Русский корабль - иди нахуй

[Brisketexan 104827]

9 hours ago, Gatorubet said:

If we all don’t die in a nuclear war, I want this to end with the destruction of most of the Russian military….and sanctions so crippling that most of Russia has to endure long breadlines, empty shelves, few if any luxury consumer goods, no ability to travel outside Russia or participate in global sports, high unemployment and an economy so weak that they can’t spend any money on military - mostly because much of the oil and gas money goes to Ukrainian reparation.

For. Fucking. Decades.

I want living in Russia to emulate the conditions of the 1940s Soviet Union - but without any military.

 

Yep.  Russia is not suited for participating in the community of civilized nations.  Not even as a project.  So wall it off.  All of it.  In every way.  Install a new "iron curtain" -- not for their protection, but for the rest of the world's.  The only Russians you should ever meet outside of Russia from now on should be either refugees/asylum seekers or diplomats.

7 hours ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Russia is likely weighing the surrender of Kherson city.  A reminder— Kherson was occupied, annexed, declared forever Russia.  This is extremely good evidence that we can force Russia out of other make-believe “forever Russia” redlines and Putin will not nuke shit.

 

This is only part of the story.  The other part is that they are setting up their artillery to turn Kherson to rubble.  They are going to shell it indiscriminately to deny the Ukrainians from taking anything resembling a city.

The Russian approach is quite simple: if I can't have it, nobody can.  And note the extension of that -- it doesn't apply just to Kherson, it applies to all of Ukraine.  Russia intends to either own Ukraine, or to turn it into a smoking husk that's not worth owning by anyone.  That's how barbarians act.

Ukraine should be doing all it can to inflict pain inside of Russia.  It is total war now, and if and when Ukraine gets the means, it should destroy Russian cities.

4 hours ago, RPM said:

But you have to sign a loyalty oath to Israel to be an employee of the state of Texas. Seems problematic.

It's not problematic.  It's nakedly unconstitutional, shameful, and one of the dumbest things we've ever done.  It's much, much, worse than problematic.  Fuck Israel in the ass with a goddamned Iranian drone.  Fuck 'em, I hope that they get the joy of enduring what Ukraine is enduring.  And what I want (but won't happen) is that when they ask US for help, we tell em we'll give them exactly as much help as they gave Ukraine -- a membership in the jelly of the month club or some shit.

4 hours ago, DigglerontheHoof said:

Perhaps I overdid it w/ a bit of hyperbole but I'm inclined to let them FAFO.  India didn't lose 6 million people in a European genocide.  The U.S. hasn't propped up India's military to allow them to exist, while enemies were all around them and wanting to wipe them off the face of the earth.

Israel is a shitty ally.  Let'em make it on their own from now on.  I'm sick of their shit.

Fuck yes.  They aren't a friend, they're just a parasite, sucking off our tit and giving us functionally nothing in return.  Time to make it on your own, Israel.  You've been an independent state for 75 years or so, time to start acting like one, Billy Badass.

[Post Oak 20192]

Per Zeihan, the Russians paid for the Iranian drones with a satellite launch.

 

[SL Xpress 7505]

19 minutes ago, RPM said:

This is the man we need to get clandestine arms deals done. Even though he's dead, I know he'd love to fuck the Russians again.

He'd never be elected.

I remember going to one of his town halls west of Fort Worth back in the 80s. The draw up of his district was pretty wild. I always found it remarkable he was able to hold office for as long as he did having the lifestyle and holding the views he did. It was pivotal Texas was a one party state for the Democrats for most of his time in office. When he chose to decline to run in 1996 much of his motivation was due to the realization he'd never be able to win elected office in Texas any more. I always had a great deal of admiration for him even before I discovered how much he had to do with supporting the mujahideen against the Soviets. 

[tokamak 6360]

21 minutes ago, SL Xpress said:

To me the key is there is a peaceful transition of power on a routine basis. 

There is a huge distinction between states that have that versus states that don't. Even China used to have peaceful transitions of power every ten years, even as a totalitarian society (which is unprecedented in the history of the world as far as I know). It only lasted for 30 years, but that it existed for even that brief a period of time is remarkable. That doesn't happen anywhere else in the middle east. Frankly, it's difficult to find that happen anywhere in the Muslim world. When it does, like in Tunisia, it is short lived, as Saied is currently exhibiting. 

