Русский корабль - иди нахуй

[grazinhorn 472]

5 hours ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

the one upthread showed a drop at :22 and impact at :27, so a little 9.8m/s^2  / 32.2 m/s^2 says --

delta x = 1/2 a t^2 = 400 feet

 

Obligatory

[atomheartbevo 89547]

Indian news agency, so maybe leaning a little Russian, but interesting

 

[NorthLoop 14147]

13 minutes ago, RDCanecutter said:

angry chipmunks redid the for-loops and if-then statements of, I dunno, slurred Welsh rugby players trying to order pizza in a French cafe, with some Turkish waiter vowel-harmonizing in the background.

Man I just had some crazy flashbacks to my acid/shrooms/xtacy days back in the early 2000's. You sure you haven't downloaded any of my dreams from back then? 

[RDCanecutter 26351]

1 minute ago, NorthLoop said:

Man I just had some crazy flashbacks to my acid/shrooms/xtacy days back in the early 2000's. You sure you haven't downloaded any of my dreams from back then? 

I just spent two days in a row on jury duty watching young lawyers ape the mannerisms of ancient royal counselors, all so that they will be able to buy the exact same pair of nice brown shoes.

So I don't have any idea what I'm on about, maaaan.

[Steel Shank 9417]

52 minutes ago, Deej said:

I still love her. 

 

22 minutes ago, NorthLoop said:

You can have her. I'll take the redhead. 

All threads eventually gravitate to gash discussion.

[NorthLoop 14147]

1 minute ago, Steel Shank said:

 

All threads eventually gravitate to gash discussion.

tis what makes the world go round

[MillerEP 30394]

 

[atomheartbevo 89547]

So there's been bit of a news blackout among the Ukrainians over the past day or two, which explains a lack of information, helped by several releases of drone footage and Russian attacks which distracted everybody.  

If the past is any indicator in terms of when news blackouts went into effect, the offensive is underway in some form, and will kick into high gear within 48 hours, and explains those videos up above of the Russians saying they are evacuating Kherson and some other areas.

And it's been picked up by the media

 

[atomheartbevo 89547]

Holy shit, I was laughing - Roman has some Russian propaganda, and talks about past batshit crazy Russian propaganda (don't vote for Putin, the alternative will be to raise the age of conscription to 60, to make you house homosexuals, etc.).

Need to track down the previous video he showed.

Lots of NSFW stuff.  It covers the Russian propaganda video about flying to America, and how bad that is.

 

Edited October 19, 2022 by atomheartbevo

[atomheartbevo 89547]

 

[atomheartbevo 89547]

 

 

[atomheartbevo 89547]

If you want a simplistic primer with pretty graphics for relatives/friends who don’t understand what’s happening, this 15-minute video is for you.  Or them I mean.

 

[TexasEd 8066]

4 hours ago, MillerEP said:

 

 

On 9/28/2022 at 1:46 PM, TexasEd said:

Seriously, Russia could have easily crashed into the pipeline intentionally or unintentionally with a sub.

They could have also sent a PIG (I think that's the term) plug/scrubber/whatever those maintenance pod things are called through the pipes. (non-engineer here but I've heard of these things)

 

I called the Pig sabotage weeks ago.  

Edited October 19, 2022 by TexasEd

[TexasEd 8066]

1 hour ago, atomheartbevo said:

Holy shit, I was laughing - Roman has some Russian propaganda, and talks about past batshit crazy Russian propaganda (don't vote for Putin, the alternative will be to raise the age of conscription to 60, to make you house homosexuals, etc.).

Need to track down the previous video he showed.

Lots of NSFW stuff.  It covers the Russian propaganda video about flying to America, and how bad that is.

 

I recognize this playbook.

[tx 3 putt 76689]

Love it !

 

[956 Worldwide 34596]

2 hours ago, TexasEd said:

 

I called the Pig sabotage weeks ago.  

Gonna want to see some more formal confirmation on the inside the pipe thing. Absolutely believable but really do want to see more. If it was internal, then Russia wanted everyone to know it’s them. 

[956 Worldwide 34596]

4 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

So there's been bit of a news blackout among the Ukrainians over the past day or two, which explains a lack of information, helped by several releases of drone footage and Russian attacks which distracted everybody.  

