2020 Senate Elections

[cactusflinthead 27594]

The scale of the G.O.P.’s challenge has crystallized in the last week. With 26 million Americans now having filed for unemployment benefits, Mr. Trump’s standing in states that he carried in 2016 looks increasingly wobbly: New surveys show him trailing significantly in battleground states like Michigan and Pennsylvania, and he is even narrowly behind in must-win Florida.

----

 

In Maine, for example, Senator Susan Collins brought in $2.4 million while her little-known rival, the House speaker Sara Gideon, raised more than $7 million. Even more concerning to Republicans is the lesser-known Thom Tillis of North Carolina. Republican officials are especially irritated at Mr. Tillis because he has little small-dollar support and raised only $2.1 million, which was more than doubled by his Democratic opponent.

“These Senate first-quarter fund-raising numbers are a serious wake-up call for the G.O.P.,” said Scott Reed, the top political strategist at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/25/us/politics/trump-election-briefings.html

[Ghost of LL 15486]

10 minutes ago, cactusflinthead said:

The scale of the G.O.P.’s challenge has crystallized in the last week. With 26 million Americans now having filed for unemployment benefits, Mr. Trump’s standing in states that he carried in 2016 looks increasingly wobbly: New surveys show him trailing significantly in battleground states like Michigan and Pennsylvania, and he is even narrowly behind in must-win Florida.

----

 

In Maine, for example, Senator Susan Collins brought in $2.4 million while her little-known rival, the House speaker Sara Gideon, raised more than $7 million. Even more concerning to Republicans is the lesser-known Thom Tillis of North Carolina. Republican officials are especially irritated at Mr. Tillis because he has little small-dollar support and raised only $2.1 million, which was more than doubled by his Democratic opponent.

“These Senate first-quarter fund-raising numbers are a serious wake-up call for the G.O.P.,” said Scott Reed, the top political strategist at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/25/us/politics/trump-election-briefings.html

I don't think Sara Gideon is "little-known."  She's the speaker of the Maine House of Representatives.  That's a pretty big gig in a small state.

[cactusflinthead 27594]

Little known outside of Maine perhaps?

Look, these are the same people that gave us green pea guacamole. They are sometimes only vaguely aware that there is a world outside the confines of their state. 

[Ghost of LL 15486]

52 minutes ago, cactusflinthead said:

Little known outside of Maine perhaps?

Look, these are the same people that gave us green pea guacamole. They are sometimes only vaguely aware that there is a world outside the confines of their state. 

[cactusflinthead 27594]

44 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

https://www.eater.com/2017/3/14/14905200/pea-guacamole-controversy-melissa-clark

https://cooking.nytimes.com/recipes/1015047-green-pea-guacamole

[henrygandorf 29174]

3 hours ago, cactusflinthead said:

The scale of the G.O.P.’s challenge has crystallized in the last week. With 26 million Americans now having filed for unemployment benefits, Mr. Trump’s standing in states that he carried in 2016 looks increasingly wobbly: New surveys show him trailing significantly in battleground states like Michigan and Pennsylvania, and he is even narrowly behind in must-win Florida.

----

 

In Maine, for example, Senator Susan Collins brought in $2.4 million while her little-known rival, the House speaker Sara Gideon, raised more than $7 million. Even more concerning to Republicans is the lesser-known Thom Tillis of North Carolina. Republican officials are especially irritated at Mr. Tillis because he has little small-dollar support and raised only $2.1 million, which was more than doubled by his Democratic opponent.

“These Senate first-quarter fund-raising numbers are a serious wake-up call for the G.O.P.,” said Scott Reed, the top political strategist at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/25/us/politics/trump-election-briefings.html

i'm sure it's been mentioned before, but the internet/paypal/venmo/actblue/whatever has really turned fundraising into a national thing.  i can sit in la and read about senate races and bitch about mcconnell and grab my phone to donate to 5 different races in 5 different states for candidates i've barely heard of. 

it obviously wasn't like this 20 years ago, and i don't think it was like this 6-8 years ago.  for a candidate to access that money, it would have to come straight from the dnc or dccc i would guess.

i would be very curious to see the breakdown of where donations are coming from for opponents of collins, graham, mcconnell, etc.  i would also like to watch video of them complaining about it while i eat white cheddar cheetos and drink basil hayden. 

