Русский корабль - иди нахуй

[Schulz2.0 28752]

10 minutes ago, Captainant said:

100% agree, I don't think the US did this. Just thought it was an interesting historical parallel I came across reading last night. OTOH @Zeusand @maninblackare big proponents of the Kremlin/karlson theory of the US bearing responsibility 

[atomheartbevo 89363]

5 minutes ago, AUS-97HORN said:

I really would have thought after 2-3 days after the mobilization order was given when it became obvious that it was every male being called up in every city not named St Pete or Moscow that any american citizens would have left....

but then I remembered that as a general rule, the average american is dumber than a box of rocks.  and now telling them a full week later to GTFO is gonna rile up a lot of folks

HEY FUCK YOU, YOU'RE NOT MY DAD, IF YOU TELL ME I SHOULD LEAVE, I'M GOING TO STAY EVEN HARDER! I'M AN AMERICAN, THEY AREN'T GOING TO MESS WITH ME, IN FACT I'LL START FILMING EVERY DEMONSTRATION I SEE AGAINST RUSSIANS FIGHTING THE NAZIS IN UKRAINE AND I'LL MAKE SURE AND GET UP CLOSE TO THE RUSSIAN POLICE OFFICERS WHEN I'M FILMING AND I'LL TELL THEM I'M AN AMERICAN AND I HAVE FREEDOM OF THE PRESS AND WHAT THE FUCK WHY ARE THEY PUTTING ME IN THIS VAN? 

[Newdoc 3429]

I have no clue who sabotaged the pipeline but if it was the Russian government, then why didn't Putin just say "FU, I'm turning off the tap."? It's not like another country was going to commander the origin point in Russia and take over Russian NG operations.  Really weird situation. 

[Captainant 27311]

4 minutes ago, Newdoc said:

I have no clue who sabotaged the pipeline but if it was the Russian government, then why didn't Putin just say "FU, I'm turning off the tap."? It's not like another country was going to commander the origin point in Russia and take over Russian NG operations.  Really weird situation. 

Yeah but doing it this way churns up more mud and muck that can be used in the media battle to distract from more inconvenient domestic narratives. After the last half decade it's a pretty familiar tactic, at least when the state and its media apparatus are coordinated

Edited September 28, 2022 by Captainant

[Left Coast 863]

Unfortunately for them it doesn’t seem like many people give a shit about the pipeline.

[atomheartbevo 89363]

2 minutes ago, Left Coast said:

Unfortunately for them it doesn’t seem like many people give a shit about the pipeline.

A few months ago, it would have caused a huge stir.  But there's been too many threats from Putin and the talking heads on Russian state media threatening to cut off the gas, combined with Europe trying to find alternate suppliers to Russia, so it's become almost a non-issue.

[Schulz2.0 28752]

14 minutes ago, Newdoc said:

I have no clue who sabotaged the pipeline but if it was the Russian government, then why didn't Putin just say "FU, I'm turning off the tap."? It's not like another country was going to commander the origin point in Russia and take over Russian NG operations.  Really weird situation. 

There are plenty of gullible idiots that will blame the US/Ukraine. It's already driving up the price of natural gas in Europe.

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12301]

What impact does this have on western nations’ reliance on commerce with China? Surely this is causing a massive recalculation of cost/benefit analysis of doing business with autocratic governments?

Or are we so shortsighted that we’ll simply wait for them to attack Taiwan before taking real action to mitigate our reliance on their cheap goods?

[NotActuallyALonghorn 4965]

Why do y'all think Russia would blow the pipeline for some outside reason? They do stuff like this so they can claim somebody else did to get their own population to support the war. Especially with the protests about mobilization going on right now. They don't care what we think or how it affects us. They only care what Russians think about the pipeline that US Nazi NATO terrorist blew up.

Edited September 28, 2022 by NotActuallyALonghorn

[Newdoc 3429]

20 minutes ago, Captainant said:

Yeah but doing it this way churns up more mud and muck that can be used in the media battle to distract from more inconvenient domestic narratives. After the last half decade it's a pretty familiar tactic, at least when the state and its media apparatus are coordinated

Putin playing the "world against us" and "attacking poor innocent Russia". I see. Putin's crazy but he isn't stupid. And many fewer Russians worry about people freezing in northern Europe. Lack of power and heat may make some countries a little more desperate.   Talk about further destabilization. 

