2020 Senate Elections

[RayDog 682]

2 hours ago, Pasken said:

Hager with another big fundraising report. I'm suprissed to see Christina in 2nd in a recent poll but I'm being half the people who answered didn't know who they were voting for.

 

 

 

Looks like Cristina is getting some PAC help:

Cristina Tzintzún Ramirez gets super PAC help in Democratic primary to challenge Cornyn

 

 

Progressives know who to vote for and there is only one in this race. It does not surprise me Ramirez is in 2nd.

[Pasken 1309]

This could help Cristina cement a place in the dem runoff.

[gmr548 16602]

This could help Cristina cement a place in the dem runoff.

I'm probably going to vote for her. I may flip to Hegar in the runoff if I think she has a significantly better chance of actually winning, but as it stands now I'm pretty sure it's an L regardless. With that in mind I'd prefer the progressive candidate to stay in it it and keep laying groundwork.

[Voldemort86 2259]

2 hours ago, gmr548 said:

2 hours ago, Pasken said:

This could help Cristina cement a place in the dem runoff.

I'm probably going to vote for her. I may flip to Hegar in the runoff if I think she has a significantly better chance of actually winning, but as it stands now I'm pretty sure it's an L regardless. With that in mind I'd prefer the progressive candidate to stay in it it and keep laying groundwork.

The reason to vote for Hegar is fund raising. You can’t win in Texas with no money. I think Hegar would do better in the general too.

[berlinerbaer 678]

On 2/19/2020 at 1:27 PM, Calihorn said:

 

Real smart of Ducey to pick the lady who already lost a senate race as a replacement.

Ducey had no choice. The Arizona GOP doesn't have much of a bench anymore. It's not at all like Texas. For a decade after the Dems win their first statewide seat in TX, I expect the GOP to still contest heavily and even win the majority of statewide offices. I wouldn't count on Texas becoming a legitimate blue state, but will instead move to purple and stay there for the foreseeable future, like Florida and North Carolina. One reason is because of the large number of quality candidates either currently in lower offices or waiting to run. This will make TX a swing state long after the demographics would suggest it should be blue.

Arizona is different. McSally was appointed because the alternatives were Kelli Ward or the convict former sheriff. The only sure win the GOP has for Senate is Ducey himself if he chooses to run after his governor term limits expire. The GOP is in real trouble in Arizona, so that state may go straight from red to blue without lingering at purple for more than a couple of cycles, much like Colorado and Virginia have done.

 

 

 

[Zonahorn 8079]

Just now, berlinerbaer said:

Ducey had no choice. The Arizona GOP doesn't have much of a bench anymore. It's not at all like Texas. For a decade after the Dems win their first statewide seat in TX, I expect the GOP to still contest heavily and even win the majority of statewide offices. I wouldn't count on Texas becoming a legitimate blue state, but will instead move to purple and stay there for the foreseeable future, like Florida and North Carolina. One reason is because of the large number of quality candidates either currently in lower offices or waiting to run. This will make TX a swing state long after the demographics would suggest it should be blue.

Arizona is different. McSally was appointed because the alternatives were Kelli Ward or the convict former sheriff. The only sure win the GOP has for Senate is Ducey himself if he chooses to run after his governor term limits expire. The GOP is in real trouble in Arizona, so that state may go straight from red to blue without lingering at purple for more than a couple of cycles, much like Colorado and Virginia have done.

 

 

 

That's a good point I hadn't considered. Especially since the Democrats I this state have their shit together, and have a very solid bench. I'M SO EXCITED

[berlinerbaer 678]

4 hours ago, gmr548 said:

4 hours ago, Pasken said:

This could help Cristina cement a place in the dem runoff.

I'm probably going to vote for her. I may flip to Hegar in the runoff if I think she has a significantly better chance of actually winning, but as it stands now I'm pretty sure it's an L regardless. With that in mind I'd prefer the progressive candidate to stay in it it and keep laying groundwork.

