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2020 Senate Elections

Patrick Bateman

By Patrick Bateman
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henrygandorf

henrygandorf 29174

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10 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

Maybe it’s not that farfetched.

 

I remember that loser chuck grassley had to chime in to the 2018 Iowa governor race and “ remind” the people of Iowa that the governor would appoint his replacement if something happened to him. 
 

It’s unfortunate, but the GOP did succeed in electing some terrible governors in 2018. Kristi Noem is dumb as a fucking rock, Kim Reynolds isn’t much brighter, Brian kemp thought the virus didn’t spread asymptomatically.....in late March. Ron Detrumpis doesn’t wipe his ass before trump tells him he can.

anyway, Iowa has proven that it can still be close. At the same time, there are farmers in Iowa who are literally getting shit on and still screaming MAGA at the top of their retarded lungs so I guess we shall see.

yep.  if i was predicting the easiest path to a flip, it would be to win 5, lose 1.  the 5 would be az, me, mt, nc, co.  not even sure iowa would be 6th.

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cactusflinthead

cactusflinthead 27594

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This is as good a place as any to plunk this down. 

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/02/06/rachel-bitecofer-profile-election-forecasting-new-theory-108944

Dated 2/6 so pre-covid, well y'know not really, but it wasn't actually getting the attention of anyone except for the nerds that saw it coming. 

Her premise and the headline is that there are very few true swing voters is something that we've discussed before. She puts it at 6-7%. I might go as low as 5. 'Independent' voters are mostly leaning to one side or the other. Disaffected from the parties. They don't want to admit to voting for R or D. That's a good deal of the reason why the declared R voters are declining. Rather than admitting that yes, while they claim to be an independent, they more often than not vote R. 

That means it's pointless to try to court them. 

Bitecofer’s theory, when you boil it down, is that modern American elections are rarely shaped by voters changing their minds, but rather by shifts in who decides to vote in the first place. To her critics, she’s an extreme apostle of the old saw that “turnout explains everything,” taking a long victory lap after getting lucky one time. She sees things slightly differently: That the last few elections show that American politics really has changed, and other experts have been slow to process what it means.

----

 

Bitecofer has a nickname for this view. She calls it, with disdain, the “Chuck Todd theory of American politics”: “The idea that there is this informed, engaged American population that is watching these political events and watching their elected leaders and assessing their behavior and making a judgment.”

“And it is just not true.”

---'

Bitecofer’s view of the electorate is driven, in part, by a new way to think about why Americans vote the way they do. She counts as an intellectual mentor Alan Abramowitz, a professor of political science at Emory University who popularized the concept of “negative partisanship,” the idea that voters are more motivated to defeat the other side than by any particular policy goals.

 

 

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Gap03

Gap03 3284

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2 minutes ago, Message Board User said:

 

Pretty clear that Martha is doing everything that she can to get some of that sweet, sweet Senate Leadership Fund money funneled her way.  You can almost see Mitch's mouth move when she's talking.  Unfortunately, I suspect that the flow is going to dry up here pretty quickly as Kelly continues to drub her in the polls and the threats to R Senate incumbents in other states continue to grow.  

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bad_teammate

bad_teammate 13132

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15 minutes ago, NameAlreadyInUse said:

Is this real?  Got news for the guy, he should’ve had a period after the word pandemic, then he should’ve deleted all the words after that. What in the fuck is he on about?

Republicans want to cheer while all the blood is sucked out of your body.

Democrats want to say, "Wait wait, be nice about it!" while all the blood is sucked out of your body.

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gmr548

gmr548 16504

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On 5/6/2020 at 9:18 PM, cactusflinthead said:

Bitecofer’s view of the electorate is driven, in part, by a new way to think about why Americans vote the way they do. She counts as an intellectual mentor Alan Abramowitz, a professor of political science at Emory University who popularized the concept of “negative partisanship,” the idea that voters are more motivated to defeat the other side than by any particular policy goals.

 

 

I think there's a lot of truth to the whole angle, but especially this. Probably more so on the GOP side, just because they don't really have coherent policy goals, but even for Democrats. Especially this year.

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NameAlreadyInUse

NameAlreadyInUse 5106

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I have voted in every presidential election since I was old enough to vote.  However, once I stopped voting for Republicans I often wondered why I should bother, because I was just throwing my vote away on whoever happened to be the Libertarian candidate.  If you'd told me 20 years ago that a future version of me would pull the lever for Hillary Clinton for President, I would've called you insane, but the possibility of Trump made me switch to voting for Democrats and I do so wholeheartedly now.    Oh, and this November, I'll walk through fucking glass barefoot if I have to in order to vote against that asshole, so I'm becoming a Democrat partisan, but mainly because of negative partisanship.  I know who has enough brand ID to beat Republicans consistently, so that's the horse I'm hitching my cart to.  I guess that means that unless there is a transition to multiple viable parties in the US in the future, I'm going to be voting blue, because the Republicans have shown themselves now and it's not a good look.

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Horn Under a Bad Sign

Horn Under a Bad Sign 20343

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Lindsey Graham loses major donor, who will now support Dem. Challenger:


 

Quote
Richard Wilkerson, the former chairman and president of Michelin North America, said in an opinion piece published Sunday in the Greenville News that he supported Graham until 2017 when he "started having real misgivings about him when he failed to mount any significant defense" of the late Republican Sen. John McCain, who President Donald Trump frequently attacked both before his passing in 2018 and after.
 
