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2020 Senate Elections

Patrick Bateman

By Patrick Bateman
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Ghost of LL

Ghost of LL 15698

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

Beto's run made me think rural Texas is just unconvinceable.  He went to every county, shook more hands than anyone, held town halls in every Vega Mineola Bangs there is, and improved by 1% over Hillary's numbers.

Oh, fuck 'em.  Texas is a suburban state.  You win and you lose in the suburbs.

You still have to go out to the rural areas and shake hands.  But that's not to convince anybody out there to vote for you.  It's to convince the suburbanites that you're not saying "fuck 'em."  Because a whole lot of those suburbanites came from rural areas and/or still have family there.

But fuck 'em.

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Zonahorn

Zonahorn 8079

Posted
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3 minutes ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

Beto's run made me think rural Texas is just unconvinceable.  He went to every county, shook more hands than anyone, held town halls in every Vega Mineola Bangs there is, and improved by 1% over Hillary's numbers.

It was depressing as fuck to see Beto get like 10% in all those little counties he visited

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Aqua Buddha

Aqua Buddha 14806

Posted
Posted
54 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

Oh, fuck 'em.  Texas is a suburban state.  You win and you lose in the suburbs.

You still have to go out to the rural areas and shake hands.  But that's not to convince anybody out there to vote for you.  It's to convince the suburbanites that you're not saying "fuck 'em."  Because a whole lot of those suburbanites came from rural areas and/or still have family there.

But fuck 'em.

tumblr_ljx1c6bxxw1qculfy.jpg

 

On all fronts.  Hit the greater Houston area and the I-35 corridor.  Fuck East and West Texas.  Those areas are losing share fast.

To your point, though, half of the suburban/exurban crowd are from a small town or pretend to want to move back to one in their F-350 Diesel.  Make it look like you don't hate them.

 

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Bateshorn

Bateshorn 9991

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Ghost of LL said:

Oh, fuck 'em.  Texas is a suburban state.  You win and you lose in the suburbs.

You still have to go out to the rural areas and shake hands.  But that's not to convince anybody out there to vote for you.  It's to convince the suburbanites that you're not saying "fuck 'em."  Because a whole lot of those suburbanites came from rural areas and/or still have family there.

But fuck 'em.

This is an incredible astute analysis of North Carolina as well.  The walking around the rural parts, talking hayseed is so the former GOP suburb voters feel better on election day fucking over their rural relatives.

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Pasken

Pasken 1312

Posted
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5 hours ago, Ghost of LL said:

She lost in 2018 by 3 points in a district that Trump won by 13 in 2016.

Trump won Texas by 9.  If she gains 10 points over Trump's performance in 2016 as she did in TX31, she wins.

Of course, there are a whole lot of problems with that reasoning.*  But it reflects that her pitch does have the ability to significantly cut into the Republican vote in this state.  Texas 31 is pretty damned representative of the parts of the state where a Democrat would have to be competitive to win statewide.  If she can win suburban districts like Williamson County while at the same time limiting her loss margin in smaller towns like those in Bell County, then she has a shot.  And that's exactly what she did in 2018.

 

* One of the issues with that reasoning is that it is hard to compare midterms with presidential elections.  But in this case, I think that issue is less significant.  There were actually more voters in 2018 than in 2016.  Turnout was slightly lower, owing to population growth.  But it was not a significant difference in percentage.

I hope so. So assume MJ wins the primary and runoff, what would you guess is the final percentages against Cornyn? If anyone is curious, Cornyn won in 2014 with 61.6% of the vote in a very low turnout midterm election. 

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Ghost of LL

Ghost of LL 15698

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7 minutes ago, Js1 said:

55-56%. 60% if MJ implodes.  I think Cornyn will outrun Trump by 2-3% in his worst case scenario. 

I think that's on the high side.  I would say Cornyn wins somewhere in the neighborhood of 53-46.

I suspect the prediction that he runs 2-3 points ahead of Trump is about right.  So barring a real breakthrough or collapse, we're probably looking at a 6-7 point loss.

