2018 Senate Elections

[Parliament 14,593]

Someone who cares more can start one for the House.

North Dakota Senator Heidi Heitkamp is going down.  She got in 6 years ago, despite being a Democrat in a red State because her opponent was an insufferable ahole.  (She's also a nice person.  But she's a Dem and ND doesn't like Dems.)

This year, the Republicans are running a pissbagging hack against her.  But he's not an insufferable ahole.  He'll wail on her about Gun Control and abortion, and beat her by an easy margin.

[berlinerbaer 692]

Cook Political seems to think your prediction is a bold one. This election will be close.

[Dr. Teeth 5,868]

McCaskill just announced a fundraiser with Obama in Beverly Hills. Apparently these people aren’t smart. There will be a new ad with that info shortly. Even though I thought she had no chance against Hawley, you can now place that MO seat in insanely solid R.  

Edited March 28, 2018 by Dr. Teeth

[Mdhorn 6,166]

Should the dems win Congress and the economy tank guess who is going to get the blame regardless? Any guesses which party doesn't care about pulling the pin and tossing it to Congress before the end of 2019? How about the same people that don't care about gun regulation of any sort or mass shootings in schools?

[Ghost of LL 15,699]

Heitkamp has insane positives in ND.  That’s a state in which you can literally meet every voter, and over the last six years, she has.  Multiple times.  Senators from states like that don’t lose for that reason, and I don’t expect her to do so.

McCaskill is a political Houdini.  She has no business winning.  But until I see otherwise, I assume she will.

Donnelly is in a tough spot.  I don’t know how he keeps that seat. 

[RayDog 682]

Since it has been about a month I thought a status report would be good.

Republican held seats in jeapardy
AZ Likely opponents Sinema Vs. McSally, Latest polls Sinema +6, Clear lead for Sinema in all polls

AZ2 possible if McCain retires before May 31. After May 31 the AZ governor (R) will appoint a replacement to finish out the term
I expect McCain will hold out if he can so a Republican gets appointed, otherwise  Republicans run a real risk of losing both AZ Senate seats in November.

TN Bredesen Vs Blackburn RCP average Bredesen +5, latest pole Bredesen +3, greatest difference +10 Bredesen, clearly breaking for Bredesen

NV Heller Vs Rosen, latest polls Heller +1, Rosen +.4, a true toss-up

TX Cruz Vs. O'Rourke, latest poll Cruz +3, another toss-up, although still being labeled as likely Republican by most prediction services. 

MS2 LIkely Opponents in the run-off Hyde-Smith Vs Espy, latest poll Hyde-Smith +6 (but with 22% undecided)
This poll had an essentially equal percent of Republican and Democratic responders, so Espy's best chance would rely on a strong Democratic turnout similar to the recent Alabama senate election. A strong Democratic candidate for governor will also drive Democratic turnout. This one is to early to tell, even if it is considered likely Republican by most services.

The Republicans could lose between 2 and 5 seats based on the current figures. 5 would only happen if there is a lopsided turnout similar to what happen in Alabama. 

Democratic held seats in jeopardy
FL Nelson Vs Scott, RCP average Nelson +3.8, latest poll Nelson +4, no polls have shown Scott with a lead
IN Likely Opponents Donnely Vs ?. The Republican primary is May 8, It is too early to get accurate polling for the general.
MO McCaskil Vs Hawley RCP average McCaskil 2.3, latest McCaskil +4, no polls have shown Hawley with a lead
ND Heitkamp Vs. Cramer, Latest poll Heitkamp +3, Heitkamp consistently leading the polling
WV Manchin Vs ?, Primary May 8, Manchin is polling ~50% against all possible opponents with a big lead against all the Republican candidates
MT Tester Vs. ?, primary June 5. All major predictor sites have this as a lean Democratic race
OH Brown Vs Renacci, Brown +13 average of latest two pools. Lean Democrat on all major prediction sites, but so far looks like a safe Democratic seat.

It looks like the Democrats could lose between 0 and 4 seats, with Indiana being the least predictable at this point.

I read an interesting article that looked at the toss-ups in mid term senate races and they always break for one party or the other typically at about an 80% clip. It currently looks like things are breaking in the Democrats favor this time.

