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Eastwood

By Eastwood
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AUS-97HORN
AUS-97HORN

For the love of Christ woman,  stop posting the same fucking thing every 20 mins just to make your neurotic self feel better.     Bring something useful to the thread other than your inane babbli

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InkaUtexas
InkaUtexas

I volunteered today. Log/Admin role to replace people for 30-60 days. The operation is in the west, or should the Orcs win will be pulled back behind the NATO wall. Either way the humanitarian effort

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89408

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40 minutes ago, ShaggyBevo RIP said:

The question to me is is RU testing NATO resolve or trying to provoke NATO direct involvement as selling the home crowd RU was defeated by NATO/the decadent west is easier than explaining how UKR defeated RU.

I do not believe Putin would try and escalate things with NATO directly, and this would be a direct escalation.  I know his TV propagandists are pushing a fight with NATO, but I think starting a war with NATO is a good way for the Russian people to rise up, and Putin, even if he's living in an information bubble, understands the impact of NATO equipment in Ukrainian hands, as well as the lack of modern Russian hardware available for the fight in Ukraine.

Or to put it another way, if Russia could actually stand up to NATO in a conventional manner, those conventional weapons would have already been deployed to Ukraine, and Ukraine wouldn't be capturing T-62s from the Russians..

And Putin does not believe that NATO will invade first, given that he pulled troops out of Kalingrad and from along the borders including the Baltics, Finland, etc.

This feels like an aggy fuckup, like Russia was aiming for the power infrastructure just inside the Ukrainian border with Poland, because Russia needs that power line with the EU severed so that it's easier to starve and freeze the Ukrainian civilians.

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Parliament

Parliament 14128

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President Joe Biden said Wednesday it was “unlikely” that a missile that killed two in NATO-ally Poland was fired from Russia, but he pledged support for Poland’s investigation into what it had called a “Russian-made” missile.

Biden spoke after he convened an “emergency” meeting of the Group of Seven and NATO leaders in Indonesia Wednesday morning for consultations on the attack that killed two people in the eastern part of Poland near the Ukraine border.

“There is preliminary information that contests that,” Biden told reporters when asked if the missile had been fired from Russia. “It is unlikely in the lines of the trajectory that it was fired from Russia, but we’ll see.”

It was not immediately clear whether Biden was suggesting that the missile hadn’t been fired by Russia at all. Ukraine still maintains stocks of former Soviet and Russian-made weaponry, including the S-300 air-defense missile system.

 

https://apnews.com/article/g-20-summit-nato-biden-andrzej-duda-25e615909ba0d871d5092f5b3aec21c8

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FartingMonk

FartingMonk 3606

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3 minutes ago, Parliament said:

President Joe Biden said Wednesday it was “unlikely” that a missile that killed two in NATO-ally Poland was fired from Russia, but he pledged support for Poland’s investigation into what it had called a “Russian-made” missile.

Biden spoke after he convened an “emergency” meeting of the Group of Seven and NATO leaders in Indonesia Wednesday morning for consultations on the attack that killed two people in the eastern part of Poland near the Ukraine border.

“There is preliminary information that contests that,” Biden told reporters when asked if the missile had been fired from Russia. “It is unlikely in the lines of the trajectory that it was fired from Russia, but we’ll see.”

It was not immediately clear whether Biden was suggesting that the missile hadn’t been fired by Russia at all. Ukraine still maintains stocks of former Soviet and Russian-made weaponry, including the S-300 air-defense missile system.

 

https://apnews.com/article/g-20-summit-nato-biden-andrzej-duda-25e615909ba0d871d5092f5b3aec21c8

Wasn't fired from Russia just Russian troops in Belarus 

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Kwix

Kwix 2186

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3 hours ago, TexArcher said:

Possibly stupid question, but let's say that after this whole Article 4 chat tomorrow, when NATO tells Poland to calm their tits and we'll put up restricted airspace but we're not gonna start WWIII over this, there's still nothing stopping Poland from launching retaliatory airstrikes against Moscow or whatever else they see fit, right?

If Poland were to do this, I would imagine it makes it tougher to invoke Article 5 if Russia launches retaliatory retaliatory strikes.

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956 Worldwide

956 Worldwide 34422

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Looks like the Polish MFA summoned the Russian Ambassador. Very careful wording here, a “Russian-made” missile. Of course, all this is Russia’s fault and never would have happened if Russia wasn’t shooting at Ukraine. Ukraine can’t be expected to not intercept Russian missiles- air defense isn’t perfect, Russia is shooting close to Poland.

I think that Article 4 is more likely than not and that Ukraine is going to get some more gear they wanted. There’s momentum to get them on F-platform fighters, a lot of the issue has been the logistics and training. This may be the motivator to get that figured out.

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956 Worldwide

956 Worldwide 34422

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Possibly stupid question, but let's say that after this whole Article 4 chat tomorrow, when NATO tells Poland to calm their tits and we'll put up restricted airspace but we're not gonna start WWIII over this, there's still nothing stopping Poland from launching retaliatory airstrikes against Moscow or whatever else they see fit, right?

Besides the obvious political issues of a NATO state attacking Russia, there’s Polish capabilities.

Poland has no ballistic missiles and does not have strategic aviation. It has some guided missile frigates with the Harpoon suite and it has some F-16s that are multi role but configured primarily for air defense. I don’t know what’s in the arsenal for them, they may well have some air to surface missiles but even so, that is a tactical fighter. Moscow is off the table, Poland can’t reach it without flying over Belarus and a bunch of the most heavily defended airspace on earth.

