Русский корабль - иди нахуй

[atomheartbevo 89,661]

7 minutes ago, statsman said:

Argument for Russia being culprit- punishes Germany this winter, unless Russia makes repairs (hoping that Germany exerts pressure in NATO to back off?), also Russia says repairs require sanctions on chips to be lifted. 
Energy is a commodity, and if the pipeline isn’t repaired, prices can spike, meaning more needed cash for Russia. 
Russia own the pipeline, so no increase in sanctions if they are found to be guilty. 
Arguments against Russia being the culprit: they are saying very loudly that they didn’t do it. (😂). Also, impedes commercial agreement between Russia and Germany. Finally, the op appears to be successful, which may be an argument against Russian special forces doing it. 

7 minutes ago, statsman said:

Arguments for the US doing it: Force Germany’s hand?

Nord Stream 2 was shut down in February, well it technically didn’t start.

Nord Stream 1 was shut down last month.

Nobody was getting gas through either one, so nobody was going to be hurt any more than they already were.

[Schulz2.0 28,951]

 

[Schulz2.0 28,951]

 

[Deej 76,783]

48 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

I told y’all that Putin wasn’t going to be changing his mind.

 

Ukraine just needs to say they annexed Russia. 

[atomheartbevo 89,661]

19 minutes ago, Deej said:

Ukraine just needs to say they annexed Russia. 

Going forward, does Ukraine join NATO, or does NATO join Ukraine?

[AUS-97HORN 11,758]

2 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Going forward, does Ukraine join NATO, or does NATO join Ukraine?

depends if Chuck Norris joins Ukraine or if Ukraine joins Chuck.

[Eskimohorn 5,635]

Anyone with American citizenship that is still in Russia at this point, we don’t want back. They are either too Russian or too stupid. Let them find out. 

People are ignorant in part because many parts of our media do not inform and are influenced greatly by amoral capitalists or ruthless totalitarian governments.

Britney Griner is a political prisoner, but any comments section and discussion forum (ahem) are dominated by posters who show her no sympathy and believe she deserves the punishment. She’s a political prisoner. There’s a rise in Americans being arrested around the world to be used as leverage by totalitarian governments. They’ll contrive offenses if they have to and step up surveillance.

As a pro athlete in Russia, I’m guessing she was made certain promises about her security and had expectations that she would not be targeted. That she didnt put 2 and 2 together in time and take extra precautions after the invasion of Ukraine is tragic.

[AUS-97HORN 11,758]

5 minutes ago, Eskimohorn said:

As a pro athlete in Russia, I’m guessing she was made certain promises about her security and had expectations that she would not be targeted. That she didnt put 2 and 2 together in time and take extra precautions after the invasion of Ukraine is tragic.

while i agree with most of your post, the last line is completely wrong.   Britney was arrested a full week before the attack.

 

She was putin a vulnerable position right before a major world economic event.   She still bears some responsibility, but in normal times she would have had only had to deal with this for a few days... since Vlady knew he was about to attack he kept her as insurance

[Orange&White 5,528]

This was in one of the replies of one of those embedded tweets upthread:

 

 

[atomheartbevo 89,661]

 

 

[Schulz2.0 28,951]

 

[atomheartbevo 89,661]

@Schulz2.0 Belarus you say?

 

[SmokeyTheBear 5,562]

SIAP

Loving this guys perspective and how he translates complex geopolitical events in easily digestable ways. It's a longer video than we are used to but provides a shit load of context to what we are seeing. 

 

 

[Txzen 498]

23 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

 

In US, you patrol the border. In Russia, border patrols you.

[SydneyCarton 48,100]

11 minutes ago, SmokeyTheBear said:

SIAP

Loving this guys perspective and how he translates complex geopolitical events in easily digestable ways. It's a longer video than we are used to but provides a shit load of context to what we are seeing. 

 

 

Counterpoint, he often makes a lot of sense, but how much can we really trust a guy who would not only buy that tie, but wear that tie, and wear that tie to some kind of conference where he was a keynote speaker?

