Русский корабль - иди нахуй

[InkaUtexas 25911]

2 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

How has that never been a site motto?

Cuz we are neither, and both. 

[Pato del Muerto 52489]

Maybe a good retaliation would

be to level a base that these things originate from, and then tell russia they are moving air defense well across the border to protect polish land and will shoot down anything in range, to be certain. 

[Pig Bellmont 8715]

15 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

But I wonder...... Recent days their pundits have been talking about hitting a NATO country to show they can. Did they? Either way they are fuckers. 

This is my guess that it was intentional. Like sending a submarine off the coast of our East Coast or their planes entering our air space in Alaska. Seems like an intentional “what are you going to do about it” move

[Pato del Muerto 52489]

2 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Cuz we are neither, and both. 

Speak for yourself. Wait. 

[SimonBolivar 10958]

3 minutes ago, Pig Bellmont said:

This is my guess that it was intentional. Like sending a submarine off the coast of our East Coast or their planes entering our air space in Alaska. Seems like an intentional “what are you going to do about it” move

Why would they want to unify NATO even more against Russia in a war they're already losing when their only hope is that the rest of Europe gets bored and forgets about the war in the next year or two? Russia makes some stupid moves, but that would be the dumbest yet.

[956 Worldwide 34705]

It also looks like oil delivery to Hungary, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic has halted due to damage to the Druzhba pipeline infrastructure in Ukraine. Unclear whether it’s power related or the pipeline itself.

 

[Bevo 13576]

Seems like Russia had a lot of losses today: 

 

[Laxtonto 12080]

I would be real interested to see the vector these missiles were on and what their intended target was. 
 

We all jump to this being intentionally “unintentional”, but is it much more likely it is poor target selection and incompetence or mechanical/technical failure with little real concern if they overshoot.

[SimonBolivar 10958]

I guess the Russians responded for the Poles themselves?

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12301]

welp, that is an attack on NATO soil.

The response should be clear and overwhelming. 

[Chad Fuck 17672]

1 minute ago, Laxtonto said:

I would be real interested to see the vector these missiles were on and what their intended target was. 
 

We all jump to this being intentionally “unintentional”, but is it much more likely it is poor target selection and incompetence or mechanical/technical failure with little real concern if they overshoot.

 

1 minute ago, SimonBolivar said:

I guess the Russians responded for the Poles themselves?

These two posts in quick succession make me think today was an aggy=ruzzia day. 

[InkaUtexas 25911]

1 minute ago, Laxtonto said:

I would be real interested to see the vector these missiles were on and what their intended target was. 
 

We all jump to this being intentionally “unintentional”, but is it much more likely it is poor target selection and incompetence or mechanical/technical failure with little real concern if they overshoot.

One, ok. two? nah... They were shooting at the border. 

Either way, move NATO Air Defense to the border. Guard Western Ukraine. Let's call it Article 5.1 Beta. 

[Chad Fuck 17672]

18 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

How has that never been a site motto?

Too obvious?

[Brisketexan 105098]

27 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Useless and dangerous to speculate here, so much depends on what Russia says/does in these next hours and what the Poles decide to ask for. 

This.

23 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

1- Ask for NATO air defense to move to the border area. 

2- Mobilize the Rapid Reaction Force. 

3- Better to shoot these down over Ukraine, thus NATO directly engages. Create a no-fly zone. Any Russian aircraft heading towards a NATO nation is marked and tracked as a threat. 

4- Interesting the Russian delegation left Bali meetings. Did they know? 

5- Unleash the Winged Hussars and take Belarus. Put more pressure on Putin and his bitches. This is the highest escalation, but I bet it is being discussed. 

Oh, and this is the Surly. We speculate more about things than our next Head Coach. (and it should be Zelensky or one of his generals when they retire. At least they can run an effective offense.) 

And the top three are what makes sense to me.  We should start shooting down any missile that even looks like it could be on a trajectory to hit NATO soil.

[SimonBolivar 10958]

Here's the location (red marker, not blue)

 

Edited November 15, 2022 by SimonBolivar

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

Poland gonna invoke Article 5000.  

