2019 Baseball Hall of Fame Thread

[formermav43 4,607]

On 12/8/2018 at 8:31 PM, runthebone said:

I saw some analysis that was pretty convincing that taking offensive era into account, Smith was much better than Vizquel.

 

Anyway, Rivera really should be unanimous.  

The unanimous/first ballot/ etc. stuff is pretty stupid. But if Ken Griffey, Jr. wasn’t unanimous, I don’t see how a guy who pitched 70 innings a season is.

[Hank Kingsley 21,598]

Baines in the HOF is an embarrassment.  No way to sugarcoat it and it's a bad look. Hopefully HB will be the outlier everyone bitches about, instead of a reason to start adding more non-HOF caliber players to make up for the mistake. 

 

 

[shnsajax 3,605]

So is Baines now the 3rd #1 overall pick to go to the HOF? Griffey, Chipper, and now Baines.

[tx 3 putt 78,470]

DId the Russians hack HoF voting ?

[henrygandorf 29,223]

3 hours ago, Hank Kingsley said:

Baines in the HOF is an embarrassment.  No way to sugarcoat it and it's a bad look. Hopefully HB will be the outlier everyone bitches about, instead of a reason to start adding more non-HOF caliber players to make up for the mistake. 

 

 

yup.  i would rather guys with a shorter spurt of hof-caliber play than a guy who played into his 40's and put up respectable, but not even close to hof level career stats (didn't reach the "magic" numbers of hits/hr).  when i was growing up and watched guys like dale murphy and don mattingly, i felt like i was watching hall-of-famers.  those guys were, in fact, the best position players in their leagues for a short stretch.  baines never was. 

btw, we're not alone on this.  when i googled his name + baseball reference, it brings up headlines from the washington post, sports illustrated, etc, which call his election an "embarrassment" and that it's "lowering the bar".  nobody is proud of this.

[henrygandorf 29,223]

4 hours ago, Hank Chinaski said:

Yeah, I don't see any justification for Barry Bonds not being elected. He could have retired before the '99 season (when he allegedly began using PEDs) and he was a HOFer. Then he apparently started using and became significantly better than all the other PED users. So deduct 20% of his value from those last few seasons if you want to and he's still an MVP-level player. 

I get wanting to discount his numbers for his 2001-2004 seasons, because they were nuts. But he's one of the 10-12 best players in history, regardless. 

under that logic, a bank robber who was already rich before he started stealing money shouldn't have to go to jail, right?  i mean, why should the rules apply to rich people who just wanted to be a little bit richer?

i've had this exact argument on hornfans and shaggy, so why not here.  if the pinnacle of professional sports is to be in the hall of fame, and you knew using steroids could possibly keep you out of the hall of fame, and your career numbers suggest you're already on the proper trajectory, then why fucking use?  or, better put, bonds knew what he was potentially giving up when he started using, and he made his choice.  he broke records, he got paid tens of millions, and he's not in the hall.  he can fucking deal with it.

fringe mlb players who would be selling mufflers, but started using peds and became professional level players - now that i can get behind.  but if the argument is "he was a hall-of-famer before he started using", then there's your answer.  he had way more to lose, and way more of a reason not to juice, but he did it anyway.  he should not be rewarded for this.  cherry picking parameters and portions of someone's career sounds like aggie logic right there.

[Beau Vine 55,824]

29 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

if the pinnacle of professional sports is to be in the hall of fame, and you knew using steroids could possibly keep you out of the hall of fame, and your career numbers suggest you're already on the proper trajectory, then why fucking use? 

There's the problem with your argument.  Guys had been using steroids and other PEDs for years -- guys who were in the Hall of Fame.  

When Ball Four was published, no one was particularly up in arms about how prevalent PEDs were in major league clubhouses -- the bigger controversy was that Bouton would write about it and "destroy the sanctity of the clubhouse."

Hell, when that writer printed his article about McGwire using Andro, he was the one who caught flack, not McGwire.

Verducci wrote about steroid use and no one cared. 

There was really no reason for anyone to think that steroid use could keep you out of the Hall, because for years, no one cared.  

