2020 Senate Elections

[Zonahorn 8079]

7 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

Yeah--I really don't understand what possessed them to pick her immediately after the voters said they don't want her.  I mean, I like Kyrsten Sinema as much as anyone.  But don't tell me that she's a stronger candidate than Mark Kelly.  She's just not. 

To be fair to Kyrsten, Kelly is probably the best candidate in the state's history, but yeah, Mark Kelly is a fucking rock star.

[gmr548 16602]

 

10 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

Yeah--I really don't understand what possessed them to pick her immediately after the voters said they don't want her.  I mean, I like Kyrsten Sinema as much as anyone.  But don't tell me that she's a stronger candidate than Mark Kelly.  She's just not. 

This. I don't really know many details about AZ politics, but I know the Democrats had to win a big majority of independent voters to get a W there. So the GOP's answer to win those voters back is... Not only to trot out the same candidate they already rejected, but to hand her a Senate seat after losing. And they think she can hold the seat against probably the strongest challenger in any of the Senate races? Okay.gif

I've been hesitant to put AZ in the D column but it is starting to look really good.

Edited April 14, 2020 by gmr548

[Voldemort86 2259]

2 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

 

This. I don't really know many details about AZ politics, but I know the Democrats had to win a big majority of independent voters to get a W there. So the GOP's answer to win those voters back is... Not only to trot out the same candidate they already rejected, but to hand her a Senate seat after losing. And they think she can hold the seat against probably the strongest challenger in any of the Senate races? Okay.gif

I've been hesitant to put AZ in the D column but it is starting to look really good.

The hope is that Kelly not only takes the senate seat from Mcstinky, but he also helps pull Biden over the line against trump in that state as well.

 

winning Arizona would mean Biden could keep all Hilary states ( pretty easy), flip Pennsylvania ( Biden’s home town roots), flip Michigan ( Clinton lost by a few thousand and blacks didn’t show up at all) and that’s game, set, match.

 

 

[Zonahorn 8079]

5 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

 

This. I don't really know many details about AZ politics, but I know the Democrats had to win a big majority of independent voters to get a W there. So the GOP's answer to win those voters back is... Not only to trot out the same candidate they already rejected, but to hand her a Senate seat after losing. And they think she can hold the seat against probably the strongest challenger in any of the Senate races? Okay.gif

I've been hesitant to put AZ in the D column but it is starting to look really good.

I couldn't tell you why the GOP in this state picked her. I've heard they didn't have better options (with her primary opponents being chemtrails Kelli and Sherrif Joe) or that McConnell really like McSally. Whatever it was, it was poor decision making.

[Message Board User 12396]

Arizona - high number of Hispanics and lots of folks fleeing California and other blue states.  That's why the Dems are taking over Phoenix, which means they're taking over Arizona.

 

[gmr548 16602]

2 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

The hope is that Kelly not only takes the senate seat from Mcstinky, but he also helps pull Biden over the line against trump in that state as well.

 

winning Arizona would mean Biden could keep all Hilary states ( pretty easy), flip Pennsylvania ( Biden’s home town roots), flip Michigan ( Clinton lost by a few thousand and blacks didn’t show up at all) and that’s game, set, match.

 

 

Or it could lead to a nightmare scenario where Biden picks WI and MI back up, but Trump holds PA, his strongest of the three midwestern states. 269-269. Ds control the House but Rs have 26 state delegations, so its a Trump W without a popular vote or EC majority. I'd put nothing past 2020 at this point.

Of course, agree with your sentiment though. Trump does not have the margin of error to drop a state like AZ or NC. 

 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13521]

1 hour ago, gmr548 said:

Or it could lead to a nightmare scenario where Biden picks WI and MI back up, but Trump holds PA, his strongest of the three midwestern states. 269-269. Ds control the House but Rs have 26 state delegations, so its a Trump W without a popular vote or EC majority. I'd put nothing past 2020 at this point.

Of course, agree with your sentiment though. Trump does not have the margin of error to drop a state like AZ or NC. 

 

Faithless electors would be interesting twist if neither get majority.