 

[High Plains Drifter 11,186]

Wait, you are saying the Demos could actually flip the Senate?

 

Also, would McCain actually hold out long enough to avoid a special election? Sounds like the kind of bullshit he doesn't like.

[Mojo Hand 4,580]

 

[RayDog 682]

On 5/2/2018 at 3:07 AM, High Plains Drifter said:

Wait, you are saying the Demos could actually flip the Senate?

 

Also, would McCain actually hold out long enough to avoid a special election? Sounds like the kind of bullshit he doesn't like.

My personal guess at this point is Republicans lose 4 seats including Texas and the Democrats lose only 1 leading to a Democrat controlled Senate. I don't think Trump increases his approaval rating enough in the next 6 months to avoid both houses flipping.

The McCain family through a spokesperson has said they expect him back in DC this summer. I hope for his sake that it is true. I think he is holding out thinking he will get better, not to prevent an election in 2018.

 

[FondrenRoad 4,378]

7 minutes ago, RayDog said:

My personal guess at this point is Republicans lose 4 seats including Texas and the Democrats lose only 1 leading to a Democrat controlled Senate. I don't think Trump increases his approaval rating enough in the next 6 months to avoid both houses flipping.

The McCain family through a spokesperson has said they expect him back in DC this summer. I hope for his sake that it is true. I think he is holding out thinking he will get better, not to prevent an election in 2018.

 

I think McCain may be afraid that retiring now would hasten his death. Even a lot of actually healthy elderly working people die quickly when they retire and break their routine. 

[Parliament 14,593]

Once the campaining starts, Heitkamp's numbers will drop HARD. Kramer is a hack, but he's a Republican hack. That's usually all it takes.

[Burt 4,136]

Tester in Montana will be almost a dead heat.  If the western dems turn out he'll eek out a win.  If not, he's done.  He has no support at all in the eastern counties other than rez counties.

Heitkamp isn't winning ND.  That's still Trump country.  

[Parliament 14,593]

And MT isn't? I would think his coat tails will help the R's there?

[Tennesseehorn 101]

On 5/4/2018 at 7:02 AM, RayDog said:

My personal guess at this point is Republicans lose 4 seats including Texas and the Democrats lose only 1 leading to a Democrat controlled Senate. I don't think Trump increases his approaval rating enough in the next 6 months to avoid both houses flipping.

The McCain family through a spokesperson has said they expect him back in DC this summer. I hope for his sake that it is true. I think he is holding out thinking he will get better, not to prevent an election in 2018.

 

I'm afraid you are dreaming.  Right now the blue wave is fiction.  The GOP could pick up 5-7 Senate seats and the House will stay with the GOP.  The generic ballot that a lot of the “pundits” use for the “blue” wave prediction is close to the MOE.  Trumps approval #s are getting much better.  The dems will be crying like it was 2016 again.  

[RayDog 682]

3 hours ago, Tennesseehorn said:

I'm afraid you are dreaming.  Right now the blue wave is fiction.  The GOP could pick up 5-7 Senate seats and the House will stay with the GOP.  The generic ballot that a lot of the “pundits” use for the “blue” wave prediction is close to the MOE.  Trumps approval #s are getting much better.  The dems will be crying like it was 2016 again.  

The polling showing sitting democrats leading in every poll does not include the 8% predicted polling advantage. The same is true in AZ and TN.

So not even factoring turnout it looks like Democrats gain two seats based on current polling, with NV bring a tossup, but likely 3rd seat

[David Dennison 19,525]

3 hours ago, Tennesseehorn said:

I'm afraid you are dreaming.  Right now the blue wave is fiction.  The GOP could pick up 5-7 Senate seats and the House will stay with the GOP.  The generic ballot that a lot of the “pundits” use for the “blue” wave prediction is close to the MOE.  Trumps approval #s are getting much better.  The dems will be crying like it was 2016 again.  

Everything you just said in here is spin. 

[Tennesseehorn 101]

24 minutes ago, RayDog said:

The polling showing sitting democrats leading in every poll does not include the 8% predicted polling advantage. The same is true in AZ and TN.