In reality, the only thing reachable by them is some coastal areas, with Kaliningrad the juiciest target. But Kaliningrad is also bristling with air defense and nuclear capable Iskander ballistic missiles. Letting something fly there seriously risks the automatic “this is the big one” response.

NATO has a ways to go, but the general idea is that different countries bring different capabilities to the table. Poland is not one that’s expected to do long-range surgical strikes.
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AUS-97HORN

AUS-97HORN 11672

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 NATO is going with the understanding that it was a Ukrainian fired missile, but the ultimate blame lies with Russia.

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NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said that early investigations suggest a deadly strike in Poland on Tuesday was "likely" caused by a Ukrainian air defense missile.

"Our preliminary analysis suggests that the incident was likely caused by the Ukrainian air defense missile fired to defend Ukrainian territory against Russian cruise missile attacks," Stoltenberg said during a Wednesday news conference in Brussels. 

But let me be clear, this is not Ukraine's fault," he added. "Russia bears ultimate responsibility, as it continues its illegal war against Ukraine." 

"We have no indication that Russia is preparing offensive military actions against NATO," the alliance chief said.

The landing of a deadly missile in eastern Poland near the border with Ukraine on Tuesday marked the first time a NATO country had been directly hit during the conflict. Leaders at the G20 summit in Bali have since scrambled to diffuse the fallout from the incident.

Stoltenberg also said the missile incident demonstrates the war "continues to create dangerous situations" and that the conflict is "President [Vladimir] Putin's responsibility."

"I think this [missile incident] demonstrates the dangers are connected to the ongoing war in Ukraine, but hasn't changed our fundamental assessment of the threat against the NATO allies," he said. 

Stoltenberg said the investigation into the missile incident in Poland is ongoing and NATO will continue to monitor the situation "very closely." 

"We need to stay vigilant, calm and closely coordinated," he said. 

 

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Mother mopar

Mother mopar 3300

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Besides the obvious political issues of a NATO state attacking Russia, there’s Polish capabilities.

Poland has no ballistic missiles and does not have strategic aviation. It has some guided missile frigates with the Harpoon suite and it has some F-16s that are multi role but configured primarily for air defense. I don’t know what’s in the arsenal for them, they may well have some air to surface missiles but even so, that is a tactical fighter. Moscow is off the table, Poland can’t reach it without flying over Belarus and a bunch of the most heavily defended airspace on earth.

In reality, the only thing reachable by them is some coastal areas, with Kaliningrad the juiciest target. But Kaliningrad is also bristling with air defense and nuclear capable Iskander ballistic missiles. Letting something fly there seriously risks the automatic “this is the big one” response.

NATO has a ways to go, but the general idea is that different countries bring different capabilities to the table. Poland is not one that’s expected to do long-range surgical strikes.
You're correct Poland has 48 block 52 F-16 C/D aircraft. They are the most advanced F-16s in Europe. The US also flies block 52s as well out of Aviano which has 2 squadrons.

Poland's block 52s are equiped with JHMCS, Sniper ER pods, and armed with AIM-9X, AIM-120C, JSOW, and JDAMs.
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Parliament

Parliament 14128

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36 minutes ago, Mother mopar said:

You're correct Poland has 48 block 52 F-16 C/D aircraft. They are the most advanced F-16s in Europe.

Poland's block 52s are equiped with JHMCS, Sniper ER pods, and armed with AIM-9X, AIM-120C, JSOW, and JDAMs.

So Poland has seriously badass fighter jets.  Coulda just said that.  :)

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TexasEd

TexasEd 8064

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18 hours ago, Ghost of LL said:

No, because that presupposes that there was a mistake in ending World War I.  

Germany wasn't a threat to violate its obligations under the armistice and the subsequent Versailles treaty when those were done.  And for the first 15 years, Germany performed its obligations.  It wasn't until a semi-revolutionary regime change that brought about Nazi rearmament and the Dochstosslegende that the balance of power and German willingness to uphold its commitments changed.  And that could not really have been foreseen in 1918.

The requirement for an absolutist end to the war in 1944-45 came from Allied leaders learning their lessons from 1938 (Munich for the British) and 1939 (the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact for the Soviets) that the Nazi regime couldn't be trusted to adhere to its war-avoidance commitments.

A very good lawyer.  My entire job consists of (1) understanding dense and complicated subject matter and (2) then succinctly explaining it to a non-technical audience.

 

Just kidding.  I believe the ability to distill complex issues into the relevant points is an underrated skill.

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grazinhorn

grazinhorn 472

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8 minutes ago, maninblack said:

Now that we know it was Ukrainian missiles that hit Poland how does everyone feel?

Like with countries not named Russia things actually work - consultation, cooperation, etc. - instead of 100% straight up lies and war crimes?  

 

Edited by grazinhorn
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Newdoc

Newdoc 3429

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20 minutes ago, maninblack said:

Now that we know it was Ukrainian missiles that hit Poland how does everyone feel?

I "feel" like if Russian wasn't launching a barrage of missiles aimed at civilian infrastructure then the Ukranian missles would have never been launched in the first place.

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MillerEP

MillerEP 30339

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24 minutes ago, maninblack said:

Now that we know it was Ukrainian missiles that hit Poland how does everyone feel?

We actually still don't know that. Ukraine is still denying it is theirs. Either way though, it's still Russia's fault. Had Russia not been shooting missiles at Ukraine, then Ukraine wouldn't be launching anti-air. No missiles = no anti-air. Kind of like if somebody is robbing a bank, and a cop shoots and hits a bystander, the bank robber is still responsible for anything that occurred as a result of their actions. 

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