Any democracy can have a tyranny of the majority. It's pretty much a staple of democracies in practical terms, frankly. Israel at its heart exists to provide Jews with a homeland, more so than to be a representative democracy. Therefore they are going to do things to make sure Jewish people always retain the reins of power, and any representation by Palestinians or other Arabs is token at best.  

The fact they're still able to maintain peaceful transitions of power among political parties with differences, regardless of the extent of those differences, is an important - even critical - distinction to me. 

It's also what is threatening about Ukraine to Russia and its client states. Putin does not want to see peaceful transitions of power. He wants to see stable authoritarianism with aligned goals and values with Kremlin. He had that with Yanukovych, who was well on his way to transforming Ukraine into a police state prior to the 2014 Maidan Revolution. He would like to see the same thing happen in Hungary with Orban. It's certainly on that path. Turkiye is another one under Erdogan who Putin can relate to and support. 

I would argue Modi in India is unequivocally pursuing the same goal in India. 

I cannot emphasize how important I think supporting Ukraine in this war is. I know I'm pretty much preaching to the choir, but this is a classic case of good versus evil. It's a watershed event for the battle between countries seeking governments who maintain systems and processes that provide for the peaceful transition of power and those who do not. The idea that some people in the US would like to withdraw support for Ukraine at some point in the future, or see support as writing a blank check, concerns me more than any other issue in this country. I consider it a canary in a coal mine sort of narrative, with subtle indications that peaceful transitions of power in the US has lessened as a priority in different ways. 

You took issue with my calling Israel #TeamRussia. Fair enough. But you also say this is a classic good-versus-evil situation. I agree with that.

Let me ask you then - in a clear cut good-versus-evil situation, what are your feelings on someone who wants to sit on the fence?

[Brisketexan 104827]

4 minutes ago, tokamak said:

You took issue with my calling Israel #TeamRussia. Fair enough. But you also say this is a classic good-versus-evil situation. I agree with that.

Let me ask you then - in a clear cut good-versus-evil situation, what are your feelings on someone who wants to sit on the fence?

Bingo.  Russia is committing war crimes and genocide like a motherfucker in Ukraine.  And Israel's concern about that is.......?

Israel has made it clear.  When they say "Never Again!", what they mean is "Never Again*."

"* This statement only applies to European jews, and even then.....it's cool if its nationalist genocide and some jews just happen to get caught up in it."

[tokamak 6360]

1 hour ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Not really for this thread but Israel is what the democracy index says it is: a flawed democracy. The only other eastern med country that holds close to that status is Lebanon, which is a mess because of Civil War.

Israel has an elected government, genuine political competition, and a marketplace of ideas. Opposing political parties routinely take the reins of a government in civilian hands. It is flawed in that many of the inhabitants of its territories are excluded from contesting and influencing political power, as things were in the U.S. under Jim Crow. Or the UK until suffrage. 
 

The key difference is that Israel theoretically could reform its existing system into a full as opposed to flawed democracy.  Its neighbors are authoritarian regimes and cannot reform their systems into democracy— they are explicitly anti-democratic. 
 

This is a tremendously important distinction even as Israel gets justifiably called out for its deep flaws. 

Egypt reformed its authoritarian regime into a legitimate democracy for like 5 minutes and we decided that outcome was no good. I very much wish that our foreign policy boiled down to "support democracy, period", but I have my own doubts about how realistic that is and clearly the current consensus on foreign policy still values certain things higher than pure democracy.

You say Israel's good because it could move toward full democracy and I'm sure that's true. But what's to stop it from moving in the other direction as well? I don't fancy myself an expert but my impression is that there are plenty of high-ranking figures in the Israeli political world who aren't fundamentally different from Orban, Erdogan, or Modi.

 

[statsman 5441]

3 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Bingo.  Russia is committing war crimes and genocide like a motherfucker in Ukraine.  And Israel's concern about that is.......?

Israel has made it clear.  When they say "Never Again!", what they mean is "Never Again*."

"* This statement only applies to European jews, and even then.....it's cool if its nationalist genocide and some jews just happen to get caught up in it."

