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2020 Senate Elections


Patrick Bateman

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  On 6/4/2020 at 6:24 PM, SydneyCarton said:
I don’t know shit about NC politics or who these dudes are, care to give some cliff’s notes? How did this dude fuck shit up for the Republicans in NC?

He was the governor that supported transgender bathroom bill. That cost him the election and now NC seems to quite like its Democratic governor. Thr governor appoints supreme court justices, and the NC board of elections is composed of three members of the governor's party and two from the opposition.  NC GOP is known nationally for its dirty politics - ridiculous gerrymanders, voter suppression, etc. They'd totally locked a swing state down this way. Everything states like GA, TX, and WI know about this, they learned from the NC GOP.

 

So for the potty bill, which backfired anyway and pissed off voters, he handed Democrats control of the executive branch, probably for eight years, which includes the supreme court appointments and board of elections. Democrats will be very powerful during redistricting now, though thevfeds did force some changes to their congressional districts anyway. He traded the GOP's death grip on the state to govern where people pee.

 

 

 

 

 

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  On 6/4/2020 at 7:30 PM, gmr548 said:

He was the governor that supported transgender bathroom bill. That cost him the election and now NC seems to quite like its Democratic governor. Thr governor appoints supreme court justices, and the NC board of elections is composed of three members of the governor's party and two from the opposition.  NC GOP is known nationally for its dirty politics - ridiculous gerrymanders, voter suppression, etc. They'd totally locked a swing state down this way. Everything states like GA, TX, and WI know about this, they learned from the NC GOP.

 

So for the potty bill, which backfired anyway and pissed off voters, he handed Democrats control of the executive branch, probably for eight years, which includes the supreme court appointments and board of elections. Democrats will be very powerful during redistricting now, though thevfeds did force some changes to their congressional districts anyway. He traded the GOP's death grip on the state to govern where people pee.

 

 

 

 

 

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The thing that pissed people off nationally is North Carolina is a very close state. The outcome is usually decided by a few points in elections. The number of seats should reflect the partisanship of the state.

 

we saw elections in the 2010 decade where the North Carolina Democrats would win over 50% of the statewide vote and republicans would still win 10 out of the states 13 congressional districts.
 

I don’t say this often, but thank god thomas hofeller is dead and his archives got exposed to the world. The man was pure evil. He was a GOP mastermind when it come to rigging elections. His whole purpose was to make voting and American elections as powerless as possible. What do you get when you don’t have to worry about being voted out?  Crazy loons who are obsessed with bathrooms like Dan Patrick.

Edited by Voldemort86
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It should also be known that Thomas hofeller was behind the census question scam. The attempt by the GOP to not count illegals towards redistricting even tho the constitution clearly states that they do count and we’ve been counting them for decades. 
 

thankfully, the Supreme Court voted it down, but that orange fucker in the White House was going to use the census question to rig the maps in the GOP’s favor as much as possible. Fat ass Trump is always looking for ways to cheat while yelling that the other side is cheating without any facts or evidence to support his accusations.

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  On 6/5/2020 at 1:17 PM, Message Board User said:

 

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In the same poll, Ernst has a favorable/unfavorable rating of 38/45 and Greenfield is 36/23.  Obviously many Iowans don't know the opponent or have any opinion about her. 

If the GOP has Iowa as their line of defense, they're in trouble.  They need Ernst to win without much national support so they can focus on the other states.

By all measures Ernst should be winning by 10-15 points.  The GOP loves to have a younger, conservative, ex-military woman that won her only senate race by 8. They've promoted her into GOP leadership but she's still on her way to be a one and done senator. They lose her and they're down to a couple senators who are not white men especially if McSally, Loeffler and Collins also lose and Murkowski tells them to f-off.

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  On 6/7/2020 at 12:08 AM, tantric superman said:

MJ and Royce both looked good in the debate just now I thought.

Bless Beto's heart, but you can't win in Texas unless you are moderately friendly to guns, and both of these candidates was clearly steering moderate.

 

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Being against guns is a loser issue in Texas. The simple answer to a question is that guns are allowed in the Constitution. Once you're in office, you can expand on that statement to define what you mean as "guns" but going off on long diatribes about taking guns away from people is a waste of breath in Texas.

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  On 6/7/2020 at 12:08 AM, tantric superman said:

MJ and Royce both looked good in the debate just now I thought.

Bless Beto's heart, but you can't win in Texas unless you are moderately friendly to guns, and both of these candidates was clearly steering moderate.

 

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Beto ran pretty moderate on guns.. He changed his tune after the EP Walmart shooting.

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  On 6/7/2020 at 7:29 PM, Message Board User said:

 

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Not really a good race for more progressive candidates in swing states considering the map.  That written, Schumer is a hack and really sucks at his job.  Doesn't even review getting outflanked in Mass.  The progressive movement has made a lot of headwinds in pushing the dialogue and policies more left of the existing center but it's not necessarily a winning platform in purple states unless a fantastic candidate.  