Edited September 28, 2022 by Newdoc
For NAL

[NotActuallyALonghorn 4965]

Fewer.

[Newdoc 3429]

1 minute ago, NotActuallyALonghorn said:

Why do y'all think Russia would blow the pipeline for some outside reason. They do stuff like this so they can claim somebody else did to get their own population to support the war. Especially with the protests about mobilization going on right now. They don't care what we think or how it affects us. They only care what Russians think about the pipeline that US Nazi NATO terrorist blew up.

You can expect the Russian bots to feed this narrative into U.S. social media and of course, so will Tucker C. 

[Schulz2.0 28752]

 

[Newdoc 3429]

1 minute ago, NotActuallyALonghorn said:

Fewer.

 

Thanks mom.

[SydneyCarton 47809]

 

42 minutes ago, Captainant said:

100% agree, I don't think the US did this. Just thought it was an interesting historical parallel I came across reading last night. OTOH @Zeusand @maninblackare big proponents of the Kremlin/karlson theory of the US bearing responsibility 

Why in the FUCK would you summon them here?

19 minutes ago, Left Coast said:

Unfortunately for them it doesn’t seem like many people give a shit about the pipeline.

Humble Beast cares very deeply, sir. Bite your tongue. 

7 minutes ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

What impact does this have on western nations’ reliance on commerce with China? Surely this is causing a massive recalculation of cost/benefit analysis of doing business with autocratic governments?

Or are we so shortsighted that we’ll simply wait for them to attack Taiwan before taking real action to mitigate our reliance on their cheap goods?

You'd think, but hey, we should already have manufacturing, chip manufacturing, pharmaceutical and medical production sourced here in the US for national security reasons, and yet here we are. Didn't that chip bill only pass recently along party lines?

Add in the fact that it's individual companies that choose to do business with China, for reasons of profit, and then spend ungodly money on campaigns where political parties accuse any effort to subvert doing business with China as "anti-capitalism" and straight up "communism" and well, here we are...fastened about the neck to an evil anchor because we like $500 flat screen TVs. So, to answer your question, Yes we are that shortsighted. 

Edited September 28, 2022 by SydneyCarton

[Schulz2.0 28752]

11 minutes ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

What impact does this have on western nations’ reliance on commerce with China? Surely this is causing a massive recalculation of cost/benefit analysis of doing business with autocratic governments?

Or are we so shortsighted that we’ll simply wait for them to attack Taiwan before taking real action to mitigate our reliance on their cheap goods?

Some businesses have been moving manufacturing out of China for a while.

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12301]

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12301]

Just now, Schulz2.0 said:

Some businesses have been moving manufacturing out of China for a while.

I’d assume they are doing so for motives unrelated to national security. I’m speaking more about public policy.

[Schulz2.0 28752]

Just now, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

I’d assume they are doing so for motives unrelated to national security. I’m speaking more about public policy.

Logistics

[Fico 1743]

12 minutes ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

What impact does this have on western nations’ reliance on commerce with China? Surely this is causing a massive recalculation of cost/benefit analysis of doing business with autocratic governments?

Or are we so shortsighted that we’ll simply wait for them to attack Taiwan before taking real action to mitigate our reliance on their cheap goods?

It looks if some might be waking up but still very early and a lot to do. 

CNBC Article -

Leading chipmaking nations including the U.S. are forming alliances, in part to secure their semiconductor supply chain and to stop China from reaching the cutting edge of the industry, analysts told CNBC.

Places including the United States, South Korea, Japan and Taiwan, which have strong semiconductor industries, have looked to forge partnerships around the critical technology.

[Macanudo 12922]

1 hour ago, Gengs1 said:

USA has been 2 steps ahead of Russia.

I am sure there are a lot of Russian Americans who go there and support Putin from America.

Then let them show their true support by becoming sunflower fertilizer. 

[Laxtonto 11926]

I don’t know about the standard boilerplate for notices from the embassy in Moscow, but the warnings about avoiding protests, not filming them, and that the right to protest is not a right in Russia seems rather ominous to me.