[CHIEF 5,086]

8 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

Counterpoint, he often makes a lot of sense, but how much can we really trust a guy who would not only buy that tie, but wear that tie, and wear that tie to some kind of conference where he was a keynote speaker?

You just know he has those rainbow colored suspenders under that jacket.

CHIEF

[Schulz2.0 28,951]

9 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

Counterpoint, he often makes a lot of sense, but how much can we really trust a guy who would not only buy that tie, but wear that tie, and wear that tie to some kind of conference where he was a keynote speaker?

But you're a big fan of his 80s bad guy hair/beard combo?

[SydneyCarton 48,100]

2 minutes ago, Schulz2.0 said:

But you're a big fan of his 80s bad guy hair/beard combo?

In these days of the resurgence Porn Stache, sir, I mostly bypass facial hair decision. Although I contend there are ways to still groom yourself acceptably for the occasion. There's no putting lipstick on that pig of a tie. In fact, lipstick might improve it. 

[atomheartbevo 89,661]

@Brisketexan you might appreciate this  “Putin always chooses escalation”

 

[Chad Fuck 17,680]

 
 

Speaking of, all our Pacific rim ambassadors ought to be making special trips to all those nations playing footsie with the Chinese (Solomons, Papúa New Guinea, etc.) and pointing to the Ukraine saying, “this is what China’s buddy is doing. You want to be friends with China or us?”

[Laxtonto 12,080]

1 hour ago, atomheartbevo said:

@Schulz2.0 Belarus you say?

 

This is feeling more and more like the last 3 weeks has been a full-court press of boogeymen to try and get the Ukraine to the table to make a deal. The offensive in Kharkiv/Oskil river region has demonstrated the absolute combat ineffectiveness of the RU in that region and the continued loss of territory is extremely dangerous from an internal political standpoint for Putin.

To try and combat this Russia holds referendums to justify the annexation and to create the new "border" in negotiations.

Then Putin mobilizes masses of troops to "storm the front" to show the image of being a military threat

"Someone" (cough cough Russia) blows up NS 1 and 2 to help create instability in the energy market in Europe

Putin is now  stripping all the other borders to put "real troops" in as reinforcements at the front

The RU is placing additional troops and new air units (all 3 of them) in Belarus to show the shadow of a new front opening near Kiev.

 

None of these actions right now are any threat to what is currently happening in the operating theater and none of this changes the fact that Russia is in a bad spot from a supply standpoint and is limited in how those supplies can be transported to the front. All these things do is provide doubt that can be leveraged to get the Ukrainians to the table.

 

Why would I think  Putin would want an off-ramp from this idiotic war now? 5 weeks ago there were 3 routes to resupply the fronts (through Belgorod, over the Kerch bridge, and the main corridor (N from Rostov to Liski). 3 weeks ago, that went down to 2 routes with the main N/S route being 240 km from the front. Now today, that number is down to 180 km. If the Ukrainians can get to the N/S axis in line with Staroblisk, that puts the main rail artery at 80 km. The argument whether the UKA can't fire into Russia with Western weaponry due to it escalating the war sounds impressive, but one massive HIMARS strike to in essence cripple the RU supply lines, which would be in an unpopulated area (that is where the various N/S bridges tend to be) makes it much more difficult to argue it is an escalation or an international incident.  Losing ground is an issue, but more of losing ground as we move into winter is a much bigger problem for Russia. If the UKA can cripple the N/S main rail line out of Russia to Rostov before winter, there is not enough available throughput over the Kerch bridge to heat, feed, water, resupply, and support the entire front and Crimea.

 

 

 

Edited September 29, 2022 by Laxtonto

[The Dog 44,045]

 

[CHIEF 5,086]

21 minutes ago, Laxtonto said:

This is feeling more and more like the last 3 weeks has been a full-court press of boogeymen to try and get the Ukraine to the table to make a deal. The offensive in Kharkiv/Oskil river region has demonstrated the absolute combat ineffectiveness of the RU in that region and the continued loss of territory is extremely dangerous from an internal political standpoint for Putin.