You've pretty much described me. I'll likely vote Hegar in the runoff as well, but I want to see a statewide match-up between a progressive and a moderate Dem, so I'll vote for Tzintzun this go around.

The runoff will gauge just how remote Bernie's prospects are for flipping this state in the general or, conversely, make me wish we had nominated him if we instead go with Bloomie.

[Voldemort86 2259]

22 minutes ago, berlinerbaer said:

Ducey had no choice. The Arizona GOP doesn't have much of a bench anymore. It's not at all like Texas. For a decade after the Dems win their first statewide seat in TX, I expect the GOP to still contest heavily and even win the majority of statewide offices. I wouldn't count on Texas becoming a legitimate blue state, but will instead move to purple and stay there for the foreseeable future, like Florida and North Carolina. One reason is because of the large number of quality candidates either currently in lower offices or waiting to run. This will make TX a swing state long after the demographics would suggest it should be blue.

Arizona is different. McSally was appointed because the alternatives were Kelli Ward or the convict former sheriff. The only sure win the GOP has for Senate is Ducey himself if he chooses to run after his governor term limits expire. The GOP is in real trouble in Arizona, so that state may go straight from red to blue without lingering at purple for more than a couple of cycles, much like Colorado and Virginia have done.

 

 

 

Could be wrong, but I think most Arizona folks are happy with sinema so far. I hope she will be tough to beat, but thankfully her seat doesn’t come up again until 2024. That could be a very interesting year in Arizona. It might be the first time they vote blue in a presidential race in forever.

[Aqua Buddha 14600]

28 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

Could be wrong, but I think most Arizona folks are happy with sinema so far. I hope she will be tough to beat, but thankfully her seat doesn’t come up again until 2024. That could be a very interesting year in Arizona. It might be the first time they vote blue in a presidential race in forever.

They may vote blue this year.

[RayDog 682]

There won't be much difference between the Kelly-McSally numbers and the Dem-Trump numbers. It will be a point or so difference at most.

[Voldemort86 2259]

1 hour ago, Aqua Buddha said:

They may vote blue this year.

I don’t share your optimism on that one, but it does seem like Georgia and Arizona could be purple status any day now.

[Zonahorn 8079]

13 hours ago, Voldemort86 said:

I don’t share your optimism on that one, but it does seem like Georgia and Arizona could be purple status any day now.

Arizona is a purple state already

[gmr548 16602]

The reason to vote for Hegar is fund raising. You can’t win in Texas with no money. I think Hegar would do better in the general too.

I'm sure she'd do better. Right now I view better as 6-8 point loss vs 10-12 In that case I'm sticking to progressive policy stances. If Hegar gets some momentum going and gets in a position to win or even make Cornyn work, I'll switch.

[Voldemort86 2259]

27 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

I'm sure she'd do better. Right now I view better as 6-8 point loss vs 10-12 In that case I'm sticking to progressive policy stances. If Hegar gets some momentum going and gets in a position to win or even make Cornyn work, I'll switch.

I’d take a 6 point loss right now with Bernie presumably on the ballot. 
 

the one thing we can’t afford is to see the numbers start going the other way. We need to continue to narrow the gap. I know Cruz almost lost because people understandably hate his guts, but in Texas, the thing to watch is still how much Dems lose by or “ how close do we get?” and not “will we win or lose?” Quite yet.

hopefully that changes soon tho. Need more old people in the rural areas to die off.

Edited February 22, 2020 by Voldemort86

[Pasken 1309]

On 2/21/2020 at 4:12 PM, berlinerbaer said:

You've pretty much described me. I'll likely vote Hegar in the runoff as well, but I want to see a statewide match-up between a progressive and a moderate Dem, so I'll vote for Tzintzun this go around.

The runoff will gauge just how remote Bernie's prospects are for flipping this state in the general or, conversely, make me wish we had nominated him if we instead go with Bloomie.

Ditto although I'm still not convinced MJ Is the better general candidate. I just don't see a reason moderate conservatives will love Cornyn who is well liked for MJ. I think it's reasonable to try to go the other way and win the election with electorate enthusiasm with young voters and hispanics which Cristina would bring. I don't know. I mean, it's going to be a loss either way in the general I guess.

