Passing Game: git 'er done

[sushihorn 3233]

The Longhorns are not going to run the ball successfully using standard 11 personnel against Georgia’s base 3-4.  They’re not going to run consistently against a 3-3 nickel.  I think what we can realistically hope for is enough success against nickel to keep 6 committed in the box plus an overhang defender at the edge of it.  That means Texas is going to have to get it done in the passing game – including running game extensions like quick bubble screens, swing passes and shovel jet sweep.

We’ve already talked about how UGa really is not a pressure defense, which is very helpful in buying time with play action since their run defense is designed NOT to penetrate.  On passing downs they like to rush 4, regardless of what front they present.  The secondary plays a lot of man and man-hybrid coverage, very little pure zone.  That often leaves an ILB responsible to cover the flats, which is very important.

Georgia has one talented pass rusher and one decent, both at LB.  They have 1 excellent CB and 2 other good DBs.  Kirby Smart likes to disguise coverages but the defensive design and good pass blocking can buy time for QBs to recognize the coverage.  Most of those coverages place a premium on stopping the deep ball with a lot of attention paid to vertical routes.  Sending CJ and Duvernay deep with regularity is going to leave LJ matched up on an OLB or NB covering the slant-hook zone.  This is most gruntling.

In a lot of hybrid coverages, Kirby has his DBs exchanging responsibilities based on quick reads of the routes being run on their side of the field.  This can confuse the QB by negating his pre-snap read of the coverage.  The downside is that it can occasionally confuse the defenders themselves and completely ignores delayed releases into the pattern.  Mizzou hurt them with the TEs and RBs.  Auburn did the same by motioning a receiver and running his pattern out of the backfield.  Bama didn’t make use of the RBs but their TE did damage at critical points in the game.  In this respect Beck, Watson and Ingram are as dangerous as anything the Bulldogs have seen and our scheme is better.

Kirby has shown a tendency to use a LB to spy mobile QBs.  Rush 4, drop 6 + the spy sounds OK.  But consider that probably leaves 3 deep, 3 under – which becomes 2 under once the RB slides out of the backfield.  That is 5 guys covering 3 WRs and a TE.  Unless they’ve got 3 shutdown cover guys (they don't), I like those numbers.  I suppose they could rush 3 but then they’d either have to drop their best pass rusher or a 300+ lb DL into coverage.  Either one is OK with me.

Finally there is the tendency to cover a RB in the flat with a 240 lb LB.  That may be fine in a league filled with power backs who are rarely called on the catch the ball.  Not so good with quick, agile 200 lb RBs with good hands.  Even if those LBs were as fast as their 215-220 lb Big XII counterparts, they won’t change direction as quickly – which is a big deal one-on-one in space.

The final thing to note is the huge size gap between Georgia’s LBs and DBs.  4 of the 5 starters are 180-190 lbs.  The 5^th is 194.  2 of them are 6’1” and 2 are 5’11” so there are size and power mismatches available to LJ and CJ.  I particularly like the idea of a 5’10” 180 lb NB covering LJ in the slot.

[Steamboat1874 4037]

We really have not run on anyone very well this entire season.

You are correct we should come out throwing to set up any running play we might try.

75% to 25% sounds about right.

[bluto 4895]

If baker plays I see them locking him on one of our bigs and giving safety help on the other consistently. If baker is as good as advertised and given our total lack of creativity most of the season, I don't see us moving the ball well. 

[Zavala 1384]

Stretch the fucking field, even if ahead. Going to have to rely on Ingram, I don't think Tre has the physicality or speed with his style to do much against this D.

[Sejjr 3246]

Does Georgia tend to play press coverage with their CBs, or do they tend to play more off? 

[TtomTerrific 200]

Hitting those wide open seam routes, especially the one to Beck that we seem to connect on about 1 of 5 times, would seem to be critical here. 

[GoldAppleCorps 617]

Playing in the Big 12, you rapidly get used to the idea that "1 on 1 is open" - especially when your WR is a power forward like LJH. The ability for Big 12 QBs to consistently drop balls in stride over the top of a receiver or place it exactly on a back shoulder at the boundary (and the receiver's training to expect it there and run that route) means a defensive secondary has to provide either help or the threat of help everywhere on the field.

It's setups like this that make for a good bowl game. We'd contend that Big 12 defenses look poor compared to the SEC due to the otherworldly abilities of the QBs and WRs that the State of Texas' football programs turn out. They would claim that their offenses are equally talented, but the legendary SECSECSEC speed of their defenses negates those weapons. Usually, a top tiered Big 12 offense would only play an also-ran SEC team during non-con, if at all. We just never get to test this in a live fire exercise.

