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2020 Senate Elections

Patrick Bateman

By Patrick Bateman
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RayDog

RayDog 682

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Just looking at changes due to voter deaths and new voters, over 2.8 million Americans die a year, for about 11.3 million over 4 years. Given the high voter rates among elderly that is about 8 million voters. And given the advantage to Republicans among the elderly, Trump losses about 5 million voters to about 3 million Clinton voters lost, for a net loss of ~2 million to Trump. 

I expect 140+ million votes in 2020 versus ~129 million in 2016, so there will be ~19 million people who did not vote in 2016 mostly coming from millennials and Gen Z.  If they go 60/40 to Democrats that is an advantage of 3.8 million votes, for a total shift of 5.8 million votes. That predicts the Democratic presidential candidate will win by more than 8 million votes in the popular vote. It could be a 4% shift from 2016.

Looking at Trump's winning percentage in the closest states, death and replacement demographics alone should swing the ones through North Carolina. If Trump loses Arizona and North Carolina, as I predict, then McSally and Tillis lose too, as I doubt they can win if Trump loses. Iowa swung by over 15% from 2012 to 2016 and I think they will swing back since Trump's approval is more than ten points under water there. Joni Ernst  will not win in Iowa if Trump loses Iowa.

Michigan -0.2% (2012 to 2016 -9.7%)
Pennsylvania -0.7% (2012 to 2016 -6.1%)
Wisconsin -0.8% (2012 to 2016 -7.7%)
Florida -1.2%  (2012 to 2016 -2.1%)
Arizona -3.5% (2012 to 2016 +5.6%)
North Carolina -3.7% (2012 to 2016 -1.7%)
Georgia -5.1% (2012 to 2016 +2.7%)
Ohio -8.1% (2012 to 2016 -11.1%)
Texas -9% (2012 to 2016 +6.8%)
Iowa -9.5% (2012 to 2016 -15.3%) 

Texas, Arizona, and Georgia all swung toward the Democrats even in a Trump populist wave year, so I firmly think Trump will lose Arizona given that trend. Adding the two trends together Georgia and Texas are also on the verge of flipping. Texas Democrats have not put up any great Senate candidates, so I think Cornyn can outperform Trump in Texas and keep his seat. I think there is a good chance of getting the open seat in Georgia if Trump loses there, but it is too close to call at this point.

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gmr548

gmr548 16491

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, RayDog said:

Just looking at changes due to voter deaths and new voters, over 2.8 million Americans die a year, for about 11.3 million over 4 years. Given the high voter rates among elderly that is about 8 million voters. And given the advantage to Republicans among the elderly, Trump losses about 5 million voters to about 3 million Clinton voters lost, for a net loss of ~2 million to Trump. 

I expect 140+ million votes in 2020 versus ~129 million in 2016, so there will be ~19 million people who did not vote in 2016 mostly coming from millennials and Gen Z.  If they go 60/40 to Democrats that is an advantage of 3.8 million votes, for a total shift of 5.8 million votes. That predicts the Democratic presidential candidate will win by more than 8 million votes in the popular vote. It could be a 4% shift from 2016.

Looking at Trump's winning percentage in the closest states, death and replacement demographics alone should swing the ones through North Carolina. If Trump loses Arizona and North Carolina, as I predict, then McSally and Tillis lose too, as I doubt they can win if Trump loses. Iowa swung by over 15% from 2012 to 2016 and I think they will swing back since Trump's approval is more than ten points under water there. Joni Ernst  will not win in Iowa if Trump loses Iowa.

Michigan -0.2% (2012 to 2016 -9.7%)
Pennsylvania -0.7% (2012 to 2016 -6.1%)
Wisconsin -0.8% (2012 to 2016 -7.7%)
Florida -1.2%  (2012 to 2016 -2.1%)
Arizona -3.5% (2012 to 2016 +5.6%)
North Carolina -3.7% (2012 to 2016 -1.7%)
Georgia -5.1% (2012 to 2016 +2.7%)
Ohio -8.1% (2012 to 2016 -11.1%)
Texas -9% (2012 to 2016 +6.8%)
Iowa -9.5% (2012 to 2016 -15.3%) 

Texas, Arizona, and Georgia all swung toward the Democrats even in a Trump populist wave year, so I firmly think Trump will lose Arizona given that trend. Adding the two trends together Georgia and Texas are also on the verge of flipping. Texas Democrats have not put up any great Senate candidates, so I think Cornyn can outperform Trump in Texas and keep his seat. I think there is a good chance of getting the open seat in Georgia if Trump loses there, but it is too close to call at this point.