If the past is any indicator in terms of when news blackouts went into effect, the offensive is underway in some form, and will kick into high gear within 48 hours, and explains those videos up above of the Russians saying they are evacuating Kherson and some other areas.

And it's been picked up by the media

 

Surovkin has been laying a bit of soft groundwork for the surrender of Kherson. The mandatory evacuation is a sign of that but also a sign of expected heavy fighting.  Russians are not doing this to be nice, they don’t want to deal with the problem of civilians.  He’s mentioned the possibility of “illegal weapons and tactics” from Ukraine’s side.  They may also be using civilians and a shield to cover a retreat across damaged infrastructure. 
 

There’s a lot to be concerned with here. 

[Schulz2.0 28899]

 

[MNLonghornFUKM 8815]

 

[wildcat09 29320]

12 hours ago, Rimbo said:

Lend Lease passed and started. The White House can send Ukraine anything they want to send. This is nonsense fear-mongering and the folks in this thread should know better than to fall for it.

Only through the end of fiscal year 2023, which ends September 30, 2023. Anything beyond that will require an extension from Congress.

[956 Worldwide 34596]

Putin has declared martial law in the occupied territories. Of course all of this is not so interesting or understandable until you see what happens, actually.  My bet is that he’s setting the stage for civilian atrocities and mass deportations. 

[956 Worldwide 34596]

13 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Putin could end it by pulling out and returning the civilians.  Of course, it would mean that he's probably going to lose power, and also he believes he's smarter than everybody else, and would never admit he made a mistake, so he's going to double down.

I see it as the opposite - the US (and NATO) has been steadily increasing aid based on the capabilities of Ukraine to support and efficiently (and safely) use what we give them.  We worked within the limitation of training their standing army with what they possessed and would have immediate access to, which was mostly Soviet-era equipment.

We also needed to know that if we shipped them an expensive weapons system, that they would use them properly (and not simply be dropping expensive rounds on open fields because somebody wasn't programming coordinates properly) and more importantly they wouldn't immediately lose it to the Russians (whether by capture or air or artillery strike).  We damned sure couldn't start dropping in F-16s if there was a chance that the Russians would immediately knock them out with missiles/air strikes, we needed to make sure that the Ukrainians could keep their own Air Force running.

In terms of your examples - Abrams and Bradleys and F-16s each require a hefty repair/maintenance/logistics chain that we've had in place for well over four decades - that's a shit-ton of institutional knowledge that is passed down from mechanic-to-mechanic, in training schools that have four decades worth of expensively-learned knowledge.  And that's before we talk about training people to use them.

Don't get me wrong, I would have liked it if we took Ukrainian pilots and started getting them up to speed on F-16s back in March, just in case, but NATO has enough Soviet aircraft for now that we can push into the Ukrainians, and then backfill those NATO nations with F-16s.  That would be easier for us to help supply and get up and running in a country where we can have boots on the ground looking over the shoulders of their mechanics and pilots, versus pushing them into Ukraine, where our personnel would not cross the border and couldn't do hands-on help.

We also can't just stand up Abrams, Bradley, and F-16 maintenance/logistics support infrastructure in Ukraine, where it was completely staffed by Ukrainians.  Abrams run on turbines, which would slow down Ukrainian mechanics used to the engines of Soviet equipment, and they share no parts with the Soviet T-series.  Our F-16s share no parts with Soviet aircraft, etc. and we would have to move a massive amount of spare parts and ammo into Ukraine as well, and those would be fixed locations, prone to attack by Russian air.  There's also a reason why we stockpile that equipment and weapons in Europe, the Pacific, and Middle East, because it's not easy to move that much gear that quickly, as good as our airlift and sealift are.

With that said, We have been steadily helping to build up a Ukrainian military that is poised to go on the offensive, up to and including the taking of Crimea.

We have been training tens of thousands of their soldiers, we have been providing extremely expensive and accurate artillery (both barrel and rocket), we are working with them on unmanned water-based vehicles that in theory could take out their ships/subs sitting at anchor.  We have been providing more and more anti-air defense (AGM-88s, etc.), and now that much of their cruise missile capacity has been eaten up, all the while we are boosting their anti-air defenses,  today NATO shifted their priority to countering drones as well.  These things are meant to help Ukraine proper in dealing with Russian air attacks, but also help the Ukrainian military focus on their offensives.

