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2020 Senate Elections

Patrick Bateman

By Patrick Bateman
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Bateshorn

Bateshorn 9882

Posted
Posted

Agreed.  If you can recruit candidates  who do their own fundraising (ala Beto) in deep long shot states to force the GOP to defend more territory, you do it.

With the end of the judicial filibuster, 50+Presidency is much more important than it used to be.   With Rehnquist establishing the acceptability of a justice refusing to give up a seat, despite bad health, saving RGB's seat is the most important thing to the Democrats after winning the white house.

Any seats beyond ME, AZ, CO, NC + Presidency are extra cherries. 

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89361

Posted
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1 hour ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Trumps team knows that the senate won’t be able to withstand the shutdown for much longer, hence his speech last night and his visit to Texas today.   He has to gin up some public support and find ways to buy off the Dems.

personally I think he will be forced to declare a national emergency knowing full well the courts will nullify it.  He can turn that into a win by calling out the Obama judges that are making laws.   

If it weren’t for right-wing talking heads, I think Trump would have offered DACA.  But Coulter, Rush, Ingraham, etc. would crucify him.  Not to mention Miller would be whispering in his ear.  

So I am also leaning towards him declaring an emergency, knowing it gets struck down, but he gets to tell his followers he tried.  

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89361

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Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Trump has zero interest reopening the government.  This has been clear for a while. 

If Mitch tells him he’s going to put a bill through and Trump could face a veto override, he would   

Mitch can only carry Trump’s water as long as the other Senate Republicans allow him to be their leader.

There’s plenty of public Republican grumbling.  This will be ended within two weeks.  

Edited by atomheartbevo
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Hugo Stiglitz

Hugo Stiglitz 23356

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 minute ago, atomheartbevo said:

If Mitch tells him he’s going to put a bill through and Trump could face a veto override, he would

Mitch is up for re-election in 2020.  Turning on Trump isn’t in his best political interest.

Edited by Hugo Stiglitz
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atomheartbevo

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Posted
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2 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Mitch is up for re-election in 2020.  Turning on Trump isn’t in his best political interest.

Mitch (or any Republican for that matter)  ain’t going to be Senate Majority Leader come 2021.  

And Mitch is owning this shutdown as much as Trump.  

And there’s tens of thousands of Kentuckians on the federal payroll, or who rely on it.  

Mitch doesn’t have a choice.  He will have to suck it up, watch his wife get fired by Trump, and try and salvage his career.  

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Patrick Bateman

Patrick Bateman 3903

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Posted (edited)
12 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

If Mitch tells him he’s going to put a bill through and Trump could face a veto override, he would   

Mitch can only carry Trump’s water as long as the other Senate Republicans allow him to be their leader.

There’s plenty of public Republican grumbling.  This will be ended within two weeks.  

Trump's play seems to be coming into focus.  After his photoshoot today and in the coming days (probably by next week), he'll announce after seeing the border "crisis" in person, he's announcing a state of emergency around the Southern border and will begin taking funds from defense to build his wall.  As such, he will not allow the Democrats to hold hostage the budget anymore as he's found a solution to this "crisis" and will sign a clean CR bill.  He will frame this as he is saving the government shutdown from the D's and only he could do this.

His state of emergency will immediately hit the courts and eventually be defeated but that will buy him time and allow him to push blame..... it's the judicial's fault!!!!  An activist judge, probably an Obama appointment, won't let your wall be built.   We need more conservative judges and we can only do this by voting R and voting for Trump.  Save the Senate!!!

End of story.  He gets public cover for taking the loss on the shutdown and gets to craft a narrative around his loss.

BTW, don't be surprised if we hear about some savage or disgusting murder in the news by an undocumented person get a huge national push.

 

Edited by Patrick Bateman
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Hugo Stiglitz

Hugo Stiglitz 23356

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3 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Mitch (or any Republican for that matter)  ain’t going to be Senate Majority Leader come 2021.  

And Mitch is owning this shutdown as much as Trump.  

And there’s tens of thousands of Kentuckians on the federal payroll, or who rely on it.  