 

And then the records started to get broken, and all of a sudden, people cared.  

 

Like I've said before, the problem was PED use.  The problem was that the medicine got too good.  

[WBT 20,884]

Holy shit, Harold Baines!?!  The following non-HOF RF's have higher career WAR:

Larry Walker, Dwight Evans, Reggie Smith, Shoeless Joe*, Gary Sheffield, Bobby Abreu, Ichiro, Sammy Sosa, Bobby Bonds, Jack Clark, Brian Giles, Rusty Staub, J.D. Drew, Rocky Colavito, Tony Oliva, Dixie Walker, Jose Canseco, Darryl Strawberry, Felipe Alou, Mike Tiernan, Ken Singleton, Bill Nicholson, Ben Chapman, Tim Salmon, David Justice, Babe Herman, Dave  Parker, Reggie Sanders, Jesse Barfield, Giancarlo Stanton, Paul O'neill, Magglio Ordonez, and Juan Gonzalez.

A whole bunch of guys I haven't heard of, a bunch of average, and a guy who promised a cancer kid to catch a ball in his hat.  And over half of Baines's ABs were as a DH!

 

[henrygandorf 29,223]

28 minutes ago, Beau Vine said:

Like I've said before, the problem wasn't PED use.  The problem was that the medicine got too good.  

this right here, and i agree.  "ped" is also a broad label and so many different types of drugs fall under the umbrella.  once they moved on from greenies/uppers and all the other shit that pretty much every other guy was using day after day, and it became its own industry - having your own "trainer" mixing up god knows what (moving from pill-popping to injections and weirdo balms) + whatever workout program - then it became hard to ignore.

i also think back in the 60's-80's (and earlier), there were a lot more "enhancing" substances that were recreational (like rock raines) or substances that could help someone over 30 bounce back from injuries quicker and continue their careers vs the sosa/bonds/mcgwire situation that was transforming bodies and sending balls over the wall, which i think belongs in its own category.

that all said, if you had told me that somebody who played in the 50's and was having a ~hof career, but then started using whatever the equivalent was, and his career numbers went all crazy, i would have the same criticism of that player.  shit, if guys like mickey mantle had access in the 60's to what they had in the 90's, their careers wouldn't have fallen apart at age 33. 

apples and oranges, times change, and stuff.

[Goo Punch 4,275]

Barnes getting in- wow. I was shocked when I saw that. I believe i heard that the highest % of votes he ever got was something like 6.1%? Something incredibly low like that. This is a baffling decision. The only thing I heard is that he played for several of the people who made this decision. If so, that's sketchy. 

[Hank Chinaski 6,345]

1 hour ago, henrygandorf said:

under that logic, a bank robber who was already rich before he started stealing money shouldn't have to go to jail, right?  i mean, why should the rules apply to rich people who just wanted to be a little bit richer?

i've had this exact argument on hornfans and shaggy, so why not here.  if the pinnacle of professional sports is to be in the hall of fame, and you knew using steroids could possibly keep you out of the hall of fame, and your career numbers suggest you're already on the proper trajectory, then why fucking use?  or, better put, bonds knew what he was potentially giving up when he started using, and he made his choice.  he broke records, he got paid tens of millions, and he's not in the hall.  he can fucking deal with it.

fringe mlb players who would be selling mufflers, but started using peds and became professional level players - now that i can get behind.  but if the argument is "he was a hall-of-famer before he started using", then there's your answer.  he had way more to lose, and way more of a reason not to juice, but he did it anyway.  he should not be rewarded for this.  cherry picking parameters and portions of someone's career sounds like aggie logic right there.

OK - where do we draw lines then? Was it OK to use amphetamines like guys have done forever? There is no question those can be considered PEDs. Bonds was never suspended or in anything but good standing with MLB. 

I get your point, and don't disagree fundamentally - but because we can never know who did what (except for the guys who tested positive), the extent to which they did it, or how much any of it helped anyone...we should go by the numbers. And the numbers suggest that Bonds was head and shoulders above his peers for over 15 years, steroids or no steroids. 

