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Eastwood

By Eastwood
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AUS-97HORN
AUS-97HORN

For the love of Christ woman,  stop posting the same fucking thing every 20 mins just to make your neurotic self feel better.     Bring something useful to the thread other than your inane babbli

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InkaUtexas
InkaUtexas

I volunteered today. Log/Admin role to replace people for 30-60 days. The operation is in the west, or should the Orcs win will be pulled back behind the NATO wall. Either way the humanitarian effort

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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 105123

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As in Helsinki, Sweden. 

Yeah…she’s living in Sweden, says the Swedes are doing their “but, you know, even if we join NATO, we’re neutral-ish” thing more than seems reasonable. Still, they’re being accommodating as hell to the Ukrainians who have taken shelter there.
She’s going to Estonia, too - suspect the Baltic folks will be salty as hell. But even she has observed that her “live in and visit countries that all border Russia” is making her a bit nervous.
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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89659

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They can’t even handle things in Kherson, they aren’t going to take on fresh militaries who are rocking current-gen weapons and stealth aircraft.  And who have had nearly 8 months to see how to defeat the Russian military with older weapons.

Now if things go to shit in Russia, and we get a little coup going, maybe a shitload more people fleeing for the border.

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YGIFS

YGIFS 19450

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Putin, “are you going to tell the G20 what we discussed or are you going to go off script?”

Lavrov, “I think I have an obligation to tell the truth, sir.”

Putin, “that is your choice to make I suppose.  Why don’t you enjoy some in-flight peanuts on your way to Bali.  My personal chef prepared them for you.”  

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YGIFS

YGIFS 19450

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Yeah. he''s basically saying "here's my current location, but my people need to see me and hear me in person so come fuck around and find out."  We're gonna have public schools in our country named after that guy one day and I'm cool with that.  

"Say man, I hear you're a Senior over at Zelensky High."

"Yeah, graduating this year.  Working right now though, for the city.  You know, money in my pocket?"  

holy shit Bolverk, I promise I didn't read your thing first.  Great minds don't think a like, because your smart and I'm filthy.

 

Edited by YGIFS
busy working on bus mural where Zelensky is shirtless, ripped, and shooting an AK-47 draped in the UA flag
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Laxtonto

Laxtonto 12080

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So the full RU retreat from Kherson seems to have been a bit more complete and a bit more of a surprise timing wise than projected. 

So now what? 
 

I ask this because by seeing the RU retreat the UKA lost the lone opportunity in area where the RU was both at a disadvantage and had a natural barrier limiting both resupply and their ability to mass troops to counterattack. I understand why the UKA didn’t try to crush the remaining troops in Kherson proper (protect the people and the city proper) and how it could have easily been used as a trap by blowing the damn, but it seems that this retreat may signal a much more limited scope for the fighting this winter.

The issue is that the UKA is at a disadvantage across the front facing static defenses and natural barriers in the south and existing fortifications and masses of hardened troops in central part of the front and then two lynchpin cities, a natural border with Russia that the UKA have been leery to cross and much more chaos in the northern sectors.

So either we see a river crossing attempt in the winter, a drive trying to sever the supply lines out of the Crimea and potentially Melitopol, dive directly into the meat grinder around Dontesk and Luhansk or keep pushing in the north in Svatove while juggling the Russian border and hoping to set up a southern turn there.

It will be interesting because now since Kherson no longer holds either sides attention how the troops get spread out.

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Eskimohorn

Eskimohorn 5635

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Hadn’t talked to my daughter in several weeks, she just got back from visiting our exchange daughter and her family in Oslo (recall her photo in full military kit a few pages up). While my daughter was there, exchange daughter got a letter from the Norwegian military, putting her on alert for re-activation. Per their dinner table discussions, the Norwegians pretty much assume war is coming - they’re damn well planning for it.
And she’s heading to Helsinki with some Finnish friends in two weeks…the Finns’ conversations all start with “when the Russians come” - not if, but when. And we all know the Finns’ plans.
Putin has bitten off a lot. If he’s dumb enough to bite off more, they’re fucking ready.