[Mrs Whiggins 13049]

Well, I learned about two new things today: green pea guacamole and something called Basil Hayden (actually three things because I didn't know about the BB player either). I don't mind "fluidity" in cooking (per @cactusflinthead's NYT article) as I love the great melting pot of world cooking but I respect the original recipes, too. Life's too short to get all fussy about it, IMO, and I remember when grocery stores in the midwest barely stocked the little dry chowmein noodles and now they have sushi bars.

Back to the topic, definitely the ease with which I can donate to candidates now has me a little more willing to go outside my area when I have a little extra to give. I gave to Warren as a matter of course, but trying to topple McConnell was a vengeance donation.

[406W30th 1111]

3 hours ago, cactusflinthead said:

Little known outside of Maine perhaps?

Look, these are the same people that gave us green pea guacamole. They are sometimes only vaguely aware that there is a world outside the confines of their state. 

 

[JimmyJames 12271]

On 4/20/2020 at 8:50 PM, Wulaw Horn said:

I mean, I think Obama is a thin skinned narcissist but I did vote in the Dem primary for him (lived in Sheila Jackson’s Lee’s district) in 2008 because I thought he was a better human being than Hillary Clinton so yeah, whatever. 

Of course, the bullshit desire to throw racism at anyone who disagrees with you totally didn’t lead to the backlash that got Trump elected or anything, but you just go ahead and keep being part of the solution there chief, thanks much. 

As to Biden I said possible scumbag and Trump known scumbag. If Biden is guilty of rape (which I sort of doubt) then he’s every bit the scumbag Trump is, but I out about as much credence into that allegation as I did into the one against kavanagh which is to say- not particularly much but also not something that would shock me or rock my world if I found out its true. At a minimum I think Biden is probably creepy and lecherous and if that’s it he’s prostate cancer to Trumps pancreatic cancer. 

I don’t know you so I’m sure you’ve been on the boards for 5 minutes tops, but feel free to fuck right off with your race baiting. 

I wrote a post in 2008 talking about my happiness in seeing a black man get elected in America as an aspirational thing for a minority group and I will feel the same way if it’s a woman (particularly since it’s not Hillary who would be riding her husbands coattails- I want my daughters to have a better life lesson than “you can accomplish anything as long as you marry well”).  If it’s a liberal woman I will immediately go on rooting for her not to accomplish any objective I think is harmful for the country and root for anything that does happen to go well for the country, but then again that’s because I’m a rational adult human being capable of having two thoughts in my head at one time. 

Obama is not a narcissist. The current president is. Negged for completely dumbfuckery. 

[Gatorubet 30088]

Turtle getting slammed for some recent GOP huddle convo where he says they have to appoint more judges ASAP.   While he is getting heat for not prioritizing Covid issues, and the implication of insensitivity to deaths and suffering, I was thinking this morning that it might just be that Mitch has access to really great internal polling, and that the GOP  losing the Senate and/or POTUS is more of a likelihood than they are admitting.  

His private comments can be read as more deliberate Realpolitik response to a polling threat than off-the-wall Mitch being insensitive.

[gmr548 16503]

3 hours ago, Gatorubet said:

Turtle getting slammed for some recent GOP huddle convo where he says they have to appoint more judges ASAP.   While he is getting heat for not prioritizing Covid issues, and the implication of insensitivity to deaths and suffering, I was thinking this morning that it might just be that Mitch has access to really great internal polling, and that the GOP  losing the Senate and/or POTUS is more of a likelihood than they are admitting.  

