2020 Senate Elections

[Pasken 1312]

Ramirez is ahead of west by about 1,500 votes with a lot of Austin locations reporting to the SOS. We'll see if she can hold onto it.

[Message Board User 12406]

Nathaniel Rakich

11:16 PM

The Republican primary for U.S. Senate in Alabama is over … for now. According to the Associated Press, Jeff Sessions and Tommy Tuberville will advance to a March 31 runoff. The winner will face vulnerable Democratic Sen. Doug Jones.

[Brisketexan 106906]

Dammit, I miss Roy Moore and Sassy.

[Bama Chick 28596]

Yassssss

Tubs v. Sessions

Now to see if Byrne remains neutral or endorses someone.

Let the Trump Taint Sucking Bloodbath begin!!!

[washparkhorn 9973]

27 minutes ago, Bama Chick said:

Yassssss

Tubs v. Sessions

Now to see if Byrne remains neutral or endorses someone.

Let the Trump Taint Sucking Bloodbath begin!!!

That is going to be epic. Thanks for the update. Go look at Tubb's videos from around the time he joined the race. His message was very loose. Likes Bloomberg. We can win this seat. 

[washparkhorn 9973]

On 3/2/2020 at 1:32 PM, gmr548 said:

I'm sure that the governor of Vermont (idk who it even is) knows that appointing some Trumpkin or straight up partisan kind of senator who would blatantly obstruct a hypothetical President Sanders would burn a lot of that good will. They're not going to give Ds control of the Senate though. Would be very interesting to watch.

In Vermont (where they take the issue seriously), the Gov. has agreed to appoint an independent. They have a governor's race and the governor is seated before the Presidential inauguration. So the appointing governor will be the winner of an election this November. The current governor's two opponents have said they would appoint people who would caucus with Dems. Special election is 6 months later and the interim cannot run. 

Vermont has an extremely healthy democracy. 

https://www.sevendaysvt.com/OffMessage/archives/2020/02/28/scott-says-he-would-appoint-an-independent-to-succeed-sanders

[RDCanecutter 26895]

13 hours ago, Message Board User said:

Nathaniel Rakich

11:16 PM

The Republican primary for U.S. Senate in Alabama is over … for now. According to the Associated Press, Jeff Sessions and Tommy Tuberville will advance to a March 31 runoff. The winner will face vulnerable Democratic Sen. Doug Jones.

I watched both Tubs and Sessions speeches, and it is gonna turn rattlesnake eye-gougin mean between those two. I had the distinct impression that Sessions would become a cannibal elf, picking chunks of Tuberville out of his teeth. After all, the last time Tubs ran into an evil elf, he lost his Auburn coaching job. And I figured Sessions would scoop up all those Byrne "we like our senators to carry shotguns while looking like they never touch shotguns" voters.

But after spending entire minutes thinking about it, I can't decide who has the advantage. Sessions knows the game better. He also staked his claim to loving Trump before anybody loved Trump, and now Trump keeps on ridiculing him. Kinda blunts the power of the Trump card. If he tries to move away from Trump, where's the advantage in that? There's already a non-Trump candidate: Doug Jones.

I think the republican nomination may be Tuberville's to lose, hopefully after a few weeks of Maximum Stupid.

[High Plains Drifter 11190]

 

 

 

[Pig Bellmont 8887]

2 minutes ago, High Plains Drifter said:

 

 

 

lol - a bit graphic, but funny

[JimmyJames 12271]

7 minutes ago, RDCanecutter said:

I watched both Tubs and Sessions speeches, and it is gonna turn rattlesnake eye-gougin mean between those two. I had the distinct impression that Sessions would become a cannibal elf, picking chunks of Tuberville out of his teeth. After all, the last time Tubs ran into an evil elf, he lost his Auburn coaching job. And I figured Sessions would scoop up all those Byrne "we like our senators to carry shotguns while looking like they never touch shotguns" voters.

But after spending entire minutes thinking about it, I can't decide who has the advantage. Sessions knows the game better. He also staked his claim to loving Trump before anybody loved Trump, and now Trump keeps on ridiculing him. Kinda blunts the power of the Trump card. If he tries to move away from Trump, where's the advantage in that? There's already a non-Trump candidate: Doug Jones.

I think the republican nomination may be Tuberville's to lose, hopefully after a few weeks of Maximum Stupid.

I can’t decide whether watching Alabama evening TV commercials until the runoff election would be the most hilarious or the worst thing ever. Probably both. 

[RDCanecutter 26895]

20 minutes ago, JimmyJames said:

I can’t decide whether watching Alabama evening TV commercials until the runoff election would be the most hilarious or the worst thing ever. Probably both. 

