2020 Senate Elections

[Voldemort86 2,259]

2 hours ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

It's certainly comforting seeing a win without relying on FL or GA.

Or Ohio / Iowa.

[RayDog 682]

The current Civiqs Trump approval ratings show Trump even or under water in states where there are important senate races.

Arizona 45/52, Colorado 40/57, Georgia 47/50, Iowa 48/49, Maine 39/57, North Carolina 45/52, Texas 48/48

Maine, Colorado, Arizona, and North Carolina are looking like the states where a Democratic senate pickup is most likely.  Georgia could end up leaning democratic as well if Democrats continue to have a 3% advantage there. Iowa and Texas appear to be true toss-ups. Note that Florida is also 47/50.

The following states have important Senate races and still support Trump, Alabama 55/42, Kansas 52/45, Kentucky 60/36, South Carolina 51/46. But, Democrats have a small chance in each race due to unlikable Republican candidates namely Moore, Kobach, Moscow Mitch, and Lennigrad Lindsey. Moore wants to lose to Jones for the second time, and he might get the nomination. Kobach lost the 2018 governors race and now wants to lose the Senate race, and he might get the nomination there. In Kentucky an unpopular Republican governor is running behind a popular Democrat in 2019 as an early test of Kentucky's loyalty to the Republican party. The MoscowMitch name appears to be sticking. South Carolina could continuing trending into toss-up territory, but is not there yet.

Civiqs Trumps Approval Ratings by State

 

 

[Voldemort86 2,259]

4 hours ago, RayDog said:

The current Civiqs Trump approval ratings show Trump even or under water in states where there are important senate races.

Arizona 45/52, Colorado 40/57, Georgia 47/50, Iowa 48/49, Maine 39/57, North Carolina 45/52, Texas 48/48

Maine, Colorado, Arizona, and North Carolina are looking like the states where a Democratic senate pickup is most likely.  Georgia could end up leaning democratic as well if Democrats continue to have a 3% advantage there. Iowa and Texas appear to be true toss-ups. Note that Florida is also 47/50.

The following states have important Senate races and still support Trump, Alabama 55/42, Kansas 52/45, Kentucky 60/36, South Carolina 51/46. But, Democrats have a small chance in each race due to unlikable Republican candidates namely Moore, Kobach, Moscow Mitch, and Lennigrad Lindsey. Moore wants to lose to Jones for the second time, and he might get the nomination. Kobach lost the 2018 governors race and now wants to lose the Senate race, and he might get the nomination there. In Kentucky an unpopular Republican governor is running behind a popular Democrat in 2019 as an early test of Kentucky's loyalty to the Republican party. The MoscowMitch name appears to be sticking. South Carolina could continuing trending into toss-up territory, but is not there yet.

Civiqs Trumps Approval Ratings by State

 

 

I’d like to think that Colorado and Maine are near certain dem pickups 

 

Alabama has to be a near certain repub pickup.

stacy Abrams probably didn’t want to run for senate in Georgia because Brian kemp will fuck with the voting machines again if he has too.

 

 

Edited August 9, 2019 by Voldemort86

[gmr548 16,580]

Colorado is a lock. Maine isn't quite there but it is trending that way. AZ is basically a tossup. AL is CO type lock to flip back to Rs if it isn't Moore and a ME level lean if it is.

It is really easy to see the Ds getting a net +2 to 49. Finding the third seat they need to control with the Vice Presidency is a real possibility with the close nature of AZ and lottery tickets on the rest. Unfortunately, finding another seat to be the third seat in the event of an AZ loss, or a fourth in the case of an AZ win with a Trump reelection is tough.