"I asked myself, 'What is the character of a man who will not defend his best friend? If he won't defend John McCain, why would I expect him to defend any of us in South Carolina?'" Wilkerson wrote of Graham, who is one of Trump's strongest defenders in Congress.
 
He continued: "My conclusion was that he was more interested in currying favor than in honoring the memory of a true American hero whom he had described as his best friend. I was extremely disappointed."




https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/12/politics/lindsey-graham-donor-support-challenger/index.html

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Storm the Field

Storm the Field 5271

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2 hours ago, tx 3 putt said:

AOC will crush him 

You sure about that? The 2018 midterms and 2020 primary have shown fairly convincingly that the left progressive wing of the party is very vocal and extremely online, but doesn't make up anything approaching a majority of Democratic voters.

Ask yourself a question. Who do you think would be more likely to pull Obama/Biden primary voters (especially older African Americans), AOC or the grandson of Bobby Kennedy? I mean, he could only be more of a legacy Dem if his middle name was Delano and his mom's side of the family spent summers at the family estate in Hyde Park. 

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Patrick Bateman

Patrick Bateman 3903

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33 minutes ago, Message Board User said:

 

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World View's long-time investors include Tencent Holdings, a Chinese tech company that operates the WeChat messaging and social media service that is among the world's largest. And like other tech companies in China, it has close working ties to the ruling Communist Party in Beijing.

Tencent has sought to expand its relations with American tech firms, a move that has raised national security concerns that the Chinese government could be surreptitiously gathering information using American technology.

Hartman said that isn't happening, noting the Pentagon’s Defense Counterintelligence Security Agency examined the company last year to ensure its work was secure from foreign interference. The agency cleared World View to handle work for the military.

Tencent has "zero access, zero input and zero control," Hartman said.

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GopherRock

GopherRock 1765

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Also, the cutoff for a special election in North Carolina is September 3. If Burr is forced to resign prior to that, that seat will have a special election on the November ballot. If not, his replacement serves out the rest of the term. 

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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

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1 hour ago, GopherRock said:

Also, the cutoff for a special election in North Carolina is September 3. If Burr is forced to resign prior to that, that seat will have a special election on the November ballot. If not, his replacement serves out the rest of the term. 

The best case scenario might be to just let Burr stay in place and have him hurt the GOP at the polls.

North Carolina is similar to Arizona in that the governor must appoint a replacement of the same party.

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tx 3 putt

tx 3 putt 76352

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2 hours ago, GopherRock said:

Also, the cutoff for a special election in North Carolina is September 3. If Burr is forced to resign prior to that, that seat will have a special election on the November ballot. If not, his replacement serves out the rest of the term. 

R's can't risk that seat on the ballot v Dem gov 

Edited by tx 3 putt
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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13411

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15 minutes ago, Patrick Bateman said:

 

North Carolina isn't going to be an easy pickup for the Dems.  However I'm not sure how to react to a 1 point poll with apparently 19% undecided or unwilling to comment. Who knows where this will end up.

People also have too much on their minds to get too involved in thinking about races that are ~6 months out.

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Patrick Bateman

Patrick Bateman 3903

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17 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

North Carolina isn't going to be an easy pickup for the Dems.  However I'm not sure how to react to a 1 point poll with apparently 19% undecided or unwilling to comment. Who knows where this will end up.

People also have too much on their minds to get too involved in thinking about races that are ~6 months out.

Same poll had Tillis +2 in February with 14% undecided.  I'd probably say not much movement in this particular one other than a few more people peeling off and looking to wait and see.

I don't think it tells us much other than NC is going to be very competitive.

 

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Bateshorn

Bateshorn 9898

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9 minutes ago, Patrick Bateman said:

If folks care about Iowa.... here is the Dem candidate.

Stating the obvious....

 

I suspect Bollier is polling so strong that it's scaring Pompeo off the race.  I don't think he wants to risk losing a Senate race and risking his chance to run as Trump's successor in 2024. Doesn't mean she's leading, but I'd beat money he's done some quiet polling and backed off.

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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

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2 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

North Carolina isn't going to be an easy pickup for the Dems.  However I'm not sure how to react to a 1 point poll with apparently 19% undecided or unwilling to comment. Who knows where this will end up.

People also have too much on their minds to get too involved in thinking about races that are ~6 months out.

Make no mistake about it, this is a bad poll for the incumbent.

 

20% undecided and this thing is tied?  Tillis is a known commodity and the other guy isn’t.  I’d rather be Cunningham right now. The GOP is going to be so fixated on trying to keep trump elected that I think some stuff will fall through the cracks.

Tillis’s seat and the Kansas senate seat could very well be those things.

just gotta hope Pompeo keeps his fat ass out of the race.

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StassneyHorn

StassneyHorn 6538

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They have a jungle primary, so no party primary. One recent poll had both Collins and Loeffler in the 1 and 2, with Lieberman and Warnock 3 and 4.

Im just upset she hasn’t gotten a pejorative Barbie nickname yet ala Wendy Davis. I think BondBarbie would go well with her insider trading history.

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