[Brisketexan 105098]

1 minute ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

Poland gonna invoke Article 5000.  

5.....5000....

[gsoda3 3254]

our squawk box just said polish authorities are telling us the missiles were remains of russian rockets which had been shot down over ukraine.  

[The Dog 44021]

oh look who wants to be our friend now:

 

 

[Bateshorn 9927]

I seriously doubt it's intentional.  In the least, you just gave NATO the right to declare a no fly zone over Ukraine.

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

Seriously though. No one hates Russia more than Poland.  They’ve been keyed up ready to rock since day 1 of this.  

[Texas St. Armadillos 1381]

Whoopsie Daisy?

[The Dog 44021]

4 minutes ago, gsoda3 said:

our squawk box just said polish authorities are telling us the missiles were remains of russian rockets which had been shot down over ukraine.  

 

[Bateshorn 9927]

Live look at NATO partners trying to control Poland rn:

 

[Chad Fuck 17672]

3 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

I seriously doubt it's intentional.  In the least, you just gave NATO the right to declare a no fly zone over Ukraine.

Which Russian pilots certainly wanted anyway.  And Ukrainians already gave them.

[SimonBolivar 10958]

3 minutes ago, gsoda3 said:

our squawk box just said polish authorities are telling us the missiles were remains of russian rockets which had been shot down over ukraine.  

Ukraine was saying they shot down something like 60 of the 90 missiles Russia shot at them today. 

 

 

[gsoda3 3254]

2 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

Live look at NATO partners trying to control Poland rn:

 

and here's a live look at yasiel puig...

 

[956 Worldwide 34705]

Hearing some chatter that what hit the farm was remains of a Russian missile that was intercepted by Ukrainian air defense. 
 

A lot of sense there, as the landing location is about 5 miles inside of Poland and far from real Ukrainian targets. Russians miss but not by that much. 
 

If so, it will certainly be a factor for restraint. I think Ukraine will get a lot more of what it wants as a result but we are a way off from article 5.

[SydneyCarton 48081]

7 minutes ago, The Dog said:

oh look who wants to be our friend now:

 

 

 

[SquishMitten 10403]

Hmm. Wonder what kind of response something like that warrants (if true)? You probably shouldn't be shooting close enough to a NATO country that your rocket scraps can cause damage to such NATO country. 

Seems like that is enough justification to bring in a shit-ton of anti-air equipment to shoot down anything that could possibly come within a few hundred miles of any NATO border.

[SimonBolivar 10958]

1 minute ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Hearing some chatter that what hit the farm was remains of a Russian missile that was intercepted by Ukrainian air defense. 
 

A lot of sense there, as the landing location is about 5 miles inside of Poland and far from real Ukrainian targets. Russians miss but not by that much. 
 

If so, it will certainly be a factor for restraint. I think Ukraine will get a lot more of what it wants as a result but we are a way off from article 5.

I still think you have to respond in some way (not Article 5). If you're Poland can you continue to allow Russia to shoot missiles close enough to Poland where interceptions lead to deaths in your country? The internal politics must be intense for Warsaw right now.

[SydneyCarton 48081]

3 minutes ago, SquishMitten said:

Hmm. Wonder what kind of response something like that warrants (if true)? You probably shouldn't be shooting close enough to a NATO country that your rocket scraps can cause damage to such NATO country. 

Seems like that is enough justification to bring in a shit-ton of anti-air equipment to shoot down anything that could possibly come within a few hundred miles of any NATO border.

 

1 minute ago, SimonBolivar said:

I still think you have to respond in some way (not Article 5). If you're Poland can you continue to allow Russia to shoot missiles close enough to Poland where interceptions lead to deaths in your country? The internal politics must be intense for Warsaw right now.

Kind of agree with other posters. You push that no fly zone and expand missile defense systems to all over Ukraine. And if Poland wants to tacitly let 20k or so trained badasses into Ukraine to from a regiment, well, so be it...

[956 Worldwide 34705]

1 minute ago, SimonBolivar said:

I still think you have to respond in some way (not Article 5). If you're Poland can you continue to allow Russia to shoot missiles close enough to Poland where interceptions lead to deaths in your country? The internal politics must be intense for Warsaw right now.