 

I do think, however, that Hegar's ability to raise money gives this the potential to be a surprise.

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RayDog

RayDog 682

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Posted

Based on the 2017 exit polling, the under 45 group in Alabama voted 60-38 for Jones and made up 35% of the sample. That group and new younger voters could make up over 40% of voters this time. White women, however, voted 63-31 for Moore, which is a disappointment. 

WP - Alabama Exit Poll

As the younger generations move toward having 50% of the vote, Alabama should start becoming competitive. Or, if white women move closer to a 50/50 split, as suburban and college women vote for more Democrats. Things could get interesting in 2024 or 2028, and the same could be said for other Southern states with similar demographics. Of course Georgia is in the lead with this trend, but they are not alone.

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Js1

Js1 87185

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Posted
2 hours ago, Calihorn said:

Be sure to choke on a cock on the way out Susan

 

When asked to comment, Collins was “very concerned” as she headed to her next fundraiser with McConnell to “furrow her brow” at these numbers. “I hope the voters of my state have learned their lesson” 

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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

Posted
Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, bonnieblue said:

Anyone have a decent rundown on the dem candidates for the TX senate race? Is MJ the go-to here?

I don’t see a candidate as liberal as Ramirez ever winning in Texas. You’d probably be throwing your vote out by voting for her.

Edited by Voldemort86
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SuingToGetAMessageBoard?

SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3873

Posted
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18 minutes ago, Calihorn said:

 

Real smart of Ducey to pick the lady who already lost a senate race as a replacement.

it had a 'it's her turn' vibe to the appointment.  not great.

 

22 hours ago, Calihorn said:

Be sure to choke on a cock on the way out Susan

 

I honestly can't believe it is this close.

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Zonahorn

Zonahorn 8079

Posted
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14 minutes ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

it had a 'it's her turn' vibe to the appointment.  not great.

 

I honestly can't believe it is this close.

It did, the Republicans fucked themselves out of two Senate seats because Martha wanted to be a Senator so badly. LMAO

 

Maine is weird.

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RayDog

RayDog 682

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Posted

Maine is the oldest state by far averaging 44.7 years old. So lots of Boomer and older voters are calling the shots.

Interestingly the 10 oldest states are predominantly Democratic while the 10 youngest states are predominantly Republican. At least they will be until the 45 and younger voters become the 50 and younger voters.

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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

it had a 'it's her turn' vibe to the appointment.  not great.

 

I honestly can't believe it is this close.

Maine is a weird state, but I think ranked choice voting helps the Democrats more than republicans there. They won a house seat in 2018 because of it. For some reason, lots of New England folks like to vote 3rd party, there are several independents up there including Bernie and king. When push comes to shove tho, these independents almost always support democrats over republicans tho.

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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

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1 hour ago, Bookman said:

Met MJ Hegar last night. Can't say I agree with her on all the issues, but she is intelligent and strong, and she has a plan to beat John Cornyn.

Also a UT grad (bachelor and MBA) to boot.

She has my vote.

shes the only viable candidate on the democrat side. Her fundraising is much better than everyone else’s. You need money in Texas to compete.

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Texas73

Texas73 422

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Posted
On 2/16/2020 at 1:43 PM, tx 3 putt said:

The voter rolls on the I35 corridor is booming. You campaign houston, I35 and the border that’s enough to win this state. 

I wish it were enough. Winning Bexar and Harris 54-42 isn't enough with rural counties going 20-80.  Too many smaller counties so the Republican victories add up and the totals put Republicans in. 

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13731

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Posted
3 minutes ago, Texas73 said:

I wish it were enough. Winning Bexar and Harris 54-42 isn't enough with rural counties going 20-80.  Too many smaller counties so the Republican victories add up and the totals put Republicans in. 

I know too many suburbanites (or those who are suburbanites at heart) who just identify with what they think the GOP is. They can move across the aisle to vote against a Trump but they will quickly run back to vote GOP every time.  Or I hear the negative Dem argument that Dems want to raise minimum wages high and tax me, which is basically saying "Dems want to raise up others by pushing me down."

