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2020 Senate Elections

Patrick Bateman

By Patrick Bateman
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Gil Bang
Gil Bang
Chuckie Finster
Chuckie Finster

It might be petty, it’s certainly not healthy, but I want to destroy this man. Not just politically, but I want him curled up in the fetal position on his bathroom floor wondering where his life went

hornmpa96
hornmpa96

Until 2016, I was a lifelong Republican. In 2016, I couldn’t vote for either Trump or Clinton and so I threw away my vote on Gary Johnson. All of my concerns about a Trump Presidency have been realize

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Superhero

Superhero 8774

Posted
Posted
6 hours ago, Hornius Emeritus said:

So I haven't been following Georgia at all and just became aware of Jon Ossoff when I saw this video.  This is pretty much an epic beatdown. 
 


 

First time on this thread, but wanted to say that was the most eloquent, beautiful beatdown of a political opponent. Get this guy and Pete Buttiigieg on a ticket already.

its always sunny rage GIF by It's Always Sunny in Philadelphia

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Gil Bang

Gil Bang 25897

Posted
Posted
20 minutes ago, Planet Houston said:

https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/senate/georgia

Gives Ossoff a 59% chance.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/senate/georgia/

Gives Perdue a 58% chance, haha. 

Point is, it’s a tossup. I just threw $100 at Ossoff. Who else is with me?

I'll go 50

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Ghost of LL

Ghost of LL 15489

Posted
Posted
https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/senate/georgia
Gives Ossoff a 59% chance.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/senate/georgia/
Gives Perdue a 58% chance, haha. 
Point is, it’s a tossup. I just threw $100 at Ossoff. Who else is with me?

There is no way to put it to use between now and Tuesday. But I’ll tell you what—if he goes to a runoff I’ll toss in a grand.


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NameAlreadyInUse

NameAlreadyInUse 5106

Posted
Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, Planet Houston said:

https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/senate/georgia

Gives Ossoff a 59% chance.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/senate/georgia/

Gives Perdue a 58% chance, haha. 

Point is, it’s a tossup. I just threw $100 at Ossoff. Who else is with me?

Ok I’m in.  I like to reward good behavior.  

Edited by NameAlreadyInUse
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Zonahorn

Zonahorn 8079

Posted
Posted (edited)
16 hours ago, Bateshorn said:

ATL is just big and banal. 
 

I think @Wulaw Horn is probably right about the Senate and the Presidency.  I’d say in AZ, McSally seems to be disliked by the electorate in a way that is separate from Trump.  

Almost like our dipshit governor appointed her after she lost an election. And that was before somebody convinced Kelly to run. 

 

For worst airports I nominate Philly 

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Bozo_Casanova

Bozo_Casanova 26279

Posted
Posted
11 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Here's a look at his social media/staff on whether he should debate again:

spacer.png

I mean, he's a shitty person, but honestly, if you were advising him, no way you let him back in the ring.

This

9 hours ago, Underdog said:

Makes you boil thinking about Perdue skipping out on a debate, it really does.  

Can you blame him? The only thing he’s got Trump at this point.

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 18980

Posted
Posted
9 hours ago, Planet Houston said:

https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/senate/georgia

Gives Ossoff a 59% chance.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/senate/georgia/

Gives Perdue a 58% chance, haha. 

Point is, it’s a tossup. I just threw $100 at Ossoff. Who else is with me?

Why?  I can’t imagine any dollar sent now having any spending effect, anything collected now that’s for retiring debt and stuff like that I’d think, no?  Do what you want, obviously, but if I was going to spend a hundo on a senate race in GA it’d be the runoff. That can still get used I’d think. 

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BehoId, The Underminer!

