2020 Senate Elections

[Ag with kids 581]

7 hours ago, BradInATX said:

 

I already told you, I don't believe that either party is fiscally conservative. Maybe on the local and (sometimes) state levels. And pre-Trump, my local voting was all over the board. I almost always vote fiscally conservative in Austin politics. But on the national level, neither party is. So you pick the lesser of two evils, which is very, very clearly the democrats. I mean, that's not a difficult proposition at all. Just look at what has actually happened in the real world, not politicians telling you what you want to hear. Democratic administrations have been far more fiscal conservative than Republican ones. It's not even a debate, much like the color of the sky is not a debate.

I guess you can choose to believe campaign rhetoric over 40+ years or proven results, if that's how you approach things. You do you.

If you're using that chart above as your proof, then that's poor reasoning and poor statistics.

[BradInATX 9208]

If you're using that chart above as your proof, then that's poor reasoning and poor statistics.

Explain.

[Bozo_Casanova 26294]

16 minutes ago, Ag with kids said:

Oak Cliff and South Oak Cliff are right next to each other and are about as far opposite in "community of interest" as you can find.

 

Hi, person from Oak Cliff here (the part that doesn't appreciate, either.). That's like saying Brooklyn isn't a community of interest. Oak Cliff is extremely diverse but absolutely has a collective identity and many common interests. I understand your point, but Oak Cliff is maybe the worst example possible. 

Edited September 11, 2020 by Bozo_Casanova

[Ag with kids 581]

5 hours ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Yes, but you see @Ag with kids believes that since statewide races are won by Republicans, that means Hyde Park's very real local interests within the remit of congress including higher ed policy, federal grants for local infrastructure and transit, federal flood plain management and the deductability of school district property taxes don't matter, because of some mumbled words about conservative policy.

Hail Stephenville!

No.  No.  No.

But, keep distorting my position.  It's the weekend so I'll be drinking more...

And explain, in detail, how you achieve those results above with your plan.

[Huckleberry 32704]

Well you're right about one thing, we need a shitload more Representatives. 

[Bozo_Casanova 26294]

2 minutes ago, Ag with kids said:

No.  No.  No.

But, keep distorting my position.  It's the weekend so I'll be drinking more...

And explain, in detail, how you achieve those results above with your plan.

My plan? You mean, a return to compact competitive districts that don't have a preordained partisan result? Again, you don't seem to get that your position precludes anything other than the consolidation of partisan power.  My evidence is the world around you. 

[Ag with kids 581]

9 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Hi, person from Oak Cliff here (the part that doesn't appreciate, either.). That's like saying Brooklyn isn't a community of interest. Oak Cliff is extremely diverse but absolutely has a collective identity and many common interests. I understand your point, but Oak Cliff is maybe the worst example possible. 

I assume you don't live in the part of Oak Cliff where your kids go to Dallas Carter, right?  But, I'm sure that area has the same community interests as your area does...

But, again I was just bringing up Dallas County as a small example.  Duncanville and Las Colinas.  Both cities in Dallas County.  I guess their communities of interest are almost identical.  Even though they vote for candidates from totally different parties.

But, Flower Mound in Tarrant and Ranger in Eastland County must have no communities of interest, even though they both vote for  candidates of the same party...

 

[Ag with kids 581]

8 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

Well you're right about one thing, we need a shitload more Representatives. 

I do NOT disagree with that.  The population has grown enormously but the Representation hasn't.  Which makes this utopian "communities of interest" goal of bozo's extremely hard to achieve.

Again.  I don't disagree with the overall goal.  But, with the tools we have NOW I have my view of the best way to get somewhat close.

[Ag with kids 581]

9 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

My plan? You mean, a return to compact competitive districts that don't have a preordained partisan result? Again, you don't seem to get that your position precludes anything other than the consolidation of partisan power.  My evidence is the world around you. 

Describe how do you achieve "compact competitive districts" in Texas with the number of Representatives we have now?  Don't just drop platitudes.

You act like I don't know your political persuasion after discussing things with you over 20 years (goddamn it's really been that long).

[hayden_horn 11360]

22 hours ago, Ag with kids said:

 

I didn’t want to do this, but I’ve had few beers so I’ll go against my best judgement and get into the stink that is the politics board here.

 

avatar definitely does not match the sentiment expressed here. 

[Bozo_Casanova 26294]

 

16 minutes ago, Ag with kids said:

I assume you don't live in the part of Oak Cliff where your kids go to Dallas Carter, right?  But, I'm sure that area has the same community interests as your area does...

Kimball, West Oak Cliff and just a notch lower on the economic scale than Carter. That's where we lived when I was born (I live in Austin and mostly grew up in East Dallas). My Dad lived in Oak Cliff until fairly recently. My Grandfather lives there still, in the house he bought after the war, in a dirt road subdivision.

