Is anything less than a Big 12 title next year acceptable?

[GreenspointTexas 9968]

Dont we lose 13-14 starters next year (if u include CJ and LJH)?

 

id be thrilled just hitting 10 wins next year, including the bowl game

Edited December 2, 2018 by GreenspointTexas

[gmr548 16695]

There are a lot of ways to arrive at not winning the conference. It's pretty hard to judge a football team in absolutes, so yes I'd say that there are versions of next season where not wining the conference is acceptable. I will say that going forward, as long as the B12 had this dumbass 1 v 2 rematch after a round robin schedule, I expect to be playing in the game more often than not.

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[BrazilHorn 6839]

I would like to see:

Beat LSU, Beat OU, Win Big 12

Texas will have Junior, 3rd year starting QB, Better OL play with a 2nd year under Hand, 3rd year under Herman which is typical peak year for a new coaching staff and WVU & OU are breaking in new QBs.

Anything less than this to me will be a disappointing result. This is the absolute last year Herman can peddle the "youth/over achieve" narrative.

Put up or shut up.

[Fozzz 152]

You could argue that Herman has more excuses next year given the limited depth Charlie left him.  Maybe Hand can work some magic and the offense will be good enough to overcome what will likely be a very rough season for the defense, but imo, we should brace ourselves for the possibility of a 7 or 8 win season.  Hell, you could argue that we were quite lucky to win 9 games this year (S&P+ has us at 7.7 wins).  

[gmr548 16695]

Dont we lose 13-14 starters next year?
 
id be thrilled just hitting 10 wins next year, including the bowl game

Offensively I think we're okay if LJH comes back. That makes Anderson the one offensive loss that I'm not sure we have a replacement that can be as good or better. Cosmi will be very good in the long run but may experience some growing pains at LT.

Defensively, I expect trouble.

Nelson and Charles were solid this year. Unpopular opinion, no Hegar is addition by subtraction. He hurts more than he helps. Especially the way we deploy him. We have some talented guys behind them - Wilbon, Christmas, Coburn at nose and Graham and Ossai (I think he moves to DE as he gets bigger) at end, but we will need someone to take a big step forward. We also need Roach to put it together in his last year. I think the starters can be average to above average, much like thus year, but we're only one or two injuries from real trouble.

LB is also an issue. Wheeler can be replaced easily but GJ will be very difficult to replace, much like we saw with Malik this year. I know we're bringing in a good haul of LBs this year, including a juco IIRC, but no one can be expected to fill Gary's shoes. It may be tough sledding in the front seven.

Secondary will probably look similar to this year. Some nice plays, a lot of WTF. I assume Jones comes back - he is what he is at this point. Sterns and Foster are budding stars. DD and Locke moving on is addition by subtraction. Boyd is a good player but we were trying to put a square peg in a round hole the way we used him. We have a lot if young talent at CB to replace them. Theoretically, they'll take their lumps next year but in 2020-21 we'll be in as good of shape there as you can be in this conference. I'm skeptical of that because our DB coaching looks pretty bad but maybe the seniors are just that stupid. We'll see next year.

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[kopp0e 1135]

As physical as UT played on yesterday, my thoughts are Texas has the parts in place for back-to-back XII conference championship game appearances...

[Fozzz 152]

We are going to miss Boyd next season.  There is no one on the roster with anything like his coverage skills.  He does a lot of dumb shit, but we asked him to do a lot every game.  

Edited December 2, 2018 by Fozzz

[Phoenix 65]

I don't think it's a question of acceptable or unacceptable, because to me it seems at this point like Herman is going to be here for a long time. My expectations are that Texas will be contending for the conference championship, and possibly even the playoff next year.

Edited December 2, 2018 by Phoenix

[TwiceHorn 32075]

12 hours ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

I wouldn’t tell too many people that.

Btw, hellraiser or silver spur?

Why would you equate hellraisers and silver spurs?

[ztejas 44226]

1 hour ago, Fozzz said:

If they were so replaceable, then they would have been replaced by younger guys who would have benefited tremendously from receiving those snaps. Just because they weren’t all-conference players doesn’t mean the guys behind them aren’t meaningfully worse options. 

This crazy thing happens during the offseason and bowl practices where younger players get better.

I know it's a hot take to claim that football players don't physically and mentally peak as teenagers, but that's just my two cents.

