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Posted

The scale of the G.O.P.’s challenge has crystallized in the last week. With 26 million Americans now having filed for unemployment benefits, Mr. Trump’s standing in states that he carried in 2016 looks increasingly wobbly: New surveys show him trailing significantly in battleground states like Michigan and Pennsylvania, and he is even narrowly behind in must-win Florida.

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In Maine, for example, Senator Susan Collins brought in $2.4 million while her little-known rival, the House speaker Sara Gideon, raised more than $7 million. Even more concerning to Republicans is the lesser-known Thom Tillis of North Carolina. Republican officials are especially irritated at Mr. Tillis because he has little small-dollar support and raised only $2.1 million, which was more than doubled by his Democratic opponent.

“These Senate first-quarter fund-raising numbers are a serious wake-up call for the G.O.P.,” said Scott Reed, the top political strategist at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/25/us/politics/trump-election-briefings.html

Posted
  On 4/25/2020 at 6:17 PM, cactusflinthead said:

The scale of the G.O.P.’s challenge has crystallized in the last week. With 26 million Americans now having filed for unemployment benefits, Mr. Trump’s standing in states that he carried in 2016 looks increasingly wobbly: New surveys show him trailing significantly in battleground states like Michigan and Pennsylvania, and he is even narrowly behind in must-win Florida.

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In Maine, for example, Senator Susan Collins brought in $2.4 million while her little-known rival, the House speaker Sara Gideon, raised more than $7 million. Even more concerning to Republicans is the lesser-known Thom Tillis of North Carolina. Republican officials are especially irritated at Mr. Tillis because he has little small-dollar support and raised only $2.1 million, which was more than doubled by his Democratic opponent.

“These Senate first-quarter fund-raising numbers are a serious wake-up call for the G.O.P.,” said Scott Reed, the top political strategist at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/25/us/politics/trump-election-briefings.html

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I don't think Sara Gideon is "little-known."  She's the speaker of the Maine House of Representatives.  That's a pretty big gig in a small state.

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Posted

Little known outside of Maine perhaps?

Look, these are the same people that gave us green pea guacamole. They are sometimes only vaguely aware that there is a world outside the confines of their state. 

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Posted
  On 4/25/2020 at 6:17 PM, cactusflinthead said:

The scale of the G.O.P.’s challenge has crystallized in the last week. With 26 million Americans now having filed for unemployment benefits, Mr. Trump’s standing in states that he carried in 2016 looks increasingly wobbly: New surveys show him trailing significantly in battleground states like Michigan and Pennsylvania, and he is even narrowly behind in must-win Florida.

----

 

In Maine, for example, Senator Susan Collins brought in $2.4 million while her little-known rival, the House speaker Sara Gideon, raised more than $7 million. Even more concerning to Republicans is the lesser-known Thom Tillis of North Carolina. Republican officials are especially irritated at Mr. Tillis because he has little small-dollar support and raised only $2.1 million, which was more than doubled by his Democratic opponent.

“These Senate first-quarter fund-raising numbers are a serious wake-up call for the G.O.P.,” said Scott Reed, the top political strategist at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/25/us/politics/trump-election-briefings.html

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i'm sure it's been mentioned before, but the internet/paypal/venmo/actblue/whatever has really turned fundraising into a national thing.  i can sit in la and read about senate races and bitch about mcconnell and grab my phone to donate to 5 different races in 5 different states for candidates i've barely heard of. 

it obviously wasn't like this 20 years ago, and i don't think it was like this 6-8 years ago.  for a candidate to access that money, it would have to come straight from the dnc or dccc i would guess.

i would be very curious to see the breakdown of where donations are coming from for opponents of collins, graham, mcconnell, etc.  i would also like to watch video of them complaining about it while i eat white cheddar cheetos and drink basil hayden. 

Posted

Well, I learned about two new things today: green pea guacamole and something called Basil Hayden (actually three things because I didn't know about the BB player either). I don't mind "fluidity" in cooking (per @cactusflinthead's NYT article) as I love the great melting pot of world cooking but I respect the original recipes, too. Life's too short to get all fussy about it, IMO, and I remember when grocery stores in the midwest barely stocked the little dry chowmein noodles and now they have sushi bars.

Back to the topic, definitely the ease with which I can donate to candidates now has me a little more willing to go outside my area when I have a little extra to give. I gave to Warren as a matter of course, but trying to topple McConnell was a vengeance donation.

Posted
  On 4/21/2020 at 1:50 AM, Wulaw Horn said:

I mean, I think Obama is a thin skinned narcissist but I did vote in the Dem primary for him (lived in Sheila Jackson’s Lee’s district) in 2008 because I thought he was a better human being than Hillary Clinton so yeah, whatever. 

