2020 Senate Elections

[Biff Tannen 45,752]

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[Biff Tannen 45,752]

Been getting some really awful last minute donation emails from McGrath in Kentucky.  SHE'S FINISHED!  HOW COULD YOU LET THIS HAPPEN!

Good god people, have some self respect.  You sound like Republicans.

[406W30th 1,111]

I'm still v disappointed Charles Booker didn't win the nomination. Think he'd be on the level of Jamie Harrison, in terms of how interesting he'd have made his race against McConnell.

 

[atomheartbevo 89,878]

I occasionally go through and look at puzzle games for my phone.  Been trying out a few free versions recently, and holy shit are there a ton of MJ ads being run.  The ads are not targeted towards any one app, they are just ads taken out through Apple's ad service.    MJ has a lot of cash to burn if they are reaching out to people through in-app ads.

[Longhorn_Fan68 33,901]

3 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

I occasionally go through and look at puzzle games for my phone.  Been trying out a few free versions recently, and holy shit are there a ton of MJ ads being run.  The ads are not targeted towards any one app, they are just ads taken out through Apple's ad service.    MJ has a lot of cash to burn if they are reaching out to people through in-app ads.

or, those are very cheap and it's an easy way to reach people.

[Wulaw Horn 19,156]

2 hours ago, thepop said:

I mean maybe. It’s hard to rank them when you have McConnell, McSally, Loeffler, Cruz, Blackburn, Graham, etc.

 

5 hours ago, thepop said:

 

I’m betting on Johnson if (when) the Dems win the White House and senate this go round. 
Any list that doesn’t include the loon from Hawaii on the judiciary committee is partisan crap. America can do better on both sides at all levels in a lot of places. 

[thepop 4,409]

If I had to list the 100 senators from worst to best, I’m not sure the first 53 wouldn’t be republicans. Spare me the “both sides are bad” thing cause no Democrats voted to keep dotard in office but every republican did. The worst dem is probably Manchen or Menendez tho.

Edited October 26, 2020 by thepop

[DigglerontheHoof 21,263]

4 minutes ago, thepop said:

If I had to list the 100 senators from worst to best, I’m not sure the first 53 wouldn’t be republicans. Spare me the “both sides are bad” thing cause no Democrats voted to keep dotard in office but every republican did. The worst dem is probably Manchen or Menendez tho.

For the past 4 years, I'd absolutely list it like that and it's not even close. 

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11,669]

6 minutes ago, thepop said:

If I had to list the 100 senators from worst to best, I’m not sure the first 53 wouldn’t be republicans. Spare me the “both sides are bad” thing cause no Democrats voted to keep dotard in office but every republican did. The worst dem is probably Manchen or Menendez tho.

*Romney

[Bateshorn 9,942]

Manchen is personally fine.  He ably and correctly represents West Virginia. 
 

Menendez is crooked as fuck.  

Edited October 26, 2020 by Bateshorn

[thepop 4,409]

25 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

*Romney

Romney voted yes on one charge, no on the other. He might be the "best" republican senator.

[SydneyCarton 48,240]

I’d probably take Romney over Finestein. 

[Bookman 4,649]

2 hours ago, Biff Tannen said:

Been getting some really awful last minute donation emails from McGrath in Kentucky.  SHE'S FINISHED!  HOW COULD YOU LET THIS HAPPEN!

Good god people, have some self respect.  You sound like Republicans.

I hate the daily emails. If they told me why they needed the money I'd be much more likely to give.

[Fudge Nuggets 19,239]

I have received a total of zero political emails and texts.  Not sure how other than I’m not dumb enough to use my real email address or phone number on just about anything.

[Longhorn_Fan68 33,901]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/senate/

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11,669]

45 minutes ago, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/senate/

Cook disagrees with Nate and puts IA above NC as the more likely flip.

[Voldemort86 2,259]

Feinstein, grassley, and inhofe are all fucking dinosaurs who need to be jettisoned ASAP.

[Wulaw Horn 19,156]

36 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

Cook disagrees with Nate and puts IA above NC as the more likely flip.

They probably both will but I’d put that in order of likelihood. 

[thepop 4,409]

Tweet was deleted but it was a video of Graham asking for money again on Fox.

 

Edited October 27, 2020 by thepop

[Nice Guy Eddie 13,530]

Warnock may get close to 50 in GA next week. It will be a big miss if he falls just short and then has a run-off when it's the only race on the ballot. It's doubtful the run-off would anywhere as much attention and could easily swing back to the GOP candidate winning.

[horncyclist 1,391]

Just now, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Warnock may get close to 50 in GA next week. It will be a big miss if he falls just short and then has a run-off when it's the only race on the ballot. It's doubtful the run-off would anywhere as much attention and could easily swing back to the GOP candidate winning.

Control of the Senate could be at stake. If so, get ready for a $100 million runoff.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13,530]

3 minutes ago, horncyclist said:

Control of the Senate could be at stake. If so, get ready for a $100 million runoff.

You could be right. For the losing Presidential side, it would be a major consolation prize to take/hold the senate majority as that would create a barrier to the president's agenda next year.

