Русский корабль - иди нахуй

[Dnaguy 12045]

1 hour ago, MillerEP said:

 

^Lol, Jim Carrey?

Edited November 14, 2022 by Dnaguy

[CHIEF 5094]

4 hours ago, Laxtonto said:

Ive seen this one before and its a solid explanation of what is going on. The problem I have from a strategy perspective is thatMy thinking 

I agree that the most logical thrust will be somewhere between Meltipol and Mariupol, but the time-frame is never really addressed nor what this means for both sides. Part of the issue is that if Kherson becomes a static front then the troops need to be redeployed or rotated out. That takes time. Then you have the question of how quickly can the UKA get HIMARS into Kherson into launch locations that are safe and not a position that can easily be isolated. For all of the awesome destructive beauty those systems employ, they are quite fragile, and to be effective need to be close to the front to now hit targets of opportunity. With a static front, that becomes that much more dangerous since there will be predictable launch locations for specific targets (just like the western supply line route that links Kherson and Sevastopol and Kerch is barely in the 50mi umbrella at the points farthest east from the UKA side of the river). Then we have the question of stocking and preparing for the true offensive thrust. Unless this has been going on simultaneously while both the operations in Kherson and then in the North, then it will take time to redeploy the troops and supplies needed.

The issue is that the weather will play a large role in this and in truth it looks like the RU timed this withdrawal pretty well. Any sooner and there would be plenty of time to shift troops during the rainy season before the winter. Any later and the RU would still be bleeding troops in Kherson and would be trying to do a withdrawal in winter and the operational complexities would have gotten even more extreme.

So my questions fall under the immediate strategy because with the Kherson retreat complete, there is an operational vacuum across the entire front. What happens next? It is real easy to take this victory and then sit on it as they mass for an attack later this winter, but I suspect the UKA has something else in mind. The question short term is what is it?

My thinking is that the Ukes make one more offensive to take the Highway at  Melitopol, cut off the food and equipment supply to Crimea, cut off the water from Kherson, and sit back and wait. Let nature take its course. Russian citizens escape by walking across the Kerch Bridge, Russian soldiers will be shot trying to cross. No winter uniforms, nothing to eater drink, no more ammo or equipment. By February, Russian soldiers will be reduced to cannibalism and drinking each others blood. Ukraine walks into Crimea without firing a shot.

CHIEF

[Brisketexan 105274]

My thinking is that the Ukes make one more offensive to take the Highway at  Melitopol, cut off the food and equipment supply to Crimea, cut off the water from Kherson, and sit back and wait. Let nature take its course. Russian citizens escape by walking across the Kerch Bridge, Russian soldiers will be shot trying to cross. No winter uniforms, nothing to eater drink, no more ammo or equipment. By February, Russian soldiers will be reduced to cannibalism and drinking each others blood. Ukraine walks into Crimea without firing a shot.
CHIEF

There’s no question that General Winter will be one of their most important troops.

[MillerEP 30494]

 

[Macanudo 13009]

Zekensky has balls of steel but I hope his #2 is up to speed on everything important.    That move seems a bit risky.

[kevwun 15856]

3 hours ago, RPM said:

Those are septic tanks.

This is not a joke.  Those are really repurposed septic tanks.

[MillerEP 30494]

 

[Schulz2.0 29007]

31 minutes ago, MillerEP said:

 

[Rimbo 26052]

10 hours ago, Schulz2.0 said:

 

 

 

[Rimbo 26052]

4 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

He's being optimistic if he thinks Ukraine has any interest in signing a peace accord without Russia leaving Ukraine entirely.

[Bevo 13596]

42 minutes ago, CHIEF said:

My thinking is that the Ukes make one more offensive to take the Highway at  Melitopol, cut off the food and equipment supply to Crimea, cut off the water from Kherson, and sit back and wait. Let nature take its course. Russian citizens escape by walking across the Kerch Bridge, Russian soldiers will be shot trying to cross. No winter uniforms, nothing to eater drink, no more ammo or equipment. By February, Russian soldiers will be reduced to cannibalism and drinking each others blood. Ukraine walks into Crimea without firing a shot.

CHIEF

That is what the experts are saying. Just looking at a map though, I would think Ukraine could go from Kakhovka to the upper Crimea bridge and avoid the major battle right now and consolidate that position and allow residents of Crimea time to leave. Then, later attack Meritopol and Mariupol from above and below.

 

 

[27-25 2052]

1 hour ago, MillerEP said:

 

 

Everyone's looking at you Hungary.  Bastards!

[Scheiss Meister 8411]

1 hour ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

I get the sentiment but Russia is already there in Crimea and Donetsk.  Isn’t he just saying keep it up, your position is good?

No.  He's saying that the only defense line that Ukraine will not penetrate is the Russian border.  The pre-2008 Russian border.

In other words, leave and live; stay and die.