Of course, the bullshit desire to throw racism at anyone who disagrees with you totally didn’t lead to the backlash that got Trump elected or anything, but you just go ahead and keep being part of the solution there chief, thanks much. 

As to Biden I said possible scumbag and Trump known scumbag. If Biden is guilty of rape (which I sort of doubt) then he’s every bit the scumbag Trump is, but I out about as much credence into that allegation as I did into the one against kavanagh which is to say- not particularly much but also not something that would shock me or rock my world if I found out its true. At a minimum I think Biden is probably creepy and lecherous and if that’s it he’s prostate cancer to Trumps pancreatic cancer. 

I don’t know you so I’m sure you’ve been on the boards for 5 minutes tops, but feel free to fuck right off with your race baiting. 

I wrote a post in 2008 talking about my happiness in seeing a black man get elected in America as an aspirational thing for a minority group and I will feel the same way if it’s a woman (particularly since it’s not Hillary who would be riding her husbands coattails- I want my daughters to have a better life lesson than “you can accomplish anything as long as you marry well”).  If it’s a liberal woman I will immediately go on rooting for her not to accomplish any objective I think is harmful for the country and root for anything that does happen to go well for the country, but then again that’s because I’m a rational adult human being capable of having two thoughts in my head at one time. 

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Obama is not a narcissist. The current president is. Negged for completely dumbfuckery. 

Posted

Turtle getting slammed for some recent GOP huddle convo where he says they have to appoint more judges ASAP.   While he is getting heat for not prioritizing Covid issues, and the implication of insensitivity to deaths and suffering, I was thinking this morning that it might just be that Mitch has access to really great internal polling, and that the GOP  losing the Senate and/or POTUS is more of a likelihood than they are admitting.  

His private comments can be read as more deliberate Realpolitik response to a polling threat than off-the-wall Mitch being insensitive.

Posted (edited)
  On 4/26/2020 at 6:53 PM, Gatorubet said:

Turtle getting slammed for some recent GOP huddle convo where he says they have to appoint more judges ASAP.   While he is getting heat for not prioritizing Covid issues, and the implication of insensitivity to deaths and suffering, I was thinking this morning that it might just be that Mitch has access to really great internal polling, and that the GOP  losing the Senate and/or POTUS is more of a likelihood than they are admitting.  

His private comments can be read as more deliberate Realpolitik response to a polling threat than off-the-wall Mitch being insensitive.

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https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/25/us/politics/trump-election-briefings.html?action=click&module=Top Stories&pgtype=Homepage

  Reveal hidden contents

 

Edited by gmr548
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Posted

I can’t be the only one who feels good about Montana and Kansas (if Kobach is nominee) right? Kansasansnans’s already rejected Kobach in 2018 and Montana has a history of voting D at statewide level, especially in the Senate. To me, these races have a much better value for fundraising if the end goal is Senate control. Much, much, much cheaper than than both of Georgia’s, NC or Iowa.

Posted
  On 4/26/2020 at 10:22 PM, StassneyHorn said:

I can’t be the only one who feels good about Montana and Kansas (if Kobach is nominee) right? Kansasansnans’s already rejected Kobach in 2018 and Montana has a history of voting D at statewide level, especially in the Senate. To me, these races have a much better value for fundraising if the end goal is Senate control. Much, much, much cheaper than than both of Georgia’s, NC or Iowa.

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I'd put NC above those. They've got a pretty popular Democratic governor and Joe Biden's strength among black voters is obviously well documented. Real opportunity to go 3 for 3 there. and I think you have to invest accordingly. Agree on Georgia and Iowa. Waste of time. MT or KS with Kobach is better than either one of those.

Posted
  On 4/26/2020 at 10:43 PM, gmr548 said:

I'd put NC above those. They've got a pretty popular Democratic governor and Joe Biden's strength among black voters is obviously well documented. Real opportunity to go 3 for 3 there. and I think you have to invest accordingly. Agree on Georgia and Iowa. Waste of time. MT or KS with Kobach is better than either one of those.

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I don't think Iowa is a waste of time.  Ernst is really, really unpopular there.

And anyway--how much money can you possibly throw at Montana.  It's cheap as shit to run a statewide campaign there.  And anyway, the governor has 100% name recognition already.  So he could really run a very cheap campaign.

Posted
  On 4/26/2020 at 6:53 PM, Gatorubet said:

Turtle getting slammed for some recent GOP huddle convo where he says they have to appoint more judges ASAP.   While he is getting heat for not prioritizing Covid issues, and the implication of insensitivity to deaths and suffering, I was thinking this morning that it might just be that Mitch has access to really great internal polling, and that the GOP  losing the Senate and/or POTUS is more of a likelihood than they are admitting.  