I'm not saying that our aid has been perfect, but there should be plenty of case studies written about this, because everything we have provided has been put to extremely good use, so whatever we are doing in terms of training and supplies is working.

And it's working well - Russia is having to resort to buying weapons from fucking Iran, bringing 60 year-old tanks out of retirement, and they are literally kidnapping random men off the streets to fill their ranks.

This is a good post, and I really love this board because of the deep practical knowledge and experience that you get and can’t find elsewhere.  Military reality plays a huge role in what we can and do get to Ukraine, but there is (as I said in my earlier post) a political reality as well. And that is trying to manage risk as we stare down Putin.  The most glaring example here is ATACMS, which Ukraine can absolutely use today but there is still hesitation on the political and signaling side. 
 

To add onto the F-16 point:  Getting a nation onto the F-16 platform is a process that takes over a year for just the training and setting up the logistics tail— and that’s for a country looking to air police in peacetime.  Fighters have a HUGE tail, we’re extremely nitpicky at who gets to crawl around our airplanes, and learning how to keep them flying takes at least as long as learning to actually whoosh around and blow shit up. And you’ve got to upgrade airbases. Find out how you’re going to get the parts there. And now you’re doing it in a place that’s fighting a war against a great power on its own territory. 
 

If we ever get to a point where we’re getting them on an F platform then I’d expect the announcement to come after the program has already started. 

[Trey3216 15326]

10 hours ago, NorthLoop said:

You can have her. I'll take the redhead. 

[RPM 26285]

 

[Laxtonto 12075]

8 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

 

 

That is a MAJOR deal. If they are doing that they are essentially conceding that the UKA will get over the damn and can therefore gain access to the canal feeding water to the rest of Crimea..

Kherson, the city, is the symbolic objective and will resonate in the hearts and minds of both the Russians and the Ukrainians. The damn and the canal are the real strategic value here, and if/when the UKA gets over the dam we are looking at an entirely new phase of the war.

What has kept RU going lately is that the front is fairly static and there are large sets of natural barriers. If they hop the river they need to shift the axis of the front and cover much more ground N/S (100 km approximately) without the prebuilt positions and now with the added fear that they can still get encircled or flanked now since their back is not to the river.

 

[atomheartbevo 89547]

1 minute ago, Laxtonto said:

What has kept RU going lately is that the front is fairly static and there are large sets of natural barriers. If they hop the river they need to shift the axis of the front and cover much more ground N/S (100 km approximately) without the prebuilt positions and now with the added fear that they can still get encircled or flanked now since their back is not to the river.

Speaking of hopping the water, they’ve completed a barge bridge of sorts.  Lots of speculation about why Ukraine is letting it stand, since it’s in range of Ukrainian artillery, but some of the potential reasons:

• let civilians escape to cut down on casualties
• let soldiers escape to cut down on resistance
• waiting for high-value equipment or personnel (Russian leaders) to be on it when they hit it.
• allow more Russian troops and equipment in and then cut it off and destroy or capture them (reducing the amount of soldiers and equipment available elsewhere, and the equipment can’t be replaced easily by Russia)
• some have even joked  that they want more Russian equipment to come in and then take the bridge out and capture the equipment, continuing Russia’s role as a Ukrainian arms supplier. 

 

[Pato del Muerto 52422]

I’m sure they are watching the flow of traffic very carefully

[Parliament 14177]

23 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Speaking of hopping the water, they’ve completed a barge bridge of sorts.  Lots of speculation about why Ukraine is letting it stand, since it’s in range of Ukrainian artillery, but some of the potential reasons:

• let civilians escape to cut down on casualties
• let soldiers escape to cut down on resistance
• waiting for high-value equipment or personnel (Russian leaders) to be on it when they hit it.
• allow more Russian troops and equipment in and then cut it off and destroy or capture them (reducing the amount of soldiers and equipment available elsewhere, and the equipment can’t be replaced easily by Russia)
• some have even joked  that they want more Russian equipment to come in and then take the bridge out and capture the equipment, continuing Russia’s role as a Ukrainian arms supplier. 

 

That all makes sense.  Another example of how patient the Ukrainians are.

[Brisketexan 104830]

5 hours ago, 956 Worldwide said:

If it was internal, then Russia wanted everyone to know it’s them. 

