2020 Senate Elections

[Js1 85536]

8 minutes ago, High Plains Drifter said:

 

 

Coloradoans loves them some guns.

Aurora. Columbine.

MORE GUNS!!!!! 

[Hugo Stiglitz 23367]

Gumps 

[RayDog 682]

2 hours ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Gumps 

I am hopping for a Tuberville-Moore runoff.

[Patrick Bateman 3921]

Iowa has another Democratic challenger for Ernst.  Greenfield already has party endorsement so he'll be fighting up hill although he's considered a strong candidate.  Ernst has pretty strong approval ratings currently (57%).

 

[Js1 85536]

LETS GET STARTED

There will be an appointee by Kemp to serve until the general election and both GA seats will be up in 2020. This one to fill the seat until 2022. Similar to the McCain seat.

[Chuckie Finster 22727]

Damn, Parkinson's sucks.  Wouldn't wish that on anyone.

Edited August 28, 2019 by Chuckie Finster

[Voldemort86 2259]

26 minutes ago, Js1 said:

LETS GET STARTED

There will be an appointee by Kemp to serve until the general election and both GA seats will be up in 2020. This one to fill the seat until 2022. Similar to the McCain seat.

Wow....I don’t have any animosity towards this particular senator. I definitely feel bad for the guy.

 

with that said, Georgia is getting bluer every election. I just don’t think the repubs are going to let it happen in 2020 tho. Especially with a presidency, 2 senate seats, and more on the line. Would’ve been really nice to have Stacey abrams on the ballot.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13522]

https://www.cnn.com/2019/08/28/politics/johnny-isakson-retire/index.html

Georgia GOP senator Isakson to retire at the end of the year.  His term goes thru 2022.   Does GA have to run a special election or do they allow the governor to appoint the replacement for the remaining term?  If it's a replacement, special election, you have to think Stacey Abrams is a candidate.

EDIT: typo / broken brain.

Edited August 28, 2019 by Nice Guy Eddie

[SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3861]

Just now, Nice Guy Eddie said:

https://www.cnn.com/2019/08/28/politics/johnny-isakson-retire/index.html

Georgia GOP senator Isakson to retire at the end of the year.  His term goes thru 2022.   Does GA have to run a special election or do they allow the governor to appoint the replacement for the remaining term?  If it's a replacement, you have to think Stacey Abrams is a candidate.

yeah, kemp is going to appoint abrams.

[cactusflinthead 27601]

Yep y'all saw it too.

Here's the AJC on it

https://www.ajc.com/blog/politics/breaking-georgia-isakson-resign-from-senate/enj87JHOCYzQmQu0Pj3cnK/

[Js1 85536]

5 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

https://www.cnn.com/2019/08/28/politics/johnny-isakson-retire/index.html

Georgia GOP senator Isakson to retire at the end of the year.  His term goes thru 2022.   Does GA have to run a special election or do they allow the governor to appoint the replacement for the remaining term?  If it's a replacement, special election, you have to think Stacey Abrams is a candidate.

EDIT: typo / broken brain.

Stacey said no already.

Kemp appoints a replacement.  Replacement serves until Nov 2020 and a special election is held.  Winner is up again in 2022 for the full term.  Same as McCain's seat (Ducey appointed McSally; McSally vs. Kelly in 2020, winner goes again in 2022). 

[kevwun 15856]

I can't say I blame her.  2 statewide elections in a 2 year period would suck balls.

[Js1 85536]

Just now, kevwun said:

I can't say I blame her.  2 statewide elections in a 2 year period would suck balls.

Like Bullock, it's v obvious she does not want to be in the Senate.  Period.  At all.

She might as well already start her 2022 governor campaign.  She's clearly going to run that one again. 

[Bateshorn 9930]

Moscow Mitch having a tough morning. 

Unfortunately for the Dems,  GA has some of the weakest electoral integrity in the country.

Edited August 28, 2019 by Bateshorn

[Js1 85536]

9 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

Moscow Mitch having a tough morning. 

Unfortunately for the Dems,  GA has some of the weakest electoral integrity in the country.

True.

But this is a full frontal assault by the Democrats on Georgia

2 Senate seats
Presidential (Trump only win by 5.7)
Defending GA-6
Going after GA-7 (R+0.15 in 2018)

 

[Bateshorn 9930]

Yeah.  Lot of Dem electoral lawyers are gonna be renting hotel space in Atlanta next November. 

[GopherRock 1765]

Does anyone gather any idea what the Democrat bench in Georgia looks like? Sure the pressure play looks good but they need good candidates other than Abrams. 

[Js1 85536]

2 minutes ago, GopherRock said:

Does anyone gather any idea what the Democrat bench in Georgia looks like? Sure the pressure play looks good but they need good candidates other than Abrams. 