If that is not standard boilerplate, so they expect a major uptick in protests and is that potentially tied to another escalation via policy?

[Schulz2.0 28752]

16 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

You'd think, but hey, we should already have manufacturing, chip manufacturing, pharmaceutical and medical production sourced here in the US for national security reasons, and yet here we are. Didn't that chip bill only pass recently along party lines?

Not all chip manufacturing makes sense in the US due to costs. Moving the manufacturing out of mainly China/Taiwan makes sense. Moving it to our region makes sense. 

Edited September 28, 2022 by Schulz2.0

[Fico 1743]

1 minute ago, Laxtonto said:

I don’t know about the standard boilerplate for notices from the embassy in Moscow, but the warnings about avoiding protests, not filming them, and that the right to protest is not a right in Russia seems rather ominous to me.

If that is not standard boilerplate, so they expect a major uptick in protests and is that potentially tied to another escalation via policy?

Wouldn't that be tied to the mobilization that is on going? 

Added bonus, if you do show up and film it, good chance you are about to get to film some close in trench warfare.

[atomheartbevo 89363]

 

[Macanudo 12922]

10 minutes ago, Schulz2.0 said:

Logistics

Profit.

[Dahobbs 17420]

40 minutes ago, Newdoc said:

I have no clue who sabotaged the pipeline but if it was the Russian government, then why didn't Putin just say "FU, I'm turning off the tap."? It's not like another country was going to commander the origin point in Russia and take over Russian NG operations.  Really weird situation. 

The tap was already off. The pipelines associated with Nord Stream 2 had been inactive due to the sanctions. And Russia had already chosen to shut off the pipeline for Nord Stream 1. That's precisely why this was a no risk action by Russia. 

1) It wanted the pipelines off to punish Europe for supporting Ukraine;

2) Destroying the pipeline allows it to argue that someone else did it (e.g., Ukraine, US) and that person is responsible if Europe can't get gas and freezes;

3) Creates confusion and doubt among Ukraine and its allies.

Alternatively, no one in Europe, the US, or Ukraine benefits from destroying the pipeline. Europe needs gas. Ukraine needs support from Europe. US needs to keep the alliance together. If anyone besides Russia is discovered to have destroyed the pipeline, it risks the entire alliance, Ukraine's support, hell, it risks instability in NATO itself. There is no real, tangible benefit to anyone but Russia.

Again, this isn't that complicated. It is the same playbook Russia has been using for the last decade. Create confusion, chaos, and instability in the west. That's it.  

[atomheartbevo 89363]

Fucking ghouls, kidnapping and brainwashing kids.

 

[Pato del Muerto 52322]

Anyone with American citizenship that is still in Russia at this point, we don’t want back. They are either too Russian or too stupid. Let them find out. 

[The Dog 43771]

6 minutes ago, Laxtonto said:

I don’t know about the standard boilerplate for notices from the embassy in Moscow, but the warnings about avoiding protests, not filming them, and that the right to protest is not a right in Russia seems rather ominous to me.

If that is not standard boilerplate, so they expect a major uptick in protests and is that potentially tied to another escalation via policy?

 

2 minutes ago, Fico said:

Wouldn't that be tied to the mobilization that is on going? 

Added bonus, if you do show up and film it, good chance you are about to get to film some close in trench warfare.

My understanding is to prevent US citizens from being mobilized by Russia.

Putin doesn't care where you're from - if you're there and are male between 18-99 then he's going to send you to fight so get the fuck out now.

[Brisketexan 104465]

36 minutes ago, Left Coast said:

Unfortunately for them it doesn’t seem like many people give a shit about the pipeline.

Speaking of which....is there ANY follow up discussion/buzz on the Russian school shooting by the guy wearing nazi gear and the names of the Columbine shooters?  That story died on day one, from what I've seen.

[Fico 1743]

It's been said many times before, but this thread is fucking great. The range and depth of topics discussed. The high level information throughput. The laughs and the dusty moments. Fucking proud to be a part of this community. 

[atomheartbevo 89363]

 

[Laxtonto 11926]

1 minute ago, Fico said:

Wouldn't that be tied to the mobilization that is on going? 

Added bonus, if you do show up and film it, good chance you are about to get to film some close in trench warfare.

