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2020 Senate Elections

Patrick Bateman

By Patrick Bateman
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Ghost of LL

Ghost of LL 15492

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24 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

I always get a kick out of "top ten seat flip" lists or similar. You start filling it out with total lottery tickets after the first half dozen seats or so. It's like the back end of the AP top 25. No, Texas wasn't good last year, but someone's gotta be #25. There just aren't that many competitive senate races in a given cycle.

Thillis is in pretty deep shit, I've been convinced of that for a while. I think NC delivers big for Democrats this year. GOP cannot win that state with huge black turnout when their margin among educated whites has evaporated. Just doesn't add up.

I don't think Ds get over the hump in IA. Really need Maine, but deespite okay polling, you could say I'm "deeply concerned" Collins-style about Maine. Incumbents often find ways to win close races like that.

I'm starting to think Ds only net two seats and the GOP keeps the Senate, which is a fucking disaster. ME, IA, and MT are all close enough that you'd think it's hard for the GOP to split all three, but they're all demographically lilly white with GOP incumbents.

I have thought Collins was dead for a long time, even before Gideon was the nominee.  You can't just destroy your entire political brand as she did with Kavanaugh and impeachment and go on to win reelection.

And I really think you're sleeping on Bullock.

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BehoId, The Underminer!

BehoId, The Underminer! 11668

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29 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

I think you meant to say sweep?
 

i still think it’s unlikely the GOP sweeps all 3 when the democrats have at worst a 50/50 shot in Maine and 40/60 shots in Iowa / Montana. Those are the worst I’d put the odds at, but the odds can still get better.

Aside: the problem with percents on stuff like this is that they move together.  it's not independent like coin tosses.  Seeing them as percentages leads to people going "yeah, a 50/50 and two 40/60s? Total long shot they'd all go the same direction."

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JimmyJames

JimmyJames 12271

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Trump and her vote for kavanaugh means Collins is done.  Despite her crappy way too long speech justifying it. 
 

Montana and Iowa will be close. NC, Arizona and Colorado won’t be. 
 

Im predicting 51-49 dems with a higher dem total possible depending on how many people trump kills in the next couple months. 

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gmr548

gmr548 16517

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I have thought Collins was dead for a long time, even before Gideon was the nominee.  You can't just destroy your entire political brand as she did with Kavanaugh and impeachment and go on to win reelection.
And I really think you're sleeping on Bullock.
Ted Cruz sez hi on your first point.

I'm don't think I'm discounting Bullock, the fact that that race is tight is a huge show of strength for him right there. I'll concede that I haven't seen as much data on MT as I have the other two, I'm mainly banking on an incumbent R holding his seat when the Republican President is on the ballot and going to win the state by double digits. But MT is very small and candidates matter more in that environment.

I'd love to see some data that proves me wrong, because I do think it's a better bet than IA, and an easier long term hold given Bullock's standing in the state.
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gmr548

gmr548 16517

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Aside: the problem with percents on stuff like this is that they move together.  it's not independent like coin tosses.  Seeing them as percentages leads to people going "yeah, a 50/50 and two 40/60s? Total long shot they'd all go the same direction."
That's what I meant. These three states are likely to move somewhat in lock step based on their demographics.
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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 18981

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On 8/7/2020 at 10:48 AM, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

Aside: the problem with percents on stuff like this is that they move together.  it's not independent like coin tosses.  Seeing them as percentages leads to people going "yeah, a 50/50 and two 40/60s? Total long shot they'd all go the same direction."

Yep. Was just going to post that. I don’t think it’d be a surprise to see them all go the the same way, but I will instead say they all go the direction of the presidential race. So, 2-1 GOP, Dems win the senate. Unless Trump free falls and loses IA and squeaks our Mt- then 3-0 Dems. 

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Bullneck

Bullneck 18987

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On 8/7/2020 at 1:22 PM, JimmyJames said:

Trump and her vote for kavanaugh means Collins is done.  Despite her crappy way too long speech justifying it. 
 

Montana and Iowa will be close. NC, Arizona and Colorado won’t be. 
 

Im predicting 51-49 dems with a higher dem total possible depending on how many people trump kills in the next couple months. 

If that were the case Trump gets impeached AND convicted.

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Biff Tannen

Biff Tannen 45499

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On 8/7/2020 at 3:25 PM, gmr548 said:

Ted Cruz sez hi on your first point.

I'm don't think I'm discounting Bullock, the fact that that race is tight is a huge show of strength for him right there. I'll concede that I haven't seen as much data on MT as I have the other two, I'm mainly banking on an incumbent R holding his seat when the Republican President is on the ballot and going to win the state by double digits. But MT is very small and candidates matter more in that environment.

I'd love to see some data that proves me wrong, because I do think it's a better bet than IA, and an easier long term hold given Bullock's standing in the state.

I think Bullock is a lock. He’s well liked in Montana and knows what they want. 