[henrygandorf 29,223]

then you need to decide on your argument.

either "everyone was doing it" or "he was a hall-of-famer before he started using".

the first one kinda makes me want him to get in with everyone else.  the second one says he had a choice, he made it, and now he needs to live with it.

the problem with the first one, is that you can't let him in without letting mcgwire, sosa, clemens, palmeiro, etc all in too.  or are we going by suspensions?  or admitting to congress?  or getting caught lying to congress?  see, it's a slippery slope. 

my original post was really just responding with why i hate the second argument, and why it actually makes him less deserving in my eyes.  he didn't need to use to be great.  he chose to, because he was a greedy, self-centered asshole.  which is totally fine.  i know a lot of greedy, self-centered assholes and they're not in the hall of fame either.

[Hank Chinaski 6,345]

3 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

then you need to decide on your argument.

either "everyone was doing it" or "he was a hall-of-famer before he started using".

the first one kinda makes me want him to get in with everyone else.  the second one says he had a choice, he made it, and now he needs to live with it.

the problem with the first one, is that you can't let him in without letting mcgwire, sosa, clemens, palmeiro, etc all in too.  or are we going by suspensions?  or admitting to congress?  or getting caught lying to congress?  see, it's a slippery slope. 

my original post was really just responding with why i hate the second argument, and why it actually makes him less deserving in my eyes.  he didn't need to use to be great.  he chose to, because he was a greedy, self-centered asshole.  which is totally fine.  i know a lot of greedy, self-centered assholes and they're not in the hall of fame either.

Agree with this, and it's what I hate about the "PED guys." There isn't really an answer. It drove me nuts, as an Astros fan, that Bagwell was consistently lumped in with those guys with absolutely no evidence of anything. Does that mean he was always clean? I have no idea. But that's the point - what is our threshold of evidence for disallowing entrance? What numbers do we dismiss? How do we quantify how much specific PEDs actually help? 

I don't have really have an answer. My thought with Bonds is that he was always so much better than everyone else that he is a HOFer. But to your point, it irks me that he seemingly used because he was the preeminent generational talent of my generation, and he ruined it in a way. 

[Hank Chinaski 6,345]

Regarding Baines, I kinda feel bad for the guy at this point - his induction has been mostly ridiculed since the news broke. 

[dcar00 14,905]

harold baines is in. whew, was worried it might not happen.  This is good.  now we can get to work on Jeff Burroughs because apparently he needs to be in before Dwight Evans and Dave Parker 

[dcar00 14,905]

13 hours ago, pepper brooks said:

not true.  there was proof in court he used steroids.  They couldn't prove that he knew he was getting steroids, but there was proof of steroid use.  

the cream and the clear, right?

[Pato del Muerto 53,333]

Now seems as good a time as any to start my Gary ward for hof letter writing campaign. 

[runthebone 8,322]

4 hours ago, henrygandorf said:

i know a lot of greedy, self-centered assholes and they're not in the hall of fame either.

No, but we had to move from shaggybevo to shaggytexas to surlyhorns, so give us a fucking break. 

[Beau Vine 55,824]

Jayson Stark is this year's winner of the Spink Award, which means that he'll be inducted into the writer's wing of the HoF.

[TexArcher 38,816]

If I had the time, I could come up with 100+ guys who aren't in the HoF who deserve it more than Harold Baines.  What a farce.

[Goo Punch 4,275]

5 hours ago, TexArcher said:

If I had the time, I could come up with 100+ guys who aren't in the HoF who deserve it more than Harold Baines.  What a farce.

Larry Walker is a good benchmark for me. He's always been one of my favorite players, but i've never thought that was HOFZ material- I've always considered him an exemplary candidate for the Hall of Very Good. A few more peak years for Larry would have done it for me, but alas his dominance didn't last quite long enough for me to cal him HOF worthy. So, if I think that Larry Walker is more deserving than you (and i definitely think that about Harold Baines), then there's no way I can call you a HOFer...until now.

[TexArcher 38,816]

I mean, yeah.  Here they are: 

Walker - .313, 383 HR, 1311 RBI, 230 SB

Baines - .289, 384 HR, 1628 RBI, 34 SB

And Baines had about 3,000 more career AB!  If Walker had gotten to Baines' AB total, Walker would be in the 500 HR club.