Possible, but if this was related to the current mobilization, wouldn’t this warning been already in effect?

What worries me is the rumored address by Putin on the 30th regarding the annexation and what other additional topics does he address. If he pushes greater mobilization or partial martial law, or even announcing the move from special operation to true war footing, I could see a serious ramp up in protest and a scenario where it is very dangerous to be in Russia as an American.

[Macanudo 12922]

8 minutes ago, Laxtonto said:

I don’t know about the standard boilerplate for notices from the embassy in Moscow, but the warnings about avoiding protests, not filming them, and that the right to protest is not a right in Russia seems rather ominous to me.

If that is not standard boilerplate, so they expect a major uptick in protests and is that potentially tied to another escalation via policy?

They'll just have to use the Britney Griner Dumbass Defense... "I didn't know the laws of  [insert country X] were different than the US and/or I packed in a hurry because I was late for my flight."

[Schulz2.0 28752]

4 minutes ago, Macanudo said:

Profit.

If you can't get your product out of China because of COVID lockdowns, it affects your profit. Same shit.

[Macanudo 12922]

4 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

 

Also, if you're not being mobilized, they can sell you a car but the floor mats and clear coat will cost you extra.

[Ghost of LL 15348]

9 hours ago, InkaUtexas said:

In the 10+ years watching the US Army in the Balkans and Afghanistan I never saw a US Soldier on top of an M-1 or even a Bradley. They are inferior fucks for sure and still want to use the tactics from 1944. 

Yes, the Russians are using the same tactics, strategy, and logistics that they used during the Great Patriotic War.  Drafting a huge conscript army, sending it mal-equipped to defend fixed positions, from which the leadership dictates that they cannot retreat, using "blocking units" to enforce the no-retreat order--it's all straight out of the GPW playbook.

But why should it be any different?  Russia hasn't fought a significant conventional war since the Great Patriotic War.*

Contrast that with the United States Army.  The US Army has been engaged in a major conventional war pretty regularly from 1941 to the present day.  Korea; Vietnam, Iraq, Iraq again--since 1941, the US Army has never gone more than 15 years without being engaged in a significant conventional war.  

So that does two things.  First, it means that your senior officers/NCOs always have combat experience.  But beyond that, it gives the Pentagon a real-world test to develop new battle plans and see what works and what doesn't.

Russia doesn't have that.  Their most recent test of what works and what doesn't is the GPW.  But aside from being 80 years ago--and there have been a few technological developments in the last 80 years, this isn't the Great Patriotic War:

• Russia doesn't have nearly as large a population today as it did in 1941 (194M vs 144M).  So the available pool of conscripts is about one-quarter smaller;
• Ukraine isn't fighting a two-front war, with the Western Allies keeping 40% of its army engaged in places like North Africa, Italy, and France;
• Russia isn't getting supplies from the United States.   

The last one is the really big one that has been ignored by Soviet/Russia historiography.  The Soviet Union was only available to fight because of Lend-Lease supplies.  The Russians have long written about the T-34 as being the great achievement of Russian manufacturing/logistics that won the war (ignoring the enormous number of Patton and Sherman tanks that the Red Army used).  But the T-34 was built on an American chassis with American steel.  It ran on American diesel and fired American ammunition.  It was crewed by guys wearing American boots and eating Spam.

Russia supplied the meat for the grinder in the GPW, but it was a victory of American manufacturing and technology.

Their historiography/propaganda leaves off that second bit.  So now they're going to just feed meat into the grinder.  But without the manufacturing and technology, all you get is ground meat.  And that's what Russia is going to come away with.

 

 

 

*  No, I'm not counting Afghanistan or Chechnya.  Those were counter-insurgency operations.  And they're very different from a significant conventional war against a national army that can field armor and artillery.

But it does raise the observation that before the Russians broke out the GPW playbook, they were running the Afghanistan playbook.  That's what they expected--to quickly take over the capital, install a puppet regime, and then conduct a large counter-insurgency operation.  That's reflected by the fact that they were sending in VDV units on aluminum BMPs in the first wave.

And no, I'm also not county Georgia any more than I am counting Panama or Grenada.

[The Dog 43771]

 

[Fico 1743]

6 minutes ago, The Dog said:

 

My understanding is to prevent US citizens from being mobilized by Russia.