BehoId, The Underminer! 11668

Posted
Posted
Quote

Senate

October 28: Alaska moves from Likely to Leans Republican; Georgia (regular) from Tilt Republican to Toss-up; Georgia (special) from Leans to Tilt Republican.

that would be great.

https://www.270towin.com/news/2020/10/28/inside-elections-updates-outlook-president-senate-house_1118.html

 

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Planet Houston

Planet Houston 4923

Posted
Posted (edited)
19 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Why?  I can’t imagine any dollar sent now having any spending effect, anything collected now that’s for retiring debt and stuff like that I’d think, no?  Do what you want, obviously, but if I was going to spend a hundo on a senate race in GA it’d be the runoff. That can still get used I’d think. 

I assume that anything they don’t use between now and Tuesday would be used in a runoff. 

Whatever, at least I’m trying to support things I believe in. And I believe motherfuckers like Perdue need to lose. 

Edit - this take is unfair to Ossoff. While I believe Perdue needs to lose, I spent a good amount of time researching Ossoff yesterday and I think he’s a really interesting and good candidate.  It’s not only anti-Republican sentiment, we have some great candidates in their own right. 

If only a better candidate had been running against Cornyn...sigh. 

Edited by Planet Houston
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Ghost of LL

Ghost of LL 15489

Posted
Posted
10 hours ago, Planet Houston said:

Why’s that? TV and radio ads can’t be bought between now and Tuesday? That seems unlikely. 

There has to be supply.  And right now, there's just no supply.  Every ad between now and Tuesday has been bought up.

Ad buys are done weeks in advance.  Clearing the money, depositing it in the operating account, and accounting for it takes a day.  So the soonest they can spend it is Saturday.  And there just isn't any ad time that hasn't been bought up.

And there's no real way to put more people on the payroll.  And at this point, what would you be hiring them to do?  Ossoff should have plenty of volunteers to man the GOTV efforts.  If anything, you'd be paying for an additional round of data collection/assessment to figure out who has not yet voted to sic your volunteers on them.  But I would expect that Ossoff already has that under control.

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swraith

swraith 336

Posted
Posted

I think I am letting my hopes about the Senate get too high.  Everyone of these toss-up Senate races that ends up going to the GOP is going to feel like a loss for another 6 years.  A loss in the opportunity to further repudiate the actions of the GOP over the last 4 years.

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Gap03

Gap03 3285

Posted
Posted

Based on the most recent Marist and Rasmussen (I know it's shit, just using it for consistency of split) polls, Cunningham is running 4 pts ahead of Biden (+10 vs +6 on Marist; +3 vs. -1 on Rasmussen).  That's a good sign for Cunningham because it seems like, at worst, the presidential race is a dead heat in NC.  If that +4 spread holds, it feels pretty likely that Cunningham wins.

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 18980

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Gap03 said:

Based on the most recent Marist and Rasmussen (I know it's shit, just using it for consistency of split) polls, Cunningham is running 4 pts ahead of Biden (+10 vs +6 on Marist; +3 vs. -1 on Rasmussen).  That's a good sign for Cunningham because it seems like, at worst, the presidential race is a dead heat in NC.  If that +4 spread holds, it feels pretty likely that Cunningham wins.

That’s just hard for me to believe. I’m not saying it’s wrong but it’s odd. 
remember- in 2016 every single senate Republican candidate (In contested and swingy states anyway) ran ahead of Trump (not by a lot but by a little). I don’t see any particular reason to believe that’s changing, but maybe there’s a 4% Trump vote admiring sexual infidelity, or who likes Trump but hates Tillis or something like that.
This just seems really odd to me. 
I have NC flipping, but not because Cunningham runs 4 points ahead of Trump. 
I expect Trump to run well ahead in AZ and MT and pretty much nowhere else that’s contested. Ax because McSally is a boat anchor- MT due to the quality and name recognizing of the Dem candidate. There’s just no real argument that Cunningham is a good candidate. He’s boring. He was picked to be boring. He’s been boring. And now he’s got himself caught in a scandal. What am I missing?  Again, this is not an argument that he loses just that he runs behind Biden. 