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Hank Scorpio

Hank Scorpio 17723

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4 hours ago, StassneyHorn said:

Good news for Progressives on the board that exist outside of Biden and Kamala threads. Markey up on Kennedy 50-32, up 51-39 with “learners.”

https://polsci.umass.edu/sites/default/files/SenatePrimaryAug2020Toplines8-12.pdf

That’s amazing. Usually you need a bullet or a plane or a tree or generations of inbreeding to defeat a Kennedy. 

Edited by Hank Scorpio
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Ghost of LL

Ghost of LL 15492

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11 hours ago, 406W30th said:

I swear to god if the Dems take over the Senate and don't elect Liz Warren as majority leader I'm going to fucking march to DC with a pitchfork.

You really shouldn't want this.

Majority leader is an easy enough job if your goal is not to do anything, as Mitch McConnell demonstrates.  But it is really hard if you want to get things passed.  

For passing shit, the real power still lies with the committee chairmen.

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BehoId, The Underminer!

BehoId, The Underminer! 11668

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1 hour ago, Ghost of LL said:

You really shouldn't want this.

wrong.  you i and everyone else on this board want this.

Warren-001.JPG

longhorn majority leaders > non longhorn majority leaders.

1 hour ago, Ghost of LL said:

But it is really hard if you want to get things passed.  

For passing shit, the real power still lies with the committee chairmen.

no one believes that being the majority leader isn't a position of real power.

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Ghost of LL

Ghost of LL 15492

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4 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

no one believes that being the majority leader isn't a position of real power.

I didn't say it wasn't a position of real power.  I said that it is not the best position in the Senate if you want to enact structural change.

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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

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Cook political has officially moved South Carolina from likely to lean republican.

its a big deal because “lean republican” means a margin of 1-5 points. This race is actually starting to narrow people. I’d love to see that little bitch voted out, not likely but maybe we can at least scare him.

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13414

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2 hours ago, Voldemort86 said:

Cook political has officially moved South Carolina from likely to lean republican.

its a big deal because “lean republican” means a margin of 1-5 points. This race is actually starting to narrow people. I’d love to see that little bitch voted out, not likely but maybe we can at least scare him.

Tight Senate races will also create tough calls for the GOP candidates: do you double down on Trump and his policies in a hope of GOTV, or do you distance yourself as much as possible which potentially angers the orange God. They'll be reluctant to do nothing if the polls keep shifting more blue. Polls like this will also require more fundraising calls to top GOP donors who won't be happy that their previous donations didn't help.

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Bevo14

Bevo14 8274

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2 hours ago, Voldemort86 said:

Cook political has officially moved South Carolina from likely to lean republican.

its a big deal because “lean republican” means a margin of 1-5 points. This race is actually starting to narrow people. I’d love to see that little bitch voted out, not likely but maybe we can at least scare him.

Nice. I kicked a few bucks at this race a few weeks ago.

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SydneyCarton

SydneyCarton 47884

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1 hour ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Tight Senate races will also create tough calls for the GOP candidates: do you double down on Trump and his policies in a hope of GOTV, or do you distance yourself as much as possible which potentially angers the orange God. They'll be reluctant to do nothing if the polls keep shifting more blue. Polls like this will also require more fundraising calls to top GOP donors who won't be happy that their previous donations didn't help.

I mean, isn't there a world where they move away from Trump? Trump will violate them later if both parties in this scenario win, but he's not going to scream "Go vote Democrat because __________ didn't suck enough of my cock." The GOP candidate has to win first, and then Trump can take his pound of flesh out of him after November. 

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GopherRock

GopherRock 1765

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On 8/17/2020 at 12:37 PM, Voldemort86 said:

Cook political has officially moved South Carolina from likely to lean republican.

its a big deal because “lean republican” means a margin of 1-5 points. This race is actually starting to narrow people. I’d love to see that little bitch voted out, not likely but maybe we can at least scare him.

Put South Carolina up in the "live underdog" tier with Iowa, Montana, Georgia, Bama, and 

Favorite for Dem pickup: NC, AZ, ME, CO
Favorite for Dem loss: Bama (although I'd love to be totally wrong)
Live underdogs for a flip: IA, MT,  SC, AK, maybe KS? 
Lottery tickets: KY, GA x 2, TX, and the rest

McGrath is turning out to be an awful candidate against Moscow Mitch. The favorites coming in gets the chamber to 50/50. Somehow I think all the underdogs all go the same direction.

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gmr548

gmr548 16517

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Posted
Put South Carolina up in the "live underdog" tier with Iowa, Montana, Georgia, Bama, and 

Favorite for Dem pickup: NC, AZ, ME, CO
Favorite for Dem loss: Bama (although I'd love to be totally wrong)
Live underdogs for a flip: IA, MT,  SC, AK, maybe KS? 
Lottery tickets: KY, GA x 2, TX, and the rest

McGrath is turning out to be an awful candidate against Moscow Mitch. The favorites coming in gets the chamber to 50/50. Somehow I think all the underdogs all go the same direction.
This is pretty fair. I might create a true tossup category for ME but that's about it.
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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13414

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2 hours ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

"no notes at the table" sounds p p republican to me.  i don't want information. i want repeated one liners.