You don't give a rip about Alabama.

PS: I believe Dale Peterson was later charged with shoplifting some grapes.

[RDCanecutter 26895]

16 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

Dammit, I miss Roy Moore and Sassy.

It was a great show, with Roy, Sassy, Mrs. Roy, Jeeeewww Lawyer, Sentient Chin Lawyer, Various Giant Rocks Carved with Commandments, Side-plots of Etowah County Sheriff Hijinks, Braying Ohio Preacher Lady, and all those kids hanging out at the mall. I felt like I knew them.

Maybe they will rerun it on MeTV.

[Brisketexan 106906]

1 minute ago, RDCanecutter said:

It was a great show, with Roy, Sassy, Mrs. Roy, Jeeeewww Lawyer, Sentient Chin Lawyer, Various Giant Rocks Carved with Commandments, Side-plots of Etowah County Sheriff Hijinks, Braying Ohio Preacher Lady, and all those kids hanging out at the mall. I felt like I knew them.

Maybe they will rerun it on MeTV.

It was one of the lowest moments in American politics.  So, for me, it was one of the greatest moments in American politics.

[SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3873]

2 hours ago, High Plains Drifter said:

 

 

 

yikes

[RDCanecutter 26895]

8 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

It was one of the lowest moments in American politics.  So, for me, it was one of the greatest moments in American politics.

Well, no churches blew up and nobody got their head busted down by the bridge, so by Pirate Kingdom of Alabama standards, it was all touch football.

[Hank Kingsley 21789]

Excellent news 

 

[Chuckie Finster 23081]

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/04/us/politics/steve-bullock-montana-senate.html

Steve Bullock Is Poised to Run for Senate in Montana, Officials Say

[Voldemort86 2259]

9 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

Excellent news 

 

GAME CHANGER MOTHER FUCKER.

 

the senate majority is now officially back in play.

 

bullock was probably waiting to make sure Bernie wasn’t going to be on the ballot above him. I still believe Bernie would’ve been toxic for the democrats down ballot.

[Ghost of LL 15698]

1 hour ago, Voldemort86 said:

GAME CHANGER MOTHER FUCKER.

 

the senate majority is now officially back in play.

 

bullock was probably waiting to make sure Bernie wasn’t going to be on the ballot above him. I still believe Bernie would’ve been toxic for the democrats down ballot.

I didn't think it was ever out of play.

But yeah--this is fantastic news.  It really opens up the possible avenues to a Senate majority.

[Aqua Buddha 14807]

Yeah, it was already in play.  There are 3 guaranteed GOP losses (ME, CO, and AZ) and only one likely Dem loss in Bama (sorry Bama Chick).  Throw in MT now with NC and IA being toss up and a Dem Senate is looking more likely.

[Voldemort86 2259]

29 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

I didn't think it was ever out of play.

But yeah--this is fantastic news.  It really opens up the possible avenues to a Senate majority.

I was highly skeptical of the Dems winning the senate before this. Colorado and Alabama will probably offset each other. 
 

maine and arizona I could see the Dems winning if Biden is on the ballot,  but not much else really. I wish I could be more confident in Georgia and North Carolina. Iowa and Texas still seem like big long shots.

[deac_tracy 517]

I was highly skeptical of the Dems winning the senate before this. Colorado and Alabama will probably offset each other. 
 
maine and arizona I could see the Dems winning if Biden is on the ballot,  but not much else really. I wish I could be more confident in Georgia and North Carolina. Iowa and Texas still seem like big long shots.

Kansas is in play as well if Kobach is the GOP nominee.

[SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3873]

I'd rather it not be Kobach as the nominee and concede it to R than risk that turd ends up in the senate.

[Pasken 1312]

Texas Dem Primary runoff is going to be MJ and Royce West. 

[Ghost of LL 15698]

55 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

I was highly skeptical of the Dems winning the senate before this. Colorado and Alabama will probably offset each other. 
 

maine and arizona I could see the Dems winning if Biden is on the ballot,  but not much else really. I wish I could be more confident in Georgia and North Carolina. Iowa and Texas still seem like big long shots.

I gotta tell you--I'm feeling not-at-all bad about our chances in Texas.

We had more primary voters than the GOP in Texas.  That's a big fucking deal.

And you look at Cornyn--he won only 76% in a primary in which he was running against a group of nobodies.  That's not real good.  It indicates that there's some weakness.

And forget about Georgia.  But I really like our chances in North Carolina.  Tillis is powerfully unpopular.