His private comments can be read as more deliberate Realpolitik response to a polling threat than off-the-wall Mitch being insensitive.

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any rush to get shit squeezed in before november, like judicial appointments, has to be read this way.  the more they rush, the better i feel about things.

Posted

I just split my small "stimulus" check between Amy McGrath and Sara Gideon.  I've never donated to a campaign before---I'd much rather just give that money to charity.  But, hell, it couldn't be a bigger waste than the so called stimulus package the feds are spending on major corporations, and it made me fell good.

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Posted
  On 5/1/2020 at 2:30 PM, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

A case of double short coat tails there.  The president is not pulling up his senator, and the senator can't drive turnout for the president.  That's a big deal in a state right on the margins like NC.

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Yeah my brother lives in Charlotte and he said the growth in the research triangle over the last 10 years has been crazy and most of those new residents probably lean left.  @Walden Ponderer

Posted
  On 5/1/2020 at 2:30 PM, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:
A case of double short coat tails there.  The president is not pulling up his senator, and the senator can't drive turnout for the president.  That's a big deal in a state right on the margins like NC.

The more data I see on NC, the more I'm thinking Democrats go 3/3 with Cooper as the unsung hero pulling them over the line. I'm surprised Rs are non competitive in the governor's race in a state that still leans a little red.
Posted
  On 5/1/2020 at 2:41 PM, gmr548 said:


The more data I see on NC, the more I'm thinking Democrats go 3/3 with Cooper as the unsung hero pulling them over the line. I'm surprised Rs are non competitive in the governor's race in a state that still leans a little red.

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North Carolina has become exceptionally suburbanized.  As Republicans have lost the suburbs over the past five years, I don't think it's particularly surprising that they are having trouble there.

Posted
  On 4/30/2020 at 8:03 PM, GopherRock said:

News and Guts has a discussion about South Carolina. 

https://www.newsandguts.com/is-lindsey-graham-in-trouble/

IMHO if the blue wave is makes Leningrad Lindsey sweat out a photo finish, the GOP has already lost control of the chamber. 

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this seems significant...

http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/495337-former-lindsey-graham-supporter-flips-to-back-democratic-opponent-in-senate

 

Posted
  On 5/1/2020 at 2:40 PM, Message Board User said:

Yeah my brother lives in Charlotte and he said the growth in the research triangle over the last 10 years has been crazy and most of those new residents probably lean left.  @Walden Ponderer

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Gonna be a weird dynamic with the Governor's race, too. Dan Forrest (brilliant add campaign -- nested "Run" "Forrest" "Run" yard signs) is at the forefront of the nutjobs protesting the stay at home order. Forest seems like he has good campaign staff, but he himself is a few brain cells shy of sentience. I could see Roy Cooper pulling up whoever the Dem nominee is (and I'll only believe it's Biden if he manages to stay out of the hospital until November). North Carolina will officially be weird no matter what, though.

  • Like 1
Posted
  On 4/26/2020 at 6:53 PM, Gatorubet said:

Turtle getting slammed for some recent GOP huddle convo where he says they have to appoint more judges ASAP.   While he is getting heat for not prioritizing Covid issues, and the implication of insensitivity to deaths and suffering, I was thinking this morning that it might just be that Mitch has access to really great internal polling, and that the GOP  losing the Senate and/or POTUS is more of a likelihood than they are admitting.  

His private comments can be read as more deliberate Realpolitik response to a polling threat than off-the-wall Mitch being insensitive.

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It's two fold: Nominees, and if the House stays away for an extended period of time, the drop date for the Congressional Review Act is getting earlier and earlier in 2020.  The GOP may want to challenge a CRA override of a rule by arguing the Senate being in town constitutes congress being in session and starts the CRA clock.

Posted
  On 5/5/2020 at 9:15 PM, Message Board User said:

 

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So to recap, the recent NC Senate polls have been:

Civiqs (5/2-4):             Cunningham 50% / Tillis 41%   (D+9)

Meredith (4/27-28):    Cunningham 44% / Tillis 34%   (D+9)

SurveyUSA (4/23-26): Cunningham 41% / Tillis 39%   (D+2)

PPP (4/14-15):             Cunningham 47% / Tillis 40%   (D+7)

Based on the recent polls out of AZ, NC and CO, it's feeling like my money should go to Gideon out in Maine and maybe Bullock in Montana (though he may not need the money due to name recognition).   Then again, out of pure animus, part of me thinks I should throw some extra $$ to Harrison and McGrath.  Starting to love the way the Senate map is shaping up.