[Voldemort86 2259]

1 hour ago, gmr548 said:

Or it could lead to a nightmare scenario where Biden picks WI and MI back up, but Trump holds PA, his strongest of the three midwestern states. 269-269. Ds control the House but Rs have 26 state delegations, so its a Trump W without a popular vote or EC majority. I'd put nothing past 2020 at this point.

Of course, agree with your sentiment though. Trump does not have the margin of error to drop a state like AZ or NC. 

 

For some reason, I think the one Biden is most likely to lose of the 4 ( Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Arizona ) is Wisconsin. 
 

Michigan will go dem. I have no doubt.

arizona seems to be getting better for team blue by the day.

pennsylvania still seems like a likely blue state to me. The GOP got clobbered here in 2018.

wisconsin republicans are dirty, nasty skunks and I wouldn’t put anything past those rotten people. I think this state will be the toughest for Biden and the Dems.

[JimmyJames 12271]

7 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

For some reason, I think the one Biden is most likely to lose of the 4 ( Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Arizona ) is Wisconsin. 
 

Michigan will go dem. I have no doubt.

arizona seems to be getting better for team blue by the day.

pennsylvania still seems like a likely blue state to me. The GOP got clobbered here in 2018.

wisconsin republicans are dirty, nasty skunks and I wouldn’t put anything past those rotten people. I think this state will be the toughest for Biden and the Dems.

A democratic Wisconsin Supreme Court justice just won the state by 10 percentage points over a Republican candidate trump gave his stupid ass “complete and total endorsement.”  Judge races like that break down completely on partisan lines and never have anything to do with the candidates themselves. Trump is done in Wisconsin.

[Aqua Buddha 14600]

14 hours ago, JimmyJames said:

A democratic Wisconsin Supreme Court justice just won the state by 10 percentage points over a Republican candidate trump gave his stupid ass “complete and total endorsement.”  Judge races like that break down completely on partisan lines and never have anything to do with the candidates themselves. Trump is done in Wisconsin.

The Republican candidate got destroyed in swing districts, too.  I, too, was skeptical of Sconsin but that was until a bunch of people stood in the cold 4 hours during a pandemic to vote against the Republicans.  

[GopherRock 1765]

I was also skeptical of the cheeseheads, but they came through when it mattered. I suspect that there was much "I'm willing to crawl over glass to vote these assholes out" sentiment. 

Something I just thought of: how much trouble is Richard Burr in with the law? I doubt much with Bill Barr in charge of the DoJ, but you never know. This is one that could pop up between now and then. 

[Ghost of LL 15539]

2 hours ago, GopherRock said:

I was also skeptical of the cheeseheads, but they came through when it mattered. I suspect that there was much "I'm willing to crawl over glass to vote these assholes out" sentiment. 

Something I just thought of: how much trouble is Richard Burr in with the law? I doubt much with Bill Barr in charge of the DoJ, but you never know. This is one that could pop up between now and then. 

With Bob Barr as AG, none whatsoever.

The much better question comes in 2021, when Kamala Harris is AG and Burr still has two years left on his term.  The Democratic governor is running for re-election against the Republican Lt. Governor.  I think Cooper (D) is generally expected to win, and if he does, he would name Burr's successor if Burr were forced to resign.

Incidentally, that's an interesting gubernatorial election.  Forest (R) was the architect of North Carolina's bathroom bill, and generally isn't terribly popular.  He's trailed in every poll (and generally by pretty large margins).  But North Carolina is a swing state, so who knows.

[Dnaguy 12044]

20 hours ago, gmr548 said:

Or it could lead to a nightmare scenario where Biden picks WI and MI back up, but Trump holds PA, his strongest of the three midwestern states. 269-269. Ds control the House but Rs have 26 state delegations, so its a Trump W without a popular vote or EC majority. I'd put nothing past 2020 at this point.

Of course, agree with your sentiment though. Trump does not have the margin of error to drop a state like AZ or NC. 

 

Yeah... but maybe he wins the Omaha electoral vote in Nebraska... and wins 271-268.

That would be fun, wouldn’t it?