Senate races are more closely tied to Presidential partisanship than ever and unseating an incumbent Senator is really fucking hard. NC, GA, IA, TX, are all slight to heavy Trump leans and all four have incumbent Republicans running. Here in TX, yes Trump does not poll well but statewide Rs have run ahead of him. Cornyn is better liked than Cruz and the Ds are not going to mount as spirited of a challenge. Continued demographic shifts will keep it from being a rout, but Ds won't get any closer than Beto did in '18 and the margin will probably be wider. NC and GA add their records of voter suppression/cheating from the GOP establishment and the TX GOP has shown it is willing to go that way as well. NC is the best chance I guess - it's the most swing-y and Thillis is uniquely unpopular - but overall all four are likely to stay R seats. I guess KS might reject Kobach twice but that is the only reason it's even worth a mention. Even if he is on the ballot, in a presidential election with Trump also on the ballot and less of a Democratic tailwind in 2020 than in 2018, he'd be the favorite. SC isn't booting a very well known Republican incumbent in a presidential year. If that election is even within five points, Rs will have gotten their clocks cleaned nationally.

[Voldemort86 2,259]

1 hour ago, gmr548 said:

Colorado is a lock. Maine isn't quite there but it is trending that way. AZ is basically a tossup. AL is CO type lock to flip back to Rs if it isn't Moore and a ME level lean if it is.

It is really easy to see the Ds getting a net +2 to 49. Finding the third seat they need to control with the Vice Presidency is a real possibility with the close nature of AZ and lottery tickets on the rest. Unfortunately, finding another seat to be the third seat in the event of an AZ loss, or a fourth in the case of an AZ win with a Trump reelection is tough.

Senate races are more closely tied to Presidential partisanship than ever and unseating an incumbent Senator is really fucking hard. NC, GA, IA, TX, are all slight to heavy Trump leans and all four have incumbent Republicans running. Here in TX, yes Trump does not poll well but statewide Rs have run ahead of him. Cornyn is better liked than Cruz and the Ds are not going to mount as spirited of a challenge. Continued demographic shifts will keep it from being a rout, but Ds won't get any closer than Beto did in '18 and the margin will probably be wider. NC and GA add their records of voter suppression/cheating from the GOP establishment and the TX GOP has shown it is willing to go that way as well. NC is the best chance I guess - it's the most swing-y and Thillis is uniquely unpopular - but overall all four are likely to stay R seats. I guess KS might reject Kobach twice but that is the only reason it's even worth a mention. Even if he is on the ballot, in a presidential election with Trump also on the ballot and less of a Democratic tailwind in 2020 than in 2018, he'd be the favorite. SC isn't booting a very well known Republican incumbent in a presidential year. If that election is even within five points, Rs will have gotten their clocks cleaned nationally.

The conventional wisdom has always been that the Democrats will probably take the senate back in 2022. I don’t know why that is, but it definitely needs to happen then. The next terrible cycle for democrats will be 2024, a lot of our seats will be up for re-election. Really need to take control of the senate before that cycle.

in 2020, they need to get up to at least 49 seats tho. Anything else would be seen as a massive fail.

Edited August 12, 2019 by Voldemort86

[RayDog 682]

In 2022 there are already open seats in Wisconsin and North Carolina and those along with Pennsylvania a good targets for flipping.

Florida, Georgia and Iowa are also targets and could be close in 2020 and tell us if they are toss-ups in 2022. Murkowski will have to defend her seat after her Kavanaugh vote. 

Kansas, Missouri, and Ohio are longer shots, but could be competitive, depending on the candidate and trends in the states and parties.

All together the Democrats have good prospects to pick up 3 or 4 seats in 2022, and possibly more.

 

[GopherRock 1,765]

Doug Jones needs Roy Moore on the ballot to keep Bama from being an auto-loss.

It's really hard to knock out an incumbent from the Senate, but the incumbent hasn't held onto Tillis' seat in North Carolina since Jesse Helms' last reelection in 1996. Since then, it's flipped every time it has come up (02, 08, and 14). 

Of the four dogfights you mentioned, the likelihood of flipping probably goes NC, IA, a large gap, GA, TX, and the rest. NC for the reasons I mentioned above. If the Senate is tied to the White House, Trump is under water by double digits in Iowa and Ernst hasn't done a thing to separate herself from him. There are also two more seasons of farmers getting trounced between now and then. 

The large gap is there because Texas and Georgia are lottery tickets, along with the insurrection campaigns against Moscow Mitch and Leningrad Lindsey. However, if either of those two are sweating out a photo finish, the GOP has already lost control of the chamber and is having a bad night across the board. 