[Voldemort86 2259]

Just now, Ghost of LL said:

I gotta tell you--I'm feeling not-at-all bad about our chances in Texas.

We had more primary voters than the GOP in Texas.  That's a big fucking deal.

And you look at Cornyn--he won only 76% in a primary in which he was running against a group of nobodies.  That's not real good.  It indicates that there's some weakness.

And forget about Georgia.  But I really like our chances in North Carolina.  Tillis is powerfully unpopular.

Beto won lots of cross over support. Even lots of republicans and business oriented GOP voted for him because so many people hate Ted Cruz so much. Cornyn is like that grandpa whose part of a busy family. You ignore him 95% of the time and he doesn’t do much besides hold the door for mitch mcconnell after the senate majority leader does his press conferences. It’s nearly impossible to hate Cornyn, but it’s hard to like him too. The guy is literally just there. 

[Brisketexan 106906]

38 minutes ago, Pasken said:

Texas Dem Primary runoff is going to be MJ and Royce West. 

That's interesting, man.

Either one would be a good pick.  Royce knows how to legislate and get shit done.  MJ is more energetic and a more exciting campaigner.  Not sure who I like in this one.  Probably MJ, but I could be convinced.

[gmr548 16702]

3 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

Beto won lots of cross over support. Even lots of republicans and business oriented GOP voted for him because so many people hate Ted Cruz so much. Cornyn is like that grandpa whose part of a busy family. You ignore him 95% of the time and he doesn’t do much besides hold the door for mitch mcconnell after the senate majority leader does his press conferences. It’s nearly impossible to hate Cornyn, but it’s hard to like him too. The guy is literally just there. 

Yeah, there were a fuckton of Beto-Abbott voters. I'd bet 75 percent of those stay home for Cornyn this time around.

[Voldemort86 2259]

17 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

Yeah, there were a fuckton of Beto-Abbott voters. I'd bet 75 percent of those stay home for Cornyn this time around.

I was a reluctant Beto - Abbott voter.  Lupe was probably the worst candidate for governor the Dems have ever put up. She could barely put a coherent sentence together. I hope the Dems will start taking that race seriously as well. That race was deadweight in 2018.

[Pasken 1312]

44 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

I was a reluctant Beto - Abbott voter.  Lupe was probably the worst candidate for governor the Dems have ever put up. She could barely put a coherent sentence together. I hope the Dems will start taking that race seriously as well. That race was deadweight in 2018.

It was an unwinable race so it’s hard to convince someone with a good career going to take a year off to be slaughtered.

[GopherRock 1773]

5 hours ago, Voldemort86 said:

GAME CHANGER MOTHER FUCKER.

 

the senate majority is now officially back in play.

 

bullock was probably waiting to make sure Bernie wasn’t going to be on the ballot above him. I still believe Bernie would’ve been toxic for the democrats down ballot.

The Senate majority was always in play for 2020, but there's nothing wrong with making the GOP play more defense. 

Based on this news, as well as the Super Tuesday results, I'd sort the Senate races into the following tiers:

Sure-fire Dem pickups: Maine, Arizona, Colorado, North Carolina. 

Live underdogs: Montana, Iowa, Georgia x 2, Kansas if Kobach is the nominee, Bama

Lotto tickets: South Carolina, Texas, Kentucky, Alaska 

Doug Jones and one of the Georgia seats look a lot nicer with Joe Biden at the top of the bill. Thanks Obama. Haven't quite decided what to do with Montana. I know there have been other Democrat statewide winners there in the recent past, and Bullock has won statewide there recently. But a race like this determines is Trump still has coattails.

I put Alaska on there because there's an intra-party fight up there that makes the Alabama Senate donnybrook look downright tame. 
https://www.adn.com/opinions/editorials/2019/09/28/the-war-for-the-soul-of-the-alaska-republican-party/

[Ghost of LL 15698]

The Senate majority was always in play for 2020, but there's nothing wrong with making the GOP play more defense. 
Based on this news, as well as the Super Tuesday results, I'd sort the Senate races into the following tiers:
Sure-fire Dem pickups: Maine, Arizona, Colorado, North Carolina. 
Live underdogs: Montana, Iowa, Georgia x 2, Kansas if Kobach is the nominee, Bama
Lotto tickets: South Carolina, Texas, Kentucky, Alaska 
Doug Jones and one of the Georgia seats look a lot nicer with Joe Biden at the top of the bill. Thanks Obama. Haven't quite decided what to do with Montana. I know there have been other Democrat statewide winners there in the recent past, and Bullock has won statewide there recently. But a race like this determines is Trump still has coattails.
I put Alaska on there because there's an intra-party fight up there that makes the Alabama Senate donnybrook look downright tame. 
https://www.adn.com/opinions/editorials/2019/09/28/the-war-for-the-soul-of-the-alaska-republican-party/

Yeah—I think I’d put Alaska above a “lotto ticket.” I think it’s roughly even with South Carolina.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[gmr548 16702]

16 minutes ago, GopherRock said:

The Senate majority was always in play for 2020, but there's nothing wrong with making the GOP play more defense. 