To try and combat this Russia holds referendums to justify the annexation and to create the new "border" in negotiations.

Then Putin mobilizes masses of troops to "storm the front" to show the image of being a military threat

"Someone" (cough cough Russia) blows up NS 1 and 2 to help create instability in the energy market in Europe

Putin is now  stripping all the other borders to put "real troops" in as reinforcements at the front

The RU is placing additional troops and new air units (all 3 of them) in Belarus to show the shadow of a new front opening near Kiev.

 

None of these actions right now are any threat to what is currently happening in the operating theater and none of this changes the fact that Russia is in a bad spot from a supply standpoint and is limited in how those supplies can be transported to the front. All these things do is provide doubt that can be leveraged to get the Ukrainians to the table.

 

 

Belarus needs to be told if they keep it up, that they are going to have the same sanctions placed on them as Russia.  I don't think Lukashenko could hold onto power, the Belarusian people, and possibly the military might revolt, and possibly side with Ukraine to kick the bear while it is down. It would be a chance for Belarus to kick out the puppet regime, and come to the EU with hat in hand. They have clearly hitched their cart to the wrong horse. If Putin looses power, Russia will probably fracture into smaller nations, Georgia and all the "stans" are gonna want autonomy. Belarus could have it as well.

CHIEF

[The Dog 44,045]

 

[texastough 1,129]

8 minutes ago, CHIEF said:

Belarus needs to be told if they keep it up, that they are going to have the same sanctions placed on them as Russia.  I don't think Lukashenko could hold onto power, the Belarusian people, and possibly the military might revolt, and possibly side with Ukraine to kick the bear while it is down. It would be a chance for Belarus to kick out the puppet regime, and come to the EU with hat in hand. They have clearly hitched their cart to the wrong horse. If Putin looses power, Russia will probably fracture into smaller nations, Georgia and all the "stans" are gonna want autonomy. Belarus could have it as well.

CHIEF

Belarus has already been sanctioned pretty significantly. I'm sure not to the same extent as Russia, but for instance all the trade sanctions apply equally to Belarus because everyone knows that otherwise, all the microchips and other shit Russia needs would just flow through Belarus to Russia.

[956 Worldwide 34,714]

5 minutes ago, texastough said:

Belarus has already been sanctioned pretty significantly. I'm sure not to the same extent as Russia, but for instance all the trade sanctions apply equally to Belarus because everyone knows that otherwise, all the microchips and other shit Russia needs would just flow through Belarus to Russia.

Belarus is sanctioned up to the ears and was about where Russia is now even before the war. Low-cost target and a serial human rights abuser, they are if anything more isolated and what’s more—never attracted Western interest to begin with. 

[Laxtonto 12,080]

16 minutes ago, CHIEF said:

Belarus needs to be told if they keep it up, that they are going to have the same sanctions placed on them as Russia.  I don't think Lukashenko could hold onto power, the Belarusian people, and possibly the military might revolt, and possibly side with Ukraine to kick the bear while it is down. It would be a chance for Belarus to kick out the puppet regime, and come to the EU with hat in hand. They have clearly hitched their cart to the wrong horse. If Putin looses power, Russia will probably fracture into smaller nations, Georgia and all the "stans" are gonna want autonomy. Belarus could have it as well.

CHIEF

I think the 20k troops aren't really there to invade Ukraine. I think they are being put there as conscripts to pull the other troops already stationed there to the Donetsk/Luhansk front so Belarus doesn't fold. Putin (or more likely someone on his staff) realizes they need real troops, not half-assed conscripts, to help hold the line till winter and so they are stripping troops from where ever they can (borders and the various protectorate states) and replacing them with conscripts.  But the transition time makes it look like a buildup, which in effect forces the UKA to make sure they have sufficient blocking forces west of Kiev as well as an added bonus.

If not, they are in essence planning on trying to open up a new front with green conscripts and all it would do is put Belarus at risk of an overthrow if that group gets smashed. The real question is there are enough other troops in western Ukraine to pivot over as a blocking force early and if Belarus engages in the war what does that mean as far what the UKA is allowed to do as far as advancing into Belarus. Any form of incursion into Belrus would make Lukashenko in serious threat of a revolt.