Edited November 14, 2022 by Scheiss Meister

[MillerEP 30494]

 

[Celery Man 20996]

2 hours ago, MillerEP said:

 

at this point russia would be wise not to tangle with Zambia

[The Dog 44123]

SIAP:

 

[MillerEP 30494]

 

[The Dog 44123]

 

[Bevo 13596]

11 minutes ago, The Dog said:

 

Wouldn't that be the left side of the river looking downstream towards Crimea (east) on the peninsula? The west side would be the Kherson side.

Edited November 14, 2022 by Bevo

[MillerEP 30494]

 

[MillerEP 30494]

 

[The Dog 44123]

if true they can now cut off water to Crimea.

[MillerEP 30494]

 

[Laxtonto 12090]

9 minutes ago, The Dog said:

if true they can now cut off water to Crimea.

I thought the water was already off because of the dam water level, but regardless if the UKA is taking settlements over the river, what was the RU purpose for retreating from Kherson?  
 

Being over the river already is a huge deal and so I’ll try to temper my enthusiasm, but if the UKA can get a real beachhead (not just a few token SOF groups causing mayhem but a legit forward base) then the idea of a slowdown during the wet season is not happening. They need a 20-30 km cushion over the river and in effect the Crimea is all but lost… Go pull the railroad maps of the region and see what happens when you draw a 70km circle when you are about 25km due south of Kherson as a starting point..

[MillerEP 30494]

 

[MillerEP 30494]

2 minutes ago, Laxtonto said:

I thought the water was already off because of the dam water level, but regardless if the UKA is taking settlements over the river, what was the RU purpose for retreating from Kherson?  
 

Being over the river already is a huge deal and so I’ll try to temper my enthusiasm, but if the UKA can get a real beachhead (not just a few token SOF groups causing mayhem but a legit forward base) then the idea of a slowdown during the wet season is not happening. They need a 20-30 km cushion over the river and in effect the Crimea is all but lost… Go pull the railroad maps of the region and see what happens when you draw a 70km circle when you are about 25km due south of Kherson as a starting point..

It's all unconfirmed, so we'll have to wait at see, but unless they take a sizeable chunk I don't see it being true.

[MillerEP 30494]

Explosion of Rashists on a mine, 06/20/22, location unknown (full video here, there meat

 

[Laxtonto 12090]

1 minute ago, MillerEP said:

It's all unconfirmed, so we'll have to wait at see, but unless they take a sizeable chunk I don't see it being true.

That is my gut feel because those are locations that should be without a doubt not only have troops stationed there but should have fortifications and observation post all through that bank. 
 

So either the RU pulled out planning on blowing the dam, the RU are idiots and are in such disarray that they in essence left the front door wide open, or there is a big enough flanking force rolling up on thier fortifications from behind… It’s possible that any one or a combination there of is happening, but my guess is that this is smaller SOF groups slipping over through the cracks to cause chaos.

[Ghost of LL 15539]

2 hours ago, kevwun said:

This is not a joke.  Those are really repurposed septic tanks.

I don't know that they're "repurposed."  They're still holding shit.

4 minutes ago, Laxtonto said:

That is my gut feel because those are locations that should be without a doubt not only have troops stationed there but should have fortifications and observation post all through that bank. 
 

So either the RU pulled out planning on blowing the dam, the RU are idiots and are in such disarray that they in essence left the front door wide open, or there is a big enough flanking force rolling up on their fortifications from behind… It’s possible that any one or a combination there of is happening, but my guess is that this is smaller SOF groups slipping over through the cracks to cause chaos.

It sounds a lot more like a reconnaissance-in-force to me.  But that's directly across the Antonovskyy Bridge from Kherson.  This may be an indication that they think they can do a quick repair to that bridge and get heavy equipment across, if the Russian defenses in that area aren't fully built-out.

[The Dog 44123]

 

Remember the Ukrainians usually do something unexpected. They might be trying to come in behind the retreating forces from Kherson before they can get their defensive lines set up. 

 

[MillerEP 30494]

In vain the rashist ran back and forth

French self-propelled howitzers and CAESAR armored personnel carriers are ready for shipment. France announced today that it will provide Ukraine with 20 ACMAT Bastion armored personnel carriers and up to a dozen additional CAESAR self-propelled howitzers.

 

[Bevo 13596]

2 minutes ago, The Dog said:

 

Remember the Ukrainians usually do something unexpected. They might be trying to come in behind the retreating forces from Kherson before they can get their defensive lines set up. 

 

That's what I've been saying since it was first reported yesterday. I would guess though that they don't have heavy much artillery over the water, but they probably don't need it so much as the artillery can reach from Kherson, anyway.

[MillerEP 30494]

 

 

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12301]

Surprised that video would get out if they’re launching some sort of surprise attack. Feel like that vid only sees the light of day if they’ve already achieved their objective.