We just had a true freshman make first team all Big 12. Our best running back - when healthy - was a true freshman this year. Our punter is a true freshman. Our quarterback is a true sophomore. Without looking it up I believe we are retaining most of our offensive line. This is all on top of 15 verbal 4 stars that will be added to the mix - and I would be shocked if that number doesn't trend closer to 20 by February.

We aren't losing anything worse than every other team in the B12 that will hope to contend next season. We aren't 2 deep everywhere we need to be yet - but it's not like we are scraping the bottom of the barrel and playing 3 stars.

Even if we objectively aren't as good on defense we will be more likely to win 10 games by December simply as a function of our schedule.

 

[Fozzz 152]

Wait, bowl practices exist?  I had no idea.  This changes everything.  

[ztejas 44226]

5 minutes ago, ztejas said:

This crazy thing happens during the offseason and bowl practices where younger players get better.

I know it's a hot take to claim that football players don't physically and mentally peak as teenagers, but that's just my two cents.

We just had a true freshman make first team all Big 12. Our best running back - when healthy - was a true freshman this year. Our punter is a true freshman. Our quarterback is a true sophomore. Without looking it up I believe we are retaining most of our offensive line. This is all on top of 15 verbal 4 stars that will be added to the mix - and I would be shocked if that number doesn't trend closer to 20 by February.

We aren't losing anything worse than every other team in the B12 that will hope to contend next season. We aren't 2 deep everywhere we need to be yet - but it's not like we are scraping the bottom of the barrel and playing 3 stars.

Even if we objectively aren't as good on defense we will be more likely to win 10 games by December simply as a function of our schedule.

 

Tried to edit - we are graduating more OL than I thought. I still don't think we will be markedly worse in that area, however.

[ztejas 44226]

4 minutes ago, Fozzz said:

Wait, bowl practices exist?  I had no idea.  This changes everything.  

Are you actually evaluating the depth chart and recruiting commits or just running your mouth?

Which team in the B12 next season is going to leap us? TCU? 

[ztejas 44226]

7 hours ago, Homesickhorn said:

I’m in agreement with almost everything in your post other than your last paragraph if you’re referring to Georgia. I would hate for that matchup at this point, but it’s looking like it’s going to be the case.

(shhh don't tell anyone - I'm nervous about it too)

Hook em!

[Fozzz 152]

15 minutes ago, ztejas said:

Are you actually evaluating the depth chart and recruiting commits or just running your mouth?

Which team in the B12 next season is going to leap us? TCU? 

That would be a fairly difficult prediction to make.  I'm commenting on what we can realistically expect in terms of production next season.  In terms of production, we were around an eight win team this season that lucked into an extra win.  As most people saw coming, our defense got substantially worse this season but that decline in performance was more than made up for by the increase in performance from our offense.  Next season our defense will likely get even worse, so we will likely need to have an elite offense next year to protect it if we wish to improve upon 2018. I'm skeptical that our offensive line will be good enough to provide an elite unit, particularly given that we lose three starters including our LT, although I wouldn't be surprised if it's a top 20 if CJ and LJH do not leave early.   

I think it's more meaningful to think about the team's performance in those terms rather than W-L because a lot of luck goes into W-L and our coaches cannot directly control what happens at the other Big 12 schools.  

Edited December 2, 2018 by Fozzz

[ztejas 44226]

5 minutes ago, Fozzz said:

That would be a fairly difficult prediction to make.  I'm commenting on what we can realistically expect in terms of production next season.  In terms of production, we were around an eight win team this season that lucked into an extra win.  As most people saw coming, our defense got substantially worse this season but that decline in performance was more than made up for by the increase in performance from our offense.  Next season our defense will likely get even worse, so we will likely need to have an elite offense next year to protect it if we wish to improve upon 2018. I'm skeptical that our offensive line will be good enough to provide an elite unit, particularly given that we lose three starters including our LT, although I wouldn't be surprised if it's a top 20 if CJ and LJH do not leave early.   

I think it's more meaningful to think about the team's performance in those terms rather than W-L because a lot of luck goes into W-L and our coaches cannot directly control what happens at the other Big 12 schools.  

The only thing you are addressing is who's leaving. The players that aren't leaving are basically guaranteed to get better. The culture will continue to progress. Herman will have a better hold on HIS position. These things matter. There is a ton of nuance and writing on the wall that you are choosing to ignore. 

Our kicker, punter, best defensive player, and best RB going into next season will all be true sophomores. If you want to ignore that go ahead.