Putin doesn't care where you're from - if you're there and are male between 18-99 then he's going to send you to fight so get the fuck out now.

Agree. But if you need the embassy to tell you not to go to a Russian protest of mobilization as a American male between 16-Death, you deserve to be mobilized. Good news is you are so fucking insanely dumb, you will be a net negative to the Russian army.

3 minutes ago, Laxtonto said:

Possible, but if this was related to the current mobilization, wouldn’t this warning been already in effect?

What worries me is the rumored address by Putin on the 30th regarding the annexation and what other additional topics does he address. If he pushes greater mobilization or partial martial law, or even announcing the move from special operation to true war footing, I could see a serious ramp up in protest and a scenario where it is very dangerous to be in Russia as an American.

Fair point. While Putin may announce martial law, the country is already operating under martial law and if not fully on a war footing, it's not far away. But as you say, who the fuck knows what that fuckbag is going to say on the 30th. 

[KYHorn 16808]

1 minute ago, The Dog said:

 

Just came here to post this. Really cool overview, though probably not any info that folks in this thread don't already know. 

 

 

[KYHorn 16808]

 

 

 

 

Edited September 28, 2022 by KYHorn

[kevwun 15596]

21 minutes ago, Schulz2.0 said:

Not all chip manufacturing makes sense in the US due to costs. Moving the manufacturing out of mainly China/Taiwan makes sense. Moving it to our region makes sense. 

Maybe one day I will be able to order a switch at work and get it in 3 days again instead of 6+ months.

[MagicSoccerSpray 1725]

2 hours ago, Dahobbs said:

There is only one country for whom destroying the pipeline is essentially a zero risk endeavour. Everyone else sacrifices something or risks world changing blowback if discovered with very little benefit. Stop overthinking this. It was Russia. Full stop. 

 

https://www.defenseone.com/ideas/2022/09/nord-stream-leaks-underline-gray-zone-risks/377701/

[atomheartbevo 89363]

2 minutes ago, Laxtonto said:

What worries me is the rumored address by Putin on the 30th regarding the annexation and what other additional topics does he address. If he pushes greater mobilization or partial martial law, or even announcing the move from special operation to true war footing, I could see a serious ramp up in protest and a scenario where it is very dangerous to be in Russia as an American.

Yeah, the address on the 30th is worrisome - depending on who you ask, the referendum was rushed through to be counted in time for the 30th, or the 30th was chosen because it was a few days after the referendum ended.

The things I keep seeing come up around the 30th from online chatter: 

• Occupied areas of Ukraine are now considered Russia (we saw this after 2014), and Putin announces conscripts will fight there.
• Putin will take the occasion to formally introduce martial law in Russia (something the Russian Duma approved last week).  This includes closing the borders and changing some manufacturing to benefit the war effort.  Also, as a part of the new laws or whatever approved by the Duma last week, Russians can be compelled to work overtime in certain industries that benefit the war effort.
• More conscription - apparently the written orders of what Putin and Shoigu announced had an item #7 that was considered "classified" and the Russian public were not allowed to know what it was, but it concerned the number of men being called up.

Basically, Putin may take Russia to a full-on wartime footing, albeit far too late.

[kevwun 15596]

Conscripting Ukrainians is going to work out really well for the Russians.  It's a great idea to arm people who hate you and then turn them loose behind your lines.

Edited September 28, 2022 by kevwun

[Fico 1743]

9 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

Yes, the Russians are using the same tactics, strategy, and logistics that they used during the Great Patriotic War.  Drafting a huge conscript army, sending it mal-equipped to defend fixed positions, from which the leadership dictates that they cannot retreat, using "blocking units" to enforce the no-retreat order--it's all straight out of the GPW playbook.

But why should it be any different?  Russia hasn't fought a significant conventional war since the Great Patriotic War.*

Contrast that with the United States Army.  The US Army has been engaged in a major conventional war pretty regularly from 1941 to the present day.  Korea; Vietnam, Iraq, Iraq again--since 1941, the US Army has never gone more than 15 years without being engaged in a significant conventional war.  

So that does two things.  First, it means that your senior officers/NCOs always have combat experience.  But beyond that, it gives the Pentagon a real-world test to develop new battle plans and see what works and what doesn't.