After Ukraine, Russia’s gonna need to find a Granada to invade before setting its sights on the Baltic, let alone Scandinavia. Russia’s working on 2 Vietnams worth of casualties and its not even a year in the war they 100% started.

Nevertheless, better prepared than not.
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Bevo

Bevo 13576

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5 minutes ago, Laxtonto said:

So the full RU retreat from Kherson seems to have been a bit more complete and a bit more of a surprise timing wise than projected. 

So now what? 
 

I ask this because by seeing the RU retreat the UKA lost the lone opportunity in area where the RU was both at a disadvantage and had a natural barrier limiting both resupply and their ability to mass troops to counterattack. I understand why the UKA didn’t try to crush the remaining troops in Kherson proper (protect the people and the city proper) and how it could have easily been used as a trap by blowing the damn, but it seems that this retreat may signal a much more limited scope for the fighting this winter.

The issue is that the UKA is at a disadvantage across the front facing static defenses and natural barriers in the south and existing fortifications and masses of hardened troops in central part of the front and then two lynchpin cities, a natural border with Russia that the UKA have been leery to cross and much more chaos in the northern sectors.

So either we see a river crossing attempt in the winter, a drive trying to sever the supply lines out of the Crimea and potentially Melitopol, dive directly into the meat grinder around Dontesk and Luhansk or keep pushing in the north in Svatove while juggling the Russian border and hoping to set up a southern turn there.

It will be interesting because now since Kherson no longer holds either sides attention how the troops get spread out.

Perhaps, this video will help.

2 hours ago, MagicSoccerSpray said:

 

 

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Judge Roybeanbag

Judge Roybeanbag 11819

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14 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

The PR and psychological aspect alone is huge, and they might be under the protection of St. HIMARS.

Makes me wonder - a lot of the military packages that we announce, are already on their way by the time we publicize them, and we announced a bunch of riverine assault boats recently, and they are made just for something like this.

Even if it’s just a bunch of infantry and spotters with drones, MANPADS, and Javelins/NLAWs, they can still do some major damage, shut down a fairly large area, and provide a springboard for assaults down the peninsula.

The other thing is, there is a good road on the north shore of the peninsula that runs the length and intersects with some of the roads Russians are using to supply their troops on the left bank.  If UK can get a couple hundred troops and equipment over there, set up some air defenses and push a bit east, they could easily knock off any traffic on the P57 highway and that one other road that runs north/south.  

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Laxtonto

Laxtonto 12080

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21 minutes ago, Bevo said:

Perhaps, this video will help.

 

Ive seen this one before and its a solid explanation of what is going on. The problem I have from a strategy perspective is that everything in this video is much more middle and longterm strategy (which I agree with by the way) but really only glosses over the near-time issues.

I agree that the most logical thrust will be somewhere between Meltipol and Mariupol, but the time-frame is never really addressed nor what this means for both sides. Part of the issue is that if Kherson becomes a static front then the troops need to be redeployed or rotated out. That takes time. Then you have the question of how quickly can the UKA get HIMARS into Kherson into launch locations that are safe and not a position that can easily be isolated. For all of the awesome destructive beauty those systems employ, they are quite fragile, and to be effective need to be close to the front to now hit targets of opportunity. With a static front, that becomes that much more dangerous since there will be predictable launch locations for specific targets (just like the western supply line route that links Kherson and Sevastopol and Kerch is barely in the 50mi umbrella at the points farthest east from the UKA side of the river). Then we have the question of stocking and preparing for the true offensive thrust. Unless this has been going on simultaneously while both the operations in Kherson and then in the North, then it will take time to redeploy the troops and supplies needed.

The issue is that the weather will play a large role in this and in truth it looks like the RU timed this withdrawal pretty well. Any sooner and there would be plenty of time to shift troops during the rainy season before the winter. Any later and the RU would still be bleeding troops in Kherson and would be trying to do a withdrawal in winter and the operational complexities would have gotten even more extreme.

So my questions fall under the immediate strategy because with the Kherson retreat complete, there is an operational vacuum across the entire front. What happens next? It is real easy to take this victory and then sit on it as they mass for an attack later this winter, but I suspect the UKA has something else in mind. The question short term is what is it?

