Русский корабль - иди нахуй

[Captainant 27727]

It's not combat footage or strategic updates, but I've been watching this analysis about the russian army culture of lying - "vranyo" - and how the caustic nature of their lies have added up

Really interesting breakdown of how, why, and who is rewriting reality in the russian army. The "you know I'm lying, I know you know I'm lying, but I'm gonna keep doing it anyway with a straight face" and decorum demands that you act like you believe them. It's a fascinating aspect of an authoritarian leader and endedmic corruption 

[Brisketexan 105275]

1 hour ago, MillerEP said:

 

 

50 minutes ago, The Dog said:

 

Remember the Ukrainians usually do something unexpected. They might be trying to come in behind the retreating forces from Kherson before they can get their defensive lines set up. 

 

Yeah.....this is all pointing to a flanking maneuver to make the Russians a lot less secure in their position on the left bank of the river.  Don't know if it will work, but it's ballsy, and the point is to make the enemy more off-balance than you are.  This could do that.  I'm hopeful.  Let's see what plays out.

[HOOKEM4 5041]

21 minutes ago, TexasEd said:

Should I stay or should I go?

 

They do this all the time, it is fucking maddening.  They also call the West side right which could only be the perspective if they were on a raft Huckleberry Finn style and floating down the river looking in the direction of the flow.   

It makes perfect sense if you do floodplain studies for a living.

[MillerEP 30494]

 

[Bevo 13596]

19 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

That’s the way it’s done in the military - left and right are assigned based on looking downstream.

I get the left and right. East and West should be based on a compass though. West should be the Kherson side of the river and East should be the Melitopol side of the river. And then sometimes they use North and South which should be in places where the river is flowing East/West. With all that said, they should just stick with left and right and just preface that it is looking downstream and the river flows toward the Baltic Sea.

[dimyh 1874]

1 hour ago, Laxtonto said:

That is my gut feel because those are locations that should be without a doubt not only have troops stationed there but should have fortifications and observation post all through that bank. 
 

So either the RU pulled out planning on blowing the dam, the RU are idiots and are in such disarray that they in essence left the front door wide open, or there is a big enough flanking force rolling up on thier fortifications from behind… It’s possible that any one or a combination there of is happening, but my guess is that this is smaller SOF groups slipping over through the cracks to cause chaos.

That would be my guess as well. Didn't think they would try a full fledged flanking manuever on the peninsula but then again I didn't expect Zelensky to be parading his grande balls around Kherson mere days after liberation. Maybe the giant coconuts are contagious? And UA is planning an amphibious assault by hydroplaning all the way there on their giant nuts.

[MillerEP 30494]

 

[Brisketexan 105275]

7 minutes ago, dimyh said:

That would be my guess as well. Didn't think they would try a full fledged flanking manuever on the peninsula but then again I didn't expect Zelensky to be parading his grande balls around Kherson mere days after liberation. Maybe the giant coconuts are contagious? And UA is planning an amphibious assault by hydroplaning all the way there on their giant nuts.

Audacious and daring moves while you have momentum is a hallmark of a shitload of military successes.  And the UA has shown a shitload of that.  When all is said and done, I'll be curious how much of this is coming from advice and analysis of their "friends" in the US and such.....and how much of it is homegrown, from which the experts in the US are learning a crap-ton in real-time.

Can you imagine how the lecturers on infantry and armor tactics at West Point are just trashing their syllabi and coming up with all-new lesson plans these days?

[InkaUtexas 26072]

3 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Audacious and daring moves while you have momentum is a hallmark of a shitload of military successes.  And the UA has shown a shitload of that.  When all is said and done, I'll be curious how much of this is coming from advice and analysis of their "friends" in the US and such.....and how much of it is homegrown, from which the experts in the US are learning a crap-ton in real-time.

Can you imagine how the lecturers on infantry and armor tactics at West Point are just trashing their syllabi and coming up with all-new lesson plans these days?

Saw a video last night that the UA is actually using our tactics of run and gun. Light forces hammer the roads, get behind lines and then in comes the armor groups. It is what we did in Iraq. Someone is studying that success. 

Will see if I can find it. 

[atomheartbevo 89778]

29 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Yeah.....this is all pointing to a flanking maneuver to make the Russians a lot less secure in their position on the left bank of the river.  Don't know if it will work, but it's ballsy, and the point is to make the enemy more off-balance than you are.  This could do that.  I'm hopeful.  Let's see what plays out.

If the distances are right, the Ukrainians re also under the umbrella of artillery (even if it’s HIMARS).