[Ghost of LL 15539]

7 hours ago, Pasken said:

Ditto although I'm still not convinced MJ Is the better general candidate. I just don't see a reason moderate conservatives will love Cornyn who is well liked for MJ. I think it's reasonable to try to go the other way and win the election with electorate enthusiasm with young voters and hispanics which Cristina would bring. I don't know. I mean, it's going to be a loss either way in the general I guess.

I don't even understand this line of thinking--we're probably going to lose, so let's make sure we lose really, really big?  And in so doing, let's undermine our chances of winning other races further down the ballot?  Oh, and as an added bonus, we'll handicap the party's fundraising for years to come by showing that Texas is not (and probably never will be) competitive?

I swear to God, it is positively amazing just how good Democrats are at shooting themselves in the dick.

[Pasken 1309]

3 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

I don't even understand this line of thinking--we're probably going to lose, so let's make sure we lose really, really big? 

You know that is clearly not what I said. It's choosing between an option you know won't work but won't be terrible and an option with high risk/high reward.

Edited February 24, 2020 by Pasken

[Walden Ponderer 12639]

Weird being in a state where outside interference really is a thing. Cal Cunningham has been running ads for North Carolina Senate (Dem primary) since I got here. When I Googled all the candidates, he was the only one with seemingly any national political experience at all, though there is also an activist from Durham in the race (State Sen. Erica Smith), and while I know of no actual harm in voting for her, she's a less-well-funded, and much-less-likely-to-win alternative.

But now, the week of the election, her ads won't stop playing on the radio. And it turns out, they are being funded by a Republican PAC.

I've got Liberal friends who always vote in the Republican primary in College Station -- I always tell them it's a bad idea; you don't like others interfering with your party, why would you interfere with someone else's? Pretty much, yeah.

McConnell-aligned super PAC-funded group meddling in North Carolina Democratic primary

[Ghost of LL 15539]

23 minutes ago, Pasken said:

You know that is clearly not what I said. It's choosing between an option you know won't work but won't be terrible and an option with high risk/high reward.

There's no high reward.  Tzintzun-Ramirez would lose, and she would lose in shockingly bad fashion.  And it would be so bad that it would damage the party for years.

I really don't understand the thinking behind that.

[RayDog 682]

11 hours ago, Ghost of LL said:

There's no high reward.  Tzintzun-Ramirez would lose, and she would lose in shockingly bad fashion.  And it would be so bad that it would damage the party for years.

I really don't understand the thinking behind that.

I disagree. Bernie's followers will vote for her. Ramirez with Bernie running for president is the only chance Democrats have of winning the Senate race.

[Bookman 4639]

I despise Donald Trump and John Cornyn but I'm not going to vote for Bernie Sanders or Cristina Tzintzun Ramirez.

[Bookman 4639]

On 2/22/2020 at 9:25 AM, Voldemort86 said:

 I know Cruz almost lost because people understandably hate his guts,

Is this really the case? An awful lot of Texans love them some Ted Cruz. Not sure if they have the same love for John Cornyn.

[Zonahorn 8079]

 

Hell. fucking. Yes

[berlinerbaer 678]

On 2/24/2020 at 4:35 PM, Ghost of LL said:

There's no high reward.  Tzintzun-Ramirez would lose, and she would lose in shockingly bad fashion.  And it would be so bad that it would damage the party for years.

I really don't understand the thinking behind that.

She'll mop up the latino vote. Sema Hernandez beat Beto in the RGV and other southern counties in 2018. Was that because she was hispanic, or a progressive? Either way, it helps Cristina this go-around in a runoff and in the general.