His private comments can be read as more deliberate Realpolitik response to a polling threat than off-the-wall Mitch being insensitive.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/25/us/politics/trump-election-briefings.html?action=click&module=Top Stories&pgtype=Homepage

Spoiler

WASHINGTON — President Trump’s erratic handling of the coronavirus outbreak, the worsening economy and a cascade of ominous public and private polling have Republicans increasingly nervous that they are at risk of losing the presidency and the Senate if Mr. Trump does not put the nation on a radically improved course.

The scale of the G.O.P.’s challenge has crystallized in the last week. With 26 million Americans now having filed for unemployment benefits, Mr. Trump’s standing in states that he carried in 2016 looks increasingly wobbly: New surveys show him trailing significantly in battleground states like Michigan and Pennsylvania, and he is even narrowly behind in must-win Florida.

Democrats raised substantially more money than Republicans did in the first quarter in the most pivotal congressional races, according to recent campaign finance reports. And while Mr. Trump is well ahead in money compared with the presumptive Democratic nominee, Joseph R. Biden Jr., Democratic donors are only beginning to focus on the general election, and several super PACs plan to spend heavily on behalf of him and the party.

Perhaps most significantly, Mr. Trump’s single best advantage as an incumbent — his access to the bully pulpit — has effectively become a platform for self-sabotage.

ADVERTISEMENT

Continue reading the main story

His daily news briefings on the coronavirus outbreak are inflicting grave damage on his political standing, Republicans believe, and his recent remarks about combating the virus with sunlight and disinfectant were a breaking point for a number of senior party officials.

On Friday evening, Mr. Trump conducted only a short briefing and took no questions, a format that a senior administration official said was being discussed as the best option for the president going forward.

Glen Bolger, a longtime Republican pollster, said the landscape for his party had become far grimmer compared with the pre-virus plan to run almost singularly around the country’s prosperity.

“With the economy in free-fall, Republicans face a very challenging environment and it’s a total shift from where we were a few months ago,” Mr. Bolger said. “Democrats are angry, and now we have the foundation of the campaign yanked out from underneath us.”

Mr. Trump’s advisers and allies have often blamed external events for his most self-destructive acts, such as his repeated outbursts during the two-year investigation into his campaign’s dealings with Russia. Now, there is no such explanation — and, so far, there have been exceedingly few successful interventions regarding Mr. Trump’s behavior at the podium.

ADVERTISEMENT

Continue reading the main story

Representative Tom Cole, Republican of Oklahoma, said the president had to change his tone and offer more than a campaign of grievance.

“You got to have some hope to sell people,” Mr. Cole said. “But Trump usually sells anger, division and ‘we’re the victim.’”

Latest Updates: Coronavirus Outbreak in the U.S.
U.S. testing needs “a huge technology breakthrough.”
The U.S. will need social distancing through the summer.
Governors defend tentative steps to reopen their states.
See more updates
Updated 54m ago
More live coverage: Global Markets New York
There are still more than six months until the election, and many Republicans are hoping that the dynamics of the race will shift once Mr. Biden is thrust back into the campaign spotlight. At that point, they believe, the race will not simply be the up-or-down referendum on the president it is now, and Mr. Trump will be able to more effectively sell himself as the person to rebuild the economy.

[Read about Joseph R. Biden Jr.’s cloistered mode of campaigning during the coronavirus lockdown.]

ImageThere have been no successful interventions regarding Mr. Trump’s behavior at the podium during his daily coronavirus briefings.
There have been no successful interventions regarding Mr. Trump’s behavior at the podium during his daily coronavirus briefings.Credit...Al Drago for The New York Times
“We built the greatest economy in the world; I’ll do it a second time,” Mr. Trump said earlier this month, road-testing a theme he will deploy in the coming weeks.

Still, a recent wave of polling has fueled Republican anxieties, as Mr. Biden leads in virtually every competitive state.

The surveys also showed Republican senators in Arizona, Colorado, North Carolina and Maine trailing or locked in a dead heat with potential Democratic rivals — in part because their fate is linked to Mr. Trump’s job performance. If incumbents in those states lose, and Republicans pick up only the Senate seat in Alabama, Democrats would take control of the chamber should Mr. Biden win the presidency.