[Brisketexan 105275]

3 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Saw a video last night that the UA is actually using our tactics of run and gun. Light forces hammer the roads, get behind lines and then in comes the armor groups. It is what we did in Iraq. Someone is studying that success. 

Will see if I can find it. 

I read something along those lines as well.  And I'm confident that our past 7 years of training the UA have helped them tremendously on the tactical level, like the run and gun maneuver.  I'm more curious about how they mesh with the larger-scale strategic moves -- like this (perhaps) flanking maneuver on the left bank of the river.  Of course, my course load at West Point was [checks transcripts] zero, so I'm sure I don't even understand the venn diagram of how the tactical and strategic overlap here.

[HOOKEM4 5041]

10 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

I read something along those lines as well.  And I'm confident that our past 7 years of training the UA have helped them tremendously on the tactical level, like the run and gun maneuver.  I'm more curious about how they mesh with the larger-scale strategic moves -- like this (perhaps) flanking maneuver on the left bank of the river.  Of course, my course load at West Point was [checks transcripts] zero, so I'm sure I don't even understand the venn diagram of how the tactical and strategic overlap here.

I also have absolutely zero tactical education but I would bet there was a realization that utilizing GOOD real time intel against an enemy fed by lies and likely diminished real time intel would create good results. Vasquez? Is one on the US dudes I follow and he alluded to it several months ago. He was frustrated on how slow decisions were being made. I assume this is why out military works so well utilizing general and specific objectives and allowing NCOs to mesh that into the system? Someone with much more knowledge would have to explain that to me. Either way, ru seems dangerously close to the most epic military loss in the history of the world.

[Auto Driller 2506]

20 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Audacious and daring moves while you have momentum is a hallmark of a shitload of military successes.  And the UA has shown a shitload of that.  When all is said and done, I'll be curious how much of this is coming from advice and analysis of their "friends" in the US and such.....and how much of it is homegrown, from which the experts in the US are learning a crap-ton in real-time.

Can you imagine how the lecturers on infantry and armor tactics at West Point are just trashing their syllabi and coming up with all-new lesson plans these days?

If the Kinburn / left bank rumors are true (which they seem to be) then it seems pretty genius. The justification for the withdrawal from the right bank by the Russians was to consolidate their defense of Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk / Luhansk. The avenues of attack would be fairly predictable; either straight south towards Melitopol and east towards Donetsk city. Either way, the Russians could effectively fight a single-front war, throw conscripted bodies into the meat grinder, and push for a “diplomatic solution” that would allow them to keep the territory they currently hold.

What they didn’t plan on was that all of those forces that were just transferred across the river would be immediately attacked from the west.

Now they have a dilemma. Do you leave the forces in place and try to defend Crimea and get forced to use the extremely long road from Mariupol to supply them? Because of the symbolic and strategic importance of Crimea to Russia, this seems like the most likely path. But now all of those eastern forces will not get the expected reinforcements and the supply lines are just as stretched as they used to be.

The other option would be to fall back to Donetsk and give up Crimea plus all of the captured Black Sea / Azov coastline. This would be political and possibly, literal suicide for Putin.

It’s a beautiful thing to see.

[davidg 4038]

57 minutes ago, HOOKEM4 said:

It makes perfect sense if you do floodplain studies for a living.

Or if you have ever taken a guided white-water rafting trip:  river right, river left.

[Scheiss Meister 8411]

1 hour ago, TexasEd said:

Should I stay or should I go?

 

They do this all the time, it is fucking maddening.  They also call the West side right which could only be the perspective if they were on a raft Huckleberry Finn style and floating down the river looking in the direction of the flow.   

If they go there will be trouble, if they stay it will be double.

[cactusflinthead 27601]

 

[ShaggyBevo RIP 3868]

That's what I've been saying since it was first reported yesterday. I would guess though that they don't have heavy much artillery over the water, but they probably don't need it so much as the artillery can reach from Kherson, anyway.

They don’t need HIMARS support regular artillery can do it from the right bank.

[Laxtonto 12090]

53 minutes ago, Auto Driller said:

If the Kinburn / left bank rumors are true (which they seem to be) then it seems pretty genius. The justification for the withdrawal from the right bank by the Russians was to consolidate their defense of Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk / Luhansk. The avenues of attack would be fairly predictable; either straight south towards Melitopol and east towards Donetsk city. Either way, the Russians could effectively fight a single-front war, throw conscripted bodies into the meat grinder, and push for a “diplomatic solution” that would allow them to keep the territory they currently hold.

