Русский корабль - иди нахуй

[tx 3 putt 76159]

 

[texasdago 7550]

11 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

Just asking questions...

Do your own research

[Laxtonto 11926]

38 minutes ago, Schulz2.0 said:

 

Anyone notice what is wrong with this Russian map?

The RU is still holding ground over the Oskil river? They are holding territory south of the split of the Oskil river? There are no UKA troops over the Oski? So that 99% is closer to 90 or so and falling with the encirclement in Lyman. The other 3 are fairly accurate with the front lines being rather static around natural barriers.

Until Kherson falls or until the UKA can get into a position to start targeting the main supply lines by continuing to advance in the north, there will most likely be not a lot of changes in that map.

[NeverMarryAStripper 21780]

I am becoming increasingly convinced that Putin has already decided to use nukes, and this speech was him creating justification (even if the justification is reasonable only in what little remains of his mind).  I can't see any response that the US could reasonably make that wouldn't involve a direct attack on Russian forces and/or territory (real Russian territory, not Putin's fake Russian territory).  In that case, I believe Putin would escalate to the use of strategic nuclear weapons and we are seeing the beginning of the end unless there are people in the Russian military who are willing to take him out, or at least disobey his orders.  I'm a little sad that I won't get to see my grandson grow up and my younger kids mature into adults, but the world they would inherit would probably be a pretty shitty place anyway.  I guess I'm just going to uncork a nice bottle of wine and watch the world implode.

[Rimbo 25752]

24 minutes ago, MagicSoccerSpray said:

 

Negotiations require two parties operating in good faith

 

[InkaUtexas 25426]

Damn allergies. 

 

[Hook1997 5269]

37 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

So hear me out, why doesn’t Ukraine just surrender? 

No but giving that land up that Putin will never stop fight for anyway seems better then all out war between NATO and Russia.  Draw the line in the sand there add all of the old Russian bloc that wants to NATO, make it clear if it’s crossed then we react accordingly and we get the end result we are possibly heading towards anyway.   That gives him no more aggression options or he know what will happen. I know he probably wouldn’t accept it anyway but seems worth an attempt atleast. In reality someone needs to take him out asap. I have never been for them giving up any land before but I don’t see a end to this without some form of negotiations, War with Russia or Putin’s death. 

[tokamak 6350]

1 hour ago, Viper said:

Anyone know what boarders Russia is claiming? The whole of the Ukrainian states or just the areas they currently have control over? 

Surf, wake, snow, skate...you name it.

[Trey3216 15325]

2 hours ago, KYHorn said:

Video below is grainy but allegedly depicts pigs consuming the corpse of a Russian captain.

https://t.me/gruz_200_rus/3798 

Did it take "about 8 minutes?"  

[atomheartbevo 89362]

7 minutes ago, NeverMarryAStripper said:

I am becoming increasingly convinced that Putin has already decided to use nukes,

A good argument could be made that he won’t use nukes because he resorted to the mobilization (his mouthpieces threatened nukes on their TV shows, the West laughed, so he was forced to mobilize).   And as mentioned, this is not the 1980s and there’s not a mass of troops and tanks bearing down on a Fulda Gap-style bottleneck in Ukraine. 

[atomheartbevo 89362]

An actual solid Hitler joke is always appreciated. 

[cactusflinthead 27593]

2 hours ago, KYHorn said:

Video below is grainy but allegedly depicts pigs consuming the corpse of a Russian captain.

https://t.me/gruz_200_rus/3798 

Said the other day it was a matter of time before the hogs found them. Ants take what the hogs won't. 

[956 Worldwide 34314]

13 minutes ago, Hook1997 said:

No but giving that land up that Putin will never stop fight for anyway seems better then all out war between NATO and Russia.  Draw the line in the sand there add all of the old Russian bloc that wants to NATO, make it clear if it’s crossed then we react accordingly and we get the end result we are possibly heading towards anyway.   That gives him no more aggression options or he know what will happen. I know he probably wouldn’t accept it anyway but seems worth an attempt atleast. In reality someone needs to take him out asap. I have never been for them giving up any land before but I don’t see a end to this without some form of negotiations, War with Russia or Putin’s death. 