So not even factoring turnout it looks like Democrats gain two seats based on current polling, with NV bring a tossup, but likely 3rd seat

Sorry you are wrong.  As much as you and the others slobbering on this thread about a blue wave, it ain’t happening.  Every dem in a Trump winning state will likely lose—-and that includes Tammy Baldwin in WI. I stand by my statements.  The generic ballot is NOT looking for the dems.  The more the dems and MSM (actually there is no difference) continue to trash Trump especially Mueller and his band of dem sycophants the higher Trump’s approval rating will go.  

[David Dennison 19,525]

11 minutes ago, Tennesseehorn said:

Sorry you are wrong.  As much as you and the others slobbering on this thread about a blue wave, it ain’t happening.  Every dem in a Trump winning state will likely lose—-and that includes Tammy Baldwin in WI. I stand by my statements.  The generic ballot is NOT looking for the dems.  The more the dems and MSM (actually there is no difference) continue to trash Trump especially Mueller and his band of dem sycophants the higher Trump’s approval rating will go.  

More spin.

Your boy is historically unpopular and that's going to get his party drubbed in November.

Edited May 6, 2018 by David Dennison

[Burt 4,136]

On 5/4/2018 at 7:44 AM, Parliament said:

And MT isn't? I would think his coat tails will help the R's there?

Not like in North Dakota.  Western Montana is pretty liberal. 

[Tennesseehorn 101]

10 hours ago, David Dennison said:

More spin.

Your boy is historically unpopular and that's going to get his party drubbed in November.

I guess we’ll see in November.  Something tells me you’ll be the one crying and not with tears of joy. 

[skeeter 455]

 

[TahoeHorn 107]

One of the interesting questions will be how to play Trump.  The Democrats need to run against Trump, but not too much.  Obviously the Republicans need to do the opposite.

Trump is unpopular but the public isn't ready to impeach.

The White House is trying to get the Dems to overplay their hand, and make the election about a Trump impeachment.  That would produce a backlash and drive an angry right to the polls. 

Dem strategists are trying hard to develop an anti-Trump message which doesn't suggest that the Dems are trying to impeach Trump.

GOP candidates aren't as enthusiastic about running on Trump.  If the Dems overplay their hand they want to run on impeachment fears.  But most smart GOPP folk seem to think that strategy requires the Dems to move first and to overreach.  If the GOP tries to create the issue out of whole cloth like the White House seems to want it won't work unless the Dems take the bait.

[RayDog 682]

Democrats already know not to run against Trump and not to mention impeachment unless asked about. And then the standard response is to wait for the Mueller report and see what it says.

Trump is destroying the credibility of his party and publicises it fine on his own.

[TahoeHorn 107]

5 minutes ago, RayDog said:

Democrats already know not to run against Trump and not to mention impeachment unless asked about. And then the standard response is to wait for the Mueller report and see what it says.

Trump is destroying the credibility of his party and publicises it fine on his own.

The smart ones do.  The angry emotional ones don't.

And don't underestimate anger and emotion. I have some stories about candidates who do stupid stuff or who are tempted to do stupid stuff because they get angry about their opponent.  There are Democrats so mad at Trump they froth at the mouth.  They may know not to talk about impeachment.  their campaign may tell them over and over.  But don't believe that, in the heat of the moment, some won't get stupid.

[berlinerbaer 692]

4 hours ago, TahoeHorn said:

One of the interesting questions will be how to play Trump.  The Democrats need to run against Trump, but not too much.  Obviously the Republicans need to do the opposite.

Trump is unpopular but the public isn't ready to impeach.

The White House is trying to get the Dems to overplay their hand, and make the election about a Trump impeachment.  That would produce a backlash and drive an angry right to the polls. 

Dem strategists are trying hard to develop an anti-Trump message which doesn't suggest that the Dems are trying to impeach Trump.

GOP candidates aren't as enthusiastic about running on Trump.  If the Dems overplay their hand they want to run on impeachment fears.  But most smart GOPP folk seem to think that strategy requires the Dems to move first and to overreach.  If the GOP tries to create the issue out of whole cloth like the White House seems to want it won't work unless the Dems take the bait.