What they didn’t plan on was that all of those forces that were just transferred across the river would be immediately attacked from the west.

Now they have a dilemma. Do you leave the forces in place and try to defend Crimea and get forced to use the extremely long road from Mariupol to supply them? Because of the symbolic and strategic importance of Crimea to Russia, this seems like the most likely path. But now all of those eastern forces will not get the expected reinforcements and the supply lines are just as stretched as they used to be.

The other option would be to fall back to Donetsk and give up Crimea plus all of the captured Black Sea / Azov coastline. This would be political and possibly, literal suicide for Putin.

It’s a beautiful thing to see.

[Pods 7586]

There have been a lot of reports the Russians planned to sit back and lob shells at Kherson once UA forces were there in bulk. UA hitting their flank is going to prevent that possibility. Even if they don't expand into a true salient, pushing the RU artillery back is huge for the citizens of Kherson. Preventing the RU from building up defenses further to the east leaves them vulnerable when the grounds start to freeze.

Ukraine has put on a masterclass and we are all witnesses. 

Slava Ukraini.

Heroyam Slava.  

[Auto Driller 2506]

 

[ShaggyBevo RIP 3868]

I think UKR is going to bypass all the RU entrenchments and traditional strategy and go straight for Crimea. That cuts off the head/Putin and they can clean up the rest later.

Putin’s power/regime is built on wars rebuilding the USSR empire and wouldn’t survive losing Crimea which is his biggest accomplishment.

[Chad Fuck 17743]

I think UKR is going to bypass all the RU entrenchments and traditional strategy and go straight for Crimea. That cuts off the head/Putin and they can clean up the rest later.

Putin’s power/regime is built on wars rebuilding the USSR empire and wouldn’t survive losing Crimea which is his biggest accomplishment.

At this point I don’t put anything past the Ukrainians. But straight to Crimea means a really long supply route over water. They’re either crossing the river or the Black Sea to support their troops. That’s a big deal.

[ShaggyBevo RIP 3868]

At this point I don’t put anything past the Ukrainians. But straight to Crimea means a really long supply route over water. They’re either crossing the river or the Black Sea to support their troops. That’s a big deal.

Keep in mind Russia’s defense is set for traditional warfare lines of contact.

Then if the reports of UKR taking places on the left bank are true those lines aren’t so long and comparatively with no Kerch bridge RU’s are likely longer.

[The Dog 44124]

45 minutes ago, ShaggyBevo RIP said:

I think UKR is going to bypass all the RU entrenchments and traditional strategy and go straight for Crimea. That cuts off the head/Putin and they can clean up the rest later.

Putin’s power/regime is built on wars rebuilding the USSR empire and wouldn’t survive losing Crimea which is his biggest accomplishment.

Yeah the OSINT guys have been hinting that this might be the play. Ukraine always seems to come up with a big surprise.

That said, I think Mariupol is next. It's the big supply hub for everything west of it and if they cut that off everything falls apart from Mariupol to Crimea. So that gets them Crimea without actually doing a frontal assault. 

[atomheartbevo 89778]

 

[SydneyCarton 48150]

8 hours ago, The Dog said:

Yeah the OSINT guys have been hinting that this might be the play. Ukraine always seems to come up with a big surprise.

That said, I think Mariupol is next. It's the big supply hub for everything west of it and if they cut that off everything falls apart from Mariupol to Crimea. So that gets them Crimea without actually doing a frontal assault. 

Yeah but fighting in a city like Mariupol is going to cost a fuck ton of Ukrainians. Possibly more than they can afford to spend to take Mariupol. 

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

1 hour ago, SydneyCarton said:

Yeah but fighting in a city like Mariupol is going to cost a fuck ton of Ukrainians. Possibly more than they can afford to spend to take Mariupol. 

I don't have a good sense of the size of fighting forces here.  What is Ukr actively supporting in the field?

[SydneyCarton 48150]

12 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

I don't have a good sense of the size of fighting forces here.  What is Ukr actively supporting in the field?

I have no clue, but I know fighting in a city with entrenched defenses usually is costly AF. Whatever it might take to capture it just might be too much, if there are other options, be it 5 or 15k troops. I think that's the point I was attempting to make. 

[ShaggyBevo RIP 3868]

Yeah the OSINT guys have been hinting that this might be the play. Ukraine always seems to come up with a big surprise.
That said, I think Mariupol is next. It's the big supply hub for everything west of it and if they cut that off everything falls apart from Mariupol to Crimea. So that gets them Crimea without actually doing a frontal assault. 