16 minutes ago, Ag with kids said:

But, again I was just bringing up Dallas County as a small example.  Duncanville and Las Colinas.  Both cities in Dallas County.  I guess their communities of interest are almost identical.  Even though they vote for candidates from totally different parties.

Yes. That's the point. They are deprived of a competitive race. 

16 minutes ago, Ag with kids said:

 

But, Flower Mound in Tarrant and Ranger in Eastland County must have no communities of interest, even though they both vote for  candidates of the same party...

That's the point. They don't have much in common other than some bullshit tribal patch. 

Edited September 11, 2020 by Bozo_Casanova

[Bozo_Casanova 26294]

7 minutes ago, Ag with kids said:

Describe how do you achieve "compact competitive districts" in Texas with the number of Representatives we have now?  Don't just drop platitudes.

You act like I don't know your political persuasion after discussing things with you over 20 years (goddamn it's really been that long).

It's a hell of a lot easier than what we have now, which literally required AI to design. My persuasion is hostility to bullshit. 

[Ag with kids 581]

15 minutes ago, hayden_horn said:

avatar definitely does not match the sentiment expressed here. 

Meh..I picked it because I found it amusing.

I know you were on HF, so if you'll remember, my avatar over there was the Aggie Yell Leader chasing the SMU male cheerleader with a saber.  That dude was an idiot, but I also found it amusing.

[hayden_horn 11360]

5 minutes ago, Ag with kids said:

Meh..I picked it because I found it amusing.

I know you were on HF, so if you'll remember, my avatar over there was the Aggie Yell Leader chasing the SMU male cheerleader with a saber.  That dude was an idiot, but I also found it amusing.

yeah, it really kind of resonated when you made the statement of "we've been having these conversations for 20 years now"

jesus wept.

[Ag with kids 581]

18 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

It's a hell of a lot easier than what we have now, which literally required AI to design. My persuasion is hostility to bullshit. 

So...platitudes about how to achieve your goal.

At least I put out my view on the issue with ACTUAL ways to do it.

As to the other...I call bullshit. 😜

[Ag with kids 581]

Just now, hayden_horn said:

yeah, it really kind of resonated when you made the statement of "we've been having these conversations for 20 years now"

jesus wept.

Yeah...I think you've been in on them for almost that whole time, too.

When did you fuckers get so old?

[bolverk 29413]

4 hours ago, Ag with kids said:

Communities of interest...Define that fully.

Start with Dallas County.  There's about 50 distinct communities of interest just in that county alone.  Oak Cliff and South Oak Cliff are right next to each other and are about as far opposite in "community of interest" as you can find.

I understand the concept.  I actually support the concept (regardless of what @Bozo_Casanova keeps saying about me).  But, we disagree on how to achieve it.  As I stated above, for lack of a better proxy, dividing it by parties is what I use...

For your example. look at how the parties voted for District 10 and compare it to the statewide election results.  One big thing they have in common is that they vote majority Republican (conservative) - the proxy.

https://www.270towin.com/2018-house-election/states/texas

I DO think the way that Texas draws districts is definitely not great.  But, a LARGE part of that is limited by the number of Representatives and another part is limited by law (X number of majority minority districts).

Explain how you would get all the 20K "communities of interest" in Texas represented.  Note...I am not opposed to having more Representatives.

I'd start by looking at how people live, where people work, and, you know, figuring out how various regions are tied together.

First, let's look at the macro scale. Here are the defined Council of Government regions in Texas which is the basis for lots of planning:

Here's how various region's interact with one another through commuting patterns:

Here are the state's various metropolitan and micropolitan areas:

Let's look at the population density of Texas and see how people are clustered together:

So, instead of looking at a jumbled hodgepodge of nonsensical geographies like we currently have:

We now have a basis and common framework for how this damn state actually functions, politically, economically, and socially.

Texas currently has 36 districts. I'd first use what I know of the macro geographic patterns, taking into account regional connections, and start by maybe dividing the state's population up into four quadrants and work my way down from there, so that at least we don't have ridiculous districts that cross regions that pit "communities of interest" against one another within a single district but different parts of the state. 

Edited September 12, 2020 by bolverk

[Bozo_Casanova 26294]

57 minutes ago, Ag with kids said:

So...platitudes about how to achieve your goal.

At least I put out my view on the issue with ACTUAL ways to do it.

As to the other...I call bullshit. 😜

Local man who doesn’t know doesn’t know.

 

Bulverk covered it. None of this is hard. You create a non-partisan districting commission, they put it together. Voila. And frankly I don’t care a goddamn bit what the outcome is or they methodology as long as party is prohibited from consideration.