Politico shares this view.

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/05/06/trump-midterms-republicans-presidency-571550

 

Edited May 7, 2018 by berlinerbaer
typo

[RayDog 682]

Angry and emotional? You are confusing Democrats with Trump Republicans.

[berlinerbaer 692]

Ruh-roh

Quote

There is growing concern among Republicans that Don Blankenship, a bombastic coal baron who has spent time in prison, is surging ahead of Tuesday’s West Virginia Senate primary — and a last-minute campaign is underway to stop him.

As the tight contest hurtles to a close, four Republicans said they’d reviewed polling conducted in recent days showing Blankenship, who spent a year in jail following the 2010 explosion at his Upper Big Branch Mine that killed 29 workers, moving narrowly ahead of his more mainstream GOP rivals, Rep. Evan Jenkins and state Attorney General Patrick Morrisey.

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/05/05/blankenship-polls-west-virginia-senate-primary-570752

[kevwun 16,437]

I just saw Don Blankenship speak for the first time.  We need to consider throwing West Virginia out of the Union.  Maybe sell it to the China people.

Edited May 7, 2018 by kevwun

[High Plains Drifter 11,186]

West Virginia coal miners are going to nominate a guy who spent ten years for violating safety measures in his mines that got miners killed.

More like pay the China people to take it off our hands.

[cactusflinthead 27,627]

4 hours ago, TahoeHorn said:

The smart ones do.  The angry emotional ones don't.

And don't underestimate anger and emotion. I have some stories about candidates who do stupid stuff or who are tempted to do stupid stuff because they get angry about their opponent.  There are Democrats so mad at Trump they froth at the mouth.  They may know not to talk about impeachment.  their campaign may tell them over and over.  But don't believe that, in the heat of the moment, some won't get stupid.

Be sure to let us know when someone running in a competitive district or Senate race that has a D by their name lets fly with impeachment talk. 

I can wait. 

 

[Ghost of LL 15,699]

On 5/4/2018 at 8:42 AM, Burt said:

Tester in Montana will be almost a dead heat.  If the western dems turn out he'll eek out a win.  If not, he's done.  He has no support at all in the eastern counties other than rez counties.

Heitkamp isn't winning ND.  That's still Trump country.  

I'm curious to know your basis on Heitkamp, because my understanding is that she is a lot safer than Tester, Donnelly, or McCaskill.

North Dakota is unique in several respects, all of which favor Heitkamp in this election:

1) North Dakota is a small state from a population standpoint, but a very large state from a geographic standpoint.  That means that it is easy enough to meet all of the voters in North Dakota, but the travel time involved makes it time-consuming.  

That's a feature of North Dakota politics that really favors the incumbent more so than other states.  For that reason, incumbents just don't lose that often in North Dakota, irrespective of party.  It's been 30 years since a sitting senator lost reelection; 34 years since a sitting governor lost reelection.

And say what you want about Heidi Heitkamp--she's a damned good retail campaigner.  That she won in 2012 was something of a miracle, and it was based entirely on how hard she worked at retail campaigning.  That hasn't changed over the last six years--if anything, she's gotten better.

2) North Dakota has a tradition of agriculture-based socialism that you don't see in states like Montana or Missouri.  It also has a large Native American population that votes fairly reliably Democratic (though not as reliably as some other minority groups).  For that reason, Heitkamp's seat has been in Democratic-NPL hands since 1960, and both of North Dakota's senators were Democratic-NPL as recently as 2010.

3) Hand-in-hand with that agricultural-based socialistic political culture is a(n over-)reliance on government and constituent services.  And everything I've heard is that Heitkamp is a champ at constituent services.  And in a state that size, helping out one family is going to get a shocking percentage of the electorate on your side.

At exactly the same time she's doing good constituent services work, Trump is starting a trade war that is going to hammer North Dakota's exports of soybeans to China.  That's going to be a real tough environment for Cramer to run in.

[Parliament 14,593]

ND flipped R basically after 9-11, partially because our D Senators and Reps at the time were getting old and more liberal. (Byron Dorgan allowed himself to be interviewed in Fahrenheit 911. Not smart.)