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StassneyHorn

StassneyHorn 6538

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

That’s just hard for me to believe. I’m not saying it’s wrong but it’s odd. 
remember- in 2016 every single senate Republican candidate (In contested and swingy states anyway) ran ahead of Trump (not by a lot but by a little). I don’t see any particular reason to believe that’s changing, but maybe there’s a 4% Trump vote admiring sexual infidelity, or who likes Trump but hates Tillis or something like that.
This just seems really odd to me. 
I have NC flipping, but not because Cunningham runs 4 points ahead of Trump. 
I expect Trump to run well ahead in AZ and MT and pretty much nowhere else that’s contested. Ax because McSally is a boat anchor- MT due to the quality and name recognizing of the Dem candidate. There’s just no real argument that Cunningham is a good candidate. He’s boring. He was picked to be boring. He’s been boring. And now he’s got himself caught in a scandal. What am I missing?  Again, this is not an argument that he loses just that he runs behind Biden. 

Tillis pissed off the “Wall” Republicans a year ago and that’s why he runs behind Trump. Called the emergency declaration an overreach for border funds. That is the heartbeat of Trumps support.

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 18980

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Posted
1 hour ago, StassneyHorn said:

Tillis pissed off the “Wall” Republicans a year ago and that’s why he runs behind Trump. Called the emergency declaration an overreach for border funds. That is the heartbeat of Trumps support.

So what are those people going to do?  Vote Dem?  Leave it blank? Seems like those guys typically come back home, even if it’s begrudgingly. 

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StassneyHorn

StassneyHorn 6538

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4 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

So what are those people going to do?  Vote Dem?  Leave it blank? Seems like those guys typically come back home, even if it’s begrudgingly. 

They’ll do what every strict, constitutionalist Republican who is cool with weed will do and vote for the Libertarian or Constitution party candidate they know nothing about and did not research beforehand. And both of those third parties are on the ballot in this N.C. race to siphon away votes from Tillis.

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quigley

quigley 1527

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Posted
20 hours ago, Planet Houston said:

Why’s that? TV and radio ads can’t be bought between now and Tuesday? That seems unlikely. 

Osoff's got a ton of money. Raising cash isn't the problem. Partisan inelasticity of the GA electorate is the issue.

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Mdhorn

Mdhorn 5911

Posted
Posted
12 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Why?  I can’t imagine any dollar sent now having any spending effect, anything collected now that’s for retiring debt and stuff like that I’d think, no?  Do what you want, obviously, but if I was going to spend a hundo on a senate race in GA it’d be the runoff. That can still get used I’d think. 

Ossoff has a war chest at this point.  He's not lacking for donations.  I'd donate to Maine and unseat Collins, Texas or North Carolina.  

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 18980

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Posted (edited)
14 minutes ago, Mdhorn said:

Ossoff has a war chest at this point.  He's not lacking for donations.  I'd donate to Maine and unseat Collins, Texas or North Carolina.  

It’s not about Ossoff it’s about donating to anyone 96 hours before election. For all the reasons LL laid out- it seems pointless if you are talking about having any affect on the race. If I was going to donate to a candidate I would save my powder for the GA runoff. 

Edited by Wulaw Horn
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Bama Chick

Bama Chick 28596

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Posted

Money donated this late probably won’t help in regards to buying television time.

But I know Doug Jones is having a final push for donations to fund get out the vote efforts and other voter mobilization efforts so, depending on the campaign and what they have planned, donations right now can definitely help. Especially if the race is close and turnout could be the factor.

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Fudge Nuggets

Fudge Nuggets 19151

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Posted

Or all these dudes are having a final push for donations to line their pockets.  No, that would never happen. 

Don't get me wrong, I hope every D running wins but maybe a race should be won or lost on ideas instead of how much money you can raise.  I know, crazy talk but y'all keep throwing your money into the smudge pot of politics as you wish.  I think you would get more enjoyment setting it on fire in your driveway though.

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