Mitch doesn’t have a choice.  He will have to suck it up, watch his wife get fired by Trump, and try and salvage his career.  

I hope you’re right, I really do.

but I’ve seen this movie before.  

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89361

Posted
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22 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Seems to me Trump’s best play is to drag this shit out as long as possible.

 

20 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

I hope you’re right, I really do.

but I’ve seen this movie before.  

Republicans in Congress care more about keeping their constituents satisfied and their lobbyists happy than appeasing Trump.  The longer the shutdown goes, the. more both groups get pissed off.

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Hugo Stiglitz

Hugo Stiglitz 23356

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3 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Joni Ernst has either been very quiet lately or ignored by the media.   My guess is that she wants to toe the gop line but not one looked upon as a leader in the shutdown. 

When she declared her re-election campaign on Twitter I told her no one should vote for her again after Kavanaugh.  

Whoever her opponent is should push that button hard AF. 

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Js1

Js1 85055

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Posted (edited)
6 hours ago, Patrick Bateman said:

 

Collins - incumbency is an advantage, but sometimes not when you are completely at odds with your constituency (see 2018 Democratic Senate losses in red states).  Color me surprised, because I figured Mills and Golden winning in Maine would have her worried and if she has some grand ambition to challenge Mills in 2022, she's losing her entire leverage with a 2020 loss.  Rank choice voting may become a factor in this one.

Gardner - sorry, this dude is Dean Heller fucked.  Trumpy Senator in an increasingly blue state. A lot of good candidates.

Ernst - Iowa was almost a double digit win for Trump in 2016.  But 3/4 Congressional districts went blue in 2018; but the GOP governor pulled it out as well.  Weird state.  Dunno about this one at all.  Don't know who runs - Vislack could just be Bredesen or Bayh 2.0; the new Dem. congresspersons are raw (would rather save them for 2022 against Old Man Grassley or an open seat); the other statewide Democrats who won are pretty green.

Tillis - he barely won in a wave year and NC is a weird state.  It's heavily gerrymandered (Dems won the popular vote in the state in 2018 but didn't make up much ground in the House representation), but that doesn't affect the Senate.  Some polling yesterday showed the Dem governor up on all of his potential opponents, including Tillis.  This one might require Gov. Cooper to drag a Senate candidate across the finish line with him.

McSally - I also think this bitch is fucked.  She was rejected 3 months ago and is now a Senator by default.  I think that won't sit well with some people.  Kelli Ward will most definitely 100% primary her and tag her as a big loser who lost to a bisexual, atheist, former Green Party protestor.  This is the kind of race where Mark Kelly could jump in but I definitely prefer Ruben Gallego.

Perdue - ugh, please Stacy Abrams, jump into this race.  End of story.

Edited by Js1
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Js1

Js1 85055

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Posted
10 minutes ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

AZ is R+5?

It is! And Trump only won it by 4.1.

It's not an impossible state to target and the Dems should target at the presidential level in the tier below Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania.

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Js1

Js1 85055

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7 minutes ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

 What do you do that you’re so well informed on all this stuff? 

Have no life, obviously. I don't get to use much of my degree field in my job, so it's just a hobby now.

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Js1

Js1 85055

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2 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

Let me guess, poly sic degree but matriculated into a totally different field?

Similar but different enough that my concentration in campaigns/polling isn't useful except every 2 years

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Js1

Js1 85055

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100% the GOP senators will cave.  Why?
 

Quote

 

Does (your Republican Senator’s) support of President Trump’s plan to keep the government closed if he doesn’t get funding for a border wall make you more or less likely to support her/him in his next election, or does it not make a difference?

Alaska (Sullivan): 41% more likely; 50% less likely

Arizona (McSally): 37% more likely; 50% less likely

Colorado (Gardner): 37% more likely; 49% less likely

Georgia (Perdue): 41% more likely; 51% less likely

Iowa (Ernst): 37% more likely; 49% less likely

Maine (Collins): 32% more likely; 53% less likely

North Carolina (Tillis): 42% more likely; 48% less likely

 

 

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Ghost of LL

Ghost of LL 15348

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What the fuck is Jodi Ernst doing?