Remember, this is the guy who was quite confidently projecting a Beto win using the same logic. Sushihorn of the CR.

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gmr548

gmr548 16491

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4 hours ago, Ghost of LL said:

Maine and North Carolina area step below Arizona and Colorado for me.

Arizona and Colorado are on a "that would really surprise me if the Democrats lost" level for me.

Maine and North Carolina are on a "I think it's somewhat more-likely-than-not that the Democrats win" level.  Within that level, Maine has a higher likelihood of flipping than North Carolina.

And then there the Iowa and Kansas-with-Korbach level, which is a "it's probably less-likely-than-not that the Democrats win, but it definitely wouldn't surprise me if it were to happen." 

Colorado is on a level of its own. That's a solid blue state now and the margin is only widening. Absent something along the lines of a scandal or a hyper-local policy issue, if the Ds lose that, it will be a disasterous 2020 election night for them. It's borderline impossible to fathom that much of a Republican surge from the environment we're in right now.

It is hard for me to call AZ a likely pickup because of how closely tied presidential and senate results have become. I'd have more confidence in a midterm but Trump is going to bring some cultists out to vote. ME should be a flip - hard to see a R winning outright there in a presidential year, especially with an unpopular R president, but incumbents are hard to get rid of. NC, same story as AZ but the state is a few percentage points more to the right. The other two I'd pretty much need to see to believe, though Iowa is weird about this stuff sometimes.

Overall: CO (basically a lock)>> ME, AZ > NC > IA > KS

 

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RayDog

RayDog 682

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17 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

Remember, this is the guy who was quite confidently projecting a Beto win using the same logic. Sushihorn of the CR.

I did before the Kavanaugh hearings but not afterward, since the voter participation rate for Republicans changed.

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Js1

Js1 85095

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10 hours ago, RayDog said:

I did before the Kavanaugh hearings but not afterward, since the voter participation rate for Republicans changed.

This is true. I think a lot of the D incumbents lost or ended up in closer races because of this. Same with my Ted won. 

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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

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On 1/16/2020 at 9:31 AM, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Liz Cheney backs out of running for the senate out of fear of losing:  https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/16/politics/liz-cheney-no-senate-campaign/index.html

Wyoming will still be deep red, and Cheney will still be the House Rep but this is a major defeat for her. 

This sucks.

 

we might have to put up with her dumb ass as speaker of the house someday.

 

hopefully democrats can dominate the house in the 20’s decade like the repubs just dominated this decade. Don’t give her much opportunity to lead. She would suck at it. 

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SuingToGetAMessageBoard?

SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3861

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3 minutes ago, FondrenRoad said:

Trump's +14 is definitely an Alabama poll. 

Then again, maybe they do like Jones. They'll just like his crook GOP opponent more.

one thing i've been turning over in my head is that the SEC part of the country has more of a bunker mentality than the rest of the US, which ties to the unfailing loyalty to whatever is 'theirs,' despite it crumbling all around them.  don't really know.  still trying to think through it.  but anyway, maybe now jones is one of 'theirs', so he gets defending.  he's sort of like diamond and silk or something to them, needed to be held up as 'one of the good ones' to show that they are not narrow minded.

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Js1

Js1 85095

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2 hours ago, FondrenRoad said:

Is Jones really looking that favorable to voters in Alabama?  That can't be right. 

McCaskill, Heitkamp, etc were even or near positive too. They like him. But he’s a Dem so he’ll lose 

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13409

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On 1/16/2020 at 5:56 PM, Js1 said:

5 least popular senators are the best pickup opportunities for Dems. 

People in Michigan still have no idea who GaryJerryBarryLarry Peters is 

 

Joni Ernst is an interesting case of that she must really have no idea what to do. She's in the senate leadership but she and especially Trump are unpopular in Iowa. -5 isn't impossible to overcome but she doesn't do herself any favors by falling into lockstep with McConnell and Trump. If McConnell really wanted to help her, he would let her be more ambiguous about this trial. Let her look as non-partisan instead of just falling the line.

 

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Aqua Buddha

Aqua Buddha 14501

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3 hours ago, Js1 said:

This is going to clear the field in the Dem portion of the jungle primary for the Georgia special Senate election. He’s supposed to be endorsed by Abrams soon 

 

With Collins in the race and this being a jungle primary format, GA could be a Dem pickup.  Warnock and Collins could easily be the top two and then have a run off in Dec, where Warnock wins because of how wildly unlikeable Collins is.