[Pato del Muerto 52,497]

36 minutes ago, The Dog said:

 

[956 Worldwide 34,714]

The U.S. is playing Sugar Daddy in Central Europe today. Message: take care of Ukraine and we take care of you. 
 

 

[jdhorn92 1,549]

31 minutes ago, CHIEF said:

Belarus needs to be told if they keep it up, that they are going to have the same sanctions placed on them as Russia.  I don't think Lukashenko could hold onto power, the Belarusian people, and possibly the military might revolt, and possibly side with Ukraine to kick the bear while it is down. It would be a chance for Belarus to kick out the puppet regime, and come to the EU with hat in hand. They have clearly hitched their cart to the wrong horse. If Putin looses power, Russia will probably fracture into smaller nations, Georgia and all the "stans" are gonna want autonomy. Belarus could have it as well.

CHIEF

From your keyboard to God's ears.  This would put China on a political Island, with no true super-power ally. RU broken up to a dozen separate Republics would be a geo-political realignment not seen in generations.  Latvia, Lithuania, Slovenia all seem to be doing fairly well.  Without RU backing commy regimes, we could end up with several Ukraines all wanting to align with the EU/West

[Pato del Muerto 52,497]

I’m cool with breaking russia into 5 or so republics, as long as we can divvy up their nuclear arsenal evenly and have them only pointed at each other. 

[Pig Bellmont 8,718]

1 hour ago, Laxtonto said:

The argument whether the UKA can't fire into Russia with Western weaponry due to it escalating the war

This idea is insane to me. Russia brought war to Ukraine, destroyed cities, tortured/raped/mass murdered civilians, stole thousands of children, on and on but somehow there’s some line of escalation everyone agrees will be crossed if Ukraine attacks on Russian soil? Fuck that. Don’t want no shit, don’t start no shit. 

[texastough 1,129]

1 minute ago, Pato del Muerto said:

I’m cool with breaking russia into 5 or so republics, as long as we can divvy up their nuclear arsenal evenly and have them only pointed at each other. 

In all seriousness, I think this all ends with Russia de-nuked. Putin goes down, breakaway republics/regions gain independence, the west only removes sanctions after denuclearization, and post-Putin leadership has no choice but to agree.

[CHIEF 5,086]

1 hour ago, Pato del Muerto said:

I’m cool with breaking russia into 5 or so republics, as long as we can divvy up their nuclear arsenal evenly and have them only pointed at each other. 

With what the sanctions have done, I would offer cash rewards to commanders and crews of Russia's nuclear arsenal. Tell us where you are located, we will send someone to come pick up your nuke. You can move to any country you want. Monaco? Sure. Go pick out your villa.

CHIEF

Edited September 29, 2022 by CHIEF
Monaco

[Rimbo 25,931]

4 hours ago, immamac said:

This is a joke right? Its not even a question that it was Russia, like wtf? 

It's nice to have the thoughts lined up like this, though.

[Rimbo 25,931]

3 hours ago, AUS-97HORN said:

She was putin a vulnerable position

now that's a Freudian typo

[Schulz2.0 28,951]

 

[TexasEd 8,067]

5 hours ago, immamac said:

This is a joke right? Its not even a question that it was Russia, like wtf? 

Lol. Not according to America’s #1 News source. Tucker and Laura Ingraham are full bore on the “USA blew up the pipeline”  Russian talking points. I flipped to FN last night for 2 minutes and Ingraham was guffawing as she said it was ridiculous to assert that Russia did this. The only thing that made sense was that we did it. Just read a GR Horn post and you’ll get the full dump. 

Edited September 29, 2022 by TexasEd

[Schulz2.0 28,951]

 

[Catpfish 618]

14 hours ago, TexasEd said:

 

 

 

The Illinois Nazis are being mobilized?