  • Like 2
Posted

I didn't know this until I just looked it up (or maybe I just forgot), but Richard Burr has already announced he will not be seeking re-election.

Fairly good chance that in the next few years the Dems will hold the governors office and both senator seats from NC.

Posted
  On 5/5/2020 at 9:46 PM, Gap03 said:
So to recap, the recent NC Senate polls have been:
Civiqs (5/2-4):             Cunningham 50% / Tillis 41%   (D+9)
Meredith (4/27-28):    Cunningham 44% / Tillis 34%   (D+9)
SurveyUSA (4/23-26): Cunningham 41% / Tillis 39%   (D+2)
PPP (4/14-15):             Cunningham 47% / Tillis 40%   (D+7)
Based on the recent polls out of AZ, NC and CO, it's feeling like my money should go to Gideon out in Maine and maybe Bullock in Montana (though he may not need the money due to name recognition).   Then again, out of pure animus, part of me thinks I should throw some extra $$ to Harrison and McGrath.  Starting to love the way the Senate map is shaping up.

I didn't realize Cunningham had opened up that kind of lead. Hmm. Long way to November but I'm really looking what I'm seeing out of NC. People don't realize how critical that state is to Trump's victory.
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Posted (edited)
  On 5/5/2020 at 9:15 PM, Message Board User said:

 

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I don’t know much about the NC senate race, but supposedly Tillis is unpopular with either the trumpkin base or the moderate a GOP / suburban base.

either way, I think NC should be more blue tilted than normal. Neither of North Carolina’s senators are liked at all.

Edited by Voldemort86
Posted
  On 5/5/2020 at 9:15 PM, Message Board User said:

 

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I'm going to throw this out there, and I'm too lazy to do the research to back it up.  But I think even this far out a challenger that hits 50% in polls has to have a very high likelihood of winning.  Barring some sort of significant scandal, it indicates such extreme dissatisfaction with the incumbent and/or such extreme support for the challenger that it makes it nearly impossible for the incumbent (who presumably has 100% name recognition) to overcome.

  • Like 1
Posted
  On 5/6/2020 at 12:21 AM, Message Board User said:
Yeah I think anybody calling Colorado a swing state is kidding themselves.  For better or worse, that is a deep blue state.
Yeah I don't get that shit. It's a mirror image of Washington state and Oregon at this point.
Posted
  On 4/27/2020 at 3:54 PM, Ghost of LL said:

I don't think Iowa is a waste of time.  Ernst is really, really unpopular there.

And anyway--how much money can you possibly throw at Montana.  It's cheap as shit to run a statewide campaign there.  And anyway, the governor has 100% name recognition already.  So he could really run a very cheap campaign.

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I think you're spot on, GoLL.

 

 

 

Posted (edited)
  On 5/6/2020 at 8:21 PM, henrygandorf said:

jesus, if iowa happens...

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Maybe it’s not that farfetched.

 

I remember that loser chuck grassley had to chime in to the 2018 Iowa governor race and “ remind” the people of Iowa that the governor would appoint his replacement if something happened to him. 
 

It’s unfortunate, but the GOP did succeed in electing some terrible governors in 2018. Kristi Noem is dumb as a fucking rock, Kim Reynolds isn’t much brighter, Brian kemp thought the virus didn’t spread asymptomatically.....in late March. Ron Detrumpis doesn’t wipe his ass before trump tells him he can.

anyway, Iowa has proven that it can still be close. At the same time, there are farmers in Iowa who are literally getting shit on and still screaming MAGA at the top of their retarded lungs so I guess we shall see.

Edited by Voldemort86
Posted
  On 5/6/2020 at 8:21 PM, henrygandorf said:

jesus, if iowa happens...

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Hell, yeah.  If things really unravel for the Rs in the fall, they could end up scrambling for campaign money to defend all the seats that could end up in play.  Imagine if the polls continue to grow worse for the most contested R seats:

  1. Colorado (D+15)
  2. Arizona  (D+6)
  3. North Carolina (D+6)
  4. Maine (D+2)
  5. Montana 
  6. Iowa (R+1)
  7. Kansas 
  8. Georgia SE (?)
  9. Kentucky (R + 3)
  10. South Carolina

Where would they concentrate their money?  If McConnell is controlling the purse strings, you can be damn sure that he'd be keeping a fair chunk of change if McGrath is in striking distance.  I like the idea of keeping him sweating enough that he's not making rational choices in that regard. 

I'd fucking lose my mind if we were able to get rid of Trump, McConnell, Collins, McSally, Ernst, Loeffler and Graham all in one election.  

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