You don’t have take Mariupol just cut the supply lines from there. If RU can’t keep Crimea is there any purpose to having Mariupol if UKR isn’t going to allow shipping in and out?

What troops are in Crimea? Aren’t the RU forces mostly in Donbas regions and Zaporizhzhia?

[ShaggyBevo RIP 3868]

Yeah but fighting in a city like Mariupol is going to cost a fuck ton of Ukrainians. Possibly more than they can afford to spend to take Mariupol. 

Mariupol is more of a pile of rubble than a city at this point.

[SydneyCarton 48150]

1 minute ago, ShaggyBevo RIP said:

Mariupol is more of a pile of rubble than a city at this point.

It is still difficult terrain to fight against an occupying force, regardless of whether the buildings have 3 walls or 4. 

[The Dog 44124]

2 hours ago, SydneyCarton said:

Yeah but fighting in a city like Mariupol is going to cost a fuck ton of Ukrainians. Possibly more than they can afford to spend to take Mariupol. 

 

8 minutes ago, ShaggyBevo RIP said:

You don’t have take Mariupol just cut the supply lines from there. If RU can’t keep Crimea is there any purpose to having Mariupol if UKR isn’t going to allow shipping in and out?

What troops are in Crimea? Aren’t the RU forces mostly in Donbas regions and Zaporizhzhia?

Yeah I don't think they take the city either - just get the supply depots and logistical points within HIMARS range.

They can obviously do that in other ways by not going straight for the city. 

[atomheartbevo 89778]

[atomheartbevo 89778]

Shit-talking one of Putin’s inner circle.

 

 

[atomheartbevo 89778]

 

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12301]

In all of these videos of Russian soldiers, I’m struck by one thing: their desire to kill Ukrainians is high.

They want this war.

Their complaint isn’t that they are sent to kill Ukrainians, it’s that they don’t have enough killing stuff to do the job right.

[Bevo 13596]

Russia has always talked about having warm weather ports. Sevastopol was nice for them and now it is gone. Dumbasses.

[Chad Fuck 17743]

10 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

 

Any idea who the guy in the first video is?  Because I recognize him as consistently being the pragmatist in comparison to the rest of the Kremlin shills in these shows.  He's pretty deft at not saying, "This whole thing was a dumb idea, it sucks and it is no surprise we're losing."  Yet, he manages to convey that idea most of the time.  Frankly, I'm surprised he's still alive, let alone still on these programs.

[The Dog 44124]

 

[utee94 15852]

1 minute ago, The Dog said:

 

Tweet is now deleted...

[Brisketexan 105275]

1 hour ago, SydneyCarton said:

I have no clue, but I know fighting in a city with entrenched defenses usually is costly AF. Whatever it might take to capture it just might be too much, if there are other options, be it 5 or 15k troops. I think that's the point I was attempting to make. 

 

1 hour ago, ShaggyBevo RIP said:

You don’t have take Mariupol just cut the supply lines from there. If RU can’t keep Crimea is there any purpose to having Mariupol if UKR isn’t going to allow shipping in and out?

What troops are in Crimea? Aren’t the RU forces mostly in Donbas regions and Zaporizhzhia?

These.  The UKA has been wise thus far in avoiding getting its troops caught in large urban meat grinders.  Yes, there have been real urban battles, but for much smaller areas.  The UKA can accomplish its goals by cutting the supply lines.  For the purposes of this war, Ukraine just needs to cut Russia's corridor to Crimea.   It can do that outside of Mariupol.  Starve and bleed the Russian army.  Once that is done, UKA can take whatever city it wants.

1 hour ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

In all of these videos of Russian soldiers, I’m struck by one thing: their desire to kill Ukrainians is high.

They want this war.

Their complaint isn’t that they are sent to kill Ukrainians, it’s that they don’t have enough killing stuff to do the job right.

This is correct.  The Russian military - and the Russian people themselves - WANT THIS WAR.  THEY AGREE WITH THIS WAR.  THEY WANT TO DOMINATE, DESTROY, AND KILL UKRAINE. There is no reasoning or negotiating with Russia.  There can only be defeating them.  Then isolating them for the foreseeable future.

[InkaUtexas 26072]

Thread moves fast. A few thoughts. 

1- Don't piss off the Dagestanis.

2- Hit the coastal flank, move artillery to the peninsula, and bam, hammer the fleet. 

3- No reason to take the cities. Just cut off the military. Ukraine has been good about not hammering urban areas. Don't start now. 

