2020 Senate Elections

[Pato del Muerto 52664]

4 hours ago, quigley said:

Having Warnock and that q-seeking nut both go to Congress in the same year from the same state would define the poles of American politics.

That said, unfortunately, I don't think either Warnock or Ossoff win runoffs.

Warnock only got like 37% as the only dem on the ballot. In a state about to give 49% to the only dem at the top, and 47%? to the other senate seat dem candidate. 
 

not sure why so many jumped to one of the R candidates or if he’s likely to draw better or the same vs only 1 R. 

[RayDog 682]

15 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Warnock only got like 37% as the only dem on the ballot. In a state about to give 49% to the only dem at the top, and 47%? to the other senate seat dem candidate. 
 

not sure why so many jumped to one of the R candidates or if he’s likely to draw better or the same vs only 1 R. 

I just checked and the current percentages add to 48.1% for Democratic candidates and 2.3% for third party candidates in the Georgia special election.  There could be rounding errors that throw off the total. 

I hope that both go to a runoff since Warnock and Ossoff will pull in voters from across the Democratic coalition. Then we can hope that Trump cultists stay home. 

[henrygandorf 29198]

15 minutes ago, RayDog said:

I just checked and the current percentages add to 48.1% for Democratic candidates and 2.3% for third party candidates in the Georgia special election.  There could be rounding errors that throw off the total. 

I hope that both go to a runoff since Warnock and Ossoff will pull in voters from across the Democratic coalition. Then we can hope that Trump cultists stay home. 

time to send in the all-star team of strategists and operatives. not much on the line here. 

[Dnaguy 12181]

Is Alaska still a possible Dem pickup?

Was the optimism warranted?

Seems like there’s a huge R lead with a little more than half the vote left.

I was super curious why Carville brought it up the other day.

[G650 14284]

12 hours ago, BradInATX said:

Dems will probably get 50 or 51 in 2022. That's fine, it's not disastrous. Spend the first two years dealing with Covid, rebuilding relationships, alliances, and the day-to-day workings of government. There's a ton of work to do there that will take multiple years. Make that the goal of the first half of this term, then shoot for the senate in 2022 and that's when you push legislation.

Honestly, it's probably what would have happened even if the Dems got 50 this time around. There's too much to clean up and fix right now to really invest time into big legislation, I would think.

I generally agree with this. But if you can get 50/50 with the GA runoff, and VP is the tie breaker....

[BradInATX 9208]

24 minutes ago, G650 said:

I generally agree with this. But if you can get 50/50 with the GA runoff, and VP is the tie breaker....

Well sure, that's definitely the upside. I think it's pretty well impossible that either of those GA races will go to the dems, despite them inevitably spending millions on it. The "the election was stolen, we have to block the socialists in the senate" momentum is going to be much stronger than the anti-Trump emotion which will likely be pretty calmed down by the time the special election rolls around. And Georgia is still a pink-ish state. I think it's a foregone conclusion that the Rs win both of those.

[G650 14284]

1 minute ago, BradInATX said:

I think it's a foregone conclusion that the Rs win both of those.

I actually disagree about this. I do think they are favored, but I can see the Trump bubble bursting pretty rapidly among low propensity voters.

[Bevo14 8386]

16 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

Well sure, that's definitely the upside. I think it's pretty well impossible that either of those GA races will go to the dems, despite them inevitably spending millions on it. The "the election was stolen, we have to block the socialists in the senate" momentum is going to be much stronger than the anti-Trump emotion which will likely be pretty calmed down by the time the special election rolls around. And Georgia is still a pink-ish state. I think it's a foregone conclusion that the Rs win both of those.

Will MAGA continue to give a fuck with Trump out of it though? His voters that are normally engaged will turn out but I think it remains to be seen for the others. I don't think it's a foregone conclusion.

Edited November 5, 2020 by Bevo14

[BradInATX 9208]

Fair points. Hope you're right and I'm wrng.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13530]

9 hours ago, Chapo said:

Posted this in the prez thread:

I took the data from the link below and extrapolate to get 100% votes (presuming current split holds for each county):

 

	Perdue	Ossoff
Total Votes	2572855	2466318
%	49.87%	47.81%

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-elections/georgia-senate-results?icid=election_usmap

 

It's something like Ossoff needs to get about 55-56% of the remaining GA ballots that either go for Perdue or Ossoff. You have to suspect a few pct points go 3rd party.

Seems likely. 

