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2020 Senate Elections

Patrick Bateman

By Patrick Bateman
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Bozo_Casanova

Bozo_Casanova 26287

Posted
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1 hour ago, StassneyHorn said:

Cornyn and Rep. Roger Williams have been throwing out some serious BS on healthcare and or existing conditions in the Austin market tv ads. Here’s to hoping MJ and Julie Oliver can put that shit on blast.

One would hope but I haven’t seen it and they better make their moves soon or it’s over. 

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13414

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9 hours ago, StassneyHorn said:

Cornyn and Rep. Roger Williams have been throwing out some serious BS on healthcare and or existing conditions in the Austin market tv ads. Here’s to hoping MJ and Julie Oliver can put that shit on blast.

Crenshaw is doing the same in Houston. Repeat a lie enough time on TV and people will assume it’s true.  There must be some coordinated messaging going on.

to my knowledge, not only have they not protected healthcare, they’ve gone out of their way to tear it down. Crenshaw may not fall into the latter as much since he’s only been in DC in the minority party and hasn’t done anything in congress except to rename a few post offices after gop politicians.

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TwiceHorn

TwiceHorn 31290

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On 7/1/2020 at 7:46 PM, Ghost of LL said:

We need to start one.

I will tell you that a good one that is not going to a runoff is Joanna Cattanach in District 108.  She ran in 2018 against Morgan Meyer in North Dallas and lost by only 220 votes.  I think even Morgan knows he's in a lot of trouble in this one.

 

By way of disclaimer, I know Morgan and think well of him.  But he's furniture in the House.  He doesn't do anything.  So, as a Democrat, he's as inoffensive as an R can be.  But that's still pretty fucking offensive--he's got to go.

Figured I could find something on this race and remembered you had personal knowledge, so I didn't have to @ you after all.

 

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Ghost of LL

Ghost of LL 15492

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33 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

 

So Quinnipiac has been very favorable for the Ds in this cycle.  But I don't totally discount this.  There have been warning signs in Georgia for some time.

The really good news is the special.  Lieberman's support seems to have collapsed, which clears the way for Warnock to get into the runoff.  He's by far the strongest of the D candidates, but there was a danger that the D vote could be so split as to prevent him (or any other D) from making the runoff.

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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

Posted
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3 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

So Quinnipiac has been very favorable for the Ds in this cycle.  But I don't totally discount this.  There have been warning signs in Georgia for some time.

The really good news is the special.  Lieberman's support seems to have collapsed, which clears the way for Warnock to get into the runoff.  He's by far the strongest of the D candidates, but there was a danger that the D vote could be so split as to prevent him (or any other D) from making the runoff.

I really want Warnock against Loeffler. I think Loeffler is beatable and Collins is way too fucking crazy to be in the senate. 

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Ghost of LL

Ghost of LL 15492

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3 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

I really want Warnock against Loeffler. I think Loeffler is beatable and Collins is way too fucking crazy to be in the senate. 

I agree with that on both counts.  

Especially if Biden has won and the Dems have already taken the Senate, I could see Republicans being very demoralized and not voting in the runoff.  But the difference between 50 seats and 51 seats is huge (especially when you've got a guy like Joe Manchin in your caucus), and it would be pretty great for Warnock to get that win.

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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

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2 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

I agree with that on both counts.  

Especially if Biden has won and the Dems have already taken the Senate, I could see Republicans being very demoralized and not voting in the runoff.  But the difference between 50 seats and 51 seats is huge (especially when you've got a guy like Joe Manchin in your caucus), and it would be pretty great for Warnock to get that win.

Would also be nice because it wouldn’t force Harris to spend most of her time in the senate.

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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

Posted
Posted
20 minutes ago, JimmyJames said:

Just saw the latest Hegar ad. Finally emphasizes healthcare. Apparently she’s been listening to this board.

I still think she sucks! She needs to quit with the firing at the taliban while hanging out of the helicopter crap and focus on healthcare. 
 

still voting for her tho no matter what.

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JimmyJames

JimmyJames 12271

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17 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

I still think she sucks! She needs to quit with the firing at the taliban while hanging out of the helicopter crap and focus on healthcare. 
 

still voting for her tho no matter what.

She’s still running that ad too. Probably already paid for it. The latest one is better.

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 18983

Posted
Posted

So- I’ve long had North Carolina in the almost certainly Democrat column for Senate. Did Cal step on it badly enough with his BarBQ tweet to actually matter. I see lots of people there mocking him. It’s pretty cringe inducing I’m sure for people from there.

basically- he’s got on an apron and fancy Hot dog buns and a spatula on a gas grill with a caption that says something like - only thing better than Bar B Q is winning this senate seat. 
I can only assume this comes off like a Texas Pol endorsing liquid smoke for their brisket. 
Could this cost him a couple points?  Is he not actually from there? His campaign staff not from there. Does shit like this matter at all?  Only if it reinforces some other pre-existing narrative?  
how does Dukakis in a tank become Dukakis in a tank vs no big deal?  
I still have this state blue. 