Walker won 3 batting titles, a HR title, and an MVP.  In that MVP season, Walker hit .366 with 49 HR, 130 RBI, and 33 SB.  That is one of the greatest seasons in history.

They're not even close.

Edited December 12, 2018 by TexArcher

[Goo Punch 4,275]

1 hour ago, TexArcher said:

I mean, yeah.  Here they are: 

Walker - .313, 383 HR, 1311 RBI, 230 SB

Baines - .289, 384 HR, 1628 RBI, 34 SB

And Baines had about 3,000 more career AB!  If Walker had gotten to Baines' AB total, Walker would be in the 500 HR club.

Walker won 3 batting titles, a HR title, and an MVP.  In that MVP season, Walker hit .366 with 49 HR, 130 RBI, and 33 SB.  That is one of the greatest seasons in history.

They're not even close.

With Baines' ABs Walker would be a career .300 hitter with over 500 bombs, 2,000 RBI, and probably 400+ stolen bases, to go along with his MVP, his three batting titles, and his 7 gold gloves. This isn't even close. Very very puzzling decision here. This is the HOF's Armando Gallaraga perfect game flub.

[henrygandorf 29,223]

find a comp without a coors advantage. shouldn’t be that hard. 

[Goo Punch 4,275]

23 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

find a comp without a coors advantage. shouldn’t be that hard. 

Larry Walker was Hall of Very Good material before he started hitting at altitude.

[formermav43 4,607]

5 hours ago, henrygandorf said:

find a comp without a coors advantage. shouldn’t be that hard. 

There’s one from this year’s ballot in Lance Berkman:

.293, 366 HR, 1234 RBI.

Not a base stealer like Walker, but still had 86. And he walked a ton, an OBP of .406 compared to .356 to Baines. And he had 3,500 fewer career at bats. Like Walker, imagine his counting numbers with comparable ABs? He also was top 10 in MVP voting 6 times, with a high of 3rd (twice), vs Baines’ 2 top 10 finishes, with a high of 9th.

And virtually no one on this thread thinks Berkman is a Hall of Famer.

Edited December 12, 2018 by formermav43

[TexArcher 38,816]

Harold Baines is basically Fred McGriff with over a thousand extra AB and over a hundred fewer homers.

And Fred McGriff is brought up frequently as the ultimate borderline HoF guy.

Ridiculous.

 

[spystud13 2,371]

Oh boy. 

 

 

[Hank Chinaski 6,345]

17 minutes ago, spystud13 said:

Oh boy. 

 

 

Wow...La Russa somehow managed to make Russo seem reasonable. That's not easy to do. 

[henrygandorf 29,223]

11 hours ago, Goo Punch said:

Larry Walker was Hall of Very Good material before he started hitting at altitude.

disagree.  quality player, sure.  five tool.  but not nearly what he started doing in colo.

[Scraps 13,745]

Lol.. GAME WINNING RBIs!!!!

 

Alex Bregman welcome to the HOF

 

 

[Goo Punch 4,275]

2 hours ago, henrygandorf said:

disagree.  quality player, sure.  five tool.  but not nearly what he started doing in colo.

i was joking. "barry bonds was a HOFer before he started juicing."

[shnsajax 3,605]

There’s one from this year’s ballot in Lance Berkman:
.293, 366 HR, 1234 RBI.
Not a base stealer like Walker, but still had 86. And he walked a ton, an OBP of .406 compared to .356 to Baines. And he had 3,500 fewer career at bats. Like Walker, imagine his counting numbers with comparable ABs? He also was top 10 in MVP voting 6 times, with a high of 3rd (twice), vs Baines’ 2 top 10 finishes, with a high of 9th.
And virtually no one on this thread thinks Berkman is a Hall of Famer.

Berkman had a career WAR over 65, Rolen over 70 and will struggle to get in. Baines was around a 38.


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[JimmyHoffa 1,188]

On 12/10/2018 at 9:52 PM, Hank Chinaski said:

Regarding Baines, I kinda feel bad for the guy at this point - his induction has been mostly ridiculed since the news broke. 