It also doesn't help with suburban voters when Bernie basically says that he's going to take away your health insurance. I know he doesn't say those exact words, but that is what people hear.

I'm not saying the above is accurate in terms of what happens if Texas turns blue or whatever, but those sentiments are reasons why Texas is most likely not turning blue now.

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Bateshorn

Bateshorn 9991

Posted
Posted (edited)
20 hours ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

it had a 'it's her turn' vibe to the appointment.  not great.

 

I honestly can't believe it is this close.

Susan has won statewide 4 times.  She's basically an institution at this point.  A lot of people who have pulled the lever for her in the past are going to have to vote against her.  That's not an easy psychology to overcome. 

She crushed, CRUSHED the popular congressman from the 1st CD in 2008 in a banner year for Democrats.  She had the highest approval ratings in the entire country for any widely elected politician 5 years ago.  I mean, it's not like she's a Claire McCaskill whose been getting by the skin of her teeth. 

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Js1

Js1 87185

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7 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

Susan has won statewide 4 times.  She's basically an institution at this point.  A lot of people who have pulled the lever for her in the past are going to have to vote against her.  That's not an easy psychology to overcome. 

She crushed, CRUSHED the popular congressman from the 1st CD in 2008 in a banner year for Democrats.  She had the highest approval ratings in the entire country for any widely elected politician 5 years ago.  I mean, it's not like she's a Claire McCaskill whose been getting by the skin of her teeth. 

She went from one of the most popular to the LEAST popular in roughly a cycle.

She went from 68% in 2014 to now polling in the mid-40s. 

She's toast.  Especially with RCV, as third party voters who typically would vote Democrat can vote Gideon #2 and have their vote reallocated.

I do not see a scenario where Collins hits 50%+1 in the first round.   All her crossover support is gone - mid-40s is basically a GOP standard in Maine.  43.2% was what the R candidate for governor got last cycle.  Trump only hit 44.87% in Maine in 2016.  She's polling in the mid-40s.

I think she got by for a long time when she served with Olympia Snowe (an actual moderate).  Most people were probably like "oh, the female moderate Senator? Must be Collins." 

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Bateshorn

Bateshorn 9991

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10 minutes ago, Js1 said:

She went from one of the most popular to the LEAST popular in roughly a cycle.

She went from 68% in 2014 to now polling in the mid-40s. 

She's toast.  Especially with RCV, as third party voters who typically would vote Democrat can vote Gideon #2 and have their vote reallocated.

I do not see a scenario where Collins hits 50%+1 in the first round.   All her crossover support is gone - mid-40s is basically a GOP standard in Maine.  43.2% was what the R candidate for governor got last cycle.  Trump only hit 44.87% in Maine in 2016.  She's polling in the mid-40s.

I think she got by for a long time when she served with Olympia Snowe (an actual moderate).  Most people were probably like "oh, the female moderate Senator? Must be Collins." 

I'm not arguing any of that.  I'm just saying:  She's going to lose due to people who have supported her multiple times voting against her. 

Also, that's an oversimplification of Maine politics re: Snowe.   Collins has had to start worrying about her right flank since the emergence of LePage.

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13731

Posted
Posted
20 minutes ago, kevwun said:

Bernie is not going to turn any state blue if he's on the ticket.  The Republican attack ads will write themselves and they will work.

I'm in this camp as well. I'm not saying Bernie can't win but that would be more of Trump losing. And with that scenario, bernie has short zero coat tails other than he's the Dem nominee.

 

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Bateshorn

Bateshorn 9991

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Posted
2 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I'm in this camp as well. I'm not saying Bernie can't win but that would be more of Trump losing. And with that scenario, bernie has short zero coat tails other than he's the Dem nominee.

 

Also under that scenario, the Congressional D's likely cut Bernie zero slack right from the get go.