Oh, horseshit! Israel found out what “never again” meant in 1972. Germany captured the PLO terrorists that killed the Israeli athletes. Germany, post Nazi, had laws on the books outlawing anti-Semitic speech. They paid reparations. Certainly, they would punish these guys who killed the Jews who trusted them for safety?

 
The PLO told Germany that they would terrorize German flights if they didn’t release the terrorists. Nobel Prize winner Willy Brandt made the decision to release the terrorists (in a charade trade). That’s when Israel found out what “never again” meant to the world. 
 
It sounds like I’m defending Israel. I guess I am. Objectively, I agree with Bateshorn’s point up above- Israel, as a Jewish state, is an illiberal idea, but Israelis are liberal people. That creates a tension I expect to cause serious problems for it. 

[SL Xpress 7505]

4 minutes ago, tokamak said:

You took issue with my calling Israel #TeamRussia. Fair enough. But you also say this is a classic good-versus-evil situation. I agree with that.

Let me ask you then - in a clear cut good-versus-evil situation, what are your feelings on someone who wants to sit on the fence?

There are a lot of countries in this world who could be doing more to stand up to Russian aggression than they are doing. Israel is among many of those. Frankly I have found the European response as a whole quite wanting. 

The question isn't about how I feel about it. The question is what should be done about it, and why?

The fact is there's not an act of tyranny anywhere around the world that anyone is going to do anything effective about it without US involvement. Outside of maybe some former French territories in Africa. And that's iffy in both support and effectiveness.

I don't think of myself as a Biden supporter per se, but I've been amazed at his ability to galvanize as much support for Ukraine as he has. It reminds me a lot of George Bush the Elder when Iraq took over Kuwait and Bush organized an effective international response to it. I always felt like it was shame he was a one term president, because while not the stark good versus evil example Russia's invasion of Ukraine represents, that could have had a profound impact on global affairs that we take way too much for granted because it wasn't allowed to transpire. 

Politically it's not possible to either coerce Israel to support Ukraine with military aid, nor is it advantageous to do so. It wouldn't surprise me if there were individual Israelis actively helping Russia in some ways bypass the international embargo for personal enrichment. Especially if they're proud of their Russian background in the first place. That's the kind of thing I'd like the powers that be to concentrate on more so than being a heavy in trying to compel Israel to share military technology. 

The world is not a black and white place. It's important that the US be willing and able to work with people who are horrible human beings to prevent something worse from transpiring. 

[AUS-97HORN 11749]

9 hours ago, Gatorubet said:

 

If we all don’t die in a nuclear war, I want this to end with the destruction of most of the Russian military….and sanctions so crippling that most of Russia has to endure long breadlines, empty shelves, few if any luxury consumer goods, no ability to travel outside Russia or participate in global sports, high unemployment and an economy so weak that they can’t spend any money on military - mostly because much of the oil and gas money goes to Ukrainian reparation.

For. Fucking. Decades.

I want living in Russia to emulate the conditions of the 1940s Soviet Union - but without any military.

 

 

7 hours ago, SL Xpress said:

Or conditions in the Weimar Republic. Because that worked out well. 

 

10 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Yep.  Russia is not suited for participating in the community of civilized nations.  Not even as a project.  So wall it off.  All of it.  In every way.  Install a new "iron curtain" -- not for their protection, but for the rest of the world's.  The only Russians you should ever meet outside of Russia from now on should be either refugees/asylum seekers or diplomats.

 

 

We are letting history repeat itself if we act like Gator and Brisket want.   if we turn Russia into a complete pariah country, it wont take much to turn them into something even worse than they are now (barring the entire country splitting into 20 different independent countries).

They absolutely need to be brought to heel, but completely locking them out of the world has a very strong chance of creating an even greater threat to the world, and unhinged Russia v. the world party.

 

crippling the Weimar Republic with reparations that they couldnt pay back was what let directly to the rise of both communism and national socialism in Germany.   at first both ideologies only gained fringe votes but as the reparationgs really started hurting the Commies rapidly gained popularity. With the Nazi's first only getting about 6% of the vote. The Great Depression is what turned the majority of Germans to the Nazi party because shit got so bad so quick.

in 12 years Germany went from an attempted Republic to a defacto dictatorship.

in 1920 The Communists won only 4 seats and 2% of the vote.