ADVERTISEMENT

Continue reading the main story

“He’s got to run very close for us to keep the Senate,” Charles R. Black Jr., a veteran Republican consultant, said of Mr. Trump. “I’ve always thought we were favored to, but I can’t say that now with all these cards up in the air.”

Republicans were taken aback this past week by the results of a 17-state survey commissioned by the Republican National Committee. It found the president struggling in the Electoral College battlegrounds and likely to lose without signs of an economic rebound this fall, according to a party strategist outside the R.N.C. who is familiar with the poll’s results.

The Trump campaign’s own surveys have also shown an erosion of support, according to four people familiar with the data, as the coronavirus remains the No. 1 issue worrying voters.

Polling this early is, of course, not determinative: In 2016 Hillary Clinton also enjoyed a wide advantage in many states well before November.

Yet Mr. Trump’s best hope to win a state he lost in 2016, Minnesota, also seems increasingly challenging. A Democratic survey taken by Senator Tina Smith showed the president trailing by 10 percentage points there, according to a Democratic strategist who viewed the poll.

The private data of the two parties is largely mirrored by public surveys. Just last week, three Pennsylvania polls and two Michigan surveys were released showing Mr. Trump losing outside the margin of error. And a pair of Florida polls were released that showed Mr. Biden enjoying a slim advantage in a state that is all but essential for Republicans to retain the presidency.

To some in the party, this feels all too similar to the last time they held the White House.

In 2006, anger at President George W. Bush and unease with the Iraq war propelled Democrats to reclaim Congress; two years later they captured the presidency thanks to the same anti-incumbent themes and an unexpected crisis that accelerated their advantage, the economic collapse of 2008. The two elections were effectively a single continuous rejection of Republican rule, as some in the G.O.P. fear 2018 and 2020 could become in a worst-case scenario.

ADVERTISEMENT

Continue reading the main story

“It already feels very similar to the 2008 cycle,” said Billy Piper, a Republican lobbyist and former chief of staff to Senator Mitch McConnell.

Significant questions remain that could tilt the outcome of this election: whether Americans experience a second wave of the virus in the fall, the condition of the economy and how well Mr. Biden performs after he emerges from his Wilmington, Del., basement, which many in his party are privately happy to keep him in so long as Mr. Trump is fumbling as he governs amid a crisis.

ImageDefeating Senator Susan Collins, Republican of Maine, has become a cause for national liberal activists.
Defeating Senator Susan Collins, Republican of Maine, has become a cause for national liberal activists.Credit...Anna Moneymaker/The New York Times
But if Republicans are comforted by the uncertainties that remain, they are alarmed by one element of this election that is already abundantly clear: The small-dollar fund-raising energy Democrats enjoyed in the midterms has not abated.

Most of the incumbent House Democrats facing competitive races enjoy a vast financial advantage over Republican challengers, who are struggling to garner attention as the virus overwhelms news coverage.

Still, few officials in either party believed the House was in play this year. There was also similar skepticism about the Senate. Then the virus struck and fund-raising reports covering the first three months of this year were released in mid-April.

Republican senators facing difficult races were not only all outraised by Democrats, they were also overwhelmed.

ADVERTISEMENT

Continue reading the main story

In Maine, for example, Senator Susan Collins brought in $2.4 million while her little-known rival, the House speaker Sara Gideon, raised more than $7 million. Even more concerning to Republicans is the lesser-known Thom Tillis of North Carolina. Republican officials are especially irritated at Mr. Tillis because he has little small-dollar support and raised only $2.1 million, which was more than doubled by his Democratic opponent.

“These Senate first-quarter fund-raising numbers are a serious wake-up call for the G.O.P.,” said Scott Reed, the top political strategist at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce.

The Republican Senate woes come as anger toward Mr. Trump is rising from some of the party’s most influential figures on Capitol Hill.

After working closely with Senate Republicans at the start of the year, some of the party’s top congressional strategists say the handful of political advisers Mr. Trump retains have communicated little with them since the health crisis began.