Texas isn't the top Big 12 offense. There's zero reason, though, for them to run head first into a brick wall defense begging them to play within 3 yards of the LOS. Trying to allocate resources against Johnson, LJH, Duvernay, Beck, and Watson is tough for any defense.

Your write up reminds me of our game against Baylor. I've seen Baylor play more than just about anyone else here. With pressure in his face, the QB panics and runs. When a defense does the "rush 3 drop 8", you're just allowing the receivers to run until they find an opening.

[Longboard Horn 40172]

2 hours ago, Sejjr said:

Does Georgia tend to play press coverage with their CBs, or do they tend to play more off? 

It’s all depending on the situation.  From what I noticed during the SEC championship game Georgia likes to play press coverage. 

[CooterBrown 17943]

Our running game this year hasn't been a threat to do shit other than one to three 8-yard carries a game.  The defensive scheme won't matter at all. We don't have the backs to do anything.

 

[sushihorn 3233]

3 hours ago, bluto said:

If baker plays I see them locking him on one of our bigs and giving safety help on the other consistently. If baker is as good as advertised and given our total lack of creativity most of the season, I don't see us moving the ball well. 

In that case I see Baker matched up with CJ.  Tough to use a corner to follow a slot receiver all over the field.  It's going to be uncomfortable for Baker when Texas lines up twins to the boundary.  He's a boundary corner and putting him to the field side almost forces safety help over there given the amount of real estate.

[Fico 1743]

They play a base two deep.  We are going to have to manufacture a run game in order to have them drop a safety into the box, if we want to have the ability to hit big plays in the passing game.

Having said that, being able to take advantage of the ILBs in the passing game is going to be key as well.  Whether that is over the middle, or in getting those guys on the run laterally. 

 

 

[Pig Bellmont 8692]

29 minutes ago, Fico said:

They play a base two deep.

I understood they play a lot of Quarters. I think our vertical pass game will be open if Sam’s shoulder isn’t bothering him. 

[Tex Long 4356]

38 minutes ago, Pig Bellmont said:

I understood they play a lot of Quarters. I think our vertical pass game will be open if Sam’s shoulder isn’t bothering him. 

Well... it'll prolly be open regardless of Sam's shoulder feels. Whether he can hit the receivers or not is another issue entirely. 

[So_co 69]

6 hours ago, bluto said:

If baker plays

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.onlineathens.com/sports/20181205/projected-nfl-first-round-pick-deandre-baker-says-he-plans-to-play-in-sugar-bowl%3ftemplate=ampart

 

"I'm playing in the Sugar Bowl," Baker said Wednesday night at the College Football Hall of Fame where he was available to reporters ahead of Thursday night's College Football Awards. "I just wanted to finish it right with my teammates that's all. I want to finish with a W with my team for my last game as a Bulldog."

[So_co 69]

Good assessment. 

While it's true that the sack numbers don't reflect it, the Dawgs have certainly made quite a few QBs very uncomfortable during games this year. As you noted, they aren't an aggressive, attacking defense, but they do a good job of collapsing the pocket while maintaining a disciplined lane, thereby speeding up the QBs internal clock. Will be fun to see how the matchup plays out.

[sushihorn 3233]

5 hours ago, Sejjr said:

Does Georgia tend to play press coverage with their CBs, or do they tend to play more off? 

They play a good amount of press technique.  The disguise comes from different calls in press man, press bail (to cover 3 or quarters usually) or press then hand to the safety while the CB covers short outside the hash.  The later is not used much against teams that can throw downfield, i.e. seen against Auburn and UK but not much vs Bama.

[Machinator 32098]

 

[sushihorn 3233]

It's hard to appreciate just how much conflict the ILBs coverage responsibilities create in Kirby Smart's defense.  The strong side ILB (Mike) has the A-gap run fit, then coverage to the flat.  Even with equal speed and no traffic, it's tough to do both of those jobs.  By contrast ISU or Texas would usually delegate that job to a robber nickel or safety, who is both faster and starts with outside leverage. 

The conflict results from the structure of the defense using a triangle of NG and 2 ILBs to completely stuff the A-gaps, with a lower priority on disrupting passes to the flats.  That's a rational trade off given the offensive priorities in the SEC but there's no free lunch.  This is why UGa has a lot of trouble with flat coverage.  Quick passes there catch the primary defender looking inside.  Delayed releases get them committed to the slant/curl area.

[Machinator 32098]

The cornerback opposite Baker, Eric Stokes, is no slouch either.

[gaspar 102]

According to stats, he giving up 7 inches and 15 lbs to Collin...bring on this mofo and his Paycom Jim Thorpe award

[Steamboat1874 4037]

The one thing our OL did well this year is pass block.

Obviously will be critical here.

[bluto 4895]

Then they got their shit pushed in in pass pro in Arlington by ou of all ppl. Still trying to figure that out.