2020 Senate Elections

[Aqua Buddha 14,501]

If there's anybody I hope would lose, it'd be Lindsey.  She's an insufferable twat.  The two biggest 180's on Trump were from Lindsey Graham and Franklin Graham.  One later had thing with a pool boy and the other is obvious.  

[SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3,861]

 

pompeo gonna resign and grab that KS seat

 

[Js1 85,085]

 

[Guest Lobo]

Is there a worse way to introduce yourself at a cocktail party than to say, "Hi, I'm Mike Pompeo from Wichita."  ???

only worse one would be, "Hello, I invented Syphilis while living in Cleveland."  

[Voldemort86 2,259]

2 hours ago, Js1 said:

 

What a bimbo. Iowa probably keeps her. Those people rarely if ever actually vote someone out, it took them years to get rid of that rod Blum idiot and Steve King is still lingering around.

[Js1 85,085]

 

Will Trump jump in for Tubs over Sessions? 

[Bama Chick 28,596]

~rubs hands together~

Stay messy Alabama Republicans.

Tubs was licking some orange ass this week and I don’t imagine there are warm feelings between Sessions and Trump.

[Js1 85,085]

Btw, last night's vote analysis in Kentucky shows that Beshear won KY-6 by 9 points - a district McGrath lost by 3 in a wave year.  Even 2 of the other downballot losers for AG and SOS either barely lost it (Stumbo -1) or won it (French +7).

I don't think McGrath is a good candidate for Kentucky statewide.  I hope Rocky Adkins jumps in instead. 

[Bama Chick 28,596]

Yesssssssssss

(Not to Trump moving here but to him making the Republican primary a messy bitch fight)

[Pescado_Rojo 19,330]

How long until Don Jr or Eric (snicker) move to Alabama to run for that seat?

[Bama Chick 28,596]

Good insight from my favorite statewide political reporter -


https://www.al.com/news/2019/11/jeff-sessions-senate-bid-puts-knives-in-republican-backs.html

Jeff Sessions’ Senate bid puts knives in Republican backs

Updated 11:58 AM;Today 11:54 AM

By Kyle Whitmire | kwhitmire@al.com

This is an opinion column.

If Jeff Sessions indeed runs for his old U.S. Senate seat, the focus will be on President Trump’s Twitter feed for the inevitable puke stream of insults and invective.

But there’s something else to consider here, somewhere else to look — for something that says more about Sessions than his relationship with the president or even his record orchestrating a human rights catastrophe at our southern border.

Jeff Sessions will have screwed a lot of people, all of them Republicans.

At the top of that list is U.S. Rep. Bradley Byrne.

I haven’t hidden my disdain for Byrne. Over and over again, Byrne has proved to be a political invertebrate who will say whatever he thinks will win approval from voters. He hopes a little conspicuous Trumpism will make you forget that time he asked the president to drop off the Republican ticket. Or that time he reversed himself when he realized that wouldn’t happen. Or that time he lost what should have been an easy race for governor to a little-known Tuscaloosa dermatologist. Or that time — decades of his life, really — when he was an ardent, active Democrat.

Okay, okay, enough beating up on Byrne.

Here’s the thing: However little I think of Byrne and whatever I might have to say about him, none of that compares to the disrespect he’s about to get from Sessions.

Byrne is still a United States congressman and that’s no piddly thing. With the power of incumbency behind him, he could have run for that seat again, and again and again — and won it every time.


But he didn’t.

For once, Byrne summoned enough backbone to reach for something bigger — only to have any hope of winning snatched from him at the last second by Sessions. Had Sessions hinted six months ago that he might get into this race, if he’d passed a gentle message through a mutual friend, there’s no way Byrne gets in.

Instead, Sessions has put Byrne in a terrible bind. Byrne must now choose between staying in the Senate race or retreating to run again for his U.S. House seat.

The first option is an act of political suicide.

But if Byrne chooses the latter, he then will have done to all those other folks in that race exactly what Sessions has done to him. One last-minute betrayal begets another. (However, there’s now no guarantee one of those candidates vying for that seat can’t beat Byrne in a primary. He might still lose.)

Byrne has until 5 p.m. on Friday to make up his mind. Good luck with that, congressman.

Byrne isn’t the only person Sessions will have put on the spot. Alabama Secretary of State John Merrill likely wouldn’t have gotten in this race had he known. I doubt unemployed college football coach Tommy Tuberville would have, either. Nor Arnold Mooney.

And those other candidates — they have staff who’ve committed to them, donors who’ve written checks for them. They might, by this point, even have voters who believe in them.