In a campaign steered by Mr. Trump, whose rallies drove fund-raising and data harvesting, the center of gravity has of late shifted to the White House. His campaign headquarters will remain closed for another few weeks, and West Wing officials say the president’s campaign manager, Brad Parscale, hasn’t been to the White House since last month, though he is in touch by phone.

Then there is the president’s conduct.

In just the last week, he has undercut the efforts of his campaign and his allies to attack Mr. Biden on China; suddenly proposed a halt on immigration; and said governors should not move too soon to reopen their economies — a week after calling on protesters to “liberate” their states. And that was all before his digression into the potential healing powers of disinfectants.

ImageSenator Thom Tillis, Republican of North Carolina, has little small-dollar support and raised only $2.1 million in the first quarter. 
Senator Thom Tillis, Republican of North Carolina, has little small-dollar support and raised only $2.1 million in the first quarter. Credit...Pete Marovich for The New York Times
Republican lawmakers have gone from watching his lengthy daily briefings with a tight-lipped grimace to looking upon them with horror.

ADVERTISEMENT

Continue reading the main story

“Any of us can be onstage too much,” said the longtime Representative Greg Walden of Oregon, noting that “there’s a burnout factor no matter who you are, you’ve got to think about that.”

Privately, other party leaders are less restrained about the political damage they believe Mr. Trump is doing to himself and Republican candidates. One prominent G.O.P. senator said the nightly sessions were so painful he could not bear watching any longer.

“I would urge the president to focus on the positive, all that has been done and how we are preparing for a possible renewal of the pandemic in the fall,” said Representative Peter King, Republican of New York.

Asked about concerns over Mr. Trump’s briefings, the White House press secretary, Kayleigh McEnany, said, “Millions and millions of Americans tune in each day to hear directly from President Trump and appreciate his leadership, unprecedented coronavirus response, and confident outlook for America’s future.”

Mr. Trump’s thrashing about partly reflects his frustration with the virus and his inability to slow Mr. Biden’s rise in the polls. It’s also an illustration of his broader inability to shift the public conversation to another topic, something he has almost always been able to do when confronted with negative story lines ranging from impeachment proceedings to payouts to adult film stars.

Mr. Trump is also restless. Administration officials said they were looking to resume his travel in as soon as a week, although campaign rallies remain distant for now.

ADVERTISEMENT

Continue reading the main story

As they look for ways to regain the advantage, some Republicans believe the party must mount an immediate ad campaign blitzing Mr. Biden, identifying him to their advantage and framing the election as a clear choice.

“If Trump is the issue, he probably loses,” said Mr. Black, the consultant. “If he makes it about Biden and the economy is getting better, he has a chance.”

 

Edited April 26, 2020 by gmr548

[StassneyHorn 6538]

I can’t be the only one who feels good about Montana and Kansas (if Kobach is nominee) right? Kansasansnans’s already rejected Kobach in 2018 and Montana has a history of voting D at statewide level, especially in the Senate. To me, these races have a much better value for fundraising if the end goal is Senate control. Much, much, much cheaper than than both of Georgia’s, NC or Iowa.

[gmr548 16503]

18 minutes ago, StassneyHorn said:

I can’t be the only one who feels good about Montana and Kansas (if Kobach is nominee) right? Kansasansnans’s already rejected Kobach in 2018 and Montana has a history of voting D at statewide level, especially in the Senate. To me, these races have a much better value for fundraising if the end goal is Senate control. Much, much, much cheaper than than both of Georgia’s, NC or Iowa.

I'd put NC above those. They've got a pretty popular Democratic governor and Joe Biden's strength among black voters is obviously well documented. Real opportunity to go 3 for 3 there. and I think you have to invest accordingly. Agree on Georgia and Iowa. Waste of time. MT or KS with Kobach is better than either one of those.

[Ghost of LL 15486]

17 hours ago, gmr548 said:

I'd put NC above those. They've got a pretty popular Democratic governor and Joe Biden's strength among black voters is obviously well documented. Real opportunity to go 3 for 3 there. and I think you have to invest accordingly. Agree on Georgia and Iowa. Waste of time. MT or KS with Kobach is better than either one of those.

