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CFB Bowls

Wally Pryor

By Wally Pryor
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SDG

SDG 3,336

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2 minutes ago, Cameltoe said:

Thanks. I'm thinking Miami gets the win though because they at least finished their season on a nice win while Wisconsin got blown out by Minnesota at home on their last game, plus nothing about Wisconsin's results this year across their schedule makes me think "good team." The cold weather thing, yeah, dunno, i think maybe the better team is going to win regardless of weather.

What you say very well could happen.  Nobody bats 1000 gambling; especially on college sports.  I'm up in bowls so far so I'm playing on house money until better games start tomorrow night.  

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SDG

SDG 3,336

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16 minutes ago, pops said:

Going Wisconsin moneyline. Don't have any great reasons other than it will make it somewhere bearable to watch this game. 

Is taking the ML for a small favorite (+2) ever a good idea?  The payouts vs. the points never seem worth the risk to me.  

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pops

pops 7,162

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3 minutes ago, SDG said:

Is taking the ML for a small favorite (+2) ever a good idea?  The payouts vs. the points never seem worth the risk to me.  

Shit, man...if I were into good ideas I wouldn't be putting money on 18-22 year olds. 

I think Wisconsin will win, so I'd rather take +130 than get points I don't think I'll need at -110. But I've certainly been wrong before. 

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SDG

SDG 3,336

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8 minutes ago, pops said:

Shit, man...if I were into good ideas I wouldn't be putting money on 18-22 year olds. 

I think Wisconsin will win, so I'd rather take +130 than get points I don't think I'll need at -110. But I've certainly been wrong before. 

If those where your payouts than I agree.    

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SDG

SDG 3,336

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Today's bowl action: Purdue ML +150 (cause Fuck the SEC), Syracuse -2 (WVU mailed it in when their QB quit), and WAZZU -3 (despite the non-NY6 disappointment this team wants to be the first to get to 11 wins).  So far the dogs have been killing it this bowl season but I expect some changes as we head into better bowls.  

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chitwood

chitwood 155

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17 minutes ago, SDG said:

Today's bowl action: Purdue ML +150 (cause Fuck the SEC), Syracuse -2 (WVU mailed it in when their QB quit), and WAZZU -3 (despite the non-NY6 disappointment this team wants to be the first to get to 11 wins).  So far the dogs have been killing it this bowl season but I expect some changes as we head into better bowls.  

Actually the favorites are 11-8 ATS and 12-7 SU so far.  Point spread has been almost irrelevant.  Whoever wins the game is covering the spread.

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SDG

SDG 3,336

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19 minutes ago, chitwood said:

Actually the favorites are 11-8 ATS and 12-7 SU so far.  Point spread has been almost irrelevant.  Whoever wins the game is covering the spread.

I should have used the word MY in that statement.  So far I've made 5 bets on underdogs and have won all five.  When choosing the favorites I'm 3-2 so far.  I'll be clearer next time.      

Dog Bets so far: Wake (both points and parlay), Troy, Wisconsin, and Baylor.

Fav Bets so far: Army, La Tech (both points and parlay), GA Tech, and Temple.

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SDG

SDG 3,336

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3 minutes ago, Cameltoe said:

WVU has no QB?

http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/25482960/west-virginia-mountaineers-qb-grier-skip-bowl-game-focus-draft-prep

 

https://triblive.com/sports/college/wvu/14446997-74/syracuse-will-have-its-star-qb-to-face-grier-less-wvu-in-camping

 

 

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pops

pops 7,162

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3 hours ago, pops said:

Probably the wrong side but I'm all over West va. I know Grier is gone but I still don't think Syracuse is worth a shit. 9 point swing since he left. I'm going with the drunk coach in this one. 

I wrongly assumed their backup had at least taken snaps in the past year. Oh well. On to the next one. 

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Wally Pryor

Wally Pryor 5,413

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Doubtful.  Notre Dame  / USC told me what I needed to know about this game today.   SC's speed was too much for Notre Dame in the 1H.  They simply didn't have the depth to go 4 quarters before ultimately losing the game.  Clemson doesn't have a depth issue. 