All to have their ambitions disrupted by Sessions. It’s an act of betrayal so rough and so ugly, it makes you wonder whether @realdonaldtrump might have been on to something.

The only potential winner in this is Roy Moore, who had been struggling to break into third place into most recent polling. With a flattened field, Moore will have hope that his handful of strident true believers can get him into a runoff.

Thanks, Jeff.

And for what? So Sessions can rehabilitate his image after being humiliated by the president?

Forget how he deals with Trump’s Twitter attacks. If he runs, he better be ready to explain himself. He’d better have a higher motive for all those knives in all those backs. Some reason other than what now seems so apparent — his ego.

Jeff Sessions must explain why he’s doing this for Alabama, and not just for Jeff Sessions.

Doug Jones has got to be thrilled.

[Bama Chick 28,596]

Trumpkin on Trumpkin crime.

You love to see it.

[cactusflinthead 27,594]

He's got all the personality of a bowl of cold oatmeal. 

[Bama Chick 28,596]

Doug Jones got a hip social media team.

[Bama Chick 28,596]

Great ad. Y’all throw him some money.

(Lindsay Graham’s opponent)

[Js1 85,085]

https://www.ajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/ajc-poll-trump-faces-tough-election-fight-georgia/gqTRms8eLIL1TEFW2r8pKN/

2020 Senate ramifications:

Perdue approval rating: 50/32

He leads generic Democrat 35/21 but 41% say "depends on who the Democrat opponent is"

[Zonahorn 8,079]

I personally can’t wait to vote against Martha McSally again

[Js1 85,085]

4 minutes ago, Calihorn said:

I personally can’t wait to vote against Martha McSally again

I'm moving to Denver next month which means I get to vote for a Democrat Senate candidate who will actually win. 

[GopherRock 1,765]

So a year out from the 2020, I think the hierarchy of Senate races look something like this:

 

Must gets: AZ, CO, NC, ME

Live underdogs: IA, GA x2, Bama

Lottery tickets: Texas, Kentucky, South Carolina, Kansas (this could go up a tier if Kris Kobach wins the Republican primary). 

If any of the lottery tickets are sweating out photo finishes, the GOP has already lost the chamber and are in damage control mode. Also, any suggestions of tier placement are welcome. 

[Zonahorn 8,079]

24 minutes ago, Js1 said:

I'm moving to Denver next month which means I get to vote for a Democrat Senate candidate who will actually win. 

There’s almost no chance Mark fucking Kelly loses to Martha McSally

[Js1 85,085]

I think you can put Alaska either in live underdogs or lottery tickets.  State is a mess.  If they can tie Sullivan to the shitty governor, I think there's a chance?  He's only at 42/31 approval. 

[Aqua Buddha 14,501]

2 hours ago, Calihorn said:

There’s almost no chance Mark fucking Kelly loses to Martha McSally

Yeah, this.  For McSally to win, she'll have to get a large number of voters that voted against her literally last year.

[Voldemort86 2,259]

1 hour ago, Aqua Buddha said:

Yeah, this.  For McSally to win, she'll have to get a large number of voters that voted against her literally last year.

Kelly is too cool of a candidate with him being a former astronaut and the story of his wife getting shot as a member of Congress then her heroically coming back to work.

 

democrats hit a home run with that candidate and Arizona will have 2 democratic senators, unless Mcsally finds something really bad in Kelly’s past.

[Zonahorn 8,079]

2 hours ago, Voldemort86 said:

Kelly is too cool of a candidate with him being a former astronaut and the story of his wife getting shot as a member of Congress then her heroically coming back to work.

 

democrats hit a home run with that candidate and Arizona will have 2 democratic senators, unless Mcsally finds something really bad in Kelly’s past.

Now if only we could get rid of DD

[RayDog 682]

7 hours ago, GopherRock said:

So a year out from the 2020, I think the hierarchy of Senate races look something like this:

 

Must gets: AZ, CO, NC, ME

Live underdogs: IA, GA x2, Bama

Lottery tickets: Texas, Kentucky, South Carolina, Kansas (this could go up a tier if Kris Kobach wins the Republican primary). 

If any of the lottery tickets are sweating out photo finishes, the GOP has already lost the chamber and are in damage control mode. Also, any suggestions of tier placement are welcome. 

I would put Iowa on the top line with Trump more than 10 points under in Iowa in approval rating and Ernst not much better.

[Zonahorn 8,079]

1 hour ago, RayDog said:

I would put Iowa on the top line with Trump more than 10 points under in Iowa in approval rating and Ernst not much better.