I mean shit, there’s a district in NYC that isn’t even contiguous and straddles a borough for the sole purpose of maximizing Democrat representation. That’s the Inevitable outcome of what you’re defending. Self perpetuating partisan hegemony. 

 

Edited September 11, 2020 by Bozo_Casanova

[Fudge Nuggets 19151]

1 hour ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Kimball, West Oak Cliff

Say word, son.

[Bozo_Casanova 26294]

27 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

Say word, son.

No one can do it better

[bolverk 29413]

I ain't gonna watch the damn thing, but it looks like Collins didn't do too well. If you're really interested, here's the whole thing:

https://www.c-span.org/video/?475617-1/maine-us-senate-debate&live

[Bateshorn 9907]

Do you see that intense blue blot with the  snaky top and the straight bottom at a 70 degree angle?  That’s Travis County.  That’s honestly a community of interest in the sense that all of those people live together along the Colorado, have an economy based largely on Austin, and are environmentally Affected by the Colorado river and the Edwards Aquifer.  By voting patterns you’d think they elect a Democratic Congressman. 
 

instead the elect 4 different congressman: one responsive to the hill country, one to the Dallas exurbs, one to San Antonio, and one to the Houston Suburbs.  Austin doesn’t actually have a congressman.  This is not Oak Cliff and South Oak Cliff being slightly different.  This would be if Oak Cliff and Galveston were in the same district. 
https://www.austinchronicle.com/binary/e569/pols_set5.jpg

 

Your thought pattern falls apart not in the sense that your suburb and the suburb next to you have differences.  It’s that the maps are drawn in such a way that because the GOP has power, the Democrats are cracked and packed into districts in such a way they have literally no voice in government, at all.  Their votes are meaningless, because even if they all turn out at vote, they can’t win.

The only thing different this year is Donald  Trump has upset so many suburban women is those maps now have a bunch of Democrat voters who were unthinkable 10 years ago.

Edited September 12, 2020 by Bateshorn

[JimmyJames 12271]

Well I’m not from Oak Cliff but here’s what I do know.

Cornyn is vulnerable because nobody cares about him. He’s not hated from the dems and not loved by the criminal enterprise Republican Party. I guess he’s too little of  criminal.

He’s an unknown and given the fact that Trump is about to lose Texas, he’s a down ballot vulnerable. 

Why is trump about to lose Texas? Well for on thing, he has a 50 percent favorability rate in Texas among Texas Republicans.

Let me repeat that. 50 PERCENT FAVORABILITY rate among Texas republicans. That is abysmal. He’s 90 percent nationwide among the dumbass Republican Party.

It is going to be very close in Texas.

Edited September 12, 2020 by JimmyJames

[Ag with kids 581]

4 hours ago, bolverk said:

I'd start by looking at how people live, where people work, and, you know, figuring out how various regions are tied together.

First, let's look at the macro scale. Here are the defined Council of Government regions in Texas which is the basis for lots of planning:

Here's how various region's interact with one another through commuting patterns:

Here are the state's various metropolitan and micropolitan areas:

Let's look at the population density of Texas and see how people are clustered together:

So, instead of looking at a jumbled hodgepodge of nonsensical geographies like we currently have:

We now have a basis and common framework for how this damn state actually functions, politically, economically, and socially.

Texas currently has 36 districts. I'd first use what I know of the macro geographic patterns, taking into account regional connections, and start by maybe dividing the state's population up into four quadrants and work my way down from there, so that at least we don't have ridiculous districts that cross regions that pit "communities of interest" against one another within a single district but different parts of the state. 

It's too late now, but, I'll try to get my response to this tomorrow if I have time.  I've got a shit ton of stuff to do and then I may have a community of interest with a fruity rum drink and the beach...

[bolverk 29413]

16 minutes ago, Ag with kids said:

It's too late now, but, I'll try to get my response to this tomorrow if I have time.  I've got a shit ton of stuff to do and then I may have a community of interest with a fruity rum drink and the beach...

I'll look forward to what you've got to say. The macro scale stuff I pointed out is the easier part in terms of regional interests, but the micro/local within a regional framework is definitely more difficult. At the same time, I do think taking a regional first approach is likely the best option for keeping things a little more compact. 

Get some rest.

[tx 3 putt 76417]

4 hours ago, bolverk said:

I ain't gonna watch the damn thing, but it looks like Collins didn't do too well. If you're really interested, here's the whole thing:

https://www.c-span.org/video/?475617-1/maine-us-senate-debate&live

 

collins needs to retire 

[Voldemort86 2259]

Collins got dominated.

[Hugo Stiglitz 23362]

Lol

[Hugo Stiglitz 23362]

“Request denied!”  