Hickenlooper has an ethics commission snafu that seems like a clusterfuck but nothing I would think would cost him the nomination nor the election.  Seems like a process nightmare.

 

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I haven't been paying close attention to the Kentucky Senate race, but it seems to be a damn shame that Amy McGrath has been the anointed one to got up against Cocaine Mitch. Everything I've seen from her has been completely unimpressive. 

There seems to be a hard push for Charles Booker lately. He's a progressive and has gotten a lot of attention since the BLM protests. Wish he was given a serious look earlier. 

 

 

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  On 6/9/2020 at 3:16 PM, Hank Kingsley said:

I haven't been paying close attention to the Kentucky Senate race, but it seems to be a damn shame that Amy McGrath has been the anointed one to got up against Cocaine Mitch. Everything I've seen from her has been completely unimpressive. 

There seems to be a hard push for Charles Booker lately. He's a progressive and has gotten a lot of attention since the BLM protests. Wish he was given a serious look earlier. 

 

 

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How influential is Bernie in Kentucky?  How was he doing in the state before he retired from the race?  Can't imagine AOC holds much weight but would wonder if Bernie's endorsements means much.  McGrath has a huge money edge I know and I agree she's uninspiring but wonder if this is more about Bernie going against the DSCC more than a true race.

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  On 6/9/2020 at 11:59 PM, Patrick Bateman said:

How influential is Bernie in Kentucky?  How was he doing in the state before he retired from the race?  Can't imagine AOC holds much weight but would wonder if Bernie's endorsements means much.  McGrath has a huge money edge I know and I agree she's uninspiring but wonder if this is more about Bernie going against the DSCC more than a true race.

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Booker has made a name for himself recently, he also is running on M4A and a Green New Deal. Bernie's endorsement makes sense, but I'd be surprised if he has much influence in the state.

I think people are realizing McGrath pretty much sucks (watch her answer above in post #1419 about why she's been absent at Kentucky BLM protests, smh), but I'd guess she still has the best chance to beat McConnell because she is so moderate and been propped up by prominent Democrats. 

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Stumbled across this. I have no idea how legit it is.

 

https://www.termlimits.com/mcgrath/

 

Frankfort, KY – According to a new poll conducted by RMG Group, former Marine Amy McGrath will defeat Mitch McConnell decisively in November; but only if she begins focusing on one key issue: congressional term limits. If McGrath does not stress term limits, the race remains a tossup.

The poll, which was conducted from May 21-24, found that McGrath currently leads McConnell 41% to 40%, which is well within the margin of error. But after voters are told that it is McGrath, not McConnell, who agrees with President Trump on term limiting Congress, she jumps out to a 15-point lead.

When voters are informed that McGrath supports term limits and McConnell opposes it, McGrath’s support among Republicans nearly doubles from 8% to 17%. Among independents, her share rises from 33% to 43%. 

Despite these promising numbers, McGrath has one big problem: the vast majority of Kentuckians are not aware that she supports term limits. While 37% of voters knew that McGrath is pro-term limits and has signed the U.S. Term Limits pledge, 63% either were not aware or incorrectly believed that she opposes term limits. 74% of independent voters are unaware that McGrath supports term limits. 

If McGrath wants to win in November, she will need to do a better job informing voters of her position and the contrast with McConnell’s anti-term limit views

The survey of 500 registered voters in Kentucky was conducted online by RMG Research, Inc. from May 21-24, 2020 using a representative sample to reflect the state’s population of registered voters. It has a margin of error of +/- 4.5 percentage points. RMG Research is owned and operated by Scott Rasmussen.

View the full poll results here.

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https://www.thedailybeast.com/gop-senators-disappear-trump-from-2020-ads?ref=home

 

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Four months ago, Sen. Thom Tillis put out an ad defending President Donald Trump from impeachment, boasting about the White House’s trade deals, and triumphantly noting that the president would be on the ballot in November.

This past week, references to the president were entirely absent from the vulnerable North Carolina Republican’s latest campaign spot. In fact, the ad centered on his state’s economic pain at the precise moment that Trump’s re-election campaign was trying to sell a nascent economic recovery that it dubbed the “Great American Comeback.

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Tillis’ change in tone underscores a much larger trend that’s taking place among the Senate’s most vulnerable Republican members. While many are happy to tout Trump in email and social media fundraising appeals, the president has all but disappeared from the ads they’re airing in their home states. 