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Chad Fuck

Chad Fuck 17675

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Yeah. he''s basically saying "here's my current location, but my people need to see me and hear me in person so come fuck around and find out."  We're gonna have public schools in our country named after that guy one day and I'm cool with that.  
"Say man, I hear you're a Senior over at Zelensky High."
"Yeah, graduating this year.  Working right now though, for the city.  You know, money in my pocket?"  
holy shit Bolverk, I promise I didn't read your thing first.  Great minds don't think a like, because your smart and I'm filthy.
 

“Headed to Kyiv for a gap year. I hear the girls are fine and love Americans.”
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Bevo

Bevo 13576

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26 minutes ago, Laxtonto said:

Ive seen this one before and its a solid explanation of what is going on. The problem I have from a strategy perspective is that everything in this video is much more middle and longterm strategy (which I agree with by the way) but really only glosses over the near-time issues.

I agree that the most logical thrust will be somewhere between Meltipol and Mariupol, but the time-frame is never really addressed nor what this means for both sides. Part of the issue is that if Kherson becomes a static front then the troops need to be redeployed or rotated out. That takes time. Then you have the question of how quickly can the UKA get HIMARS into Kherson into launch locations that are safe and not a position that can easily be isolated. For all of the awesome destructive beauty those systems employ, they are quite fragile, and to be effective need to be close to the front to now hit targets of opportunity. With a static front, that becomes that much more dangerous since there will be predictable launch locations for specific targets (just like the western supply line route that links Kherson and Sevastopol and Kerch is barely in the 50mi umbrella at the points farthest east from the UKA side of the river). Then we have the question of stocking and preparing for the true offensive thrust. Unless this has been going on simultaneously while both the operations in Kherson and then in the North, then it will take time to redeploy the troops and supplies needed.

The issue is that the weather will play a large role in this and in truth it looks like the RU timed this withdrawal pretty well. Any sooner and there would be plenty of time to shift troops during the rainy season before the winter. Any later and the RU would still be bleeding troops in Kherson and would be trying to do a withdrawal in winter and the operational complexities would have gotten even more extreme.

So my questions fall under the immediate strategy because with the Kherson retreat complete, there is an operational vacuum across the entire front. What happens next? It is real easy to take this victory and then sit on it as they mass for an attack later this winter, but I suspect the UKA has something else in mind. The question short term is what is it?

I'm not convinced that Ukraine will enter Melitopol and Mariupol as its next move. Yesterday, it sounded like Ukraine was in the peninsula southwest of Kerson. If true, it seems like it may make more sense to take the south up to Crimea in the immediate and consolidate its position there. From that position, it seems like it could later surround the Russian troops in Melitopol and Mariupol. 

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Ghost of LL

Ghost of LL 15531

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1 hour ago, YGIFS said:

Yeah. he''s basically saying "here's my current location, but my people need to see me and hear me in person so come fuck around and find out."  We're gonna have public schools in our country named after that guy one day and I'm cool with that.  

"Say man, I hear you're a Senior over at Zelensky High."

"Yeah, graduating this year.  Working right now though, for the city.  You know, money in my pocket?"  

holy shit Bolverk, I promise I didn't read your thing first.  Great minds don't think a like, because your smart and I'm filthy.

 

At some point, there's going to be a state visit to Washington, followed by a tickertape parade in New York up the Canyon of Heroes.  And that's going to be an amazing event.

16 hours ago, Laxtonto said:

Hopping the river, even if it’s way out there on the peninsula is a start, but this is a long way from being valuable. The issue is that moving eastward enough to make it a viable beachhead is going to be slow going, if not impossible. 
 

It isn’t a spot that makes sense to place any form of artillery or rocket inplacements because it is completely isolated and is difficult to resupply and limited terrain to move around on to help against counter battery concepts. It might be an interesting spot to help extend an antiair screen which limits attack runs from below Kherson and in effect makes all air strikes flying straight into Kherson.

But, this is a nice PR win by being able to say they have officially hopped the river and are in Crimea.

I don't think the peninsula itself is of much use.  It's more important as a proof-of-concept.  Somehow, the Ukrainians were able to pull off an amphibious landing.  And that indicates that they have the tools available to do that in the Crimea.