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washparkhorn

washparkhorn 9935

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In Colorado, Hickenlooper is not a shoe-in for the Democratic nomination. Andrew Romanoff  @Romanoff2020 and Trish Zornio @trish_zornio are well liked. Hickenlooper has gone deep with O&G interests. His suing of a town that banned fracking does not sit well "home-rule" advocates who believe local governments decide what happens in their communities. 

https://theintercept.com/2020/01/30/john-hickenlooper-senate-colorado/

He has a Biden hands problem as well - 

https://twitter.com/sunrisemvmt/status/1221906063936630785

 

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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

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2 hours ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

one thing i've been turning over in my head is that the SEC part of the country has more of a bunker mentality than the rest of the US, which ties to the unfailing loyalty to whatever is 'theirs,' despite it crumbling all around them.  don't really know.  still trying to think through it.  but anyway, maybe now jones is one of 'theirs', so he gets defending.  he's sort of like diamond and silk or something to them, needed to be held up as 'one of the good ones' to show that they are not narrow minded.

It’s no coincidence that they’re all old confederacy civil war states. They held on bitterly while things literally crumbled around them.

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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

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1 hour ago, Aqua Buddha said:

With Collins in the race and this being a jungle primary format, GA could be a Dem pickup.  Warnock and Collins could easily be the top two and then have a run off in Dec, where Warnock wins because of how wildly unlikeable Collins is.

Collins embarasses the people of Georgia every single time he appears on Fox News. 

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13409

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Posted (edited)

Not sure where to post this, but good 3 part podcast on the the Alabama Democratic Party and problems over the years.  There was some crazy bylaw that basically allowed one person to have a stranglehold of power. The guy sounds like a true hero for civil rights but the state party became his personal fiefdom over the years. It was to a point that the national party couldn't even get the Alabama party to return a phone call.

The state party did next to zero fundraising, and if a candidate wanted their help, there were some questionable (alleged) practices going on.

I won't ruin the outcome, if you're unaware, but there are still issues which present challenges for candidates, including Sen. Doug Jones, to get re-elected.

Part 1 of the podcast: https://gimletmedia.com/shows/reply-all/llhd33/152-the-real-enemy-part-1

 

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Bama Chick

Bama Chick 28596

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Not sure where to post this, but good 3 part podcast on the the Alabama Democratic Party and problems over the years.  There was some crazy bylaw that basically allowed one person to have a stranglehold of power. The guy sounds like a true hero for civil rights but the state party became his personal fiefdom over the years. It was to a point that the national party couldn't even get the Alabama party to return a phone call.
The state party did next to zero fundraising, and if a candidate wanted their help, there were some questionable (alleged) practices going on.
I won't ruin the outcome, if you're unaware, but there are still issues which present challenges for candidates, including Sen. Doug Jones, to get re-elected.
Part 1 of the podcast: https://gimletmedia.com/shows/reply-all/llhd33/152-the-real-enemy-part-1
 


Y’all have no idea of how epic a shitshow this has been.

Nancy Worley is a corrupt wildebeest who threatened to bring a gun and shoot anyone who dared challenge her and Joe Reed was once a serious civil rights leader who is now a greedy corrupt Boss Tweed figure.

Here’s some good videos from some journalists who work for al.com and Reckon Alabama - their group is aptly named “War On Dumb”.







Their Twitter accounts are @reckonalabama and @warondumb if you want to follow - they post about this mess a lot.

Also, Doug Jones is against Worley and Reed and has been helping the new leadership coup. They actively worked to undermine him when he ran against Roy Moore because he didn’t kiss their rings and called out their corruption.

TL;DR - As if Democrats didn’t already have a tough hill to climb in Alabama, we’ve got the literal worst state level Democratic Party in the country.
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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13409

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The podcasts mention that several local party members are also not happy with Doug Jones because his side is taking the stance of "trust us" just the Reed/Worley.

I did laugh about how the Dem party office is almost always closed, and the only working number was Worley who refused to answer and she left her voicemail box full.  And she fully admitted to the reporter that she used this tactic to not talk to people.

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Bama Chick

Bama Chick 28596

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Inject this into my veins




Alabama Republican primary rules state if one candidate doesn’t receive a majority of the votes then there will be a runoff.