The race where the presidential hopeful needs to get out and get into the Senate race isn't Colorado, it's Montana. Steve Bullock could single-handedly move this one from lost-cause to lottery ticket.

[RayDog 682]

The Civiqs polls of Trump's approval rating are still trending down. In Arizona and North Carolina Trump is 9 points under water at 44/53. Maine is 39/57 and Colorado 40/58. Those 4 seats continue to look like solid pickup opportunities.

Iowa 47/50, Georgia 47/49, and Texas 47/49 are the next group. If the democrats pick up even 1 of those in addition to the first 4 they will be in good shape.

Kansas 50/46, South Carolina 50/47, and Montana 51/46 are still leaning toward Trump but trending toward toss-up territory where the Senate candidates could matter. These are long shots along with Kentucky and keeping Alabama.

Note that Ohio flipped in the recent polling so if the current Civiqs polls reflected the final electoral college it would be 419 to 119. 

https://civiqs.com/results/approve_president_trump?annotations=true&uncertainty=true&zoomIn=true&utm_campaign=ticker 

[SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3,861]

oh no.

 

 

[Js1 85,333]

Just now, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

oh no.

 

 

House, not Senate.

He has 4 options:

AZ-9: D+22
AZ-1: D+8
AZ-7: D+72
AZ-3: D+28

AZ-1 looks like where he'd carpet bag and run but this is a district that voted for the D candidate by 8 when Trump won the district by 1.1 in 2016.  

[Chuckie Finster 22,694]

7 minutes ago, Js1 said:

House, not Senate.

He has 4 options:

AZ-9: D+22
AZ-1: D+8
AZ-7: D+72
AZ-3: D+28

AZ-1 looks like where he'd carpet bag and run but this is a district that voted for the D candidate by 8 when Trump won the district by 1.1 in 2016.  

Schilling has all of the terribleness of Trump without any of the cult-leader charisma.  He wouldn't make it out of the primary.

[DigglerontheHoof 21,199]

He’s basically CJK5H without the body count.

[SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3,861]

18 minutes ago, DigglerontheHoof said:

He’s basically CJK5H without the body count.

that's what we need.  get spencer hall on the line to make something go viral and sabotage the campaign before it starts.

(edit to add:  GASP!  I googled spencer to see what he's up to and evidently EDSBS just shut down last month.  what an institution that was)

Edited August 13, 2019 by SuingToGetAMessageBoard?

[Voldemort86 2,259]

2 hours ago, Js1 said:

House, not Senate.

He has 4 options:

AZ-9: D+22
AZ-1: D+8
AZ-7: D+72
AZ-3: D+28

AZ-1 looks like where he'd carpet bag and run but this is a district that voted for the D candidate by 8 when Trump won the district by 1.1 in 2016.  

He could run against a republican in a red district.

[horn4life 3,760]

What the GOP can't handle is a wave election.  You are starting to see how Trump's and the GOP's economic policies fuck up the economy.  The largest deficit ever in a single year was Trumps "huge" acheivement last year.  He managed to surpass that huge deficit number in less than 2/3 the time this year!  

Farmers are gonna be fucked, and beginning the realize they are going to be fucked a very long time because of Trump's stupidity.  The markets in China are going to be like US manufacturing jobs, replaced by another source. Farm bankruptcies up 13% I saw somewhere the other day. Georgia is going to go Dem, as the black poplulation there realizes that election was stolen via voter suppression tactics. Coynyn in Texas should be safe, but don't be surprised if Beto, comes back home and takes that seat away.

Odds are we are going to be sliding into a recession, and the President will again be lying constantly and playing on racism at every turn.  Educated women love racist, lying old adulterous lecherous white guys. Don't worry, evangelicals still love racist, lying old lecherous adulterous candidates... on moral grounds of... well... Jesus!!!

GOP may hang onto the Senate, but it's going to be a hell of a lot harder than they thought.  A lot will depend on how much help the Russians give the GOP in the close elections.