Heitkamp was able to swim against the current because her opponent, Rick Berg was a arrogant, entitled asshole. I can't emphasize enough how shitty of a person he is. She's a nice person, and has been able to avoid the conservative issue pitfalls that usually trip up D's in this State.

Rep Kevin Cramer is running against her this time. He's a hack, but he's a nice person. And (wrongly, imho) he gets some credit for helping shut down the Dakota Access Pipeline protests.

ND likes President Trump and once he starts campaining for Cramer, I believe his polling will improve. The opportunity to flip this seat will be very much on President Trump's radar.

All that said, I admit to quite a bit of wishful thinking.

[Parliament 14,593]

ND flipped R basically after 9-11, partially because our D Senators and Reps at the time were getting old and more liberal. (Byron Dorgan allowed himself to be interviewed in Fahrenheit 911. Not smart.)

Heitkamp was able to swim against the current because her opponent, Rick Berg was a arrogant, entitled asshole. I can't emphasize enough how shitty of a person he is. She's a nice person, and has been able to avoid the conservative issue pitfalls that usually trip up D's in this State.

Rep Kevin Cramer is running against her this time. He's a hack, but he's a nice person. And (wrongly, imho) he gets some credit for helping shut down the Dakota Access Pipeline protests.

ND likes President Trump and once he starts campaining for Cramer, I believe his polling will improve. The opportunity to flip this seat will be very much on President Trump's radar.

All that said, I admit to quite a bit of wishful thinking.

ETA
Regarding the "agricultural socialism;" our RINO Senator, John "Mom Jeans" Hoeven has managed to be a fine agricultural socialist. I don't have the numbers, but I'll bet the ag community votes R at a higher rate than the State overall.

Native Americans vote 70%+ D. That'll never change.

[Burt 4,136]

59 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

I'm curious to know your basis on Heitkamp, because my understanding is that she is a lot safer than Tester, Donnelly, or McCaskill.

North Dakota is unique in several respects, all of which favor Heitkamp in this election:

1) North Dakota is a small state from a population standpoint, but a very large state from a geographic standpoint.  That means that it is easy enough to meet all of the voters in North Dakota, but the travel time involved makes it time-consuming.  

That's a feature of North Dakota politics that really favors the incumbent more so than other states.  For that reason, incumbents just don't lose that often in North Dakota, irrespective of party.  It's been 30 years since a sitting senator lost reelection; 34 years since a sitting governor lost reelection.

And say what you want about Heidi Heitkamp--she's a damned good retail campaigner.  That she won in 2012 was something of a miracle, and it was based entirely on how hard she worked at retail campaigning.  That hasn't changed over the last six years--if anything, she's gotten better.

2) North Dakota has a tradition of agriculture-based socialism that you don't see in states like Montana or Missouri.  It also has a large Native American population that votes fairly reliably Democratic (though not as reliably as some other minority groups).  For that reason, Heitkamp's seat has been in Democratic-NPL hands since 1960, and both of North Dakota's senators were Democratic-NPL as recently as 2010.

3) Hand-in-hand with that agricultural-based socialistic political culture is a(n over-)reliance on government and constituent services.  And everything I've heard is that Heitkamp is a champ at constituent services.  And in a state that size, helping out one family is going to get a shocking percentage of the electorate on your side.

At exactly the same time she's doing good constituent services work, Trump is starting a trade war that is going to hammer North Dakota's exports of soybeans to China.  That's going to be a real tough environment for Cramer to run in.

I'm simply basing it on the western North Dakota farmers that I talk to.  Much like the farmers of eastern Montana , they've been hornswaggled into voting on the God, guns, gays and abortion and how evil the "libtards" are. 

She won in 2012 by less than 4000 votes (1 percentage point).  The other senator from ND (Hoeven) won in 2016 with the greatest margin of victory in the state's history (79% to 17%).  I hope I'm wrong and that the eastern side of ND can offset the west.  But I have lost complete faith in our electorate.  Granted, once their bottom line is affected that may change.  I just don't see it happening by November, however.  