In May 1924 The first vote after the Hyper-inflation episodes of '22-'24 Communism exploded winning 12.5% of the vote and 62 seats. The first version of the Nazi's (because the actual Nazi's were banned) came in at 6.5% of the vote and 32 seats.

In Dec 1924 another vote happened and both of those parties lost about 3.5% of their votes each - which was trending well.

The 1928 election saw the named Nazi party crawl in with only 2.5% of the vote and only 12 votes, while the Commies were back up to 10.5% and 54 seats

and then in the span of 5 years, from 1930, March 1933 and finally Nov 1933, Nazi's went from 2.5% to 18% to 44% to a disputed 92% of the vote, and communism was banned.

 

obviously the Great Depression happened during those last 5 years, but effectively thats exactly what would happen to Russia  and it might only take 2-3 years to become something EVEN WORSE that what we have now.

 

[Bevo 13535]

7 minutes ago, tokamak said:

You took issue with my calling Israel #TeamRussia. Fair enough. But you also say this is a classic good-versus-evil situation. I agree with that.

Let me ask you then - in a clear cut good-versus-evil situation, what are your feelings on someone who wants to sit on the fence?

What are your feelings about Switzerland? And they were on the border and were directly impacted? How much are we expecting from South Korea and Japan? How about the entire Central and South America? Go back to what @SL Xpress said last night. All countries act in their own self-interests. If it helps them, they will act. If it doesn't help them, they may or may not act. Canada has helped. Israel hasn't. I wouldn't read any more into it.

[Brisketexan 104827]

3 minutes ago, SL Xpress said:

The world is not a black and white place. It's important that the US be willing and able to work with people who are horrible human beings to prevent something worse from transpiring. 

Correct.  The world is transactional -- realpolitik and all that.

So, tell me what we're getting out of our endless support of Israel, other than satisfying nutbar Dominionist Evangelicals who need some sick relationship with Israel to usher in the "End Times" just like they read in "Left Behind."  

I'm no friend of Palestinian terrorists.  But Israel is a big boy now, time to put on the big boy pants and be self-sufficient, ESPECIALLY if we aren't getting jack shit for our support of them, which we aren't.

[Brisketexan 104827]

4 minutes ago, AUS-97HORN said:

 

 

 

We are letting history repeat itself if we act like Gator and Brisket want.   if we turn Russia into a complete pariah country, it wont take much to turn them into something even worse than they are now (barring the entire country splitting into 20 different independent countries).

They absolutely need to be brought to heel, but completely locking them out of the world has a very strong chance of creating an even greater threat to the world, and unhinged Russia v. the world party.

 

crippling the Weimar Republic with reparations that they couldnt pay back was what let directly to the rise of both communism and national socialism in Germany.   at first both ideologies only gained fringe votes but as the reparationgs really started hurting the Commies rapidly gained popularity. With the Nazi's first only getting about 6% of the vote. The Great Depression is what turned the majority of Germans to the Nazi party because shit got so bad so quick.

in 12 years Germany went from an attempted Republic to a defacto dictatorship.

in 1920 The Communists won only 4 seats and 2% of the vote.

In May 1924 The first vote after the Hyper-inflation episodes of '22-'24 Communism exploded winning 12.5% of the vote and 62 seats. The first version of the Nazi's (because the actual Nazi's were banned) came in at 6.5% of the vote and 32 seats.

In Dec 1924 another vote happened and both of those parties lost about 3.5% of their votes each - which was trending well.

The 1928 election saw the named Nazi party crawl in with only 2.5% of the vote and only 12 votes, while the Commies were back up to 10.5% and 54 seats

and then in the span of 5 years, from 1930, March 1933 and finally Nov 1933, Nazi's went from 2.5% to 18% to 44% to a disputed 92% of the vote, and communism was banned.

 

obviously the Great Depression happened during those last 5 years, but effectively thats exactly what would happen to Russia  and it might only take 2-3 years to become something EVEN WORSE that what we have now.

 

Counterpoint: tell me how the Russian ethos could develop to something WORSE than it is: a depraved cruel nihilism fueled by some insane, unjustified belief that Russians are somehow the globe's "chosen people" to run the world, unbound by any norms or humanity.

Russia can fix its shit, or it can get fucked.  They've had multiple opportunities to do so, for centuries.  And at each fork in the road....they somehow manage to become even WORSE....they sure as shit never get any better.

