Русский корабль - иди нахуй

[MillerEP 30,455]

 

[956 Worldwide 34,705]

8 minutes ago, Rimbo said:

I believe this hypothesis as much as I believe in the Tooth Fairy. Debris doesn't blow up two grain dryers and kill two people.

This is a story to keep us from going full Article 5. Which is a good thing, mind you.

A grain dryer can go off all on its own, no missile needed. 

[MillerEP 30,455]

 

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11,669]

4 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

A grain dryer can go off all on its own, no missile needed. 

but this one didnt

[MillerEP 30,455]

 

[Pescado_Rojo 19,416]

This thread moves too fast for me to go back and find it, but wasn't there a report a few days ago that Russia was down to it's last 100ish cruise missiles? Maybe that was a specific model? (Kalibrs?) 

[Rimbo 25,921]

15 minutes ago, MillerEP said:

 

☝️ I'm fine with people saying it was debris when it wasn't, but c'mon, man...

[ABSR 5,310]

10 minutes ago, Rimbo said:

I believe this hypothesis as much as I believe in the Tooth Fairy. Debris doesn't blow up two grain dryers and kill two people.

This is a story to keep us from going full Article 5. Which is a good thing, mind you.

The dust from grain in silos, dryers, etc can be highly combustible.  So not beyond reason that something metal coming in at a high velocity could create a spark or static electricity if it collided/ruptured an area with lots of grain or grain dust.

[956 Worldwide 34,705]

Here is the Slovak defense minister’s take. Mentions Article IV, strengthened air defense.  All likely, I’m most curious about what extra gear Ukraine will get. 
 

Quote

I can confirm the receipt of information about the impact of at least two rockets on the territory of Poland. According to the currently available information, it was probably an unplanned attack, but this does not change the fact that such an action is equally inexcusable! Unfortunately, the incident also claimed human lives. I express my sincere condolences to our Polish friends, neighbors and allies. Poland has our absolute support, we are in close contact to respond with further joint steps and measures.
 

What do I expect? I assume that the Poles, in accordance with Article 4, will request consultations with the allies. Subsequently, I believe that there will be a demand for further strengthening of the air defense of the eastern wing of NATO, including Slovakia. The Russians show how big a threat they are to the international community. We do not expect the activation of Article 5 for the time being.

What about Slovakia? We are in contact with the allies, we will wait for a response from Warsaw. It is an extremely fragile situation, we must not rush, but the reaction must be clear and common so that the Russians understand that such a situation cannot be repeated. I assume that the North Atlantic Council of NATO will soon meet about the incident. ▪️

Slovakia will continue to strengthen our border with Ukraine in order to protect our territory and prevent such incidents. Not only ours, but also the air defense systems deployed by our allies in Slovakia are on full alert. I informed the highest constitutional officials about the situation, we are in close contact, as well as with the Minister of Foreign Affairs, the intelligence services and other relevant authorities.

 

[SydneyCarton 48,081]

19 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

@BearSchlong’s kiddo was based out of Rzeszow, near the airport at a multipurpose sports/event arena.  (He’s mentioned the unit and I am familiar with the locale). The airport is a hub for NATO flights and has Patriot batteries on the ground.  There is a border crossing down the road near Przemysl that got a lot of a refugee traffic (and of course, all sorts of flow the other way). Early in the war there was a missile strike close enough to the border that it could be heard in the Rzeszow area, on barracks at a military facility. 
 

All this is long way off from where the strike happened— it’s about 180 km by road. 

I was thinking more in terms of insight on how he thinks Poland might respond. It's all anecdotal, but you're always curious. "After listening to the Poles while I was there, I wouldn't be shocked if they're flying over Ukraine by tomorrow" kind of a thing. 

[Deej 76,761]

Fuck it. Unclip Poland's leash. 

[MillerEP 30,455]

 

[utee94 15,817]

Ultimately, it doesn't really matter if it was intentional or not, if it was just debris or not.  Russia launched missiles that ended up killing Poles, within the borders of Poland.

The response can be, and should be, the same either way.  

Air defense should be established to protect all NATO countries from either direct attacks or fallout.  This should extend well into the borders of Ukraine because given Russia's demonstrated poor mastery of aim, there's no such thing as being "too careful."  