You already have Ted Terry (Clarkston mayor), Teresa Tomlinson (former mayor of Columbus) and Sarah Riggs Amico (Lt. Gov nominee in 2018) going for Perdue's seat.  One or more could flip to the special election.

You also have Jason Carter (2014 governor nominee and Jimmy's grandson), Stacey Evans (lost to Abrams in the primary), Michelle Nunn (2014 senate nominee), Ossoff and Sally Yates. 

[Mrs Whiggins 13050]

39 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

Moscow Mitch having a tough morning. 

Unfortunately for the Dems,  GA has some of the weakest electoral integrity in the country a scumbag for a Governor.

FIFY

[Pig Bellmont 8725]

something is horribly wrong with voting in this country and Mitch won’t even allow for a vote prior to 2020 on election security. 

[RDCanecutter 26466]

Georgia and Alabama are basically twin brothers. Alabama wanders around the front yard and fucks pigs where everybody can see him. Georgia waits patiently inside the house, then goes out back, and fucks pigs in private.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13522]

25 minutes ago, RDCanecutter said:

Georgia and Alabama are basically twin brothers. Alabama wanders around the front yard and fucks pigs where everybody can see him. Georgia waits patiently inside the house, then goes out back, and fucks pigs in private.

[GSU&UT 1798]

What sucks is that we're going to have basically a jungle primary (at least with multiple Dem candidates) for his seat in the general election in November 2020 and almost certainly a runoff unless somehow only one R and one D candidate file.

[Js1 85536]

 

[Voldemort86 2259]

13 minutes ago, Js1 said:

 

At least he has name recognition I guess.

[Js1 85536]

I hope Michelle Nunn runs.

She only lost by 7.7 in 2014 - a strong GOP year. 

[RayDog 682]

I made a table of the potentially vulnerable Republican Senators and open positions. I included their winning percentage, loosing in McSally's case,the PVI and governor for the state noting that KY looks like it will flip in 2019. And I used their approval/disapproval numbers and Trumps net approval in their state from Morning Consult.

Senator	St	Win%	PVI	Approval	Trump	Gov
Martha McSally	AZ	47.6L	R+5	40/37	-7	R
Dan Sullivan	AK	48.0	R+9	44/29	-2	R
Cory Gardner	CO	48.2	D+1	37/37	-8	D
Thom Tillis	NC	48.8	R+3	33/35	-1	D
Joni Ernst	IA	52.1	R+3	42/38	-11	R
David Perdue	GA	52.9	R+5	48/26	+2	R
Open	KS	53.1	R+13	NA	+5	D
Open	GA	54.8	R+5	NA	+2	R
Moscow Mitch	KY	56.2	R+15	36/50	+15	D?
John Cornyn	TX	61.6	R+8	43/25	+6	R
Susan Collins	ME	68.5	D+3	45/48	-13	D

 

 

[Patrick Bateman 3921]

You have Susan Collins at almost 70% winning her seat back?

[Mrs Whiggins 13050]

54 minutes ago, Patrick Bateman said:

You have Susan Collins at almost 70% winning her seat back?

If Collins wins, that will be very disappointing. I thought Gideon had a better shot, though.

 

 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13522]

I see Collins as more vulnerable than that. Her opponent only needs to remind the voters how she’s allowed trump to have his biggest victories. And that any future scotus openings need to ensure that the liberal side is maintained for balance. 

[Js1 85536]

1 hour ago, Patrick Bateman said:

You have Susan Collins at almost 70% winning her seat back?

I think that was their last %?

[Patrick Bateman 3921]

9 minutes ago, Js1 said:

I think that was their last %?

Ah.  Got it.  Not projected winning percentage, just last election.  So basically just data.  Carry on.

 

[Js1 85536]

14 minutes ago, Patrick Bateman said:

Ah.  Got it.  Not projected winning percentage, just last election.  So basically just data.  Carry on.

 

For most of them, their last race was a GOP favored midterm year. So not the best comparison. 

[RayDog 682]

3 hours ago, Js1 said:

For most of them, their last race was a GOP favored midterm year. So not the best comparison. 

The point is if they did poorly in 2014 they are vulnerable now, unless they had a big jump in popularity. Even if they won by 5 or 6 points they are vulnerable in today's environment.

[Patrick Bateman 3921]

For whatever you think of him, if he runs for the Governor's mansion, that's another lost seat most likely.

 

[Js1 85536]

5 hours ago, Patrick Bateman said:

For whatever you think of him, if he runs for the Governor's mansion, that's another lost seat most likely.

 

It’s confusing. If the leg change the law - special. If not, he appoints his replacement. If he loses, he goes back to the senate. Former governor Earl Ray Tomblin would be a great candidate in a special or via appointment. 