[gmr548 16602]

With Bob Barr as AG, none whatsoever.
The much better question comes in 2021, when Kamala Harris is AG and Burr still has two years left on his term.  The Democratic governor is running for re-election against the Republican Lt. Governor.  I think Cooper (D) is generally expected to win, and if he does, he would name Burr's successor if Burr were forced to resign.
Incidentally, that's an interesting gubernatorial election.  Forest ® was the architect of North Carolina's bathroom bill, and generally isn't terribly popular.  He's trailed in every poll (and generally by pretty large margins).  But North Carolina is a swing state, so who knows.

Cooper has approval in the mid-high 50s, and while he obviously won on the backlash over the bathroom bill, and just barely got by at that, he did run ahead of Hillary Clinton. NC is probably the single state, maybe aside from PA, that Biden looks to be a significant improvement vs other Democrats as well. That can only help.

Never know in a swing state but I don't see an obvious reason for him not to be a slight favorite.

[henrygandorf 29194]

22 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

Cooper has approval in the mid-high 50s, and while he obviously won on the backlash over the bathroom bill, and just barely got by at that, he did run ahead of Hillary Clinton. NC is probably the single state, maybe aside from PA, that Biden looks to be a significant improvement vs other Democrats as well. That can only help.

Never know in a swing state but I don't see an obvious reason for him not to be a slight favorite.

i need to find where i read it, but apparently north carolina is one of those mathematical anomalies where if it goes blue, a couple of the other swing states won't matter.  no other state with similar # of ev has that type of effect.

[Ghost of LL 15539]

12 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

i need to find where i read it, but apparently north carolina is one of those mathematical anomalies where if it goes blue, a couple of the other swing states won't matter.  no other state with similar # of ev has that type of effect.

Well--and I apologize for getting us onto presidential politics in the Senate thread--I think the point is twofold:

1) North Carolina has 15 votes.  If it goes blue, then Biden could lose Wisconsin (10 votes) and still win so long as he wins Michigan and Pennsylvania.

2) North Carolina behaves a lot like Arizona and Florida.  If North Carolina goes for Biden, it probably reflects a shift that isn't unique to North Carolina and indicates that Biden is going to win Florida and Arizona.  And were that to happen, nobody would give a shit about Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Minnesota, or Ohio (a bit of hyperbole there, but you get the point).

[henrygandorf 29194]

23 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

Well--and I apologize for getting us onto presidential politics in the Senate thread--I think the point is twofold:

1) North Carolina has 15 votes.  If it goes blue, then Biden could lose Wisconsin (10 votes) and still win so long as he wins Michigan and Pennsylvania.

that's the general idea pretty much.  but it was something to the tune of "there are 6 states, and to win the election, biden would need to win 4 of them, unless one is north carolina, then 3 would be enough" or some such.

[gmr548 16602]

that's the general idea pretty much.  but it was something to the tune of "there are 6 states, and to win the election, biden would need to win 4 of them, unless one is north carolina, then 3 would be enough" or some such.

NC is critical to Trump's path to victory. Without it, he has to sweep the Midwest trio again (unlikely as a collective), and as LL pointed out, it opens other Democratic avenues - and would likely be the first domino to fall there.

[Message Board User 12396]

1 hour ago, henrygandorf said:

i need to find where i read it, but apparently north carolina is one of those mathematical anomalies where if it goes blue, a couple of the other swing states won't matter.  no other state with similar # of ev has that type of effect.

Tipping point state?

[Bama Chick 28596]

Nice.

[berlinerbaer 678]

On 4/14/2020 at 6:35 PM, Calihorn said:

I couldn't tell you why the GOP in this state picked her. I've heard they didn't have better options (with her primary opponents being chemtrails Kelli and Sherrif Joe) or that McConnell really like McSally. Whatever it was, it was poor decision making.

Arizona Republicans are having a hard time recruiting candidates for statewide office. McSally is still better than any alternatives, even with the L against Sinema.

I'd keep an eye on the governor, Ducey. He's by far the most viable R candidate for a future senate bid. Unfortunately for him, he will likely have to run against a Dem incumbent.

[Patrick Bateman 3918]

Zona...

 

[Voldemort86 2259]

2 hours ago, berlinerbaer said:

Arizona Republicans are having a hard time recruiting candidates for statewide office. McSally is still better than any alternatives, even with the L against Sinema.

I'd keep an eye on the governor, Ducey. He's by far the most viable R candidate for a future senate bid. Unfortunately for him, he will likely have to run against a Dem incumbent.