[kevwun 16,437]

China not buying any US soybeans is going to cause people pain and the cause is easily understood by everyone.  That's going to have traction among farmers and it will have happened before November.

Edited May 7, 2018 by kevwun

[Burt 4,136]

Hope so.  But in today's political atmosphere, I can't believe anything until I actually see it happen.  

[Parliament 14,593]

True. However, many of us believe that issue will be resolved (somehow) before then. The CBOT agrees, ATM anyway.

 

 

 

... they've been hornswaggled into voting on the God, guns, gays and abortion and how evil the "libtards" are. 

 

President Obama's hostility towards carbon was a factor as well.

[kevwun 16,437]

How do you quickly resolve a trade war you started and lost to the victor's satisfaction without anyone losing face?  Donald better hope he finds out.

Edited May 7, 2018 by kevwun

[David Dennison 19,525]

5 minutes ago, kevwun said:

How do you quickly resolve a trade war you started and lost to the victor's satisfaction without anyone losing face?  Donald better hope he finds out.

Lie about it?

[kevwun 16,437]

Lies won't work on this one if China doesn't start buying US soybeans again.  He can't but Obama this one no matter how hard he tries.  It's his baby and everyone knows it.

Edited May 7, 2018 by kevwun

[SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3,871]

I’m of the opinion nobody feels any pain from the soybean thing. Easy subsidies and relief, kick the debt down the road.  Basically one more embodiment of the tweet about “Let’s see Trump escape from this!/Trump escapes easily.”

[Chuckie Finster 23,039]

4 minutes ago, kevwun said:

Lies won't work on this one if China doesn't start buying US soybeans again.  He can't but Obama this one no matter how hard he tries.  It's his baby and everyone knows it.

Trump could say that China never actually bought soybeans from us, it was a lie from Obama to try and secure midwest votes and like 30% of the country would believe him and thank him for exposing the truth.

[Parliament 14,593]

How do you quickly resolve a trade war you started and lost to the victor's satisfaction without anyone losing face?  Donald better hope he finds out.

Could be wrong, but I think the tariffs aren't set to start until July?

China already buys like 75% of Brazil's beans. In the short term, they'll hafta buy from us.

Other buyer look to step up their US purchases if our prices drop.

All of the above is the reason soy futures haven't crashed.

[David Dennison 19,525]

Prediction: the tariffs will never go into effect

[kevwun 16,437]

China already stopped buying them ahead of the tariff.

Edited May 7, 2018 by kevwun

[Nolacycling 893]

  

Our trade team just got back from China with no good news. Sorghum is also affected and Texas does a lot of that. Some sorghum boats literally changed course on their way to China. Texas farmers may choose to replace sorghum fields with corn or cotton.

From the Cedar Rapids Gazette, April 5.

"Neither set of tariffs goes into effect immediately. Companies in the United States have until May 22 to make comments on levies on Chinese goods, and China did not announce a specific date for its retaliatory tariffs, according to national news reports.

That means there still is time for the United States and China to de-escalate the tariff talk, Kimberley said.

“There’s a little bit of wiggle room, a little bit of time here, that I hope both sides will come back to the table and negotiate,” said Kimberley, who farms corns and soybeans northeast of Des Moines"

[Mojo Hand 4,580]

Even better, Blankenship's girlfriend is from China, and he's said in the past that he was thinking of becoming a Chinese citizen.  So.... 

[SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3,871]

Yeah, there is no way he wins the general.  Maybe if Roy Moore would have gotten a few more votes, my faith in WV voters would be less, but the dude would cause revulsions in WV to anyone that isnt an absolute fanatic. 

[BrickHorn 18,447]

12 minutes ago, longhornmatt said:

The GOP is the party of crazy people now. Sad!

The GOP was once home to thoughtful fiscal conservatives and educated churchgoers.  Those types are mostly horrified of Trump and the squawking dummies / frothing extremists who support him, and have found themselves without a party to call home.  The average IQ of the GOP base must have dropped 5 points since November 2016.  

[Ghost of LL 15,699]

I think 50 is closer to the mark.

Does anybody know if West Virginia requires a runoff if nobody gets 50%?