Edited October 20, 2022 by Brisketexan

[Ghost of LL 15515]

49 minutes ago, statsman said:

GOLL- “apartheid state”? Really? Who are the current residents of Israel without rights? (Don’t count the millions outside the border that claim to be residents)

You mean apart from the millions of Arabs?

And to be clear, there are two types of Arabs.  For those that live inside Israel's 1967 borders, apartheid is entirely de facto.  Oh, yeah, they have political rights.  They can vote for an Arab party.  But no mainstream party will ever enter into a power-sharing agreement with an Arab party.  So the Arab citizens of Israel will never have political power.  And that means that discrimination against Arabs in employment, housing, and healthcare is and will remain rampant and without possible redress.

For the Arabs who live outside Israel's 1967 borders, the apartheid state is de jure.  Israel has occupied the territory for more than a half-century.  It has walled it off.  It prevents travel.  In Gaza, it prevents basic humanitarian aid from entering.  It wants the territory, but what it fundamentally refuses to do is annex it and make the people living within it citizens with actual rights. 

It's a despicable arrangement that we only encourage.  And frankly, I'm quite sick of it.

[Macanudo 12955]

2 hours ago, DigglerontheHoof said:

I wonder what number of Russian conscripts...or whatever they're calling them...equal 15K NATO trained Ukes, as far as being effective, well equipped battlefield additions?

That depends.   Are the conscripts all armed or will they have the pick up a weapon from the dead ones that do?

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

I wonder what the Russians would have to do to have the UK NOT declare the incident an accident.  Actually shooting down the plane would probably get labeled that as well.  I think Russia would have to take down multiple British aircraft in skies near the UK.

 

Also, Ben Wallace is the defense minister?  That's a little on the nose, isn't it?

[SimonBolivar 10952]

18 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

I wonder what the Russians would have to do to have the UK NOT declare the incident an accident.  Actually shooting down the plane would probably get labeled that as well.  I think Russia would have to take down multiple British aircraft in skies near the UK.

 

Also, Ben Wallace is the defense minister?  That's a little on the nose, isn't it?

Those are bird strikes, sparrows to be precise

Edited October 20, 2022 by SimonBolivar

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

I also fear we are laughing about the futility of the conscription a little early.  If Russia is willing to throw hordes at the Ukrainian lines, they'll eventually break.  They have shitty equipment, not no equipment.  I hope Ukr gets the territory they want before the spring thaw and arm their lines for that wave.

[ABSR 5299]

5 hours ago, DigglerontheHoof said:

Israel can DIAFF, as far as I'm concerned.  They see open genocide and do nothing.  Fuck 'em, I hope they get overrun by the Arab nations (won't happen but I can hope)

I don't disagree on disappointment with Israel's "public" position they recently stated, but really this is about perspective.  

What did the US, UK, NATO, Israel, other countries do when Russia ..... invaded, destroyed and intentionally killed civilians in  Chechnya, Tajikistan, Georgia, Transnitaria/Moldova, Syria, Crimea etc?    

Should we/they all "DIAFF" because of those events and our lack of actions?   

My point is it is a singular event and a singular public statement.  Israel has provided some support and humanitarian assistance publicly, and I would be curious if there is more that is not public....however, I agree it is very disappointing that they are positioning themselves as more neutral on something that in my opinion should resonate with them to a much higher level.

[tokamak 6360]

12 minutes ago, Bevo said:

What are your feelings about Switzerland? And they were on the border and were directly impacted? How much are we expecting from South Korea and Japan? How about the entire Central and South America? Go back to what @SL Xpress said last night. All countries act in their own self-interests. If it helps them, they will act. If it doesn't help them, they may or may not act. Canada has helped. Israel hasn't. I wouldn't read any more into it.

Fair enough, but I haven't seen anything about Ukraine making specific asks of Switzerland, South Korea, Japan, etc. and getting turned down.

[Bateshorn 9920]

We are veering off topic, but the best description I've heard of Israel is:

It can be Jewish, or truly democratic, but it can't be both.

[SL Xpress 7505]

4 minutes ago, tokamak said:

Egypt reformed its authoritarian regime into a legitimate democracy for like 5 minutes and we decided that outcome was no good. I very much wish that our foreign policy boiled down to "support democracy, period", but I have my own doubts about how realistic that is and clearly the current consensus on foreign policy still values certain things higher than pure democracy.

