

[MillerEP 30339]

 

[Humble Beast 258]

12 minutes ago, ryskey said:

Lots of factions within Russia that have wildly divergent interests.  My money is on a faction of hard line Russian military or FSB - the sabotage removes one of the key "risks" to diplomatic solution.  As long as trade with Europe is mutually beneficial, there is an incentive to continue entertaining a diplomatic end to the conflict.  On the other end of the spectrum is the sub-faction of commercially-minded oligarchs whose wealth is directly tied to continued gas flows to Europe.  They are probably pretty pissed off. 

The potash/nickel//iron/etc oligarchs might be sympathetic to FSB hardliners since their pocketbooks aren't being hit.

This is a good point. There are Russian hardliners that think Putin isn’t being aggressive enough. Could’ve been them permanently eliminating the out. 

Edited September 27, 2022 by Humble Beast

[MillerEP 30339]

 

[MillerEP 30339]

^👀

 

[SquishMitten 10395]

1 hour ago, Laxtonto said:

I am still  at a loss for trying to come up with a workable hypothesis on who benefits blowing up 2 inactive pipelines.

It really doesn’t benefit any of the players involved in all of this. Why would Russia blown up something that they already have turned off? Why would the US do it while knowing that Europe needs anything that goes through the pipeline and knowing that it would be an empty effort because the sanctions are effective already as is. Why would a European country do it knowing it would guarantee that they are going to have a fuel crisis this winter?

I can come up with a bunch of half baked false flag narratives, but I am at a loss for a solid logic stream of why one of the big players involved would be willing to do this… Need more info at this point to speculate I guess.

Best theory I've got... a bit John Grisham or Tom Clancy-ish, but someone wanted to make sure the gas couldn't be turned back on. If it's no longer possible, certain countries can't even begin to entertain the idea of making a deal with Russia.

ETA: I'm not saying this is more likely than some half-cocked Russian plan. It's just the best theory I could come up with for it being anybody else

Edited September 27, 2022 by SquishMitten

[MillerEP 30339]

 

[Parliament 14112]

35 minutes ago, SquishMitten said:

I'd imagine they act like a sponge and could actually draw blood out

I think he's saying that a woman (connected to a tampon) is a bigger problem than bleeding out.

[MillerEP 30339]

 

[MillerEP 30339]

On September 21, he went for mobilization, on the 27th he was already in captivity.

 

[DDD Dad 14167]

1 hour ago, Laxtonto said:

I am still  at a loss for trying to come up with a workable hypothesis on who benefits blowing up 2 inactive pipelines.

It really doesn’t benefit any of the players involved in all of this. Why would Russia blown up something that they already have turned off? Why would the US do it while knowing that Europe needs anything that goes through the pipeline and knowing that it would be an empty effort because the sanctions are effective already as is. Why would a European country do it knowing it would guarantee that they are going to have a fuel crisis this winter?

I can come up with a bunch of half baked false flag narratives, but I am at a loss for a solid logic stream of why one of the big players involved would be willing to do this… Need more info at this point to speculate I guess.

[jdhorn92 1535]

1 hour ago, elfenix said:

aretheytho.gif

 

 

 

Nat gas , no.  But oil to the chicoms and Indians is a full go and has been this whole 6 mos.  According to Reuters, record number of imports in fact. 
 

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/china-extends-record-imports-russian-oil-into-june-cuts-saudi-supply-trade-2022-07-06/

Edited September 27, 2022 by jdhorn92

[RDCanecutter 26239]

13 minutes ago, MillerEP said:

 

That's the Manor-Littig-Elgin back way circa 1997.

[Pods 7522]

14 minutes ago, SquishMitten said:

Best theory I've got... a bit John Grisham or Tom Clancy-ish, but someone wanted to make sure the gas couldn't be turned back on. If it's no longer possible, certain countries can't even begin to entertain the idea of making a deal with Russia.

Quick Checklist:

Was it stupid? Yes. It's Russia.

Was it terrorism? Yes. It's Russia. 

Are German stockpiles of NG full enough to survive the winter without any Russian gas? Yes. It's Russia.

Is GRUHorn on here trying to spread doubt and uncertainty about whether Russia did it? Yes. It's Russia.

It's Russia. 

The only entities that would even consider something like this are all Russian. They are the only parties to this conflict that repeatedly inflict acts of terrorism. It's absurd to think it was anyone else. 

Edited September 27, 2022 by Pods

[SydneyCarton 47809]

16 minutes ago, Humble Beast said:

I think it’s pretty clear that our Govt has decided we have an opportunity to eliminate Putin by the end of this conflict and we are going to pursue that by several means.
 

As such, I don’t think de-escalation is something we’re interested in with Russia on the ropes. Do you?

Yes. I think every country and person who isn't you or a Russian mouthpiece is interested in de-escalation. If Russia announced they'd leave Ukraine and accept pre-2014 borders immediately, and return all the kids and families they stole from Ukraine, everyone would immediately say "Yup, great, where do we sign." So yes, everyone is interested in de-escalation, except you. 

[Armybrat 40678]

1 hour ago, Trey3216 said:

It would also prevent Russia from making $$ on delivered product.   

Yeah, full $$ price on their product instead of the heavily discounted gas & oil to their “buddy” Xi.

[Brisketexan 104465]

12 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Damn look at that camp. All their shit is civilian it looks like. So there are no water jugs in the Russian army inventory? 

Nice tents.....  Homeless in Austin have better set ups. 

That was absolutely my first impression -- these are troops of the military of a "major power?"  They are living in absolute squalor.  We've seen that throughout this war -- when the UKA captures a russian position, the scene looks like a damned homeless camp in the woods off of 290.

3 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

And straight up hypothermia. Yuri and Sergei are in their trench in December. Cold as shit. Decide to light a fire, but since they have no winter training they use wet wood. Drone sees the smoke and they get a visit from Mr. Artillery. The front will suck for them once the cold really hits. It is already getting only into the 50's during the day. 

Yeah, take what I wrote above and quintuple  it for winter.  They're gonna manage to make Valley Forge look like a Club Med before all is said and done.