Just gotta hope Ducey isn’t interested in the senate. He’s already won 2 statewide races in Arizona. He won in 2018 easily, but it was a similar race to the Texas Governor race.

the democrats put up TERRIBLE candidates in both Texas and Arizona. Even some democrats were turned off and didn’t vote for those people. 

[kevwun 15855]

Lindsey is officially fucking nervous.  First he said Trump needed to limit his press conferences to once a week, now he's saying we need to do more testing.  Apparently the only thing that could make him grow a spine was the threat of losing his Senate seat.

Edited April 16, 2020 by kevwun

[Voldemort86 2259]

1 hour ago, kevwun said:

Lindsey is officially fucking nervous.  First he said Trump needed to limit his press conferences to once a week, now he's saying we need to do more testing.  Apparently the only thing that could make him grow a spine was the threat of losing his Senate seat.

That little pussy will never grow a spine. He’s so far up trumps ass that I’m surprised he can still see well enough to walk around the room.

[DigglerontheHoof 21212]

Lindsey will be another stop on my Piss on the Graves of Traitors tour.  Gonna be an awesome motorcycle trip. 

[Gap03 3310]

54 minutes ago, DigglerontheHoof said:

Lindsey will be another stop on my Piss on the Graves of Traitors tour.  Gonna be an awesome motorcycle trip. 

This concept intrigues me.  Might I offer a some potential stops on the tour of "SEC SEC SEC" country:

• Ted Cruz (Houston)
• Louie Gohmert (East Texas)
• Tom Cotton (AR)
• Marsha Blackburn (TN)
• Mitch McConnell, Rand Paul and Thomas Massie (KY)
• Newt Gingrich (VA)
• Richard Burr (NC)
• Lindsey Graham (SC)
• Doug Collins, Brian Kemp and Kelly Loeffler (GA) 
• Matt Gaetz and Rush Limbaugh (FL)
• Jeff Sessions (AL)
• Cindy Hyde-Smith (MS)
• John Kennedy (LA)

I understand you might say that's a lot of pissing, but there are a lot of shitty fucking representatives in SEC country.  Would you really want to miss any of these graves if you were close by?  I think not.  Of course, there are a fair number of these assholes that probably won't die any time soon, but we can dream, right?

Edited April 16, 2020 by Gap03
Updated to add Newt at NameAlreadyInUse's request

[NameAlreadyInUse 5114]

You forgot Newt Gingrich, man.  

[Gap03 3310]

3 minutes ago, NameAlreadyInUse said:

You forgot Newt Gingrich, man.  

Fair point - I was going to leave Newt out given he lives in northern VA, but agree that he's worth a bit of extra driving ...

[NameAlreadyInUse 5114]

I still think of him as standard Georgia trash.

[Bama Chick 28596]

Alabama needs another one.

I humbly submit Roy Moore.

It came out today he’s been exposed to coronavirus because he was in a rebel congregation in Louisiana a couple of weeks ago.

He could be the first stop.

[DigglerontheHoof 21212]

28 minutes ago, Bama Chick said:

Alabama needs another one.

I humbly submit Roy Moore.

It came out today he’s been exposed to coronavirus because he was in a rebel congregation in Louisiana a couple of weeks ago.

He could be the first stop.

Why the hell not.  So be it. 

[Ghost of LL 15539]

1 hour ago, Gap03 said:

Fair point - I was going to leave Newt out given he lives in northern VA, but agree that he's worth a bit of extra driving ...

Right now he lives in Rome.  His wife is ambassador to the Vatican City State.

[tx 3 putt 77329]

2 hours ago, Ghost of LL said:

Right now he lives in Rome.  His wife is ambassador to the Vatican City State.

Fuck that douche. Newt, not the pope. Love the pope 

Edited April 17, 2020 by tx 3 putt

[Message Board User 12396]

 

[Zonahorn 8079]

On 4/15/2020 at 9:07 PM, berlinerbaer said:

Arizona Republicans are having a hard time recruiting candidates for statewide office. McSally is still better than any alternatives, even with the L against Sinema.

I'd keep an eye on the governor, Ducey. He's by far the most viable R candidate for a future senate bid. Unfortunately for him, he will likely have to run against a Dem incumbent.