Russia doesn't have that.  Their most recent test of what works and what doesn't is the GPW.  But aside from being 80 years ago--and there have been a few technological developments in the last 80 years, this isn't the Great Patriotic War:

• Russia doesn't have nearly as large a population today as it did in 1941 (194M vs 144M).  So the available pool of conscripts is about one-quarter smaller;
• Ukraine isn't fighting a two-front war, with the Western Allies keeping 40% of its army engaged in places like North Africa, Italy, and France;
• Russia isn't getting supplies from the United States.   

The last one is the really big one that has been ignored by Soviet/Russia historiography.  The Soviet Union was only available to fight because of Lend-Lease supplies.  The Russians have long written about the T-34 as being the great achievement of Russian manufacturing/logistics that won the war (ignoring the enormous number of Patton and Sherman tanks that the Red Army used).  But the T-34 was built on an American chassis with American steel.  It ran on American diesel and fired American ammunition.  It was crewed by guys wearing American boots and eating Spam.

Russia supplied the meat for the grinder in the GPW, but it was a victory of American manufacturing and technology.

Their historiography/propaganda leaves off that second bit.  So now they're going to just feed meat into the grinder.  But without the manufacturing and technology, all you get is ground meat.  And that's what Russia is going to come away with.

 

 

 

*  No, I'm not counting Afghanistan or Chechnya.  Those were counter-insurgency operations.  And they're very different from a significant conventional war against a national army that can field armor and artillery.

But it does raise the observation that before the Russians broke out the GPW playbook, they were running the Afghanistan playbook.  That's what they expected--to quickly take over the capital, install a puppet regime, and then conduct a large counter-insurgency operation.  That's reflected by the fact that they were sending in VDV units on aluminum BMPs in the first wave.

And no, I'm also not county Georgia any more than I am counting Panama or Grenada.

A little early for Pattons but they did get Stuarts and Grants/Lees to compliment the Shermans.

Recommend the book Commanding the Red Army's Sherman Tanks: The World War II Memoirs of Hero of the Soviet Union Dmitriy Loza - it's a quick but interesting/fun read. Ironically one of the points he compliments the Sherman on is having lower ground pressure than T-34 or German tanks allowing them to surprise the Germans during Rasputitsa in Ukraine. 

[ABSR 5289]

10 hours ago, MagicSoccerSpray said:

 

He is GRU and probably has some protection.

 

 

 

 

Zeihan has stated the depth at that location is only 70 meters, a fishing boat with properly equipped divers could do it.

Perhaps the German were in secret negotiations to turn it back on, and the Baltics/Poland/Ukraine wanted to make sure that will never happen? They, and the French, are being such pieces of shit.

 

Deep diving is any dive past 60 feet/18 meters, with a limit for recreational scuba divers of 130 feet/40 meters.   So 70 meters is around 210 feet and would require either specially trained and equipped people or special submersibles.  This is not some simple feat.

[kevwun 15596]

The US also sent them a huge number of trucks for use as transports.

[Ghost of LL 15348]

2 minutes ago, Fico said:

A little early for Pattons but they did get Stuarts and Grants/Lees to compliment the Shermans.

Recommend the book Commanding the Red Army's Sherman Tanks: The World War II Memoirs of Hero of the Soviet Union Dmitriy Loza - it's a quick but interesting/fun read. Ironically one of the points he compliments the Sherman on is having lower ground pressure than T-34 or German tanks allowing them to surprise the Germans during Rasputitsa in Ukraine. 

Thank you--I obviously got that wrong.

The other thing that is under-appreciated was the number of British Valentines that were sent to the Soviets and were heavily used during the Battle of Moscow (before American or Soviet tank production really ramped up).  They were sent from British stocks on the promise that the United States would replace British tanks sent to the Soviet Union in 1942.

The Russians talk about the troops that were shifted from the Russian Far East to defend Moscow at the critical time, based on their intelligence that Japan would not invade the Soviet Union.*  But without those Valentines and Lees, those troops are just throwing snowballs at the Wehrmacht.

 

* The NKVD/KGB was always a top-notch spy agency.  That's one thing that the Russians really don't over-exaggerate.