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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

Posted
Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

So- I’ve long had North Carolina in the almost certainly Democrat column for Senate. Did Cal step on it badly enough with his BarBQ tweet to actually matter. I see lots of people there mocking him. It’s pretty cringe inducing I’m sure for people from there.

basically- he’s got on an apron and fancy Hot dog buns and a spatula on a gas grill with a caption that says something like - only thing better than Bar B Q is winning this senate seat. 
I can only assume this comes off like a Texas Pol endorsing liquid smoke for their brisket. 
Could this cost him a couple points?  Is he not actually from there? His campaign staff not from there. Does shit like this matter at all?  Only if it reinforces some other pre-existing narrative?  
how does Dukakis in a tank become Dukakis in a tank vs no big deal?  
I still have this state blue. 

I can’t imagine it mattering much.

i seem to remember senator warner of Virginia making an extremely nasty sandwich during quarantine and he let people watch him make it on zoom or whatever it was.

 

it ended up being a nothing burger. He should win easily.

Edited by Voldemort86
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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 18983

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16 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

I can’t imagine it mattering much.

i seem to remember senator warner of Virginia making an extremely nasty sandwich during quarantine and he let people watch him make it on zoom or whatever it was.

 

it ended up being a nothing burger. He should win easily.

That’s how I’d bet as well. So when does it become a Dukakis in a tank moment?  

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gmr548

gmr548 16518

Posted
Posted
Republicans think we’re cheating with the fundraising.
 
 
hahahaha
The talking point among Trumpkins is that actblue is some sort of shadow group that launders money abd diverts funds to BLM, Biden, etc (using the top fundraisers list as a source). I tried explaining that is a payment platform, and that saying actblue secretly diverts money to democrats is like saying visa secretly diverts your money to walmart when you buy something.

It did not go well.
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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

The talking point among Trumpkins is that actblue is some sort of shadow group that launders money abd diverts funds to BLM, Biden, etc (using the top fundraisers list as a source). I tried explaining that is a payment platform, and that saying actblue secretly diverts money to democrats is like saying visa secretly diverts your money to walmart when you buy something.

It did not go well.

Don’t expect them to understand how anything works.

its been almost 4 full years. They have been trained to yell “fake news” at anything they don’t like or want to believe is actually real.

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 18983

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15 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

I might argue that the Dukakis-in-a-tank moment wasn't even really a Dukakis-in-a-tank moment.

I’m certainly open to that argument- go ahead and make it. You ever see a picture of Kerry trying to catch a football?  Eyes closed arms together, hands upturned?  Bad stuff. Like made me wonder if he had a dad and if his dad loved him/was there for him. 
I’m pretty anti gun on a personal level. I just don’t have any desire to kill anything. If somebody told me I needed to get in a deer stand or waders I’d be like “nope” because that isn’t me and I’d likely show myself as a poser. That’s what that picture/tweet made me think. 
I’m always curious about stuff that gets traction and ends up mattering and stuff that doesn’t- and how that plays. 

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Ghost of LL

Ghost of LL 15492

Posted
Posted (edited)
17 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

I’m certainly open to that argument- go ahead and make it. You ever see a picture of Kerry trying to catch a football?  Eyes closed arms together, hands upturned?  Bad stuff. Like made me wonder if he had a dad and if his dad loved him/was there for him. 
I’m pretty anti gun on a personal level. I just don’t have any desire to kill anything. If somebody told me I needed to get in a deer stand or waders I’d be like “nope” because that isn’t me and I’d likely show myself as a poser. That’s what that picture/tweet made me think. 
I’m always curious about stuff that gets traction and ends up mattering and stuff that doesn’t- and how that plays. 

It was obviously a bad PR move.  But did it really move the polls?  I don't think there's much evidence of that.

Dukakis was injured earlier in September with the Boston Harbor ad and the Willie Horton ad.  That's when the polls really shifted in Bush's favor.  When the tank photo-op happened, Bush was already leading by 5 or 6 points.  That didn't change.

That lead was really solidified with the second debate with the "if Kitty Dukakis were raped and murdered" question.  That solidified the whole soft-on-crime narrative that was started with the Willie Horton ad.  And that's what cooked Dukakis's goose.

Edited by Ghost of LL
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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 18983

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Posted
7 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

It was obviously a bad PR move.  But did it really move the polls?  I don't think there's much evidence of that.

Dukakis was injured earlier in September with the Boston Harbor ad and the Willie Horton ad.  That's when the polls really shifted in Bush's favor.  When the tank photo-op happened, Bush was already leading by 5 or 6 points.  That didn't change.

That lead was really solidified with the second debate with the "if Kitty Dukakis were raped and murdered" question.  That solidified the whole soft-on-crime narrative that was started with the Willie Horton ad.  And that's what cooked Dukakis's goose.

I thought the tank came earlier than that. I was but a 10 year old at the time though so wasn’t fully locked in. 

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BehoId, The Underminer!

BehoId, The Underminer! 11668

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Posted
9 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

It was obviously a bad PR move.  But did it really move the polls?  I don't think there's much evidence of that.