In a Sessions vs. Tuberville runoff, it’s a toss-up but there’s a not insignificant amount of Trumpkins who are still mad at Sessions for lack of fealty to Trump which could swing to supporting Tuberville.

And Bradley Byrne and Sessions have been going at each other. Byrne is PISSED that Sessions jumped in and has said publicly that Sessions already had his turn and this race was supposed to be his turn. So once he’s eliminated, I don’t see him encouraging his 17% of voters to go with Sessions.

Give me Tommy Fucking Tuberville as the Republican candidate against Doug Jones please!

That’s his best shot outside of Ole Roy winning the Republican primary again.

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Ghost of LL

Ghost of LL 15477

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13 hours ago, Pasken said:

Just doesn’t seem to be anything that good about her. 

Apart from the fact that she's not John fucking Cornyn, you mean?

Irrespective of whether she shares my preferred policy positions on every issue, there are three things that make her more electable than her opponents: (1) she's a moderate (sorry, but Tzintzun-Ramirez is not getting elected in Texas even when Texas does finally turn blue); (2) she's a veteran (yeah, it matters in a country that has deified our military "heroes"); and (3) she can raise money (and we all know that fucking matters).

If I had my druthers, I might vote for Royce West.  But Royce wouldn't have a prayer of beating Cornyn.  So there's no point in that.

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Pasken

Pasken 1309

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12 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

Apart from the fact that she's not John fucking Cornyn, you mean?

Irrespective of whether she shares my preferred policy positions on every issue, there are three things that make her more electable than her opponents: (1) she's a moderate (sorry, but Tzintzun-Ramirez is not getting elected in Texas even when Texas does finally turn blue); (2) she's a veteran (yeah, it matters in a country that has deified our military "heroes"); and (3) she can raise money (and we all know that fucking matters).

If I had my druthers, I might vote for Royce West.  But Royce wouldn't have a prayer of beating Cornyn.  So there's no point in that.

It just seems like she already made her play on being a moderate veteran and she lost. Why is it going to work now?

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GSU&UT

GSU&UT 1798

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12 hours ago, Bama Chick said:

Inject this into my veins

 

 


Alabama Republican primary rules state if one candidate doesn’t receive a majority of the votes then there will be a runoff.

In a Sessions vs. Tuberville runoff, it’s a toss-up but there’s a not insignificant amount of Trumpkins who are still mad at Sessions for lack of fealty to Trump which could swing to supporting Tuberville.

And Bradley Byrne and Sessions have been going at each other. Byrne is PISSED that Sessions jumped in and has said publicly that Sessions already had his turn and this race was supposed to be his turn. So once he’s eliminated, I don’t see him encouraging his 17% of voters to go with Sessions.

Give me Tommy Fucking Tuberville as the Republican candidate against Doug Jones please!

That’s his best shot outside of Ole Roy winning the Republican primary again.
 

 

Auburn_Tuberville_chips.gif?resize=320,2

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Ghost of LL

Ghost of LL 15477

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Posted (edited)
10 minutes ago, Pasken said:

It just seems like she already made her play on being a moderate veteran and she lost. Why is it going to work now?

She lost in 2018 by 3 points in a district that Trump won by 13 in 2016.

Trump won Texas by 9.  If she gains 10 points over Trump's performance in 2016 as she did in TX31, she wins.

Of course, there are a whole lot of problems with that reasoning.*  But it reflects that her pitch does have the ability to significantly cut into the Republican vote in this state.  Texas 31 is pretty damned representative of the parts of the state where a Democrat would have to be competitive to win statewide.  If she can win suburban districts like Williamson County while at the same time limiting her loss margin in smaller towns like those in Bell County, then she has a shot.  And that's exactly what she did in 2018.

 

* One of the issues with that reasoning is that it is hard to compare midterms with presidential elections.  But in this case, I think that issue is less significant.  There were actually more voters in 2018 than in 2016.  Turnout was slightly lower, owing to population growth.  But it was not a significant difference in percentage.

Edited by Ghost of LL
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SuingToGetAMessageBoard?

SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3861

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1 minute ago, Ghost of LL said:

If she can win suburban districts like Williamson County while at the same time limiting her loss margin in smaller towns like those in Bell County, then she has a shot.  And that's exactly what she did in 2018.

Beto's run made me think rural Texas is just unconvinceable.  He went to every county, shook more hands than anyone, held town halls in every Vega Mineola Bangs there is, and improved by 1% over Hillary's numbers.

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