So let me spell this out clearly.  First, in the absence of nuclear weapons Putin doesn’t get a choice whether to stop fighting for that land, on the battlefield it’s looking more and more likely that he’d actually lose it.  Second, he’s claiming now that he’s taken territory that he doesn’t even control at the moment, that is fully under Ukrainian control.  So he’s reached into his pocket and placed the split atom on the table— telling Ukraine to get out, give him what he wants.  
 

The precedent here is for every shitty ass authoritarian regime to go get nuclear weapons and then not even try to win a war. Just be shitty enough to make people believe you’ll use them.  That’s not a world Ukrainians or I want to live in. 

 

 

Edited September 30, 2022 by 956 Worldwide

[SmokeyTheBear 5562]

49 minutes ago, The Dog said:

 

We're going to need more sunflower seeds

[Bateshorn 9882]

41 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

Richard, where you watching Spank-travision?

[tx 3 putt 76159]

58 minutes ago, The Dog said:

 

[CHIEF 5057]

58 minutes ago, The Dog said:

 

Those are some big ass shotgun shells.

CHIEF

[tx 3 putt 76159]

 

[Hook1997 5269]

17 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

So let me spell this out clearly.  First, in the absence of nuclear weapons Putin doesn’t get a choice whether to stop fighting for that land, on the battlefield it’s looking more and more likely that he’d actually lose it.  Second, he’s claiming now that he’s taken territory that he doesn’t even control at the moment, that is fully under Ukrainian control.  So he’s reached into his pocket and placed the split atom on the table— telling Ukraine to get out, give him what he wants.  
 

The precedent here is for every shitty ass authoritarian regime to go get nuclear weapons and then not even try to win a war. Just be shitty enough to make people believe you’ll use them.  That’s not a world Ukrainians or I want to live in. 

 

 

I get it, just looking for options where this doesn’t end really bad.  So basically Putin dead is the only option for that and not negotiating at all.  

[elfenix 34168]

3 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

 

Ukrainians need to destroy the equipment and make them leave on foot.  
 

 

grand theft battlefield 2022

[Schulz2.0 28752]

2 minutes ago, Hook1997 said:

I get it, just looking for options where this doesn’t end really bad.  So basically Putin dead is the only option for that and not negotiating at all.  

Putin dying or getting replaced in a coup doesn't mean nutty, aggressive Russia isn't still nutty, aggressive Russia.

[Trey3216 15325]

4 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

 

Ukrainian Bob Dylan for the background music this time. I can dig  

[Schulz2.0 28752]

11 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

In the spirit of the last 2 pages, I've been thinking:

[Saint Austin 743]

6 minutes ago, Schulz2.0 said:

Putin dying or getting replaced in a coup doesn't mean nutty, aggressive Russia isn't still nutty, aggressive Russia.

No, but it's a good start

[The Dog 43771]

 

[The Dog 43771]

lol

[Pato del Muerto 52321]

Rare?  Someone never had a 2600  

 

 

Edited September 30, 2022 by Pato del Muerto

[morehornsepower 865]

41 minutes ago, Hook1997 said:

No but giving that land up that Putin will never stop fight for anyway seems better then all out war between NATO and Russia.  Draw the line in the sand there add all of the old Russian bloc that wants to NATO, make it clear if it’s crossed then we react accordingly and we get the end result we are possibly heading towards anyway.   That gives him no more aggression options or he know what will happen. I know he probably wouldn’t accept it anyway but seems worth an attempt atleast. In reality someone needs to take him out asap. I have never been for them giving up any land before but I don’t see a end to this without some form of negotiations, War with Russia or Putin’s death. 