I think we may see the Article 4 consultation protocol invoked. Poland is already awash with NATO troops and equipment including Patriots in Rzseszow at the airport. There will for sure be some signaling within Poland but at this stage— the stronger and more feared response will be to improve Ukraine capacities. That’s what Russia really doesn’t want, and Ukraine just got a hell of an argument to get more. 

[The Dog 44021]

1 minute ago, 956 Worldwide said:

I think we may see the Article 4 consultation protocol invoked. Poland is already awash with NATO troops and equipment including Patriots in Rzseszow at the airport. There will for sure be some signaling within Poland but at this stage— the stronger and more feared response will be to improve Ukraine capacities. That’s what Russia really doesn’t want, and Ukraine just got a hell of an argument to get more. 

and to use them to attack the air bases where those air launched missiles are coming from.

[Ghost of LL 15531]

1 hour ago, statsman said:

I went ahead and read Putin’s essay/screed from 2021 “On the Ukraine Question”. Took a little over ten minutes (would have taken longer if I cared enough to google more about every 14th century Russian prince he mentioned). 
 
He’s crazy. It’s like “Mein Kampf”- when someone tells you who they are that explicitly, you need to believe him. Anyway, he sees two acceptable outcomes for Ukraine (all of it)-

1. Reabsorbed into Russia, or

2. A Russian puppet state

This hard, miserable war will end, most likely, with a hard, militarized border. Whether that border is in Ukraine or on the official border of Russia is what is being determined by the fighting. I see decades of hostility, with Ukraine spending a hell of a lot more than 2% of GDP on defense. If Ukraine makes the right choices (liberal democracy, free markets, rule of law), time is on their side. 

There's an interesting book out entitled How Wars End by Dan Reiter.  It posits that the traditional traditional view of war termination--that wars end when the uncertainty as to the balance of power is resolved through the verdict of the battlefield--is wrong.  It argues that the biggest determiner of when a war will end is whether the commitments made by both parties to end the war can be trusted.

If a party cannot trust the commitment made by its opponent not to reinitiate hostilities, then the war will not end.  An illustration of this is the difference between World War I and World War II.  The Entente could trust that Germany would not reinitiate hostilities in November 1918 because Germany was in a revolutionary state.  Its monarchy and government had collapsed and its army was in open mutiny.  So there was no chance it could restart the war, even if it wanted to.  In contrast, Germany in 1944-45 had broken ever peace agreement it had ever made, from Versailles to Munich.  There was no reason to believe that it would adhere to any commitments it might make in any armistice with the Allies.  So the only acceptable outcome was an absolute victory resulting in state destruction.

We're facing a similar problem with Russia.  Ukraine can't have any confidence that Russia would adhere to the terms of any war-ending agreement.  So it becomes real hard to see how they can reach a diplomatic solution. 

1 hour ago, 956 Worldwide said:

For those who can’t see, two missiles apparently intended for Ukraine hit grain dryers in Southeast Poland and killed two Poles. The Polish PM has convened an emergency security council meeting. This is fucking terrifying. 

Sounds like we're coming up with a way to say that this wasn't an attack.  The missile was "shot down," and instead of falling out of the sky, it defied gravity and actually flew further than it would have on its planned trajectory.  Yeah, that's it.  That's the ticket.

[SimonBolivar 10958]

7 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

There's an interesting book out entitled How Wars End by Dan Reiter.  

Emory trash

 

 

Seriously though that's an interesting theory and one that makes some sense. I'm assuming his theory addresses the popular assumption that leaders were just making sure that they learned their lesson from WWI and now were requiring everything?

Edited November 15, 2022 by SimonBolivar

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

7 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

Sounds like we're coming up with a way to say that this wasn't an attack.  The missile was "shot down," and instead of falling out of the sky, it defied gravity and actually flew further than it would have on its planned trajectory.  Yeah, that's it.  That's the ticket.

yeah.  the physics are baffling.

[Cheeseweasel 26438]

[SquishMitten 10403]

11 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

Sounds like we're coming up with a way to say that this wasn't an attack.  The missile was "shot down," and instead of falling out of the sky, it defied gravity and actually flew further than it would have on its planned trajectory.  Yeah, that's it.  That's the ticket.