Edited August 13, 2019 by horn4life

[Voldemort86 2,259]

20 minutes ago, horn4life said:

What the GOP can't handle is a wave election.  You are starting to see how Trump's and the GOP's economic policies fuck up the economy.  The largest deficit ever in a single year was Trumps "huge" acheivement last year.  He managed to surpass that huge deficit number in less than 2/3 the time this year!  

Farmers are gonna be fucked, and beginning the realize they are going to be fucked a very long time because of Trump's stupidity.  The markets in China are going to be like US manufacturing jobs, replaced by another source. Farm bankruptcies up 13% I saw somewhere the other day. Georgia is going to go Dem, as the black poplulation there realizes that election was stolen via voter suppression tactics. Coynyn in Texas should be safe, but don't be surprised if Beto, comes back home and takes that seat away.

Odds are we are going to be sliding into a recession, and the President will again be lying constantly and playing on racism at every turn.  Educated women love racist, lying old adulterous lecherous white guys. Don't worry, evangelicals still love racist, lying old lecherous adulterous candidates... on moral grounds of... well... Jesus!!!

GOP may hang onto the Senate, but it's going to be a hell of a lot harder than they thought.  A lot will depend on how much help the Russians give the GOP in the close elections.

You know what I don’t get...... why do the farmers keep voting for trump and his MAGA cult when all trump does is Fuck them over?

 

I can’t wait to hear from the orange baby how the economy is “ the democrats” fault when he’s been taking ALL of the credit for the economy over the last few years. Anyone who believes what trump says and can’t realize that he lies all the time truly is a moron.

[Pig Bellmont 8,718]

5 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

You know what I don’t get...... why do the farmers keep voting for trump and his MAGA cult when all trump does is Fuck them over?

 

I can’t wait to hear from the orange baby how the economy is “ the democrats” fault when he’s been taking ALL of the credit for the economy over the last few years. Anyone who believes what trump says and can’t realize that he lies all the time truly is a moron.

https://www.amazon.com/dp/B003J4VEM2/ref=dp-kindle-redirect?_encoding=UTF8&btkr=1

tl;dr - abortion and gays

Edited August 13, 2019 by Pig Bellmont

[Chuckie Finster 22,694]

14 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

You know what I don’t get...... why do the farmers keep voting for trump and his MAGA cult when all trump does is Fuck them over?

 

I can’t wait to hear from the orange baby how the economy is “ the democrats” fault when he’s been taking ALL of the credit for the economy over the last few years. Anyone who believes what trump says and can’t realize that he lies all the time truly is a moron.

The majority of rural America has had it drilled into their heads for decades that Democrats are the enemy.  Shit like that doesn't get turned around by a bad year or two financially.  People, especially proud folks like most mid-westerners, hate to admit that they've been made a fool.  So it's easier to just keep believing what they've always believed and, surely, eventually the "good guys" will turn it around.

[Pancho 44,797]

 

[horn4life 3,760]

Hell all you need to do is look at the last week to understand the GOP is reading polls and is scred shitless.  Moscow Mitch now wants to put gun legislation front and center?  Racism and guns colliding last week made the GOP quake. The reality that walking lockstep with a racist President whose rhetoric mirrors nearly exactly a white nationalist terrorist mass murderer's is, will be a recipe for disaster.

Exhibit #2 is trumps rapid retreat from tariffs that hurt anyone besides gutting farmer's lives.  The calls were flooding in as the data of slowing world growth is something that Trump thiks of as the US "winning." Senate candidates know better and they realize the commander of their ship, is pretending the ship isn't sinking... Basically the Senators are scared shitless, as is Trump over the economy they are destroying with debt and tariffs.

[Voldemort86 2,259]

5 hours ago, horn4life said:

Hell all you need to do is look at the last week to understand the GOP is reading polls and is scred shitless.  Moscow Mitch now wants to put gun legislation front and center?  Racism and guns colliding last week made the GOP quake. The reality that walking lockstep with a racist President whose rhetoric mirrors nearly exactly a white nationalist terrorist mass murderer's is, will be a recipe for disaster.