The problem is, everything you are suggesting essentially happened after Russia annexed Crimea in 2014.  Everyone said, 'let him have it', 'it isn't worth fighting over'.  A few brave souls pointed out that appeasement rarely works.  And now we have Russia attempting to grab more pieces of the same neighbor, sovereign state.  I don't think we need any more data points to know how Russia will act going forward.  In fact, this time, they've plainly said they feel they have a right to even more land that doesn't belong to them, even past the borders of Ukraine.

If there is war with Russia, it will only happen because Russia forced it.  They continue to blatantly ignore international law, and continue to dare anyone to try to stop them.  FAFO.  Fuck Putin.

[Schulz2.0 28752]

 

[Laxtonto 11926]

So I decided as a thought exercise to try and figure out how I would war game this map against a UKA advance to try and mentally walk through how I think this might play out.

The white line is what was under the RU control as of mid-September.  The red line is what I would expect to see the current front collapsing down to after Lyman falls here in the next week or less. Orange should be viewed as the drive towards Staroblisk and the RU falling back to the Borova River bank. Blue would be what happens after the UKA breaches the line around Mistky and as the RU troops fall back to an axis N from Staroblisk up the Aidar river or worst case purple east along the highway to Bilovodsk. That highway is a direct  E/W feeder from the main rail artery in Russia and the easiest way to directly bring in troops to the region.

If the blue line falls, I would guess the purple line falls apart quickly and the front stabilizes around the orange line.

 

Few things I learned from this.

1. Things could fall apart quickly from red to orange to blue because there isn't a ton of ways to slow down the UKA advance. A large chunk of the available forces in the region look to be in Lyman and beyond pulling troops from the south or from the major key points, which they cant really do (Sievierodonetsk has to hold because it puts both the main front at Dontesk and then Luhansk both at risk) there is not a ton of troops to provide resistance.

2. I am not entirely sure how to game the Russian border as UKA troops would advance further east, because it would become easier for the RU to actually provide a potential blocking force closer to the main rail artery and larger Russian population centers.

3. It is interesting how easily the map breaks down into 30 km or so hops between the natural barriers. That should imply that if the RU is prepreparing defensive positions and artillery battery locations/ammo dumps the UKA should already know where these most likely will be and plan accordingly.

4. I don't really see how the current setup for the RU forces can really protect Staroblisk without pressure from the Russian border or some sort of counteroffensive out of Sievierodonetsk to pull troops away from the north. The quick collapse of both Kupiansk and Izium looks to have severely compromised the RU defensive battle plan. By rolling up those positions allowed the UKA to now pressure Lyman (and now encircle it) while forcing the troops in the north to have to stay as a blocking force instead of being able to reinforce Lyman.

 

It was a fun exercise and I would suggest those interested to really start looking at the natural barriers and population centers to try to view things as fallback locations and defensive positions instead of straight lines on a map.

[MillerEP 30339]

 

[MillerEP 30339]

 

[MillerEP 30339]

 

[Rimbo 25752]

32 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Rare?  Someone never had a 2600  

 

 

Or quarters at the arcade.

[Shaddie 1634]

57 minutes ago, CHIEF said:

Those are some big ass shotgun shells.

CHIEF

Should see the goose gun that shoots it. 

[Pato del Muerto 52321]

1 minute ago, Shaddie said:

Should see the goose gun that shoots it. 

No more than 3 pods in the launcher, or the game warden will fine you. 

[MillerEP 30339]

 

[tokamak 6350]

This annexation thing seems real, real bad to me. Not only can Russia not "give them back", but their line is going to shift to "Ukraine is literally attacking Russian territory with Western weapons and Western encouragement".