Or....and go with me here, I need you to follow along......they're a toxic stew of arrogance, stupidity, and incompetence.  They wanted to blow the pipeline and blame it on the west, but they can't pull off an operation to do it externally, deep in the Baltic, so they went with an easily traceable pig, because they are Russian.

[NotActuallyALonghorn 4968]

Should have left a foreign passport and a couple copies of Sims on the ocean floor.

[Bevo 13536]

8 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Or....and go with me here, I need you to follow along......they're a toxic stew of arrogance, stupidity, and incompetence. 

Can't tell if you are talking about Russia or the City of Austin.

[Rimbo 25901]

3 hours ago, wildcat09 said:

Only through the end of fiscal year 2023, which ends September 30, 2023. Anything beyond that will require an extension from Congress.

Yes. And that's a good, long time away. A lot can happen in a year.

Do you think Putin is still alive by then?

[The Dog 43900]

Melitopol here we come?

[TexasEd 8066]

4 minutes ago, Bevo said:

Can't tell if you are talking about Russia or the City of Austin.

Well, the pipes were for petroleum products not drinking water.  A key distinction.

 

[Pato del Muerto 52422]

7 minutes ago, Bevo said:

Can't tell if you are talking about Russia or the City of Austin.

[wildcat09 29320]

5 minutes ago, Rimbo said:

Yes. And that's a good, long time away. A lot can happen in a year.

Do you think Putin is still alive by then?

I hope not, but it's probably more likely than not that he still will be.

[Brisketexan 104830]

2 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:

I hope not, but it's probably more likely than not that he still will be.

Yeah, he will be plenty alive.

The sooner y'all realize that this is a much, much bigger war -- yes, it's a relatively low-intensity version of the WWIII that we were always concerned about -- the sooner you'll realize how this will go, and how it will end.

It ends when either Russia is completely defeated and in full collapse.....or when Russia's goal of the United States becoming so dysfunctional that it's only good at fighting internally between factions is achieved.  While Russia has taken many punches to the nuts, its goal remains in reach, with the eager assistance of a crapload of people right here in the USA, including many people in real positions of power.

TLDR; this ends when either Russia collapses, or the US collapses.  Both remain a possibility.

[Pato del Muerto 52422]

1 minute ago, Brisketexan said:

Yeah, he will be plenty alive.

The sooner y'all realize that this is a much, much bigger war -- yes, it's a relatively low-intensity version of the WWIII that we were always concerned about -- the sooner you'll realize how this will go, and how it will end.

It ends when either Russia is completely defeated and in full collapse.....or when Russia's goal of the United States becoming so dysfunctional that it's only good at fighting internally between factions is achieved.  While Russia has taken many punches to the nuts, its goal remains in reach, with the eager assistance of a crapload of people right here in the USA, including many people in real positions of power.

TLDR; this ends when either Russia collapses, or the US collapses.  Both remain a possibility.

Russia uses its nuclear arsenal before it allows itself to be completely defeated. It probably uses them at the first sign of having its land taken away, which may or may not be crimea. 

[Bevo 13536]

6 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Yeah, he will be plenty alive.

The sooner y'all realize that this is a much, much bigger war -- yes, it's a relatively low-intensity version of the WWIII that we were always concerned about -- the sooner you'll realize how this will go, and how it will end.

It ends when either Russia is completely defeated and in full collapse.....or when Russia's goal of the United States becoming so dysfunctional that it's only good at fighting internally between factions is achieved.  While Russia has taken many punches to the nuts, its goal remains in reach, with the eager assistance of a crapload of people right here in the USA, including many people in real positions of power.

TLDR; this ends when either Russia collapses, or the US collapses.  Both remain a possibility.

I think Russia is beginning to collapse. But, all the fighting age men are dead or gone. Still, though, Putin's days are numbered.

[Brisketexan 104830]

1 minute ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Russia uses its nuclear arsenal before it allows itself to be completely defeated. It probably uses them at the first sign of having its land taken away, which may or may not be crimea. 

And the West responds with stepped-up conventional measures (perhaps including direct strikes on Russian forces in Ukraine), and full-on sanctions, including secondary sanctions completely isolating Russia from everyone but North Korea (seriously, at that point, it's possible that even China and India say "fuck it, we're out").  And the war continues, getting even more dangerous.

Again, Putin has decided that now is when this happens: either Russia ends, or the US does.  And yes, that binary choice is as horrific as it sounds.  But here we are.  He chose today as the time, so we're in it.  Which one do you want to see left standing?  There's no option of "both, but peacefully, after a step-down in warfare and rhetoric."  It's not feasible.