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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I'm in this camp as well. I'm not saying Bernie can't win but that would be more of Trump losing. And with that scenario, bernie has short zero coat tails other than he's the Dem nominee.

 

I’m worried about Bernie undermining the campaigns of Kelly, Gideon, and killing any shot of success in Georgia.

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Ghost of LL

Ghost of LL 15698

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Posted
Just now, Voldemort86 said:

I’m worried about Bernie undermining the campaigns of Kelly, Gideon, and killing any shot of success in Georgia.

It's a pretty legitimate worry.  With Bernie at the top of the ticket, I'm not sure how we win any of those seats outside of Colorado.

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Pasken

Pasken 1312

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Posted (edited)

Hager with another big fundraising report. I'm suprissed to see Christina in 2nd in a recent poll but I'm being half the people who answered didn't know who they were voting for.

 

Quote

 

Democratic Senate candidate MJ Hegar reported Thursday that her campaign raised $638,000 in the first six weeks of 2020 and had $850,000 in cash on hand headed into the final stretch before the March 3 primary.

Hegar, leading the polls in a crowded 12-person field, has been far and away the top fundraiser among the Democrats, collecting more than $3.8 million as of Feb. 12.

“We have tapped into the energy and excitement in Texas to build a winning grassroots campaign that is raising millions of dollars from tens of thousands of individuals,” Hegar said in a statement. “Our fundraising has enabled us to build out the strongest operation and put us in the best position to meet the demands of a Texas-sized winning Senate race.”

As the primary approaches, and early voting already underway, the campaign is on the airwaves in Austin, San Antonio and the Rio Grande Valley. The campaign, which is not accepting corporate PAC money, reported most of its donations have been from Texas.

The incumbent, U.S. Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas, who is facing four little-known rivals in the Republican primary, reported raising $1.2 million between Jan. 1 and Feb. 12, spending $1.3 million and having $12 million in the bank. That’s a huge head start against any Democrat, including Hegar, who will have to replenish her war chest after March 3 and, unless the polls are entirely misbegotten, will almost certainly be headed to a May 26 runoff against whichever of her 11 rivals places second.

The most recent University of Texas/Texas Tribune poll, released Monday, had Hegar at 22% with Austin activist Cristina Tzintzún Ramirez, her closest rival, at 9%, and a big chunk of the electorate still up for grabs.

On Tuesday, U.S. Rep. Joaquín Castro, D-San Antonio, announced his endorsement of Tzintzún Ramirez.

 

 

 

Looks like Cristina is getting some PAC help:

Cristina Tzintzún Ramirez gets super PAC help in Democratic primary to challenge Cornyn

Quote

 

A new super PAC is coming to the aid of Cristina Tzintzún Ramirez as she seeks to advance to a widely expected runoff for the Democratic nomination to challenge U.S. Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas.

The political action committee, Lone Star Forward PAC, is launching a TV ad buy Wednesday across South Texas and El Paso that includes a 30-second spot saying Tzintzún Ramirez is "running to be our first Latina senator." A narrator goes on to mention the candidate's views on issues such as health care and gun laws before saying, "Cristina Tzintzún Ramirez — her fight is our fight." Throughout, the spot highlights her endorsements from the Latino Victory Fund, two labor unions, the Austin Chronicle and Rosie Castro, the mother of Julián and Joaquin Castro.

The buy comes after a University of Texas/Texas Tribune poll showed that one of Tzintzún Ramirez's 11 primary rivals, MJ Hegar, is well positioned to make it to a runoff, while several candidates, including Tzintzún Ramirez, are in contention for second place. Hegar, the former Air Force helicopter pilot, has been benefitting from seven figures worth of outside spending on her behalf.

The Lone Star Forward ad buy is running through Monday on broadcast TV in San Antonio, Corpus Christi, Laredo and El Paso, as well as on cable in Harlingen, according to a person involved in the effort who was not authorized to speak publicly on behalf of the super PAC. The group is spending "low six figures" on the initial buy, the person said, and the ad is expected to stay on the air through the March 3 primary.

 

 

 

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