I don't think Iowa is a waste of time.  Ernst is really, really unpopular there.

And anyway--how much money can you possibly throw at Montana.  It's cheap as shit to run a statewide campaign there.  And anyway, the governor has 100% name recognition already.  So he could really run a very cheap campaign.

[henrygandorf 29174]

22 hours ago, Gatorubet said:

Turtle getting slammed for some recent GOP huddle convo where he says they have to appoint more judges ASAP.   While he is getting heat for not prioritizing Covid issues, and the implication of insensitivity to deaths and suffering, I was thinking this morning that it might just be that Mitch has access to really great internal polling, and that the GOP  losing the Senate and/or POTUS is more of a likelihood than they are admitting.  

His private comments can be read as more deliberate Realpolitik response to a polling threat than off-the-wall Mitch being insensitive.

any rush to get shit squeezed in before november, like judicial appointments, has to be read this way.  the more they rush, the better i feel about things.

[lemonlime 5503]

I just split my small "stimulus" check between Amy McGrath and Sara Gideon.  I've never donated to a campaign before---I'd much rather just give that money to charity.  But, hell, it couldn't be a bigger waste than the so called stimulus package the feds are spending on major corporations, and it made me fell good.

[Message Board User 12389]

 

[henrygandorf 29174]

16 hours ago, Message Board User said:

 

for some perspective, trump won montana by 20+ in 2016.

[GopherRock 1765]

News and Guts has a discussion about South Carolina. 

https://www.newsandguts.com/is-lindsey-graham-in-trouble/

IMHO if the blue wave is makes Leningrad Lindsey sweat out a photo finish, the GOP has already lost control of the chamber. 

[Message Board User 12389]

 

[Message Board User 12389]

 

[SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3861]

2 minutes ago, Message Board User said:

 

A case of double short coat tails there.  The president is not pulling up his senator, and the senator can't drive turnout for the president.  That's a big deal in a state right on the margins like NC.

[Biff Tannen 45492]

13 hours ago, Message Board User said:

 

They have Montana as an R lean when current polling shows the D candidate up several points.

[Message Board User 12389]

7 minutes ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

A case of double short coat tails there.  The president is not pulling up his senator, and the senator can't drive turnout for the president.  That's a big deal in a state right on the margins like NC.

Yeah my brother lives in Charlotte and he said the growth in the research triangle over the last 10 years has been crazy and most of those new residents probably lean left.  @Walden Ponderer

[Message Board User 12389]

Just now, Biff Tannen said:

They have Montana as an R lean when current polling shows the D candidate up several points.

Yeah, they discuss Montana in the article.

 

[gmr548 16503]

A case of double short coat tails there.  The president is not pulling up his senator, and the senator can't drive turnout for the president.  That's a big deal in a state right on the margins like NC.

The more data I see on NC, the more I'm thinking Democrats go 3/3 with Cooper as the unsung hero pulling them over the line. I'm surprised Rs are non competitive in the governor's race in a state that still leans a little red.

[Ghost of LL 15486]

18 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

The more data I see on NC, the more I'm thinking Democrats go 3/3 with Cooper as the unsung hero pulling them over the line. I'm surprised Rs are non competitive in the governor's race in a state that still leans a little red.

North Carolina has become exceptionally suburbanized.  As Republicans have lost the suburbs over the past five years, I don't think it's particularly surprising that they are having trouble there.

[Storm the Field 5271]

1 hour ago, Message Board User said:

 

Beware this poll. Unweighted email survey.

[SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3861]

12 minutes ago, Storm the Field said:

Beware this poll. Unweighted email survey.

Hm.  Yeah, that looks like garbage.  How can they have any confidence in the margin of error on some method so untested?