It’s weird to me how much to the left Iowa has swung.

[RayDog 682]

2 hours ago, Calihorn said:

It’s weird to me how much to the left Iowa has swung.

I think the massive amount of Democratic campaigning has a lot to do with the recent shift. Well that and farmers bring hurt by Trump's policies.

[Gil Bang 25,894]

On 10/23/2019 at 5:31 AM, Aqua Buddha said:

If there's anybody I hope would lose, it'd be Lindsey.  She's an insufferable twat.  The two biggest 180's on Trump were from Lindsey Graham and Franklin Graham.  One later had thing with a pool boy and the other is obvious.  

Falwell got cornholed by the pool boy.  Not Graham.  Unless there's another pool boy. 

[SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3,861]

5 hours ago, RayDog said:

I would put Iowa on the top line with Trump more than 10 points under in Iowa in approval rating and Ernst not much better.

Any state with a senator up gets aN auto R+2 bump.  Turnout for SCOTUS related events is huge on the right. 

[Aqua Buddha 14,501]

10 hours ago, Gil Bang said:

Falwell got cornholed by the pool boy.  Not Graham.  Unless there's another pool boy. 

I get them confused.  They all look alike.

[Aqua Buddha 14,501]

10 hours ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

Any state with a senator up gets aN auto R+2 bump.  Turnout for SCOTUS related events is huge on the right. 

I remember when the GOP bemoaned judicial activism.  

[Nice Guy Eddie 13,406]

Does Doug Jones really have a chance to keep his seat from Alabama? It took stories about Roy Moore creeping around malls to pick up teenage girls in order to get a dem elected. I even wonder if Moore wouldn’t beat Jones next year given time can make creepy stories seem less creepy and having Trump at the top of the ballot.

i could even see GOP voters saying they like Jones and are genuinely ok with his performance in the Senate, and still voting for whoever has an R next to their name.

[FondrenRoad 4,378]

4 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Does Doug Jones really have a chance to keep his seat from Alabama? It took stories about Roy Moore creeping around malls to pick up teenage girls in order to get a dem elected. I even wonder if Moore wouldn’t beat Jones next year given time can make creepy stories seem less creepy and having Trump at the top of the ballot.

i could even see GOP voters saying they like Jones and are genuinely ok with his performance in the Senate, and still voting for whoever has an R next to their name.

Yes, but Jones needs super high turnout among African Americans and Bama Chicks.

The red wall in the South and rural areas is really just old white people. They always vote red, but more importantly they always vote. Every election. Trump does a little better because he also gets the 20 something guys riding around with Confederate flags to show up too.  They weren't really voters otherwise.

Even in a state like Alabama, there is probably close to a 50/50 split among people eligible to vote. It's just that the GOP "sure to vote" group is overrepresented. The only "sure to vote" group that Dems have are urban educated liberals which barely exist in Alabama. So landslide.  The rest will vote only when coaxed.

The key everywhere is to try to drive home an "always vote" message to all eligible voters. 

[Js1 85,085]

1 hour ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Does Doug Jones really have a chance to keep his seat from Alabama? It took stories about Roy Moore creeping around malls to pick up teenage girls in order to get a dem elected. I even wonder if Moore wouldn’t beat Jones next year given time can make creepy stories seem less creepy and having Trump at the top of the ballot.

i could even see GOP voters saying they like Jones and are genuinely ok with his performance in the Senate, and still voting for whoever has an R next to their name.

Sessions pissed off the MAGA people and Tuberville would piss off the Bama people. So maybe?  Maybe a write in will try to split the vote because Sessions isn’t MAGA enough. 

[Voldemort86 2,259]

55 minutes ago, FondrenRoad said:

Yes, but Jones needs super high turnout among African Americans and Bama Chicks.

The red wall in the South and rural areas is really just old white people. They always vote red, but more importantly they always vote. Every election. Trump does a little better because he also gets the 20 something guys riding around with Confederate flags to show up too.  They weren't really voters otherwise.

Even in a state like Alabama, there is probably close to a 50/50 split among people eligible to vote. It's just that the GOP "sure to vote" group is overrepresented. The only "sure to vote" group that Dems have are urban educated liberals which barely exist in Alabama. So landslide.  The rest will vote only when coaxed.

The key everywhere is to try to drive home an "always vote" message to all eligible voters. 

Don’t forget a lot of the wives of men in southern states “do what they’re told” and vote republican! Against their self interests for sure.

 

probably what happens is the husband talks to his wife on the way to the polls in their beat up truck with a cracked headlight “ you’re not really gonna cancel my vote out are you honey? It’s pointless to go vote at all if we vote opposite.”