[Wulaw Horn 19,156]

4 minutes ago, horncyclist said:

Control of the Senate could be at stake. If so, get ready for a $100 million runoff.

Nah. Might be difference between 51 and 52. 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13,530]

What's the latest on the timing of swearing-in of a senator winning a special election? If Mark Kelly and Warnock both win, shouldn't they be sworn in ASAP to replace unelected senators? Maybe not Nov. 4th but as soon as their race is certified, is there any justification of a delay?

[Longhorn_Fan68 33,901]

2 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

What's the latest on the timing of swearing-in of a senator winning a special election? If Mark Kelly and Warnock both win, shouldn't they be sworn in ASAP to replace unelected senators? Maybe not Nov. 4th but as soon as their race is certified, is there any justification of a delay?

I've been wondering that as well.

[kevwun 15,938]

I remember reading something awhile back that Kelly could be sworn in early.

[Pescado_Rojo 19,452]

I read somewhere Kelly could be seated as soon as 11/20. No idea on Warnock. 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13,530]

11 minutes ago, Pescado_Rojo said:

I read somewhere Kelly could be seated as soon as 11/20. No idea on Warnock. 

So with the Senate adjourned until 11/9, McSally actually only has a ~2 weeks left to do damage.

[High Plains Drifter 11,054]

1 hour ago, horncyclist said:

Control of the Senate could be at stake. If so, get ready for a $100 million runoff.

 

Man, I pity the poor fools populace of GA if that happens.

 

[elfenix 34,364]

On 10/21/2020 at 4:33 PM, atomheartbevo said:

Mitt should go independent.  Hell, the Mormons already flirt with that as it is, given that quite a few have spoken out against Trump.

the mormons already have experience being independent

 

[Queen Bitch 1,692]

Thanks Lieberman.

[Biff Tannen 45,752]

3 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Nah. Might be difference between 51 and 52. 

Anyone else feel like Wulaw might just be doing a long con on us?  He's so confident the Rs are going to get blasted and then if they don't, I could see him flipping and being like "HAHA, TAKE THAT LIBS!"

If not, sorry man, but it's the internet.  You never know.

[Biff Tannen 45,752]

2 hours ago, Pescado_Rojo said:

I read somewhere Kelly could be seated as soon as 11/20. No idea on Warnock. 

This sounds right.  Who decides that anyway?  Could Mitch block it?

[Wulaw Horn 19,156]

17 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

Anyone else feel like Wulaw might just be doing a long con on us?  He's so confident the Rs are going to get blasted and then if they don't, I could see him flipping and being like "HAHA, TAKE THAT LIBS!"

If not, sorry man, but it's the internet.  You never know.

Dude- no long con. I will be up front that I want the GOP to control the Senate #1- if I can’t have that I want Manchin to be the deciding vote and run things #2, number 3 option would be 51-49 etc. 

But what I want has nothing to do with what I think will happen and how I make my analysis or make my bets. 
If I’m wrong I will own that. But I’m really good at handicapping elections- I think the only one I’ve ever blown- counting midterms- is the 2016 one. Lost big on that. 
If you can’t see and feel the energy from the last 3.5 years, and understand what’s happening, and see where the seats are in play and still think there any chance that the Dems aren’t going to take the Senate and the White House then the only thing I can say to you is I think you have your head so far up your own ass that you can’t see reality. 

TL/DR- I try to live in reality. I’m not Bama chick running around predicting a Doug Jones win bc that’s what I want to happen. 

Edited October 27, 2020 by Wulaw Horn

[Wulaw Horn 19,156]

flips:

Maine- dem

CO- Dem

AZ- dem

NC- Dem

IA- Dem

Bama- GOP

51/49 Dem when everything shakes loose and goes final  

if I’m wrong it will be because I guessed low instead of high and Dems also flipped (my order of likeliness) GA, GA, MT, AK, SC, TX, KS.  
I don’t think there’s anything else possible  unless I’m wrong about Trump in the Midwest - I think James is guaranteed to run ahead of Trump in MI, maybe by 2 or 3 points, so if that’s close enough he will flip that seat- but I truly don’t believe MI will be close at all.  

 

[Biff Tannen 45,752]

2 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

flips:

Maine- dem

CO- Dem

AZ- dem

NC- Dem

IA- Dem

Bama- GOP

51/49 Dem when everything shakes loose and goes final  

if I’m wrong it will be because I guessed low instead of high and Dems also flipped (my order of likeliness) GA, GA, MT, AK, SC, TX, KS.  
I don’t think there’s anything else possible  unless I’m wrong about Trump in the Midwest - I think James is guaranteed to run ahead of Trump in MI, maybe by 2 or 3 points, so if that’s close enough he will flip that seat- but I truly don’t believe MI will be close at all.  

 

This is actually what I think too, but unsure on IA.  SC would be a nice surprise.

[Wulaw Horn 19,156]

11 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

This is actually what I think too, but unsure on IA.  SC would be a nice surprise.