 

My dad and uncle are White Sox fans and I went to several Sox games growing up in the middle of the Baines era. He was never a super star just a really consistent and good hitter and average OF for a long time. Sorry give me 10-12 years of one of the best players at a position not a lifetime achievement award for a guy like Baines. 

Throw in the fact that Baines has always been really quiet and not a Rah Rah guy it does make me feel bad for him that he isn't getting killed because he got in. 

I don't think he deserves to be in but there are more guys in the HOF less deserving then him. That said I would have thought a guy like Dave Parker would have got in before Baines did. 

[JimmyHoffa 1,188]

I would put Walker in before Baines

Walker hit .322 his last year for the Expos

.298 in his half a year with the Blue Jays

and .289 his last year in the league with the Cards

 

[henrygandorf 29,223]

if they want to avoid future baines-type drama, then they need some sort of % minimum to even be considered.  sometimes a guy can end up with 40-50% of the vote, but then a few great classes come in, and he's a victim of bad timing.  baines topped out at what, 6%?  yeah, not ok with that.

and fuck larussa.  that interview only reinforced what most people thought.  when you get that defensive, that's an issue.  it's a bad look for baseball people (players/managers) to start telling journalists/beat writers that they should back off because they just don't understand.

[Beau Vine 55,824]

Dave Stewart continues to say stupid shit.  It blows my mind that this guy was put in charge of running an entire organization.

Quote

LAS VEGAS, Nev. — The criticism of Harold Baines’ surprise election to the Hall of Fame was in many cases over-the-top and in some cases embarrassingly immature. In a rush to destroy the decision of the Veterans Committee, some critics also destroyed Baines, who didn’t deserve that. It’s debatable whether he merits inclusion among baseball’s ultra elites, but a couple greats who faced him applauded that call, fighting back against the critics, many of whom were overzealous. 

“He hit like .400 off me. He wore me out, so I thought he was a great player,” said Hall of Famer Jack Morris. “In my experience he is a Hall of Famer.” Dave Stewart, who won 20 games four straight years, said, “This guy could (bleeping) hit. And it didn’t matter who was pitching. That’s what makes a Hall of Famer.” 

Morris wasn't quite right about the stats, but Baines did have impressive at-bats against him; Baines' career line against the longtime ace was .294/.380/.800 with three home runs, 19 RBI and 17 walks, with just 19 strikeouts in 137 at-bats.

Stewart went on to name a couple others who are favored by the new crowd he doesn’t see as Hall of Famers. But as for Baines, he does see him as Cooperstown worthy. Baines was painted by critics as a total product of longevity when the reality is that no one who isn’t really good gets to play 22 years. In those more than two decades, Baines had more than 2,800 hits, more than 1,600 RBI and made six All-Star teams. 

 

I was in the vast majority who didn’t vote for Baines in the BBWAA tallies, when he peaked at six percent. But that doesn’t mean he didn’t have a fantastic career. He did. Perhaps the Veterans Committee is a little more lenient than the writers. And perhaps they bring a perspective of an older crowd. Perhaps that isn’t so terrible. The writers have been too tough (a lower percentage of players from the second half the 20th century have gotten in) and it isn’t so bad to allow the more experienced group to have their say. “I get what the issues are, especially guys stepping through the crack,” Morris said. “But that’s why you have second opinions.” 

In one article condemning the vote — and Baines — the author even got in a shot at Morris, a favorite whipping boy of the new-stat guys (I voted for Morris 15 times out of 15 and he won a majority of votes his last years on the BBWAA ballot before the Veterans Committee voted him in), saying that Baines’ claim to fame, like Morris’, was a product of “durability.” Morris said durability isn’t such a bad thing, and I agree. 

But my real issue there is that anyone old enough to have seen Morris’ career would understand that what he was known for was racking up wins — and big wins — and complete games as the No. 1 pitcher on three World Series winners, including 1991, when he won Game 7 with the most memorable pitching performances in modern history. 