We are a 9 win team because we won 9 games this season. We could have been an 11 win team. 9 wins should be the floor for next season if you take a step back and consider the big picture.

[Machinator 32103]

Haven't read the whole thread.

We lose 8 starters on defense - our entire defensive line, both ILBs, our starting corners and the nickel back. In some cases we're replacing them with physical upgrades but it's an unknown how much better they'll be off the bat - Thompson (maybe Foster?) at nickel, Floyd/Dele at Mac. No matter how much we bitch about Kris Boyd, we will see growing pains with Cook/Boyce/Green next year at corner, and the Big 12 is brutal for inexperienced defensive backs - just ask Caden Sterns from midseason onwards. Linebacker is a complete mystery. DL has a lot of pieces, but no obvious breakout candidate like Omenihu this season. 

On offense, we have three starters on the offensive line to replace. Again, we have potential physical talent upgrades (Imade, Okafor, and Angilau are the candidates that stand out right now), but how will they play when the lights come on? At the outside skill positions and slot WR, we should be fine, but we need a legitimate RB2 behind Ingram, and one of the TEs on the roster needs to develop into a true blocking/receiving threat. This should be a top 30 unit at minimum, though. The staff has their work cut out between now and NSD2, as well as in the grad transfer market.

This will be another high-variance team because of roster turnover. I think the floor is 8 wins, the ceiling is playoffs. Third place in the Big 12 would probably be a disappointment, and below that is a failure.

The goal should be to play in Dallas at the end of the regular season next year. Beyond that depends on how this roster evolves and what our matchup is.

Edited December 2, 2018 by Machinator

[Fozzz 152]

You expect the defense to not get markedly worse next season after losing eight starters?  How many competent LBs will be  on the defense next season?  If you think the front seven was often a shit show this year just wait until next season. 

[ATLLonghorn 1113]

I'm curious given the new redshirt rules if we'll see guys who haven't played much or at all get some reps in the bowl game if they have good weeks of practice leading up to the game. I don't see a downside of it. 

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12301]

1 hour ago, TwiceHorn said:

Why would you equate hellraisers and silver spurs?

Because I drink too much?

[UTDD 362]

13 hours ago, TexArcher said:

Hypothetical for next year: 

We beat LSU.  We beat OU.  We stumble against an improved TCU team, but we win the rest.  We go to the CCG and lose to WVU.  We get an invite to a huge bowl and beat Pac-12 champ Washington or SEC runner-up Georgia.

So we don't win the conference, but we go 12-2 and finish the year ranked #4.

If that ain't an acceptable season, we're gonna be a miserable bunch just about all of the time.

I can buy that -- I'm not miserable this year to be frank.  I just hope long-term our consistent performance metric is to always be right there with OU for the conference, a perennial 10 win team, and some years get a little lucky in a game or two or a little extra talent with a generational player (Young example) that can take a great team that can win 10+ games to an elite one that can win it all.  I'm not optimistic enough to believe we can just dominate like Alabama or even Clemson's recent run at this program quite yet.

[ClubWhatever 12292]

we still don’t have enough good  beef 

[chase25 2048]

11 hours ago, Fozzz said:

You expect the defense to not get markedly worse next season after losing eight starters?  How many competent LBs will be  on the defense next season?  If you think the front seven was often a shit show this year just wait until next season. 

Well for some reason, every year I see Alabama, Clemson, OU, Georgia, etc... not drop off. May be comparing apples to oranges, but it would be best to wait until at least the spring game to make any rash judgments. Guys like Floyd could come in and be the next Malik. Coburn could step up and be the next Poona Ford/Malcom Brown. Ossai, Graham, and Roach could all be plus additions, I don't think anybody can be worse than Hager. Hager played more because he was an emotional leader and Senior, not because guys behind him weren't better.

I remember seeing similar comments after 2007 when we lost most of the last remnants of the National Title team, coming off a 2nd straight 10-3 season, Colt had a very poor Sophomore campaign, and many wondered how we could get better.

 

[Valmy77 13626]

11 hours ago, Fozzz said:

You expect the defense to not get markedly worse next season after losing eight starters?  How many competent LBs will be  on the defense next season?  If you think the front seven was often a shit show this year just wait until next season. 

We gave up almost 400 yards per game. If we are going to be markedly worse what can we expect? 500 yards? 600 yards?