Ducey is their best option, I don't know if he would want to put in the effort for it, especially since Demographics are trending away from republicans here.

[gmr548 16602]

1 hour ago, Message Board User said:

 

IA is weird. You can hardly find a Presidential approval poll where Trump isn't well underwater. Yet he is ahead in every general election poll, mostly comfortably. Very little senate polling but Ernst appears to basically track with him. 

[cactusflinthead 27601]

On 4/16/2020 at 3:04 PM, kevwun said:

Lindsey is officially fucking nervous.  First he said Trump needed to limit his press conferences to once a week, now he's saying we need to do more testing.  Apparently the only thing that could make him grow a spine was the threat of losing his Senate seat.

That's the only thing that moves most of them. A few on the way out don't give a shit what he thinks, but the rest of them know that there may come a point where they have to distance to keep the gig. Not sure if it is going to work. 

[Message Board User 12396]

 

Edited April 18, 2020 by Message Board User

[Voldemort86 2259]

Fundraising is going well for Dems.

its hard to see the republicans fund raising in quarter 2 going much better when their numbers were already anemic as hell after quarter 1 and they’ve already lost the first month of this quarter because of the virus.

 

 

[Wulaw Horn 19147]

Here’s the interesting question about the senate races in light of 2016- does it even matter who the candidate is. In 2016 there was not a single split ticket. In 2018 the races went the way of the state presidential up/down at that moment in time  I don’t get the sense we are electing senators all that much anymore- but rather parties to Senate seats in those states.  

I want to see a couple more polls before I decide if this is a new rule or merely something happening right now, but my sense is that these senate polls say less about any individual senate matchup and more about the smooth buttfucking coming Trumps way in November. 

Edited April 18, 2020 by Wulaw Horn

[Zonahorn 8079]

8 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Here’s the interesting question about the senate races in light of 2016- does it even matter who the candidate is. In 2016 there was not a single split ticket. In 2018 the races went the way of the state presidential up/down at that moment in time  I don’t get the sense we are electing senators all that much anymore- but rather parties to Senate seats in those states.  

I want to see a couple more polls before I decide if this is a new rule or merely something happening right now, but my sense is that these senate polls say less about any individual senate matchup and more about the smooth buttfucking coming Trumps way in November. 

I don't know all that much about every state, but in AZ there was loads of ticket-splitting With Ducey crushing (fuck, his opponent was so irrelevant I can't even remember their name) while Synema eked out a win. Same thing happened in Texas with Cruz just barely beating Beto, while Hotwheels cruised to re-election.

[Wulaw Horn 19147]

6 minutes ago, Calihorn said:

I don't know all that much about every state, but in AZ there was loads of ticket-splitting With Ducey crushing (fuck, his opponent was so irrelevant I can't even remember their name) while Synema eked out a win. Same thing happened in Texas with Cruz just barely beating Beto, while Hotwheels cruised to re-election.

No- I meant between senate and president not senate and governor. Sorry I wasn’t clear. And I was referencing 2018 in the sense the senate went to whichever party I thought would likely win the state if a presidential were held that year- except Montana. 

Also o said I’d want to see a couple more polls but I meant elections. This is a theory for me but I need to see elections through 2024 before I will think my view is accurate. 

 

[Zonahorn 8079]

7 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

No- I meant between senate and president not senate and governor. Sorry I wasn’t clear. And I was referencing 2018 in the sense the senate went to whichever party I thought would likely win the state if a presidential were held that year- except Montana. 

Also o said I’d want to see a couple more polls but I meant elections. This is a theory for me but I need to see elections through 2024 before I will think my view is accurate. 

 

You think Joe Biden could win WV? 

 

I get your point now though, I agree that federal level election have less ticket-splitting than state and local elections.

[Wulaw Horn 19147]

37 minutes ago, Calihorn said:

You think Joe Biden could win WV? 

 

I get your point now though, I agree that federal level election have less ticket-splitting than state and local elections.

Forgot about that one. I think if it would have been a presidential Montana would have gone red in the senate. That puts WVa as really the only outlier in the country as the exception that proves the rule. 