You say Israel's good because it could move toward full democracy and I'm sure that's true. But what's to stop it from moving in the other direction as well? I don't fancy myself an expert but my impression is that there are plenty of high-ranking figures in the Israeli political world who aren't fundamentally different from Orban, Erdogan, or Modi.

 

It's not possible to have a long lasting democracy and rule of law in places where there is very little support or appetite for it among elites. Democracy will always be used as the tool to create an autocracy. 

Democracy as an institution and the ability to hold peaceful transitions of power is remarkably fragile. We take it for granted, frankly. There is not anywhere in the world where the possibility of a future autocracy and the cessation of peaceful transitions of power does not exist. 

While not ideal, I think of the democracies in South Korea and Chile that came out of horrible long term dictatorships, both of them with wholehearted US support. 

I also think of the long term one party rule in places like post war Japan, or the one person rule that continues to this day in Singapore (might as well be a monarchy in practical terms, same as North Korea or Syria but with benevolence). 

I think of the long protection of secular government in Turkiye by the Army following Ataturk's proscriptions which no longer exists. Certainly not democratic, but each time they took over they relatively quickly handed power back to a civilian government.

I think of the collapse of democracies in Venezuela under Chavez, or Germany under Hitler, or Russia under Putin, or Hungary under Orban, or the Muslim Brotherhood immediately moving towards a Sharia state, or the relatively recent failure of democracy in Tunisia. 

I don't believe that democracy as a fundamental principle of foreign policy makes any sense whatsoever. I felt like it was a massive mistake in both Iraq and Afghanistan, which should have been military occupations overseen by a general, much like the occupations of Japan or Germany, and possibly handed over to a western aligned one person rule rather than a democracy. 

At the same time, when a people have shown the kind of support for peaceful transitions of power and the kind of desire for a western orientation that the people of Ukraine have, I am moved beyond words. I don't feel like there's enough appreciation for the sacrifices made by Ukrainians to uphold these values. Not just now in this war of territorial conquest and frankly, cultural genocide being perpetrated by Russia, but the massive demonstrations for 3 months in 2013-14, and even the unremarked upon demonstrations in 2004-5. I feel so strongly they deserve our support. I felt that way back in 2014 when it fell far short of what I thought it should entail, and watched in horror as Russia's machinations were accepted as part of doing business. The fact Putin has seemed to overplay his hand is bringing me such joy. I long for more Ukrainian victories on the battlefield, and hope that western support continues unmitigated. 

[statsman 5441]

Anyone want to argue Israel is a less functional democracy than Cook County, Illinois?

[RPM 26285]

17 minutes ago, SimonBolivar said:

These are bird strikes, sparrows to be precise

[Bateshorn 9920]

4 minutes ago, statsman said:

Anyone want to argue Israel is a less functional democracy than Cook County, Illinois?

[Kwix 2186]

Fucking hell, stay on target people!

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12301]

1 hour ago, SL Xpress said:

To me the key is there is a peaceful transition of power on a routine basis. 

There is a huge distinction between states that have that versus states that don't. Even China used to have peaceful transitions of power every ten years, even as a totalitarian society (which is unprecedented in the history of the world as far as I know). It only lasted for 30 years, but that it existed for even that brief a period of time is remarkable. That doesn't happen anywhere else in the middle east. Frankly, it's difficult to find that happen anywhere in the Muslim world. When it does, like in Tunisia, it is short lived, as Saied is currently exhibiting. 

Any democracy can have a tyranny of the majority. It's pretty much a staple of democracies in practical terms, frankly. Israel at its heart exists to provide Jews with a homeland, more so than to be a representative democracy. Therefore they are going to do things to make sure Jewish people always retain the reins of power, and any representation by Palestinians or other Arabs is token at best.  

The fact they're still able to maintain peaceful transitions of power among political parties with differences, regardless of the extent of those differences, is an important - even critical - distinction to me. 