Exhibit #2 is trumps rapid retreat from tariffs that hurt anyone besides gutting farmer's lives.  The calls were flooding in as the data of slowing world growth is something that Trump thiks of as the US "winning." Senate candidates know better and they realize the commander of their ship, is pretending the ship isn't sinking... Basically the Senators are scared shitless, as is Trump over the economy they are destroying with debt and tariffs.

All these spineless shitheads care about is getting re-elected and obstructing Democrats. If anything threatens their ability to do that, then and ONLY then will they actually be willing to do their jobs and pass meaningful legislation for the American people.

the rash of republican retirements in the house ( particularly in Texas) will continue and we don’t know how many will step down before the months over. Marchant ( Fort Worth suburb), Hurd ( SA suburb), and Olson ( Houston suburb).

educated people in general seem to hate this administration and their “ rural / block everything” style of government. Supposedly, they think  passing some kind of gun reform will help them in the suburbs and Trump knows it’s going to hurt him at the polls if his retarded trade war directly affects the American people.

these republicans are the biggest douchebags I’ve ever seen in my life tho. We have a perfectly good gun control bill that has passed the house already, it expands background checks.

The only problem is trump and the douchebag repubs in congress might not want to go that far, and if they do , they will want to make sure republicans get ALL the credit. You will probably see a red flag bill come from the senate put forth by that loser Lindsey Graham and the repubs will “ pressure” the democratic house into passing it, even tho the repub senate hasn’t passed meaningful legislation ALL YEAR long. The trump press conference to sign the bill will feature him giving credit to house minority leader Kevin McCarthy and senate majority leader Mitch mcconnell. They will say that they deeply care about the American people and our values. They will probably take some veiled shot at socialism. These people are truly terrible and shitty people, they will take a crisis and try to turn it into some political gain instead of just doing what is right.

Edited August 14, 2019 by Voldemort86

[Hugo Stiglitz 23,367]

Things not going well for Joni Ernst.

[Voldemort86 2,259]

5 hours ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Things not going well for Joni Ernst.

She sucks. She’s a mindless yes vote for trump, but I don’t see a single minority in those videos and the farmers who are getting screwed by trump are too stupid to do anything about it. 

 

 

[Horn Under a Bad Sign 20,398]

Cornyn tweeted a ridiculous tweet  to Chuck Shumer about how it's summer, which is the reason it's hot.   Here's a great response.  I wonder if Cornyn will take the Aggie up on his offer?

 

 

Edited August 19, 2019 by Horn Under a Bad Sign

[Nice Guy Eddie 13,512]

Cornyn almost assuredly knows about climate but that isn’t what plays to his base. 

[bolverk 29,672]

26 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Cornyn almost assuredly knows about climate but that isn’t what plays to his base. 

Of course, he does and, of course, he is.

"There is a growing consensus the days of ignoring this issue are over," Cornyn, the former Republican majority whip, said in a conference call with reporters. "If we all agree that reducing emissions is important I think we have a better way of approaching that than the Green New Deal."

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.chron.com/business/energy/amp/Cornyn-says-days-of-ignoring-climate-change-are-13848205.php

 

[gmr548 16,580]

Cornyn tweeted a ridiculous tweet  to Chuck Shumer about how it's summer, which is the reason it's hot.   Here's a great response.  I wonder if Cornyn will take the Aggie up on his offer?

 
 

Challenging a Tried and true GOP lifer/Trump shill on climate, with data and facts, is probably a good way to get terminated by aggy.

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk

[SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3,861]

Quote

Sen. Martha McSally (R-Ariz.) trails her Democratic opponent for the first time, according to a new survey, as President Trump's approval rating falls in the key swing state.

 

Retired astronaut Mark Kelly leads McSally, the retired fighter pilot-turned-politician, by a 46 percent to 41 percent margin, according to the poll conducted by OH Predictive Insights, a Phoenix-based pollster, and released first to The Hill.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/458031-arizona-poll-shows-kelly-overtaking-mcsally

[Patrick Bateman 3,913]

On 8/17/2019 at 1:20 PM, Voldemort86 said:

She sucks. She’s a mindless yes vote for trump, but I don’t see a single minority in those videos and the farmers who are getting screwed by trump are too stupid to do anything about it. 