Based on this news, as well as the Super Tuesday results, I'd sort the Senate races into the following tiers:

Sure-fire Dem pickups: Maine, Arizona, Colorado, North Carolina. 

Live underdogs: Montana, Iowa, Georgia x 2, Kansas if Kobach is the nominee, Bama

Lotto tickets: South Carolina, Texas, Kentucky, Alaska 

Doug Jones and one of the Georgia seats look a lot nicer with Joe Biden at the top of the bill. Thanks Obama. Haven't quite decided what to do with Montana. I know there have been other Democrat statewide winners there in the recent past, and Bullock has won statewide there recently. But a race like this determines is Trump still has coattails.

I put Alaska on there because there's an intra-party fight up there that makes the Alabama Senate donnybrook look downright tame. 
https://www.adn.com/opinions/editorials/2019/09/28/the-war-for-the-soul-of-the-alaska-republican-party/

I don't think you can call anything but Colorado a lock. Individually they're each mote likely than not to be D pickups at the moment, but odds are Democrats lose to one of the incumbents in ME or NC, or can't get across the finish line in red-leaning AZ. AL is probably also a loss so they need to hit on one or two of those long shots depending on the presidential outcome.

I will say that if Biden is the eventual nominee his strength among black voters would make me feel really good about NC senate, even if I don't think he'll flip the state.

 

 

[SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3873]

I think gmr is right.  The predictions are too rosy.  It's too easy to look at polls that over sample D given turnouts R's have, particularly when the senate is at play in their state since all they care about is SCOTUS.

[gmr548 16702]

2 minutes ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

I think gmr is right.  The predictions are too rosy.  It's too easy to look at polls that over sample D given turnouts R's have, particularly when the senate is at play in their state since all they care about is SCOTUS.

True, the Republican electorate is a lot more motivated by the judicial implications of Senate elections than Democrats are.

Senate races have also trended more in line with state partisanship at the Presidential level, and none of ME, NC, or AZ are as solidly blue as Colorado. ME is a blue lean but Trump is very competitive there and could help save Collins. NC and AZ are GOP leans. It's also just really hard to unseat an incumbent Senator without significant built in advantages - that certainly doesn't exist in NC and isn't strong enough in ME to call it a lock. A sweep just seems improbable thinking about all that, even if Ds would probably be favored in each race.

[tx 3 putt 78697]

dems need to get out the vote in texas 

[Biff Tannen 46168]

9 hours ago, High Plains Drifter said:

 

 

 

holy shit lol

[Biff Tannen 46168]

3 hours ago, Ghost of LL said:

I gotta tell you--I'm feeling not-at-all bad about our chances in Texas.

We had more primary voters than the GOP in Texas.  That's a big fucking deal.

And you look at Cornyn--he won only 76% in a primary in which he was running against a group of nobodies.  That's not real good.  It indicates that there's some weakness.

And forget about Georgia.  But I really like our chances in North Carolina.  Tillis is powerfully unpopular.

I still think Texas is a long shot, but I think Beto woke a lot of people up, myself included.  I think we will see a lot of MJ (or whatever dem) votes as part of a Beto backlash.  I still don't think it will be enough to win, but it will be relatively close.  At least that's what I tell myself.

[Ghost of LL 15698]

I still think Texas is a long shot, but I think Beto woke a lot of people up, myself included.  I think we will see a lot of MJ (or whatever dem) votes as part of a Beto backlash.  I still don't think it will be enough to win, but it will be relatively close.  At least that's what I tell myself.

Something else to keep in mind—John Cornyn hasn’t had to run a real campaign in ... ever? Has he ever been really opposed?

I don’t think we have any idea whether he’s a good campaigner.

And, for that matter, I think we learned in 2018 that there’s a real shortage of GOP campaign talent in this state. They’ve gone an entire generation just fighting primary elections. They don’t really know how to run a general-election campaign.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[gmr548 16702]

https://www.predictit.org/markets/2/Congress

 

Interestingly, the odds for Democrats retaking the Senate are currently the same as the odds for Republicans retaking the House.