 

Perhaps Baines was fortunate to have a committee stocked with folks who were key to his career — White Sox owner Jerry Reinsdorf, former White Sox manager Tony La Russa and former Orioles GM Pat Gillick — and that is an issue with such a small group making these calls. No doubt that trio persuaded many of the others to favor Baines. But that doesn’t change the fact he was an extremely good player for a very long period of time, one who was more appreciated in his day, and by his peers, than by the WAR counters. 

“If you didn’t play with him,” Stewart said, “you couldn’t have any idea how good a hitter he was.”

 

[Goo Punch 4,275]

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/baineha01.shtml#1982-1996-sum:batting_standard

During his best years (1982-1996) he averaged 20 HR, 84 RBI, 68 R, 148 H, 2 SB. Yeah, that just screams "Hall of Fame". 

[Goo Punch 4,275]

Six All Star games in 22 years. As far as I can tell he led the league in one category one time in his 22 years.






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[Guest Lobo]

Shit, I'm starting to feel bad for Harold Baines.  Sure he played for two of my least favorite teams from childhood (our cross-town rivals-White Sox and Oakland).  We all know the count on the guy but he was nice enough when he played and didn't scream "look at me" during the voting years...but he's about five minutes away from being turned into a negative Hall of Fame verb at this point.

"McGriff isn't hall worthy, but he'll probably Baines his way in on the last ballot."

"Walker did most of his damage at Coors Field, still Bainesed his way into the Hall though on just longevity." 

"This guy's peak years just weren't up to Hall standards, but the new Bainesian metrics are just so muddied nowadays."  

[runthebone 8,322]

On 12/12/2018 at 9:51 PM, shnsajax said:

 

Berkman had a career WAR over 65, Rolen over 70 and will struggle to get in. Baines was around a 38.


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Trout is 64.3 after his age 26 season!

[Pato del Muerto 53,333]

45 minutes ago, runthebone said:

Trout is 64.3 after his age 26 season!

He’s a bit of an outlier, no?

[Goo Punch 4,275]

2 hours ago, Pato del Muerto said:

He’s a bit of an outlier, no?

the fact that he'll have twice the WAR of Baines before he turns 28 says a lot. 

[spystud13 2,371]

What if you’re Lee Smith? About 3 people outside of his family even realize he got in too. 

[Beau Vine 55,824]

.

Here's the first projection from Nate Silver:

[henrygandorf 29,223]

berkman rocking the 4%.  that's right near the baines sweet spot.  he's golden.

[Pato del Muerto 53,333]

Pettitte and mussina- there’s not enough difference between them to justify that vote spread, to me. At least based on traditional stats. 

Mussina does have about 20 war more, so there is a difference there with the more advanced analytics. 

 

[cafe society 2,902]

2 hours ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Pettitte and mussina- there’s not enough difference between them to justify that vote spread, to me. At least based on traditional stats. 

Mussina does have about 20 war more, so there is a difference there with the more advanced analytics. 

 

Well... other than Mussina's  24 career shutouts to Pettitte's 4. Or Mussina's 57 complete games to Pettitte's 26.  Their career 162 game avg  record was 17-10. Both of them. Mussina has better ERA, WHIP W-L% despite pitching for ten years in Baltimore, which was largely horrible.  That fact will be a recurring theme.  Mussina pitching for 10 years in Baltimore, which usually fielded shitty teams.  I can go on, Pettitte is inferior to Mussina in every way, which isn't to demean Pettitte, but I get sick and tired of the ignorance surrounding Mike Mussina, who was an amazing pitcher.  He spent his ENTIRE FUCKING CAREER pitching in the treacherous AL East.  A lot of it for craptastic ballclubs in Baltimore.  Mussina is, in point of fact, more qualified for the HOF than casual fan darling Tom Glavine, who loaded up on a weak sister division most of his career and benefited immensely from Greg Maddux creating a new strike zone.

[spystud13 2,371]

Dude, he thinks Trout is overpaid. Not the best baseball IQ. 

[Pato del Muerto 53,333]

Mussina is a hofer, and he’s better than pettitte. Neither of those points were in contention in my post. I just don’t see such a wide gap between them such that one gets in while the other might not get enough votes to stay on the ballot.