[Brothahorn 10087]

Not sure where to post this, but good 3 part podcast on the the Alabama Democratic Party and problems over the years.  There was some crazy bylaw that basically allowed one person to have a stranglehold of power. The guy sounds like a true hero for civil rights but the state party became his personal fiefdom over the years. It was to a point that the national party couldn't even get the Alabama party to return a phone call.
The state party did next to zero fundraising, and if a candidate wanted their help, there were some questionable (alleged) practices going on.
I won't ruin the outcome, if you're unaware, but there are still issues which present challenges for candidates, including Sen. Doug Jones, to get re-elected.
Part 1 of the podcast: https://gimletmedia.com/shows/reply-all/llhd33/152-the-real-enemy-part-1
 

Great listen of how the sausage is made in Bama.

[Ghost of LL 15539]

12 hours ago, berlinerbaer said:

She'll mop up the latino vote. Sema Hernandez beat Beto in the RGV and other southern counties in 2018. Was that because she was hispanic, or a progressive? Either way, it helps Cristina this go-around in a runoff and in the general.

Assuming that Hernandez doesn't make the runoff based on her support in the RGV.

[Bama Chick 28596]

RE the mess that WAS the Alabama Democratic Party - the judge ruled in favor of the reformers! The below tweet links to a thread that explains why any appeals from Worley and Reed are very unlikely to succeed.

Fuck off Nancy and Joe!

[Bama Chick 28596]

Bringing this discussion over from the SC Primary thread -

Does Tuberville have a chance? Him being an actual senate nominee is peak SEC country. Isn't Sessions the no-brainer?

Tubs definitely has a chance. He’s so Trumpy it’s scary!

His ads and Byrne’s ads are all about how Sessions fucked over Trump.

Here’s an article from the WSJ from today that explains the state of the Republican primary pretty well.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/alabama-senate-primary-becomes-test-of-loyalty-to-trump-11582984801

Latest polling numbers I could find -



Byrne HATES Sessions for jumping in the race late because he felt like it was “his turn”. If the runoff is between Tubs and Sessions I could easily see the Byrne supporters breaking to Tubs out of spite for Sessions. I could see Roy Moore voters going for Tubs too because they hate that all the non-pedophile Republicans washed their hands of him last time.

Should be interesting and I’m definitely hoping Tuberville wins. Lots of Alabama fans hold a huge grudge against him and while I’m not delusional enough to think they’ll pull the lever for Jones, I could see a portion of them not voting in that race or writing in Saban or something. Other Republicans also don’t like Sessions anymore because they see him as being a “traitor” of Trump. Those folks might skip voting in the senate race too.

[cactusflinthead 27601]

From the link through of that poll.

According to the survey of likely Republican voters, if the election were held today, 31% would vote for former U.S. Attorney General Jeff Sessions, 29% would choose former Auburn football coach Tommy Tuberville and 17% would choose Congressman Bradley Byrne.

Five percent said they would choose former Alabama Chief Justice Roy Moore, and no other candidate registered more than 1%. Sixteen percent of voters said they were undecided.

https://www.aldailynews.com/new-alabama-poll-shows-tight-race-for-u-s-senate/

16 undecided is pretty big.

[Bama Chick 28596]

Yep, 16% undecided is big but it’s not enough to put either Sessions or Tuberville over the 50% threshold even if all the undecideds break to the same candidate.

Sessions - 47%
Tuberville - 45%

The runoff will be March 31. Another month of them gnawing each other’s faces off will be fun to see.

[BradInATX 9208]

Damn. That sounds fun. Keep us updated from the ground.

[washparkhorn 9939]

5 hours ago, Bama Chick said:

Yep, 16% undecided is big but it’s not enough to put either Sessions or Tuberville over the 50% threshold even if all the undecideds break to the same candidate.

Sessions - 47%
Tuberville - 45%

The runoff will be March 31. Another month of them gnawing each other’s faces off will be fun to see.

Boy those two trumpkins have horrible messaging. 

Is it Tooberville or Tubberville?  A tube or a tub? Now a politician?  Coach Osborne had entirely different persona - one of earnestness. Coach Toob or Tubb is a walking meme. And memes sting (remember "ok boomer"). His whole "Sessions is Romney" attack is pure trumpkin idiocy baked into a lie. He wants to stick his snout into the feed trough. A neo-bloomberg who wants to get paid. 