To me, the odds for the Senate look right, maybe slightly too bullish for Democrats, but the odds for the House are really overvaluing the GOP's chances. I don't even think the GOP would give itself a 37 percent chance at winning the House. I may have to place a bet on that.

 

[Voldemort86 2259]

24 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

https://www.predictit.org/markets/2/Congress

 

Interestingly, the odds for Democrats retaking the Senate are currently the same as the odds for Republicans retaking the House.

To me, the odds for the Senate look right, maybe slightly too bullish for Democrats, but the odds for the House are really overvaluing the GOP's chances. I don't even think the GOP would give itself a 37 percent chance at winning the House. I may have to place a bet on that.

 

The house market was moving up a lot in favor of repubs over the last few weeks because it looked like Bernie was going to be the nominee.

biden brings stability to the top of the ticket. Dems will keep the house now, Texas Dems will compete for state house, we will compete for the senate majority. 
 

biden brings a lot of things to the table that Sanders doesn’t. The youth and politically disengaged just haven’t turned out for Sanders, but the blacks showed up to vote for Biden BIG TIME.

Edited March 5, 2020 by Voldemort86

[Zonahorn 8079]

Yeeeesssssss

[kevwun 16439]

Susan Collins is going to find the election returns on the night November 3rd very concerning.

[Ghost of LL 15698]

28 minutes ago, Calihorn said:

Yeeeesssssss

You know--it's irrational given that it's not really supported by very much data.  But for some reason I just feel so much better about Arizona than I do about Maine.

Well, that's not true.  There is a rational reason.  McSally has never been elected to shit and she just lost a statewide contest to a candidate who, on balance, probably isn't quite as good as Kelly.  Collins, in contrast, has won and is a legitimate incumbent.

[SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3873]

7 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

You know--it's irrational given that it's not really supported by very much data.  But for some reason I just feel so much better about Arizona than I do about Maine.

Well, that's not true.  There is a rational reason.  McSally has never been elected to shit and she just lost a statewide contest to a candidate who, on balance, probably isn't quite as good as Kelly.  Collins, in contrast, has won and is a legitimate incumbent.

1) I think there is no such thing as bad press too.  Collins is front and center of everything.  Sheer name recognition has to be peak. 
2) McSally gives of too much of a cheap imitation of Trump vibe (“I’m not talking to you, you’re a liberal hack”). To the extent the prevailing winds is a return to normalcy, Collins projects that better.  

[Zonahorn 8079]

20 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

You know--it's irrational given that it's not really supported by very much data.  But for some reason I just feel so much better about Arizona than I do about Maine.

Well, that's not true.  There is a rational reason.  McSally has never been elected to shit and she just lost a statewide contest to a candidate who, on balance, probably isn't quite as good as Kelly.  Collins, in contrast, has won and is a legitimate incumbent.

In order for McSally to win, she would have to convince several hundred thousand people that just voted against her, to vote for her. The race this year in AZ reminds me of the Nevada race last year.

[The Dog 44861]

I still think Texas is a long shot, but I think Beto woke a lot of people up, myself included.  I think we will see a lot of MJ (or whatever dem) votes as part of a Beto backlash.  I still don't think it will be enough to win, but it will be relatively close.  At least that's what I tell myself.

Beto did well because Cruz is a raging asshole. His stances on the issues was just too far to the left for Texas.

Cronyn isn’t a raging asshole, so he should get re-elected easily. Sucks because MJ looks like a great candidate.

[Ghost of LL 15698]

2 minutes ago, The Dog said:

 

Beto did well because Cruz is a raging asshole. His stances on the issues was just too far to the left for Texas.

Cronyn isn’t a raging asshole, so he should get re-elected easily. Sucks because MJ looks like a great candidate.

 

Cornyn is a raging asshole.  He is just better at hiding it.

But that goes back to my previous point about campaigning.  I think he's going to have to run a campaign.  And campaigns have a way of exposing assholery.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13733]

I agree that who knows what will happen in Maine with Collins. Seems like a very unique and small state that won't follow any conventional wisdom. There is a real they keep electing someone as odd as her.  and I mean odd by her statements and voting record.

Bullock in Montana is bad news for the GOP. Even if Bullock loses, this adds to the cost for the GOP to defend a seat.

I know that every 4 years is called the most important election ever but I really see this as a perfect storm of divisive politics, SCOTUS up for grabs in the next 4 years, reallocation of EV and gerrymandering, and the US House and Senate could go either way.  The November results could set the stage for the next 10 years.

[Bama Chick 28596]

More of this please!!!

Tuberville’s newest ad for the upcoming runoff -

These next three weeks are gonna be messy as fuck.