[StassneyHorn 6673]

I wonder how much/if there will be any “tag-team” style ads for the two special elections if it indeed goes that way. 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13530]

8 minutes ago, StassneyHorn said:

I wonder how much/if there will be any “tag-team” style ads for the two special elections if it indeed goes that way. 

I don't see how or why both sides wouldn't cooperate with each other. 

Across the board its seems like the GOP has a 49-47 lead in both races. Who gets the Indy vote, and which has the enthusiasm? I could argue both sides of the last question.

Also important to remember that new voters can register for the run-off as it doesn't matter if you voted this week or not. I imagine there will be a renewed voter registration push in the upcoming weeks, along with heavy amounts of out of state money and volunteers. 

Edited November 5, 2020 by Nice Guy Eddie

[Dnaguy 12181]

7 minutes ago, StassneyHorn said:

I wonder how much/if there will be any “tag-team” style ads for the two special elections if it indeed goes that way. 

it would be smart for Ossoff and Warnock. Ossoff is going to need a HUGE black turnout again and Warnock [checks notes] is black. 

If I’m Perdue, I’m not touching Loeffler with a 10 ft pole. Shes and idiot and I have to think the shady shit she pulled with her stock sell off is going to be hammered.

My guess is this is going to be nationalized and just boil down to be a vote for / against communism.

Trump will be too pissy and too concerned with saving his own ass to participate.

 

[WBT 20703]

23 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

Well sure, that's definitely the upside. I think it's pretty well impossible that either of those GA races will go to the dems, despite them inevitably spending millions on it. The "the election was stolen, we have to block the socialists in the senate" momentum is going to be much stronger than the anti-Trump emotion which will likely be pretty calmed down by the time the special election rolls around. And Georgia is still a pink-ish state. I think it's a foregone conclusion that the Rs win both of those.

I think you're probably right but it's going to be fascinating.  Trump drives so much of the passion and turnout on both sides.  What will be the net effect of him being out of the picture?  I'd tend to say it looks more like a typical midterm where the party with the presidency is fat and happy and the out of power party is more motivated.  I feel sorry for all Georgians for the ads they're about to be bombarded with.

[Dnaguy 12181]

6 minutes ago, WBT said:

I think you're probably right but it's going to be fascinating.  Trump drives so much of the passion and turnout on both sides.  What will be the net effect of him being out of the picture?  I'd tend to say it looks more like a typical midterm where the party with the presidency is fat and happy and the out of power party is more motivated.  I feel sorry for all Georgians for the ads they're about to be bombarded 

Every timeout in Georgia from now to January

 

 

Edited November 5, 2020 by Dnaguy

[Nice Guy Eddie 13530]

Does anyone know to what precision GA decides the 50% mark? I assume at least 1 decimal place and hopefully the law addresses it. I wouldnt want to see a judge make the decision.

[Longhorn_Fan68 33901]

wrong thread

Edited November 5, 2020 by Longhorn_Fan68

[WBT 20703]

22 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Does anyone know to what precision GA decides the 50% mark? I assume at least 1 decimal place and hopefully the law addresses it. I wouldnt want to see a judge make the decision.

I would assume it has to be votes received >= votes cast/2

Edited November 5, 2020 by WBT

[FondrenRoad 4378]

23 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Does anyone know to what precision GA decides the 50% mark? I assume at least 1 decimal place and hopefully the law addresses it. I wouldnt want to see a judge make the decision.

I think its by actual votes. You either have 50%+1 of votes cast or you don't. 

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

32 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Does anyone know to what precision GA decides the 50% mark? I assume at least 1 decimal place and hopefully the law addresses it. I wouldnt want to see a judge make the decision.

lol

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

the votes are digital, not analog Eddie

[Nice Guy Eddie 13530]

I don't think some of you understand percentages.

[Dnaguy 12181]

6 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

the votes are digital, not analog Eddie

[Dnaguy 12181]

5 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I don't think some of you understand percentages.

[WBT 20703]

17 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I don't think some of you understand percentages.

I agree that there's a misunderstanding somewhere

[Neonmoon 38130]

 

[Neonmoon 38130]

This guy is good. I hope he wins

 

[thepop 4409]

 

[babysdaddy 2730]

So assuming alaska and nc, gop has 50.  Even in a 50/50 split I don't think the fillibuster and court expansion happens with kamala as the tie breaker. 

Over/under of $250mm being spent in Georgia on these runoffs.  I'm going to guess GOP gets them both.  All the votes against Trump by white suburban women are going to flip back to make sure GOP serves as a brake on the dems.