It's increasingly apparent that Iowa is going to be the GOP's Alamo.  They're going to lose Maine and Colorado, and they're probably going to lose Arizona since they've stuck themselves to McSally.  But if they can somehow win Iowa and the presidency, they'll retain the Senate.

So what the fuck in Jodi Ernst doing to retain her seat right now?  Fucking nothing?  Farmers are getting killed by the shutdown, and she's completely absent.  

I guess she's banking on the notion that people will have forgotten about all this by November 2020.  But I'm not sure that's going to happen when people are being hurt as bad as a lot of farmers are, and the cause of that pain is so readily identifiable.

Oh, and by the way--San Sullivan in Alaska may have a similar problem.

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GopherRock

GopherRock 1765

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Not sure what to make of the farmers. Maybe my sample size is fouled, but the ones I know in southern MN are pretty dug in on their MAGA stance, bins full of rotting soybeans notwithstanding.

One unexpected benefit of rock-bottom prices of corn and soybeans is a surge in spring wheat planting (up 40% in Minnesota from 2017 to 2018), and a return to three-year crop rotation.

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Doc Sam Beckett

Doc Sam Beckett 5781

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On 1/10/2019 at 5:55 AM, Js1 said:

Collins - incumbency is an advantage, but sometimes not when you are completely at odds with your constituency (see 2018 Democratic Senate losses in red states).  Color me surprised, because I figured Mills and Golden winning in Maine would have her worried and if she has some grand ambition to challenge Mills in 2022, she's losing her entire leverage with a 2020 loss.  Rank choice voting may become a factor in this one.

Gardner - sorry, this dude is Dean Heller fucked.  Trumpy Senator in an increasingly blue state. A lot of good candidates.

Ernst - Iowa was almost a double digit win for Trump in 2016.  But 3/4 Congressional districts went blue in 2018; but the GOP governor pulled it out as well.  Weird state.  Dunno about this one at all.  Don't know who runs - Vislack could just be Bredesen or Bayh 2.0; the new Dem. congresspersons are raw (would rather save them for 2022 against Old Man Grassley or an open seat); the other statewide Democrats who won are pretty green.

Tillis - he barely won in a wave year and NC is a weird state.  It's heavily gerrymandered (Dems won the popular vote in the state in 2018 but didn't make up much ground in the House representation), but that doesn't affect the Senate.  Some polling yesterday showed the Dem governor up on all of his potential opponents, including Tillis.  This one might require Gov. Cooper to drag a Senate candidate across the finish line with him.

McSally - I also think this bitch is fucked.  She was rejected 3 months ago and is now a Senator by default.  I think that won't sit well with some people.  Kelli Ward will most definitely 100% primary her and tag her as a big loser who lost to a bisexual, atheist, former Green Party protestor.  This is the kind of race where Mark Kelly could jump in but I definitely prefer Ruben Gallego.

Perdue - ugh, please Stacy Abrams, jump into this race.  End of story.

 

I actually think North Carolina will go blue, and it won't be as close as the races in Arizona and Iowa. 

 

Side not, but how is Wyoming R+47 (holy fuck) and Montana R+17 when decisions regarding the environment are so critical to those states? That's possibly my biggest issue.....does not compute. 

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Parliament

Parliament 14111

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Not sure what to make of the farmers. Maybe my sample size is fouled, but the ones I know in southern MN are pretty dug in on their MAGA stance, bins full of rotting soybeans notwithstanding.
One unexpected benefit of rock-bottom prices of corn and soybeans is a surge in spring wheat planting (up 40% in Minnesota from 2017 to 2018), and a return to three-year crop rotation.
Farmers are definitely supporting President Trump. And the "crops rotting in the field/bin" narrative is incorrect.
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Pescado_Rojo

Pescado_Rojo 19327

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31 minutes ago, Doc Sam Beckett said:

 

I actually think North Carolina will go blue, and it won't be as close as the races in Arizona and Iowa. 