It's also what is threatening about Ukraine to Russia and its client states. Putin does not want to see peaceful transitions of power. He wants to see stable authoritarianism with aligned goals and values with Kremlin. He had that with Yanukovych, who was well on his way to transforming Ukraine into a police state prior to the 2014 Maidan Revolution. He would like to see the same thing happen in Hungary with Orban. It's certainly on that path. Turkiye is another one under Erdogan who Putin can relate to and support. 

I would argue Modi in India is unequivocally pursuing the same goal in India. 

I cannot emphasize how important I think supporting Ukraine in this war is. I know I'm pretty much preaching to the choir, but this is a classic case of good versus evil. It's a watershed event for the battle between countries seeking governments who maintain systems and processes that provide for the peaceful transition of power and those who do not. The idea that some people in the US would like to withdraw support for Ukraine at some point in the future, or see support as writing a blank check, concerns me more than any other issue in this country. I consider it a canary in a coal mine sort of narrative, with subtle indications that peaceful transitions of power in the US has lessened as a priority in different ways. 

There’s already like a dozen canaries in that coal mine.

[Gravy Train 974]

28 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

I also fear we are laughing about the futility of the conscription a little early.  If Russia is willing to throw hordes at the Ukrainian lines, they'll eventually break.  They have shitty equipment, not no equipment.  I hope Ukr gets the territory they want before the spring thaw and arm their lines for that wave.

Do you even spawn camp, bro?  Kill ratio ain't gonna fabricate itself.

[SL Xpress 7505]

33 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Correct.  The world is transactional -- realpolitik and all that.

So, tell me what we're getting out of our endless support of Israel, other than satisfying nutbar Dominionist Evangelicals who need some sick relationship with Israel to usher in the "End Times" just like they read in "Left Behind."  

I'm no friend of Palestinian terrorists.  But Israel is a big boy now, time to put on the big boy pants and be self-sufficient, ESPECIALLY if we aren't getting jack shit for our support of them, which we aren't.

Well, in practical terms politicians get the support of AIPAC. Or, alternatively, they're faced with a candidate running against them who has their support instead. 

And yes, the evangelical support is real and effective as well. Especially from the Republican side, since historically Jewish support leaned heavily Democratic, although that has changed, especially on important individual cases. I personally know several extremely wealthy (9 digit net worth) Jews who are die hard Republicans, especially for Ted Cruz. 

While there's certainly the end times theme, I'd say the more important factor is more like a modern Crusade, to keep access to the Holy Land open and available - and really, welcoming - to Christians, as opposed to the infidels. There's a simpatico relationship with Jews and Jewish culture that doesn't exist in the same way with Arabic/Islam (the Maronites and Coptics are outside the range of knowledge of virtually all of these groups). That's supported and encouraged by Israelis in every way possible, of course. 

On a personal level I'm completely and whole heartedly pro Israel, but I am a pretty strong philosemitic. I do not expect everyone to share my views on the subject.

[SL Xpress 7505]

10 minutes ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

There’s already like a dozen canaries in that coal mine.

I would agree with that. I'm trying to avoid cloak room territory. 

[Saint Austin 745]

Please take the Israel-Palestine shit elsewhere.

kthxbi

[InkaUtexas 25673]

 

[The Dog 43900]

 

[InkaUtexas 25673]

7 minutes ago, The Dog said:

 

Let them run. But might not be that easy. 

 

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12301]

Ok so remind me what happens next when Kherson falls?

[Brisketexan 104827]

Let them run. But might not be that easy. 
 

Don’t let them get away.
Kill them.
All of them.
That’s how you defeat the Russian military. You destroy everything it has, including every soldier it has. Kill them when they run. Kill them when they stand and fight. Kill them when they sleep. Kill them all.

[texasdago 7554]

2 hours ago, Ghost of LL said:

I'm old enough to remember when Putin declared that kicking Russia off SWIFT would be an act of war

Good point... everything has been a "OH IF YOU DO THISSSSSS.......!!!" threat with no follow-through.

[immamac 42747]

11 minutes ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

Ok so remind me what happens next when Kherson falls?

Russia looks even dumber - and maybe some Russians will be big mad. Putin may do something stupid in desperation. 

Status quo for the last few months basically.