Edited November 14, 2019 by Voldemort86

[gmr548 16,481]

Does Doug Jones really have a chance to keep his seat from Alabama? It took stories about Roy Moore creeping around malls to pick up teenage girls in order to get a dem elected. I even wonder if Moore wouldn’t beat Jones next year given time can make creepy stories seem less creepy and having Trump at the top of the ballot.

i could even see GOP voters saying they like Jones and are genuinely ok with his performance in the Senate, and still voting for whoever has an R next to their name.

 

I have no idea honestly but the Rs sure are trying to give him one. Still, if I had to bet I'd take Sessions, comfortably.

 

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk

 

 

 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13,406]

34 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

 

I have no idea honestly but the Rs sure are trying to give him one. Still, if I had to bet I'd take Sessions, comfortably.

 

I agree that Jones is set up against dream candidates:  Sessions (Trump hates him), Tuberville (Bama fans hate him) and Moore. I know there are other R candidates but I wonder if they will get lost in the mix.

[SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3,861]

4 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I agree that Jones is set up against dream candidates:  Sessions (Trump hates him), Tuberville (Bama fans hate him) and Moore (Teens love him). I know there are other R candidates but I wonder if they will get lost in the mix.

fify

[GopherRock 1,765]

17 hours ago, RayDog said:

I would put Iowa on the top line with Trump more than 10 points under in Iowa in approval rating and Ernst not much better.

I thought about putting Iowa on the top tier. I held off for a couple of reasons:

- Even after getting beat up for two harvests by the trade war, most farmers I know are still firmly dug into MAGA. 

- Inevitably, the whispers will go around the small-town social circles that (insert Democrat candidate here) is a baby killer. Or will take your guns away. And you better not vote for a dirty Dem. Yes it sounds ludicrous, but this is a thing. 

Basically, I'll believe Iowa flipping when I see it, but I'd love to be wong. 

[Zonahorn 8,079]

5 minutes ago, GopherRock said:

I thought about putting Iowa on the top tier. I held off for a couple of reasons:

- Even after getting beat up for two harvests by the trade war, most farmers I know are still firmly dug into MAGA. 

- Inevitably, the whispers will go around the small-town social circles that (insert Democrat candidate here) is a baby killer. Or will take your guns away. And you better not vote for a dirty Dem. Yes it sounds ludicrous, but this is a thing. 

Basically, I'll believe Iowa flipping when I see it, but I'd love to be wong. 

Iowa flipped in 2018

[Bama Chick 28,596]

Yes, Jones has a chance.

The Republicans are actually acting like Democrats in this case - too many people running and they’re all messy bitches.

The Sessions mess, jumping in late and getting slammed by Trumpkins.

Tuberville trying to lick Trump’s crack at every opportunity but 65% of the state hates him.

Bradley Byrne gave up his safe congressional seat and wouldn’t have jumped in the senate race if he knew Sessions was going to run but he can’t drop out and retreat to his congressional seat because his protégé is running.

John Merrill, current Secretary of State, also wouldn’t have run if he knew Sessions was running but he’s stuck too. (This is the guy the Republicans should be backing - he’s one of the few old school “normal” Republicans left but that’s an actual negative in Alabama Republican politics now.)

And then you have Ole Roy. Who could repeat what happened in the special election - the normie candidates split the vote and the 35% of the primary voters who are disciples of Moore enable him to steal the nomination.

Doug Jones couldn’t have asked for a better situation on the Republican side.

The Republican primary is gonna be messy as fuck and I am here for it.

Now y’all throw some coin Doug’s way please.


https://secure.actblue.com/donate/jones-homepage1

This is Bama Chick, Surly’s Alabama correspondent signing off.

[Bateshorn 9,897]

messy bitches is one of my favorite new phrases.

[High Plains Drifter 10,970]

41 minutes ago, Bama Chick said:

The Sessions mess, jumping in late and getting slammed by Trumpkins.



 

 

Is Sessions just running as a "fuck you" to DOTARD, regardless of any chance of winning? Southern pride and all that.

 

[Voldemort86 2,259]

1 hour ago, Bama Chick said:

Yes, Jones has a chance.

The Republicans are actually acting like Democrats in this case - too many people running and they’re all messy bitches.

The Sessions mess, jumping in late and getting slammed by Trumpkins.

Tuberville trying to lick Trump’s crack at every opportunity but 65% of the state hates him.

Bradley Byrne gave up his safe congressional seat and wouldn’t have jumped in the senate race if he knew Sessions was going to run but he can’t drop out and retreat to his congressional seat because his protégé is running.