Note I have that all the way to 5th on my likely to flip list so I’m betting it doesn’t happen. 
I’ve got IA and NC races in lockstep between presidential and senate races. Whoever wins presidential in state likely to win the senate in that state. 

[Biff Tannen 45,752]

1 hour ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Note I have that all the way to 5th on my likely to flip list so I’m betting it doesn’t happen. 
I’ve got IA and NC races in lockstep between presidential and senate races. Whoever wins presidential in state likely to win the senate in that state. 

I think the voters could make GA happen, but I don't trust the state government to allow that for one single second.  They will absolutely break every law and use every illegal tactic possible to stop that from flipping.  They already did it in 2018.

[babysdaddy 2,730]

2 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

flips:

Maine- dem

CO- Dem

AZ- dem

NC- Dem

IA- Dem

Bama- GOP

51/49 Dem when everything shakes loose and goes final  

if I’m wrong it will be because I guessed low instead of high and Dems also flipped (my order of likeliness) GA, GA, MT, AK, SC, TX, KS.  
I don’t think there’s anything else possible  unless I’m wrong about Trump in the Midwest - I think James is guaranteed to run ahead of Trump in MI, maybe by 2 or 3 points, so if that’s close enough he will flip that seat- but I truly don’t believe MI will be close at all.  

 

Don't know about NC, IA, or MI.  I think we end up with a 50/50 with Michigan being a surprise or 51/49 if NC stays R.

[Wulaw Horn 19,156]

1 minute ago, babysdaddy said:

Don't know about NC, IA, or MI.  I think we end up with a 50/50 with Michigan being a surprise or 51/49 if NC stays R.

I’d be extremely shocked if it’s not at least 51/49 D. 

[Bozo_Casanova 26,613]

5 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Warnock may get close to 50 in GA next week. It will be a big miss if he falls just short and then has a run-off when it's the only race on the ballot. It's doubtful the run-off would anywhere as much attention and could easily swing back to the GOP candidate winning.

I'm not sure about that this cycle. I think it's entirely possible that 1) IF Biden Wins AND 2) Dems win control of the senate with 51 already, the GOP will be too deflated and cash strapped to mount a major offensive, whereas national money will pour into Georgia to rub their noses in it. 

 

 

[babysdaddy 2,730]

17 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

I’d be extremely shocked if it’s not at least 51/49 D. 

Normally I'd agree but I think there is usually one surprise against the consensus.  That surprise could also end up being Texas or South Carolina going Dem and having 53/47 Dem split.

[Wulaw Horn 19,156]

14 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

I'm not sure about that this cycle. I think it's entirely possible that 1) IF Biden Wins AND 2) Dems win control of the senate with 51 already, the GOP will be too deflated and cash strapped to mount a major offensive, whereas national money will pour into Georgia to rub their noses in it. 

 

 

Likely so. 

[Ghost of LL 15,562]

42 minutes ago, babysdaddy said:

Normally I'd agree but I think there is usually one surprise against the consensus.  That surprise could also end up being Texas or South Carolina going Dem and having 53/47 Dem split.

If you want a surprise, then I'd really look at Alaska.  Alaska is hard to poll.  But the polls that are there show the incumbent well below 50%.  That's not great this late in the game.

The runner-up would be Montana.  I mean, we've already established that there's going to be a lot of ticket-splitting in Montana.  It's just a question of whether there will be enough.

[Bama Chick 28,596]

The Lincoln Project is running ads on television there for a fringe third party MAGA candidate to bleed votes from Lindsay Graham from the right.

Republican ratfuckery is unmatched.

[JohnLocke 115]

In RCP with R's up 45 to 46 with 9 tossups.   You can book the 45 D & 46 R's

Not really tossups for the R's--S.C, Montana, Georgia   You can book them.

Not really tossups for the D's-Maine, Minnesota

That leaves Arizona, Michigan, N.C. , Iowa

N.C. was in the bag for D's, 50/50 now and trending R. What a dumbshit Cunningham is.

Arizona-trending R, but likely D.

Michigan. R has a shot, good candidate,  but probable D

49 each and comes down to Iowa and N.C.    True 50/50's,  but I think N.C. goes R now.

 

 

[thepop 4,409]

I can't stop laughing

 

[gmr548 16,617]

In RCP with R's up 45 to 46 with 9 tossups.   You can book the 45 D & 46 R's
Not really tossups for the R's--S.C, Montana, Georgia   You can book them.
Not really tossups for the D's-Maine, Minnesota
That leaves Arizona, Michigan, N.C. , Iowa
N.C. was in the bag for D's, 50/50 now and trending R. What a dumbshit Cunningham is.
Arizona-trending R, but likely D.
Michigan. R has a shot, good candidate,  but probable D
49 each and comes down to Iowa and N.C.    True 50/50's,  but I think N.C. goes R now.
 
 

Care to elaborate on your NC assertion? Polls haven’t moved much unless you’re looking at garbage like Trafalgar.

[Bama Chick 28,596]

This feels important.

[Longhorn_Fan68 33,901]

1 minute ago, Bama Chick said:

This feels important.
 

I'm high, mind summarizing?