It can be tough if not impossible to fact check someone's lies without backup info available to you. McConnell can basically make up or twist information especially in regards to economic benefit that he's brought to KY. And when you're playing the role of fact checker/accountability, its impossible to remember any potential data element the other person might raise.

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Ghost of LL

Ghost of LL 15492

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3 hours ago, Patrick Bateman said:

Nice to see but a D internal so probably a 5 point drift there at least.  I think it can be competitive and with Donny and Kemp seemingly looking for icebergs to hit, maybe a surprise although I wouldn't count on it.  Georgia gonna Georgia.

 

Georgia really is a turnout election.  If the Dems can turnout their constituency, they can win.  The problem is that the voter suppression there is as bad as anywhere in the country.

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Biff Tannen

Biff Tannen 45499

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1 hour ago, Ghost of LL said:

Georgia really is a turnout election.  If the Dems can turnout their constituency, they can win.  The problem is that the voter suppression there is as bad as anywhere in the country.

Shit, I'd argue worse, considering Kemp literally stole the 2018 election from Abrams and no one gave a fuck.

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JimmyJames

JimmyJames 12271

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23 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

Shit, I'd argue worse, considering Kemp literally stole the 2018 election from Abrams and no one gave a fuck.

Georgia is one of the most racist states in the nation. You combine that with one of the most successful black populations in the nation in greater Atlanta, and you get your massive attempts at voter suppression by the racist whites. It’s actually somewhat of a unique state in that regard.

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Biff Tannen

Biff Tannen 45499

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6 minutes ago, JimmyJames said:

Georgia is one of the most racist states in the nation. You combine that with one of the most successful black populations in the nation in greater Atlanta, and you get your massive attempts at voter suppression by the racist whites. It’s actually somewhat of a unique state in that regard.

I remember going to see Stone Mountain on a road trip when I was 14. Didn’t have a clue as to what it represented at the time and neither did my extremely liberal mom. We both just thought of it as a historical reminder of the civil war. Good work, Daughters of the Confederacy or whatever. 

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Hank Kingsley

Hank Kingsley 20708

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9 hours ago, StassneyHorn said:

Mitch McConnell asking for a debate with Amy McGrath, not the other way around. What’s the angle? Haven’t seen any polling that would indicate he needs to do this.

 

McGrath is not a good debater (or politician for that matter) and out of her league against Mitch. And he knows it. 

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Hank Scorpio

Hank Scorpio 17723

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1 hour ago, Biff Tannen said:

I remember going to see Stone Mountain on a road trip when I was 14. Didn’t have a clue as to what it represented at the time and neither did my extremely liberal mom. We both just thought of it as a historical reminder of the civil war. Good work, Daughters of the Confederacy or whatever. 

Sounds like you and your mom were the real Daughters of the Confederacy. 

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JimmyJames

JimmyJames 12271

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2 hours ago, Biff Tannen said:

I remember going to see Stone Mountain on a road trip when I was 14. Didn’t have a clue as to what it represented at the time and neither did my extremely liberal mom. We both just thought of it as a historical reminder of the civil war. Good work, Daughters of the Confederacy or whatever. 

Staaates Riiiights! Waaaar of Northern Agressiooons!

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Mrs Whiggins

Mrs Whiggins 13049

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On 8/17/2020 at 3:23 PM, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Tight Senate races will also create tough calls for the GOP candidates: do you double down on Trump and his policies in a hope of GOTV, or do you distance yourself as much as possible which potentially angers the orange God. They'll be reluctant to do nothing if the polls keep shifting more blue. Polls like this will also require more fundraising calls to top GOP donors who won't be happy that their previous donations didn't help.

Loeffler is up by 9 points apparently (Survey USA) and she has a LOT of money apparently. Guess I know where that came from. The rather interesting item is how she and Doug Collins are picking on....Mitt Romney because neither one of them wants to bag on Trump. They had a little Twitter war over who supported the "Never Trumper" the most. It's a strategy of sorts I suppose, but your post reminded me of it. Georgia has a lot of people running in that special election, but honestly  it's really between those two Republicans, correct?

 

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Ghost of LL

Ghost of LL 15492

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28 minutes ago, Mrs Whiggins said:

Loeffler is up by 9 points apparently (Survey USA) and she has a LOT of money apparently. Guess I know where that came from. The rather interesting item is how she and Doug Collins are picking on....Mitt Romney because neither one of them wants to bag on Trump. They had a little Twitter war over who supported the "Never Trumper" the most. It's a strategy of sorts I suppose, but your post reminded me of it. Georgia has a lot of people running in that special election, but honestly  it's really between those two Republicans, correct?

 

That's excellent, because she's not going to win a majority.  I'd much rather face her in a runoff.

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