[Kyrie Eleison 9312]

20 hours ago, GopherRock said:

News and Guts has a discussion about South Carolina. 

https://www.newsandguts.com/is-lindsey-graham-in-trouble/

IMHO if the blue wave is makes Leningrad Lindsey sweat out a photo finish, the GOP has already lost control of the chamber. 

this seems significant...

http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/495337-former-lindsey-graham-supporter-flips-to-back-democratic-opponent-in-senate

 

[Voldemort86 2259]

7 hours ago, Biff Tannen said:

They have Montana as an R lean when current polling shows the D candidate up several points.

It’s still early in the cycle.

 

lots more time for the ratings to shift.

[tx 3 putt 76350]

long way until November 

[Walden Ponderer 12639]

On 5/1/2020 at 10:40 AM, Message Board User said:

Yeah my brother lives in Charlotte and he said the growth in the research triangle over the last 10 years has been crazy and most of those new residents probably lean left.  @Walden Ponderer

Gonna be a weird dynamic with the Governor's race, too. Dan Forrest (brilliant add campaign -- nested "Run" "Forrest" "Run" yard signs) is at the forefront of the nutjobs protesting the stay at home order. Forest seems like he has good campaign staff, but he himself is a few brain cells shy of sentience. I could see Roy Cooper pulling up whoever the Dem nominee is (and I'll only believe it's Biden if he manages to stay out of the hospital until November). North Carolina will officially be weird no matter what, though.

[Message Board User 12389]

 

 

[Message Board User 12389]

 

[Bateshorn 9898]

On 4/26/2020 at 2:53 PM, Gatorubet said:

Turtle getting slammed for some recent GOP huddle convo where he says they have to appoint more judges ASAP.   While he is getting heat for not prioritizing Covid issues, and the implication of insensitivity to deaths and suffering, I was thinking this morning that it might just be that Mitch has access to really great internal polling, and that the GOP  losing the Senate and/or POTUS is more of a likelihood than they are admitting.  

His private comments can be read as more deliberate Realpolitik response to a polling threat than off-the-wall Mitch being insensitive.

It's two fold: Nominees, and if the House stays away for an extended period of time, the drop date for the Congressional Review Act is getting earlier and earlier in 2020.  The GOP may want to challenge a CRA override of a rule by arguing the Senate being in town constitutes congress being in session and starts the CRA clock.

[Message Board User 12389]

 

[Gap03 3284]

11 minutes ago, Message Board User said:

 

So to recap, the recent NC Senate polls have been:

Civiqs (5/2-4):             Cunningham 50% / Tillis 41%   (D+9)

Meredith (4/27-28):    Cunningham 44% / Tillis 34%   (D+9)

SurveyUSA (4/23-26): Cunningham 41% / Tillis 39%   (D+2)

PPP (4/14-15):             Cunningham 47% / Tillis 40%   (D+7)

Based on the recent polls out of AZ, NC and CO, it's feeling like my money should go to Gideon out in Maine and maybe Bullock in Montana (though he may not need the money due to name recognition).   Then again, out of pure animus, part of me thinks I should throw some extra $$ to Harrison and McGrath.  Starting to love the way the Senate map is shaping up.

[Message Board User 12389]

I didn't know this until I just looked it up (or maybe I just forgot), but Richard Burr has already announced he will not be seeking re-election.

Fairly good chance that in the next few years the Dems will hold the governors office and both senator seats from NC.

[gmr548 16503]

So to recap, the recent NC Senate polls have been:
Civiqs (5/2-4):             Cunningham 50% / Tillis 41%   (D+9)
Meredith (4/27-28):    Cunningham 44% / Tillis 34%   (D+9)
SurveyUSA (4/23-26): Cunningham 41% / Tillis 39%   (D+2)
PPP (4/14-15):             Cunningham 47% / Tillis 40%   (D+7)
Based on the recent polls out of AZ, NC and CO, it's feeling like my money should go to Gideon out in Maine and maybe Bullock in Montana (though he may not need the money due to name recognition).   Then again, out of pure animus, part of me thinks I should throw some extra $$ to Harrison and McGrath.  Starting to love the way the Senate map is shaping up.