[Bookman 4611]

12 hours ago, Ag with kids said:

So, if they have "character, intelligence, critical thinking skills, and ability to effectively govern" and tell you that every policy they will vote for for is the opposite of what you support, you would vote for them?  Basically, you would get someone that would effectively implement policies you oppose, but do it nic

How do you know what policies you support?

[Voldemort86 2259]

I can’t wait for the Kelly vs. mcsally Debate.

i just hope they bring up legal marijuana in the Hegar vs. cornyn debate so everyone can see cornyn is in the 33% of Americans who want to keep it illegal.

[Ag with kids 581]

5 hours ago, Bookman said:

How do you know what policies you support?

My brain works?

[Bookman 4611]

At this point you're obviously either trolling or stupid.

[Ag with kids 581]

58 minutes ago, Bookman said:

At this point you're obviously either trolling or stupid.

Because I know the policies I support, I'm either trolling or stupid?

And you don't know the policies you support but you're not trolling or stupid?

Makes perfect sense...in 2020...

[Nice Guy Eddie 13414]

12 hours ago, Voldemort86 said:

I can’t wait for the Kelly vs. mcsally Debate.

i just hope they bring up legal marijuana in the Hegar vs. cornyn debate so everyone can see cornyn is in the 33% of Americans who want to keep it illegal.

Is Cornyn going to schedule the debate on a Friday or Saturday night so no one sees it?

[Jive Turkey 12568]

 

[JimmyJames 12271]

23 minutes ago, Jive Turkey said:

 

 

Were the payments to young male hookers included on those tax returns? Did he properly send them a 1099?

[Ag with kids 581]

19 hours ago, bolverk said:

I'll look forward to what you've got to say. The macro scale stuff I pointed out is the easier part in terms of regional interests, but the micro/local within a regional framework is definitely more difficult. At the same time, I do think taking a regional first approach is likely the best option for keeping things a little more compact. 

Get some rest.

Going to have to be tomorrow...I bit off more than I could chew with the work I had lined up today and I beat the shit out of my old body.  Going to go have a few beers and listen to some island music to try to ease the pain. Just didn't want you to think I was bailing on the discussion...

[Voldemort86 2259]

2 hours ago, Jive Turkey said:

 

He should be directing that tweet to President Trump.

 

when Trump releases them, then graham will have a point and Harrison should release his.

[Bookman 4611]

13 hours ago, Ag with kids said:

Because I know the policies I support, I'm either trolling or stupid?

And you don't know the policies you support but you're not trolling or stupid?

Makes perfect sense...in 2020...

I still can't tell, but I will give you the benefit of the doubt.

[Mrs Whiggins 13049]

McGrath and McConnell heating up the discourse. She is a stretch, but Mitch sounds a little desperate. He sure has a lot of money.

 

[StassneyHorn 6540]

MJ Hegar debating John Cornyn Oct 9th and will be televised statewide in 13 media markets, as well as online. Will be held at the Bob Bullock museum. MJ wants two more, Cornyn had said before he would do more than one.

For MJ- “spineless” o/u @ 3.5 and “Bootlicker” @ 0.5 since its more of a bomb throwing comment that could be a negative to people with sensibilities.

For Cornyn- “Hollywood Hegar” @ 1.5, “Socialists/ism” @ 4.5

Everyone drinks for rioting/looting/ANTIFA

 

Edited September 15, 2020 by StassneyHorn

[Bozo_Casanova 26294]

 

[Mrs Whiggins 13049]

Jaime Harrison released his taxes and tweeted to Lindsey Graham: Now do Trump. 
 

 

[totallynotabuttpirate 5342]

Biden needs to repeatedly bring up Trump's tax returns in the debates. I mean like every 15 minutes or so......

Edited September 16, 2020 by totallynotabuttpirate

[totallynotabuttpirate 5342]

 

[tx 3 putt 76417]

lady G needs to go down 

[Bama Chick 28596]

lady G needs to go down 

He’d probably love to go down on Jaime Harrison.

[Voldemort86 2259]

https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/08/05/sen-martha-mcsally-debate-mark-kelly-oct-6-phoenix/3297101001/
 

first mcsally and Kelly debate is October 6th.

 

mcsally wants a total of 7 debates. It’s interesting how all the senators in trouble want tons of debates.

[StassneyHorn 6540]

Alaska is no longer allowing independent candidate Al Gross  to have a a N for nonpartisan next to his name on the ballot. They will instead list “Democratic nominee” by Al Gross’s name, and John Wayne Howe will have Alaska Independent Party next to his as the official party. 

https://www.adn.com/politics/2020/09/14/a-late-change-to-the-2020-general-election-ballot-sparks-outcry-from-alaska-democrats/