Saban is likely going to pound and pound the ball - to keep Tua away from hits and also to take the tempo / Murray out of the game.  And Bama has 4 quality RBs who are fresh as hell and it's likely OU won't be able to do much of anything to stop them. 

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SDG

SDG 3,336

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7 minutes ago, Cameltoe said:

It would be nice if Oregon could score a point.

So, is Aggy good to cover 7.5 or will NC State pull the upset of the millennium? 

aggy could have 100% chance to cover and I'd never take that bet.  

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AUS-97HORN

AUS-97HORN 12,062

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On 12/20/2018 at 2:56 PM, AUS-97HORN said:

i am down about 55% from my gambling budget for the year.  I have decided to basically go big or close the year out with nothing.  

 

everything left, roughly 20 U, on Texas -13

 

 

yeppers   +13            20 U    -110

 

another 1.5U    (lol)   texas ML.  ( too bad I was too much of a pussy to drop it all on Texas ML +400...... oh well. 

 

FUCK THE SEC!!!!!!

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SDG

SDG 3,336

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On 1/1/2019 at 10:48 PM, AUS-97HORN said:

yeppers   +13            20 U    -110

 

another 1.5U    (lol)   texas ML.  ( too bad I was too much of a pussy to drop it all on Texas ML +400...... oh well. 

 

FUCK THE SEC!!!!!!

I pretty much did exactly what you did.  I thought I’d be broke by the end of the season but thanks to Texas I’m up 29% for the year.  

A0-F827-A2-803-A-4-BF6-9-E93-2-B115-B8-C

 

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VolenteHawk

VolenteHawk 495

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I'm counting on that thinking driving some money line value on Bama.  Currently my local guy has -5.5 -115 but Bama at -205...for slightly more than a dime worth of value on what the true price should be for that ML.

You see this in the Super Bowl pretty often, where the public money is either favorite to cover or dog for plus money and the price on the favorite ML trickles down cheaper than it should be in response.  If I can lay less than -200, I'll play it fairly big.

 

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UTEX90

UTEX90 589

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3 hours ago, VolenteHawk said:

I'm counting on that thinking driving some money line value on Bama.  Currently my local guy has -5.5 -115 but Bama at -205...for slightly more than a dime worth of value on what the true price should be for that ML.

You see this in the Super Bowl pretty often, where the public money is either favorite to cover or dog for plus money and the price on the favorite ML trickles down cheaper than it should be in response.  If I can lay less than -200, I'll play it fairly big.

 

They are -195 ML for the half.  Other than Georgia the half's have not even been close.

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AUS-97HORN

AUS-97HORN 12,062

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1 hour ago, UTEX90 said:

They are -195 ML for the half.  Other than Georgia the half's have not even been close.

dont forget the Citadel.....    they sure havent forgotten it, because they keep trolling Bama's opponents if they either have fewer points at half than the Citadel did, or they are losing by more than the Citadel was at half.

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pops

pops 7,162

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I like good teams getting huge moneylines against a Joe public fave. I just got Clemson at +200. 

Bama is good. No question. But I think they've shown some vulnerabilities the past couple games and Clemson may have a shot here. At least enough of a shot to take a +200 risk. Guess we will see. 

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VolenteHawk

VolenteHawk 495

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1 hour ago, pops said:

I like good teams getting huge moneylines against a Joe public fave. I just got Clemson at +200. 

Bama is good. No question. But I think they've shown some vulnerabilities the past couple games and Clemson may have a shot here. At least enough of a shot to take a +200 risk. Guess we will see. 

Joe Public seems to be on Clemson here, though. The resistance against the line moving down, which has been there for 36 hours or so, seems to be on Bama.

Bama ML never got to a valuable spot, so I teased it with a couple NFL sides next weekend.

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pops

pops 7,162

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18 minutes ago, VolenteHawk said:

Joe Public seems to be on Clemson here, though. The resistance against the line moving down, which has been there for 36 hours or so, seems to be on Bama.

Bama ML never got to a valuable spot, so I teased it with a couple NFL sides next weekend.

-6 or -6.5 is always a Joe public line in my mind. 

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