And Sessions - he is a walking warning how Trump betrays . . . everyone, including his fans and supporters. Trump has been a disappointment to a large section of his voting base. Many only tentatively cling-on because they love to see establishment DC rage, but they will not vote for him this time. They are hungry for truth and getting rid of their regret for believing Trump. Sessions is one of the guys Trump fooled. Sessions could be honest about that. He lent early authenticity to Trump in that 2016 race. I think he regrets that. Now he hides behind standing up for Trump. Sessions has a major credibility issue. 

Jones can win this race. Alabama is proud -- and Trump brings the State shame. Positivity about the future of the state and highlighting where Alabama will progress is an easy message to deliver. People want to be proud. That is what made America great, not bunch of BS from the demented billionaire class. He cannot let Trump's messaging dominate this Senate race. He should make it about Alabama - what works for Alabama. 

 

[Bama Chick 28596]

Jones has got good approval numbers and he’s done a great job at constitute services.

He’s also been very successful in voting with the Democrats and being honest and unashamed about it with hometown folks.

He’s also sponsored and promoted a lot of legislation that plays well here - bill to lower taxes on war widow/widower pensions, proposing extra funding for HBCUs, and federal assistance to help attract some big new job creators locating to Alabama.

He also played the impeachment deal very deftly - prior to the trial stating he had a open mind and then did daily (sometimes more than one a day) videos of him explaining each day’s events, and walking voters through his thought process.

Even my Republican friend’s grudgingly admit he’s done a good job.

And any time he’s back home he spends time at community events and voter outreach programs and high visibility events that aren’t strictly partisan.

Plus, he’s got an upcoming benefit concert for his campaign with Jason Isbell. Alabama loves them some Jason Isbell and he’s been all over social media promoting Jones.

I’ve been pleasantly surprised at how he presents himself to his constituents as an Alabaman first and as “Alabama Democrat” yet still votes the way national democrats expect him to. He’s threaded that needle very deftly.

He definitely has avoided becoming another Joe Manchin.

And as of Tuberville, it’s “tub” not “toon”.

And I cannot understate how much Alabama fans DESPISE Ole Jugeared Tommy.

It’s too late to get into the details - maybe I’ll get into that tomorrow.

But needless to say, despite all the success of the Saban tenure, Bama fans over the age of 35 still hold a deep grudge of hatred for two coaches - Phillip Fulmer and Tommy Tuberville.

Even my Republican husband has said there’s absolutely no way in hell he’d ever vote for Tubs.

He’s voting blue in the general for President, unless it’s Bernie or Warren - he owns a bank. But he refuses to vote for Trump, so if the option is Sanders or Warren he’s leaving the presidential ballot blank.

It’s gonna be fun to watch play out that’s for sure. And I have full confidence that Jones will wipe the floor with Tubs or Sessions in a debate.

[washparkhorn 9939]

Toobyville talking about evil Texas and praising Bloomberg beginning at 5:00 mark - oh, and his son is a Kneeyou York Investment banker . . . What a phony. 

 

Jones can definitely win against him. 

 

[washparkhorn 9939]

Jones is the real deal. Keep us updated. That is a great senate race. 

Edited March 1, 2020 by washparkhorn

[RDCanecutter 26465]

Sessions is dropping. I predict he changes his name to "Dukakis" and rides around in a tank. He looks like a cross between Faulkner's syphilitic Popeye and the Head Illinois Nazi, except with an accent that sounds almost like a speech defect. I mean, I am from the exact same part of the state where Sessions comes from, and he sounds funny to me.

 

Bradley Byrne comes across as Well-Bred Sad Frat Boy. Usually, such a person would have a career arc that includes doing summer stock in the Smokies, taking a stab at a real theater career in NYC (Did I tell you about that time in NYC?), then when Mama gets sick he'd come back home and fix up the old Kress department store into an Arts Centre and civilize a new generation of bumptious provincial apes. But Bradley chose politics, as well as talking about his dead brother's military service as if it were somehow his own. (Maybe I'll start mentioning that Grandaddy Canecutter was in the Battle of the Bulge, try to get some free Belgian chocolate or some shit.)