Dukakis was injured earlier in September with the Boston Harbor ad and the Willie Horton ad.  That's when the polls really shifted in Bush's favor.  When the tank photo-op happened, Bush was already leading by 5 or 6 points.  That didn't change.

That lead was really solidified with the second debate with the "if Kitty Dukakis were raped and murdered" question.  That solidified the whole soft-on-crime narrative that was started with the Willie Horton ad.  And that's what cooked Dukakis's goose.

it was a proto-meme. if 2016-onward taught us anything, it is that visual shorthand for larger attack positions are very effective. 

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Patrick Bateman

Patrick Bateman 3903

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Posted
15 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

So- I’ve long had North Carolina in the almost certainly Democrat column for Senate. Did Cal step on it badly enough with his BarBQ tweet to actually matter. I see lots of people there mocking him. It’s pretty cringe inducing I’m sure for people from there.

basically- he’s got on an apron and fancy Hot dog buns and a spatula on a gas grill with a caption that says something like - only thing better than Bar B Q is winning this senate seat. 
I can only assume this comes off like a Texas Pol endorsing liquid smoke for their brisket. 
Could this cost him a couple points?  Is he not actually from there? His campaign staff not from there. Does shit like this matter at all?  Only if it reinforces some other pre-existing narrative?  
how does Dukakis in a tank become Dukakis in a tank vs no big deal?  
I still have this state blue. 

Cunningham was born in Winston Salem, grew up in Lexington, and graduated from UNC.  Tillis actually isn't from NC and moved there for a job with PWC.

Remember, social media (twitter, FB, etc) is pretty much a small section of a voting population.  10-15%.  It was a silly tweet with little upside, but folks getting their panties in a twist over barbecuing vs grilling is hilariously stupid.

 

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Ghost of LL

Ghost of LL 15492

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

I thought the tank came earlier than that. I was but a 10 year old at the time though so wasn’t fully locked in. 

My memory is that it was in mid-September.  It was right before the first debate.

Just now, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

it was a proto-meme. if 2016-onward taught us anything, it is that visual shorthand for larger attack positions are very effective. 

And I'm with you on that.  But the problem is that it wasn't any kind of larger attack position for which the tank was shorthand that cost Dukakis the election.  Dukakis lost because of crime and because it was 1988 and the economy was good.  I don't think there was any broader military position that materially hurt Dukakis.

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 18983

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1 minute ago, Patrick Bateman said:

Cunningham was born in Winston Salem, grew up in Lexington, and graduated from UNC.  Tillis actually isn't from NC and moved there for a job with PWC.

Remember, social media (twitter, FB, etc) is pretty much a small section of a voting population.  10-15%.  It was a silly tweet with little upside, but folks getting their panties in a twist over barbecuing vs grilling is hilariously stupid.

 

Lots of times stupid shit takes on oversized importance. And lots of times it stays as stupid shit. When does it cross over? Why? 

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Gatorubet

Gatorubet 30117

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Posted
I might argue that the Dukakis-in-a-tank moment wasn't even really a Dukakis-in-a-tank moment.

Much like nobody cared about or saw the Goldwater/LBJ mushroom cloud flower ad, but it earned a greater rep than it actually deserves because pundits keep talking about it.

Both were gonna lose.
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yoladu

yoladu 4067

Posted
Posted (edited)
16 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

Ernst is looking VERY vulnerable. Her numbers are cratering on predict it right now. Did they just have a debate?  Greenfield seems to have a very real shot at this right now.

i had heard they recently had a debate, but i had not heard how it went.

Greenfield is polling well the last 3 months, but 538 gives the slight, very slight lead to Ernst. The last 3 polls, which are A+ rated, have Greenfield up 2 or 3 poins.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/senate/iowa/

i would say Ernst's fortune, at this point, is likely tied to Trump. If Trump numbers drop, it's likely Ernst's numbers will too. And of course, the same if Trump's numbers rise.

Edited by yoladu
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Ghost of LL

Ghost of LL 15492

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Posted
28 minutes ago, yoladu said:

i had heard they recently had a debate, but i had not heard how it went.

Greenfield is polling well the last 3 months, but 538 gives the slight, very slight lead to Ernst. The last 3 polls, which are A+ rated, have Greenfield up 2 or 3 poins.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/senate/iowa/

i would say Ernst's fortune, at this point, is likely tied to Trump. If Trump numbers drop, it's likely Ernst's numbers will too. And of course, the same if Trump's numbers rise.

Yeah.  And Trump's numbers in Iowa haven't looked particularly good of late.

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lemonlime

lemonlime 5503

Posted
Posted

 

 

12 hours ago, gmr548 said:

The talking point among Trumpkins is that actblue is some sort of shadow group that launders money abd diverts funds to BLM, Biden, etc (using the top fundraisers list as a source). I tried explaining that is a payment platform, and that saying actblue secretly diverts money to democrats is like saying visa secretly diverts your money to walmart when you buy something.

It did not go well.

Every accusation is a confession.  Trump campaign diverted donation funds to the trump org.

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