[MillerEP 30339]

 

[Ghost of LL 15348]

1 hour ago, NeverMarryAStripper said:

I am becoming increasingly convinced that Putin has already decided to use nukes, and this speech was him creating justification (even if the justification is reasonable only in what little remains of his mind).  I can't see any response that the US could reasonably make that wouldn't involve a direct attack on Russian forces and/or territory (real Russian territory, not Putin's fake Russian territory).  In that case, I believe Putin would escalate to the use of strategic nuclear weapons and we are seeing the beginning of the end unless there are people in the Russian military who are willing to take him out, or at least disobey his orders.  I'm a little sad that I won't get to see my grandson grow up and my younger kids mature into adults, but the world they would inherit would probably be a pretty shitty place anyway.  I guess I'm just going to uncork a nice bottle of wine and watch the world implode.

On what basis do you think that Russia could actually mount a strategic nuclear strike at this point?

The maintenance and physical condition of the Russian nuclear missile force is obviously questionable, based on what we've seen from Russia's conventional forces.  I think it's probably likely that the nuclear forces are maintained better than the conventional forces.  But is that a fair assumption?  After all, isn't the most high-dollar stuff that would be rife for corruption committed to the nuclear forces?  And of all things, isn't that what a grifter would think "this will never be used, so what's the harm if I steal it?"

The quality of the missile-force personnel is also a question.  We've seen shoulder patches from the missile forces in Ukraine, which indicates that Russia is using missileers as . . . and I can't believe this, but apparently it's true . . . fucking infantry in Ukraine.  Does that imply that there are silos in Siberia that are un-/under-manned?

But more than either of those things, we're not going to let them.  From last December, we've known everything Putin was going to do before his own military commanders do. We knew long before Russia's military commanders that Russia was going to invade Ukraine.  We knew beforehand that Russia was going to do these referenda.  And we even knew the date on which Russia was going to "annex" these territories.

Based on all that, I suspect that we would know if Putin decided to launch a strategic nuclear strike even before the order to launch made its way down to the missile forces.

And if that is the case, that would give us an opportunity to launch a counterforce strike.  And let's be real clear about something--our strategic nuclear forces are in real good shape.  And we are very capable of launching an effective counterforce strike against Russia.  We obviously wouldn't get all of their missiles.  But we'd probably take out well more than 75% of their strategic nuclear force, while we retain 75% of ours as a remaining deterrent.  

And if Putin doesn't know all that at this point, then he's far dumber than I think.

[MillerEP 30339]

2 minutes ago, tokamak said:

This annexation thing seems real, real bad to me. Not only can Russia not "give them back", but their line is going to shift to "Ukraine is literally attacking Russian territory with Western weapons and Western encouragement".

That is literally the only reason why they did it, they told us as much. In practice, Ukraine might win it all back, but unless russia undergoes some serious cultural reforms all this will do is setup the next war, where they start whipping their people up again saying they have to reclaim the land.

[MillerEP 30339]

 

[The Dog 43771]

The nuclear saber rattling is disconcerting but IMHO the "annexation" was more for domestic consumption so that people will accept mobilization. It changes the narrative internally from "we're attacking Ukraine to stop Nazis" to "we're defending our territory from an aggressor". And yes, many will buy it as that's what the propagandists will say. It's a big change in the story but it's how Putin rolls. 

None of that changes the situation on the ground in Ukraine nor does it change what is about to occur once Lend-Lease kicks off tomorrow. The mobilization isn't going to work and Russia is running out of modern weapons. 

[MillerEP 30339]

 

[Shaddie 1634]

13 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

No more than 3 pods in the launcher, or the game warden will fine you. 

What’s the limit on “geese”

[GabrielsHorn 2142]

10 minutes ago, tokamak said:

This annexation thing seems real, real bad to me. Not only can Russia not "give them back", but their line is going to shift to "Ukraine is literally attacking Russian territory with Western weapons and Western encouragement".

Ukraine has already hit assets in Crimea with western weapons. 

[MillerEP 30339]

 

[Pato del Muerto 52321]

1 minute ago, Shaddie said:

What’s the limit on “geese”

They’re considered feral and invasive. No limit.  

[MillerEP 30339]

 

[Schulz2.0 28752]

3 minutes ago, Shaddie said:

What’s the limit on “geese”

No bag limits.