 

 

[Mantis Toboggan, MD 1,501]

In all seriousness, I think this all ends with Russia de-nuked. Putin goes down, breakaway republics/regions gain independence, the west only removes sanctions after denuclearization, and post-Putin leadership has no choice but to agree.

I’ll have some of what you are smoking

[Schulz2.0 28,951]

 

[Pescado_Rojo 19,416]

1 hour ago, CHIEF said:

Belarus needs to be told if they keep it up, that they are going to have the same sanctions placed on them as Russia.  I don't think Lukashenko could hold onto power, the Belarusian people, and possibly the military might revolt, and possibly side with Ukraine to kick the bear while it is down. It would be a chance for Belarus to kick out the puppet regime, and come to the EU with hat in hand. They have clearly hitched their cart to the wrong horse. If Putin looses power, Russia will probably fracture into smaller nations, Georgia and all the "stans" are gonna want autonomy. Belarus could have it as well.

CHIEF

I'd tell Belarus if they keep it up, we take the muzzle off Poland. The Poles would be in Minsk in 48 hrs. 

[27-25 2,047]

 

[Ghost of LL 15,531]

2 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

@Brisketexan you might appreciate this  “Putin always chooses escalation”

 

Everybody talks about Putin's escalation, but nobody spares a thought for ours.

We have been casually escalating this thing from the outset.  Go back a few hundred pages on this thread, and you'll see handwringing about us sending javelins and imposing modest sanctions.  We've gone from javelins to HIMARS, and we're seriously talking about the United States and our allies supplying main battle tanks and ATACMS.  We've gone from imposing targeted sanctions on a few people to cutting Russia off SWIFT and capping the price of Russian oil, and we're seriously talking about designating Russia state-sponsor of terrorism.

What all this shows is that the United States, having put down its penny, is in for a pound.  We're not going to allow Ukraine to fall (or even not return to its pre-February 24 borders, at the very least).  I have absolutely no doubt that if there were a new Russian offensive from Belarus that threatened to take Kyiv, there would be direct NATO intervention.  And that was unthinkable on February 24.

But look at where we are on the escalation road: Russia has very little more it can do to escalate its war against Ukraine.  It can do things that it may think will make its current efforts more effective (e.g., wartime mobilization of the economy and martial law).  But that doesn't escalate the situation vis-a-vis Ukraine or NATO.  The only real thing Russia can do to escalate is use nuclear weapons.

NATO, in contrast, has a lot of ways in which it can dial up the pressure.  It can name Russia a state-sponsor of terrorism.  It can impose secondary sanctions and completely destroy the Russian economy.  It can give Ukraine weapons that will allow it to strike targets inside Russia.  It can aid Georgia and Moldova and Japan in retaking disputed territory and further put pressure on an overstretched Russia military.  It can hire contractors to aid the Ukrainian military and outfit those contractors with American weapons and equipment.  It can conduct airstrikes directly.  It can send ground forces to defend Ukraine.  It can destroy Russian space-based communications and the internet.  It can even seize Russian territory (e.g., Kalinningrad).

It can do all these things before it even thinks about using nuclear weapons.

That gives NATO an enormous strategic advantage.  We can hurt Russia in a lot of ways; Russia can't answer.

Russia has already lost this war.  Maybe Putin doesn't know that yet; maybe he does.  But Russia does not have a viable path to victory at this point.

[BrickHorn 18,232]

22 minutes ago, Pescado_Rojo said:

The Poles would be in Minsk in 48 hrs. 

You just described the third act of Rochelle, Rochelle.

[Brisketexan 105,134]

[mention=593]Brisketexan[/mention] you might appreciate this  “Putin always chooses escalation”
 

Yep. He’s at the table and down $10k. He can’t go home down that much, so he has only once choice: continue to bet more, and bet big, hoping to win it back. But…he sucks at poker. So, that’s a problem. The outcome is only going to be him losing even more.

[The Dog 44,045]

 

[SquishMitten 10,406]

19 hours ago, Kwix said:

That translation can't be legit. Holy shit!

Based on the account it was posted from name "Real Subtitles?", I'm pretty confident it's fake.

[The Dog 44,045]