WVA he’s been rumored to be looking to switch parties from time to time, so, yeah I don’t think that’s a super strong point for “candidates matter a whole lot”. Maybe it’s “candidates matter a little bit- unless you are a pedo or something other similarly disqualifying then you can’t win even in the Deep South”. 

That’s not fitting on a bumper sticker. 

Edited April 18, 2020 by Wulaw Horn

[gmr548 16602]

10 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Here’s the interesting question about the senate races in light of 2016- does it even matter who the candidate is. In 2016 there was not a single split ticket. In 2018 the races went the way of the state presidential up/down at that moment in time  I don’t get the sense we are electing senators all that much anymore- but rather parties to Senate seats in those states.  

I want to see a couple more polls before I decide if this is a new rule or merely something happening right now, but my sense is that these senate polls say less about any individual senate matchup and more about the smooth buttfucking coming Trumps way in November. 

To an extent, yes. It's true that Senate races have moved to track state presidential partisanship pretty closely. That wasn't always the case, and there are still some outliers, but it's definitely moved that direction. There was a 538 piece around the 2018 midterms (fuck me does that feel like forever ago) that laid out the numbers. Governor's races are less tracked to presidential partisanship.

There all still some races that buck that trend, obviously. Beto vs Cruz was obviously one - exceptionally strong D candidate vs a R that was loathed even by some within the party. Beto probably wins if Rs don't get riled up about Kavanaugh. Conversely, we saw the other end of the spectrum in TX with Abbott vs Lupe, total massacre that would have been worse without Beto. Use other downballot statewide races where people were just voting for the letter as a guide, and we know Texas was R +6 or so in 2018. You can do the same thing with AZ. Red state, but no one liked McSally so she lost by 2 points. Popular Republican governor wins by 15. Three other partisan statewide races went from basically 50-50 where the D happened to get a few more votes, to R+10. Rs maintained a slight lead in state lege, though I have no idea how gerrymandered AZ is or isn't. So from that you can infer AZ is maybe slightly less red than TX given that Democratic wins are at least possible, probably R+ 3-5. Things have obviously continued to shift towards Democrats in both states, but probably not by 3-5 points in two years. Smart money says Trump squeaks by in AZ while Kelly wins by a decent margin. So in tightly contested states, candidates matter.

NC is another example, and potentially with much stronger potential ramifications. Still a Republican lean; everyone fucking hates Thillis though, and Cunningham is pretty well liked. NC having a fairly popular Democratic governor and Biden's strength among black voters make me think that's the sunbelt red state Trump/Rs need to be most worried about. 2020 could see NC end up with Ds winning all three main top of the ticket races despite its usual R lean. It's also pretty damn important for Trump's path to victory.

[Zonahorn 8079]

Arizona has an independent commission comprised of 2 Dems, 2 Republican, and 1 independent FWIW https://www.azredistricting.org/

 

Also, I think Kelly wins by enough to pull Biden across, nobody likes McSally, and nobody likes that she got gifted a seat after losing. Trump is also underwater in his approval numbers here.

[Bateshorn 9929]

1 hour ago, Calihorn said:

Arizona has an independent commission comprised of 2 Dems, 2 Republican, and 1 independent FWIW https://www.azredistricting.org/

 

Also, I think Kelly wins by enough to pull Biden across, nobody likes McSally, and nobody likes that she got gifted a seat after losing. Trump is also underwater in his approval numbers here.

AZ, like TX, has seen a flood of CA “refugees” over the last 5 years. It’s markedly bluer now than 2016 or even 2018.  NC is getting bluer as well,  but it’s more of a change in suburban voting tastes. 

[Voldemort86 2259]

4 hours ago, Bateshorn said:

AZ, like TX, has seen a flood of CA “refugees” over the last 5 years. It’s markedly bluer now than 2016 or even 2018.  NC is getting bluer as well,  but it’s more of a change in suburban voting tastes. 

Georgia is getting bluer as well.

at the same time, Ohio and Iowa seem to be getting redder.

[CooterBrown 18022]

Georgia is getting bluer as well.
at the same time, Ohio and Iowa seem to be getting redder.

States that are circling the drain want someone to blame for their lot in life instead of looking in the mirror. The GOP gives them a boogie man to hate.