[atomheartbevo 89778]

33 minutes ago, Laxtonto said:

I thought the water was already off because of the dam water level, but regardless if the UKA is taking settlements over the river, what was the RU purpose for retreating from Kherson?  

Being over the river already is a huge deal and so I’ll try to temper my enthusiasm, but if the UKA can get a real beachhead (not just a few token SOF groups causing mayhem but a legit forward base) then the idea of a slowdown during the wet season is not happening. They need a 20-30 km cushion over the river and in effect the Crimea is all but lost… Go pull the railroad maps of the region and see what happens when you draw a 70km circle when you are about 25km due south of Kherson as a starting point..

US has recently announced it is sending or has sent 40 riverine assault boats, in addition to nearly two dozen we sent a few months ago.

https://news.usni.org/2022/11/07/pentagon-adds-40-armed-patrol-boats-in-latest-ukraine-aid-package

Nobody is sure which types they are, but they aren’t little dinghies.  They could be these 33-footers that can hold 8-10 passengers and could move a lot of troops over short distances rapidly.  10 may not seem like a lot of soldiers, but if you were running just the 20 or so boats from the earlier package, you could be moving  200 soldiers in a single shot, or 100 soldiers and heavier equipment (mortars, etc.).  In hours they could move hundreds of troops.

[atomheartbevo 89778]

5 minutes ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

Surprised that video would get out if they’re launching some sort of surprise attack. Feel like that vid only sees the light of day if they’ve already achieved their objective.

Yep, these kinds of things are usually days after it happened.

[atomheartbevo 89778]

[Macanudo 13009]

6 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

US has recently announced it is sending or has sent 40 riverine assault boats, in addition to nearly two dozen we sent a few months ago.

https://news.usni.org/2022/11/07/pentagon-adds-40-armed-patrol-boats-in-latest-ukraine-aid-package

Nobody is sure which types they are, but they aren’t little dinghies.  They could be these 33-footers that can hold 8-10 passengers and could move a lot of troops over short distances rapidly.  10 may not seem like a lot of soldiers, but if you were running just the 20 or so boats from the earlier package, you could be moving  200 soldiers in a single shot, or 100 soldiers and heavier equipment (mortars, etc.).  In hours they could move hundreds of troops.

Is this supposed to be a "Where's Ted Cruz helping patrol the Rio Grande" picture?

[kevwun 15856]

DPS should donate their boats to Ukraine so that they might finally do something useful.

[atomheartbevo 89778]

 

[MillerEP 30494]

 

[atomheartbevo 89778]

Russians are such dumb fucks - it took them a day to figure out that a lot of people frown upon sledgehammer executions.

Edited November 14, 2022 by atomheartbevo

[TexasEd 8071]

2 hours ago, Scheiss Meister said:

No.  He's saying that the only defense line that Ukraine will not penetrate is the Russian border.  The pre-2008 Russian border.

In other words, leave and live; stay and die.

Should I stay or should I go?

 

1 hour ago, Bevo said:

Wouldn't that be the left side of the river looking downstream towards Crimea (east) on the peninsula? The west side would be the Kherson side.

They do this all the time, it is fucking maddening.  They also call the West side right which could only be the perspective if they were on a raft Huckleberry Finn style and floating down the river looking in the direction of the flow.   

[atomheartbevo 89778]

3 minutes ago, TexasEd said:

They also call the West side right which could only be the perspective if they were on a raft Huckleberry Finn style and floating down the river looking in the direction of the flow.   

That’s the way it’s done in the military - left and right are assigned based on looking downstream.

[MillerEP 30494]

 

 

Edited November 14, 2022 by MillerEP

[Judge Roybeanbag 11820]

6 minutes ago, TexasEd said:

Should I stay or should I go?

 

They do this all the time, it is fucking maddening.  They also call the West side right which could only be the perspective if they were on a raft Huckleberry Finn style and floating down the river looking in the direction of the flow.   

He was speaking of the west as to direction - the guys in the west.

[MillerEP 30494]

 

[TexasEd 8071]

52 minutes ago, Laxtonto said:

That is my gut feel because those are locations that should be without a doubt not only have troops stationed there but should have fortifications and observation post all through that bank. 
 

So either the RU pulled out planning on blowing the dam, the RU are idiots and are in such disarray that they in essence left the front door wide open, or there is a big enough flanking force rolling up on thier fortifications from behind… It’s possible that any one or a combination there of is happening, but my guess is that this is smaller SOF groups slipping over through the cracks to cause chaos.

Russia should not blow up the Dnipro dam, if the dam is blown then the water supply to Crimea is shut off again because the canal that delivers water to Crimea is fe from the pool the Dam creates.  Cutting off their nose to spite their face is something the Russians would do though so you gotta watch out for it.

 

[MagicSoccerSpray 1732]

34 minutes ago, MillerEP said:

 

 

 

14 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Russians are such dumb fucks - it took them a day to figure out that a lot of people frown upon sledgehammer executions.

 

[MillerEP 30494]