 

 

Last time I looked she had a pretty favorable rating (almost 60% a couple of months ago) in Iowa and had moved off being very vulnerable.  The Dems' leading candidate has some baggage (voter fraud).  A long time to go, but she's in a good position as of today, of course, the farmers keep getting beat up by tariffs so there is time for movement.

 

 

[Message Board User 12,395]

9 hours ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/458031-arizona-poll-shows-kelly-overtaking-mcsally

Are we prepared for a world where Arizona has two Democratic senators?

(though I'm sure Sinema would fail the Squad's and half this board's Democratic purity test, so not sure you can count her)

[cactusflinthead 27,598]

3 minutes ago, Message Board User said:

Are we prepared for a world where Arizona has two Democratic senators?

(though I'm sure Sinema would fail the Squad's and half this board's Democratic purity test, so not sure you can count her)

If she doesn't rubber stamp everything the Rs throw out there it's an improvement. 

[Voldemort86 2,259]

12 hours ago, Message Board User said:

Are we prepared for a world where Arizona has two Democratic senators?

(though I'm sure Sinema would fail the Squad's and half this board's Democratic purity test, so not sure you can count her)

I think sinema gets away with a lot because she’s the first democratic win in Arizona since........ forever. 

[Js1 85,333]

Boom. Goodbye Gardner. DSCC can now focus money towards Maine, Arizona, North Carolina and Texas/Georgia/Iowa. 

Doug Jones needs to retain his own brand without DSCC help  

 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13,512]

7 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Boom. Goodbye Gardner. DSCC can now focus money towards Maine, Arizona, North Carolina and Texas/Georgia/Iowa. 

Doug Jones needs to retain his own brand without DSCC help  

 

Doug Jones is going to have a tough time with trump at the top of the ticket.  

[Js1 85,333]

6 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Doug Jones is going to have a tough time with trump at the top of the ticket.  

If you assume he's a loser, Democrats need:

Colorado + Maine + Arizona + North Carolina - Alabama = 50.  +VP gives you the "majority."   Still need to heavily contest Montana, Georgia, Iowa, Alaska, Kansas and Texas.   

[Js1 85,333]

I should add sometimes you "make" your own brand.  Just 10 years ago, we regularly split tickets.

2008 - 

Mark Begich wins in Alaska as McCain carries the state - Begich +23 from the presidential race
Mark Pryor wins in Arkansas as McCain carries the state - n/a (Pryor only faced a Green candidate)
Mary Landrieu wins in Louisiana as McCain carries the state - Landrieu +25
Susan Collins wins in Maine as Obama carries the state - Collins +40
Max Baucus wins in Montana as McCain carries the state - Baucus +48
Jay Rockefeller wins in WV as McCain carries the state - Rockefeller +40

2012 - 

Claire McCaskill wins in Missouri as Romney carries the state - McCaskill +25
Dean Heller wins in Nevada as Obama carries the state - Heller +8
Heidi Heitkampt wins in North Dakota as Romney carries the state - Heitkamp +21
Joe Manchin wins in WV as Romney carries the state - Manchin +50

2016 was the first race since the Senate went to popular-election in 1913 in which every Senate race mirrored the presidential results in terms of winning party.  First time in 103 years....

[SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3,861]

1 hour ago, Js1 said:

I should add sometimes you "make" your own brand.  Just 10 years ago, we regularly split tickets.

2008 - 

Mark Begich wins in Alaska as McCain carries the state - Begich +23 from the presidential race
Mark Pryor wins in Arkansas as McCain carries the state - n/a (Pryor only faced a Green candidate)
Mary Landrieu wins in Louisiana as McCain carries the state - Landrieu +25
Susan Collins wins in Maine as Obama carries the state - Collins +40
Max Baucus wins in Montana as McCain carries the state - Baucus +48
Jay Rockefeller wins in WV as McCain carries the state - Rockefeller +40

2012 - 

Claire McCaskill wins in Missouri as Romney carries the state - McCaskill +25
Dean Heller wins in Nevada as Obama carries the state - Heller +8
Heidi Heitkampt wins in North Dakota as Romney carries the state - Heitkamp +21
Joe Manchin wins in WV as Romney carries the state - Manchin +50

2016 was the first race since the Senate went to popular-election in 1913 in which every Senate race mirrored the presidential results in terms of winning party.  First time in 103 years....

why come were we electing senators and president in 1913?

[SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3,861]

oh.  i understand now.  

[Voldemort86 2,259]

2 hours ago, Js1 said:

If you assume he's a loser, Democrats need:

Colorado + Maine + Arizona + North Carolina - Alabama = 50.  +VP gives you the "majority."   Still need to heavily contest Montana, Georgia, Iowa, Alaska, Kansas and Texas.   

I would guess that Colorado, Maine, and Arizona look good for us right now. Trump will wash away Jones with his MAGA retards voting in Alabama.

 

All of the others seem like longshots. I’m still crossing my fingers that bullock will run in Montana.

Edited August 22, 2019 by Voldemort86

[Js1 85,333]

1 minute ago, Voldemort86 said:

I would guess that Colorado, Maine, and Arizona look good for us right now. Trump will wash away Jones with his MAGA retards voting in Alabama.

 

All of the others seem like longshots. I’m still crossing my fingers that bullock will run in Montana.

Yes on Bullock.

Also note that Tillis is not popular. 

[406W30th 1,111]

Hickenlooper is a centrist toad but obviously a D win would be great. He's also got a damn fine campaign logo:

 

[Doc Sam Beckett 5,793]

4 hours ago, Js1 said:

Yes on Bullock.

Also note that Tillis is not popular. 

Yep NC should be front and center for the DNC efforts.....so much GOP corruption to highlight. 

[Voldemort86 2,259]

1 hour ago, Doc Sam Beckett said:

Yep NC should be front and center for the DNC efforts.....so much GOP corruption to highlight. 

I’m still waiting on the court case involving North Carolina’s congressional districts. Odds don’t look good for the GOP. I bet they will have to redraw them for 2020.

Edited August 22, 2019 by Voldemort86

[GopherRock 1,765]

Former right-wing talk radio shock jock Jason Lewis officially declared his candidacy for the Republican nomination to take on Tina Smith in 2020. This is Al Franken's old seat. 

In other news, Tina Smith was instantly heavily favored to win a full term. 

[RayDog 682]

I posted on the Moscow Mitch thread but it deserves to be stated here that in a recent poll he had a 39/56 approval rating.

The poll also showed Democrats ahead in the 2019 Kentucky Governor (9 pts), Attorney General (7 pts), and Secretary of State (15 pts) races.

I don't want to get too excited about the state of Kentucky possibly flipping to the Democrats, but if it did there is no telling how bad the 2020 election will be for Republicans overall.

[Hugo Stiglitz 23,367]

Lol kiss of death.

 

[Voldemort86 2,259]

3 hours ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Lol kiss of death.

 

Trump really doesn’t pay attention sometimes. I doubt the people of Colorado could give 2 shits about being tough on crime, border security, and gun rights. They’re the first state to legalize marijuana!

[Chuckie Finster 22,694]

9 hours ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Lol kiss of death.

 

... is Trump insinuating that Hickenlooper won't even make it out of the Primary?  Lolol

[Js1 85,333]

31 minutes ago, Chuckie Finster said:

... is Trump insinuating that Hickenlooper won't even make it out of the Primary?  Lolol

Yeah, he's only leading it by 50 points.  Big trouble!

Gardner is toast. I cannot wait to move to Denver this year and vote against Gardner. 

[High Plains Drifter 11,049]

 

6 hours ago, Voldemort86 said:

Trump really doesn’t pay attention sometimes. I doubt the people of Colorado could give 2 shits about being tough on crime, border security, and gun rights. They’re the first state to legalize marijuana!

 

Coloradoans loves them some guns.

Edited August 23, 2019 by High Plains Drifter
multiquoting from other threads fail