4- Ukraine is better prepared for winter. Sucks to be a Russian conscript. Saw videos of their troops being issued Iranian equipment. LMAO.

5- Belarus is a bitch. 

6- Fuck Russia and their TV. 

7- Our shit designed in the 1980's is destroying their modern crap. 

8- FAFO.... This war is going to take time, not 1 event. 

[Trey3216 15352]

17 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

US has recently announced it is sending or has sent 40 riverine assault boats, in addition to nearly two dozen we sent a few months ago.

https://news.usni.org/2022/11/07/pentagon-adds-40-armed-patrol-boats-in-latest-ukraine-aid-package

Nobody is sure which types they are, but they aren’t little dinghies.  They could be these 33-footers that can hold 8-10 passengers and could move a lot of troops over short distances rapidly.  10 may not seem like a lot of soldiers, but if you were running just the 20 or so boats from the earlier package, you could be moving  200 soldiers in a single shot, or 100 soldiers and heavier equipment (mortars, etc.).  In hours they could move hundreds of troops.

I'm not gonna go look for it, but I posted somewhere in the thread months ago that we should've been flying as many river boats as we could over there.  Especially the heavier ones we used on the Mekong in Vietnam.  Those things are fairly heavily armed for a patrol boat, can travel pretty quickly, and transport full fire squads and small artillery in rapid fashion.   20-30 of them, as stated above, could move hundreds of troops over a few hour period.  What better time to do it than while the enemy is pre-occupied with a retreat and building defensive lines.   

[956 Worldwide 34746]

Russia lashed out today at Ukraine, firing over 100 missiles. Hitting Kyiv, Lviv, Mikolayiv, others. Nationwide and several cities are without power and some without water. 
 

Seeing some light snowflakes in central and Eastern Europe as night falls. We all have warm beds.

 

[956 Worldwide 34746]

22 minutes ago, utee94 said:

Tweet is now deleted...

Lavrov left, he didn’t get kicked out. He left before Zelenskyy gave his video address.

 

[Brisketexan 105275]

10 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Thread moves fast. A few thoughts. 

1- Don't piss off the Dagestanis.

2- Hit the coastal flank, move artillery to the peninsula, and bam, hammer the fleet. 

3- No reason to take the cities. Just cut off the military. Ukraine has been good about not hammering urban areas. Don't start now. 

4- Ukraine is better prepared for winter. Sucks to be a Russian conscript. Saw videos of their troops being issued Iranian equipment. LMAO.

5- Belarus is a bitch. 

6- Fuck Russia and their TV. 

7- Our shit designed in the 1980's is destroying their modern crap. 

8- FAFO.... This war is going to take time, not 1 event. 

You left out "9- OU sucks."  I'm sure it was just an oversight.

Seriously, agreed on all points.  Ukraine isn't going to run down there and fuck one of those cows, it's gonna walk down there and fuck all of 'em.  But that takes time.

[InkaUtexas 26072]

2 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Russia lashed out today at Ukraine, firing over 100 missiles. Hitting Kyiv, Lviv, Mikolayiv, others. Nationwide and several cities are without power and some without water. 
 

Seeing some light snowflakes in central and Eastern Europe as night falls. We all have warm beds.

 

100 missles.... Let that sink in. And they are not like us. When we decide to hit a target, we hit a target. They fire and forget. Russia needs to be kicked out of the G 20. Now..... 

[Brisketexan 105275]

1 minute ago, InkaUtexas said:

100 missles.... Let that sink in. And they are not like us. When we decide to hit a target, we hit a target. They fire and forget. Russia needs to be kicked out of the G 20. Now..... 

And Ukraine needs to be given long-range strike capability.  It's long past time.

[InkaUtexas 26072]

Just now, Brisketexan said:

You left out "9- OU sucks."  I'm sure it was just an oversight.

Seriously, agreed on all points.  Ukraine isn't going to run down there and fuck one of those cows, it's gonna walk down there and fuck all of 'em.  But that takes time.

Yeah, sorry, was on a conference call. Could also add that the aggy pretend army, aka Belarus, will judge the quality of the meat and try and steal the sheep. 

UA is getting some damn good advice. Reminds me of when the Croats decided to go after the Serbs in the Krajina. They were advised. Not by DOD, but people with DOD experience. Worked well.  

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

15 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

3- No reason to take the cities. Just cut off the military. Ukraine has been good about not hammering urban areas. Don't start now. 

That's our perspective, where we care mostly about military strategy.  They have their own countrymen suffering under rule of Russia in the cities where war crimes are commonplace.  They've got to balance the humanitarian side of it with military.