The diplomatic justification for this exists and is obvious and imminent. 

Edited November 15, 2022 by utee94

[956 Worldwide 34,705]

1 minute ago, SydneyCarton said:

I was thinking more in terms of insight on how he thinks Poland might respond. It's all anecdotal, but you're always curious. "After listening to the Poles while I was there, I wouldn't be shocked if they're flying over Ukraine by tomorrow" kind of a thing. 

The Poles are going to be thoughtful about this and are likely to use it to get as much as they can for Poland, by extension Ukraine as they are hard leaning on getting more stuff for them. 
 

I still think article IV is the most likely course of action, they will press for more (US) presence but the big push will be more stuff for Ukraine and more backfill for them.

I don’t see them getting over their skis with any sort of military operation. 

[Parliament 14,257]

Poland right now:

 

[MillerEP 30,455]

 

[956 Worldwide 34,705]

For Russia, this counts as deescalatory rhetoric. They’re denying that they even aimed anywhere near the area.  Giving anyone who wants a way out a reason not to respond. 
 

They are going to say this was a false flag/Ukrainian fuckup. 
 

 
 

 

[ABSR 5,310]

2 minutes ago, MillerEP said:

 

 

It is being reported that building a table the length of which Putin is requiring, along with constructing a building long enough to accommodate it, are causing the delays.

[The Dog 44,023]

 

[Celery Man 20,935]

21 minutes ago, ABSR said:

The dust from grain in silos, dryers, etc can be highly combustible.  So not beyond reason that something metal coming in at a high velocity could create a spark or static electricity if it collided/ruptured an area with lots of grain or grain dust.

is this replicable with cheeto dust

[ABSR 5,310]

1 minute ago, Celery Man said:

is this replicable with cheeto dust

You'd be a fool to try something like that!!

 

Let us know how it works out.

[Post Oak 20,210]

FWIW I've been reaching out to my Polish sources for the last hour and what I'm hearing is :

"Who are you? "How did you get my info" and "leave me alone" and "fuck your mother"

Still trying to put the pieces together.  I'll keep you posted.

 

Edited November 15, 2022 by Post Oak

[vtaenz 601]

IF it was intentional, would be a chicken shit way for Russia to try to draw in NATO so they could then lose to a coalition of countries and not just to Ukraine.

[MissingInAction 25,049]

4 minutes ago, Post Oak said:

FWIW I've been reaching out to my Polish sources for the last hour and what I'm hearing is :

"Who are you? "How did you get my info" and "leave me alone". 

 

I read that in Bobby Hills voice.

[Gengs1 2,583]

Time for planes and long range weapons 

[Chad Fuck 17,672]

2 minutes ago, vtaenz said:

IF it was intentional, would be a chicken shit way for Russia to try to draw in NATO so they could then lose to a coalition of countries and not just to Ukraine.

A glorious failing, a "Lost Cause" if you will, would certainly play to the Russian sense of victimhood. That is an exit strategy of a sort.  

 

[MillerEP 30,455]

 

[TexArcher 37,774]

7 minutes ago, Post Oak said:

FWIW I've been reaching out to my Polish sources for the last hour and what I'm hearing is :

"Who are you? "How did you get my info" and "leave me alone" and "fuck your mother"

Still trying to put the pieces together.  I'll keep you posted.

 

I slept with a girl whose last name had a "k" in it, so this hits close to home.

[Brisketexan 105,098]

9 minutes ago, Post Oak said:

FWIW I've been reaching out to my Polish sources for the last hour and what I'm hearing is :

"Who are you? "How did you get my info" and "leave me alone" and "fuck your mother"

Still trying to put the pieces together.  I'll keep you posted.

 

1 -- I went to Catholic school.  Unsurprisingly, a handful of kids from Polish families.  This being Texas in the 1970s, every one of them was nicknamed "Ski."

2 -- my favorite dad-joke is Polish based:

Didja hear about the new soccer stadium they built in Warsaw?  Yeah, there's a big problem with it . . . . . . .

. . . . . . every seat is behind a Pole.

 

That's the best threadjack I've got right now.  I'll try to do better next time.

[Gravy Train 974]

14 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

For Russia, this counts as deescalatory rhetoric. They’re denying that they even aimed anywhere near the area.  Giving anyone who wants a way out a reason not to respond. 
 