[FondrenRoad 4378]

1 hour ago, babysdaddy said:

So assuming alaska and nc, gop has 50.  Even in a 50/50 split I don't think the fillibuster and court expansion happens with kamala as the tie breaker. 

Over/under of $250mm being spent in Georgia on these runoffs.  I'm going to guess GOP gets them both.  All the votes against Trump by white suburban women are going to flip back to make sure GOP serves as a brake on the dems.

Court packing won't happen. But PR statehood might. 

[Pato del Muerto 52664]

Perdue at 50.0%. Cannot tell if they are rounding up or down to that number. 
i assume 49.999 still means runoff?

[babysdaddy 2730]

7 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Perdue at 50.0%. Cannot tell if they are rounding up or down to that number. 
i assume 49.999 still means runoff?

yes.  he has to have 50% +1 vote to win.  50% minus one vote = runoff

[Pato del Muerto 52664]

Using what shows up currently in a google search, it’s 

2,437,400/(2437400+2326907+112688)=
 

0.49977

so 49.977% and i presume dropping. 

[Brew 3049]

37 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Using what shows up currently in a google search, it’s 

2,437,400/(2437400+2326907+112688)=
 

0.49977

so 49.977% and i presume dropping. 

This is what it looks like to me. Going to make this whole thing interesting if this holds.

[thepop 4409]

Soooo Al Gross thinks he's going to win

 

 

[gmr548 16617]

The GOP will absolutely win both runoffs.

[swraith 347]

^^Yeah, that is my baseline assumption.

[Pasken 1309]

51 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

The GOP will absolutely win both runoffs.

Probably but both gop senators enjoyed the support of mouth breather trump only voters and a decent amount of those will not bother going out and voting in the runoffs because they generally don’t vote.

[StassneyHorn 6673]

Fox News and other GOP elected officials aren’t really coming out to aggressively defend him. Haven’t seen anything from Loeffler or Perdue, but I also haven’t looked. If he ignores them or they don’t give him the money he wants, look out. He could help them win it, but he can absolutely make them lose it.

[Voldemort86 2259]

3 hours ago, Pasken said:

Probably but both gop senators enjoyed the support of mouth breather trump only voters and a decent amount of those will not bother going out and voting in the runoffs because they generally don’t vote.

I’m starting to lose hope that we will ever catch the GOP napping. I thought the election this week would be Biden winning easily.
 

they’re pretty much a bunch of big stupid zombies who show up to vote no matter what.

Edited November 6, 2020 by Voldemort86

[Pato del Muerto 52664]

Georgia falling to Biden should motivate both sides to show up in January. Not sure what the runoff rules are with early voting and such though. There will be money spent in Georgia over the next 8 weeks. 

[DigglerontheHoof 21263]

So I know Cruz and Lady Bug went all fascist last night, have any other scumbags thrown in behind dear leader?

[horncyclist 1391]

15 hours ago, thepop said:

Soooo Al Gross thinks he's going to win

 

 

Not any reporting on this. Would be awesome if he somehow pulled off a miracle. Would be nice to only have to win one in GA. 

[Wulaw Horn 19156]

What are the odds Georgia splits tickets in their two runoffs?  10/1?  Lower?  Better?  

[Neonmoon 38130]

4 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

What are the odds Georgia splits tickets in their two runoffs?  10/1?  Lower?  Better?  

It's going to be weird. The turnout will be much lower IMO because Trump isn't on the ticket. Conventional wisdom thinks that hurts Dems but the numbers show Trump got huge turnout this cycle as well. 

[RayDog 682]

Comparing 2018 and 2020 it appears the Republicans got the bigger bump by having Trump on the ticket. 

[BigOrange1 6476]

andrew yang is literally moving to georgia to try and help take the senate back from mcconnell. 

[G650 14284]

4 minutes ago, BigOrange1 said:

andrew yang is literally moving to georgia to try and help take the senate back from mcconnell. 

Srsly?

[BigOrange1 6476]

2 minutes ago, G650 said:

Srsly?

 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13530]

6 minutes ago, BigOrange1 said:

andrew yang is literally moving to georgia to try and help take the senate back from mcconnell. 

Not that I would but is there really anything stopping someone from moving there just to vote? It can make the difference in how the country could be ruled, whether courts are packed, whether there will be 2 new states. I don’t even know if you would even need to spend one night in Georgia to claim residency. It might take a trip or 2.