 

Tubs is not Sessions or Byrne, which helps him. He does vocal fry the approved way, ie when a grown man does it like a pilot or a Hollywood Davey Crockett. He sort of comes across as a non-religious-grifter non-pedo Roy Moore in his aw shucks mannerisms. He also waved his fingers and thumbs around during Auburn's win streak with Aggy-tastic fervor. I mainly remember his dead eyes when he and the team would link arms because they'd been paid to by Under Armour. He should fit right in in Montgomery.

 

Basically all three candidates' ads started as "I will suck Trump's dick while praying to God and Shotguns." Lately, a Tubs soundbite emerged where, out of context, he thought Mexicans were people too, and Sessions and Byrne have been hopping mad about that.

 

My hopes as a Jones Man are that Tubs whips both Sessions and Byrnes' asses, as a public service, and then he goobers up the general. I agree with Chick that Tubs is the weakest link. Personally, if he wins anyway, he cuts off the career aspirations of Sessions and Byrne, which if that's what I can get, I'll take it.

 

I just hope the idiot DNC doesn't stick a foot in the door and Ossoff the whole thing. If they steer clear, I give Jones a 1-in-3 shot.

Edited March 1, 2020 by RDCanecutter

[tx 3 putt 77329]

1 hour ago, RDCanecutter said:

Lately, a Tubs soundbite emerged where, out of context, he thought Mexicans were people too, and Sessions and Byrne have been hopping mad about that.

Hahahaha that’s awesome, fuck those browns !!!!!!!

 

hahahahahhahaha

[RDCanecutter 26465]

I mistakenly compared Byrne to a frustrated Theater Major. I would like to apologize to all Theater Majors, whom I consider people of determination and daring, taking crazy chances in a profession that brings the world joy but gives no guarantee of success to even the hardest workers. If elected, Theater Majors do interesting Justin Trudeau type things.

[gmr548 16602]

12 hours ago, washparkhorn said:

Toobyville talking about evil Texas and praising Bloomberg beginning at 5:00 mark - oh, and his son is a Kneeyou York Investment banker . . . What a phony. 

 

Just LOL. I made it one minute, 52 seconds. Tubberville is a fucking moron. 

[tx 3 putt 77329]

Just now, gmr548 said:

Just LOL. I made it one minute, 52 seconds. Tubberville is a fucking moron. 

Perfect representation for that state 

[Bama Chick 28596]

Perfect representation for that state 

 

Jimbo Fisher is no more representative of the state of Texas than Tommy Tuberville is of the state of Alabama.

 

Call him representative of this state to 60% of Alabamans and you’re likely to get punched in the mouth while “Yea Alabama” plays in the background.

 

I wouldn’t vote for his cheating ass if he was a Democrat.

 

Fuck that jugeared smug orange and blue tiny dicked war eagle shitpickle.

 

(His actual residence is in Florida but he still owns property in Auburn, this allowing him to run.)

[gmr548 16602]

 
Jimbo Fisher is no more representative of the state of Texas than Tommy Tuberville is of the state of Alabama.

Yeah, good thing we have Tom Her-

Fuck.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13521]

Does Doug Jones seriously have a chance? He barely beat Roy Moore. I can many Alabama voters saying “I’ve been pleasantly surprised by Doug as my senator but MAGA.”

And the whole Alabama Democrat party drama doesn’t help Doug. They needed to toss out of the old leaders but that could have short term negatives effects.

[Bateshorn 9929]

3 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Does Doug Jones seriously have a chance? He barely beat Roy Moore. I can many Alabama voters saying “I’ve been pleasantly surprised by Doug as my senator but MAGA.”

And the whole Alabama Democrat party drama doesn’t help Doug. They needed to toss out of the old leaders but that could have short term negatives effects.