They are going to say this was a false flag/Ukrainian fuckup. 

 

Seems to me that Dobrotvirska TPP was targeted and these two missles went astray by 50km or less.

[Bevo 13,576]

1 hour ago, Ghost of LL said:

There's an interesting book out entitled How Wars End by Dan Reiter.  It posits that the traditional traditional view of war termination--that wars end when the uncertainty as to the balance of power is resolved through the verdict of the battlefield--is wrong.  It argues that the biggest determiner of when a war will end is whether the commitments made by both parties to end the war can be trusted.

If a party cannot trust the commitment made by its opponent not to reinitiate hostilities, then the war will not end.  An illustration of this is the difference between World War I and World War II.  The Entente could trust that Germany would not reinitiate hostilities in November 1918 because Germany was in a revolutionary state.  Its monarchy and government had collapsed and its army was in open mutiny.  So there was no chance it could restart the war, even if it wanted to.  In contrast, Germany in 1944-45 had broken ever peace agreement it had ever made, from Versailles to Munich.  There was no reason to believe that it would adhere to any commitments it might make in any armistice with the Allies.  So the only acceptable outcome was an absolute victory resulting in state destruction.

We're facing a similar problem with Russia.  Ukraine can't have any confidence that Russia would adhere to the terms of any war-ending agreement.  So it becomes real hard to see how they can reach a diplomatic solution. 

Sounds like we're coming up with a way to say that this wasn't an attack.  The missile was "shot down," and instead of falling out of the sky, it defied gravity and actually flew further than it would have on its planned trajectory.  Yeah, that's it.  That's the ticket.

Seems like we don't need to read the book if you can summarize it in 5 sentences. Which brings up another point. What kind of lawyer are you if it only takes 5 sentences to state your case?

[The Dog 44,023]

 

[Orange&White 5,523]

44 minutes ago, Pescado_Rojo said:

This thread moves too fast for me to go back and find it, but wasn't there a report a few days ago that Russia was down to it's last 100ish cruise missiles? Maybe that was a specific model? (Kalibrs?) 

I've been hearing since the third day of the war that russia was running out of missiles, each time more specific numbers were used, but here we are.

I guess they will eventually run out.

[MillerEP 30,455]

 

[SimonBolivar 10,958]

15 minutes ago, Bevo said:

Seems like we don't need to read the book if you can summarize it in 5 sentences. Which brings up another point. What kind of lawyer are you if it only takes 5 sentences to state your case?

You really only need to read the intro and conclusion to academic history books to get their purpose. The meat is there for things you're confused about or for the historian to debate a fine point. Predatory reading is great.

Edited November 15, 2022 by SimonBolivar

[Kyrie Eleison 9,312]

14 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

1 -- I went to Catholic school.  Unsurprisingly, a handful of kids from Polish families.  This being Texas in the 1970s, every one of them was nicknamed "Ski."

2 -- my favorite dad-joke is Polish based:

Didja hear about the new soccer stadium they built in Warsaw?  Yeah, there's a big problem with it . . . . . . .

. . . . . . every seat is behind a Pole.

 

That's the best threadjack I've got right now.  I'll try to do better next time.

[SquishMitten 10,403]

33 minutes ago, MillerEP said:

I've been wondering this for so long, I'm just going to ask. What's the fucking deal with the toilets? Has there been a mass shortage of toilets in Russia for an extended period? Are they super expensive? For someone willing to steal a toilet and haul it hundreds/thousands of miles, do they even have plumbing to make them work? Do they think they can just set them up in their outhouses and think they'll work automatically?

[The Dog 44,023]

 

[The Dog 44,023]

 

[Brisketexan 105,098]

5 minutes ago, SquishMitten said:

I've been wondering this for so long, I'm just going to ask. What's the fucking deal with the toilets? Has there been a mass shortage of toilets in Russia for an extended period? Are they super expensive? For someone willing to steal a toilet and haul it hundreds/thousands of miles, do they even have plumbing to make them work? Do they think they can just set them up in their outhouses and think they'll work automatically?

All I know is I was told that Russians don't take a dump without a plan....but apparently, a bunch of 'em regularly take dumps without an actual toilet.