[Pato del Muerto 52422]

3 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

And the West responds with stepped-up conventional measures (perhaps including direct strikes on Russian forces in Ukraine), and full-on sanctions, including secondary sanctions completely isolating Russia from everyone but North Korea (seriously, at that point, it's possible that even China and India say "fuck it, we're out").  And the war continues, getting even more dangerous.

Again, Putin has decided that now is when this happens: either Russia ends, or the US does.  And yes, that binary choice is as horrific as it sounds.  But here we are.  He chose today as the time, so we're in it.  Which one do you want to see left standing?  There's no option of "both, but peacefully, after a step-down in warfare and rhetoric."  It's not feasible.

Feels like both are headed in a bad direction, and fast. Putin’s actions were initially probably not try and curb some of their problems by absorbing people and natural resources, but it backfired on him, brown bringing about a worldwide conflict. 

[Brisketexan 104830]

1 minute ago, Bevo said:

I think Russia is beginning to collapse. But, all the fighting age men are dead or gone.

Russia will deploy old men.  It will deploy 12 year olds.  It will deploy Babushkas.  It will arm them with mosin nagants.  Russia doesn't care.  Life has no value to them.  Read the Estonian article from a couple of pages back.  Listen to the people who know them best.

We don't know what Russia's collapse really looks like because we've never actually seen it.  It's going to take more than the collapse of WWI.  It's going to take more than the end of the Cold War collapse.  Russia's tolerance for its own pain and suffering is beyond anything any civilized human being can or should conceive of.  

I once had hope that there was some force, some thinking, inside of Russia that was what Western minds would call a "rational actor."  Some mind that would see the destruction of and further risk to life, property, and prosperity, and say "enough of this shit."  My hope was misplaced.  Russia will grind its very last child to pink mist on the battlefield.  It will starve millions of its own, scrambling to find a single rotten potato in an abandoned field.  The Russian mind just doesn't care.  It will enjoy the good things if they are there -- caviar, mini giraffes, all that shit -- but it doesn't care if the people are eating dirt and dying by the millions, either.

Maybe the biggest question is whether we have the stomach to do to Russia what must be done to defeat Russia?

[MagicSoccerSpray 1732]

30 minutes ago, The Dog said:

Melitopol here we come?

 

No, they purposely might create a nuclear disaster at the power plant though.

[The Dog 43900]

I'm starting to think we end up in a place where Putin is just a warlord overseeing a country in complete ruin. 

Eventually Ukraine is going to eject all of the Russian forces from their territory (all of it - including Crimea and the Donbas). There isn't going to be much left to rule and there won't be anyone left to challenge him. 

And Putin will be just fine with that. He'll just change the subject and move on.

 

[RPM 26285]

 

[Brisketexan 104830]

7 minutes ago, The Dog said:

I'm starting to think we end up in a place where Putin is just a warlord overseeing a country in complete ruin. 

....with a giant-ass nuclear arsenal.  That's not sustainable.

I'm becoming more convinced than ever that this conflict eventually goes nuclear, because Putin doesn't fucking care and has nothing to lose.

[Schulz2.0 28899]

 

[Goredho 17377]

30 minutes ago, The Dog said:

I'm starting to think we end up in a place where Putin is just a warlord overseeing a country in complete ruin. 

Eventually Ukraine is going to eject all of the Russian forces from their territory (all of it - including Crimea and the Donbas). There isn't going to be much left to rule and there won't be anyone left to challenge him. 

And Putin will be just fine with that. He'll just change the subject and move on.

 

 

22 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

....with a giant-ass nuclear arsenal.  That's not sustainable.

I'm becoming more convinced than ever that this conflict eventually goes nuclear, because Putin doesn't fucking care and has nothing to lose.

I think Putin is playing for time.  The war cannot go in his favor with all of the west aligned against him.  After the midterms, he may be facing a west not so unified in their alignment against him.

[Brisketexan 104830]

Just now, Goredho said:

 

I think Putin is playing for time.  The war cannot go in his favor with all of the west aligned against him.  After the midterms, he may be facing a west not so unified in their alignment against him.

Agreed.  And that's a smart play for him.  It may well pay off.

[RPM 26285]

Terrorists