[Js1 85536]

5 hours ago, Patrick Bateman said:

For whatever you think of him, if he runs for the Governor's mansion, that's another lost seat most likely.

 

It’s confusing. If the leg change the law - special. If not, he appoints his replacement. If he loses, he goes back to the senate. Former governor Earl Ray Tomblin would be a great candidate in a special or via appointment. 

[Js1 85536]

And Schumer can unclench.  Manchin is staying put. 

If the Democrats win some combo of Arizona/NC/Iowa/Colorado/Kansas/Texas/Georgia (+4) and lose Alabama (-1) but win the Presidency (50 + tiebreaker), he will be the most powerful man in Washington.    

Edited September 3, 2019 by Js1

[Hugo Stiglitz 23367]

Good, although he sucks.

[Js1 85536]

He’s in 

 

[Hugo Stiglitz 23367]

Hope there are some alternatives to Ossoff 

he’s okay but georgia could do better.

[Js1 85536]

7 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Hope there are some alternatives to Ossoff 

he’s okay but georgia could do better.

There will be plenty. Remember, the Georgia special is jungle rules. Top 2 to the runoff unless someone clears 50

[Js1 85536]

Scratch that. He’s running against Perdue. NOT the open seat, jungle special. *fingers crosses for Michelle Nunn*

[cactusflinthead 27601]

20 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Hope there are some alternatives to Ossoff 

he’s okay but georgia could do better.

Ok, give up the oppo research. I'm game. Is he Manchin? 

[Hugo Stiglitz 23367]

Just now, cactusflinthead said:

Ok, give up the oppo research. I'm game. Is he Manchin? 

No, it’s nothing like that and he might make a fine Senator but he didn’t impress me in the 2017 special election.  

“Ossoff running for Senate in Georgia!”

I’m like, “Can Andrew Gillum please move to Georgia and landslide this thing instead?” 

I have to think there are better candidates in Georgia than Ossoff. 

[cactusflinthead 27601]

11 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

No, it’s nothing like that and he might make a fine Senator but he didn’t impress me in the 2017 special election.  

“Ossoff running for Senate in Georgia!”

I’m like, “Can Andrew Gillum please move to Georgia and landslide this thing instead?” 

I have to think there are better candidates in Georgia than Ossoff. 

Yeah and the guy from Montana is still chasing a pipe dream. And don't get me started on Beto. Maybe MJ can get it done, but...you gotta play with the cards your dealt. 

Where does Beto go from here? Is he fighting for the VP spot?

Mixing threads. 

Y'all see where Joe Kennedy is polling better than Markey?

[GSU&UT 1798]

34 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

No, it’s nothing like that and he might make a fine Senator but he didn’t impress me in the 2017 special election.  

“Ossoff running for Senate in Georgia!”

I’m like, “Can Andrew Gillum please move to Georgia and landslide this thing instead?” 

I have to think there are better candidates in Georgia than Ossoff. 

The others that have announced aren't that much more progressive honestly. Keep in mind the campaign he ran was supposed to be the first true test against Trump in a special election where turnout was going to be lower than any November election. I lived in GA-06 at the time and voted for him (met him briefly at a campaign event), he will have a ton of name recognition, especially in the Atlanta metro, and hopefully will run on more than "cut government waste."

I think he'll run on more (probably marginally) progressive issues, he's already come out against Citizens United which was more than anything he said back in 2017.

McBath who beat Handel isn't that much different other than being for gun reform, she hasn't even come out in favor of impeachment because this district must be too important for Pelosi to gamble on. I really have been disappointed by her.

 

[Mrs Whiggins 13050]

How many of the voters will make the Giffords-Kelly link versus how many will respond to the, "take muh guns" fear?

[Js1 85536]

10 hours ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

I have to think there are better candidates in Georgia than Ossoff. 

Running to challenge Perdue:

• Sarah Riggs Amico - Lt. Gov nominee in 2018 (lost by 3.2)
• Jon Ossoff - 2017 GA-6 nominee (lost by 3.56 in runoff)
• Ted Terry - mayor of Clarkston
• Teresa Tomlinson - former mayor of Columbus

Running for the open seat: no one declared yet; potential nominees include: 

• Jason Carter - Gov nominee in 2014 (lost by 7.8 in strong GOP year)
• Lucy McBath - GA-6 rep (won by 1.02 in 2018)
• Michelle Nunn - Senate nominee in 2014 (lost by 7.7 in strong GOP year)

[Horn Under a Bad Sign 20478]

I see that in addition to #moscowmitch and #lenningradlindsey,  #comradecornyn is beginning to gain traction on Twitter.