Must've been one of them white winged dove missiles. Dealt with a few of those assholes two weeks ago

[Rimbo 25921]

15 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

I think we may see the Article 4 consultation protocol invoked. Poland is already awash with NATO troops and equipment including Patriots in Rzseszow at the airport. There will for sure be some signaling within Poland but at this stage— the stronger and more feared response will be to improve Ukraine capacities. That’s what Russia really doesn’t want, and Ukraine just got a hell of an argument to get more. 

O'Brien agrees with you:

 

[956 Worldwide 34705]

Elliot Higgins (Bellingcat) flags that there may be some wreckage of an S-300 interceptor at the site.  
 

 

[MissingInAction 25045]

My polish sources are also aligning with the rocket debris hypothesis. 

[Rimbo 25921]

18 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

There's an interesting book out entitled How Wars End by Dan Reiter.

This is the second time from different sources I've heard about this book. Time to check it out, I guess...

[SydneyCarton 48081]

11 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

yeah.  the physics are baffling.

 

All kidding side I actually listened to a snippet of a podcast recently that explained the physics of the magic bullet fairly convincingly, mostly starting with the fact that Jim Garrison made a ton of false assumptions. 

Also, might be a good time to see if @BearSchlong has any insight considering his kiddo just got back from Poland not too long ago from his rotation. 

[Rimbo 25921]

3 minutes ago, MissingInAction said:

My polish sources are also aligning with the rocket debris hypothesis. 

I believe this hypothesis as much as I believe in the Tooth Fairy. Debris doesn't blow up two grain dryers and kill two people.

This is a story to keep us from going full Article 5. Which is a good thing, mind you.

[Trey3216 15346]

1 minute ago, Rimbo said:

I believe this hypothesis as much as I believe in the Tooth Fairy. Debris doesn't blow up two grain dryers and kill two people.

This is a story to keep us from going full Article 5. Which is a good thing, mind you.

It could if the debris was the warhead and it was knocked off course at relatively high altitude.  Doesn't take long for one of those things to travel 12-15 miles.  You're talking seconds, not minutes, and 2-4degrees change in trajectory.  

[MillerEP 30455]

 

[Captainant 27656]

23 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

Sounds like we're coming up with a way to say that this wasn't an attack.  The missile was "shot down," and instead of falling out of the sky, it defied gravity and actually flew further than it would have on its planned trajectory.  Yeah, that's it.  That's the ticket.

Modern cruise missiles aren't ballistic - they fly and maneuver very much like an aircraft does and many missiles even use turbofan engines and not rockets thanks to their superior fuel economy. I can totally see a russian missile damaged by Ukrainian air defense flying off course, especially if it was targetting something near the border already

[956 Worldwide 34705]

1 minute ago, SydneyCarton said:

 

All kidding side I actually listened to a snippet of a podcast recently that explained the physics of the magic bullet fairly convincingly, mostly starting with the fact that Jim Garrison made a ton of false assumptions. 

Also, might be a good time to see if @BearSchlong has any insight considering his kiddo just got back from Poland not too long ago from his rotation. 

@BearSchlong’s kiddo was based out of Rzeszow, near the airport at a multipurpose sports/event arena.  (He’s mentioned the unit and I am familiar with the locale). The airport is a hub for NATO flights and has Patriot batteries on the ground.  There is a border crossing down the road near Przemysl that got a lot of a refugee traffic (and of course, all sorts of flow the other way). Early in the war there was a missile strike close enough to the border that it could be heard in the Rzeszow area, on barracks at a military facility. 
 

All this is long way off from where the strike happened— it’s about 180 km by road. 

[Royalfan5 2354]

5 minutes ago, Rimbo said:

I believe this hypothesis as much as I believe in the Tooth Fairy. Debris doesn't blow up two grain dryers and kill two people.

This is a story to keep us from going full Article 5. Which is a good thing, mind you.

Grain Dryers don't need much of an excuse to go up in flames and kill people. Happens several times every fall here without anything falling from the sky.