At the very least, it forces the Russians to consider the possibility and divert troops and supplies to building up coastal defenses.

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956 Worldwide

956 Worldwide 34710

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11 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

At some point, there's going to be a state visit to Washington, followed by a tickertape parade in New York up the Canyon of Heroes.  And that's going to be an amazing event.

I don't think the peninsula itself is of much use.  It's more important as a proof-of-concept.  Somehow, the Ukrainians were able to pull off an amphibious landing.  And that indicates that they have the tools available to do that in the Crimea.

At the very least, it forces the Russians to consider the possibility and divert troops and supplies to building up coastal defenses.

The importance is also tremendously symbolic.  Kinburn is the only remaining part of Mykolaiv Oblast that was occupied. The Russians alleged that they voted to annex themselves to Kherson city and then were annexed into Russia proper. By taking the peninsula, Ukraine can declare another oblast fully liberated and also is taking back “Russian” territory. These sorts of things are extremely important to the public and for morale. 

Edited by 956 Worldwide
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statsman

statsman 5462

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The sledgehammer “execution”- was the story the victim said (that he deserted and joined Ukraine) true, or was it something they forced him to confess? Is the Ukrainian military really using captured Russians (as he claims before being killed)? (I’m skeptical) Did the Russians really get him back in a prisoner swap?

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Bevo

Bevo 13576

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7 minutes ago, Chad Fuck said:

These numbers are almost incomprehensible.  It took us ten years in Vietnam to get to 3/4 of this number of killed.  

I also noticed that Russia has used up nearly all of its tanks and half of its armored combat vehicles. If those numbers are inflated as I would suspect, then Russia is running out of armor.

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89659

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2 minutes ago, statsman said:

The sledgehammer “execution”- was the story the victim said (that he deserted and joined Ukraine) true, or was it something they forced him to confess? Is the Ukrainian military really using captured Russians (as he claims before being killed)? (I’m skeptical) Did the Russians really get him back in a prisoner swap?

I really doubt Ukraine is allowing many Russian soldiers to join the Foreign Legion or whatever at this point, due to a risk of espionage/sabotage.  There are Russians who joined up and are righting for Ukraine, but that happened early on.

He was a convicted criminal, if Russia’s media is correct, and worked for Wagner, and Wagner promised death to any who bailed or surrendered after Wagner got them out of Russian prisons.  I don’t remember the head of Wagners exact speech, but it was something like you either finish your enlistment term or you leave in a body bag or something along those lines.

The fact this was promoted on Russian social media and news and that the head of Wagner kind of bragged about it (a dog deserves a dog’s death) makes me willing to believe they forced him to give a false confession and then had him executed brutally as a way to send a message to any Wagner groups to not think about surrendering to Ukraine.

 

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InkaUtexas

InkaUtexas 25918

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Just now, Brisketexan said:


Under 4% of NATO’s heavy gear….and Russia is getting its ass kicked.

Very true, but some bad ass artillery and there are other components not on that list. ATGM's, supplies, etc. 

Concerning transferring US/NATO heavy armor. I always wondered how the UA could maintain it. Any Tankie's on here want to say how long the maintenance course is? 

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Laxtonto

Laxtonto 12080

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12 minutes ago, MillerEP said:

 

What to me has always been the craziest thing in all of this is that in many ways this is a sanctioned clearing of the ledgers for all the various US military branches for obsolete systems (by US standards) being written off as foreign combat aid. This is for equipment that has been considered obsolete by US combat standards and now instead of salvaging it at a reduced value it is coming off their books in total.

 

This doesn’t sound like a big deal but one of the weird things about militaries is that as their assets and stockpile grow the dollar value on the books become a major issue when dealing with budgetary escalations.
 

We have a ton of systems that are just collecting dust that are technologically obsolete to us but probably still within their budgeted active or secondary lifespans. We are in essence giving the military the ability to ship out what is “OK” as a backup and use those budgetary changes to fully scrap completely worthless systems and still have plenty left over for a shortfall to continue with our standard modernization process via a legit budgetary increase.

And even though this is our 2nd or 3rd rate systems, it is still just wiping out the paper tiger RU advanced systems and armor.

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