 

Side not, but how is Wyoming R+47 (holy fuck) and Montana R+17 when decisions regarding the environment are so critical to those states? That's possibly my biggest issue.....does not compute. 

Quote

Wyoming's population in 2019 is estimated at 568,125, up slightly from the 2010 Census. It's currently enjoying a healthy growth rate of 1.13%, which ranks 15th among all 50 states. 

Quote

The estimated 2019 population is 1.07 million, making Montana the 44th most populous state. The state has reflected a moderate growth rate of 0.79%, which ranks 26th in the nation. The US Census of 2010 confirmed that 989,415 people were living in Montana, an increase of 9.7% from the findings of 2000.

4 senators represent 1.5MM people total. 

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ruitxn

ruitxn 295

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34 minutes ago, Parliament said:
On 1/21/2019 at 9:17 PM, GopherRock said:
Not sure what to make of the farmers. Maybe my sample size is fouled, but the ones I know in southern MN are pretty dug in on their MAGA stance, bins full of rotting soybeans notwithstanding.
One unexpected benefit of rock-bottom prices of corn and soybeans is a surge in spring wheat planting (up 40% in Minnesota from 2017 to 2018), and a return to three-year crop rotation.

Farmers are definitely supporting President Trump. And the "crops rotting in the field/bin" narrative is incorrect.

Uh..subsidy?

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berlinerbaer

berlinerbaer 670

Posted
Posted (edited)

Some AL Republican wants to run against Doug Jones in 2020 and attacked him on Facebook by instead attacking Kyrsten Sinema for inappropriate senatorial attire.

Makes sense...

https://www.facebook.com/ZeiglerWasteCutter/photos/a.1411690772405654/2266037846970938/?type=3&theater

 

50713189_2266037850304271_53537089896683

 

and would

Edited by berlinerbaer
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JimmyJames

JimmyJames 12271

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8 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Dead man walking 

Yep. He’s done and he knows it. This is just a Hail Mary from someone who has absolutely no other choice. At this point his only hope is a russia led hack that steals the election for him. So this is what he’s going with.

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Doc Sam Beckett

Doc Sam Beckett 5781

Posted
Posted
On 1/29/2019 at 12:05 PM, berlinerbaer said:

Some AL Republican wants to run against Doug Jones in 2020 and attacked him on Facebook by instead attacking Kyrsten Sinema for inappropriate senatorial attire.

Makes sense...

https://www.facebook.com/ZeiglerWasteCutter/photos/a.1411690772405654/2266037846970938/?type=3&theater

 

50713189_2266037850304271_53537089896683

 

and would

Come to butthead

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Js1

Js1 85055

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Posted

Grant Woods (former Republican turned Democrat) is OUT of the 2020 race for McSally's seat.

Now we can get a real Democrat to run (Gallego) - also a service member, so blunts McSally's repeated reminders of her service.

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Guest Lobo

Guest Lobo

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Posted

Pete was talking recently about running for Senate against Cornyn, thought maybe this was related.  I didn't scroll up very far to the business about AZ.  It's not very nice to make jokes about brain damage. 

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Bama Chick

Bama Chick 28596

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Jamie Harrison was a guest on “Pod Save America” when they were on the road in Charleston this week and he announced he’s starting an exploratory committee to run as a Democrat for Lindsey Graham’s seat in 2020.

“It’s time to send Lindsey Graham home. All he cares about is being in front of cameras and microphones. I’ll set those up for him in his house and he can go back to Seneca and talk to them all he wants and let someone who wants to work for the people of South Carolina be our senator.”

When asked why he thought Graham did such an about face, going from calling Trump a dangerous bigoted kook to becoming his biggest sycophant cheerleader, he said he didn’t know but slyly alluded to Trump having some kind of dirt on him.

I’d never heard Harrison speak before but I was impressed with what I heard. I hope he’s successful. Being African American should help energize the black vote and with 30% of the population, a high turnout makes that success a real possibility.



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