The Daily Beast reviewed 15 publicly available ad spots created since March by Republican Senate campaigns in the competitive states of North Carolina, Maine, Colorado, Arizona, and Montana. Fourteen of them made no mention of Trump. The only one that did, an ad from Tillis’ campaign in late April, simply mentioned that he’d been appointed to a White House coronavirus task force. By contrast, Democrats in a number of competitive Senate contests have used their television ad time to attempt to tie Republican incumbents to the president.

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In Colorado, Sen. Cory Gardner unveiled his first TV ad of the cycle just last month highlighting his work securing coronavirus aid for his state. The 30-second spot didn’t mention Trump. But it did plug Gardner’s collaboration with Jared Polis, Colorado’s Democratic governor.

Sen. Susan Collins of Maine has likewise sought to burnish her bipartisan credentials. One recent TV ad from her campaign featured shots of Collins alongside Democratic colleagues including Sen. Tim Kaine of Virginia and Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia. But Trump was nowhere to be found in that spot, or any other her campaign has aired over the last couple months.

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  On 6/12/2020 at 5:42 PM, Hank Kingsley said:

This is the most interesting primary race right now. 

Here’s McGrath with an extremely condescending cheap shot, and she’s rightfully getting dragged for it. She is literally campaigning as a Trump apologist 

 

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She's a gaffe machine..... Not even a good candidate but probably has a more digestible platform for a red state like Kentucky.

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  On 6/12/2020 at 5:42 PM, Hank Kingsley said:

This is the most interesting primary race right now. 

Here’s McGrath with an extremely condescending cheap shot, and she’s rightfully getting dragged for it. She is literally campaigning as a Trump apologist 

 

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Came to this thread as soon as I saw this and glad you got here first. She’s gotta go. This is trash.

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https://www.thedailybeast.com/thom-tillis-went-full-trump-now-hes-dcs-most-vulnerable-republican?via=newsletter&source=BI-end-week-digest

 

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Republican Senator Thom Tillis is a loud voice in committee hearings, pushing the Obamagate conspiracy and reading aloud the dictionary definitions of “witch hunt” and “hoax.” 

But that’s not what he talks about at home in North Carolina, running for re-election. His first television ad has him walking through a trailer park recalling his humble roots (the spot is titled “Humble”) and pledging to be a fighter for workers, protecting their jobs as the economy recovers.

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His family moved around a lot, he was one of six children, and he worked his way through college. Good for him. But he’s been in Washington for six years, and whoever put the ad together probably didn’t notice Tillis is wearing a $110 Tommy Bahama polo shirt. 

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  On 6/14/2020 at 3:20 AM, Hank Kingsley said:

This is an eye opener.  

We are getting to the point where Dems winning the Senate is a real possibility. LFG. 

 

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The GOP keeps trying to deny it, but I think Montana senate is really in play.

 

in 2016, trump and bullock were both on the ballot in Montana. Trump won Montana by 20+ and Bullock won the Montana governor race by 4 or 5 points. 
 

Lots of ticket splitting goes on in that state.

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  On 6/14/2020 at 2:54 PM, Message Board User said:

 

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The people of Maine would be crazy to keep her this cycle.  Mitch McConnell has had the senate since 2014 and the GOP has accomplished nothing during his tenure. 
 

the dems might very well need her seat to take control and I hope the people of Maine realize that.

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  On 6/14/2020 at 2:56 PM, Voldemort86 said:

The people of Maine would be crazy to keep her this cycle.  Mitch McConnell has had the senate since 2014 and the GOP has accomplished nothing during his tenure. 
 

the dems might very well need her seat to take control and I hope the people of Maine realize that.

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Moscow Mitch has benefited greatly the past 6 years !

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  On 6/14/2020 at 3:14 PM, tx 3 putt said:

Moscow Mitch has benefited greatly the past 6 years !

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Everything they’ve accomplished have been party specific goals. They haven’t done anything for the American population at large.

they’ve confirmed judges and created a dead zone for bills passed in the house so large that it probably could fill an entire room by now.

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  On 6/9/2020 at 11:59 PM, Patrick Bateman said:

How influential is Bernie in Kentucky?  How was he doing in the state before he retired from the race?  Can't imagine AOC holds much weight but would wonder if Bernie's endorsements means much.  McGrath has a huge money edge I know and I agree she's uninspiring but wonder if this is more about Bernie going against the DSCC more than a true race.

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1. I think liberal economic policy has a better chance of doing well in KY than liberal social policies.  That's been Bernie's 50 state plan all along, and I think it has some merit. 

2. Endorsements are way more important for donations than they are for directly influencing voters.  When Bernie and AOC endorse a candidate, they tweet/post/email the endorsement to all of their supporters on their list.  Many of those supporters then follow the link, and contribute, some of them to the max amount.  The candidate then watches their fundraising autocruise for about a week, raising more than they could have from 100 hours of calling potential donors.  I used to think endorsements were no big deal; I was wrong. 

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