John Merrill, current Secretary of State, also wouldn’t have run if he knew Sessions was running but he’s stuck too. (This is the guy the Republicans should be backing - he’s one of the few old school “normal” Republicans left but that’s an actual negative in Alabama Republican politics now.)

And then you have Ole Roy. Who could repeat what happened in the special election - the normie candidates split the vote and the 35% of the primary voters who are disciples of Moore enable him to steal the nomination.

Doug Jones couldn’t have asked for a better situation on the Republican side.

The Republican primary is gonna be messy as fuck and I am here for it.

Now y’all throw some coin Doug’s way please.


https://secure.actblue.com/donate/jones-homepage1

This is Bama Chick, Surly’s Alabama correspondent signing off.

Tell all of the democrats you know to cross over and vote for Roy Moore in the primary. That guy is a win / win for democrats. If he loses, Doug Jones keeps the seat. If he beats Jones, he will be McConnell’s headache for the next 6 years and a big distraction for them.

[JimmyJames 12,271]

1 hour ago, Bama Chick said:

Yes, Jones has a chance.

The Republicans are actually acting like Democrats in this case - too many people running and they’re all messy bitches.

The Sessions mess, jumping in late and getting slammed by Trumpkins.

Tuberville trying to lick Trump’s crack at every opportunity but 65% of the state hates him.

Bradley Byrne gave up his safe congressional seat and wouldn’t have jumped in the senate race if he knew Sessions was going to run but he can’t drop out and retreat to his congressional seat because his protégé is running.

John Merrill, current Secretary of State, also wouldn’t have run if he knew Sessions was running but he’s stuck too. (This is the guy the Republicans should be backing - he’s one of the few old school “normal” Republicans left but that’s an actual negative in Alabama Republican politics now.)

And then you have Ole Roy. Who could repeat what happened in the special election - the normie candidates split the vote and the 35% of the primary voters who are disciples of Moore enable him to steal the nomination.

Doug Jones couldn’t have asked for a better situation on the Republican side.

The Republican primary is gonna be messy as fuck and I am here for it.

Now y’all throw some coin Doug’s way please.


https://secure.actblue.com/donate/jones-homepage1

This is Bama Chick, Surly’s Alabama correspondent signing off.

Ya see? How come we can’t have this type of good fortune happen to us  in Texas? We need a Texas version of Roy Moore along with Craig James, Jackie sherrill and Barry Switzer to run in the senate republican primary. 

[GopherRock 1,765]

2 hours ago, Calihorn said:

Iowa flipped in 2018

?

Republicans in Iowa won every statewide race for which they put up a candidate, and kept control of both chambers of their Legislature. I wouldn't call that flipping. 

[SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3,861]

15 minutes ago, GopherRock said:

?

Republicans in Iowa won every statewide race for which they put up a candidate, and kept control of both chambers of their Legislature. I wouldn't call that flipping. 

it's arguable.  the D congressmen got more votes than the R statewide.  so maybe.  

[Post Oak 20,182]

My better half went to a volunteer training event in Waco this week.  

She said the the Waco Democratic Party or whoever was holding the event couldn't believe the turnout.

They said that most years they have just a handful of people there but this week they had over 50.  

This event was to train volunteer trainers, not just volunteers so its not exactly lining up with what she wants to do but it's encouraging to see the turn out.  She / we will be working to get people to register , maybe knocking on doors, and then to polling stations when the time comes.  

I doubt it makes much of a difference this cycle but maybe some sustained persistence helps in 4 years. 

[Voldemort86 2,259]

1 hour ago, Post Oak said:

My better half went to a volunteer training event in Waco this week.  

She said the the Waco Democratic Party or whoever was holding the event couldn't believe the turnout.

They said that most years they have just a handful of people there but this week they had over 50.  

This event was to train volunteer trainers, not just volunteers so its not exactly lining up with what she wants to do but it's encouraging to see the turn out.  She / we will be working to get people to register , maybe knocking on doors, and then to polling stations when the time comes.  

I doubt it makes much of a difference this cycle but maybe some sustained persistence helps in 4 years. 

I always wonder about the people who knock on doors. Do you think they get cussed out and threatened with violence by the radical uneducated MAGA cult?

[Zonahorn 8,079]

2 hours ago, GopherRock said:

?

Republicans in Iowa won every statewide race for which they put up a candidate, and kept control of both chambers of their Legislature. I wouldn't call that flipping. 

I... looked primarily at the house results where democrats won several seats and applied to the rest of the results. My bad