[The Dog 43900]

 

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12301]

(Redacted) off

[tx 3 putt 76681]

 

[Gravy Train 974]

42 minutes ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

(Redacted) off

Nah, I believe it, Israel just isn't going on the record to say as much.  And Ukraine asking for "The Iron Dome," is incredibly specialized request, for a unique fabrication and exposures that Jerusalem isn't in the market for.  It's like asking for a very specific hand-loomed textile for a cleanup job, when commercially-available rolls of paper towels exist on the shelf.

[The Dog 43900]

 

[atomheartbevo 89538]

3 hours ago, tokamak said:

Let me ask you then - in a clear cut good-versus-evil situation, what are your feelings on someone who wants to sit on the fence?

Desmond Tutu, who I think was a Miami fan (he infamously broke and then melted down Doug Flutie’s Heisman trophy) had this to say:

If you are neutral in situations of injustice, you have chosen the side of the oppressor. If an elephant has its foot on the tail of a mouse, and you say that you are neutral, the mouse will not appreciate your neutrality.”

China, India, try to play both sides, and both are benefiting from Russian oil and gas.  China in particular is going to benefit massively from everything - they will pick up a massive chunk of the arms sales that Russia had before (both because it’s clear Russian stuff is not as good, and because Russia won’t be able to manufacture it).  It would be nice if China did more, but to their credit, they have not supplied the military hardware that Russia wanted, and that is arguably a massive win. On the flip side, Israel is not 100% neutral - they sold weapons to Russia after Russia invaded Ukraine in 2014, and Israel did what Russia told them to do and nixed any weapons sales to Ukraine, and Israel does need Assad to an extent to keep his population under control, but I do think Israel could be doing some back-channel stuff.  Switzerland is gonna Switzerland, but even they made some moves that sided with good.  One could go on rattling off countries, but remember that Finland and Sweden got off the fence in the biggest way possible, which is fucking amazing.

2 hours ago, ABSR said:

What did the US, UK, NATO, Israel, other countries do when Russia ..... invaded, destroyed and intentionally killed civilians in  Chechnya, Tajikistan, Georgia, Transnitaria/Moldova, Syria, Crimea etc?    

In terms of Georgia, Moldova and Crimea, the US and NATO learned a very valuable lesson: You must make such incursions too costly for Russia to want to repeat in the future, because otherwise they will just escalate..

And we are putting those lessons to use in Ukraine.  We now recognize that Putin gobbled up some small fish, and started feeling his oats plus some other metaphors.

And to agree with GOLL, the Russian red lines are becoming a myth.  As I said yesterday, Putin owns the media, he’s eliminated his competition, he can lose everything in Ukraine and still retain power, because he controls the media, and as the ISW article from earlier mentioned, all those hundreds of thousands of young men (and women) who fled Russia helped removed potential demonstrators/rebels that Putin does not have to contend with.

Putin just has to worry about a few hundred thousand soldiers who are going to be injured both physically and mentally, and most are not going to be blaming Ukraine.

Edited October 20, 2022 by atomheartbevo

[atomheartbevo 89538]

1 hour ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

Ok so remind me what happens next when Kherson falls?

Ukraine moves to cut off water to Crimea, parts of northern Crimea join the HIMARS umbrella, Putin pulls everybody out of northern/eastern Ukraine (DPR/LPR) to reinforce Crimea.

 Putin does care a lot about those Crimean ports.  

And all of that unmanned water-borne drone work that Ukraine has been putting in with the US and British navies pays off.

That’s for starters.

[atomheartbevo 89538]

22 minutes ago, Gravy Train said:

Nah, I believe it, Israel just isn't going on the record to say as much.  And Ukraine asking for "The Iron Dome," is incredibly specialized request, for a unique fabrication and exposures that Jerusalem isn't in the market for.  It's like asking for a very specific hand-loomed textile for a cleanup job, when commercially-available rolls of paper towels exist on the shelf.

I’m not going to defend Israel, but we should be willing to provide PATRIOT systems around Kyiv and Western Ukraine and show that they can be handled by Ukrainian forces, without risk of falling into Russian hands.

Shit, we sold them to the Saudis, pretty sure the Russians have had a look.

[MillerEP 30390]

 

[MillerEP 30390]

 

[MillerEP 30390]

 

 

[NorthLoop 14147]

5 minutes ago, MillerEP said:

 

Godspeed to that young man. Hope he inspires more like him. 

[NorthLoop 14147]

I hope they get that bridge almost finished, right before it's blown up again.