I didn't realize Cunningham had opened up that kind of lead. Hmm. Long way to November but I'm really looking what I'm seeing out of NC. People don't realize how critical that state is to Trump's victory.

[Voldemort86 2259]

1 hour ago, Message Board User said:

 

I don’t know much about the NC senate race, but supposedly Tillis is unpopular with either the trumpkin base or the moderate a GOP / suburban base.

either way, I think NC should be more blue tilted than normal. Neither of North Carolina’s senators are liked at all.

Edited May 5, 2020 by Voldemort86

[Ghost of LL 15486]

2 hours ago, Message Board User said:

 

I'm going to throw this out there, and I'm too lazy to do the research to back it up.  But I think even this far out a challenger that hits 50% in polls has to have a very high likelihood of winning.  Barring some sort of significant scandal, it indicates such extreme dissatisfaction with the incumbent and/or such extreme support for the challenger that it makes it nearly impossible for the incumbent (who presumably has 100% name recognition) to overcome.

[Patrick Bateman 3903]

Oh boy..... Is Jones even down by this much?  Last I saw was about 12 down for Jones.

 

[Message Board User 12389]

16 minutes ago, Patrick Bateman said:

Oh boy..... Is Jones even down by this much?  Last I saw was about 12 down for Jones.

 

Yeah I think anybody calling Colorado a swing state is kidding themselves.  For better or worse, that is a deep blue state.

[gmr548 16503]

Yeah I think anybody calling Colorado a swing state is kidding themselves.  For better or worse, that is a deep blue state.

Yeah I don't get that shit. It's a mirror image of Washington state and Oregon at this point.

[PsychMike 1539]

On 4/27/2020 at 10:54 AM, Ghost of LL said:

I don't think Iowa is a waste of time.  Ernst is really, really unpopular there.

And anyway--how much money can you possibly throw at Montana.  It's cheap as shit to run a statewide campaign there.  And anyway, the governor has 100% name recognition already.  So he could really run a very cheap campaign.

I think you're spot on, GoLL.

 

 

 

[henrygandorf 29174]

jesus, if iowa happens...

[PsychMike 1539]

This seems like a good idea. I hope it works. It will almost certainly be fun to watch.

 

[Voldemort86 2259]

1 hour ago, henrygandorf said:

jesus, if iowa happens...

Maybe it’s not that farfetched.

 

I remember that loser chuck grassley had to chime in to the 2018 Iowa governor race and “ remind” the people of Iowa that the governor would appoint his replacement if something happened to him. 
 

It’s unfortunate, but the GOP did succeed in electing some terrible governors in 2018. Kristi Noem is dumb as a fucking rock, Kim Reynolds isn’t much brighter, Brian kemp thought the virus didn’t spread asymptomatically.....in late March. Ron Detrumpis doesn’t wipe his ass before trump tells him he can.

anyway, Iowa has proven that it can still be close. At the same time, there are farmers in Iowa who are literally getting shit on and still screaming MAGA at the top of their retarded lungs so I guess we shall see.

Edited May 6, 2020 by Voldemort86

[Gap03 3284]

1 hour ago, henrygandorf said:

jesus, if iowa happens...

Hell, yeah.  If things really unravel for the Rs in the fall, they could end up scrambling for campaign money to defend all the seats that could end up in play.  Imagine if the polls continue to grow worse for the most contested R seats:

1. Colorado (D+15)
2. Arizona  (D+6)
3. North Carolina (D+6)
4. Maine (D+2)
5. Montana 
6. Iowa (R+1)
7. Kansas 
8. Georgia SE (?)
9. Kentucky (R + 3)
10. South Carolina

Where would they concentrate their money?  If McConnell is controlling the purse strings, you can be damn sure that he'd be keeping a fair chunk of change if McGrath is in striking distance.  I like the idea of keeping him sweating enough that he's not making rational choices in that regard. 

I'd fucking lose my mind if we were able to get rid of Trump, McConnell, Collins, McSally, Ernst, Loeffler and Graham all in one election.