No.  It's Alabama. 

 

Also: Extra Bernie/Liz bonus, MA and VT have GOP governors.  You don't need 4 seats to take back the Senate, you need 5 if they win the Presidency. At least until the special can be held to fill the seat.

Edited March 2, 2020 by Bateshorn

[Message Board User 12396]

 

[gmr548 16602]

No.  It's Alabama. 
 
Also: Extra Bernie/Liz bonus, MA and VT have GOP governors.  You don't need 4 seats to take back the Senate, you need 5 if they win the Presidency. At least until the special can be held to fill the seat.

An interesting point that isn't often brought up. Not only do they have GOP governors, they're among the most popular governors in the country. Of course, they wouldn't even be allowed to join the GOP in the south or the middle of the country.

I'm sure that the governor of Vermont (idk who it even is) knows that appointing some Trumpkin or straight up partisan kind of senator who would blatantly obstruct a hypothetical President Sanders would burn a lot of that good will. They're not going to give Ds control of the Senate though. Would be very interesting to watch.

[Bateshorn 9929]

1 minute ago, gmr548 said:

An interesting point that isn't often brought up. Not only do they have GOP governors, they're among the most popular governors in the country. Of course, they wouldn't even be allowed to join the GOP in the south or the middle of the country.

I'm sure that the governor of Vermont (idk who it even is) knows that appointing some Trumpkin or straight up partisan kind of senator who would blatantly obstruct a hypothetical President Sanders would burn a lot of that good will. They're not going to give Ds control of the Senate though. Would be very interesting to watch.

Both MA and VT have provisions that mandate a special to replace the previous occupant.  If Bernie is leading by May, He should  resign his seat so they can put the Special on the November ballot and give Peter Welch a chance to win the seat for the Dems.

[RDCanecutter 26465]

12 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Does Doug Jones seriously have a chance?

tldr up front: Probably the same chance as the US Navy had at Midway, where they've never been able to replicate the actual victory in wargames.

One of the Republican frontrunners could drop an unfamiliar shotgun, setting off a chain of mayhem. God could grow wrathful at the false pieties and turn all concerned into pillars of tomato-based pork bbq.

Monitoring the local talk radio, talk radio screechers are in high dudgeon about Session's many failings while AG. So if he gets the nomination, said screechers might not turn out. But these are the same people who'd be bitching about Bobby Lee if the CSA had won. Probably don't even vote.

Byrne, I forgot that he took on the AEA. You could probably improve the Alabama Educational Association's output if you fired them all and replaced them with honor's dorm convicts, who, I hear, love the library and could run the system via distance learning. So that's actually a plus for Sad Frat Byrne. I see him as the least-disliked known quantity, and most sure to win vs Jones. His ad personality is quite contrived, and he projects weakness as he talks of fighting, fighting, in a soft wet voice.

Tubs is the most likely to be hiding something. I doubt he humped up against little girls, but who knows. What I'm expecting is more some college football bagman confessions, maybe some old recordings of shit talk about UA. I don't hold out hope, but it's Alabama where even the dull stuff can flip to grotesquely interesting on a dime.

[Bama Chick 28596]

I’ll be the lone positive voice for Jones (just like last time, ahem).

Yes he has a shot and I’m waiting on a meeting to start and I’m on my phone so I’m not able to type everything out right now but I’ll come back later tonight with my thoughts.

But keep an eye on the Republican primary results tonight - if no one gets 50% +1, then the top two go to a runoff on March 31st.

Look for it to be Tuberville and Sessions.

Bradley Byrne’s 17-20% will make the difference in the runoff and I wouldn’t be surprised if he endorses Tuberville tonight in his concession speech.

The ads in the Republican primary have already been Trumpo Nutso so I cannot wait to see how batshit they are in the runoff.

[Pasken 1309]

So MJ is clearly going to the runoff in Texas but who the hell is ANNIE "MAMÁ" GARCIA? She is in 2nd but it's still early.