[Brisketexan 105,098]

2 minutes ago, The Dog said:

 

From the comments, love me some Polandball:

[NotActuallyALonghorn 4,976]

I wonder how many defenestrations have taken place today in Russia?

Edited November 15, 2022 by NotActuallyALonghorn

[MissingInAction 25,049]

 

 

[Ghost of LL 15,531]

2 hours ago, SimonBolivar said:

Emory trash

 

 

Seriously though that's an interesting theory and one that makes some sense. I'm assuming his theory addresses the popular assumption that leaders were just making sure that they learned their lesson from WWI and now were requiring everything?

No, because that presupposes that there was a mistake in ending World War I.  

Germany wasn't a threat to violate its obligations under the armistice and the subsequent Versailles treaty when those were done.  And for the first 15 years, Germany performed its obligations.  It wasn't until a semi-revolutionary regime change that brought about Nazi rearmament and the Dochstosslegende that the balance of power and German willingness to uphold its commitments changed.  And that could not really have been foreseen in 1918.

The requirement for an absolutist end to the war in 1944-45 came from Allied leaders learning their lessons from 1938 (Munich for the British) and 1939 (the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact for the Soviets) that the Nazi regime couldn't be trusted to adhere to its war-avoidance commitments.

44 minutes ago, Bevo said:

Seems like we don't need to read the book if you can summarize it in 5 sentences. Which brings up another point. What kind of lawyer are you if it only takes 5 sentences to state your case?

A very good lawyer.  My entire job consists of (1) understanding dense and complicated subject matter and (2) then succinctly explaining it to a non-technical audience.

[Captainant 27,658]

[Neonmoon 38,129]

[ABSR 5,310]

30 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

No, because that presupposes that there was a mistake in ending World War I.  

Germany wasn't a threat to violate its obligations under the armistice and the subsequent Versailles treaty when those were done.  And for the first 15 years, Germany performed its obligations.  It wasn't until a semi-revolutionary regime change that brought about Nazi rearmament and the Dochstosslegende that the balance of power and German willingness to uphold its commitments changed.  And that could not really have been foreseen in 1918.

The requirement for an absolutist end to the war in 1944-45 came from Allied leaders learning their lessons from 1938 (Munich for the British) and 1939 (the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact for the Soviets) that the Nazi regime couldn't be trusted to adhere to its war-avoidance commitments.

A very good lawyer.  My entire job consists of (1) understanding dense and complicated subject matter and (2) then succinctly explaining it to a non-technical audience.

Russians helping the Germans break the Versaille treaty started in 1922 with the Rapallo treaty and it's secret provision where they created 4 military bases/factories inside Russia for Germans to use to design,  test and build military hardware as well as train men. 

"Representatives of Germany and the Soviet Union met during the Genoa Conference in Italy in 1922. On 16 Apr, the two nations came to an agreement in the Italian town of Rapallo which later formalized as the Treaty of Rapallo. The agreement noted that the two nations would renounce all territorial and monetary claims against each other as the result of the Treaty of Brest-Litovsk at the end of WW1, and the two nations were to engage in friendly relations. The agreement was viewed with alarm by the United Kingdom, France, Finland, Poland, and the Baltic states. On 29 Jul, a secret clause was added. Under this new clause, the Soviet Union was to provide heavy weapons and facilities for German military training, which was prohibited by the Treaty of Versailles; meanwhile, Germany was to conduct training for the Soviet military and to provide the Soviet Union with an annual payment. The Treaty of Rapallo was formally signed in Berlin, Germany on 5 Nov 1922."

https://ww2db.com/battle_spec.php?battle_id=237

 

The Russians have always been wanna' be Nazi's.  Kinda like aggy  Nazi's.

[UTGrad98 2,271]

Looks like my evening planned itself 

[NotActuallyALonghorn 4,976]

Looks like my plans to eat the birds won't be interrupted by nuclear holocaust after all.

[atomheartbevo 89,656]

5 hours ago, InkaUtexas said:

Why? They have always countered Russia in the Stan's and mountains. 

Turkey lost a lot of credibility with NATO’s members over their handling of Finland and Sweden’s applications.

2 hours ago, Orange&White said:

I've been hearing since the third day of the war that russia was running out of missiles, each time more specific numbers were used, but here we are.

I guess they will eventually run out.

Iran and North Korea will run out, and then Russia will run out.